Japanese Challenge 1945

[NapoleonXIV]

It is August of 1945, less than a week after the Potsdam Declaration and the entry of the USSR into war with the Japanese. The suicide of Robert Oppenheimer in December of 1944 means that the American Atom bomb will not be ready until at least June of 1946. The US has managed to cut off Japan from it's main supplies and taken most of the Pacific Empire, but Saipan still holds out and the invasions of Okinawa and Iwo Jima have been expensive failures. The B29s are being effectively held off by Japanese developments of German secret weapons, rocket planes and jets, plans for which were brought to them by submarines in 1944 and 45 just before the Reich fell in May of 1945, as in OTL.

And now Truman is reliably informed that the Japanese are ready to explode their own nuclear bomb.

What can Truman do to end the war quickly with a Japanese unconditional surrender? Can he do anything? And what might happen to the world if Japan gets the bomb first at this late date?

[Torqumada]

Oppenheimer was not the most important physicists working on the Manhattan project. He was the team leader, put there by Groves to make sure the thing ran on time. I doubt that the work would be delayed another year, unless Oppenheimer's suicide also resulted in all of the relevant data disappearing with him. You might get a few months, but not a year.

Torqumada

[CalBear]

Since none of this could happen IOTL without the intervention of ASB's, perhaps you should move the thread to the correct forum.

[Anaxagoras]

The B29s are being effectively held off by Japanese developments of German secret weapons, rocket planes and jets, plans for which were brought to them by submarines in 1944 and 45 just before the Reich fell in May of 1945, as in OTL.

Where are the Japanese getting the fuel for these jet fighters?

[NapoleonXIV]

Since none of this could happen IOTL without the intervention of ASB's, perhaps you should move the thread to the correct forum.

ASB's aren't necessary to get 4 subs with plans for the jets, the Natter and the ME 163 to Japan by early 44. ASB's also aren't necessary to have the Japanese then develop these weapons a good deal further than they did in OTL.

If they have more developed jets and rocket planes then its that, and not ASB's that might make the invasions of Iwo, Okinawa and even Saipan, fail, (or maybe not, maybe the US just fucks up royally, still doesnt require ASB)and if Saipan is still being held they would still have some protection (maybe not a lot, but some) for fuel from the areas they still held that had fuel, some of which had been bypassed, (I fervently hope;) )

If they have the fuel and the planes it doesn't require ASB for them to be effective enough that their bombmaking facility is not destroyed and it doesn't require ASB for it to get along along better than ours, especially since Oppenheimer, Szilard, Teller and Hans Bethe were all killed in a car accident drag racing with Feynman:rolleyes: (ok, that does need ASB's but it's too late in the thread to move it.:rolleyes: )

[CalBear]

ASB's aren't necessary to get 4 subs with plans for the jets, the Natter and the ME 163 to Japan by early 44. ASB's also aren't necessary to have the Japanese then develop these weapons a good deal further than they did in OTL.

If they have more developed jets and rocket planes then its that, and not ASB's that might make the invasions of Iwo, Okinawa and even Saipan, fail, (or maybe not, maybe the US just fucks up royally, still doesnt require ASB) and if Saipan is still being held they would still have some protection (maybe not a lot, but some) for fuel from the areas they still held that had fuel, some of which had been bypassed, (I fervently hope;) )

If they have the fuel and the planes it doesn't require ASB for them to be effective enough that their bombmaking facility it not destroyed and it doesn't
require ASB for it to get along along better than ours, especially since Oppenheimer, Szilard, Teller and Hans Bethe were all killed in a car accident drag racing with Feynman:rolleyes: (ok, that does need ASB's but it's too late in the thread to move it.)


The Japanese couldn't move anything into the Home Islands or from the Dutch East Indies (like fuel). Unlike the U.S., which could produce new bottoms as fast as the U-boats sank them (perhaps faster), the Japanese had no hope of winning the submarine war once the U.S. got the torpedo issue resolved (which was inevitible) The Saipan landing were going to succeed, no way to stop them except divine intervention. The same goes for Iwo & Okinawa.

No fuel, constant bombing, no industry left, no hope of building anything in secret the size of a nuclear reactor, no plans for a reactor, no help from the Nazi's regarding the construction of a nuclear weapon (since they had failed to produce one, or even come reasonably close). Not much hope of outproducing the Germans or, more importantly, the U.S.

Sounds ASB to me.

[NapoleonXIV]

What, you're saying the torpedo issue HAD to be resolved by whenever it was? That it couldn't possibly have taken 6 mos or a year (or maybe till 1945) longer?

And c'mon, Saipan, Iwo, OKi , anyone of them couldn't have had some 2nd looie snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? and this demoralizes everybody for the other two

And they had no fuel at all? How were they still fighting?

Yes, I am proposing that for a 6 month period they get all the good luck and we get all the bad, but hey, that happens in wars sometimes, its why we fight them instead of just tallying up the resources on each side and declaring a winner. (tho I agree that would be the best way)

ASBs are time traveling unicorns ISOTing all the Americans back to 1274 with no weapons or armor, not just a run of outrageously good (but still possible)fortune for one side or the other.:p

[greenknight]

The Japanese couldn't move anything into the Home Islands or from the Dutch East Indies (like fuel). Unlike the U.S., which could produce new bottoms as fast as the U-boats sank them (perhaps faster), the Japanese had no hope of winning the submarine war once the U.S. got the torpedo issue resolved (which was inevitible) The Saipan landing were going to succeed, no way to stop them except divine intervention. The same goes for Iwo & Okinawa.

No fuel, constant bombing, no industry left, no hope of building anything in secret the size of a nuclear reactor, no plans for a reactor, no help from the Nazi's regarding the construction of a nuclear weapon (since they had failed to produce one, or even come reasonably close). Not much hope of outproducing the Germans or, more importantly, the U.S.

Sounds ASB to me.
Totally right. Japan at the end of the war might as well be on the moon as far as supplies goes.

[Karlos]

Don't know if it's feasible but...
Sometime in 1944 that infamous japanese biological unit in Korea develops a killer virus. They send it to the USA by one of their paper balloons that go with the wind. The virus is something unknown, spreads in weeks and kills millions in USA mainland, spreading to armed forces in the islands. All efforts are diverged to lab research and the Manhattan project slows down, and also does military effort in the ETO. By the end of the year, the americans agree to a ceasefire in the pacific.

[stevep]

[quote=Karlos]Don't know if it's feasible but...
Sometime in 1944 that infamous japanese biological unit in Korea develops a killer virus. They send it to the USA by one of their paper balloons that go with the wind. The virus is something unknown, spreads in weeks and kills millions in USA mainland, spreading to armed forces in the islands. All efforts are diverged to lab research and the Manhattan project slows down, and also does military effort in the ETO. By the end of the year, the americans agree to a ceasefire in the pacific.[/quote That's about the only realistic [kind of] way I could see the Japanese winning a cease-fire by this time. However, while I think they might be mad enough to try something like that if they found such a virus, think of the implications. How many balloons would the Japanese have to set adrift to give a reasonable chance for one to reach the US? What happens to all the others:eek:. Not to mention if you have something that spreads fairly easily with all the air-flights criss-crossing the world how do you keep track of it?

Furthermore, if the US realises what has happened, or even suspects it, I can see a new bombing campaign against Japan. Given the population in Japan are already desperately malnuriced and lack of medical resources I wouldn't like to be in Japan then.:(

[Karlos]

I think the japanese had studied the Pacific air waves so that their ballons landen only in US west coast. Anyway, they might send them only to, say, Hawaii, to seriously disrupt US war effort. I admit it sounds more like a Sci-Fi novel, but can't think of a another way to give the japanese a chance.