Battle of the Falklands 1914 POD

[mitch]

Assume that the battle goes as record in the history books however lessons learned the hard way at the battle of Jutland are identified in Dec 1914.
P.O.D.

Near fatal accidents on Invincible and Inflexible towards the end of the engagement at the Falklands results in a full Magazine safety inspection of all ships, checks identify fatal flaws in procedures for the movement of propellant from magazine in 1915.
Royal Navy 15ft Range Finders found wanting during battle conditions and spotting procedures found to be too slow and unable to take account of target ship course alterations at extreme ranges. 25ft base length range finder installations brought forward to 1915 and new system of range spotting introduced 1916.
Interrogation of survives (US Style) reveal possible problem with shells breaking up on impact with armour. This confirmed in trials 1915.If the above problems were identified in December 1914 and rectified prior to the battle of Jutland would they have made a big difference?

In my opinion:

The Royal Navy lost EIGHT major warships to internal explosions (including 3 BC at Jutland) during WW1 if the above had happened in 1914 some may have been saved.

15ft range finder was ok for fleet practice ranges but hampered accurate shooting at longer rangers often out by as much as a 1000 yards. A 25ft Range finder such as that ordered after Jutland would have improved range accuracy, if coupled with the changes in spotting adopted in 1917. These changes would have increased the number of hit inflicted by the Grand Fleet from around 70 to more like 200.

A serious defect found after Jutland was that if a shell hit armour at an angle a typical 15inch shell could not be expected to perforate unbroken even 6 inch plate at 20 degrees from a right angle. This is why the German Fleet was able to take such punishment especially the Battle Cruisers. New shell started to be delivered by the end of 1916 and the fleet was about 30% done by Sep 1918. A partial outfit was therefore possible prior to Jutland if identified early 1915.

So POD Question?

So imagine the damage that 200 shells of 12, 13.5, 14 and 15 inches functioning correctly with the fire control improvements available prior to Jutland but not implemented until after, would have had during Jutland?

[Michael B]

It is going to take time to refit the fleet with the new range finders and extra magazine protection not to mention replacing every shell in the Fleet when manufacture of them for the Western Front is always never enough. The least that can be expected is Jutland being "deferred" until the autumn of 1915 at the earliest

[Redbeard]

I basically agree with your opinion, and I note that you focus more on the different effect on the Germans (of better shells and rangefinders) more than you focus on smaller losses among the British.

If basing the analysis on the OTL hits, but with better shells, the result is most certainly to be much bigger German losses. I don't recall at the momemt exactly which ships, but IIRC only Von der Tann (or was it Moltke?) of the Battlecruisers took few hits only, and in the battleline at least one of the battleships is to be in serious trouble. So instead of only German dreadnought lost (Lützow) we might have also Seydlitz and Derfflinger and at least one battleship sunk, plus at least one BC heavily damaged.

Even if the German losses are only equal to the British the Germans simply doesn't have as much to take those losses in, and without the scorecard of losses inflicetd to boost about the strategic defeat of the German Navy is impossible to hide. As the strategic defeat is still there it will not necessarily change the war significantly, but I will not exclude a serious influence on German morale.

If is is a clear British victory I could imagine that the Royal Navy feeling in the moode to "win the war all by themselves". Could be in reviving the plans about a Baltic adventure - i.e. getting control over the Danish straits (Zealand, Copenhagen, Øresund) and thereafter landing a Russian Army on the German Baltic coast.

From the start of WWI the Danish straits had been heavily mined though, and protected by heavy fortifications (up to 14" guns), and Copenhagen itself had a faily modern forification by WWI standards. So taking Zealand and Copenhagen can easily have Galipoli look easy in comparison. At least 150.000 troops and heavy artillery are probably needed, more if the operation can't be a surprise attack. Before the siege of Copenhagen can be started you need to sweep and control all the way around Zealand, as the German navy otherwise can supply and reinforce Copenhagen from behind the minefields blocking British entrance into the Baltic.

And even if this succeeds, you still have the main operation of landing a main Russian army in Pommerania and have it march on Berlin.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[mitch]

In response to Michael B the Range Finders were ordered straight after Juland and fitted prior to the end of War. All new ships in build and onwards 30ft Range Finders were ordered. It follows that with 18months between the battle of the Falklands and Jutland there would be plenty of time to fit the Range Finders that were available. Shells for Navy use came from a different line and therefore didn't effect Army supplies remember the Navy was doing continues gunnery shoot to remain at peak performance, these shells would need replacing.

In response to Steffen Redbeard I think the main effect would be a significant number of German ships disabled or unable to maintain station during the two three daylight engagements which should have resulted in a second day of action in which destroyers / cruisers would help finish them of with torpedoes. Only Fisher was keen on the Baltic with his light B/C.
I’m going to assume that a significant number of the German fleet about half are lost or out of action for a long time 6 to 12 months. German returns to submarines a lot sooner end of 1916. However with a small threat more destroyers and cruisers are released for convoying.
Looking at a lot of the photo’s taken of the ships returning to port and the position of the hits if the shells had worked correctly a lot of the German ships would have suffered engine room hits.

I would like to think that by the time Jutland came along attacking a mine field to get into the Baltic would have resulted in that person taking early retirement With the light Battle Crisers never being built and a second Hood ordered.

[Tom_B]

If the Run to the South and the Run to the North are going much worse worse for the Germans there is a good chance Scheer would have called off the pursuit before Jellicoe crosses his T. So the RN loses nothing more than a few DD while 1st SG loses Lutzow and Seydlitz. If Jellicoe still guesses wrong about the route home there still is no June 1 engagement.

So much for the nice wargame bragging rights stuff.

Long term impacts:

All remaining German fantasies of a major surface battle victory are evaporated. Resources for the fleet are still lower than OTL (eg. construction of Mackensen & sisters is halted). More resources for both U-Boats and the Heer. And when we get to 1918 the suicide attack by the HSF which prompted the mutiny and unravelled Germany is much less likely to happen.

Conclusion: The Great War ends on the 12th hour of the 12 day of the 12th month.