Could the HRE have absorbed Hungary and Poland?

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

I'm thinking of something similar to what happened to Bohemia. Obviously it would be helped if Hungary and Poland were vassalized before they had a chance to expand their territory too much.

[Elfwine]

In a word: No.

A united HRE could try - but that requires a challenging set of obstacles.

Poland is easier, but Hungary might be a real problem, and both is a mouthful.

Especially if the HRE has anything to worry about from France or elsewhere (quite likely), or other ambitions.

[Cecil]

Well its going to be hard. First you need some sort of centralized HRE and that in itself is going to be a difficult proposition. And you cant do it too late, I´d say preferbly before they grow in size and you need several hundred years to absorb them before the age of nationalism.

Also I think we need some sort of seriously damaging war or plague that allows for settlers from germany to form a serious influx of people. I´m thinking the 30 years war on scale of damage. Problem is there really anything worth fighting over that badly out east. Also I dont know if the "locusts of war" could be that effective in the early time period you need. I suppose the closest comparison we have are the companies in France 1350-56 but I dont know if thats enough. A seriously damaging plague would probably not stay local thus defeating the purpose since it´ll empty a lot of homesteads in the HRE too.

Though I guess some sort of early super centralized HRE could add them through conquests or marriage but I dont think thats possible in the era we are talking about and neither would it be "the HRE" in any case.

[Simon]

Outside of Europa Universalis III probably not. ;)

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Why in the world are you guys hung up on centralization? The HRE was experiencing the opposite process when Bohemia was absorbed. It's got nothing to do with what I'm asking.

[Grouchio]

Outside of Europa Universalis III probably not. ;)Or Medieval 2 Total War and it's many mods. :rolleyes:

[TyranicusMaximus]

Why in the world are you guys hung up on centralization? The HRE was experiencing the opposite process when Bohemia was absorbed. It's got nothing to do with what I'm asking.

I was under the (mistaken?) impression that the HRE 'created' the Kingdom of Bohemia. Hungary and Poland were independent kingdoms from the start.

[Marko]

As long as Hungary doesn't unite with Croatia it will have much closer relations with HRE and is more likely to be absorbed.

[MarshalBraginsky]

So where would Croatia go if it isn't united with Hungary? I could hardly see it as an independent state and a buffer zone in the same level as the Kingdom of Bosnia.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

I was under the (mistaken?) impression that the HRE 'created' the Kingdom of Bohemia. Hungary and Poland were independent kingdoms from the start.

It was absorbed while a duchy and one of its dukes took advantage of a civil war in the HRE to get himself the title of king some 200 years later.

[Fredrick II Barbarossa]

Maybe Sigismund of Luxembourgh manages to somehow secure the imperial throne for his dynasty. Thoughts?

[thrashing_mad]

Well, other Polish duchies during period of feudal fragmentation might gravitate towards HRE just like Silesian Piasts did in 13th-14th centuries. Maybe if Henry the Pious living longer could keep title of high duke of Poland, and pass it to his descendants - eventually leading to kingdom of Poland within HRE (with Silesia, without Masovia).

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

So where would Croatia go if it isn't united with Hungary? I could hardly see it as an independent state and a buffer zone in the same level as the Kingdom of Bosnia.

I don't see why it couldn't work as a buffer. Or it could be conquered by Byzantium or Bulgaria or whatever regional power the Serbs end up forming.

[Marko]

So where would Croatia go if it isn't united with Hungary? I could hardly see it as an independent state and a buffer zone in the same level as the Kingdom of Bosnia.

Croatia could stay independent considering the Papal support that Bosnia never had. Another posibility is closer relations with Naples in a sort of anti Venice/Byzanite aliance. Even ending under the Byzantine vassalage like her other southern slavic neighbours.

Unlike Bosnia that was only a player on the big scene during Tvrtko (2nd half of the 14th century) Croatia prior to the unification with Hungary was a serious player in the power strugles for control of the Adriatic and the Balkans. Should unification with Hungary be butterflied for any reason there is little evidence such a position would change. On the other hand Venice would never rise to its position and the south slavic world would have been much more culturaly and arhitecturaly richer.

[kasumigenx]

I think for Poland, a Silesian united Poland could be an ally or an electorate of HRE...but I think the easiest route would be a ZapadoSlavia like state, which is what the Przemyslids were trying to establish in the late 13th century.


For Hungary, I think it might need to lose Transylvania and it's other Orthodox provinces.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Croatia could stay independent considering the Papal support that Bosnia never had. Another posibility is closer relations with Naples in a sort of anti Venice/Byzanite aliance. Even ending under the Byzantine vassalage like her other southern slavic neighbours.

Unlike Bosnia that was only a player on the big scene during Tvrtko (2nd half of the 14th century) Croatia prior to the unification with Hungary was a serious player in the power strugles for control of the Adriatic and the Balkans. Should unification with Hungary be butterflied for any reason there is little evidence such a position would change. On the other hand Venice would never rise to its position and the south slavic world would have been much more culturaly and arhitecturaly richer.

Croatia as a Byzantine vassal? Could it also end up being absorbed by Byzantium?

[Elfwine]

Croatia as a Byzantine vassal? Could it also end up being absorbed by Byzantium?

Potentially, although how well the Byzantines can hold on to it is a good question.

Not to mention why they'd want it as part of the empire instead of a vassal, although this is easy enough to answer, it does need an answer other than "because".

On the issue of centralization and the HRE: Because a noncentralized HRE isn't going to be able to hold on to Poland or Hungary in any meaningful sense, that's why.

[Monty Burns]

Now considering Hungary, we should remember that for quite a long time the Emperor was in personal union king of Hungary. The fact that he didn't try to get Hungary within the HRE even though it might have been possible is the clue. You could also have a northern German prince rule Poland and become Emperor, still he wouldn't want to unite his domains.

[Marko]

I just remembered something that might be of importance the position of Kingship to rulers of Bohemia and Poland was given by the HRE Emperor. So just as Bohemia ended as part of HRE Poland might also. On the other hand Hungary was given Kingship by the Pope. Change history so that it is also given by the HRE and that might happen.

[Elfwine]

Bohemia was part of the HRE already when it was made a kingdom, though.

Who gives the crown acknowledging the state as a kingdom isn't nearly as important as if the HRE can exercise any meaningful authority over the new kingdoms.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

On the issue of centralization and the HRE: Because a noncentralized HRE isn't going to be able to hold on to Poland or Hungary in any meaningful sense, that's why.

I don't want it to hold on to them, I just want it to vassalize them as it did Bohemia. The only reason it "held on" to Bohemia is because it became a Habsburg estate and they also held the imperial throne. Something like that could happen, but I really, really, really am not demanding it. If Poland and Hungary become local powers within a decentralized HRE as Brandenburg and Bavaria did in OTL it would suit me just fine.

Please stop making assumptions about what I have in mind. I know you've all been in a million discussions about centralization and decentralization in the HRE but this isn't what the OP was about. If the answer to the title question is yes, then we can have a discussion about what such an expansion would to to the Empire's cohesion.

[Monty Burns]

Who gives the crown acknowledging the state as a kingdom isn't nearly as important as if the HRE can exercise any meaningful authority over the new kingdoms.

If the ability of the HRE to exercise any meaningful authority is crucial to be considered part of the HRE, then I guess the HRE was actually far smaller than most maps depict it...

[Elfwine]

I don't want it to hold on to them, I just want it to vassalize them as it did Bohemia. The only reason it "held on" to Bohemia is because it became a Habsburg estate and they also held the imperial throne. Something like that could happen, but I really, really, really am not demanding it. If Poland and Hungary become local powers within a decentralized HRE as Brandenburg and Bavaria did in OTL it would suit me just fine.


Easier said than done when the empire has enough on its plate as is.


Please stop making assumptions about what I have in mind. I know you've all been in a million discussions about centralization and decentralization in the HRE but this isn't what the OP was about. If the answer to the title question is yes, then we can have a discussion about what such an expansion would to to the Empire's cohesion.The problem is, the HRE held on to Bohemia because Bohemia was legally incorporated within the Empire. If it was just like Hungary was OTL (which is to say, the emperor is also King), it would never be part of the HRE - although I presume that would be good enough for your scenario, it would be a different situation than legally incorporating them within the HRE as opposed to having them having their own laws, customs, and taxes - which is worth noting.

An Empire that is not centralized cannot impose control over these places if their rulers decide "You know, screw the empire.", so it won't be able to absorb them.

Monty Burns: The point is, as fully independent kingdoms unless they choose to offer allegiance (in which case, why?), there's not even the nominal obligation for them to pretend to be part of the HRE.

[thrashing_mad]

I just remembered something that might be of importance the position of Kingship to rulers of Bohemia and Poland was given by the HRE Emperor. So just as Bohemia ended as part of HRE Poland might also. On the other hand Hungary was given Kingship by the Pope. Change history so that it is also given by the HRE and that might happen.

In case of Poland royal title was given by the Pope not the emperor.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Easier said than done when the empire has enough on its plate as is.

Easy enough to do in that it is precisely what Brandenburg and Bavaria did. The contents of the Empire's plate have nothing to do with it because, for the 3rd time, I'm not asking for a centralized HRE.

The problem is, the HRE held on to Bohemia because Bohemia was legally incorporated within the Empire.

This is factually wrong.

If it was just like Hungary was OTL (which is to say, the emperor is also King), it would never be part of the HRE - although I presume that would be good enough for your scenario, it would be a different situation than legally incorporating them within the HRE as opposed to having them having their own laws, customs, and taxes - which is worth noting.

And this is simply bizarre.

An Empire that is not centralized cannot impose control over these places if their rulers decide "You know, screw the empire.", so it won't be able to absorb them.

I'll grant you that the thread title and OP were ambiguous on what I had in mind, but I've repeatedly clarified what I meant by absorption and you're repeatedly ignoring it.

[Elfwine]

Easy enough to do in that it is precisely what Brandenburg and Bavaria did. The contents of the Empire's plate have nothing to do with it because, for the 3rd time, I'm not asking for a centralized HRE.

And Brandenburg and Bavaria were part of the HRE. And I know you're not asking for one, I'm saying one is necessary for this to happen, or they won't remain vassals for long.


This is factually wrong.
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/71528/Bohemia

"A kingdom within the Holy Roman Empire".

And throughout its history as kingdom not in personal union with the imperial house, we see the dukes and kings accepting that - yes, including Ottokar II, who was not rebelling against Imperial authority in the sense of the Emperor being his sovereign but just being a pretender to the throne, at most.


And this is simply bizarre.
What's bizarre about it?


I'll grant you that the thread title and OP were ambiguous on what I had in mind, but I've repeatedly clarified what I meant by absorption and you're repeatedly ignoring it.No, I'm pointing out that the only way they become part of the HRE is either a) voluntary on their part (and why would they want to be part of the empire?) or b) the Empire being able to control the area, and when the Emperor can only barely influence things within its OTL borders, Poland and Hungary are too much.

Making them vassals of the Emperor like Bohemia means that they have to pledge allegiance and obedience to the Emperor - which requires either them feeling its to their advantage or the Emperor being able to impose his authority, same as any other way of incorporating them.

[scholar]

I'm thinking of something similar to what happened to Bohemia. Obviously it would be helped if Hungary and Poland were vassalized before they had a chance to expand their territory too much.
Yes, it is certainly possible given a few PODs, but Hungary and Poland were strong states very much free from HRE influence. It would take some doing.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

And Brandenburg and Bavaria were part of the HRE.

Are you mocking me?

This is what I said: "If Poland and Hungary become local powers within a decentralized HRE as Brandenburg and Bavaria did in OTL it would suit me just fine."

Just what the hell are you trying to pull here?

And I know you're not asking for one, I'm saying one is necessary for this to happen.And you're saying this based on...?

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/71528/Bohemia

"A kingdom within the Holy Roman Empire".

And throughout its history as kingdom not in personal union with the imperial house, we see the dukes and kings accepting that - yes, including Ottokar II, who was not rebelling against Imperial authority in the sense of the Emperor being his sovereign but just being a pretender to the throne, at most.Please tell me this whole weirdness is not all about you wildly misinterpreting a line from Britannica. Bohemia was not "legally incorporated within the Empire," it was made a component of it just like all the others. Bohemia had the same relation to the HRE as did the other estates under immediate imperial authority (which is to say, vassals of the Emperor and not vassals of his vassals), minus the fact that some were electorates and others weren't. When Bohemia did finally lose independence, over 5 centuries after being vassalized, it had nothing to do with the Empire becoming more centralized - it obviously hadn't - and it did not lose its independence to the Empire to begin with, it lost it to the Habsburgs, who unlike the also foreign Luxembourgs were already so strong that they made Bohemia a province of their domain rather than its center (Rudolf II excepted).

What's bizarre about it?I'm hesitating to criticize the error you appear to be making because it's inconsistent with the other error you're making.

No, I'm pointing out that the only way they become part of the HRE is either a) voluntary on their part (and why would they want to be part of the empire?)No, the question is why they would accept becoming vassals of the Holy Roman Emperor. And the obvious answers are, because the Emperor is a threat (it would be centuries before decentralization had advanced past that point, just think Frederick Barbarossa), or because the Emperor offers defense against another threat.

or b) the Empire being able to control the area, and when the Emperor can only barely influence things within its OTL borders, Poland and Hungary are too much.Obvious you'd be circling back to that again. No point in me even repeating that direct authority is not what I have in mind, who gives a shit what the person who started the thread thinks it's about?

You seem to be more intent on being rude than anything else here, which is not surprising, but which really isn't helping produce anything.There once was a person on this forum, now banned, who I had a pretty good opinion of in spite of some deep disagreements between us and with whom I got along quite well. One day, this person thought it would be a splendid idea to use me as a punching bag in the sort of debate he'd had a million times before but which I was not interested in. And while he was at it, he figured he'd also lie to my face about what I was saying and insult me for not showing interest in his preferred topics. This person then instantly joined my ignore list.

That was someone I liked. You're someone I had a bad impression of even before this thread. Forget your crimes against intellectual rigor in our Cold War "debate," you all but called me a Confederate apologists because you didn't agree with me in an ACW thread.

You've no idea what it would be like if I intended to be rude.

Yes, it is certainly possible given a few PODs, but Hungary and Poland were strong states very much free from HRE influence. It would take some doing.

As I said in the OP, do it early on, before Hungary has expanded to the south and Poland to the north and east.

[Elfwine]

Are you mocking me?

This is what I said: "If Poland and Hungary become local powers within a decentralized HRE as Brandenburg and Bavaria did in OTL it would suit me just fine."

Just what the hell are you trying to pull here?


Except that they won't. They'll be independent powers not even paying lip service to the Emperor.

And I'm trying point out that the HRE expanding is not going to happen unless the HRE is stronger than OTL.


And you're saying this based on...?


The fact that a weak Emperor is in no position to either protect anyone, or overshadow anyone.


Please tell me this whole weirdness is not all about you wildly misinterpreting a line from Britannica. Bohemia was not "legally incorporated within the Empire," it was made a component of it just like all the others. Bohemia had the same relation to the HRE as did the other estates under immediate imperial authority (which is to say, vassals of the Emperor and not vassals of his vassals), minus the fact that some were electorates and others weren't. When Bohemia did finally lose independence, over 5 centuries after being vassalized, it had nothing to do with the Empire becoming more centralized - it obviously hadn't - and it did not lose its independence to the Empire to begin with, it lost it to the Habsburgs, who unlike the also foreign Luxembourgs were already so strong that they made Bohemia a province of their domain rather than its center (Rudolf II excepted). Having the same relationship to the Empire as (for instance) Bavaria does mean that it is part of the Empire - a vassal of the Emperor, part of the area ruled over by the guy with the "Emperor" title.

Same as Burgundy was part of France well before Charles the Bold kicked the bucket.


I'm hesitating to criticize the error you appear to be making because it's inconsistent with the other error you're making.
[/quote

:confused:

[quote]
No, the question is why they would accept becoming vassals of the Holy Roman Emperor. And the obvious answers are, because the Emperor is a threat (it would be centuries before decentralization had advanced past that point, just think Frederick Barbarossa), or because the Emperor offers defense against another threat. 1) Which only applies if the Emperor is stronger than OTL, because when the Emperor can't even ensure that his current territories are obedient (see Italy for Barbarossa), he's in no position to impose his rule on Poland or Hungary,

2) Which definitely requires a stronger Emperor and empire than it was after the Investiture controversy. Not impossible, but the reason centralization keeps getting brought up. A decentralized empire cannot offer much of a shield to these kingdoms.


Obvious you'd be circling back to that again. No point in me even repeating that direct authority is not what I have in mind, who gives a shit what the person who started the thread thinks it's about? The problem is that being "like Bohemia" means that the kings pledge allegiance to the Emperor, as part of the Empire, not as independent states. So as long as the thread starter misrepresents Bohemia's status, "like Bohemia" is going to be treated like historical Bohemia - a component of the Empire - not EU III Bohemia.


You've no idea what it would be like if I intended to be rude.
If you want to go fishing, just ask a mod, don't go to the trouble of demonstrating that you're arrogant, thin skinned, and insulting and making others regard you as nothing more than a jerk (not even a well informed jerk, just a jerk).

[Kulkasha]

IIRC, Bohemia was absorbed into the HRE after serving as a tennis ball in an extended match between Polish and German suzerainty. Conceivably you would have to have an even bigger rival to the east of Poland to have the same thing happen with Poland, which strikes me as hard given that the closest power - Kievan Rus - was politically fractured.
Hungary, I have no idea.

[Elfwine]

IIRC, Bohemia was absorbed into the HRE after serving as a tennis ball in an extended match between Polish and German suzerainty. Conceivably you would have to have an even bigger rival to the east of Poland to have the same thing happen with Poland, which strikes me as hard given that the closest power - Kievan Rus - was politically fractured.
Hungary, I have no idea.

Theoretically, the Byzantines, although why they're such a threat (given that they're not interested in taking Hungary and Hungary is not insubstantial on its own, so it doesn't need to beg the so-called Emperor for help to this extent even if the Emperor can deliver it) is a good question.

[Kulkasha]

Theoretically, the Byzantines, although why they're such a threat (given that they're not interested in taking Hungary and Hungary is not insubstantial on its own, so it doesn't need to beg the so-called Emperor for help to this extent even if the Emperor can deliver it) is a good question.
Actually some sort of greater Serbia or Bulgaria would work (maybe a surviving Great Moravia*, but that would lead to massive butterflies from the Dark Ages on), seeing as the Byzantines had no shortage of trouble holding on to what they had OTL in the Balkans.
* - I'm working off of the "Great Old Moravia being based at the southern edge of the Hungarian Plain" theory here, not the traditional "Great Old Moravia being based in modern Moravia simply because they both have the same name" theory.

[Elfwine]

Actually some sort of greater Serbia or Bulgaria would work (maybe a surviving Great Moravia*, but that would lead to massive butterflies from the Dark Ages on), seeing as the Byzantines had no shortage of trouble holding on to what they had OTL in the Balkans.
* - I'm working off of the "Great Old Moravia being based at the southern edge of the Hungarian Plain" theory here, not the traditional "Great Old Moravia being based in modern Moravia simply because they both have the same name" theory.

It's possible, but it would have such significant butterflies I'd be hesitate to use it without studying the area more.

Either way, you need an Emperor strong enough to actually do some good here, which is what Hoodbhoy seems oblivious to - an Imperial vassal means an Imperial subject and an Emperor able to defend Hungary (or Poland) against another threat has to be strong enough to face that threat the resources available from his existing vassals.

[Thespitron 6000]

Maximilian II came damned close to getting elected King of Poland in 1575, in fact, he was elected by the Sejm, but the nobles refused to go along, and as a result Ann Jagiellon was elected instead. If you have a more amenable Polish nobility, you could have the Hapsburgs taking over Polish monarchical elections the same way they did Bohemia.

[Elfwine]

Maximilian II came damned close to getting elected King of Poland in 1575, in fact, he was elected by the Sejm, but the nobles refused to go along, and as a result Ann Jagiellon was elected instead. If you have a more amenable Polish nobility, you could have the Hapsburgs taking over Polish monarchical elections the same way they did Bohemia.

But Bohemia wasn't an elective monarchy, was it?

Still, it might be a good start. Beats any other method I can think of, assuming the Habsburgs stay as Emperors.

[Thespitron 6000]

But Bohemia wasn't an elective monarchy, was it?

On occasion, most notably the accession of Ferdinand II and John the Blind, it was.

[Elfwine]

On occasion, most notably the accession of Ferdinand II and John the Blind, it was.

Interesting, I did not know that.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

If you want to go fishing, just ask a mod, don't go to the trouble of demonstrating that you're arrogant, thin skinned, and insulting and making others regard you as nothing more than a jerk (not even a well informed jerk, just a jerk).

I suppose I should be grateful for this, it liberates me from the need to once again correct you on what kind of relation Bohemia had with the HRE and clarify that I defined absorption to mean vassalage. Which would be a waste of time since I'm obviously not getting through to you, but a waste of time I'd usually find hard to resist. Your decision to jump straight to the insults liberates me to simply report you and add you to my ignore list. Which I will do upon posting this reply. Thanks.

Interesting, I did not know that.

And were it the only thing you didn't know.

[Thespitron 6000]

Interesting, I did not know that.

Basically, it wasn't an official elective monarchy, but the cooperation of the nobles in the diet was necessary for accession. On multiple occasions, the diet threw out a king they didn't like and put in one they did. In fact, Ferdinand I was elected King of Bohemia after Louis the Jagiellon got himself killed at the Battle of Mohacs.

[Elfwine]

Basically, it wasn't an official elective monarchy, but the cooperation of the nobles in the diet was necessary for accession. On multiple occasions, the diet threw out a king they didn't like and put in one they did. In fact, Ferdinand I was elected King of Bohemia after Louis the Jagiellon got himself killed at the Battle of Mohacs.

Ahhh. This explains the situation of it looking hereditary, but with those two (any other?) examples.

Sort of a situation where the diet has to confirm the heir, but by default, that's rubber stamping?

[Thespitron 6000]

Ahhh. This explains the situation of it looking hereditary, but with those two (any other?) examples.

Sort of a situation where the diet has to confirm the heir, but by default, that's rubber stamping?

Matthew Corvinus, George of Podebrady...here, just look at this list (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rulers_of_Bohemia). :D

[MSZ]

Well, both Weneclaus II and Weneclaus III managed to get crowned as Kings of Poland. So perhaps if they manage establish a Premyslid dynasty in Poland due its fragmentation, a decendent of them may pay homage to the Holy Roman Emperor as both King of Bohemia and King of Poland.

[Elfwine]

Matthew Corvinus, George of Podebrady...here, just look at this list (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rulers_of_Bohemia). :D

Huh. Sounds definitely "largely dynastic, but . . ." to me.

[The Professor]

I'm thinking of something similar to what happened to Bohemia. Obviously it would be helped if Hungary and Poland were vassalized before they had a chance to expand their territory too much.

In order for the HRE to absorb a neighbouring state said state needs to be weaker than the Empire/Emperor.
The best way to do that would be early PODs that produce more a fragmented Poland or Hungary.

One way would be for Poland to never unify as a single kingdom - lots of duchies and such with the westernmost being absorbed like Bohemia.
Then have a King/High Duke of Bohemia become HRE and he could start adding the remainder.

[CalBear]

...

If you want to go fishing, just ask a mod, don't go to the trouble of demonstrating that you're arrogant, thin skinned, and insulting and making others regard you as nothing more than a jerk (not even a well informed jerk, just a jerk).

There are SO many things I could say here...

I'll just go with the standards:

Remember when you point one finger at someone you get three pointing back at you.

&

Pot, meet kettle.

From this point forward, THINK before you post.

[Avitus]

At alate POD, I think that Poland might be hard/impossible, but early renaissance dynastic connections might make it possible for one of the kings of Hungary to inherit Austria, and thus be a prime candidate for being elected emperor. If the Hungarian line ruled for a few generations, and continued to be well liked in Hungary, then they might attempt to give Hungary a position in the electorate, in order to guarentee additional support for thieir dynasty. This in turn may or may not create lasting changes for Hungary, but I think that it would count as absortion as defined by the OP.

[Gonzaga]

Any chance for the lands of the Teutonic Knights be integrated into the Empire as an ecclesiastical state?

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Any chance for the lands of the Teutonic Knights be integrated into the Empire as an ecclesiastical state?

If Poland is integrated in the HRE then yes, definitely, but then the first question is whether they'd be invited to the Baltic coast (and before that Transylvania) to begin with if Poland and Hungary are members of the HRE. I'm not sure what the background for those decisions was in OTL and what alternatives may present themselves in this different political context.

Since people have asked what would happen to Croatia, I'll do a northern variation of that and ask what you guys think would happen to Halych-Volhynia.

[thrashing_mad]

If Poland is integrated in the HRE then yes, definitely, but then the first question is whether they'd be invited to the Baltic coast (and before that Transylvania) to begin with if Poland and Hungary are members of the HRE. I'm not sure what the background for those decisions was in OTL and what alternatives may present themselves in this different political context.


United Poland (or different political landscape) in early 13th century pretty much butterflies away invitation of Teutonic Order, since they were invited by duke of Masovia, who wasn't powerful enough to deal with Prussians by himself.

[Gonzaga]

If Poland is integrated in the HRE then yes, definitely, but then the first question is whether they'd be invited to the Baltic coast (and before that Transylvania) to begin with if Poland and Hungary are members of the HRE. I'm not sure what the background for those decisions was in OTL and what alternatives may present themselves in this different political context.

I was thinking if the other way round could be possible: the "Teutonic State" is integrated into the Empire, and later in order to have Imperial protection against the Knights the rulers of the Polish principalities eventually accept the Emperor as their overlord (I'm assuming that it would be easier if we keep Poland fragmented).

[Admiral Matt]

Well, there's a pretty good argument that Poland was being absorbed into Germany as late as 1200. Not absorbed like Bohemia per se; it was more akin to the first stages of cultural assimilation experienced by Finland and Ireland, obviously excepting the unitary foreign overlord. If anything though, there was even more German settlement in Poland than in either Bohemia or the aforementioned examples. IIRC, Poland at that time was no longer functioning at a kingdom level. Instead various duchy-level entities (I think duchies) independently ruled the region. They experienced and even promoted German immigration and were looking increasingly to the west and HRE as an authority.

As such it is quite probable that straight line continuation would have seen Poland incorporated into the Holy Roman Empire and gradually Germanized. In fact Silesia experienced just that. At this time the Baltic coast was pagan-being-overrun-with-crusaders, and the rest of "Poland" was divided between Greater Poland and Silesia in the west, larger Masovia and Lesser Poland in the east, and the city-state of Krakow. Poland as a kingdom likely would not have survived the loss of a second, certainly not a third. At that stage the eastern pair are likely to be subsumed for practical and religious reasons - they're too small to operate independently in the long haul, but too catholic to merge with the patchwork of petty Russian states as they might otherwise. German settlement would have continued, and the nobility would speak only French and Latin when they weren't speaking German. By the modern era, Polish would be a minority tongue.

Of course, there are reasons enough why this didn't happen. Most visibly, the Mongols arrived to wreak havoc precisely where eastward migration had been directed. Superficially this last ought to have accelerated the process - Poland was devastated, but Germany left virtually untouched. In practice though, the German population of Poland was disproportionately affected, immigration may have slowed (it seems likely, but I can't find a source), and, decisively, the HRE utterly failed to capitalize on the situation. Efforts at imperial centralization had failed, an emperor drowned on crusade, emperors and popes squandered their strength against each other, and so on ad infinitum. The opportunity afforded by the Mongol invasion could have accelerated Germanization and made it permanent - Silesia and the successes of the Teutonic Order make that clear - but it would have taken some level of effort to make it so. In Germany there was no unitary body to make that attempt at the time in question.

Hungary is a different matter, but could have been politically absorbed in the right circumstances as well. Cultural and linguistic absorption is a different matter.

So, yes. It is possible. With Poland it even took rather poor luck and timing to avoid that result.

I recommend Faeelin's Prince of Peace as a fair example of how to prepare this situation. Though be warned that Hungary remains independent by the timeline's end.

[kasumigenx]

I think a "ZapadoSlavia" entity is a good addition to HRE asside from having Occitan and French speakers to the West because Poland and Bohemia will create a united Slavic Bloc in the HRE.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

I think a "ZapadoSlavia" entity is a good addition to HRE asside from having Occitan and French speakers to the West because Poland and Bohemia will create a united Slavic Bloc in the HRE.

Slavic solidarity was non-existent, Poland and Bohemia are more likely to clash over Silesia and foreign relations in this time and place were dominated by dynastic concerns.

Any ideas about Halych-Volhynia? Anyone?

[thrashing_mad]

So, yes. It is possible. With Poland it even took rather poor luck and timing to avoid that result.

It's the opposite I think. Should Poland avoid fragmentation period after Boleslaw the Wrymouth, it would most likely hold on Silesia and not invite Teutonic Order to Prussia. Mongol devastation and depopulation actually accelerated German migration and in effect, Germanization, not the other way around. Not to mention that Silesian Henries would most likely hold power over most of Poland without Mongols. I think that the main problem is that while technically kingdom of Poland didn't exist during that period, title itself existed, and sooner or later someone would claim it as OTL. Of course absorption into HRE is possible, with Wladyslaw Elbow high failing against Bohemia/Teutonic Order/Brandenburg, for example. Would it result in almost complete Germanization similar to situation in Ireland? Highly doubtful, since even less numerous Czechs retained their language. Plus in many areas settling Germans were actually Polonised. Polish language would certainly evolve differently, but would not disappear.

[kasumigenx]

Slavic solidarity was non-existent, Poland and Bohemia are more likely to clash over Silesia and foreign relations in this time and place were dominated by dynastic concerns.

Any ideas about Halych-Volhynia? Anyone?



I think it might most likely turn Catholic, it was on that path before the mongols attacked Eastern Europe.

[Elfwine]

I think it might most likely turn Catholic, it was on that path before the mongols attacked Eastern Europe.

Did that really extend deeper than the royal house, if that?

[Eurofed]

This was quite feasible at some degree. The most likely and "natural" way to do so would require a successful centralization of the HRE under the Ottonians or Staufen (which by the way, would all but surely ensure the cultural assimilation of Bohemia as well), and for Poland, a deeper, longer-lasting fragmentation of the Polish kingdom in duchies.

As it concerns Poland, it would imply a greater success of the cultural and political assimilation process that happened IOTL for Silesia. Basically speaking, during the divided Poland period, at least the duchy of Greater Poland, quite likely the duchy of Krakow as well, would be incorporated in the centralized HRE and culturally assimilated the way it happened for the duchy of Silesia. Quite possibly, a duchy of Masovia would eventually follow their path in these conditions. Anyway it is dubious Masovia alone would be enough to ensure the survival of a Polish kingdom/nation-state down the line; it might or might not happen if Lesser Poland remains independent as well; but without Silesia and Greater Poland, a surviving Poland would be at best much lessened, and its geopolitical balance pushed east and south.

As it concerns Hungary-Croatia, its political assimilation by a centralized HRE (by dynastic means or vassallization) would be quite feasible and perhaps even likely, unless it becomes a buffer state between the HRE and whatever polity fills the Byzantine/Ottoman geopolitical niche. The likelihood of its cultural assimilation is a bit more dubious than for (western) Poland and Bohemia, although by no means unfeasible. Even in the much less favorable OTL conditions, a sizable German community developed in Transylvania, and a sizable Italian community in Dalmatia; the same kind of thing, to a greater degree, would happen here.

IMO, assimilation of Bohemia, Greater Poland, and Silesia would happen "naturally" anyway as a high-probability butterfly of a centralized HRE. Masovia would require a more serious fragmentation of Poland, some conscious effort from the HRE, or the right butterflies. Lesser Poland is a halfway case. Hungary-Croatia would require a serious degree of conscious effort from the HRE, its not being too distracted elsewhere (e.g. against France), and/or the right butterflies.

[Elfwine]

Why exactly is Poland being absorbed "natural"?

I mean yes, there was German settlement there, but that's not the same as the duchies being drawn into subordination to the Emperor.

I certainly think it's possible for a HRE which is focused on eastern expansion, in the right conditions - but it's not going to happen just because German culture is so awesome the Poles just want to be part of the HRE so as to get more of it.

[Eurofed]

Why exactly is Poland being absorbed "natural"?

I mean yes, there was German settlement there, but that's not the same as the duchies being drawn into subordination to the Emperor.

I certainly think it's possible for a HRE which is focused on eastern expansion, in the right conditions - but it's not going to happen just because German culture is so awesome the Poles just want to be part of the HRE so as to get more of it.

If you ask my opinion, with a stronger (more centralized) HRE and/or weaker (more fragmented) Poland than OTL, the highest probability outcome ("natural" in this sense) is for a bigger chunk of Poland to get culturally and politically assimilated by the Empire, by the same parallel processes that happened IOTL, only enhanced in these circumstances.

As it concerns Bohemia, Silesia, and Greater Poland, IMO butterflies would have to really go out of their way to prevent their complete absorption in the HRE, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so to speak. It would otherwise happen without need of any serious focus on eastern expansion by the Emperors ("natural" in this sense, too). Masovia would require a somewhat more serious purposeful effort by the Empire, or the right dynastic/diplomatic/military butterflies. Lesser Poland is a halfway case, it might go both ways, depending on butterflies.

Hungary and Croatia are like eastern Poland, but only rather more so. Their political assimilation is feasible, but it requires a rather serious Imperial focus on eastern expansion, and/or the right dynastic/diplomatic/military butterflies, which also need to involve whomever rules in Constantinople acting in the right way.

It is also most likely that those areas would get kinda more culturally assimilated than OTL, quite possibly in a patchwork way, as circumstances make the same processes that affected Transylvania and Dalmatia more successful.

It's not (mostly) an issue of Imperial culture being so awesome, rather of reciprocal strength. However, I may point out that a centralized HRE would inevitably be one of the most powerful and wealthy European states, and its prestige would be proportionally bigger. As things typically went in premodern European powers, power, wealth, and prestige would eventually translate into a sizable degree of cultural supremacy, as scholars and artists flock to the Imperial court, the Emperors and magnates give them patronage, and so on.

[Elfwine]

If you ask my opinion, with a stronger (more centralized) HRE and/or weaker (more fragmented) Poland than OTL, the highest probability outcome ("natural" in this sense) is for a bigger chunk of Poland to get culturally and politically assimilated by the Empire, by the same parallel processes that happened IOTL, only enhanced in these circumstances.

While I agree that a weaker/more divided Poland in a situation where the HRE is stronger than OTL might be naturally drawn towards the HRE, I do not think simply having a stronger HRE would do it - especially with the fact Imperial attention is going to be on Italy and Germany for at least as long as it took OTL Poland to reunite simply for the empire's own sake - making sure that the Imperial house is in order is more important than what the Poles do or don't do, and a stronger Empire doesn't increase German migration abroad. Now obviously the 15th century will be different, but if Poland stays divided longer than OTL, that's different than if the Empire simply is stronger than OTL.


As it concerns Bohemia, Silesia, and Greater Poland, IMO butterflies would have to really go out of their way to prevent their absorption in the HRE, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so to speak. It would otherwise happen without need of any serious focus on eastern expansion by the Emperors ("natural" in this sense, too). Masovia would require a somewhat more serious purposeful effort by the Empire, or the right dynastic/diplomatic/military butterflies. Lesser Poland is a halfway case, it might go both ways, depending on butterflies.

Bohemia is absorbed into the empire in every sense that matters already, Silesia and Greater Poland are the start.


Hungary and Croatia are like eastern Poland, but only rather more so. Their political assimilation is feasible, but it requires a rather serious Imperial focus on eastern expansion, and/or the right dynastic/diplomatic/military butterflies, which also need to involve whomever rules in Constantinople as well acting in the right way.

It is also most likely that those areas would get kinda more culturally assimilated than OTL, quite possibly in a patchwork way, as circumstances make the same processes that affected Transylvania and Dalmatia more successful.

Why so? Certainly German culture will have influence outside its borders, but that's looking at the long term effects of how Nuremburg (the closest thing to an Imperial capital - we can pick some other city but it's easiest to use that for the sake of this discussion) is a rival to Paris than how a united Empire is inevitably enticiing to nonGermans.


It's not (mostly) an issue of Imperial culture being so awesome, rather of reciprocal strength. However, I may point out that a centralized HRE would inevitably be one of the most powerful and wealthy European states, and its prestige would be proportionally bigger.

As things typically went in premodern European powers, power, wealth, and prestige would eventually translate into a sizable degree of cultural supremacy, as scholars and artists flock to the Imperial court.

And yet while French fashions and styles were enormously influential, the areas outside medieval France that turned French or even friendly to France is fairly limited. To use the OTL example of this process.

Don't get me wrong here, I think Poland in a stronger Empire scenario is entirely possible - just that you seem to be thinking that the natural process is the same as your preferred scenario, where it would would take active thwarting of destiny to keep Poland out of the HRE.

[Eurofed]

While I agree that a weaker/more divided Poland in a situation where the HRE is stronger than OTL might be naturally drawn towards the HRE, I do not think simply having a stronger HRE would do it - especially with the fact Imperial attention is going to be on Italy and Germany for at least as long as it took OTL Poland to reunite simply for the empire's own sake - making sure that the Imperial house is in order is more important than what the Poles do or don't do, and a stronger Empire doesn't increase German migration abroad. Now obviously the 15th century will be different, but if Poland stays divided longer than OTL, that's different than if the Empire simply is stronger than OTL.


Well, I easily agree that you have a point about the timescale implied. To assimilate *all* or *most* of Poland, the optimal combination of a stronger HRE and a weaker Poland might quite possibly be warranted.

However IOTL Silesia was absorbed, with less favorable condtions than these, and not much of a focused effort by the decentralized HRE that remained mostly focused on its domestic issues.

So I am driven to think that even with just one of these divergencies, a stronger HRE or a weaker Poland, the most likely consequence would be an Imperial-Polish border pushed somewhat eastward, and at least one more of the Polish duchies being absorbed. For geopolitical reasons, I assume this would most likely be Greater Poland, but it might admittably be Lesser Poland instead.

Aside Note: in the very long term (a few centuries), I do assume a stronger HRE, being a wealthier, more politically stable state, would thus experience a greater population growth, and hence have a greater potential pool for migration abroad. Admittedly, this might not make much of a difference in the 13th-14th century.

By the 15th century and later, however, there might easily be more Imperial would-be settlers around. Of course, they might quite possibly go to Imperial colonies in the Americas, instead of Poland and Hungary-Croatia (and/or conquered North Africa, for that matter).


Why so? Certainly German culture will have influence outside its borders, but that's looking at the long term effects of how Nuremburg (the closest thing to an Imperial capital - we can pick some other city but it's easiest to use that for the sake of this discussion) is a rival to Paris than how a united Empire is inevitably enticiing to nonGermans.


True, but this is not the point. A stronger HRE may find easier to drive Hungary to vassaldom or dynastic union as it concerns the political field. Say what happened IOTL, but centuries earlier, and with the whole Empire being much more able than the German Hasburg principality to keep Hungary bound in lasting political union.

As it concerns the demographic/cultural field, for the reasons given above, it may easily happen that the OTL German-Italian migration patterns in Hungary-Croatia get somewhat enhanced. Admittedly, this may easily result in those areas becoming even more of a demographic patchwork than OTL, rather than full or even prevailing Imperial cultural assimilation.


And yet while French fashions and styles were enormously influential, the areas outside medieval France that turned French or even friendly to France is fairly limited. To use the OTL example of this process.


True, but this was an aside in the first place. Basically, I was saying that, yes, ITTL we may expect Imperial culture to be pretty awesome in the European landscape, an equivalent of Renaissance Italy and 17th century France, quite likely a combination of both. It is agreed this would have negligible effects on the HRE being a more successful conqueror or placing more of its settlers in foreign lands.


Don't get me wrong here, I think Poland in a stronger Empire scenario is entirely possible - just that you seem to be thinking that the natural process is the same as your preferred scenario, where it would would take active thwarting of destiny to keep Poland out of the HRE.

Let's put it this way:

- with a stronger HRE OR a weaker Poland, IMO it would take active thwarting of destiny to make the Imperial border any worse than the 1914 one, and the most likely outcome is the 1793 Polish-Prussian one.

- with a stronger HRE AND a weaker Poland, IMO it would take active thwarting of destiny to make the Imperial border any worse than the 1793 Polish-Prussian one, and the most likely outcome is the Narew-Vistula one.

- anything better than this is quite liable to various kinds of butterflies.

[Fredrick II Barbarossa]

Wait why are all of you ignoring Sigismund Luxemborg he came close right.

[kasumigenx]

Wait why are all of you ignoring Sigismund Luxemborg he came close right.
If you want Sigismund to succeed have Elisabeth of Bosnia married to the son of Dusan and have Louis of Hungary die childless.

[Elfwine]

Well, I easily agree that you have a point about the timescale implied. To assimilate *all* or *most* of Poland, the optimal combination of a stronger HRE and a weaker Poland might quite possibly be warranted.

However IOTL Silesia was absorbed, with less favorable condtions than these, and not much of a focused effort by the decentralized HRE that remained mostly focused on its domestic issues.

But that was by Bohemia, not the HRE on the whole, and Bohemia absorbing more of Poland would be difficult - it had its own issues and other ambitions.


So I am driven to think that even with just one of these divergencies, a stronger HRE or a weaker Poland, the most likely consequence would be an Imperial-Polish border pushed somewhat eastward, and at least one more of the Polish duchies being absorbed. For geopolitical reasons, I assume this would most likely be Greater Poland, but it might admittably be Lesser Poland instead.

A stronger HRE might lead to it. A weaker Poland, alone, no. Although it depends on what that means exactly.


Aside Note: in the very long term (a few centuries), I do assume a stronger HRE, being a wealthier, more politically stable state, would thus experience a greater population growth, and hence have a greater potential pool for migration abroad. Admittedly, this might not make much of a difference in the 13th-14th century.

This is probably true (or at least feasible), but by that point, Poland has probably reunited, and a united Kingdom of Poland being absorbed would be more difficult than the individual duchies. Not impossible - but not just a natural consequence of German migration and Imperial ambitions.


By the 15th century and later, however, there might easily be more Imperial would-be settlers around. Of course, they might quite possibly go to Imperial colonies in the Americas, instead of Poland and Hungary-Croatia (and/or conquered North Africa, for that matter).


Yeah. Or travel within the Reich - which is not facing much danger of overpopulation.


True, but this is not the point. A stronger HRE may find easier to drive Hungary to vassaldom or dynastic union as it concerns the political field. Say what happened IOTL, but centuries earlier, and with the whole Empire being much more able than the German Hasburg principality to keep Hungary bound in lasting political union.

That took certain things that may or may not happen TTL (could certainly happen, but we can't assume a personal union happens to begin with as a given) to get started, however.

It's a legitimate scenario, and I fully support the plausibility - just that it might well not happen even if the Empire could do it, just as there's no personal union between the Empire and England.


As it concerns the demographic/cultural field, for the reasons given above, it may easily happen that the OTL German-Italian migration patterns in Hungary-Croatia get somewhat enhanced. Admittedly, this may easily result in those areas becoming even more of a demographic patchwork than OTL, rather than full or even prevailing Imperial cultural assimilation.


Possible, this is an area I know less on than the influence in the north (Poland and the Baltic).


True, but this was an aside in the first place. Basically, I was saying that, yes, ITTL we may expect Imperial culture to be pretty awesome in the European landscape, an equivalent of Renaissance Italy and 17th century France, quite likely a combination of both. It is agreed this would have negligible effects on the HRE being a more successful conqueror or placing more of its settlers in foreign lands.


Yeah. It's certainly a powerful influence on Mitteleuropa, but this may or may not be the same as political influence of the sort discussed. The possibilities need further exploring to answer that (further than simply "The empire is the empire", that is).


Let's put it this way:

- with a stronger HRE OR a weaker Poland, IMO it would take active thwarting of destiny to make the Imperial border any worse than the 1914 one, and the most likely outcome is the 1793 Polish-Prussian one.


I disagree. This is assuming the HRE pushes east, or doesn't have to bother to push east, to make it happen.


- with a stronger HRE AND a weaker Poland, IMO it would take active thwarting of destiny to make the Imperial border any worse than the 1793 Polish-Prussian one, and the most likely outcome is the Narew-Vistula one.


See above complaint.


- anything better than this is quite liable to various kinds of butterflies.

We do agree completely on this.

[Eurofed]

But that was by Bohemia, not the HRE on the whole, and Bohemia absorbing more of Poland would be difficult - it had its own issues and other ambitions.


True, but ITTL it may also be the HRE as a whole. Even if it happens in its "formative period", when the vast majority of ist energies need to be focused on Germany and Italy, IOTL it didn't take Bohemia that many energies to grab Silesia.


A stronger HRE might lead to it. A weaker Poland, alone, no. Although it depends on what that means exactly.


You may have a point here. :)


This is probably true (or at least feasible), but by that point, Poland has probably reunited, and a united Kingdom of Poland being absorbed would be more difficult than the individual duchies. Not impossible - but not just a natural consequence of German migration and Imperial ambitions.


Of course (it was an aside though). Absorption of Poland as a whole, yes, although even a united Kingdom of Poland would have rather serious trouble defending its integrity against an Empire any interested in eastern expansion. Unless it succeeds in uniting Poland, Lithuania, and Hungary, and/or reap very strong allies, it shall always be quite the underdog.


Yeah. Or travel within the Reich - which is not facing much danger of overpopulation.


Well, again this is an aside issue that spans several centuries. But I make a comparison with OTL Early Modern European powers, which never seemed to have any trouble raising up sizable numbers of settlers for the colonies, despite not technically facing overpopulation.


That took certain things that may or may not happen TTL (could certainly happen, but we can't assume a personal union happens to begin with as a given) to get started, however.

It's a legitimate scenario, and I fully support the plausibility - just that it might well not happen even if the Empire could do it, just as there's no personal union between the Empire and England.


True. Although the prestige of the Empire is going to be very high, eclipsing even OTL Habsburg as their height, so the Emperors should be able to reap several favourable marriages. Therefore a personal union or two somewhere, down the line, is a reasonable expectation. Of course, no guarantee it shall be Hungary, Although it might be different if they actively focus their marriage policy on a country (the way the Iberic states pursued their dynastic union).


I disagree. This is assuming the HRE pushes east, or doesn't have to bother to push east, to make it happen.

See above complaint.


I have to disagree with your disagreement. Given the circumstances, it would mean the Empire takes even less interest in/makes even less of an effort for eastern expansion than OTL, effectively almost none at all.

Honestly I cannot see how such a dire neglect would be a moderately-probable butterfly, so I'd call it "destiny thwarting".

The likely clash with France to restore the Carolingian empire, colonial development, and trade/expansionist concerns in the Med cannot absorb all their energies and interest that much, again given the comparison with OTL powers.

With a much stronger HRE, the survival of a lessened Poland (at least on its western side) is a reasonable non-handpicked butterfly. Its keeping anything much better than the 1914 or 1793 western border, not really.

It might happen, but for it to happen, I'd expect the TL author to admit he's handpicking Pole-friendly butterflies for story purposes (not that there is anything bad about it).

[Elfwine]

True, but ITTL it may also be the HRE as a whole. Even if it happens in its "formative period", when the vast majority of ist energies need to be focused on Germany and Italy, IOTL it didn't take Bohemia that many energies to grab Silesia.

It may be - but it may also not be. And of course, someone - let's call him Frederick III - securing it does not mean it lasts, anymore than Henry II and Scotland did (picked as something with an ending as something more appropriate to a HRE success story than how Edward II blew his father's gains)



Of course (it was an aside though). Absorption of Poland as a whole, yes, although even a united Kingdom of Poland would have rather serious trouble defending its integrity against an Empire any interested in eastern expansion. Unless it succeeds in uniting Poland, Lithuania, and Hungary, and/or reap very strong allies, it shall always be quite the underdog.
Underdog, but not necessarily a mere snack. The Empire is large in territory, but in population is comparable to France, and that's measuring from Holstein to Tuscany.

Nevertheless, a HRE determined to do it, and in a position to not be more troubled within than without, has a healthy chance of success here, although probably not enough to Germanize the place (Will German culture be influential? Yes. Crushingly dominant? No.)


Well, again this is an aside issue that spans several centuries. But I make a comparison with OTL Early Modern European powers, which never seemed to have any trouble raising up sizable numbers of settlers for the colonies, despite not technically facing overpopulation.
Sizable is relative, though. All the breeding and immigration to, for instance, the Thirteen American Colonies, leads to at most about two million whites in something over a century and a half.

Obviously the Reich than Great Britain, but it bears noting.


True. Although the prestige of the Empire is going to be very high, eclipsing even OTL Habsburg as their height, so the Emperors should be able to reap several favourable marriages. Therefore a personal union or two somewhere, down the line, is a reasonable expectation. Of course, no guarantee it shall be Hungary, Although it might be different if they actively focus their marriage policy on a country (the way the Iberic states pursued their dynastic union).
"Favorable marriage" and "personal union" are not the same thing, though. No matter how vigorously the Staufen try to tie their house and the House of Arpad together, that doesn't guarantee the right combination to get one man as the heir to both thrones. The Habsburgs got lucky, luck is not to be relied on here - it's possible, but we shouldn't assume it's probable.


I have to disagree with your disagreement. Given the circumstances, it would mean the Empire takes even less interest in/makes even less of an effort for eastern expansion than OTL, effectively almost none at all.
And this is imminently reasonable for an empire whose main rival and main interests are to the west, and who has much more to gain in Burgundy and Champagne and Flanders than the Baltic.


Honestly I cannot see how such a dire neglect would be a moderately-probable butterfly, so I'd call it "destiny thwarting".

The likely clash with France to restore the Carolingian empire, colonial development, and trade/expansionist concerns in the Med cannot absorb all their energies and interest that much, again given the comparison with OTL powers. As stated again below for emphasis, France is a peer. Which means that yes, it can. Easily.

Not to mention that there's nothing "dire" about the Empire focusing on the West. I know that you love Germany-absorbs-Poland, but that doesn't make it something that the Emperors will want when the Carolingian Empire Must Be Rebuilt thing draws them to avoid wars with Poland or Hungary so as to not have to divide their efforts and energies.


With a much stronger HRE, the survival of a lessened Poland (at least on its western side) is a reasonable non-handpicked butterfly. Its keeping anything much better than the 1914 or 1793 western border, not really.
A stronger HRE does not automatically mean "A HRE pushing East". Poland got gobbled OTL in circumstances that were a definite Pole-screw, with Prussia and Austria being decidedly eastern German powers without the ability to push west like a united HRE could feasibly attempt.

If it is pushing east, then yes - but the idea that the HRE is going to be looking to annex Poland makes less sense than just about any other course that will inspire Imperial interest and energies - especially when the war with France is a war with a peer, not a less power, for the majority of the period we're looking at (1300-1800 or so).


It might happen, but for it to happen, I'd expect the TL author to admit he's handpicking Pole-friendly butterflies for story purposes (not that there is anything bad about it).Not at all. The Empire is going to be looking westward, not eastward. Why is it going to try to slice off pieces of Poland just to fulfill the Teutonophile desire of some writers to eliminate Slavdom?

I acknowledge I stated that (underlined) about six different ways, but its something that seems to be ignored in your arguments in favor of the idea that the HRE will naturally behave towards the east as OTL Prussia did.

That I think is the area we're in disagreement on - will the HRE spend the energies and attention necessary for a permanently annexed/vassalized Poland?

It certainly can - but that doesn't mean there will be the interest in doing so.

[Eurofed]

It may be - but it may also not be. And of course, someone - let's call him Frederick III - securing it does not mean it lasts, anymore than Henry II and Scotland did (picked as something with an ending as something more appropriate to a HRE success story than how Edward II blew his father's gains).


Theoretically true, but in practice the power differential is more skewed in favor of the Empire than for England. This makes easier to make it last.


Underdog, but not necessarily a mere snack. The Empire is large in territory, but in population is comparable to France, and that's measuring from Holstein to Tuscany.


Well, I necessarily measure from Holstein to Sicily, at least with a Staufen Empire, but it does not make than much of a difference.

A united Poland would be an underdog, not necessarily a mere snack (a disunited Poland is a different matter) but on its own (i.e. without unions with Lithuania and/or Hungary) shall always in all likelihood be among the weakest states on the Empire's borders, in comparison to the HRE, similar to Denmark without the Kalmar Union.

This bears weight as it concerns the choice of expansion targets, albeit secondary/subsidiary ones (we may agree that the West, and the colonies past a point, shall be the main ones).


Nevertheless, a HRE determined to do it, and in a position to not be more troubled within than without, has a healthy chance of success here, although probably not enough to Germanize the place (Will German culture be influential? Yes. Crushingly dominant? No.)


This depends on which areas we look at, though: I may agree on the lack of overwhelming Germanization in Masovia and maybe Lesser Poland too, no matter what happens in the political field between the Empire and Poland, but I also see Silesia, Greater Poland, and Prussia thoroughly Germanized.


Sizable is relative, though. All the breeding and immigration to, for instance, the Thirteen American Colonies, leads to at most about two million whites in something over a century and a half.

Obviously the Reich than Great Britain, but it bears noting.


Theoretically speaking, given the period population densities, though, it's enough to Imperialize/colonize a fairly big chunk of the world. I may easily see the HRE creating a colonial empire as big as the British or Iberian ones.


"Favorable marriage" and "personal union" are not the same thing, though. No matter how vigorously the Staufen try to tie their house and the House of Arpad together, that doesn't guarantee the right combination to get one man as the heir to both thrones. The Habsburgs got lucky, luck is not to be relied on here - it's possible, but we shouldn't assume it's probable.


True, there is no guarantee that it happens - for any specific target as Hungary anyway. I daresay that given the circumstances, it is to be expected they get lucky that way, once or twice, somewhere.


And this is imminently reasonable for an empire whose main rival and main interests are to the west, and who has much more to gain in Burgundy and Champagne and Flanders than the Baltic.


Main interest does not mean all the energies, efforts, and interests of the Empire have to be exclusively fixaetd on France, even if it likely becomes the main concern. This still leaves plenty of room for secondary and subsidiary ones, especially when France proves to be not so easy. If one looks at the foreign policy of OTL European powers, it was never that one-sided. And if the Baltic is not so valuable as French land, it is still valuable enough, and far easier to pick, even with leftover resources.


As stated again below for emphasis, France is a peer. Which means that yes, it can. Easily.


But no OTL rival power of France ever adopted such a one-sided foreign policy. Not England, not Spain, not Austria. It becomes a challenge to see why the Empire should act differently, and neglect all other theaters, for a monomaniacal fixation on Paris.


Not to mention that there's nothing "dire" about the Empire focusing on the West. I know that you love Germany-absorbs-Poland, but that doesn't make it something that the Emperors will want when the Carolingian Empire Must Be Rebuilt thing draws them to avoid wars with Poland or Hungary so as to not have to divide their efforts and energies.


A focus is different from a fanatical fixation, though. I simply cannot see the Empire remaining spellbound on conquest of France, in all likelihood a complex and frustrating task, for more than half a millennium, to the continued utter neglect of other potential, and much easier targets. A great power's foreign policy is typically much more multifaceted than that, esp. when it does not face an existential situation.


A stronger HRE does not automatically mean "A HRE pushing East". Poland got gobbled OTL in circumstances that were a definite Pole-screw, with Prussia and Austria being decidedly eastern German powers without the ability to push west like a united HRE could feasibly attempt.


I may point out a) that I'm simply arguing for the near-inevitability of pre-WWII political/ethnic borders of Poland being pushed somewhat eastward than OTL, and its complete absorption is a different case, which I acknowledge it may or may not happen b) OTL Prussia and Austria had all kinds of concerns of their own with France, but that certainly didn't stop them from caring about the East, too.


If it is pushing east, then yes - but the idea that the HRE is going to be looking to annex Poland makes less sense than just about any other course that will inspire Imperial interest and energies - especially when the war with France is a war with a peer, not a less power, for the majority of the period we're looking at (1300-1800 or so).


So ? France was a peer for its OTL rivals, too, and they acted quite differently.

While France may be the juicest prize for the Empire, it shall also be the toughest one to pick, so it makes sense that from time to time, it shifts to partially focus on different, easier targets, valuable in their own way, if less so.

[Snake Featherston]

If you ask my opinion, with a stronger (more centralized) HRE and/or weaker (more fragmented) Poland than OTL, the highest probability outcome ("natural" in this sense) is for a bigger chunk of Poland to get culturally and politically assimilated by the Empire, by the same parallel processes that happened IOTL, only enhanced in these circumstances.

As it concerns Bohemia, Silesia, and Greater Poland, IMO butterflies would have to really go out of their way to prevent their complete absorption in the HRE, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, so to speak. It would otherwise happen without need of any serious focus on eastern expansion by the Emperors ("natural" in this sense, too). Masovia would require a somewhat more serious purposeful effort by the Empire, or the right dynastic/diplomatic/military butterflies. Lesser Poland is a halfway case, it might go both ways, depending on butterflies.

Hungary and Croatia are like eastern Poland, but only rather more so. Their political assimilation is feasible, but it requires a rather serious Imperial focus on eastern expansion, and/or the right dynastic/diplomatic/military butterflies, which also need to involve whomever rules in Constantinople acting in the right way.

It is also most likely that those areas would get kinda more culturally assimilated than OTL, quite possibly in a patchwork way, as circumstances make the same processes that affected Transylvania and Dalmatia more successful.

It's not (mostly) an issue of Imperial culture being so awesome, rather of reciprocal strength. However, I may point out that a centralized HRE would inevitably be one of the most powerful and wealthy European states, and its prestige would be proportionally bigger. As things typically went in premodern European powers, power, wealth, and prestige would eventually translate into a sizable degree of cultural supremacy, as scholars and artists flock to the Imperial court, the Emperors and magnates give them patronage, and so on.

So why did the partitions fail to erase Polish cultural identity given the three states that partitioned it were all obviously stronger than Poland to start with?

[Snake Featherston]

This was quite feasible at some degree. The most likely and "natural" way to do so would require a successful centralization of the HRE under the Ottonians or Staufen (which by the way, would all but surely ensure the cultural assimilation of Bohemia as well), and for Poland, a deeper, longer-lasting fragmentation of the Polish kingdom in duchies.

As it concerns Poland, it would imply a greater success of the cultural and political assimilation process that happened IOTL for Silesia. Basically speaking, during the divided Poland period, at least the duchy of Greater Poland, quite likely the duchy of Krakow as well, would be incorporated in the centralized HRE and culturally assimilated the way it happened for the duchy of Silesia. Quite possibly, a duchy of Masovia would eventually follow their path in these conditions. Anyway it is dubious Masovia alone would be enough to ensure the survival of a Polish kingdom/nation-state down the line; it might or might not happen if Lesser Poland remains independent as well; but without Silesia and Greater Poland, a surviving Poland would be at best much lessened, and its geopolitical balance pushed east and south.

As it concerns Hungary-Croatia, its political assimilation by a centralized HRE (by dynastic means or vassallization) would be quite feasible and perhaps even likely, unless it becomes a buffer state between the HRE and whatever polity fills the Byzantine/Ottoman geopolitical niche. The likelihood of its cultural assimilation is a bit more dubious than for (western) Poland and Bohemia, although by no means unfeasible. Even in the much less favorable OTL conditions, a sizable German community developed in Transylvania, and a sizable Italian community in Dalmatia; the same kind of thing, to a greater degree, would happen here.

IMO, assimilation of Bohemia, Greater Poland, and Silesia would happen "naturally" anyway as a high-probability butterfly of a centralized HRE. Masovia would require a more serious fragmentation of Poland, some conscious effort from the HRE, or the right butterflies. Lesser Poland is a halfway case. Hungary-Croatia would require a serious degree of conscious effort from the HRE, its not being too distracted elsewhere (e.g. against France), and/or the right butterflies.

So when centralized Austria, Prussia, and Russia all partitioned Poland, this did not happen or affect any of them because of what? What does the HRE have to offer that Imperial Russia, already the largest state in terms of European empires at the time Catherine II was partitioning Poland, does not? What does it have to offer, for that matter, that both Austria and Prussia did not?

[kasumigenx]

Perhaps Poland will be a part of HRE if it lost Lesser Poland in a battle against Lev I of Galicia.

[Ultima Ratio]

Hey, I'm bumping this, I hope you guys don't mind.

I don't know much about Poland, but with Hungary it is very much plausible, with an earlier POD. I'm thinking of two things.

Either Stephen I receives his crown not from the Pope himself, but the Emperor, with papal blessing. With the crown, he gains HRE support for his war against Hungarian pagans, but is only an elector count and not a true king. For this, Koppány, his uncle and leader of pagan Magyars should do much better to warrant Western aid.

The other idea is Hungarians refusing to convert after the defeats and get invaded by HRE. It will possibly be a long and bloody war, but if the Germans manage to subdue and convert them, the lands may be incorporated into the HRE. Germanized population, much like the Prussians, ruled by perhaps some crown prince or any Hungarian noble that converted early on and joined the Germans in the war.

This is my first post, I hope it's not entirely ASB.

[Kulkasha]

This is my first post, I hope it's not entirely ASB.
It's not, thanks for the illumination! There was, in fact, a precedent for German invasion into the Magyar Plain, as the Franks attempted for nearly a century to subdue the Moravians and the Avars, IIRC. So it's certainly not logistically impossible.

[Ultima Ratio]

It's not, thanks for the illumination! There was, in fact, a precedent for German invasion into the Magyar Plain, as the Franks attempted for nearly a century to subdue the Moravians and the Avars, IIRC. So it's certainly not logistically impossible.

Especially if part of the local population is willing to convert and Germanize. I can totally see it as a kind of earlier Prussia. Seeing that IOTL the region was converted in a very short time, we can assume that it could be incorporated into the HRE just as fast. The question is: how does this affect the Mongol invasion?

[Elfwine]

Especially if part of the local population is willing to convert and Germanize. I can totally see it as a kind of earlier Prussia. Seeing that IOTL the region was converted in a very short time, we can assume that it could be incorporated into the HRE just as fast. The question is: how does this affect the Mongol invasion?

Giant killer butterflies.

Also, Prussia was not a matter of "willing to convert and Germanize", it was a matter of being forced to convert and Germanize.

Plus, Hungary is considerably larger than Prussia.

[Ultima Ratio]

Giant killer butterflies.

Also, Prussia was not a matter of "willing to convert and Germanize", it was a matter of being forced to convert and Germanize.

Plus, Hungary is considerably larger than Prussia.

Yes, but since it is also more willing, it may be possible to integrate it to the HRE in a relatively short time.

What I'm thinking is if the Mongol invasion could be repelled? IOTL the Mongols had trouble taking walled cities and fortresses, of which Hungary did not have too much. In fact, it was the Mongol invasion that prompted the building of these, as all nobles were required to build fortifications in exchange for land, should the Mongols return. They did return, and were soundly beaten by a more coherent force. The Mongols also had a hard time fighting heavy cavalry and crossbows, they suffered heavy casualties in the battle of Mohi. The fact that they eventually won such a devastating victory is mostly due to horrible Hungarian leadership and small number of knights. So what if there is a large number of German knights and heavy crossbows present at the battle, with a leader who knows what he is doing? The site of battle favored Western armies, so a German Hungary is likely to make a stand here as well.

Maybe the Verecke pass would also be more heavily fortified than IOTL, where the Mongols easily broke through. So, what if they suffer heavy casualties at Verecke, and are weakened when they reach Mohi, where a considerably large force is waiting for them?

Even if the Germans lose, the more fortified cities means that the Mongols do less damage when rampaging through the country than IOTL. The slaughtered population could be replaced by German settler, just like IOTL, only in larger numbers. With the fear of the return of the Mongols, the region might as well be the most militarized part of the Empire, which could prove useful once the Ottomans start rolling in.

I could even see a Germanized Árpád line taking the place of the Habsburgs in history, with a major battle against the Turks fought at Buda and not Vienna.

Thoughts?

ps: I am quite intrigued by this idea, do you guys think I should open a ne discussion thread about this specific idea?

[Elfwine]

Yes, but since it is also more willing, it may be possible to integrate it to the HRE in a relatively short time.


Why is it more willing, though?


What I'm thinking is if the Mongol invasion could be repelled? IOTL the Mongols had trouble taking walled cities and fortresses, of which Hungary did not have too much. In fact, it was the Mongol invasion that prompted the building of these, as all nobles were required to build fortifications in exchange for land, should the Mongols return. They did return, and were soundly beaten by a more coherent force. The Mongols also had a hard time fighting heavy cavalry and crossbows, they suffered heavy casualties in the battle of Mohi. The fact that they eventually won such a devastating victory is mostly due to horrible Hungarian leadership and small number of knights. So what if there is a large number of German knights and heavy crossbows present at the battle, with a leader who knows what he is doing? The site of battle favored Western armies, so a German Hungary is likely to make a stand here as well.

Maybe the Verecke pass would also be more heavily fortified than IOTL, where the Mongols easily broke through. So, what if they suffer heavy casualties at Verecke, and are weakened when they reach Mohi, where a considerably large force is waiting for them?

Even if the Germans lose, the more fortified cities means that the Mongols do less damage when rampaging through the country than IOTL. The slaughtered population could be replaced by German settler, just like IOTL, only in larger numbers. With the fear of the return of the Mongols, the region might as well be the most militarized part of the Empire, which could prove useful once the Ottomans start rolling in.

I could even see a Germanized Árpád line taking the place of the Habsburgs in history, with a major battle against the Turks fought at Buda and not Vienna.

Thoughts?

ps: I am quite intrigued by this idea, do you guys think I should open a ne discussion thread about this specific idea?


I think so. "Germanized Hungary" whether tied to the HRE or having essentially gone its own way in two hundred plus years is worth exploring, although I think you overestimate how easy that kind of thing would be.

[Ultima Ratio]

Why is it more willing, though?

I'm just assuming, since the conversion went down pretty fast IOTL.



I think so. "Germanized Hungary" whether tied to the HRE or having essentially gone its own way in two hundred plus years is worth exploring, although I think you overestimate how easy that kind of thing would be.
I am in no way expert on the subject, so perhaps some people more well versed could share their ideas.

[Elfwine]

I'm just assuming, since the conversion went down pretty fast IOTL.


Well, conversion is one thing, Germanicization is more difficult (although it being drawn into the German sphere wouldn't be impossible with strong emperors and other reasons to look west).


I am in no way expert on the subject, so perhaps some people more well versed could share their ideas.

The main thing I can think of is that generally you see this kind of process taking some time - see Silesia more than Prussia as an example of a peaceful transition to "Germanized".