WI No Belgian Revolution

[David S Poepoe]

I had my interest sparked in a recent article on Avalanche Press' website about the Dutch Army. In a very general sense I'm trying to figure out what would have happened in the 1830s Belgian Revolution had never occured and that the United Kingdom of the Netherlands remained composed of the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg.

Could we knockoff King William I and get the "more progressive and amiable" Prince William on the throne early and keep the whole region happy? Its likely that regional differences will still come to a head in 1848 and the nation will be split.

[EvolvedSaurian]

I've asked this question before.

It didn't turn out well....

[Glen]

I think it sounds interesting and doable...

[HueyLong]

If you ask me, it would turn out better for the Netherlands and Belgium.

[SteveW]

It's an interesting thought. My own guess is that the Kingdom would end up as a Belgium writ-large. However, community tensions would be less as nationalism rises across Europe, as Dutch/Flemish would be in its rightful position, not persecuted as in OTL Belgium in the 19th Century.

[David S Poepoe]

1818 Dutch traders lease the island of Singapura from the Sultan of Johore.

1823 Death of King William I, succeeded by his son, William.

1823-1849 Reign of King William II.

1836 Company of Emigrants (Trekker Maatschappij) constituted.

1838 Boer Republic of Natalia founded with Pietermaritzburg as its capital. Potchefstroom founded.

1840 First Royal Dutch warship visits Port Natal.

1842 The UKN and Natalia enter into a political and economic union.

1845 Founding of Transorangia.

1846 Transorangia enters into union with the Netherlands.

1848 Prince William renounces his claims to the throne in favor of his younger brother Henry.

1849 Death of King William II, succeeded by his son, Henry

1849-1879 Reign of King Henry.

1852 Declaration of the Holland-African Republic, to be renamed Transvaal the following year.

1870 Congo colonization begun under the auspices of King Henry.

1883 Eruption of Krakatau.

1879 Death of King Henry, succeeded by his nephew Alexander.

1879-1884 Reign of King Alexander

1882 Founding of Republic of Stellaland.

1884 Death of Alexander, succeeded by his father William. After several inquires naval officials move the base of operations for the Dutch East Indies Squadron from Batavia to Singapura.

1885 Berlin Conference and the division of Africa. Stellaland annexed to Dutch South Africa.

1884-1890 Reign of King William III

1890 Death of King William III, succeeded by his daughter Wilhelmina. Birth of Anthony Fokker in Kediri, Java, DEI.

1890-1948 Reign of Queen Wilhelmina. Regency of Queen Emma 1890-1898.

1895-1896 The Jameson Raid and the Anglo-Dutch South African Crisis.

1912 The Dutch Army purchases its first aircraft from Fokker.

[kelumden]

It's an interesting thought. My own guess is that the Kingdom would end up as a Belgium writ-large. However, community tensions would be less as nationalism rises across Europe, as Dutch/Flemish would be in its rightful position, not persecuted as in OTL Belgium in the 19th Century.

Flemish were not persecuted as you thing. What happened is that the nobility was french-speaking just like in other countries (Russia is one example I think off). Walloons were as badly treated in this way as Flemish were as they too didn't speak French but Walloon, a romance dialect.

The so-called persecution is more an invention of right-wing politicians to bolster nationalist ideas (my 2 cents).

In a greater Kingdom of Netherlands, we may see Walloons having aspiration to autonomy and eventually independance.

[kelumden]

I had my interest sparked in a recent article on Avalanche Press' website about the Dutch Army. In a very general sense I'm trying to figure out what would have happened in the 1830s Belgian Revolution had never occured and that the United Kingdom of the Netherlands remained composed of the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg.

Could we knockoff King William I and get the "more progressive and amiable" Prince William on the throne early and keep the whole region happy? Its likely that regional differences will still come to a head in 1848 and the nation will be split.

An alternative :) would be for the revolution to be repressed with more power.

Regardless of the way it occurs, OTL 1848 revolutions did not occur in Belgium. With a more strict government and remaining ressentiments against the Dutch, 1848 can see a (second) revolution occuring in Belgium. It will end in more repression of the southern inhabitants of the country (Flemish and Walloons alike).

[David S Poepoe]

An alternative :) would be for the revolution to be repressed with more power.

That is a possibility, and I'm exploring a mix of a more efficiently suppressed rebellion and liberal reforms. Thats one reason I'm offing William I much earlier. The 'national' capital will be Brussels and eventually some sort of federal system of representation with come into effect.

[kelumden]

1848 Prince William renounces his claims to the throne in favor of his younger brother Henry.
...
1870 Congo colonization begun under the auspices of King Henry.
...
1885 Berlin Conference and the division of Africa. Stellaland annexed to Dutch South Africa.

1848: The wave of revolutions shaking Europe reaches the South of Netherlands. Liege declares its independance as the Republic of Liege, but the Dutch army retakes the city after three weeks of combat. Elsewhere in Belgium, there are many aborted tentatives.

1870: I don't think the Dutch will colonize Congo. They are busy with Natal and the Dutch East India. They do not need a staging station at this point in history. In fact, Cape Colony was acquired in 1814 by the United Kingdom. UK is the prime candidate to the colonization of the western part of Congo (RDC) in order to build a junction North-South, from Egypt to Cape Colony.

1885: UK will acquire the western part of OTL Congo (Great Lakes and Katanga), while Portugal and France colonize the rest of the country.

[Archdevil]

Flemish were not persecuted as you thing. What happened is that the nobility was french-speaking just like in other countries (Russia is one example I think off). Walloons were as badly treated in this way as Flemish were as they too didn't speak French but Walloon, a romance dialect.
French was even the language of the royal house in Holland untill William III married princess Emma, who wanted to learn Dutch, so finally the court language was finally changed to Dutch. The difference here is that French was made the official language in Belgium, even while it was the language of a minority.

The so-called persecution is more an invention of right-wing politicians to bolster nationalist ideas (my 2 cents).
The facty that it took untill after WWII (1960's) before the two languages in Belgium achieved equal rights says otherwise. Even though about 60% of Belgium is Flemish (Dutch speaking).

In a greater Kingdom of Netherlands, we may see Walloons having aspiration to autonomy and eventually independance.
Probably, and Napoleon III would be an excellent candidate for outside support. He tried to annex the French (Walloon) parts of Belgium during the 1860's.

[SteveW]

[quote=Archdevil]

The facty that it took untill after WWII (1960's) before the two languages in Belgium achieved equal rights says otherwise. Even though about 60% of Belgium is Flemish (Dutch speaking).

[quote]

It was 1960 itself in fact, when the Belgian Civil Code was finally translated into Flemish.

Kelmuden, you are correct on Walloon- it still suffers a certain stigma. But nonetheless, until a certain year (Benedict XVII, any idea?), Flemings were at the least not entitled to be tried in their own language.

[SteveW]

@ David: Do you foresee this larger Netherlands annexing minor German principalities at some point?

[David S Poepoe]

@ David: Do you foresee this larger Netherlands annexing minor German principalities at some point?

No. You know there are certain roads Alternative Historians usually take whenever working on an ATL. There are the usual cliches, but no Dutch zeppelins. Right now I'm stewing over Dutch battleships! I'm not involving the Dutch in European affairs, at least right now, perhaps as my research goes things will change.

Basically, I'm working along a simple premise that whatever the Benelux nations did individually, the Super-Dutch will do. That is one reason why there is the Dutch Congo in TTL. While I can't find much in english about his Prince Hendrik the Navigator, William III's younger brother, is going to be the one that drives the Netherlands to expand overseas. The Dutch Congo will be acquired first to provide a stopping point on the way to the Dutch South Africa. While the Boer and Dutch don't entirely outmanuver the British in expanding into the interior, they do get the gold and diamonds - which I think will be necessary to help fill Dutch coffers.

European history pretty much unfolds as OTL, tho the Netherlands will be on the side of the Allies in both World Wars. It will be the Dutch colony of Singapura that holds out against the on slaught of Japanese attacks.

[pompejus]

I was wondering if the change of king william II from conservative to liberal happened. In 1848 OTL he changed the netherlands from a absolute monarchy to a (at first limited) democracy to prevent riots like those that happened in other coutries. If this would happen it would ease tension between dutch and belgian people. It would also increes the political power of the catholics during columnisation (or at least decrease the political power of the the protestant faction, the belgians probably would be as liberal or socialist as the dutch) (if columnisation would still happen and not be butterflied away)

btw if this larger netherlands enters (willingly or not) the side of the allies during the world wars the principalities stevew is speaking about could be annexed after the wars

[David S Poepoe]

btw if this larger netherlands enters (willingly or not) the side of the allies during the world wars the principalities stevew is speaking about could be annexed after the wars

Taking a look at my atlas I don't see any 'minor German principalities' that the Netherlands would annex - unless it will just create another Sudetenland situation. Also I see such territorial expansion as strictly 19th century and would be extremely hard to convince Woodrow Wilson to go along with.

William II's liberalism may have occurred overnight in 1848, but at least from what I've read so far he did have a more liberal lean to his beliefs in general when compared to his father. Undoubtedly some sort of unifying constitution will have to be in place in order for Wilhelmina to succeed to the throne in 1890 and not lose Luxembourg.

[pompejus]

Taking a look at my atlas I don't see any 'minor German principalities' that the Netherlands would annex - unless it will just create another Sudetenland situation. Also I see such territorial expansion as strictly 19th century and would be extremely hard to convince Woodrow Wilson to go along with.


I was thinking about getting some german territory after ww1 like belgian did after otl ww1, but i must admit that at that point they aren't realy principalities anymore

[benedict XVII]

I was thinking about getting some german territory after ww1 like belgian did after otl ww1, but i must admit that at that point they aren't realy principalities anymore

I could imagine an annexation of Prussian Guelders which was taken away from the Dutch in 1914. Another possibility is to recoup the Eastern thirs of the Duchy of Luxembourg which was also lost to Prussia in Vienna (Eupen which was restored to Belgium at Versailles actually belonged to Prussian Luxembourg).

[Max Sinister]

Sorry, benedict - which Prussian Guelders? And why from the Dutch, and in 1914? I know Luxembourg once was bigger, but what is it with Guelders?

[benedict XVII]

The Belgian Revolution in 1830 was not a fatality. Belgians were not overaly enthusiastic at forming a United Kingdom with The Netherlands in 1814, but its elite went into it with the idea of trying to make it work.

The United Kingdom could have lasted under some conditions: more liberal policies by King William I (i.e. accept ministerial responsibility), not interfering with the Catholic church - esp. in the area of education, having a more balanced policy for nomnations in the high ranks of the administration (which OTL were outrageously in favor of the Dutch). His economic policies were otherwise much appreaciatd by the nascent Belgian capitalist elite, and he had a lot of support in cities like Antwerp, Ghent, Liège, Verviers, etc. Even after the September days in Brussels, he could have kept the Kingdom together if he had accpeted administrative separation and putting his son in charge of the Southern provinces. Instead he ordered the bombing of Antwerp, and then differences became irreconcilable.

It is possible that incidents could occur in the Southern part of the country in 1848, but I doubt a national revolt.

It is also true that the center of gravity of the Kingdom would have inevitably moved towards Belgium, for demographic and economic reasons.

Regarding the status of Flemings, it is clear that Flemish-speakers only progressively got equal status as French. Formal equality between the two languages was achieved in 1905 IIRC. Am surprised about the story of Civil Code being translated only in the 1960's. In any case, even if this were true, justice had been in Flemish in Flanders long before. Local civil justice (called justice de paix in French) could be rendered in Flemish all the time. It is for intermediate and higher vourts and for penal law the things were more gradual. Same for education. Flemish-speakers were objectively discriminated for most of the 19th century and early 20th century, though the practical consequences of this discrimination are, in my view, much exaggerated by a certain streak of Flemish nationalists.

One thing to realize is that th language distinction was more of a social distinction than one between North and South. The nobility and higher bourgeoisie spoke French in both parts of the country. In the South, the popular language ws still mostly Walloon at the time of independence. Migration towards French was easier in Wallonia, due to linguistic proximity, non-existing literary standards (which somehow existed for Dutch/Flemish), and lack of historical conscience (the corresponding territories having never constituted a hoùogeneous political entity as the county of Flanders could seem to be).

[Archdevil]

Sorry, benedict - which Prussian Guelders? And why from the Dutch, and in 1914? I know Luxembourg once was bigger, but what is it with Guelders?
I think he means 1713, at the peace of Utrecht, the then Spanish part of Gelre was devided by the Republic and Prussia.

Guelders before 1814 consisted of 4 parts, the four quarters:
Arnhem (Veluwe), Nijmegen (Betuwe), Zutphen (Achterhoek), Roermond (Upper Gelre). Gelre at Wikipedia with map. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guelders)

Upper Gelre was partly made Prussian. During the congress of Vienna some other decisions were made that resulted in Dutch towns ending up in Prussia (later Germany) and vice versa. Herzogenrath is a nice example.

[SteveW]

At the very least, this stronger Netherlands would get Moresnet, which was independent from 1815 until 1919. Despite having spent a year near there, I've forgotten what they mined there (the reason for it's independence). As someone suggested, that would then imply the annexation of Malmedy at some point, in the event of Prussia/Germany losing a war.

[benedict XVII]

At the very least, this stronger Netherlands would get Moresnet, which was independent from 1815 until 1919. Despite having spent a year near there, I've forgotten what they mined there (the reason for it's independence). As someone suggested, that would then imply the annexation of Malmedy at some point, in the event of Prussia/Germany losing a war.

Moresnet was not independent, but co-administered. They had zinc over there.