Do you predict any changes...

[Blitzit]

In South America during the 21st century? I mean, the creation of new nations or union of some? I created this thread because I haven't seen much discussion about this region.

[Nicole]

Well, Bolivia could try something against Chile, but right now I think the odds are stacked heavily against Bolivia.

[Max Sinister]

I wonder what happens if left politicians are elected in even more countries there (although it looks like the trend doesn't last forever, looking at Peru), especially if the USA continue to elect republican presidents. A united, more leftist South / Latin America as a counterweight to the US...

[1940LaSalle]

I wonder what happens if left politicians are elected in even more countries there (although it looks like the trend doesn't last forever, looking at Peru), especially if the USA continue to elect republican presidents. A united, more leftist South / Latin America as a counterweight to the US...

Good luck on "united". All it'll take is one World Cup game between, say, Brazil and Argentina and the whole thing comes unhinged.

[Blitzit]

I think that French Guyana will become independent sooner or later, when they realize they're the only "big" colony left out there. It'd probably get a different name, too.

By the way, when think about AH, I always liked the idea of a Guyanian Empire, where Guyana, Suriname and French Guyana actually had some relevancy in South America and the world... I mean, three quarters of the people here in Brazil must've never heard about them, and they BORDER us!

[Nicole]

Being French gives alot of advantages to Guiana, though, and they're an important site of the EU Space Program- I'd say it's unlikely they'll break away unless huge changes in how they're governed occur.

[Narratio]

Even if they broke away, where would thier money come from? The nice thing about being French owned is that they have to cough up cash for the basics of life or risk being denounced as bad people.

The Launch site injects lots of cash into the local economy. Going independent, they could let the French keep the launch facilites and pay huge rent for them. Like Kazakhstan does with Baikonur.

[sunsurf]

Apparently, that last post was the 77,777th post in this forum. I was hoping *I'd* get to post it! But Narratio beat me to it! Not that it matters. I'll have plenty of chances in the other forums. :D

Fortunately I do have a legitimate contribution to this thread. I could only think of one.

Brazil's rain forests are dying out. When Brazil is mostly desert or farmland, there'll be changes in climate, geography, politics, economics.
What changes they are, it's hard to say. Will ecologically minded governments try to force changes in Brazil's government before the rain forest disappears completely?

It's the biggest country in South America. Are any of its provinces likely to try to secede?

[The Ubbergeek]

The south, 'gaucholand' as I humorously refer to it. Now, do not salivate - the separatists here are not like the québecois, they tend to be on the right side of politics, and some have racist agendas...

[Wendell]

Well, Bolivia could try something against Chile, but right now I think the odds are stacked heavily against Bolivia.
Bolivia could even be split.

These divisions are remotely possible in Latin America

One or more splits from Mexico
One split from Brazil, it's south
One (or two) from Bolivia
One (or more) from Colombia
One (or more) from Venezuela
One (or more) from Guatemala


Furthermore, I could see mergers. Perhaps Dominican Republic and Haiti unite?

Maybe a renewed West Indies Federation.

I agree, French Guiana likely won't break from France any time soon.

[Max Sinister]

If there has to be a split in Brazil, why not in the Northeast? They're quite poor and feel mistreated by the government in Brasilia.

[Nicole]

I don't think Hispanolan unification is too likely- what does the DR get out of it?

[Alcuin]

Well, Bolivia could try something against Chile, but right now I think the odds are stacked heavily against Bolivia.

Chile? Isn't it Peru's turn to beat the Bolivians next? I tend to lose track of these things.

(I don't think it'll be Chile because the Chileans very kindly provide a safe harbour for the Bolivian navy).

[Jason]

Maybe a renewed West Indies Federation.

Now that's an interesting one (did once have an outline TL for a surviving WI fed). Possibly known as the Caribbean Federation and enlarged as UK transfers its remaining Caribbean colonies to it?

The Carribean has a few interesting possibilities, as both the Dutch and French still have colonies/overseas territories there-if the idea of a united Europe did come about, could we see a unified EU province (ok, geographically diverse but politically unified) of the Dutch, French and possibly even UK colonies? Western Europa?

[Faeelin]

If there has to be a split in Brazil, why not in the Northeast? They're quite poor and feel mistreated by the government in Brasilia.

Yea; but without the richer South, they'd be even poorer.

[Heart of Darkness]

Well, when your major exports are drugs and hot women....

[The Ubbergeek]

Well, when your major exports are drugs and hot women....

Ahem. No stereotypical ideas please. They are always peeved that some clueless gringos say crap like that.

Brazil have a good potential if they get their act together. Look at Ambraer and cie.

[Blitzit]

IMO, the best thing that could happen to (southeastern) Brazil would be the secession of the northeastern states. And it'd be even better if our current president went there to rule, since that's where he was born. After all, even when including the tourism, the northeastern states are more of a drain and an elector farm, currently leftist (which is unfortunately going to reelect Lula this year).

I may sound aggressive in this post, but I do have pity for the poorer people there. I just wish the government(s) could give them the education they have been promising since 1930.

[The Ubbergeek]

IMO, the best thing that could happen to (southeastern) Brazil would be the secession of the northeastern states. And it'd be even better if our current president went there to rule, since that's where he was born. After all, even when including the tourism, the northeastern states are more of a drain and an elector farm, currently leftist (which is unfortunately going to reelect Lula this year).

I may sound aggressive in this post, but I do have pity for the poorer people there. I just wish the government(s) could give them the education they have been promising since 1930.

The way of thinking is divise and bad. How can't you stay united, face your problems together and try to fix the solutions as one people, instead of going in different directions egoisticaly?

And don't bring my sovereignist side in it; Canada is based on many cultures, where Brazil is much more united.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Something might happen between Peru and Ecuador. They fought a brief war just last decade and I think Ecuador still claims a slice of Peruvian Amazonia.

Glad to see nobody's mentioned the expansionist Venezuela BS yet.

Oops!

[Steffen]

I´m deeply curious in how deep a mess guys like Chavez and Morales will drive their countries into.

If the talk about breaking diplomatic relations with Peru if they don´t elect his buddy, I´d think it´s going to be interesting.

With Uribe reelected and Peru not fallen into Chavez camp, the counter-force might be strong enough, especially if Brazil takes it regional leadership role.

[Blitzit]

Sorry if I sounded too egoistical in my post; I fully recognize such fact, and now that I think about it again I think I just got mad because that region is not economically important and has places with very poor people. I recently had some work at school about our nation's problems, and we realized that the first thing we need is education, healthcare, the reform of the prison system and piracy control. Unfortunately, this never happens, and it doesn't matter if the president is leftist or rightist. The fact that the "Brazil world power" concept is being thrown forward since the 20th century makes me frustrated. And the presiden't almost sure reelection too.

But now, to get on topic, I think that the pro-Chavez thing isn't going to last long, as shown in Peru and Colombia.

[Civilizer]

I hope there wont be a 2nd War of the Pacific, since i live in Chile, but with the poverty and resentment in Peru and Bolivia, it might happen in a few decades. Also, I expect a Chile-Brazil-Colombia alliance to counterweight Venezuela-Argentina-Bolivia, with Peru and Ecuador staying neutral.

Also, if Chile continues in its way and reforms the education system, it might become considerably developed in a few decades.

[Heart of Darkness]

Anything involving Venezuela could concievably draw in the U.S. (Aformention disenigration of Mexico as well.)

[Wendell]

I hope there wont be a 2nd War of the Pacific, since i live in Chile, but with the poverty and resentment in Peru and Bolivia, it might happen in a few decades. Also, I expect a Chile-Brazil-Colombia alliance to counterweight Venezuela-Argentina-Bolivia, with Peru and Ecuador staying neutral.

Also, if Chile continues in its way and reforms the education system, it might become considerably developed in a few decades.
Actuall, this is an interesting idea, and I do think that Chavez intends to start something, particularly with his newfound allies. That said, how might Paraguay fall into the alliances?

[Wendell]

I don't think Hispanolan unification is too likely- what does the DR get out of it?
Assurances of increased stability across the island, I suppose, but not much else.

[SkyEmperor]

Venezuela isnt expansionist in the traditional sense. But, Cahvez is alot more happy with socialists ruling his neighbors than capitalists. Colombia has had a violent civil war brewing for awhile. The comabt is officially suspended by a ceasefire right now though. Lately, Venezuela has been buying way more Chinese military equipment than they use. I suspect that a fair amount of it is going to start showing up in the hands of the FARC (leftist guerillas) in Colmbia.

the doomsday scenario is that the FARC get enough Chinese/Venezulean gear and drug money that they do something stuipid, like seize Bogota or Medellin. When they do that, Chavez, Morales, and whoever else they can bring along (Castro?) decide to recognize the FARC as the legitimate government, and send troops (or at least air support) for the rebels. No good can come when the US realizes that a socialist army is controlling the largest petroleum reserves outside of the Middle East.

[Wendell]

Venezuela isnt expansionist in the traditional sense. But, Cahvez is alot more happy with socialists ruling his neighbors than capitalists. Colombia has had a violent civil war brewing for awhile. The comabt is officially suspended by a ceasefire right now though. Lately, Venezuela has been buying way more Chinese military equipment than they use. I suspect that a fair amount of it is going to start showing up in the hands of the FARC (leftist guerillas) in Colmbia.

the doomsday scenario is that the FARC get enough Chinese/Venezulean gear and drug money that they do something stuipid, like seize Bogota or Medellin. When they do that, Chavez, Morales, and whoever else they can bring along (Castro?) decide to recognize the FARC as the legitimate government, and send troops (or at least air support) for the rebels. No good can come when the US realizes that a socialist army is controlling the largest petroleum reserves outside of the Middle East.
I was thinking more that, in the shorter term, Venezuela would persue its border dispute with Guyana.

[Agentdark]

Or just take Guyanna, but that probably wont happen

[Wendell]

Or just take Guyanna, but that probably wont happen
It might haoppen, but one wonders if such a small war could widen.

[Agentdark]

That kind of war could piss off Brazil, and maybe Britian as well, just becouse Guyanna is a former coloney

[Tyr]

There is no way Venezuala will try anything. That is all just American BS propeganda because Chavez won't fall into line with them.
America are just looking for a excuse to hit Venezuala, a invasion of Guyana would fit that nicely- not only is it a aggressive action but its a aggressive action against a very close friend of America.

[Hapsburg]

It'd be interesting to see another "United States of Central America", similar to the one that formed after the 1820s when independence occured.

[Jason]

It'd be interesting to see another "United States of Central America", similar to the one that formed after the 1820s when independence occured.

Do you see it forming peaceably-a union or as the result of an expansionist move?

[Straha]

Do you see it forming peaceably-a union or as the result of an expansionist move?
My guess is a little bit of both.

[Nicole]

It depends- some countries may sign up for a union, but others will resist.

[Wendell]

There is no way Venezuala will try anything. That is all just American BS propeganda because Chavez won't fall into line with them.
America are just looking for a excuse to hit Venezuala, a invasion of Guyana would fit that nicely- not only is it a aggressive action but its a aggressive action against a very close friend of America.
Only time will tell, but adding indicators to its national flag indicating the desire of Venezuela to revive lands lost is a good indicator;)

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

There is no way Venezuala will try anything. That is all just American BS propeganda because Chavez won't fall into line with them.
America are just looking for a excuse to hit Venezuala, a invasion of Guyana would fit that nicely- not only is it a aggressive action but its a aggressive action against a very close friend of America.

This is why I think you're wrong:

You and what army?

Of course some people in the US would like to topple Chavez no matter what, and Bush has shown a tendency to invade countries without a good reason. But is there any indication that Bush, not random neo-con #1,984, but Bush himself wants to invade Venezuela? And this is all assuming it can actually be done.

[Tyr]

I don't think they are actually planning to invade Venezuala, with that I'd imagine they would keepto air strikes and maybe critical installation seizures and let the people overthrow their evil commie dictator (which again is BS. Chavez has been great for the people).

If Venezuala does invade somewhere else though (which it won't) then the US will certainly attack them- most likely with full international backing. Invading other countries is not the done thing these days, it just doesn't happen without brown stuff hitting a rapidly spinning object.
And as I mentioned: Guyana is a close friend of America. There is no way America would stand for Venezuala harming it.

[eschaton]

I don't think Chavez has any great revanchist ideas. It's been fairly clear the way he's seeking to "play" South America is through money and diplomacy, which he's been fairly masterful at doing. If anything, he might just buy the disputed land from Guyana...he has the money and Guyana is certainly poor enough that the money would be a better deal than keeping the disputed land.

Colombia's a freaking mess. I was never a fan of Uribe, but I've read more about the situation down there, and it's essentially fascism in much of the county. Many of the cities are controled by paramilitaries who kill anyone who's a transgressor, either through lawbreaking or simply something like being a union organizer. Yes they do have elections, but in practice it's a far less free nation than Venuzuela.

It's important to know the right didn't "win" in Peru...the winner is arguably more leftist than Humatala (sp?), as he's a center-leftist while his opponent simply called himself a "Nationalist." Humatala, unlike Chavez or Morales, seemed to mainly be an oppertunistic authoritarian. Anyway, Peru now will I think keep close to Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and to a lesser extent Argentina. I do not think it will be very close to the U.S. though, at least for the remainder of Bush's term.

Ecuador is going to drift further to the left, as there's currently a lot of popular unrest there. Paraguay has been ruled essentially perpetually by the same right-wing party, but with the regional trends the way they are, it might not be able to maintain itself as a pro-US bastion.

In the long run I could see Surinam and Guyana uniting. The Dutch connection to Surinam is so tenuous basically no one there speaks Dutch. They're seriously considering making English the official language. Both nations have a very similar ethnic mix as well (though Surinam has more muslims). Besides that, not much in the way of border changes methinks.

[Steffen]

Interesting article (http://www.hannan.co.uk/artiicles.htm#Peru)by Tory MEP Dan Hannan, who happens to be peruvian born

[Berra]

Since there is a left wing trend now, a right wing trend seams wery likely. That and cheaper oil prices that will put some of them in an bad spot.