The Race arrives in 1952

[Thande]

So what if the Lizards' bureaucracy takes another 20 of their years (10 of ours) - of course a mere eyeblink as far as they are concerned, not that their eyes blink - anyway -

WI the colonisation fleet arrives around May/June 1952 rather than 1942?

Plus points (for humans) :
U.S. and USSR have nukes, albeit not many, and a means of delivering them. Britain would have its first atomic bomb within a few months (Operation Hurricane).
Tanks and other war technology are better now than they were in 1942

Minus points:
Armies aren't already mobilised
Still recovering from losses of WW2
No powerful Germany or Japan

So, assuming the Race still proceed as per the original TL, what happens now? Do the humans do better? What do you think the outcome would be?



(NB, I would have put this in the main Race thread, but this is not a divergence within the events of the books, but one prior to it...)

[Evil Opus]

What I often wonder about is what would have happened if Atvar had waited those extra 20 years for contact with the emperor...then invaded in 1962.

[Thande]

What I often wonder about is what would have happened if Atvar had waited those extra 20 years for contact with the emperor...then invaded in 1962.
Well, while that scenario also has its interesting side, I like this one because 1) Britain is still thought of as a superpower, 2) there are very few nukes, so Atvar is unlikely to turn tail or try nuking the Earth from orbit, as he might later on, and conventional warfare will still be an important factor (a la DROPSHOT).

[GBW]

2) there are very few nukes, so Atvar is unlikely to turn tail or try nuking the Earth from orbit, as he might later on, and conventional warfare will still be an important factor (a la DROPSHOT).
That's intriguing, actually. If the Conquest Fleet arrives knowing that there are nukes, might they follow a MAD principle? The Race might decide not to use them in the initial invasion and warn the Tosevites that their using nuclear weapons will prompt an immediate retaliation. Would anyone dare to try and nuke the Race?

Not many weapons are being produced at this point in comparison to the full-geared mobilization during WWII. In fact, the only major conflict at this point, the Korean War, is being fought with a lot of surplus equipment from the previous war. In fact, what are all those UN troops in Korea going to do when all their home countries are being attacked and they're in East Asia? Will there be any assistance to the Red Chinese who will face an immediate landing in Manchuria just north of Korea?

In the original Worldwar, there was a race to develop atomic bombs. Might there be an accelerated space race here? The first country to launch a rocket that can reach the Race starships in orbit?

[Glen]

Hmmm, 1952....Korean War, so actually a lot of people are mobilized there...also, still have troops in Europe and Japan right, from the occupations?

And of course the Cold War means there are some serious troops facing each other....

Transistors are still not in common useage, BTW.

[Glen]

The world in 1952 -

[Thande]

Ah good, I thought transistors wouldn't be in use yet - so the Race's little EMP plan still won't work.

Hadn't realised they were already mobilising for the Korean war.

[GBW]

Hadn't realised they were already mobilising for the Korean war.
Weren't really mobilizing, except maybe the Koreas and China. They were using mostly surplus WWII equipment and I believe the UN countries contributed active soldiers.

[Glen]

Done mobilizing. The war had actually been pretty static for about a year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

[Grimm Reaper]

1952? Jets entering service on a large scale for the US, USSR, and UK and probably a small scale for other nations.

Literally tens of millions of men who served in the military, possibly in combat, within the last 7-8 years.

Virtual mountains of WWII armaments lying around with more modern weapons already in service. Examples from the US alone include the 3.5 inch bazooka, tanks greatly improved over the Sherman, F-86 Shooting Star.

US has an arsenal of as many as 400 atomic weapons and an unknown number of hydrogen bombs, the Soviets fewer but still substantial.



The outcome is clear!:)

Atvar destroys the planet from space and returns to report his actions to the emperor.:(

[Glen]

Nuclear Club circa May 1952 -

USA
USSR

Great Britain would detonate their first nuclear warhead in October of 1952.

[Fenwick]

In the books the Race has ways of loctating nuclear signatures, they just were unable to for the ship with most of said equipment was down by the time the powers starting slinging nukes. So WI Atvar finds the various US/Soviet stockpiles and takes them out?

While the technology is better, the Race still has an advantage. 1) Most of worlds armies are weak. 2.) Bulk of NATO troops are in Korea. 3.) Communism has spread to nations that don't want it, so the Race may be seen as liberators. 4.) Most of the world is still in poor shape following WWII.

[fhaessig]

Glen, Why do you count Switzerland as LIMITED democracy?

Grimm reaper, you can add France to your list of states with substancial number of jets in 52.

[Glen]

Glen, Why do you count Switzerland as LIMITED democracy?

Grimm reaper, you can add France to your list of states with substancial number of jets in 52.

I didn't. This is taken directly from a website on the Cold War.

However, I'd guess the reason might be because several of the Cantons did not have women with the right to vote.

[Glen]

1952? Jets entering service on a large scale for the US, USSR, and UK and probably a small scale for other nations.

Literally tens of millions of men who served in the military, possibly in combat, within the last 7-8 years.

Virtual mountains of WWII armaments lying around with more modern weapons already in service. Examples from the US alone include the 3.5 inch bazooka, tanks greatly improved over the Sherman, F-86 Shooting Star.

US has an arsenal of as many as 400 atomic weapons and an unknown number of hydrogen bombs, the Soviets fewer but still substantial.



The outcome is clear!:)

Atvar destroys the planet from space and returns to report his actions to the emperor.:(

Do you have a reference on the 400 warheads? It seems a little high for 1952.

Also, the Hydrogen bomb was just being developed at this time...

[Glen]

I can see the Race making pre-emptive strikes on nuclear sites. That would allow them to attempt to invade without nuking the planet from space (though it sounds in retrospect like they didn't REALLY have enough to do that, just enough to make it a place the Race wouldn't want to live in...hmmm...I wonder if the Race are actually more sensitive to ionizing radiation than humans?).

[Evil Opus]

1952? Jets entering service on a large scale for the US, USSR, and UK and probably a small scale for other nations.

Literally tens of millions of men who served in the military, possibly in combat, within the last 7-8 years.

Virtual mountains of WWII armaments lying around with more modern weapons already in service. Examples from the US alone include the 3.5 inch bazooka, tanks greatly improved over the Sherman, F-86 Shooting Star.

US has an arsenal of as many as 400 atomic weapons and an unknown number of hydrogen bombs, the Soviets fewer but still substantial.



The outcome is clear!:)

Atvar destroys the planet from space and returns to report his actions to the emperor.:( No H-bombs in 1952, and with the colonization fleet even closer behind then 10 years prior, and with his dignity at stake, Atvar probably would have commenced with the invasion anyway...and, with no major conflicts besides the Korean War, its not hard to see Truman and Stalin coming together and nuking the hell out of the Lizard landing parties. Probably the planet is rendered near useless after this war.

[MerryPrankster]

No H-bombs in 1952, and with the colonization fleet even closer behind then 10 years prior, and with his dignity at stake, Atvar probably would have commenced with the invasion anyway...and, with no major conflicts besides the Korean War, its not hard to see Truman and Stalin coming together and nuking the hell out of the Lizard landing parties. Probably the planet is rendered near useless after this war.

I wouldn't say the planet would be rendered "near useless." Assuming 500 or so nuclear detonations over 4-5 years of warfare, there'd be a lot of devastation of various places, but that's well below the (theoretical) threshhold for nuclear winter (35,000 groundbursts).

[Leej]

What I often wonder about is what would have happened if Atvar had waited those extra 20 years for contact with the emperor...then invaded in 1962.
I'd think astronomers would have noticed those weird objects in earth orbit.

Switzerland + limited democracy- women didn't have the vote yet.

[fhaessig]

Switzerland + limited democracy- women didn't have the vote yet.

Also for Glen.

If that's the reason, then US should also be marked as such, becayse Jim Crow laws were still in place.

[MerryPrankster]

Also for Glen.

If that's the reason, then US should also be marked as such, becayse Jim Crow laws were still in place.

The Jim Crow laws were only active in a few states and were not 100% effective in stopping blacks from voting. Although only 5% of blacks were registered to vote in Mississippi, 25% or so were in Georgia, while 40% were in Virginia (this according to some map I saw once upon a time--not sure what year this was).

That women could NOT vote was enshrined in Swiss law. The voting rights of blacks were hampered by various legal tricks or in some cases by physically driving blacks away from the polls--however, it was not explicitly stated that blacks could NOT vote.

[Matt]

Part of what makes this interesting is that delivery systems for nukes in the early 50's are extremely limited. The US's Honest John missile is still a year away, and only yields 20kt, and a 30 km range. Aircraft ready in 52 are the B-50, B-36, B-47, some B-52 prototypes, AJ Savage.

There may also be some reluctance by the United States to detonate a nuke inside the country at first.

[Thande]

What always puzzled me was that in the Worldwar books, no-one seemed to make a distinction between regular atomics and hydrogen bombs. It is mentioned a few times that characters who see both human and Race nuclear detonations think that the Race ones look bigger, yet Atvar seems to act like an A-bomb and a H-bomb are wholly equivalent.

Matt: Interesting - for one thing, this means no attempts at missile attacks on the ships in orbit (which might be an option in 1962, Opus's scenario).

[Amerigo Vespucci]

It's a presidential election year... does Truman stay on for a third term? Also, the US Military has been desegregated, which is good as it allows for far more troops than in 1942.

[Matt]

What always puzzled me was that in the Worldwar books, no-one seemed to make a distinction between regular atomics and hydrogen bombs. It is mentioned a few times that characters who see both human and Race nuclear detonations think that the Race ones look bigger, yet Atvar seems to act like an A-bomb and a H-bomb are wholly equivalent.

Matt: Interesting - for one thing, this means no attempts at missile attacks on the ships in orbit (which might be an option in 1962, Opus's scenario).

Even an attack in 62 might be out of the question. Most of these rockets barely leave the atmosphere, and then it's only their warheads. Getting em to the Race is the tricky part, but we don't even know where their orbit has been placed.

We don't get much mentioned of yieldage in either book, which makes me think that the Race's weapons, while larger, are not very big compared to what we have laying around these days. Definatly under the 50kt range I think though. Could be that the Race simply uses dial-a-yield designs though.

A landing in 62 would be bad for all involved I think. The US is starting to have an absurd amount of weapons, and the detonation of an EMP blast might be enough to trigger a war with the USSR. Which is worse for the Sovs then the United States. Far worse.

[Matt]

It's a presidential election year... does Truman stay on for a third term? Also, the US Military has been desegregated, which is good as it allows for far more troops than in 1942.

There's going to be alot of troops floating around, most of the US active divisions well be in Korea. We were activiting alot of WW2 vets to train rookies at this time, and depending on our nukes to keep the Sovs out of Western Europe. Mobilization well take longer, but for pretty much everyone theres going to be an ass load of combat veterans to call on. South America also may be able to defend themselves too, since they were on teh recieving end of alot of surplus equipment.

[Leej]

Also for Glen.

If that's the reason, then US should also be marked as such, becayse Jim Crow laws were still in place.
I think that site counts the US as a full democracy ever since its birth IIRC. So they hardly think about things like that :D

[David bar Elias]

Perhaps the 1952 election is cancelled like the 1944 election in WorldWar.....

[Grimm Reaper]

Truman ordered an arsenal of 400 atomic bombs following his discovery in 1947 that the US had a total of zero weapons assembled and the parts for no more than twelve!

[fhaessig]

I think that site counts the US as a full democracy ever since its birth IIRC. So they hardly think about things like that :D


Can you provide the link to the site?

I'd be interested to see what they have at some other points.

[Thande]

How does everyone see the Race doing in Western Europe? Better or worse than the original TL?

There is obviously no powerful Germany; France (and to some extent the UK) are still finding their feet again after WW2. OTOH, there are plenty of Allied forces in West Germany...

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Better, really. With other countries' forces in Germany, they'll be dependant on long-distance supply lines in a way that Germany itself wouldn't be. When the invasion shuts down most transportation, they're going to be SOL. You also have to consider the war exhaustion of Britain at the time. This might be balanced by France, however, which had been rapidly rebuilding its arms industry.

[Thande]

Here's my stab at an outcome. I welcome other possible views because I'm not too certain about this myself...

Like whether to retain Italy and the Low Countries as free, for instance. Here I kept Italy but not the Low Countries. France is in a similar situation here to Britain in the original TL: they manage to kick the Lizards out of their home territory but lose their empire.

Britain OTOH gets the Bomb some way into the conflict and is able to retain at least most of the Dominions and a few other parts.

[GBW]

Here's my stab at an outcome. I welcome other possible views because I'm not too certain about this myself...

Like whether to retain Italy and the Low Countries as free, for instance. Here I kept Italy but not the Low Countries. France is in a similar situation here to Britain in the original TL: they manage to kick the Lizards out of their home territory but lose their empire.

Britain OTOH gets the Bomb some way into the conflict and is able to retain at least most of the Dominions and a few other parts.
If anything, I think it would be the Low Countries free and Italy conquered. The LC have both immediate British and French support and the climate is less hospitable to the Race than Italy is. I also agree that the British are going to retain more in this TL, and the division in Australia seems reasonable.

However, I don't think Taiwan and Hainan will be falling under Japanese control. Chiang Kai-shek will, er, 'protest strongly' and I doubt post-war Japan wants the responsibility. Hainan and Taiwan will probably be under the ROC under Chiang.

[David bar Elias]

Hmmm.....interesting map. Poor India/Pakistan/Israel/Sri Lanka....they've been independent for a very short amount of time.

[Glen]

Also for Glen.

If that's the reason, then US should also be marked as such, becayse Jim Crow laws were still in place.

No argument there. However, I didn't make that one, I just posted it for reference.

[Glen]

Truman ordered an arsenal of 400 atomic bombs following his discovery in 1947 that the US had a total of zero weapons assembled and the parts for no more than twelve!

Ordered maybe, but how many were completed by May '52?

[Matt]

Benelux I think stays free, and I think that the US might have enough clot by now to force North Mexico to stay free as well. Germany's fought been so fought over lately that few there care who's in charge. Korea stays free, thanks to the UN presence early in the War, and the use of American nukes to protect our troops there.

[GBW]

Korea stays free, thanks to the UN presence early in the War, and the use of American nukes to protect our troops there.
Both of them?

[Matt]

Both of them?

Well, I don't think the whole pensula can hold, but if even part of it holds when the peace talks come I'm sure the United States well insist on a United Korea.

[Glen]

Here's my stab at an outcome. I welcome other possible views because I'm not too certain about this myself...

Like whether to retain Italy and the Low Countries as free, for instance. Here I kept Italy but not the Low Countries. France is in a similar situation here to Britain in the original TL: they manage to kick the Lizards out of their home territory but lose their empire.

Britain OTOH gets the Bomb some way into the conflict and is able to retain at least most of the Dominions and a few other parts.

I think that though it will stick in their craws, Australia is freed by the British ITTL.

I think the US will give up Korea, unfortunately, Matt.

I think both the Low Countries and France and Italy goes to the Lizards. Yeah, that's right. Europe belongs to the Race ITTL.

However, I think we might see more gains instead for the British, ones the Lizards won't like.:D

Also, the US might have enough guns early on to force the retention of the Panama Canal Zone, as the British will the Suez.

[GBW]

I have to disagree about France, Glen. The French extracted their first plutonium in 1949 but had no commitment to a nuclear arsenal until their defeat at Dien Bien Phu in 1954. If the Race invades, France will rapidly seek their own atomic bomb and likely gain British assistance, probably American assistance too.

[Romulus Augustulus]

Well, while that scenario also has its interesting side, I like this one because 1) Britain is still thought of as a superpower, 2) there are very few nukes, so Atvar is unlikely to turn tail or try nuking the Earth from orbit, as he might later on, and conventional warfare will still be an important factor (a la DROPSHOT).

Actually, the Race doesn't nuke from orbit...IIRC, it uses atmospheric craft to do the work.

And I do believe that any time after 1970 they're just fucked. Why? Well, both the US and USSR have a lot of tactical nuclear weapons in addition to nuclear air-to-air missiles or unguided rockets and in the case of the Soviets, after 1976 or so an ABM system around Moscow.

[Hyperion]

The US tested the first Hydrogen bomb on November 1st 1952. Even if it isn't available when the invasion begins, by 1953 it is possible that a couple devices could be ready.

Romulus Augustus is quite correct in pointing out something that many of you continuously fail to notice. The Race did not have nuclear missiles or any way of delivering nukes from orbit during the World War series. It was only by the time of Colonization that they had nuclear weapons on their spaceships.

The ONLY WAY nukes can be delivered is from killer craft, which given the advances in aircraft, radar, and missiles after WW2 and Korea, will be a lot easier to shoot down with Human aircraft.

[Matt]

The US tested the first Hydrogen bomb on November 1st 1952. Even if it isn't available when the invasion begins, by 1953 it is possible that a couple devices could be ready.

Mike, the first H-bomb was static. Several buildings had to be erected to test it.

Romulus Augustus is quite correct in pointing out something that many of you continuously fail to notice. The Race did not have nuclear missiles or any way of delivering nukes from orbit during the World War series. It was only by the time of Colonization that they had nuclear weapons on their spaceships.

The ONLY WAY nukes can be delivered is from killer craft, which given the advances in aircraft, radar, and missiles after WW2 and Korea, will be a lot easier to shoot down with Human aircraft.


I'm well aware, but the Race's aircraft are still scores away from our own at this point. AAMs aren't being widely deployed(yet), and radar guided AA is rudementary.

[Fenwick]

Even if aircraft is used to deliver nukes, the aircraft of the race is still advanced enough to have an easy time of the whole thing. What jet aircraft is in use is still slow, and relies on machine guns.

Of course this would just mean it would almost be a copy of the OTL of Worldwar. Maybe if the Race has knowledge about nukes to begin with, then they will not send down so many of their ships.

I am in agreement with others that more of Europe will be taken over. It was still in shambles, and with America occupied with its own front, they cannot send the assistance to their foriegn allies.

[Leej]

You seem to be forgetting about a little thing called the red army there. I'm sure it could kick serious race arse (and cause a.... interesting post war situation)

[GBW]

We also have to keep in mind that Stalin was anything but a young man at this point. In OTL, he died less than a year after the Race landing is supposed to take place. Whether he was poisoned or not, the stress of the USSR being invaded by a foe even more dangerous than the Nazis may kill him before this war is over, and the Soviet Union had nowhere near the succession process the USA in Worldwar did when FDR died. Will the Soviets be able to hold together well enough in the aftermath of Stalin's death with the Race at the gates of Moscow?

[Matt]

You seem to be forgetting about a little thing called the red army there. I'm sure it could kick serious race arse (and cause a.... interesting post war situation)


They could very well be the saviours of Europe. Although I just thought of something else, the Race probably decided on it's landing zones decades ago. So there would still be a landing in Poland, and one in France and the Ukraine, but Germany would be free of one...

[Fenwick]

They could very well be the saviours of Europe. Although I just thought of something else, the Race probably decided on it's landing zones decades ago. So there would still be a landing in Poland, and one in France and the Ukraine, but Germany would be free of one...

True, but it is not the Germany of 1942 is it?

[Matt]

True, but it is not the Germany of 1942 is it?

Not even close :p But there are alot of Sovs in there at first, so they can give em a fighting chance to re-arm themselves.

[Fenwick]

Not even close :p But there are alot of Sovs in there at first, so they can give em a fighting chance to re-arm themselves.

Having guns is different then being able to make more, not to mention feed the soldiers.

[Romulus Augustulus]

I think it would be interesting to see the Race arriving in a TL where the US had somehow managed to succesfully implement the SDI, and the Soviets had their own counterpart, and Earth orbit was filled with stuff designed to shoot down ballistic missiles...

Quite obviously the Race would be fucked, especially if the US could get those nuke-pumped X-ray lasers to work.

Also interesting: the Race trying to land in the Moscow area with the Soviets using their A-35 ABM system against the invaders. Also hillarious...

(in whatever language the Race speak): Oh, shit! Oh, shit! A fucking nuclear detonation! The dropship is...*static*...

Very funny. Very funny indeed. Irrelevant, perhaps, but very funny.

[Mysterius]

Can someone please point me to any and all fanfics/discussions about the Race arriving in various time periods or ATLs, especially OTL or close? Haven't had much time/luck while searching on my own. :(

Mysterius

[Romulus Augustulus]

And I mean an improved A-35 system, not the shitty original.

[luakel]

Here's my stab at an outcome. I welcome other possible views because I'm not too certain about this myself...

Like whether to retain Italy and the Low Countries as free, for instance. Here I kept Italy but not the Low Countries. France is in a similar situation here to Britain in the original TL: they manage to kick the Lizards out of their home territory but lose their empire.

Britain OTOH gets the Bomb some way into the conflict and is able to retain at least most of the Dominions and a few other parts.
Hmm, how about Britain keeps Malaya part of the Empire (not much desert there) while there is a united Korea under US guidance. I also think Mexico staying alive is plausible, and that Northern Europe (Benelux, Germany, Poland) might be able to stay human due to the large troop numbers there, but Italy will be Race-occupied.