AH Challenge: Japan gives up first

[JimmyJimJam]

Here's the challenge, its simple really: have Japan surrender to the allies BEFORE Germany does. It can be a day before, a month, a year, whatever. Extra points if Japan surrenders to the Allies before the US enters the war.

Lots of extra points if Japan is the FIRST country in WWII to surrender.

[NapoleonXIV]

December 7, 1941. After some indecision Admiral Philips decides his BBS will meet the Japanese in Singapore instead of trying to intercept them at sea. As a result they are able to assist in the defense of Singapore in Feb and it is successful

April 18, 1942. Doolittle raids Tokyo, however because of a freak maintenance error crossing the bomb bay controls with the engine ignition wires the Bombers find their engines quitting over Tokyo when they drop their bombs, which are of a new and experimental incendiary type. Most of the planes, still heavily laden with fuel to get to China, crash into the wood and paper residential section of the Japanese capital. Fires from the bombs and the planes combine and a completely unexpected firestorm results, devastating the city and killing thousands.

June 4-7 The Battle of Midway is an unqualified disaster. Besides the 4 carriers sunk in OTL all ships in both Japanese groups are sunk or heavily damaged. Admiral Yamamoto goes down with the Yamato.

June 30. The Emperor commits seppuku, ordering Tojo and the war party leaders to accompany him into the next world. His appointed successor contacts the US and offers reparations of Japans's entire GDP for 1943, to be paid over 1943-46, along with withdrawal from all conquered territory, plus an offer of alliance against Germany. Roosevelt, stipulating that there must be war crimes trials in 1943, accepts.

[Max Sinister]

All the planes at the same time? That would be very strange indeed...

[NapoleonXIV]

All the planes at the same time? That would be very strange indeed...

Freakish but not impossible (I speculate:D ) There is a correction made to the maintenance manual and a mistake in the correction. Mechanics, trying to be extra conscientous, check the planes again and see that the wires are wired 'wrong'. The correction is the work of a moment and no mechanics consider it worth discussing with other crews, especially since the actual mistake which was being corrected in the manual, entailed about an hours hard work. Ironically, it is the few planes whose crews are somewhat lax that survive

Or maybe just the bombs are incendiary and are dropped on Tokyo's residential area, though I doubt that those few bombs could start a firestorm even there.

[Alratan]

How about the following:

Churchill decides not to mess around in Greece and to win first in North Africa, and also sends less to Russia in lend-lease when they enter the war.

Plan Matador is used in Malaya, and Admiral Philips has a little more sense and a little less bad luck. The Japanese are given a severe kicking when they attack there, and although they make some initial progress, grind down into stalemate there. Without Singapore, they cannot attack the NEI.

During 1942 the Japanese economy implodes, they simply run out of oil and essential strategic material.

At some point a set piece naval battle against the Americans is lost very badly, in a last throw of the dice using up a stupid amount of the Japanese strategic oil reserve.

By the time winter comes, Japan has lost in all but name. Tojo and the war cabinet apologise to the Emperor and commit suicide in late November, and in December the Japanese ask for terms. After some discussion, this is accepted by the Allies, in January 1943.

[Derek Jackson]

1) US forces more on the alert on December 6-7, plus flying fortresses arrive on Hawaii on December 6th.

2) Japanese faced with effective opposition over Pearl Harborn (when probably short of fuel)

3) Japanese fleet hit by combination of land based and carriers later December 7th

4) Germans are prepared for D Day where it happens.

[Wendell]

December 7, 1941. After some indecision Admiral Philips decides his BBS will meet the Japanese in Singapore instead of trying to intercept them at sea. As a result they are able to assist in the defense of Singapore in Feb and it is successful

April 18, 1942. Doolittle raids Tokyo, however because of a freak maintenance error crossing the bomb bay controls with the engine ignition wires the Bombers find their engines quitting over Tokyo when they drop their bombs, which are of a new and experimental incendiary type. Most of the planes, still heavily laden with fuel to get to China, crash into the wood and paper residential section of the Japanese capital. Fires from the bombs and the planes combine and a completely unexpected firestorm results, devastating the city and killing thousands.

June 4-7 The Battle of Midway is an unqualified disaster. Besides the 4 carriers sunk in OTL all ships in both Japanese groups are sunk or heavily damaged. Admiral Yamamoto goes down with the Yamato.

June 30. The Emperor commits seppuku, ordering Tojo and the war party leaders to accompany him into the next world. His appointed successor contacts the US and offers reparations of Japans's entire GDP for 1943, to be paid over 1943-46, along with withdrawal from all conquered territory, plus an offer of alliance against Germany. Roosevelt, stipulating that there must be war crimes trials in 1943, accepts.
The U.S. doesn't insist on taking Micronesia?

[Hermanubis]

Here's the challenge, its simple really: have Japan surrender to the allies BEFORE Germany does. It can be a day before, a month, a year, whatever. Extra points if Japan surrenders to the Allies before the US enters the war.

Lots of extra points if Japan is the FIRST country in WWII to surrender.
Maybe the easiest way would be by making the Germans last a lot longer, maybe by finnishing off the Soviets? Don't think you could get the Japanese to surrender before Germany with out the United States, though...

[stevep]

It would be possible, but very unlikely I think. You would need at the least say the Churchill avoids Greece and knocks over Libya in early 41 option mentioned. I don't think it would actually prevent the Japanese invading the Dutch Indies as this was already under way before Malaya surrendered and didn't use troops from there. However they could have been stopped and given a very bloody nose in Malaya and with forces free Britain might have got enough to cling onto enough of Sumarta and Java until the Japanese economy really gives way. Even then it will be a long haul.

The other option is find some was to either prevent barbarossa or, possibly more likely, have some peace deal in the east after Hitler is killed overthrown. While Germany slogs it out with Britain and the US Stalin takes the battered but experienced and well equipped Red Army and avenges 1904. [This would have to presume no war between the US and Japan at the historical point however I just realised:o!}

Steve

[Torqumada]

. Extra points if Japan surrenders to the Allies before the US enters the war.

Ummm there really aren't any Allies for Japan to fight BEFORE the USA enters WW2. The only people the Japanese were fighting prior to Dec 7th were the Chinese. Once Dec 7th happened then the Japanese attacked the Britain, the Dutch etc... The only way for the above to happen would be for Japan to immediately surrender before the USA declares war on Japan.

Torqumada

[Tom_B]

Need a combination of 2 things:

1] Germany does not declare war on the US. FDR eventually finds a way to get war declared on Germany but to get that he must publicly proclaim a Japan first strategy.

2] Things go worse for Japan. Maybe Wake is relieved and somebody better than Mac is defending the PI.

[Mike Stearns]

A Bomb research goes alot faster then in OTL and the bomb is tested in November/December of 1943 and actually dropped sometime in 1944 instead of 1945.

[JimmyJimJam]

Ummm there really aren't any Allies for Japan to fight BEFORE the USA enters WW2. The only people the Japanese were fighting prior to Dec 7th were the Chinese. Once Dec 7th happened then the Japanese attacked the Britain, the Dutch etc... The only way for the above to happen would be for Japan to immediately surrender before the USA declares war on Japan.

Torqumada
There could have been Allies before the US enters. This is AH after all. Would it take ASBs for Japan to surrender to China?

[Blaine Hess]

Maybe the easiest way would be by making the Germans last a lot longer, maybe by finnishing off the Soviets? Don't think you could get the Japanese to surrender before Germany with out the United States, though...

How about another simple one. FDR doesnt give the nod to the Europe First Strategy. America sends just enough Army units and Lend Lease to maintain the status quo to Britain ans the USSR on the reasoning that Japan is the imminent threat and Germany can be dealt with later.

[Cockroach]

Minor PoD: A Japanese convoy to Malaya moves a few knots slower.
Major PoD: The evening of the 9th of December 1941. The Radar on HMS Prince of Wales functions properly. Hence Force Z spots and engages a Japanese cruiser force. The Japanese are taken by suprise and the cruisers MIKUMA and MOGAMI are reduced to chared wrecks before the Japs can get a coordinated response. The Japanese Destroyers manage to put a pair of "Long Lance" torpedos into HMS Repulse and to sink the Destroyer HMAS Vampire but by that time the Japanese cruiser SUZUYA has also been badly beaten up. The surviving Japanese vessels withdraw and when the news reaches the convoys near the landing the merchantmen withdraw while not yet fully unloaded (in OTL most ships had been unloaded by this point).

PoW returns to Singapore before being ordered back to safety while Repulse gets wiped out by an air attack the next day. But the damage has already been done, the Japs are on the beaches but lack any heavy weapons... they are simply unable to advance. Malaya turns from a two month cake-walk (OTL) into a six month meat-grinder. While the Japs do eventually reach Singapore their troops have taken such major losses and so much fuel has been used that the conquest of the East Indies is much slower than OTL and opperations in the Pacific are much reduced.

At the same time the poms are buisily assembling a new fleet in the Indian Ocean (more or less the fleet (http://www.navweaps.com/index_oob/OOB_WWII_Pacific/OOB_WWII_Indian_Ocean.htm) from OTL but plus PoW and most of the ships that were histrically lost in the East Indies). At the same time the Yanks are rebuilding their Pacific Fleet...
Now with fewer Islands for the allies to retake in the Pacific and no offensive to beat back in PNG things should move quicker. Of cause there is also the issue of fuel shortages which could bring the Japs to a much more rapid stop...

[Torqumada]

There could have been Allies before the US enters. This is AH after all. Would it take ASBs for Japan to surrender to China?

Yeah, but I thought that all things being equal, we had to come up with a sinlge POD to get the above to happen. Now you are asking for Japan to be at war with Great Britian and the other European powers before attacking the USA. Why would it attack the USA is it were attacking the European powers first? Would it chance sending its most powerful forces thousands of miles away from combat against an enemy to attack a neutral party?

Torqumada

[Hendryk]

While it's commonly assumed that Japan tried to fight to the bitter end, I have come across different points of view. According to Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, director of the Center for Cold War Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Japan may have surrendered months earlier if it hadn't been for the fact that the middleman they chose for the negociations, the Soviet Union, was less than interested in earnestly forwarding their overtures to the USA. Stalin, in fact, wanted the war in the Pacific to drag on so that, after dealing with Germany, he could grab the Japanese sphere of influence in North-East Asia. For more details, check Hasegawa's book, Racing the Enemy: Stalin, Truman, and the Surrender of Japan.

If this analysis is corroborated, then Japan could have surrendered ahead of Germany if it hadn't made the mistake of choosing the USSR as a middleman. Perhaps Japanese diplomats resort to the Swiss?

[Blaine Hess]

Yeah having a sincere third party would have helped. There was still the conditional v. unconditional surrender issue. Still, and honest broker may have been able to explain to the Japanese that although the US wouldnt back off unconditional surrender, they planned on keeping the Emperor in place.

Funny you mention Switzerland. There were some feelers put out by the Japanese Naval Attache in Switzerland to America (either the US Embassy or OSS). Problem was the Americans determined from an early stage this guy had no authority to negotiate anything.

[JimmyJimJam]

Yeah, but I thought that all things being equal, we had to come up with a sinlge POD to get the above to happen. Now you are asking for Japan to be at war with Great Britian and the other European powers before attacking the USA. Why would it attack the USA is it were attacking the European powers first? Would it chance sending its most powerful forces thousands of miles away from combat against an enemy to attack a neutral party?

Torqumada
It doesnt have to be just a single POD. It can be as many or as few as you like.