March 7th, 1936

[Viceroy]

I'd like to begin planning my first TL, and would like some imput. The general premise is that France and Germany go to war over the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936.

France divides germany up into for states, and along with the democracies in eastern and central Europe forms a proto-EU, excluding the British. Fascism takes hold in Italy and Iberia, and the British and Americans fight Japan over atrocities and agression in China/The Pacific.

Any imput?

[Shtudmuffin]

I'd like to begin planning my first TL, and would like some imput. The general premise is that France and Germany go to war over the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936.

France divides germany up into for states, and along with the democracies in eastern and central Europe forms a proto-EU, excluding the British. Fascism takes hold in Italy and Iberia, and the British and Americans fight Japan over atrocities and agression in China/The Pacific.

Any imput?

To start, welcome to the board.


Well, first off, it's nowhere near gauranteed that France/the Allies will win this one. Britain and France are only starting to rearm. Hell, France probably wouldn't declare war for that very reason. But anyway, if the war happens, I would predict that Germany rolls over France and easily cripples the RAF. I'm not entirely sure what the Soviets would do, though. And just because things happen differently in Europe, doesn't mean that things in the Far East such as Pearl Harbor will happen so differently or will be butterflied away. That being said, don't assume EVERYTHING will stay the same.


Anyway, though, my knowledge on this subject is limited, so I'll wait to be corrected by those after me. Good premise, but needs a little more investigation and research.

[Hades]

There was no way the Germans would be able to win, seeing as their army was mostly bark and no bite. Indeed, the plan was that if France called them on the remilitarisation of the rhineland, they would fall back. Think about what that would do to the Nazi image.

[StevoJH]

@Shtudmuffin,

This was 1936, not 1939.

The Luftwaffe was only "officially" formed in 1935.

While they have just over 4000 aircraft by the start of the war in 1939, it would have been a much different story in 1936.

Not to mention the rapid expansion of the German Army during those years.

[Meadow]

Indeed, it's well documented that the Heer's orders were to turn and 'run back the way you came' if they encountered any resistance from the French at any level. Germany was less ready for a war in 1936 than even Britain was.

[Snake Featherston]

To start, welcome to the board.


Well, first off, it's nowhere near gauranteed that France/the Allies will win this one. Britain and France are only starting to rearm. Hell, France probably wouldn't declare war for that very reason. But anyway, if the war happens, I would predict that Germany rolls over France and easily cripples the RAF. I'm not entirely sure what the Soviets would do, though. And just because things happen differently in Europe, doesn't mean that things in the Far East such as Pearl Harbor will happen so differently or will be butterflied away. That being said, don't assume EVERYTHING will stay the same.


Anyway, though, my knowledge on this subject is limited, so I'll wait to be corrected by those after me. Good premise, but needs a little more investigation and research.

There was no German army in 1936 able to hold up against the Italians, let alone the French. 1936 war produces a rapid, brutal curbstomp of the Germans by the French.

[Snake Featherston]

@Shtudmuffin,

This was 1936, not 1939.

The Luftwaffe was only "officially" formed in 1935.

While they have just over 4000 aircraft by the start of the war in 1939, it would have been a much different story in 1936.

Not to mention the rapid expansion of the German Army during those years.

And as it was even in 1940 there was no margin of superiority anywhere for Germany in a qualitative or quantitative sense. Rather what there was was a very huge gamble working just right because the French used all their reserves in Belgium.

[Viceroy]

Question: How do you think Britain would react to having France unilaterally enter war without consulting/informing them? I'd like to have the general British political mindset trend away from Europe and towards the Empire during the TL. How else could I do that?

[ccdsah]

Question: How do you think Britain would react to having France unilaterally enter war without consulting/informing them? I'd like to have the general British political mindset trend away from Europe and towards the Empire during the TL. How else could I do that?

You don't get it! There would be no war! The puny German forces would retreat at the slightest sign French showed hostile intentions

[Viceroy]

You don't get it! There would be no war! The puny German forces would retreat at the slightest sign French showed hostile intentions


Alright, I understand what you're saying. What I'm saying is that France would actively attack the Germans once they had fled the initial firefight on the Rhine, annihilating the entire Nazi political structure and dividing the country between several states (i.e. Bavaria)

[Meadow]

Alright, I understand what you're saying. What I'm saying is that France would actively attack the Germans once they had fled the initial firefight on the Rhine, annihilating the entire Nazi political structure and dividing the country between several states (i.e. Bavaria)

I'm not sure the French political situation in 1936 allows for this. A humiliation of the Germans would lead to a surge in support for the vindicated French government, and Hitler would be rightly seen as kept in check. There'd be no need to take any action apart from perhaps a temporary occupation of the Rhineland by the French.

[Fredrick II Barbarossa]

I'm not sure the French political situation in 1936 allows for this. A humiliation of the Germans would lead to a surge in support for the vindicated French government, and Hitler would be rightly seen as kept in check. There'd be no need to take any action apart from perhaps a temporary occupation of the Rhineland by the French.
so basically the same thing they did before the depression?

[Mikestone8]

I'm not sure the French political situation in 1936 allows for this. A humiliation of the Germans would lead to a surge in support for the vindicated French government, and Hitler would be rightly seen as kept in check. There'd be no need to take any action apart from perhaps a temporary occupation of the Rhineland by the French.


The occupation of the Ruhr did not produce a surge of support for the French governemnt. On the contrary, it was defeated at the polls in Jan 1924. Why assume that it would be different in 1936?

Also, if there is only to be a short occupation of the Rhineland, what happens when the French leave. Assuming that German rearmament continues, a point will soon be reached where they can reoccupy and get away with it. Sincce in any case French military plans now focus on the Maginot Line, hence imply writing off the DMZ, what exactly has been achieved?

[Meadow]

The occupation of the Ruhr did not produce a surge of support for the French governemnt. On the contrary, it was defeated at the polls in Jan 1924. Why assume that it would be different in 1936?

Also, if there is only to be a short occupation of the Rhineland, what happens when the French leave. Assuming that German rearmament continues, a point will soon be reached where they can reoccupy and get away with it. Sincce in any case French military plans now focus on the Maginot Line, hence imply writing off the DMZ, what exactly has been achieved?

Humiliating the Germany of 1923 can't be compared with the hypothetical containment of the Germany of 1936.

[The Red]

Indeed, it's well documented that the Heer's orders were to turn and 'run back the way you came' if they encountered any resistance from the French at any level. Germany was less ready for a war in 1936 than even Britain was.

Whilst the plan was for a hasty retreat back behind the Rhine, that was the plan of Field Marshal Van Blomberg, not Hitler. As Commander in Chief Van Blomberg was left responsible for any "possible military countermeasures" however when Hitler found that the true nature of those orders were 'run away', I doubt the Field Marshal would be around for long.

[Mikestone8]

Humiliating the Germany of 1923 can't be compared with the hypothetical containment of the Germany of 1936.


Why not? Would the average French voter be any keener on intervening in the Rhineland than in the Ruhr? after all, French (and British) occupation troops had been pulled from the region in 1930 - five years ahead of schedule. Would there be any real interest in going back for any length of time?

[DTF955Baseballfan]

Whilst the plan was for a hasty retreat back behind the Rhine, that was the plan of Field Marshal Van Blomberg, not Hitler. As Commander in Chief Van Blomberg was left responsible for any "possible military countermeasures" however when Hitler found that the true nature of those orders were 'run away', I doubt the Field Marshal would be around for long.

Hitler survived quite a few assassination attempts. Perhaps something like this:

One person (and his family if they were also threatened) is not locatable during the Night of the Long Knives (1934). This person escapes to notify the French of Hitler's personality, and that - while he doesn't have specifics, he suspects that while the Germans may try to turn tail and run, Hitler won't allow it. This allows for your butterfly of the French deciding to make a stand agaisnt Hitler, provided this figure (you'll have to research who) takes care of the rest.

Hitler orders Von Blomberg to "disappear permanently" and then this figure takes revenge by shooting Hitler. A small Civiil War ensues, doing the dmage that France might not have the desire to do in pushing further. Your Tl could then have the nations of Prussia (military dicatorship under one of the survivng Field Marshals) and whatever else you want.

I don't know if this is the sort of thing you're looking for, but I think it's more plausible than just "France splits it into 4 nations." Although you could see the League of Nations sit the sides down and say, in effect, "Why don't you each go to one part of Germany and not bother the others."

[Magnum]

If there's war, there's a big chance France goes bankrupt and defaults on its payments, as it was in the middle of a big financial crisis they barely got out of.

[Living in Exile]

How severely would the French respond realistically? It seems reasonable to imagine the French expelling the Nazis from the Rhineland, and the war ending there. But to get a scenario like the OP is talking about, the French need to make the decision to go in and remove Hitler from power, which seems like it would take a lot more effort. As the writer of the timeline, you need to come up with a good POD or reason why the French go all out Viceroy. I don't know how much detail you're planning on going into, but I'd research what military units the French/Nazis had to fight this war.

[Viceroy]

For plausability's sake, I will have Germany break up through civil war in the face of a humiliating defeat by France. The French will mediate and draw up new borders.

Thanks for the input. :)

[LOTLOF]

France is not going to declare war.

There is no political will for such a major undertaking. Their financial situation and the country's disunity and memories of the slaughter of the last war make it impossible. Even if they realize their overwhelming advantage they would have to call a general mobilization and even if they are able to march into Berlin in weeks there would still be a long and expensive occupation.

And remember that if you do split up Germany into weaker smaller states they will have a much harder time making reparation payments. No Germany also makes the Soviet Union that much stronger in eastern and central Europe. Are you going to make Poland a counterweight to the Soviets?

The British were well aware of this and were willing to allow a moderately strong Germany. They would not have supported France in a war, though they would have supported them in keeping the Rhineland demilitarized.

France might well have decided to occupy the Rhineland again for a few more years and been more insistent on Germany meeting it's reparation payments.

Hitler would suffer a great loss of face and the military and conservatives might have second thoughts about him and his new Germany. The military especially would be more independent than it was in OTL. After all they've been humiliated too, and it's now obvious that Hitler is NOT always right.

[Xgentis]

If France opose the german reocupation of the Rhineland Hitler is finished. Afterall no one in the military leadership wanter a war just yet they would remove him.

[Cook]

Hitler’s remilitarization of the Rhineland was in direct violation not only of the Treaty of Versailles, but also of the Locarno Pact signed in 1925. As such he had committed a hostile act and one that threatened the basic assumptions of France’s national security; France had full legal justification to use military force to expel the German armed forces from the Rhineland. Had they wished, the French had the forces to do so; the Wehrmacht had sent nineteen infantry battalions to occupy the Rhineland, a total of 32,000 troops out of overall army strength of 250,000. This was backed by Luftwaffe strength of only ten available armed aircraft. France, without calling up reserves had 320,000 troops available in mainland France, there were also 100,000 native troops in North Africa that were able to be moved to the mainland on short notice. The French air force was also sizable. If there were a battle for the Rhineland it would have been decidedly one sided even if the French hadn’t mobilized their huge army reserve.

There would not have been a battle for the Rhineland even if the French had reacted; Hitler was bluffing and had given orders that no resistance was to be offered to any French reaction. At the first sign of trouble his forces were to march out of the Rhineland as quickly as they had marched in; Germany simply lacked the strength for a fight. Conscription had only been reintroduced the year before, rearmament had barely started and the Luftwaffe had just celebrated its first birthday and consisted of mostly training aircraft.

Had they decided to do so the French could have marched into the Rhineland in strength, unopposed and because of the treaties of Versailles and Locarno, fully within their rights to do so and to remain until the situation in Germany improved, depriving Hitler of the mining and industry of the entire Rhineland including the Saar, and exposing the Ruhr industrial heartland of Germany to bombardment should fighting breakout.

If that had happened, the mystique of Fuhrer infallibility that started then and grew with each successive back-down by the western powers in the years that followed would have been stillborn. Hitler would have faced more resistance internally to Germany’s path to war. Even if the bumbling German opposition to Hitler had never improved, Hitler would still have been faced with French control of the Rhineland buffer, the broad obstacle of the Rhine itself, in some places half a kilometre wide and swiftly flowing, as well as ground east of the Rhine itself.

Instead the French did nothing for a number of reasons, the first being Hitler’s perfect timing; France was only six weeks away from an election and military action, even though it could be fully justified, would have been hugely unpopular with the French electorate. The government shouldn’t have concerned themselves with that; the economy was so bad they were already on the nose with voters and should have been more concerned with the threat to the nation than to the threat to their political majority.

The second reason was that France was in the middle of economic crisis of the great depression (whose onset and end were both delayed in France) and wars, even limited wars, are hugely expensive. That losing a war is even more expensive seems to have been forgotten.

The third reason is that France in the interwar period never did anything unilaterally, insisting on consulting London first on everything. This was rather odd since the British, even if they were interested in stopping Hitler didn’t have any means with which to do so. As it was the British were not interested in supporting France against Germany at this time.

[Viceroy]

Thanks, I'm nearly finished drafting the TL. Second question: should the 3rd Reich falter would Italy be likely to invade Austria?

[Viceroy]

The first part of my drft:


1936 CE-
March 7th-The German Army, in direct violation of multiple international treaties, attempts to reoccupy the Rhineland. The French military fires of German troops who come within range of their positions.

March 8th- French units are engaged with German troops in the Rhineland. Hitler’s men have advanced too quickly and without enough caution; the French have not had time to withdraw.

March 9th- The French Army in the Rhineland expels Nazi forces from the area but do not pursue into Germany. The French leadership holds a meeting to deliberate further actions. Economic leaders warn of economic frailty, but fear of allowing the obviously belligerent German Reich to recover prevails.

March 10th- France declares war on Germany. French military units begin attacks into Baden.

March 14th- Battle of Frankfurt: French infantry launch an attack on the city of Frankfurt and rout the weaker German army from the field, inflicting heavy casualties and taking relatively light losses.

March 20th to 28th- German Freikorps militia launch mass attacks on French units advancing eastward. The French lightning advance across Germany is halted, though it is a pyrrhic victory for the Germans.

April 2nd- The Nazi government sues for peace with France, though they refuse to surrender unconditionally and the war continues.

April 9th- The French air force begins operations over western Germany, completely sweeping what miniscule resistance they face from the skies in one day.

April 10th- The French take Hamburg and begin an invasion of Bavaria.

April 22nd- Fascists and socialists begin open combat in Austria: official beginning of Austrian Civil War.

April 23rd- Munich is attacked by the French. When the troops arrived the city was barricaded by civilians and police. The city is bypassed by the French who elect to continue advancing.

April 28th- Hitler flees to Sweden and Germany capitulates.

April 30th- Weimar republic restored, France withdraws from Germany.

May 9th- Bavaria secedes peacefully from Germany.

May 10th- The weak and impoverished Weimar government is forced to allow Bavaria to secede. The Bavarians invite Rupprecht of the House of Wittelsbach to return to the throne of Bavaria as King.

May 14th- Socialist forces begin gaining ground over the fascists. Fearing a socialist victory, Mussolini invades the Austrian Alps.

[KACKO]

And what if France will scream Varsailes system is in danger and get help from Poland and Czecoslovakia? Berlin would fall how fast to Polish army.:)