20th century wars which did not occur but should have

[zoomar]

What follows is a list of 20th century international disagreements which could have flamed into full-scale war but didn't. For those of interest, please provide a brief description of causes, major battles, and outcomes. Which would probably have resulted in the greatest overall change from OTL. For some wars, dates are only suggestions.

- The undeclared US/English naval conflict of 1914-15 (in response to early "violation" of freedom of seas by RN)
- The US/Mexican War of 1916-18
- The Continuation War of 1919-21 (Germany refuses to sign versailles)
- The Pacific War of 1922-26 (US/Japan)
- The Rhineland War (France, UK invade Germany following Hitler's occupation of Rhineland.
- The Soviet/Japanese War of 1937-41
- World War 3 -1945-50 (Anti-Hitler alliance breaks up several months before Hitler's defeat with open hostilities between US/UK and USSR in 1945)
- World War 3 - 1952-1958? (Korean War expands to direct war between US/UK-led alliance and USSR/PRC)
- Suez War of 1956-60 - UK/France continue Suez operation as full-scale invasion/occupation of Egypt.
- World War 3 (1961 Berlin crisis erupts into war)
- World War 3 (1962 - Cuban missile crisis goes ballistic :D )
- Sino-Soviet War of 1970-75
- Hostage War of 1979-80 (US invasion of Iran)
- India-Pakistan War of 2000

[Xen]

I wouldnt say they should have occured, as much as the could have occured.

There was almost a war in the 1990s between Iran and the Taliban.

Not to mention several opportunites for an Iraqi Civil War

[zoomar]

I wouldnt say they should have occured, as much as the could have occured.

There was almost a war in the 1990s between Iran and the Taliban.

Not to mention several opportunites for an Iraqi Civil War


Good point, "could have" is much better....although the "Rhineland War" should have!

[wkwillis]

2000 Gore vs Bush Civil War

1949 Nuke Winter War (Atkins vs Groves at Manhattan Project)

1940 Russian Attack on Germany (when Germany was busy in France)

1939 Stavka Coup

1939 Belgian Attack on Rhineland (after Germany attacked Poland)

1936 Stavka Coup

1936 French Rhineland Civil War (army mutinies when socialists order attack)

1934 Newfoundland Default War (Newfies lost right to self government)

1933 Roosevelt vs Hoover Civil War

1933 US vs Japan (china)

1921 Italian Civil War

1919 Indian Independence War

1915 UK vs Germany (after France conquered)

1914 Irish Independence War

1912 Balkans and Italy vs Austria and Turkey

1905 Russian Civil War

1905 Franco-Prussian War II

18?? Australian Independence War

[Straha]

2001 the american-european war of atomic genocide/the great burning
2003 WWIII between America,china and the islamic bloc
WWIII in 1979
WWIII in 1957
2002 war between china and taiwan
1939 second russo-japanese war
1932 civil war between Huey Long,FDR and Hoover

[Melvin Loh]

What about the following- many have already been referred to previously

1904- Anglo-Russian war over Dogger Bank incident

1912-Franco-German war over Agadir incident

1922-24- continued Greco-Turkish war

1937- US war against Japan over USS PANAY sinking

1938-39- Sudetenland War

1958- British war with Iraq over Kuwait (Gulf War 1 30 yrs earlier)

1960-64- direct military confrontation between US, USSR in Congo

1961-63- Dutch-Indonesian war over West Papua

mid-1960s- war between Australia, Britain, US vs expansionist Sukarno Indonesia

1962- US invasion of Cuba during Missile Crisis period

1968- 2nd Korean War over USS PUEBLO, or alternatively over continued NK incursions into ROK between 1966 and 1971

1973- extended Yom Kippur War- direct US military intevention in support of Israel

1974- British war over Turkey's invasion of Cyprus

1979-81- British war with Guatemala over Belize

mid to late-1980s- US invasion of Nicaragua from Honduras

1985-86- US war against Iran after Shi'ite hostage-taking

1987- US war on Iraq over USS STARK

early 1990s- civil war in Central Asian FSU republics between indigenous ppls, Russian settlers

1990-91- fullscale US military intervention in Liberian civil war

1993-94- South African post-apartheid civil war among ANC, Inkatha, AWB supporters

1993-95- Macedonian war

1998- Indian, Pakistani nuclear exchange

1999- Australian war with Indonesia over East Timor

2000- fullscale Fijian civil war between indigenous Fijians, ethnic Indians

[Baskilisk]

This deserves a good bump.

[Berra]

Blowing up Scandinavia

1905: Norwegian war of independence.
1950-80: The Cod wars

[HJ Tulp]

Dutch-Guyanese War of 1968.

[richie42]

US Israeli War after the Liberty incident?

[HJ Tulp]

Dutch-American invasion of Suriname 1983.

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

1902 United States and Germany at war over Venezuela incident

1919 Several Allied Powers at war with the Netherlands over the Dutch refusal to hand over the Kaiser for war crimes trial

1923 Italy at war with Greece beginning with Corfu incident

1934 Italy at war with Germany after Austria Brenner Pass warning is ignored

1939-1940 England and France at war with Russia over Finland

1946 United States at war with Russia over Russian failure to withdraw troops from Iran

1956 NATO at war with Warsaw Pact over Hungary invasion

1958 United States at war with China over Chinese seizure of Quemoy and Matsu

1981 Iraqi-Israeli war after Israeli attack on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear site

[jorbian]

1961 - American backed Taiwanese invasion of the Mainland, taking advantage of the great leap forward screwing China to hell.

[AltSptHst]

1933 Roosevelt vs Hoover Civil War

That is interesting. Explain that one to me. I have never heard that one before.

[aktarian]

1993-95- Macedonian war


That happeend in 2001. Does that count?

1970/71 Iranian-British war over Bahrain
1981 - Bahranian civil war as a result of shi'ia coup
1995ish - Egyptian civil war between islamists and government
1996ish - Turco-Syrian war over Turkish dams on Euphrates

[yourworstnightmare]

1932- Chaco War explode into a Great Latin American war with most Latin American nations involved.

[DrakonFin]

For Finland:

1905: War of Independence

1918-20: (2nd) War of Åland

1919-1920: Finno-Soviet War ("War for St. Petersburg")

1918- (say)1926: Any number of alternate Wars of Karelian Liberation ("Kin Wars")

1935: The Repola and Porajärvi War ("Kosola's War")

1935-41: Alternate Finno-Soviet wars

1941: German invasion of Soviet-occupied Finland

1943-46: Alternate Finno-German wars

1948: Second Civil War

[Karlos]

1938. French intervention in spansih civil war, on republican side.
1944. Allied invasion of Spain to overthrow Franco.

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

1948 Following the Tito-Stalin split, Russia invades Yugoslavia to "perserve" communism there.

[King Thomas]

1934-Poland invades Germany after their rulers sense the danger of Hitler.

[False Dmitri]

1934-Poland invades Germany after their rulers sense the danger of Hitler.

Rarely do nations go to war based on a hunch. Rarely.

1930s Poland? I don't think it's plausible at all. Pacifism was all the rage globally, and Poland was hardly in a position to invade its neighbors.

[B_Munro]

Rarely do nations go to war based on a hunch. Rarely.

1930s Poland? I don't think it's plausible at all. Pacifism was all the rage globally, and Poland was hardly in a position to invade its neighbors.

The Poles actually were pretty bellicose, and approached the French with an offer to join them in removing Hitler from power: I'm not sure if this was as early as 1934, and the French were Definitely Not Interested.

The real problem with going in by their lonesome was that the Poles weren't going to go into a war of uncertain magnitude with the USSR at their backs and no foreign support: once the Poles realized how little the French and the British wanted a fight with the Germans, they became rather friendlier to the Reich, IIRC.

Bruce

[Dan Reilly The Great]

judging by about half the suggestions in here, I would almost vote that this be moved to the ASB forum :D

[B_Munro]

You and me too, Dan.

Just a few thoughts:

The undeclared US/English naval conflict of 1914-15 (in response to early "violation" of freedom of seas by RN)

ASB. Brits aren’t that stupid.

- The US/Mexican War of 1916-18

You mean the War of 1916, and the Very Messy Occupation of 1916-1918, no? Might well keep the US out of WWI, which certainly would have a big impact, although whether it’s War Ends In German-Favorable Stalemate, or Allies Win in 1919 And Smash Germany To Bits is still a matter of dispute. (Not to mention the lower-probability Revolution Consumes Central Europe for the romantic types)

- The Continuation War of 1919-21 (Germany refuses to sign versailles)

Blockaded, revolution breaking out here and there, economy in ruins,…if the government tries to fight, I doubt Germany will hold together that long. (If the collapse is staved off until the summer of 1920, the Soviets might actually overrun a Poland assailed on both sides and we see the Red Army in eastern Germany). Hmm. Does Wilson still get his stroke? Will Congress support sending fresh troops to help the Europeans finish the job?

- The Pacific War of 1922-26 (US/Japan)

There’s a game for this one… http://www.commonsmusic.com/download_War_Plan_Orange_Dreadnougths_in_the_Pacif ic_1922-1930_cheap.html

(Unlikely, tho’. The Whacky Militarists weren’t as influential in Japan as they would be in the 30’s)

- The Rhineland War (France, UK invade Germany following Hitler's occupation of Rhineland.

UK isn’t very likely - who can we get as a really hard-ass French leader? The immediate result would be a fair number of dead Germans, some dead French troops, and a bit of an international furor, in which lots of people would be wagging fingers at the French for violating German sovereignty. Hitler is too firmly entrenched to be overthrown at this point, but would he raise the stakes or back down?

Germany is a lot weaker, relatively speaking, than in 1940. Hitler probably knows he can‘t win a protracted conflict; although there is a lot of aggressive massing of troops and volunteers outside the French-occupied zone, there will be negotiations going on behind the scene. The French will want guarantees of some sort of end of Germany’s rearmament plan before they will withdraw: Hitler will bluff, because he will _not_ abandon his military ambitions. He will try to push the French into a corner, forcing them to either go for all-out war with weak or no UK support or a withdrawal with few gains save the continued demilitarization of the Rhineland. Much will depend on whether the French can organize effective allies: if the Poles agree to join in vs. the Germans, and Musso decides the French look like the winning side, it might be possible to organize a “coalition of the willing” strong enough that the French might be willing to push hard. The stalemate probably will not be good for the German economy: one wonders if the UK would be willing to go along with a French naval blockade? Germany will still probably be able to import things through Hungary and Austria, though…

- The Soviet/Japanese War of 1937-41

Soviets are weaker than in 1939, but still have a big edge on the Japanese, especially in heavy tanks, of which the Japanese have, well, none. And they’ve improved their railway communications with the far east substantially since the early 30’s. I’d say the problem is how to make this last until 1941...Stalin is not a man to be discouraged by massive losses, so even if the Japanese manage to dig in a defensive location, say the waist of Korea, I think he just throws loads of artillery, tanks and conscripts at them until they’re simply swamped, while the Japanese air force is slowly annihilated as Soviet forces are built up - it‘s not like Japanese bombers can reach the Soviet industrial heartland. Maaaybe the Soviets are still fighting the Japanese in 1939, in which case things will be interesting: Stalin will have no desire for a two-front war, so the partition-of-Poland of OTL will look even better to him - but the USSR will look more militarily formidable, so the UK and France may bid harder for the USSR’s services.

- World War 3 -1945-50 (Anti-Hitler alliance breaks up several months before Hitler's defeat with open hostilities between US/UK and USSR in 1945)

ASB. Stalin is not that stupid and US policy is not set by George Patton. You need, say, a TL in which the Nazis never do Barbarossa and the Soviets jump in opportunistically on the Allied side at some point, wiping out OTLs perception of them as victims of Hitler and valiant, much-suffering allies in the battle.

- World War 3 - 1952-1958? (Korean War expands to direct war between US/UK-led alliance and USSR/PRC)

Stalin, as said before, is not an idiot. Now, the conflict expanding into a full US-China conflict, perhaps as a result of McArthur doing something spectacularly stupid and possible radioactive, doesn‘t seem beyond the bounds of possibility. The USSR would probably try to stay “neutral”, but if the US actually decides it’s time to Liberate China, they will step up aid to the PRC.

Under such circumstances, the US, frustrated by its inability to pacify China, launches military attacks on locations where the USSR is slipping supplies across the border. Whether this expands into full war or ends in, say, a negotiated peace after a couple of Soviet cities and a couple of European ones go up in smoke, I‘m not sure. MAD after all doesn‘t really come into effect until the second half of the 60‘s, and although the USSR can pretty much wreck Europe, delivering even a couple nukes to the US is going to be hard earlier than the late 50‘s.

In any event, playing atomic chicken with the USSR, and with Europe tied to the front bumper, is likely to do some damage to US -European relations…

- World War 3 (1961 Berlin crisis erupts into war)

Low probability. About as messy as the next one if it happens.

- World War 3 (1962 - Cuban missile crisis goes ballistic)

Likelier. Has been covered abundantly before.

- Sino-Soviet War of 1970-75

Or longer. One wonders if the USSR OTL ever had an actual objective in mind (does anyone know?): sure, they could probably take out the Chinese nuclear arsenal in a first-strike situation - or most of it, anyway - but then what? Mao is alive, and he’s not going to surrender, not matter how many Chinese die. And genociding China, besides the fallout irradiating much of the USSR, would be a REALLY BAD public relations dealie. An invasion would probably turn out as fun as it had been for the Japanese. And you thought Afghanistan was bad for the USSR…oy. I once read a short TL in which Nixon’s greatest triumph was fooling the Soviets into thinking they had a US green light for attacking China - led to a collapse of the USSR before 1980, IIRC. (How many dead Chinese this led to was left to the reader’s imagination).


- Hostage War of 1979-80 (US invasion of Iran)

ASB. The US army was still at a low ebb post-Vietnam, even if a big buildup had begun. Even if Saddam Hussein gave us basing rights, an invasion of Iran would just lead to dead hostages - the Ayatollah isn’t going to blink. And there’s the whole “piss off the USSR” thing, in an era when the Right were all screaming that the USSR had surpassed us militarily. Not to mention that you seem to be confusing President Carter with McCain on crack.

- India-Pakistan War of 2000

India is badly hurt, but survives. Pakistan may well cease to exist as a country. Osama Bin Ladeen visits a few destroyed cities, and junks his plan for the hijackings, feeling that anything he could do after this would look like peanuts by comparison. Maybe he can overthrow the Saudis, instead. Not sure how this plays out in the US election, which was so close as it is - can Bush downplay the Republican’s rep as the “more likely to get us into a nuclear war party” and play up the Democrats rep as the “less likely to scare foreigners shitless” party? Certainly a much bigger “ban the nukes” movement internationally.

Gore vs Bush Civil War

ASB. (If an ASB shows all democrats the events of the next 8 years, might happen. Otherwise…)

1949 Nuke Winter War (Atkins vs Groves at Manhattan Project)

Reference?

1940 Russian Attack on Germany (when Germany was busy in France)

Unlikely. Stalin expected a fight eventually, but had no idea France would fall so soon, and his military buildup wasn’t supposed to reach something like readiness before 1942...

1939 Stavka Coup

After the purge? Not very likely…

1939 Belgian Attack on Rhineland (after Germany attacked Poland)

Ok - now you’re confusing _Belgium_ with McCain. On crack.

1936 Stavka Coup

Likelier than 1939, although the army was always under tight political control in the USSR. In any event, the army was sufficiently “communized” by this point that even if a military man ends up holding the levers of power, we’re going to get Kruschev-Communism at best, not Gorbachev-Communism. Power struggles between army and party are likely to continue for some while as a result of this overturning of the “natural order” of things - Party commands, Army obeys - and even if it maintains the upper hand, the Army _needs_ the Party and the Secret Police just to run the place.

Stalin’s massive military-industrial buildup is likely slowed, as it becomes uncertain who’s leaving the camps and who’s coming in, who will give the orders and what the priorities will be. And, of course, decisions need to be made once 1938 has passed and it’s clear that France and the UK aren’t ready to fight Hitler…(on the positive side, this may be the TL in which Hitler’s ambassador is politely informed that while the USSR has no interest in conflicts between imperialist and regressive regimes, the first German solider to set foot east of Warsaw will find the whole Red Army coming to meet him.)

1936 French Rhineland Civil War (army mutinies when socialists order attack)

Don’t know enough about French politics of the time to say for sure, but smells of ASB. Soldiers generally don’t mutiny until they’ve been up to their lower lips in crap for some time.

1934 Newfoundland Default War (Newfies lost right to self government)

The Newfoundland legislature voted itself out of existence, you know.

1933 Roosevelt vs Hoover Civil War

ASB

1933 US vs Japan (china)

The US really, really didn’t want a war. (Watt-Evans did an amusing turn with this in “Truth, Justice, and the American Way” http://www.uchronia.net/bib.cgi/label.html?id=watttruthj )

1921 Italian Civil War

Probably won by the Right, which means Musso is even _more_ popular with right-wingers abroad. Or do you mean Musso vs. the government? i'd tend to think enough of the army will remain loyal to constituted authority for Musso to lose, although it would be messy...

1919 Indian Independence War

The Second Mutiny. The Indians lose, but the massive reorganization of government which takes place as a result of the mess leads to India gaining Dominion status in 1939. Jinnah becomes the first prime minister of a united India. Gahndi, if remembered at all, is remembered as a crusader for Untouchable rights. India mobilizes more resources and plays a larger role in WWII than OTL. The Islamic Revolution of 1957 is an ugly mess.

1915 UK vs Germany (after France conquered)

UK and Russia vs. Germany, no? I doubt Russia is knocked out of the war before 1916 - as superior as the German army is, the logistics of an invasion of the Russian heartland are even worse than they would be in 1941. Likely the Germans concentrate on knocking out the Russians rather than trying to strangle the UK; submarine warfare will piss off the US, which will be unfriendly to Germany as it is - the overrunning of France and the likely subsequent German outbreak of “victory disease” will make Germany look a bully and an aggressor to a degree it did not during the OTL stalemate years. Central Powers victory TL by the end of 1916, I imagine. Less blood spilled than OTL, and the Russians haven’t taken so much damage that the loonier left takes power, although the Czarist regime probably doesn’t survive the debacle. Of course, Round Two may be less fun altogether…

1914 Irish Independence War

Perhaps coinciding with a anti-united-Ireland mutiny by pro-Ulster elements in the armed forces? Could keep the British out of WWI, at least its opening stages.

1912 Balkans and Italy vs Austria and Turkey

Germany crush puny Italy! Grrrr!
(In other words, not likely without a rather earlier POD…)

1905 Russian Civil War

Might actually get a non-bonkers government of the Left/peasant parties out of this (the Czarists are simply NOT going to be cooperative): enough cross-national party loyalties there that Russia might hold onto at least some of its European territories (well, Poland will bolt, unless the Germans are threatening enough to make them go for some sort of autonomy or federation), and if they later reconquer Baku and Central Asia, who pre-1914 cares about what happens to a bunch of Muslims? (Well, the Ottomans do, but they’re not ready for a showdown with Russia). Japan occupies Manchuria.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Germans decide to intervene and aid the Kaiser’s good friend, Czar Nicholas. That could get quite messy, especially since the Germans are unlikely to accept payment for their services in free caviar or trips to Odessa.

1905 Franco-Prussian War II

Would be a Glorious German Victory, but it’s going to be hard to provoke the French into a fight they’d lose - mistranslated letters aren’t going to cut it this time - and Kaiser Wilhelm does not strike me as having the balls to, say, declare war on France for being French in public.

18?? Australian Independence War

Need a POD - that covers a bit of territory -

WWIII in 1979
The Northern hemisphere, at least, dies. Oh the embarrassment.

WWIII in 1957

Why? Neither side wanted a war at the time, and we weren’t at the “continual alert - Soviet missiles can arrive in 15 minutes” stage of things, so _accidental_ war is fairly unlikely.

2001 the american-european war of atomic genocide/the great burning
2003 WWIII between America,china and the islamic bloc
2002 war between china and taiwan
1932 civil war between Huey Long,FDR and Hoover

These are either ASB or need a previous POD.

Bruce

[Berra]

A second Ethiopian-Eritrean war to represent all the 3rd world wars we havent mentioned.