[ALT] Poll #3 - Year of ISOT

[Darkest]

Well, I thought this was due to the fact that our originally assumed idea of ISOTing to 5000 BC might be a bad one.

You see, Mount Mazama (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Mazama) is due to explode in 4860 BC. This is what forms the extremely deep Crater Lake in Oregon. This will be disasterous for agriculture throughout the region. Smoke will head towards the southeast, if you could call this noxious blend smoke. Magma flows will spread to the ocean, to Idaho, and all the way to North California. Tribes will be displaced, come into conflict with other tribes, and eventually the whole continent is in some kind of turmoil.

I don't want this to happen to our descendents in only 140 years, its too early, and could send us into a primitive state. If you agree with me, please vote for another millenium to ISOT to. If you don't, and you want your grandchildren to watch the lava fields rush towards the ocean, and our many fields burn to the ground, and people dying from poisons in the air... then vote for 5000 BC and solidify the original scenario.

Choose wisely. I am going to leave this up for two days before votes are counted.

[Shadestorm]

I'm voting for 7000 BC because there's supposed to giant ground sloths, mammoths, and wooly rhinocerouses running around in the midwest at that time. The sloths are roughly the size of a bull elephant.

Sure, you say they're a threat. Sure, someone may get maimed, dismembered, or killed because of one. There might be an "incident". But my fellow forumgoers, there are more important things in life than... life; like a pack of indians riding a herd of ground sloths. Now that's cool, man.

Now tell me, are we going to take the "easy" way out and vote for a more... civilized era? No! We're going to get out there and ride some giant flippin' sloths! Who's with me?!! Vote 7000 BC!!!!!!

[Bulgaroktonos]

I think most of those went extinct about 10,000. These dates are way too late. Make it 15-10,000 BC.

[Shadestorm]

You may be right, but Wikipedia.org says otherwise...

[Darkest]

15,000 BC? What, during an Ice Age? We can't even predict how our society might develop, man. We have no idea on climates, peoples, fauna and flora... heck, the geography might be different, with mountains and volcanoes and lakes in different areas...

No, let's keep it as close to 5000 BC as possible. We've had hundreds of replies assuming we'd go to San Francisco in 5000 BC, if we changed our minds to 15,000 BC that'd just screw everything up.

[Forum Lurker]

I threw in for 7,000, on the basis that the earlier we start, the less we need to worry about meeting other food-producing cultures.

[Dave Howery]

how about 4850 BC.. the worst should be over by then...

[General_Paul]

Hell I voted for 3000 BCE. No volcanic eruptions, very little problems with other food producing cultures outside of Mezo-America, and we've got tribes around us that we can... convince to ally with or face the wrath of a bunch of pissed off 21st century white men and women with guns and swords. Plus, I think with our superior technology, we can strike up a working relationship with some of the other civilizations in Mezo America, hell, we've got a protected harbor, we can strike up a naval rush due to all the redwoods around us.

[Flocculencio]

Hell I voted for 3000 BCE. No volcanic eruptions, very little problems with other food producing cultures outside of Mezo-America, and we've got tribes around us that we can... convince to ally with or face the wrath of a bunch of pissed off 21st century white men and women with guns and swords.

I voted for 3000BC. However, what about those of us 21st century peeps who aren't "white men"?

All this talk of subduing the locals with fire and the sword is getting me down.

Would the sahib desire a gin-and-tonic? :rolleyes:

[Psychomeltdown]

I voted for 3000BC. However, what about those of us 21st century peeps who aren't "white men"?

All this talk of subduing the locals with fire and the sword is getting me down.

Would the sahib desire a gin-and-tonic? :rolleyes:
Ditto.

And I'll be damned if anyone's going to go out and start a empire using slave labor or any such things. Nor will I stand for any unjustified attack upon the indigenous peoples.

[Darkest]

I definitely think some people are going to immediately leave the main group to go conquer the Native Americans. I don't know if they will die or if they might be to some degree successful, but we can't worry about them until our farms are going and we have some time for military expeditions.

Since they want to conquer the Amerindians, they will probably quarantine themselves for two or three weeks like we will, so that their disease won't wrack the native population to nothing. So we can stop worrying about that at least.

I'm afraid of them giving guns to the natives, and then luring them to attack us in return for drugs.

[Flocculencio]

I'm afraid of them giving guns to the natives, and then luring them to attack us in return for drugs.

I'm in favour of a punitive expedition to ride them down (the renegades, that is, not the natives).

We'll never have peace of mind otherwise.

[Matt]

I'm in favour of a punitive expedition to ride them down (the renegades, that is, not the natives).

We'll never have peace of mind otherwise.


I would like to work some groups against others. If we could take more with us I would advocating certain groups with primative firearms(muskets or barrel loaded rifles would do fine) and let em kill each other off. If they think just because they have firearms they can take us on, they would learn the power of the Lee-Enfield.

[Shadestorm]

I would like to work some groups against others. If we could take more with us I would advocating certain groups with primative firearms(muskets or barrel loaded rifles would do fine) and let em kill each other off.

The problem you'll have, however, is that you can't identify us. You have a group of 1000+ excited, moving people. They'll be traveling North immediately, if you follow your plans. No time to take a headcount. I'll hang around long enough to make sure I'm not noticed when I take off quickly.

And we're going far. We have camo clothes and camo tarps to hide under when sleeping.

If they think just because they have firearms they can take us on, they would learn the power of the Lee-Enfield

I'm not saying we could take you on. I'm saying it's fairly probably that I'll be able to take a couple of you with me before I die. Do you seriously want to sacrifice people when you could have them go and... like farm a field, or do some gardening? :rolleyes:

[Matt]

I'm not saying we could take you on. I'm saying it's fairly probably that I'll be able to take a couple of you with me before I die. Do you seriously want to sacrifice people when you could have them go and... like farm a field, or do some gardening? :rolleyes:


Oh I'm quite certain you would get a few. However, I am a Jarhead. I would be willingly to take the needed steps to keeps more of our group from dying needlessly down the road.

[Psychomeltdown]

I'm in favour of a punitive expedition to ride them down (the renegades, that is, not the natives).

We'll never have peace of mind otherwise.
I agree. For peace in our Community and for peace down the road.

Oh I'm quite certain you would get a few. However, I am a Jarhead. I would be willingly to take the needed steps to keeps more of our group from dying needlessly down the roadAgreed. Better to have a few people die now, than a lot more later.

[Glen]

This is a bit ridiculous...

Shadestorm, what are really your goals in this endeavor? Maybe there are better ways to accomplish what you desire than what you are suggesting.

I mean, really, is it just to have power over people? Neolithic people, in a constant state of 'camping out'?

It might sound 'cool' sitting in your house typing on a computer, but when it really comes to it, is that really going to be a life you're going to enjoy, for the rest of that life?

Every single person who splits off from the group is a loss in our ability to preserve modern knowledge and skills, even if you don't think so. Just the fact that you have had a 20th/21st century education makes you invaluable to that effort.

We have precious few people to rebuild and recreate what we can. No smaller splinter groups or individuals are going to even come close to being able to do so. The more we hang together, the better our futures, ALL our futures, will be.

[Darkest]

I say let him if he wants to. It makes for a better story in the long run, and interesting things to put down in the history books.

I am considering realistically what I would do if I were in this situation, but ultimately, I am going to be roleplaying in this world, and I want it to be a good, story-healthy roleplay and following timeline. As long as civilization is not destroyed. I doubt Shadestorm is going to affect us all that much.

It matters where he is going. To the other side of the Valley? Or outside of California? If he leaves California, let him do what he wants, he's too far away to be worth the effort. Same for any other people. Someone wanted to immediately build a ship and travel to Africa. Why not? If he can do it, let him, makes things more interesting, even if he might be killed.

Unfortunately, I too will probably eventually leave the main colony to set up my own or even another 'nation state'. Maybe not this generation, but my grandsons and granddaughters and the rest of my family's descendents in only two generations will number near 250 or more, thanks to Mormon Growth Rates. We'll leave to teach the Amerindians, heading probably down to Central America where there are some more advanced cultures. We'll have our own small army, and hopefully by then enough technology to keep ourselves going.

If things go well, I hope to create a theocratic state near the isthmus, where the land will be good for trade, agriculture, and industry. My direct descendent firstborn sons will become part of a dynasty that will co-rule with a Mormon Prophet (chosen by God).

[Psychomeltdown]

So, it's 3000 BC then?

@ Darkest: How do you even know your descendants will even be practicing Mormonism? I suspect your religion will probably be the smallest of the whole group of Protestants and Catholics.

Unless you go the hard line separatist route, your faith is in danger of dying away, just like mine is.

[Glen]

Its actually a good theoretical question.

Do we want to play it totally realistic (what WOULD you do)? Play it to make it interesting (and thus maybe not that realistic)? Or some fusion of the two (well, this is SORTA what I'd do, but I spiced it up a bit).

I'm most interested in the first, personally.

[Nicksplace27]

I would head south, but not very far, Just to the Area around LA and I'll bring around 10-20 people with me. Hopefully if we are smart enough with what we take with us so that we can harness a railroad.

[Matt]

I'm going to work with Weapon M to establish some arrangement to set up a defense for our community. Once we move to our permament location we'll send out the first patrols to see what's in the neighborhood.

[SionEwig]

Its actually a good theoretical question.

Do we want to play it totally realistic (what WOULD you do)? Play it to make it interesting (and thus maybe not that realistic)? Or some fusion of the two (well, this is SORTA what I'd do, but I spiced it up a bit).

I'm most interested in the first, personally.

Personally I would prefer to go with totally realistic, even though it will probably cause some problems. Guess I'm going to have to talk to John to get some religion questions answered, my priest would think I'm even crazier than he already does.

It's not the 1820's is it Glen.:D

[Othniel]

Well I personally think that when it comes to the Christians we'll group together whether we are protestant, orthodox or Catholic. Resurrection of the home church methinks.:)

[Glen]

Personally I would prefer to go with totally realistic, even though it will probably cause some problems. Guess I'm going to have to talk to John to get some religion questions answered, my priest would think I'm even crazier than he already does.

It's not the 1820's is it Glen.:D

Ah, another refugee from that SHWI-ISOT!!!

Can you believe I have to jumpstart modern medicine...AGAIN! On the plus side, I can actually pick what I'm bringing.

On the downside, we're it...

[Glen]

Well I personally think that when it comes to the Christians we'll group together whether we are protestant, orthodox or Catholic. Resurrection of the home church methinks.:)

Maybe, maybe...

[Darkest]

@ Darkest: How do you even know your descendants will even be practicing Mormonism? I suspect your religion will probably be the smallest of the whole group of Protestants and Catholics.

Are you kidding? It will take more than two generations to practice Mormonism. My family lived decades in the Deep South where Mormons are rumored to be devil-worshippers (a lot of stories, man, they are still prejudiced out there on a number of different fields, believe me). My ancestors were some of the first Mormons to follow Brigham Young out into the wilderness where most of them died. Then, my family was sent into the deserts of Arizona to create a Mormon outpost there. Back then, Arizona was hell, a hot desert for hundreds of miles with very little water even under the surface, and all the vegetation has needles and thorns.

Mormons stick it through. We are a hard, zealous people

Plus, if we extrapolate statistics throughout the NPCs, I could bring another family or two, probably.

Do we want to play it totally realistic (what WOULD you do)? Play it to make it interesting (and thus maybe not that realistic)? Or some fusion of the two (well, this is SORTA what I'd do, but I spiced it up a bit).

I would like to play it totally realistic as well. Maybe just a little bit of spice, since I am looking at this from sort of a story perspective. In short, I'll just exaggerate whatever I would think and do, just by a little bit. I want to keep things interestingly.

Other than that, totally realistic

[Bulgaroktonos]

Oh I'm quite certain you would get a few. However, I am a Jarhead. I would be willingly to take the needed steps to keeps more of our group from dying needlessly down the road.

MBarry, we have superiority of numbers, superior training, superior motivation. He needs to know everything to effectively combat us. He must know military tactics, strategy, ironworking, ballistics, medicine, etc. Nothing he can do alone effectively, or spread out and maintain power. Thus, either he is killed off and our work done for us, or we combat him on such superior terms that it is on the whole irrelevant.

[Othniel]

Are you kidding? It will take more than two generations to practice Mormonism. My family lived decades in the Deep South where Mormons are rumored to be devil-worshippers (a lot of stories, man, they are still prejudiced out there on a number of different fields, believe me). My ancestors were some of the first Mormons to follow Brigham Young out into the wilderness where most of them died. Then, my family was sent into the deserts of Arizona to create a Mormon outpost there. Back then, Arizona was hell, a hot desert for hundreds of miles with very little water even under the surface, and all the vegetation has needles and thorns.

Mormons stick it through. We are a hard, zealous peopleAnd tend to anger people (a Illinious jail and Missouri law come to mind). But remeber in each of those circumstances mormons were the majority of the new settlers. In this you may be the only new settlers. What happens if any of your siblings get converted to anouther faith or your desendants get aborbed at large? Here, in Utah, the largest concentration of mormons exist in the world, but it is estimated that be 2040 they will be the minority, even here. Mormons survied by isolation and progating their own numbers. Raised mormons, not converted.

[Darkest]

Mormons have very high rates of conversion, Othniel. And, you live in Utah. Utah Mormons are way different than those of us that have to live in the real world. Utah Mormons are known in my church to be awkward, rebellious, and not very faithful because they have always lived with their faith unchallenged.

The rest of us, we are a different breed from those that isolated themselves. We are a zealous church focused on converting as many people as we can until the Second Coming, extremely centralized with a strong head authority.

As for my family, we are very strong Mormons, and the trials we face in the New World will only make us stronger. Under pressure, Mormons become more faithful. Its in a lot of our doctrine.

Mormons do tend to anger people, you are right, which is why my descendents will probably be leaving as soon as people see that they can afford to lose them.

[Norbert]

Personally, I believe in God, and as long as others do not try to force their beliefs on me, I really do not care what they believe. Religion, to me is a private matter between myself and God. Some of the best friends I have ever had were people who believed in another faith. Also, working for a military chaplin who helped people of all faiths opened my tolerences to other faiths.

[Glen]

Hey, I love the Latter Day Saints...they have wonderful Family History Centers!

As for conversion...I can honestly say that none of the Mormons I've encountered have presured me or even broached the subject.

[Psychomeltdown]

Beyond the actual missionaries that usually came around, all the Mormons I've know aren't into the faith and these are Non Utah Mormons. They've never gone to temple nor have they followed any of it's rules.

By this account I could also say that Mormons aren't that hardline in their faith.

[Darkest]

Those are Jack Mormons, Psychomeltdown. And how many have you actually met? They don't seem like good examples of the majority of Mormons.

[Flocculencio]

I'm not saying we could take you on. I'm saying it's fairly probably that I'll be able to take a couple of you with me before I die. Do you seriously want to sacrifice people when you could have them go and... like farm a field, or do some gardening? :rolleyes:

If it's a choice between that and letting you build up a little band of thugs and sweeping down to kill and loot our outlying settlements, then, yes, every man killed will have sacrificed himself to preserve many others.

[Flocculencio]

Well even if people are heading down into the baking wastelands of SoCal or up into the hills to enslave the natives or off to form theocratic Empires, I'm sticking with the group. Seems the most sensible and, besides, I like the idea of helping to guard the last outpost of Liberal Democracy :D

Nicksplace: How are you going to lay tracks and power the trains?

[Ward]

Well even if people are heading down into the baking wastelands of SoCal or up into the hills to enslave the natives or off to form theocratic Empires, I'm sticking with the group. Seems the most sensible and, besides, I like the idea of helping to guard the last outpost of Liberal Democracy :D

Nicksplace: How are you going to lay tracks and power the trains?


Its going to be at less 5 years before we even think about building a train first we have to mine the metal , then make the machines to build the machines , to make the trains and track .

[Flocculencio]

Its going to be at less 5 years before we even think about building a train first we have to mine the metal , then make the machines to build the machines , to make the trains and track .

That's what I was thinking.

[Psychomeltdown]

Those are Jack Mormons, Psychomeltdown. And how many have you actually met? They don't seem like good examples of the majority of Mormons.
But still you said this has to be a bit realistic, therefore I doubt that all Mormons would be hardline, ready to convert the masses types. Maybe a compromise of the two, a moderate type of religion. There will be always these types in any religion.

Its going to be at less 5 years before we even think about building a train first we have to mine the metal , then make the machines to build the machines , to make the trains and track .I think it would take longer, after all how many lathes, presses, and the such things are we taking? I suspect none.

Remember we have to start everything up from scratch. That means not just making the tools to make the tools, but also mining the minerals that are needed to make the tools, creating the base that's needed to mine the minerals, etc.

[Nicksplace27]

Its going to be at less 5 years before we even think about building a train first we have to mine the metal , then make the machines to build the machines , to make the trains and track .

yes, the Steam engine will be off-limits for now.

[Bulgaroktonos]

I think its gonna be a goddamn longer time than 5 years.

We're likely to have a population boom in roughly 9 months, adding another half of the population, followed by a second another few years down the line. Thus, we explode from a population of 700 to roughly 1200 in about 3 years. We're going to need to plan for that.

Further we need lots of experts to do that. Railroads are a waste of time at this point.

[Psychomeltdown]

We're likely to have a population boom in roughly 9 months, adding another half of the population, followed by a second another few years down the line. Thus, we explode from a population of 700 to roughly 1200 in about 3 years. We're going to need to plan for that..
a lot of the womenfolk are going to get knocked up and a lot of the animals are going to be preggers, which means that they can't do much in the way of labor during that time, same with the women. We need breeding stock, so we can't take much in the way of geldings and such.

In a year we'll have at least .25 more people, due to births.1800 people now, that makes about 2250.

[Forum Lurker]

Women can still work while pregnant. There's a reason things like weaving were considered women's work; they're skilled labor, but don't require potentially dangerous physical exertion. Animals, true, will be largely useless while pregnant.

[Darkest]

The Chosen Year We Are To Be ISOTed To Is:

3,000 BCE

I don't want to lock this thread because people might still want to continue their conversations. If you guys are done, though, I'll lock it.

[Psychomeltdown]

The Chosen Year We Are To Be ISOTed To Is:

3,000 BCE

I don't want to lock this thread because people might still want to continue their conversations. If you guys are done, though, I'll lock it.
What time of the year, O' Great One?

Plus based on the math and the amount of people voting, wouldn't a closer number be 2200 instead of 3100? 50% of the people are only bringing themselves and their mate.


You have 350 people bringing nearly 2400 others. that's 6.8 per family.

[Darkest]

What time of the year, O' Great One?

Okay, Psychomeltdown, I know you are trying to make a point, and I've got it. I'll try to be less authoritarian on how these things are run. I'm trying to represent everyone's opinions, but I think that somewhere my opinions are taking a little more prevalence than others.

I'm sorry.

Otherwise, I think that the agreement was mid-February, I'd say February the 15th.

Plus based on the math and the amount of people voting, wouldn't a closer number be 2200 instead of 3100? 50% of the people are only bringing themselves and their mate.

You have 350 people bringing nearly 2400 others. that's 6.8 per family.

50% of the people are 'average', as in, not based according to demographics we found in the selected group. They are bringing their mate and 1.5 children.

350 people? We agreed 694. It came out thusly:

1136 AH.com members - 2 votes - 7.14%
461 AH.com members - 13 votes - 46.43%
860 AH.com members - 13 votes - 46.43%

Because of the tie, I averaged everything out. (1136 * 7.14%) + (461 * 46.43%) + (860 * 46.43%) = 694 members. Its a compromise, straight and simple.

I did the same with the How Many People Are You Bringing, averaged everything out based on the percentages of people who voted for what. Then I averaged that sum with the 50% who are bringing only 2.5 people other than themselves.

Comes out to a dandy 3180. I'd like to get a demographic on what percentage of this population are considering their age ranges, but it seems people want to start earlier than the time that would take. We'll have to extrapolate real-world percentages.

[Psychomeltdown]

I know its 694 people, but according to the Who Are you Bringing,

only 350 (50%) of the people are bringing themselves and one other. Therefore realistically that's about 700 people.

only one person is bringing 21 or more. That should be an exception, not something that about 40 people are doing.

[Darkest]

Results

1-2 - 50.00%
3-4 - 18.75%
5-6 - 18.75%
15-17 - 1 - 6.25%
21+ - 1 - 6.25%

First we average out the selections people made.

1.5
3.5
5.5
16
And for 21+, I made it into 22 since I don't know exactly how much that averages out to.

Plus themelves, so:

2.5 - 50%
4.5 - 18.75%
5.5 - 18.75%
16 - 6.25%
22 - 6.25%

Multiply by percentages

2.5 * 50% = 1.25
4.5 * 18.75% = 0.84375
5.5 * 18.75% = 1.21875
16 * 6.25% = 1
22 * 6.25% = 1.375

Add results

1.25 + 0.84375 + 1.21875 + 1 + 1.375 = 5.6875 people * every AH.com member.

Average sum with 'average' people

5.6875 + 3.5 (Themselves, their wife, and 1.5 children) = 9.1875

9.1875 / 2 = 4.59375

Multiply by the number of AH.commers

694 * 4.59375 = 3188.0625

Round Down

3180 for your convenience.

---

Mathematically proven. :) And, I checked out the equations, and even if that one 21+ person didn't vote, then there would be 2811 people. Not much of a difference. And I do expect some people to bring large clans. Look at Ward.

[Shadestorm]

3180 people * the 21.05% who voted to run off with the conquistadors...
Will I seriously have almost 700 people in my little army?

While, hey, that's awesome that I have more manpower... It seems a bit unrealistic. Want to do something about this gentlemen?

[Darkest]

@Shadestorm
Don't expect so much, man. I am going to do the same thing with those statistics. The 'average person' will stay with our colony. So, 50% of those 3180 are going to be in the Community right off the bat, the rest of the 50% can be subjected to demographic extrapolation.

[Shadestorm]

So that's about 350 people. 350 people with guns. Following me.

Sweet.

EDIT:
Hey, and I figured that 4 people voted for going to try to hunt me down. Meaning there'll be 350 people hunting the woods.

Not sweet.

[Forum Lurker]

Bear in mind, many of those who decide they don't want to be part of the main colony have different ideas of leadership than you. What you have is not 350 followers, but 350 potential competitors, in addition to a few hundred people who plan on making sure you idiots all kill each other off, or doing the job themselves.

[Psychomeltdown]

I don't think we can really base much on the voting figures, after all it's only a few people who voted before the polls closed.

a fifth of the population is running for the hills so that they can set up their own mini empire, that just sounds absurd.

Plus as I said the most they could take is 600 lbs and that's if they're walking. Not much in the way of surviving long term.