WI: Blair was a Tory

[MrwBrightside]

What if Tony Blair followed his father's wishes and joined the Conservatives in 1982 and sought to reform the party to become a "socially tolerant, progressive and responsible" party with similar pro-capitalist, pro-competition policies and a low tax system?

If I had the ingenuity and dedication to do a TL, I'd have Neil Kinnock beating the Tories in 1992 after John Major's affair with Edwina Currie being leaked to the press just before the election. However, the party will be hit by economic crisis with the ERM and infighting over financial policy and Europe.

By 1992, Blair becomes Conservative Party in a closely-fought battle and five years later, in 1997, he leads the 'New Tories' to a majority government, which is all but renewed in 2001 with effectively the same number of seats for each party. However, the 2003 Iraq War rejuvenates Labour as the 'true progressives', owing to their anti-war position. However, the Tory majority government proved too strong to overturn in 2005. Nonetheless, it set the story for 2010. Labour replace their leader since '97, Gordon Brown, with the young but aspirational David Miliband, and Blair set off for the States in 2007, himself being replaced by David Cameron.

In 2010, Miliband's Labour Party manage to return to office for the first time since Blair's success of 1997, albeit with the support of the Liberal Democrats in Britain's first peacetime coalition since the 1930s.

[Some Bloke]

Phony Tony was a Tory, he just sold a more acceptable brand.

[Meadow]

One word: butterflies. The big one is that David Miliband owed much of his career trajectory to Blair and it's nigh-impossible that he'd have the career path he had IOTL without him. There's no way of knowing who Brown would be succeeded by, it might be someone like Ed Balls or Yvette Cooper, or equally someone who didn't enter Parliament IOTL.

[Lanky]

I think you've tried too hard to make it mirror real life. I don't think it would have changed the '92 election result. Blair may well have become leader after Major, though.

[MrwBrightside]

I thought that after posting, I doubt that the Miliband brothers would enter politics in the same way as they have without Blair in the Labour Party. So let's kick them out and use this model for the Labour leadership:

1983-1997: Neil Kinnock (prime minister: 1992-1997)
1997-2005: Gordon Brown (chancellor: 1994-1997)
2005-present: Alan Johnson (prime minister: 2010+)

Or possibly, instead of Johnson, Harriet Harman? Jack Straw? His career wouldn't been as damaged by the Iraq War as it has done, so he's a distinct possibility. Also, what if Robin Cook won the 2005 leadership election, but passes away the same time as he did IRL?

[TheNordicBrit]

I think you've tried too hard to make it mirror real life. I don't think it would have changed the '92 election result. Blair may well have become leader after Major, though.
Or the well-known phrase may be 'were you up for Blair' ITTL...

[TheNordicBrit]

I thought that after posting, I doubt that the Miliband brothers would enter politics in the same way as they have without Blair in the Labour Party. So let's kick them out and use this model for the Labour leadership:

1983-1997: Neil Kinnock (prime minister: 1992-1997)
1997-2005: Gordon Brown (chancellor: 1994-1997)
2005-present: Alan Johnson (prime minister: 2010+)

Or possibly, instead of Johnson, Harriet Harman? Jack Straw? His career wouldn't been as damaged by the Iraq War as it has done, so he's a distinct possibility. Also, what if Robin Cook won the 2005 leadership election, but passes away the same time as he did IRL?
Sorry but why would Kinnock win in 1992 ITTL? IOTL Blair was still only a minor Shadow Minister under Kinnock and his rise to power IOTL was more by luck and tragedy.

[MrwBrightside]

I don't know who else to suggest as Labour leader then, and just settled on Kinnock. Remember that I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about this as that'd be a waste of my time.

[hcallega]

The Conservative Party has largely moderated its message in the post-Thatcher world anyway. David Cameron has especially focused on cultivating a modern style of "One Nation" conservatism. Blair may accelerate that if he ascended up the ranks of the Tories. Then again, if he becomes a Tory he may never get into politics.

[KillerT]

WELL ALRIGHT!!!! WELL ALRIGHT!!!! and so Kinnock wrote his own epitath... Labour couldn't win with the Welsh Windbag. His wife is just as awful.

[PMN1]

Phony Tony was a Tory, he just sold a more acceptable brand.

He brought 'I'm all right Jack' to a level that would embarrass the most ardent Tory.....feathering his own nest while letting the idiot Brown loose on the economy.

[Orville_third]

Well, if Blair led the Tories into Iraq, Labour would unite against him. I just had an ASB-ish idea for a TL of mine. who was the Labourite most opposed to Iraq? Would it be the new MP for Bradford West? While he may not make leader, he would grow in influence...

[MrwBrightside]

Ah, 'He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named', he would definitely capitalise on Labour being against the war...

[Orville_third]

Ah, 'He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named', he would definitely capitalise on Labour being against the war...

And he may even stay in Labour ITTL. (I am working on a TL in which Blair is discredited over attacking Iraq - in 1998. I have an idea for a different person to rise in Labour in that TL. Despite backing Blair ITTL, he's more leftist and a great speaker. He won't make PM till our future- and it will deprive us of some great works...

[zippy]

this would be interesting especially if a second POD is introduced from the OTL

what if John Smith's 1994 Heart attack wasn't fatal ?

meaning the 97 General Election is Blair vs Smith

[Well]

The issue is, in the Tory Party, Blair would be just one more clever, slick, young lawyer looking for a career. There's nothing to set him apart from Howard, Clarke, Lilley, Portillo and the other figures of the '90s in the Tory Party. Assuming he finds a seat at all (say in '83), his rise will be slower than in Labour. If he's lucky, and things go roughly as OTL, he might make it into Major's Cabinet after the '92/'91 election or the '95 leadership vote (or its nearest equivalent), but I wouldn't count on it.

[dropbearabroad]

A party of Tony Blairs? That's possibly the most damning condemnation of modern politics you could come up with. Sadly, I think you are correct.

[stateless_englishman]

In 1983, Anthony Blair is put up as the Conservative candidate for the City of Durham, near his home, which while not explicitly a Labour safe seat, has voted Labour since 1935. As expected, he does lose, but pushes the SDP close for second place. In 1987 he is put up for the seat of Stockton South, which the Conservatives had lost by only 0.19% to the SDP in 1983. Blair wins the seat taking it with a narrow majority of 4%, increasing his majority at the next election in 1992.

[The Oncoming Storm]

There is a story that apparently Blair only joined Labour at Oxford to get a date with Cherie, if it's true then the PoD quite simply is that they never meet.

[modelcitizen]

.....

meaning the 97 General Election is Blair vs Smith



And Orwell chuckles drily in his grave.

[Some Bloke]

He was a Tory he just didn't want to admit it in public.