Franz Ferdinand escapes assassination!

[Glen]

June 28, 1914 -

Today, Archduke Franz Ferdinand escaped an assassination attempt in Sarajevo. The attempt was made while the Archduke and his wife were travelling in their car. Officials are investigating the incident. Both the Archduke and his wife escaped harm.

[Nicole]

If I recall, the Archduke was actually a very strong force in the Austrian government against war with Serbia... his death allowed the hawks to push through the war.

[Franz Josef II]

I would expect a very harsh telegram sent to Belgrade demanding they crack down on Black Hand...in this case as a follow up probably they will appeal to the Powers to help them bring Serbia to heal. Not too sure what Russia will do in this case. However, Germany's support is even more assured in this case, I would say, because unless I am mistaken Archduke Ferdinand and the Kaiser were very friendly.

[CalBear]

The Archduke was radically different than his Uncle. While he was, by most accounts, not the brightest star in the heavens, he was very much in favor of increasing freedoms (within limits) throughout Austria/Hungary's empire.

He was, ironically, probably the best friend the Serbians had in all of Europe west of St. Petersburg.

In the end, the entire tragedy of WW I would still have happened befor 1920. Too much dry wood had been piled up to avoid the eventual fire.

[Chengar Qordath]

As I recall, part of the reason the Black Hand targetted him was that he was in favour of reforming the Empire to better accomodate Slavs, which might well have killed their dream of creating a Greater Serbia.

[Glen]

June 29 - Austria-Hungary: Secretary of the Legation at Belgrade sends despatch to Vienna suggesting Serbian complicity in the crime of Sarajevo. This information is held confidential at the specific request of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, who wants to avoid inciting ethnic conflict if possible.

[Franz Josef II]

So...no WWI, which would be good for all involved. I think in the following years a naval treaty between Germany and Britain would be a possibility, thereby getting rid of the only serious tension between those two countries. Hard to say what is likely to happen in the Balkans or how relations with Russia and Germany/Austria will play out.

[Wendell]

One wonders what will become of the various colonial empires ITTL. Who might Germany's Chancellors be after 1914 in this scenario?

[Glen]

So...no WWI, which would be good for all involved. I think in the following years a naval treaty between Germany and Britain would be a possibility, thereby getting rid of the only serious tension between those two countries. Hard to say what is likely to happen in the Balkans or how relations with Russia and Germany/Austria will play out.

Well, that's going to be a bit difficult with KWII still heading the German Empire....

[Glen]

One wonders what will become of the various colonial empires ITTL.

Always a good question. Let's just see where this goes...

Who might Germany's Chancellors be after 1914 in this scenario?

Good question. Believe it or not, we might see some Social Democrats...

[Glen]

1916 - With the death of Emperor Franz Josef, Franz Ferdinand ascends to the throne of the Empire of Austria.

His early rule is marked by controversy as he pushes through Universal Male Suffrage and begins plans for a Triple Crown; the creation of a third, Slavic, Kingdom within the Empire.

His desire to build up the Navy also puts strains on Austria's relations with Italy.

[Strategos' Risk]

Might he pull a Harry Truman and actually grant concessions to the people who just tried to kill him?

[Glen]

Might he pull a Harry Truman and actually grant concessions to the people who just tried to kill him?

As a matter of fact, yes.

[stevep]

As a matter of fact, yes.

Possibly more accurate to say concessions to the people that the people who tried to kill him claim to be fighting for. Might well be a good way to isolate the Serbs from the Slavs inside the empire.

Universal male sufferance is going to cause real unrest in Hungary however. From what I have read there was a very restricted franchise and the Hungarian aristocrats were riding roughshod over everybody. Think I remember reading that once France Joseph threaten to do that to undermine their power base.

Steve

[Gladi]

Possibly more accurate to say concessions to the people that the people who tried to kill him claim to be fighting for. Might well be a good way to isolate the Serbs from the Slavs inside the empire.

Universal male sufferance is going to cause real unrest in Hungary however. From what I have read there was a very restricted franchise and the Hungarian aristocrats were riding roughshod over everybody. Think I remember reading that once France Joseph threaten to do that to undermine their power base.

Steve

Bright day
Universal suffrage is old news.

[Glen]

Possibly more accurate to say concessions to the people that the people who tried to kill him claim to be fighting for. Might well be a good way to isolate the Serbs from the Slavs inside the empire.

That was apparently Franz Ferdinand's thinking.

Universal male sufferance is going to cause real unrest in Hungary however. From what I have read there was a very restricted franchise and the Hungarian aristocrats were riding roughshod over everybody. Think I remember reading that once France Joseph threaten to do that to undermine their power base.

Steve

I believe that also was in mind of Franz Ferdinand from the little I could glean...

[Glen]

Bright day
Universal suffrage is old news.

In what respect, Gladi?

[Gladi]

In what respect, Gladi?

The obvious one, Cis-Leithanien- 1907. Trans-Leithenien could not hold out for much longer, many hungarians were disfranchised too you know.

[Glen]

The obvious one, Cis-Leithanien- 1907. Trans-Leithenien could not hold out for much longer, many hungarians were disfranchised too you know.

And when did Universal Suffrage become empire-wide IOTL?

[Gladi]

And when did Universal Suffrage become empire-wide IOTL?

Dunno, though even if it was not in place by 1918, socialists would force it sooner or later, they needed it get power.

[Glen]

Dunno, though even if it was not in place by 1918, socialists would force it sooner or later, they needed it get power.

Well, the thing is, it was stated as a controversial position of the Archduke, ITTL Emperor. That's what makes it relevant. He didn't invent the idea, just promoted it...

[Gladi]

Well, the thing is, it was stated as a controversial position of the Archduke, ITTL Emperor. That's what makes it relevant. He didn't invent the idea, just promoted it...


Yeah but if Hungarian nobility tries to block him on this, they will riots in streets.

[Glen]

Yeah but if Hungarian nobility tries to block him on this, they will riots in streets.

So, you think it passes, which further undermines Hungarian nobles' control, and should assist in the formation of a triple monarchy?

[Glen]

1919 - Tsar Nicholas II of Russia dies, making 15 year old Alexei the next Tsar of Russia. A regency is declared under his uncle, Grand Duke Michael.

1921 - Alexei of Russia dies in an auto accident, bleeding to death from his hemophilia. There are dark rumors that the boy Tsar was murdered by his uncle and regent, Grand Duke Michael, but no evidence of this is ever discovered. Michael becomes Tsar of Russia. Beginnings of mild democratic reforms in the Russian Empire.

1923 - Emperor Franz Ferdinand of the triple monarchy dies. Emperor Karl I is crowned in this year. During the 1920s, relations between Austria and Germany become increasingly strained as Emperor Karl favors improved relations with the powers in the Entente and is better at it than the socially clumsy Wilhelm II of Germany.

1928 - Tsar Michael dies. Grand Duke Cyril becomes the new Tsar. More and more power begins to rest with the Tsar's ministers.

1932 - Emperor Karl I dies, leaving his 20 year old son as Emperor of a now federated Empire, one of the changes pushed through by his father, Karl.

1934 - The German Crown Prince's eldest son, Wilhelm, renounces his claim to the throne in order to marry a commoner.

1938 - Tsar Cyril dies, making his son Grand Duke Vladimir the new Tsar of Russia.

1941 - Kaiser Wilhelm II dies, making his son the new Emperor of Germany, Kaiser Wilhelm III.

1951 - Kaiser Wilhelm III dies, making his second son Louis Ferdinand, the new Kaiser of Germany.

[luakel]

When will Wilhelm II die, and what's going on at this point in Russia? Any hints of revolution there?

[Glen]

When will Wilhelm II die, and what's going on at this point in Russia? Any hints of revolution there?

He will die in 1941, on schedule.

Good question about Russia...lets see....

[Glen]

1919 - Tsar Nicholas II of Russia dies, making 15 year old Alexei the next Tsar of Russia. A regency is declared under his uncle, Grand Duke Michael.

1921 - Alexei of Russia dies in an auto accident, bleeding to death from his hemophilia. There are dark rumors that the boy Tsar was murdered by his uncle and regent, Grand Duke Michael, but no evidence of this is ever discovered. Michael becomes Tsar of Russia. Beginnings of mild democratic reforms in the Russian Empire.

1923 - Emperor Franz Ferdinand of the triple monarchy dies. Emperor Karl I is crowned in this year. During the 1920s, relations between Austria and Germany become increasingly strained as Emperor Karl favors improved relations with the powers in the Entente and is better at it than the socially clumsy Wilhelm II of Germany.

1928 - Tsar Michael dies. Grand Duke Cyril becomes the new Tsar. More and more power begins to rest with the Tsar's ministers.

1932 - Emperor Karl I dies, leaving his 20 year old son as Emperor of a now federated Empire, one of the changes pushed through by his father, Karl.

1934 - The German Crown Prince's eldest son, Wilhelm, renounces his claim to the throne in order to marry a commoner.

1938 - Tsar Cyril dies, making his son Grand Duke Vladimir the new Tsar of Russia.

1941 - Kaiser Wilhelm II dies, making his son the new Emperor of Germany, Kaiser Wilhelm III.

1951 - Kaiser Wilhelm III dies, making his second son Louis Ferdinand, the new Kaiser of Germany.

Updated this a bit.

Where possible, I have used more or less OTL years for deaths, but where applicable I have changed them to be similar to the lifespans of the person's parents.

[Glen]

Okay, I've got a question...

In a timeline with no Franz Ferdinand assassination, and no WWI, when Franz Ferdinand inherits the Empire in 1916 (assume Franz Joseph dies on schedule), what happens?

Franz Ferdinand will want some reforms, which the Hungarians resist...

I see about four main possibilities -

1) Franz Ferdinand wins out in his support for some reforms of the Empire, including a triple monarchy and universal suffrage. The reformed Hapsburg Empire (whatever you want to call it) continues forward, with better conditions over time.

2) Franz Ferdinand's attempts to foster reform are mosly frustrated. The old Dual Monarchy wheezes along as is.

3) The Hungarians, either with the death of Franz Joseph, or a decade later of Franz Ferdinand, demand a dissolution of the Dual Monarchy and we get two separate kingdoms, but peacefully.

4) Civil War breaks out in Austria-Hungary sometime after the death of Franz Joseph. Don't really know why its triggered, maybe by the dual stresses of Slavic and Hungarian nationalism?

[Glen]

By the early 1940s, we would have in place some long-lived heirs to the thrones of Europe ITTL.

Assuming no World War breaks out...

[The Sandman]

I suppose my big questions would be regarding Asia (especially Japan and China) and Ireland (without WWI to delay the Home Rule issue). What happens there?

And does the Ottoman Empire survive, or does it become the target du jour for all of its neighbors? (Again)

[Max Sinister]

@Glen: Well, it depends whether the other responsibles in A-H are smart or not. If they are, the Hungarians will give up Croatia, and with three people in charge the state (we could call it A-H-Y, Y for Yugoslavia) becomes more stable - although politics become more complicated too, if three people in charge all have their interests. And there's one big difference between "making the Hungarians second partner" and "making the Yugoslavians third partner": There was no independent Hungary next to Austria in 1867. But there'd still be an independent Serbia and Montenegro around, so what does that mean?
If the people in charge won't give in, somewhen we might see a big Serbian rebellion, and A-H will have to give up Bos-Herc or even more (you remember from the Yugoslavian war that there lived many Serbians in Krajina and Dalmatia). Maybe the Croatians from Bosnia go to A-H and the Serbians from Croatia to Serbia, that might help a bit.

[Glen]

I suppose my big questions would be regarding Asia (especially Japan and China)

Seems likely that things will devolve further in China, doesn't it?

With the Great Powers not embroiled in a European War, those proposed spheres of influence may solidify into something more.

and Ireland (without WWI to delay the Home Rule issue). What happens there?

Good question. Probably Home Rule and an undistracted Britain minimizes some of the independence movement, but it still seems likely. You want to write up what's happening in Ireland?

And does the Ottoman Empire survive, or does it become the target du jour for all of its neighbors? (Again)

Probably a target du jour for all neighbors (again). Just much slower and more agonizing, with differences in who gets what...

[Glen]

@Glen: Well, it depends whether the other responsibles in A-H are smart or not. If they are, the Hungarians will give up Croatia,

That will be a hard sell. Maybe they keep some form of corridor to the sea?

and with three people in charge the state (we could call it A-H-Y, Y for Yugoslavia)

Wouldn't be three people - would be three legislatures/ministries, but the Emperor would still be head of government for all.

Would more likely be called Austria-Hungary-Slavonia.

becomes more stable - although politics become more complicated too, if three people in charge all have their interests.

Yeah.

And there's one big difference between "making the Hungarians second partner" and "making the Yugoslavians third partner": There was no independent Hungary next to Austria in 1867. But there'd still be an independent Serbia and Montenegro around, so what does that mean?

Trouble. Especially if Russia keeps mucking about. Then again, it also means less justification of claims of 'Slavic Oppression'.


If the people in charge won't give in, somewhen we might see a big Serbian rebellion, and A-H will have to give up Bos-Herc or even more (you remember from the Yugoslavian war that there lived many Serbians in Krajina and Dalmatia). Maybe the Croatians from Bosnia go to A-H and the Serbians from Croatia to Serbia, that might help a bit.

Hmmm...that's a possibility, though I don't think Serbia could pull it off. IOTL, Serbia got steamrolled by AH in WWI. And any war between them would have the potential of bringing in the Russians. So it would become WWI delayed.

But with more rights for Slavs, the likelihood of a Slavic rebellion goes down as well.

[Max Sinister]

Nah, more the opposite at the beginning - as you remember, there was the affair with Oberst Redl, who was blackmailed 'cause of his homosexuality, and gave the Allies essentially all they could know about the CPs' troops. When A-H attacked Serbia in 1914, 270k of their 450k soldiers died (and the Serbs only had 170k men to begin with!). Germany had to send troops to crush Serbia in 1916.

[Glen]

Nah, more the opposite at the beginning - as you remember, there was the affair with Oberst Redl, who was blackmailed 'cause of his homosexuality, and gave the Allies essentially all they could know about the CPs' troops. When A-H attacked Serbia in 1914, 270k of their 450k soldiers died (and the Serbs only had 170k men to begin with!). Germany had to send troops to crush Serbia in 1916.

Is that right?

Well, so are you suggesting a limited war between AH and Serbia could happen and could benefit Serbia?

Keeping other Great Powers out of it would be good.

Then again, if that's what would happen...

Of course, the other question is whether there would be any such war in the first place.

[Max Sinister]

I'm not sure a limited war with Serbia could happen. Even if it starts that way - if the Austrians are defeated, they might keep on fighting so they won't have to admit they lost against such a small country, and as long as the alliances are there, war could easily grow into WW1, just some years later than IOTL.

[Glen]

I'm not sure a limited war with Serbia could happen. Even if it starts that way - if the Austrians are defeated, they might keep on fighting so they won't have to admit they lost against such a small country, and as long as the alliances are there, war could easily grow into WW1, just some years later than IOTL.

You're probably right.

Probably depends on what happens with Franz Ferdinand's proposed reforms.

[Glen]

Okay, I've got a question...

In a timeline with no Franz Ferdinand assassination, and no WWI, when Franz Ferdinand inherits the Empire in 1916 (assume Franz Joseph dies on schedule), what happens?

Franz Ferdinand will want some reforms, which the Hungarians resist...

I see about four main possibilities -

1) Franz Ferdinand wins out in his support for some reforms of the Empire, including a triple monarchy and universal suffrage. The reformed Hapsburg Empire (whatever you want to call it) continues forward, with better conditions over time.

2) Franz Ferdinand's attempts to foster reform are mosly frustrated. The old Dual Monarchy wheezes along as is.

3) The Hungarians, either with the death of Franz Joseph, or a decade later of Franz Ferdinand, demand a dissolution of the Dual Monarchy and we get two separate kingdoms, but peacefully.

4) Civil War breaks out in Austria-Hungary sometime after the death of Franz Joseph. Don't really know why its triggered, maybe by the dual stresses of Slavic and Hungarian nationalism?

Any comments on these options? I might have to turn it into a poll....

[Franz Josef II]

Yeah but if Hungarian nobility tries to block him on this, they will riots in streets.

If the Hungarian nobility try to block him and 'riot in the streets' then FF will grant universal male sufferage to all the inhabitants of Hungary. Bang. No more 'greater Hungary' since the majority of Transylvania and the Banat are Romanian/Slav respectively and the union with Croatia - Slavonia will probably be dissolved, Croatia being restored to its own province as it was prior to 1867.

Now, a benefit to a civil war with Hungary is that the Austrian leadership will have a greater idea of the weakness of the military, no doubt sparking a major overhaul. FF was already aware of this problem.

[Glen]

If the Hungarian nobility try to block him and 'riot in the streets' then FF will grant universal male sufferage to all the inhabitants of Hungary. Bang. No more 'greater Hungary' since the majority of Transylvania and the Banat are Romanian/Slav respectively and the union with Croatia - Slavonia will probably be dissolved, Croatia being restored to its own province as it was prior to 1867.

So the Universal Suffrage as a bludgeon for the Triple Crown?

Now, a benefit to a civil war with Hungary is that the Austrian leadership will have a greater idea of the weakness of the military, no doubt sparking a major overhaul. FF was already aware of this problem.

True, true.

But what is the most LIKELY thing to happen?

[Kabraloth]

I think they would try to break away, AH was already very very shaky due to the constant Ausgleich and they knew it (and were always pressing for more), imho they were already preparing to break away. I think first, many high-ranking Hungarians would resign, then they would try to assassinate FF, if that does not work, open revolt. They might possibly try to crown one of their own as King of Hungary.

Then civil war happens, FF knocks them all down à la Garland (no doubt with help from the Slavs). BAMF, universal suffrage, the Hungarian supremacy is broken and the Habsburg Empire is much less fragile.

[Glen]

I think they would try to break away, AH was already very very shaky due to the constant Ausgleich and they knew it (and were always pressing for more), imho they were already preparing to break away. I think first, many high-ranking Hungarians would resign, then they would try to assassinate FF, if that does not work, open revolt. They might possibly try to crown one of their own as King of Hungary.

Then civil war happens, FF knocks them all down à la Garland (no doubt with help from the Slavs). BAMF, universal suffrage, the Hungarian supremacy is broken and the Habsburg Empire is much less fragile.

So...you vote for Hungarian uprising, but unsuccessful.

Got it!

[Glen]

Bump Bump Bump

[joea64]

Bump Bump Bump

Good thing you bumped. I do wonder about the date you posited for FF's hypothetical death as Kaiser, though. He would have been only 60 at the time (he was 51 when he got shot OTL), and from my reading he didn't live in a particularly dissolute way, though he did like his cigars and was an asthma sufferer. His daughter Sophie lived to reach 89. His sons died fairly young, in their 60's, but one could argue that their lifespans had been shortened by their hardships (they spent some time in Dachau because of their opposition to the Nazi takeover of Austria).

Granted that FF had a nasty bout with illness in his youth, but he exerted a tremendous amount of willpower and self-discipline to recover and became quite athletic, being especially fond of tennis (there's a photo of him with a young Sophie on the tennis courts of the estate where she was serving the Archduchess Isabella as lady-in-waiting at the time). I think, having waited so long to ascend the throne, he'd have found the willpower to stick it out to the biblical threescore-and-ten or a bit more.

-Joe-

[Glen]

Good thing you bumped. I do wonder about the date you posited for FF's hypothetical death as Kaiser, though. He would have been only 60 at the time (he was 51 when he got shot OTL), and from my reading he didn't live in a particularly dissolute way, though he did like his cigars and was an asthma sufferer. His daughter Sophie lived to reach 89. His sons died fairly young, in their 60's, but one could argue that their lifespans had been shortened by their hardships (they spent some time in Dachau because of their opposition to the Nazi takeover of Austria).

Granted that FF had a nasty bout with illness in his youth, but he exerted a tremendous amount of willpower and self-discipline to recover and became quite athletic, being especially fond of tennis (there's a photo of him with a young Sophie on the tennis courts of the estate where she was serving the Archduchess Isabella as lady-in-waiting at the time). I think, having waited so long to ascend the throne, he'd have found the willpower to stick it out to the biblical threescore-and-ten or a bit more.

-Joe-


IIRC I based the estimate on the lifespan of his parents.

[Glen]

Here's a bit luckier Franz Ferdinand timeline discussion. Sounds like he'd be able to shove through reform.

Wonder if/when we see a WWI here, and if so what triggers it....

[wiking]

FF would give the AH empire its best chance of survival. The only unresolved issue would be the Czechs, which would be that much more frustrated now that all the other Slavs are taken care of (Poles have free reign in Galicia and Southern Slavs have their crown). The Hungarian nobility would riot and a surprisingly large number of the peasantry would support them. However, as a minority in their own country and the Southern Slavs now with a vested interest in the Austrians succeeding, the civil war/revolt is not likely to lead anywhere. And the outside powers (minus Serbia, who really doesn't count) are going to want to support stability in the region, especially Germany, but also Russia, as the Slavs are being given much more independence in the Austrian system. The Romanians might actually join in on suppressing the Hungarians too, as they were allied with the Austrians and probably are hoping for a reward for their help.

As to the Serbs starting a war over the issue, well, there is too much to go into that I don't have the time nor will to plow through. Mainly the argument against it hinges on the Serbian army's own calculations of not being ready for a war for 10 years, because of their ammunition shortage thanks to the war they literally just finished fighting, not to mention that they are still absorbing their rebellious new territories. Also the post-facto knowledge of Serbian fighting skill was not known at the time and a major surprise to everyone, including the Serbs. If they pick the fight by declaring war, they are not going to do nearly as well, as the Russians cannot support them without losing out diplomatically.

Now, as for the AH-S empire...they are not going to be in the fittest fiddle, but the Army is going to get a major boost. FF is primarily interested in expanding and modernizing the military (he was the inspector general after all and instrumental in getting Conrad into power-who was a fine reformer, though less than adequate as a field commander). The Habsburg empire will be much more managable, though not in all situations. Decentralization will be the name of the game, but with a much more middle class centered Hungary. War might not happen at all, but I doubt the Habsburgs could or would ditch Germany. They were too dependent on the Germans for economic and trade reasons to abandon their treaties. Italy would switch camps shortly, which changes Germany's calculations on things significantly and make their starting of any general war in Europe unthinkable.

I would be very curious to see how Russia ends up ITTL. They might not make it through Nicholas' reign without another major insurrection.

[Greenlanterncorps]

1923 - Emperor Franz Ferdinand of the triple monarchy dies. Emperor Karl I is crowned in this year. During the 1920s, relations between Austria and Germany become increasingly strained as Emperor Karl favors improved relations with the powers in the Entente and is better at it than the socially clumsy Wilhelm II of Germany.

I'm not sure Karl makes it to the throne. I've always been convinced that one of Franz Ferdinand's first acts after becoming Emperor would have been to make his marriage dynastic and make Sophie the Empress.

Given that he is going to upset the apple cart already, making his sons heirs to his throne is hardly going to make things worse.

[Glen]

The German Empire for one will survive in this TL. As a result the Social Democrats will begin moderate democratic reforms in Germany shutting up both the Communists and the Reactionaries.

That's possible, but how do you muzzle Wilhelm II?

There might be something like World War I later on but it might be less bloody and bitter.

Why less?

Russia might go fascist so might France and Italy in this alt-WWI.

Well, anything is possible. But why do you see this happening due to this POD?

There would be perhaps a WW2 rematch but if Germany and Austria (and it's new allies Poland, Ukraine, and some other nations) win that one we might see a German dominated European Union. Overall a better world.

Why do you assume CP victories? And why does that lead to a better world?

[Glen]

The Social Democrats already was the largest party in the Reichstang on the eve of war and Germany was liberalizing.

Agreed, and good point, but Wilhelm II is likely to interfere, and is also likely to get them in a war at some point the way he shoots off his mouth....

The war might be more mobile.

Maybe, depends in part on how long a World War is delayed.

Russia and France might lose this alt-World War I.

Might, yes, but does that necessarily follow from a delay in World War One, or from Franz Ferdinand being in control of Austria-Hungary?

Britain may not decide to participate in World War I (it almost didn't OTL)

True, but does it necessarily follow from a delayed WWI or Franz Ferdinand leading A-H? The big thing that pushed Britain over the edge I believe was the invasion of neutral nations by the CP. That would probably still happen in a delayed WWI.

and Wilhelmine Germany was far better than the Third Reich or the USSR.

Yes, that's true.