Kulikovo - a Russian disaster

[Soyuz]

What if Jagiello (sp?) arrived 2 days earlier, just 1 day before the battle instead of 1 day after it and with the combined Lithuanian-Mongol army with numerical superiority more than 2:1, they completely anihilate the Russians. What is the full range of effects of this POD?

[Rasputin]

...erm...would you care to elaborate on exactly when this all happened?

[Archdevil]

Battle of Kulikovo on Wikipedia. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kulikovo)

[Rasputin]

My...this would actually be pretty important. For one thing, it would delay the formation of Russia as a unified entity, and would also extend the presence of the Mongols a good few decades longer. However, I'm not sure the Mongols could have remained in as pre-eminent a position as they were over the longer term, with logistics and economics being what they were, but for Russia to remain a group of disparate principalities, that would hold quite a few consequences for the future.

[Soyuz]

If Moscow is besiged and raized by the victorious Mamai forces, which prinipality was the next contender to unify Russia at this time?

[Andrei]

Well , if Moscow is weakened , then Novgorod might become the most powerful Russian state , and eventually unite Russia.
In OTL , Novgorod became more and more dependent on Moscow , but with a weak Moscow , it might be the other way around.
It might have been better for Russia if it had been united by Novgorod , because Novgorod was more civilised .

[Max Sinister]

The problem was: Novgorod, as a trader's republic, was more interested in gaining riches than lands. And they had the problem that they depended on grain imports. Too bad, I like them too.

Basically the Russians would have to start from scratch - Moscow will lose the privilege to collect the tributes for the Mongols, someone else will get it and start to rebuild what the Moscovites have lost. Anyone's possible. AFAIK there was the little republic of Vyatka around... crazy idea, but maybe they are the right ones after Moscow falls? The Mongols weren't in the best state, the Poles and Lithuanians will conquer much of Russia but suffer from overstretch, and there was Siberia to conquer...

[Andrei]

You're right , Novgorod needed grain.
In OTL the grain was bought from Moscow , but with a severly weakened Muscovite principality , Novgorod might decide to conquer that area to obtain grain , rather than paying for it.
Novgorod relied on trade , but so did Carthage or Venice , and these states managed to controll large territories.

[Rasputin]

How about the possibility of Russia not unifying, but staying a collection of smaller countries? The Mongols could fall back thanks to sheer overstretch and leave Russia as diverse a region as anywhere else in Europe. Is this at all likely? Or was it a situation like that of Germany whereby all the historical forces were pushing towards unification?

[Wendell]

Might a Novgorod-centered Russia be more Scandinavian in outlook?

[Soyuz]

Thanks for all the feedback.

As I see it, there are a lot of possibilites for another state to unite Russia:
- Tver' - Prime competitor to Moscow, a very rich principality. It was also allied with Lithuania, which is both good and bad.
- Ryazan' - They had their army several days away from the battle and were generally on the Mongol's side. They can play along and get something from it.
- Novgorod - The largest principality. They were allied with Moscow because of Tver' (and Lithuanians, Novgorod's prime enemies) meddling in their affairs. Now Moscow has fallen, and they have too many enemies (Swedes, Lithuanian Order) and no allies. I actually highly doubt that they will unify Russia. They had plenty of chances during several centuries as the largest prinipality, but never got the ambition.

Then there's the question of who will be the principal tax collector now (lets say Dmitri Donskoi was killed in the battle).

And how far the Lithuanians are going to advance.

[Soyuz]

Ok, the russian article on Dmitri Donskoy had a bit more information so there are certain facts that are certain to happen.

1380 - Lithuanian army under Jogaila arrives 2 days earlier and links up with the Mongol army. The combined armies defeat the assembled Russian force at Kulikovo. Grand Duke of Muskovy Dmitri is still wounded in battle, but now isn't able to be saved as his forces flee the battlefield and dies.

1381 - The Mongols start the siege of Moscow. Without an army or a centralized leadership, the city fares badly, but is spared total distruction by the new stone Kremlin. The Lithuanians at first also besiege the city, but then break off so subdue the western part of the Moscow principality, such as Zvenigorod and Mojaisk. Ryazan forces move beside the Mongol forces and take the opprotunity to attack Kolomna and annex the lower flow of the Moscow river.

1382 - The north-eastern principalities, just a few years ago conquered by Moscow are restored or annexed by Tver.

1383 - Prince Mikhail Alexandrovich of Tver is crowned Grand Duke of Vladimir and principal tax collector by the Khan.

1385 - Polish-Lithuanian union is secured by Jagailo.


From there I'll have to start extrapolating the history. Lithuania still has to conquer Smolensk. But it's a question if they'll continue friendly relations with Tver, and how will Novgorod react.

[Soyuz]

This timeline is still a work in progress. It is neither finished, nor complete, as I left out several events during this time period, but this does represent the general direction I want to take the timeline in.

Please feel free to comment

1380 - Lithuanian army under Jogaila arrives 2 days earlier and links up with the Mongol army. The combined armies defeat the assembled Russian force at Kulikovo. Grand Duke of Muskovy Dmitri is still wounded in battle, but now isn't able to be saved as his forces flee the battlefield and dies.

1381 - The Mongols start the siege of Moscow. Without an army or a centralized leadership, the city fares badly, but is spared total distruction by the new stone Kremlin. The Lithuanians at first also besiege the city, but then break off so subdue the western part of the Moscow principality, such as Zvenigorod and Mojaisk. Ryazan forces move beside the Mongol forces and take the opprotunity to attack Kolomna and annex the lower flow of the Moscow river.

1382 - The north-eastern principalities, just a few years ago conquered by Moscow are restored or annexed by Tver.

1383 - Prince Mikhail Alexandrovich of Tver is crowned Grand Duke of Vladimir and principal tax collector by the Khan.

1386 - Polish-Lithuanian union is secured by Jagaillo, thus he become Vladislav II Jagaillo.

1388 – Russian Civil war – Lithuania attacks the Smolensk principality, having enveloped it from all sides. Novgorod assists the attacked, Tver attacks Novgorod. Other principalities take the opportunity to break free from the leader duchies.

1389 – Tamerlane invaded the Golden Horde to punish their alliance with Horzem. At the same time, Lithuanian forces make way into eastern Rutheria, angering the Mongols.

1390 – Smolensk’s siege comes to an end. Novgorod’s forces fare poorly against the Lithuanians, but are able to hold back Tver’s and other principality’s forces. Mamai is only able to send a small force to stop the Lithuanian expansion. It doesn’t meet its primary goal, but instead ravages the already weakened Russian principalities and punishes Tver. They are then withdrawn back to assist against invading Tamerlane.

1391 – Having ravage most of the eastern Golden Horde, Tamerlane meets Mamai’s forces near Volga. Mamai, as an average general, and with the disunion of the Horde, looses.

1392 – The Golden Horde falls into civil unrest. Only in 1395 is Tokhtamysh able to bring it under one leader. Ryazan and other bordering prinipalities take the chance to regain their influence.

1399 - Vytautas the Great organized a crusade against the Mongols, blessed by pope Boniface IX. Armed with cannons and superior training, they defeat the Mongols and annex the Crimea. Tokhtamysh has to flee to back to Saray-Berke. He is assasinated by rivals at the turn of the century.

1401 - Emir Edigu siezes power in the Golden Horde. During his stable riegn, the Mongols re-asserted their power over Russia (1405) and made several attempts to reclaim the Crimea with relative success (1406, 1409).

1410 – The Teutonic Order, fearing the great power of a united Poland-Lithuania attacks the kingdom. Vytautas, having to spend most of his time in the Crimea fighting off the Mongols, looses the battle of Grunwald. Švitrigaila, Jagaillo’s brother, appointed by the Tuetons, becomes duke of Lithuania. Having no military skills, he looses Crimea to the Mongols in 1413.

1412 – Having married a Tver princess, and being born of a Russian mother, Švitrigaila voluntarily hand over Smolensk lands to Tver and aids them financially.

1415 – Vytalus returns supported by Novgorod, Smolensk and several other Russian principalities, which feer a united Teutonic-Livonian power. During the battle against Švitrigaila, many Lithuanian dukes switch sides disgrunted by Švitrigaila’s policies. He is captured during the battle.

1416 – Teutonic Order finally enters the war and sends an army against the Lithuanian-Novgorod force, seeing that Jagaillo, king of Poland at the time, isn’t pressuring Vytautas enough and settled for peace for the return of his brother. They are defeated next year at Venden.

1418 – Riga is besieged and captured. Pskov and Livonia are united with Novgorod, Lithuania gains Courland.

[Andrei]

Novgorod becomes very powerful with the annexation of Livonia.

Why would Vytautas go all the way to Crimeea to fight the Mongols when the Teutonic Order was much closer and more dangerous. IIRC they owned Samogitia back then ( or did they seize it in 1409 ? ). And if Vytautas had gone in a crusade , blessed by the pope , would he have been attacked by the Teutonic Order?
I don't think cannons were really useful back then.

Otherwise , interesting timeline.

[Soyuz]

Novgorod becomes very powerful with the annexation of Livonia.
Yes, I really wanted to have 2 Russian kingdoms instead of one - Novgorod and Tver. But I think I'll cut back its power, the Swedes want Estonia, one way or another.

Why would Vytautas go all the way to Crimeea to fight the Mongols when the Teutonic Order was much closer and more dangerous. IIRC they owned Samogitia back then ( or did they seize it in 1409 ? ). And if Vytautas had gone in a crusade , blessed by the pope , would he have been attacked by the Teutonic Order?
I don't think cannons were really useful back then.
You're right, that part of history needs a bit more work. However, Vytautas' trip to the Crimea is 100% historical - 3rd paragraph of this wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vytautas) article about him. I reversed the course of the two battles (Vorskla and Grunwald) only because I wanted to end up with a Lithuanian-Novgorod alliance in the end.

[Wendell]

What if Sweden and Novgorod were united at some point?

[Soyuz]

What if Sweden and Novgorod were united at some point?
Why would they, Sweden is already in the Kalmar union, and they have clashing interests in the east Baltic. Though it would be interesting.

[Andrei]

Yes, I really wanted to have 2 Russian kingdoms instead of one - Novgorod and Tver. But I think I'll cut back its power, the Swedes want Estonia, one way or another.


You're right, that part of history needs a bit more work. However, Vytautas' trip to the Crimea is 100% historical - 3rd paragraph of this wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vytautas) article about him. I reversed the course of the two battles (Vorskla and Grunwald) only because I wanted to end up with a Lithuanian-Novgorod alliance in the end.

The alliance between Lithuania and Novgorod against the Teutons seems natural . But after the Russians and Lithuanians partition the Livonian lands , they would probably become rivals.

I don't think Sweden was able to conquer Estonia in the early XVth century , they were in the Kalmar Union , and the Danish intertests had priority ( Denmark might be also interested in Livonia , though ). Anyway , Sweden will become a major power after it gains independence .
You could make them independent as in OTL or you might have the revolt which took place in 1434 , led by Erik Engelbrektsson more succesful. Or a more succesful Sven Sture in the 1470's. ( could an earlier independence of Sweden lead to the independece of Norway as well ?).

Some other aspects worth considering:
- The Hanseatic League's position. They were Kalmar's rivals , so possibly Novgorod's allies.
- The future of the Polish-Lithuanian union. With a stronger Lithuania and with the Teutonic Kinghts badly beaten , it seems that Lithuania would become independent. Maybe Vytautas manages to crown himself king this time .
- The Golden Horde , Tver , R'azan and maybe a resurgent Moscow would not be as powerful as Poland , Lithuania or Novgorod for the time being.

[Soyuz]

Thanks for the input!
The alliance between Lithuania and Novgorod against the Teutons seems natural . But after the Russians and Lithuanians partition the Livonian lands , they would probably become rivals.
I though the exact same thing.

I don't think Sweden was able to conquer Estonia in the early XVth century , they were in the Kalmar Union , and the Danish intertests had priority ( Denmark might be also interested in Livonia , though ). Anyway , Sweden will become a major power after it gains independence .
You could make them independent as in OTL or you might have the revolt which took place in 1434 , led by Erik Engelbrektsson more succesful. Or a more succesful Sven Sture in the 1470's. ( could an earlier independence of Sweden lead to the independece of Norway as well ?).
I'll probably change it, that's just ahead. Must do some more research about it.

Some other aspects worth considering:
- The Hanseatic League's position. They were Kalmar's rivals , so possibly Novgorod's allies.
Hm? How do they tie into this? Since when is Novgorod Kalmar's enemy?

- The future of the Polish-Lithuanian union. With a stronger Lithuania and with the Teutonic Kinghts badly beaten , it seems that Lithuania would become independent. Maybe Vytautas manages to crown himself king this time .
The teutons aren't actually beaten, I just reversed the annexations: OTL Poland annexed west Prussia, while here it's Livonia (besides the usual west Lithuania). That would affect the rise of Brandendburg too.

- The Golden Horde , Tver , R'azan and maybe a resurgent Moscow would not be as powerful as Poland , Lithuania or Novgorod for the time being.
True, but the Horde does control the south principalities for the time being. I plan Moscow to resurge, but get defeated in the ned.

[Andrei]

Hm? How do they tie into this? Since when is Novgorod Kalmar's enemy?



Novgorod and Sweden were enemies in the XIIIth century . Although I think they came to an agreement concerning their borders in Finland in 1323, the rivalry still existed.
You suggested that Sweden might be interested in Novgorod held Estonia.
Denmark owned Estonia in the XIIIth century , but had to sell it to the Teutons in 1346. Now , with the Teutons expelled from Estonia , they might try to take it back.
Novgorod , Riga , Reval were Hansa members , a reason for a Novgorod -Hansa Alliance.

But all bets are off when Sweden becomes independent. This will open up a lot of possibilities . I suspect a Swedish-Lithuanian alliance and a Novgorod-Poland-Denamrk faction.

[Soyuz]

Novgorod and Sweden were enemies in the XIIIth century . Although I think they came to an agreement concerning their borders in Finland in 1323, the rivalry still existed.
You suggested that Sweden might be interested in Novgorod held Estonia.
Denmark owned Estonia in the XIIIth century , but had to sell it to the Teutons in 1346. Now , with the Teutons expelled from Estonia , they might try to take it back.
Novgorod , Riga , Reval were Hansa members , a reason for a Novgorod -Hansa Alliance.

But all bets are off when Sweden becomes independent. This will open up a lot of possibilities . I suspect a Swedish-Lithuanian alliance and a Novgorod-Poland-Denamrk faction.
Oh, sorry, I was reading your reply in a rush and I though you said Hansa was Novgorod's enemy. *slaps forehead* But your reasoning is great, I'll work it in and have another piece of the TL written tonight.

I may also backtrack and say Norgorod only got part of Lithuania. With the whole of it, they're just too powerful, and nothing to prevent them from rolling over the other russian principalities.

[Soyuz]

Couldn't get to writing more, but made a map instead.

[abas]

1380 - Lithuanian army under Jogaila arrives 2 days earlier and links up with the Mongol army. The combined armies defeat the assembled Russian force at Kulikovo. Grand Duke of Muskovy Dmitri is still wounded in battle, but now isn't able to be saved as his forces flee the battlefield and dies.
They did. I had some interest in early Lithuanian history and I had found, that lithuanians had camp for two days near battlefield. They only harassed chasing russians.


From there I'll have to start extrapolating the history. Lithuania still has to conquer Smolensk. But it's a question if they'll continue friendly relations with Tver, and how will Novgorod react.
Smolensk wasn't completly independent.Smolensk had saved his independence only playing on rivalry between Lithuania and Moscow.