Justinian overthrown during the Nika riots

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Ladies and gents, this is all filler.

[Max Sinister]

Could his possible successor also fight the Persians successfully, or even reconquer the west? Especially the Vandal Empire doesn't seem that stable to me. In the worst case he's a kind of Phocas (a barracks' emperor from some time later, one of Byzantium's worst and bloodiest rulers). If he isn't at least above average, the Persians could take Syria, Palestine and Egypt, or even advance to Constantinople as they did under Heraklios. And in that case, there might not even be a Byzantine North Africa to flee to. The codification of Byzantine law also doesn't happen, which could also be important.

All in all, the empire is severely weakened, and it could fall very well to the Arabs.

[Midgard]

Most likely, things proceed as they have before Justinian. The Lombard invasion of Italy doesn't happen, since the Ostrogoths are strong enough to repel them; an Ostrogothic kingdom in Italy rises, while the Eastern Empire continues as it has before. If butterflies do not remove Islam, it will probably not get as far as in OTL, unless a whole bunch of other factors that happened in OTL (prolonged war between Byzantium and Persia that devastated both; earlier economic problems; plague, etc) occur. In the long run, the Empire loses Italy for good, but is more stable in its existing territories. Persia probably ends up better off too, with no Islamic conquest and subjugation of it to foreigh rulers.

[Max Sinister]

Hmm, good point about the war. I still expect that Islam is helped by the fact that the Monophysites and others felt suppressed by the orthodox. You can't defend a country very well if one half of the population, so to speak, prefers the Turk's turban to the cardinal's hat.

About the new emperor: Just checked it - it would be a Flavius Hypatius, nephew of Anastasios I. He is described as an incompetent army leader and an intrigant. If that guy has to lead Byzantium when the Persians attack and the plague strikes, expect the worst.

[Midgard]

Hmm, good point about the war. I still expect that Islam is helped by the fact that the Monophysites and others felt suppressed by the orthodox. You can't defend a country very well if one half of the population, so to speak, prefers the Turk's turban to the cardinal's hat.

About the new emperor: Just checked it - it would be a Flavius Hypatius, nephew of Anastasios I. He is described as an incompetent army leader and an intrigant. If that guy has to lead Byzantium when the Persians attack and the plague strikes, expect the worst.

I beg to differ a bit - Hypatius was not much of a leader, but at the time, the Byzantine state itself was in good enough shape to where it could have survived an incompetent Emperor. It was Justinian's exertions of resources to reconquer the West that put it in sufficiently bad shape to the fiscal crisis of late VIth century, which in turn led to Maurice's penny-pinching, and Phocas' disasters. Besides, the Byzantine bureacracy is still there, and with enough resources, they should be able to govern even if Hypatius does nothing but party his entire reign.

Finally, Hypatius' reign would probably be fairly short. He was not that young upon ascention AFAIK, and there had been no shortage of ambitious generals and politicians who would be able to take power. For example, Belisarius was already somewhat of a well-known name, and being that he was, at least at the time, somewhat of a Justinian loyalist, he might have been able to rally Justinian's supporters around himself and seriously challenge Hypatius for the throne. There would have probably been others as well. Hypatius' reign would have been a disaster ONLY if it followed Justinian's, not if it came before Justinian nearly bankrupted the Empire and did not concentrate on the frontiers where eventually invasions of Persians, Slavs, and Avars brought Byzantium to the very brink in less than a century.

[chrispi]

Hmm, good point about the war. I still expect that Islam is helped by the fact that the Monophysites and others felt suppressed by the orthodox. You can't defend a country very well if one half of the population, so to speak, prefers the Turk's turban to the cardinal's hat.

About the new emperor: Just checked it - it would be a Flavius Hypatius, nephew of Anastasios I. He is described as an incompetent army leader and an intrigant. If that guy has to lead Byzantium when the Persians attack and the plague strikes, expect the worst.
One could say that Justinian's destruction of Egypt (a crime comparable to Stalin's) gave birth to Islam for the very reasons you describe. It doesn't help that he looted the country to build the Hagia Sophia.

As for the Nika Revolt itself, it was a seminal moment in Byzantine constitutionalism, comparable to the French or American Revolutions; were it not crushed by Belisarius (imagine for a moment a riot at a basketball game that consumes the country, and then have Tommy Franks come in and shoot everybody in the stadium) the eastern Roman Empire would have formed some kind of constitutional monarchy instead of praetorianism.

[Max Sinister]

Constitutional Byzantium? Doesn't sound bad... if only the new emperor was a bit more competent... or the times weren't that interesting... or the bureaucracy and the military were willing to work together with the new order...

[DominusNovus]

As for the Nika Revolt itself, it was a seminal moment in Byzantine constitutionalism, comparable to the French or American Revolutions; were it not crushed by Belisarius (imagine for a moment a riot at a basketball game that consumes the country, and then have Tommy Franks come in and shoot everybody in the stadium) the eastern Roman Empire would have formed some kind of constitutional monarchy instead of praetorianism.
You know, thats an interesting take on it, I never thought of the revolts in that light.

[MerryPrankster]

You know, thats an interesting take on it, I never thought of the revolts in that light.

Neither did I. I thought it was a case of sports hooliganism writ large.

What started the riots?

EDIT: Here's the Wiki on it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nika_riots