What If Mahmud II reforms would have been extended and continued?

[Resat]

Just line of thought I have been following for a while.
Mahmud II was the first great reformer since Suleymen the Magnificent.
Under his leadership the Janissary Corps was rather brutally disbanded, and the Medrese schoolsystem was enchanced.
Now what would have happened if he would have went through with his reforms?

1.) Nizami-Cedid. The new military furthered and fundedç
2.) Naval reform. Avoiding the devastating defeats in the 1830's.
3.) Establishment of the Mülkiye school in Istanbul 30 years earlier.
4.) Graceful seperation from Greece, hence the non-invasion of Anatolia by the Viceroy of Egypt.
5.) Using von Moltkes skill to fully redefine Ottoman military doctrine
6.) The Ceding of Serbia to Austria, dropping the hot Balkan potatoe into their lap

etc. etc.

I will try to expand on these permutations of History in the following days, and I would greatly appreciate your input in this.

Thanks in advance
Yours truthfully

Resat

[Resat]

Details:
1826:
*The Auspicious Incident (in Turkish Vaka-i Hayriye)
Sultan Mahmud Han II destroys the Janissary Corps Brutaly, even retired soldiers and officers are dragged out of their Houses and butchered. The Sultan does not stop there but also orders the execution of the Sheik-ul-Islam, and establishes himself as the new one.

*The new artillery corps, who aided in the destruction of the Janissaries (together with the Sipahis), is increased in number and armament.

*European military personnel is hired immediatly to reorganize the new army.
Artillery restructuring is done according to French standards. The Spahis are gradually disbanded and replaced by modern light and heavy cavallery (German Ulan and Hussar system). The infantery is redefined by von Moltke himself.
1827:
*Military changes continue.

*Mahmud II still refuses to have children, leaving the throne without a male heir in case of his death. This basically Paralyses internal opposition, since even his worst enemies believe that the throne has to stay in Mahmuds bloodline.

*Greek upprising is ended, the Ottoman Army leaves the country

*Muhammad Ali and Ibrahim Pasha andtheir male heirs are executed, and their families disowned

*Following v.Moltke advice Mahmud II Han abolishes heredetary officership, and establishes merit system

*New university founded in Istanbul. Mülkiye's sole purpose is to crank out burocrats and technocrats for the empire.

*Harbiye School Founded. In principle a modern military academy

*Russia declares war on Ottoman empire

[Verence]

Details:
1826:
*The Auspicious Incident (in Turkish Vaka-i Hayriye)
Sultan Mahmud Han II destroys the Janissary Corps Brutaly, even retired soldiers and officers are dragged out of their Houses and butchered. The Sultan does not stop there but also orders the execution of the Sheik-ul-Islam, and establishes himself as the new one.

*The new artillery corps, who aided in the destruction of the Janissaries (together with the Sipahis), is increased in number and armament.

*European military personnel is hired immediatly to reorganize the new army.
Artillery restructuring is done according to French standards.
1827:

*Muhammad Ali and Ibrahim Pasha andtheir male heirs are executed, and their families disowned
Surely the reorganisation of the Turkish wouldn't have far enough in a year to be able to defeat Mehmet Ali??

[Resat]

Surely the reorganisation of the Turkish wouldn't have far enough in a year to be able to defeat Mehmet Ali??
Thanks for the question.

There are couple of options:

1.) Nizami-Cedid is able to defeat Mehmet Ali Pasha, since his troops are on par with the defeated Janissaries.
2.)He is assasinated, which was an accepted form of dismissing officials

One mustnt forget that the reorganisation started much earlier than Mahmuds reign. It just was slowed down by the Janissaries.

[Verence]

Thanks for the question.

There are couple of options:

1.) Nizami-Cedid is able to defeat Mehmet Ali Pasha, since his troops are on par with the defeated Janissaries.
2.)He is assasinated, which was an accepted form of dismissing officials

One mustnt forget that the reorganisation started much earlier than Mahmuds reign. It just was slowed down by the Janissaries. Funny you should mention Mahmud and Mehmet. In the thread titled May , 1821 Map, Ottoman Empire is divided into a Kingdom of Turkey, Sultanate of Baghdad and Sultanate of Egypt. In reply to that map, I imagined that Baghdad would be under the rule of a member of the Osmanli dynasty and Mahmud was one of the names I had in mind

[Resat]

Funny you should mention Mahmud and Mehmet. In the thread titled May , 1821 Map, Ottoman Empire is divided into a Kingdom of Turkey, Sultanate of Baghdad and Sultanate of Egypt. In reply to that map, I imagined that Baghdad would be under the rule of a member of the Osmanli dynasty and Mahmud was one of the names I had in mind
Probably because he was one of the male heirs in line for the throne of the empire. One problem with the ottomans was that they just had too many heirs. Ok granted there werent many wars for the crown, but it left to a multi-headedness of the clan. Just because the heir usually hated everything the predecessor did.
Killing of the sibling was one of the methods avoiding that

[Martel]

I'm not sure just how effective the Nizami-Cedid would be. The Tanzimat Reforms in the 1830s still weren't enough to deal with the Russians. And why are Mehmet Ali's troops only as effective as the Janassaries? My distant memory of that period was that Mehmet Ali had a pretty modern force after he destroyed the Mamlukes (the same strategy was used by the Ottomans later).
Does this timeline assume that Selim III lived long enough to carry some of the initial reforms of the Nizami-Cedid or, like OTL, Mehmet picked up where Selim left off?

Also fratricide was pretty passe in the Ottoman Empire by the 19th Century. Mostly male heirs were left in the harem wing, the so-called kaffes (cages), to keep them under control but available to rule if needed. It didn't do wonders for their mental health though. One sultan, Selim III I think, was weeping as he was taken to his coronation because he assumed he was being taken to be killed (the heirs were often murdered in the typical harem intrigue).

[Resat]

I'm not sure just how effective the Nizami-Cedid would be. The Tanzimat Reforms in the 1830s still weren't enough to deal with the Russians. And why are Mehmet Ali's troops only as effective as the Janassaries? My distant memory of that period was that Mehmet Ali had a pretty modern force after he destroyed the Mamlukes (the same strategy was used by the Ottomans later).
Does this timeline assume that Selim III lived long enough to carry some of the initial reforms of the Nizami-Cedid or, like OTL, Mehmet picked up where Selim left off?

Also fratricide was pretty passe in the Ottoman Empire by the 19th Century. Mostly male heirs were left in the harem wing, the so-called kaffes (cages), to keep them under control but available to rule if needed. It didn't do wonders for their mental health though. One sultan, Selim III I think, was weeping as he was taken to his coronation because he assumed he was being taken to be killed (the heirs were often murdered in the typical harem intrigue).
The Balkan Troops under Mehmet Ali Pasha were quite effective against the rebells and standard Janissaries, but please do not forget that this time General v. Moltke is at the helm. I also believe that I said the Ibrahim and Mehmet Pascha were executedand/or assasinated, which would have been a quite possible scenario.
About Fatricide I can only say that a disstressed Mahmud would have quite able to get rid of his brothers (if there were any). I also Implied with my last statement that the throne would go only from father to son and not sideways as it became later on (Male side Uncle to nephew).
And yes you are right there two Sultans I know of who were quite crazy when they ascended to the throne. One of them was Ibrahim the Crazy (Deli Ibrahim), and to the empires luck he became Sultan twice.

[Resat]

I accept the Idea that the new troops still would have had a hard time against the better trained and Veteran Albanians of Mehmet Pasha and Ibrahim Pasha. But my Idea is to leave Grecce to itself, and for it to become an independant State.
Important is that there will be no Viceroy (Khediv) in Egypt. I also do not believe that the Ottoman empire should be able to hold onto Serbia, I am trying to find a way to leave it to Austria.
Any Ideas?

[Resat]

*Russia Declares war and marches into Bessarabia

*The newly formed Nizamı Cedid has no standing chance against the veteran Russian Army. Russia quickly marches into Romania and Serbia.

*Ottoman Balkan Army is rooted in Serbia

*Austria intervenes on behalf of Turkey, Russia must be denied an ice free port

*Troops from Istanbul are rushed to the Balkans, v. Moltke personally leading the Army


Any Comments?