The Alternate History Plausibility Scale

[Hercule Poirot]

An idea that's occurred to me is to create a scale of plausibility for alternate histories and than classifying the various published and online AH works. How does that sound for a project?

[Kaiphranos]

So... something like this (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/SlidingScaleOfAlternateHistoryPlausibility)?

[Hercule Poirot]

So... something like this (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/SlidingScaleOfAlternateHistoryPlausibility)?

Yes pretty much. Although I'd rate it differently with different numbers (considering quite a few implausible AHs are rated highly).

Ie:
5-Very likely maybe even more than actually what happened (ie something like Decades of Darkness)
4-Quite plausible (For Want of a Nail)
3-Semi-Plausible, if you stretch it (Fatherland)
2-Implausible (TL-191)
1-Practically impossible (Draka)
0-ASB (Worldwar)

[d32123]

Yes pretty much. Although I'd rate it differently with different numbers (considering quite a few implausible AHs are rated highly).

Ie:
5-Very likely maybe even more than actually what happened (ie something like Decades of Darkness)
4-Quite plausible (For Want of a Nail)
3-Semi-Plausible, if you stretch it (Fatherland)
2-Implausible (TL-191)
1-Practically impossible (Draka)
0-ASB (Worldwar)

Never read For Want of a Nail, but I've heard Decades of Darkness called ASB. Also, I'd rank Fatherland as Practically Impossible, not semi-plausible.

[Hercule Poirot]

Never read For Want of a Nail, but I've heard Decades of Darkness called ASB. Also, I'd rank Fatherland as Practically Impossible, not semi-plausible.

Who said that and why? As far as I can tell it uses the butterfly effect and observes standards rules of logistics, psychology, and so on. As for Fatherland I am operating from the fact that considering the general level of AH, that something like Fatherland with a semi-plausible Axis victory (No Sealion or invasion of the US) can be considered possible if everything went right for the Nazis.

[d32123]

Who said that and why? As far as I can tell it uses the butterfly effect and observes standards rules of logistics, psychology, and so on. As for Fatherland I am operating from the fact that considering the general level of AH, that something like Fatherland with a semi-plausible Axis victory (No Sealion or invasion of the US) can be considered possible if everything went right for the Nazis.

I've never really read all of Decades of Darkness, I've just heard that it's extremely dystopian.

And any Axis Victory is almost impossible. This has been beaten to dead horse levels.

[Hercule Poirot]

I've never really read all of Decades of Darkness, I've just heard that it's extremely dystopian.

Not really extremely dystopian-the US still has slavery, yes, but at the same time there are no industrial mass murder like the Holocaust, the Great Purges, the Great Leap Forward, or the Killing Fields.

[Beedok]

Not really extremely dystopian-the US still has slavery, yes, but at the same time there are no industrial mass murder like the Holocaust, the Great Purges, the Great Leap Forward, or the Killing Fields.
Did you ignore what's happening to poor little Canada?:(

[Japhy]

Did you ignore what's happening to poor little Canada?:(

We never got the end of that one, so you kind of have to.

[Hercule Poirot]

Did you ignore what's happening to poor little Canada?:(

Sorry for forgetting but its pretty mild, quite frankly, compared to say OTL's Russian Civil War or Spanish Civil War.

[Beedok]

We never got the end of that one, so you have to.
But a bunch of angry Praire folks are trying to remove the monarchy and all semblance of democracy! It's horrible!

[Japhy]

But a bunch of angry Praire folks are trying to remove the monarchy and all semblance of democracy! It's horrible!

Not really Holocaust Equivalent is that?

[Beedok]

Not really Holocaust Equivalent is that?
Just you wait. They're going to go a killing of the French based of how much that language suffers in timeline.

[Hercule Poirot]

But a bunch of angry Praire folks are trying to remove the monarchy and all semblance of democracy! It's horrible!

If you substituted "slum" for "prarie" its OTL Ulster.

[Mr.J]

Not really extremely dystopian-the US still has slavery, yes, but at the same time there are no industrial mass murder like the Holocaust, the Great Purges, the Great Leap Forward, or the Killing Fields.


The TL only gets to 1933 IIRC, so none of these things had happened yet OTL.

[Tallest Skil]

May as well get cracking with new acronyms for this scale. :p

OLC: One Little Change
CH2: Could Have Happened
LOL: Lots Of Luck
TML: Too Much Luck
NGH: Not Going to Happen
ASB: Alien Space Bats

[Hercule Poirot]

The TL only gets to 1933 IIRC, so none of these things had happened yet OTL.

We do see hints of what happens later, and none of them in the slightest imply that anything on the scale of those abovementioned events happened (ie for example the three Vitalist states described are New England, England, and Castille which resemble something Pinochet's Chile or Putinist Russia or at worst Mussolini's Italy more than Nazi Germany)

[The Kiat]

Never read For Want of a Nail, but I've heard Decades of Darkness called ASB. Also, I'd rank Fatherland as Practically Impossible, not semi-plausible.

One thing I do find realistic in Fatherland is that in the 1960s, there is still fighting going on in the Urals. Although I think it was suppose to be social engineering on the Nazi's behalf, trying to create a Sparta mentalitiy (Sparta was always at war with its helots).

[wietze]

as for decades of darkness, up till 1920 or so it could be considered somewhat plausible (some things were rather far fetched), but after that highly improbable almost asb, and somewhat becoming an aussiewank.

but looking at the scales, i think otl can be considered an anglowank (britwank first, then uswank), severe things in history were rather improbable.
If you would have told someone before the war about the amount of luck the japanese had, they would have called you crazy.

OTL in my eyes ranks a 3 or 4 on that scale. So be careful when you call something improbable.


Did you ignore what's happening to poor little Canada?:(

You mean the Canadians that resisted became slaves? (yes the yanquis have white slaves too)

[Bureaucromancer]

May as well get cracking with new acronyms for this scale. :p

OLC: One Little Change
CH2: Could Have Happened
LOL: Lots Of Luck
TML: Too Much Luck
NGH: Not Going to Happen
ASB: Alien Space Bats

This looks pretty good to me.