The survivability of a Habsburg Mexico

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

What are the odds of the French and Maximilian's supporters defeating the liberals, assuming the Confederacy wins the ACW (so as to make US intervention less likely)?

[stevep]

What are the odds of the French and Maximilian's supporters defeating the liberals, assuming the Confederacy wins the ACW (so as to make US intervention less likely)?

What is there's a mixture of the two? Napoleon knows the union is hostile to his intervention and the confederacy needs help breaking the union blockage. If France recognises the Confederacy and opens trade routes this gives the south access to vital equipment and also possibly breaks the logjam in terms of diplomatic recognition. In return it recognises Maximillian as emperor and France gets access to southern cotton, possibly giving a help up in economic competition with Britain.

Steve

[Wendell]

What are the odds of the French and Maximilian's supporters defeating the liberals, assuming the Confederacy wins the ACW (so as to make US intervention less likely)?
Maybe the South could get some territorial concessions in the Mexican Northwest?

[Imajin]

Maybe the South could get some territorial concessions in the Mexican Northwest?
If I recall, France had asked for some land concessions from Mexico OTL (Sonora, IIRC), but Maximilian refused to sell- he seemed quite dedicated at keeping Mexico's integrity.

[Straha]

E'en if th' sooth did win aam skeptical abit th' lang term chances ay a habsburg mexico.

[Faeelin]

What are the odds of the French and Maximilian's supporters defeating the liberals, assuming the Confederacy wins the ACW (so as to make US intervention less likely)?


Here's the problem, as I see it. The French don't have the forces to subdue all of Mexico. And a defeated US will be, well, angry. It probably won't go to war with France after losing the Civil War, but it will be funneling weapons to Juarez.

The Mexican ulcer weakens the French more than OTL. But what happens next?

Perhaps President Seward, winning the election of 1868, sends troops south of the border to drive out Maximillian?

[Wendell]

If I recall, France had asked for some land concessions from Mexico OTL (Sonora, IIRC), but Maximilian refused to sell- he seemed quite dedicated at keeping Mexico's integrity.
He would also want to stay in power.

[JLCook]

And how much territory they control. If The CSA gains Arizona and New Mexico I find it hard to believe that the Union is going to have enough of a border with mexico to worry about intervention.

In fact, a defeated Union would possibly become very vengeful, BUT, they'd have far bigger fish to fry than anything done in Mexico.

If the French intervene enough in the ACW to enable a CSA victory, I foresee strong Union/Prussian(German) ties, possibly ties strong enough so that when Prussia and Bismarck go to war with France in 1871, they do it with active Union help.

Things look particularly poor for the French in 1914 also! By 1914, the CSA isn't going to have the industrial resources to come anywhere near matching the North---and in WWI, the USA and the CSA will be on opposite sides.

I predict that the Central powers will win, and that they will be doing it at the expense of France and the CSA in particular! In fact, WWI would be plenty of time too wait for the USA to get around to rectifying a Habsburg Mexico too!

[Wendell]

And how much territory they control. If The CSA gains Arizona and New Mexico I find it hard to believe that the Union is going to have enough of a border with mexico to worry about intervention.

In fact, a defeated Union would possibly become very vengeful, BUT, they'd have far bigger fish to fry than anything done in Mexico.

If the French intervene enough in the ACW to enable a CSA victory, I foresee strong Union/Prussian(German) ties, possibly ties strong enough so that when Prussia and Bismarck go to war with France in 1871, they do it with active Union help.

Things look particularly poor for the French in 1914 also! By 1914, the CSA isn't going to have the industrial resources to come anywhere near matching the North---and in WWI, the USA and the CSA will be on opposite sides.

I predict that the Central powers will win, and that they will be doing it at the expense of France and the CSA in particular! In fact, WWI would be plenty of time too wait for the USA to get around to rectifying a Habsburg Mexico too!
Unless the CSA is neutral in the Great war. Even so, Britain is screwed.

[The Gunslinger]

Would Britain even intervene if a war looked that grim? With the USA allied with Germany, I would think that Britain would be even more reluctant to join an alliance than they were in OTL.

[stevep]

Would Britain even intervene if a war looked that grim? With the USA allied with Germany, I would think that Britain would be even more reluctant to join an alliance than they were in OTL.

A lot would depend on how things developed. France's position would be a lot weaker but would the hostility of the US last that long? Would the US be as strong as it was in 1914 - potentially that is? With a separate CSA it has lost land and population. It has also probably seen significant social changes. The presence of a large neighbouring state to which it is bitterly hostile probably means it has maintained much larger military forces than in OTL. While this means it won't take as long to mobilise as the US did in WWI the economic costs will probably mean a smaller economy. Also you might see a reaction against the French intervention making the US more anti-European. In which case it could reduce immigration to the US during that period further reducing economic development. Also you still have the strong history of American isolationism to overcome.

If there is the sort of situation in 1914 then Britain would probably be more likely to get involved. It would need to, to maintain any balance of power as an expansionist Germany coupled with a militarised US would be too dangerous. It would be nasty for Britain but better than the alternative.

Steve