How would the USA lose WWII?

[Googolbyte]

It has been firmly established that because of the US' massive economy, it would have been impossible for the Axis powers to defeat the US in World War 2.

So as I see it the only POD that could cause the US to lose WWII is one that's late enough that they enter the war but early enough to cripple their economy.

My proposition (which hopefully isn't too ASB) would be for Iminami (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami) to strike either (or both) of the American coastlines, originating from La Palma, Canary Islands or Kohala mountain, Hawaii. I think if they occur at the beginning of WWII they'd do enough damage to leave the US susceptible to invasion. Although I'm unsure of the plausibility of this scenario as I don't know what would be required to trigger the landslides that cause Iminami.

What do you think of my proposition? Do you think there are any other possible ways to cripple the US economy, I think the POD would have to be post WWI to ensure WWII happens and the US enters it.

[Serenissima]

Depends how you define 'lose'. If there's still a will to fight, then the war will just take longer regardless of ASB tsunamis somehow occurring on both coasts (which would cause butterflies anyway).

Of course, you might be able to find a way for the US to either back down from entering the war in the first place or quit the war while they're involved with a government change, somehow.

[Googolbyte]

Depends how you define 'lose'. If there's still a will to fight, then the war will just take longer regardless of ASB tsunamis somehow occurring on both coasts (which would cause butterflies anyway).

Of course, you might be able to find a way for the US to either back down from entering the war in the first place or quit the war while they're involved with a government change, somehow.

So you think its 100% impossible for the US to lose (any form of invasion/surrender) WWII without some ASB.

I'm not sure if the Iminami are ASB, they might be trigger-able by sufficient explosives. But even if they are ASB I'm sure someone else can come up with a better non-ASB way.

[Serenissima]

Well, it's more about will to fight. Germany hasn't got the slightest chance of invading (they couldn't even cross 20 miles of English Channel, how are they going to do thousands of miles of Atlantic) and Japan hasn't got the population or resources to actively conquer the United States even if they somehow manage landings. If the will to fight is present, the USA isn't going to lose - but if their will to fight can be broken, that's a different story.

Of course, I suppose we could bring the idea of fictional German or Japanese WMDs into it, but that might just cause Allied retaliation. It does also depend on what you mean by 'lose' - if you hand-wave it so that the ASBs pick up German soldiers and carry them across the English Channel, then start carrying crates of supplies and barrels of fuel in their little paws, then one might see a situation where the Allies 'lose' by coming to a negotiated settlement. But that comes down to 'will to fight' again, and whether a stalemate where neither side can defeat the other counts as a loss.

[Riain]

Probably the best scenario the Axis could hope for against the US would be containment. About the only territory the Axis could take would be the possesion in the western Pacific, and the resulting US/Axis cold war would be fought out in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

[The Red]

Depends how back your PoD can go, Germany and/or Japan really need to have nukes and Anthrax in significant quantities and a reliable delivery system, which bascially requires a pre-WW1 PoD at the very latest.

[Julian]

And with a POD like that world politics will have changed dramatically.

[Googolbyte]

Depends how back your PoD can go, Germany and/or Japan really need to have nukes and Anthrax in significant quantities and a reliable delivery system, which bascially requires a pre-WW1 PoD at the very latest.

Well if WWII Germany wasn't so racist then less nuclear scientists would flee to the US delaying the development of nukes. The nukes barely made it into WWII as it is, the European war had ended by the time of their use. Also If someone somehow invaded the US, then there'd be little chance of nuking, although that is a big if.

[The Red]

Well if WWII Germany wasn't so racist then less nuclear scientists would flee to the US delaying the development of nukes.

Many of them would still refuse to work for a fascist government but that's beside the point. Nazi Germany had skilled nuclear physicists at it's disposal, Werner Heisenburg and Kurt Diebner for example what they lacked was the ability, or eve the will to fund a Manhattan Project style nuclear program.

Also If someone somehow invaded the US, then there'd be little chance of nuking, although that is a big if.

It's not a big if, it's chances of success are ASB, an Axis boot even landing on a beach is very unlikely.

[RamscoopRaider]

It's not a big if, it's chances of success are ASB, an Axis boot even landing on a beach is very unlikely.
That actually happened

Of course there is a difference between three spys in a rubber raft launched from a sub and multiple divisions and thousands of tons of supplies a day that they will need

[The Red]

That actually happened

Of course there is a difference between three spys in a rubber raft launched from a sub and multiple divisions and thousands of tons of supplies a day that they will need

Yeah, and the Lookout Air Raid was a strategic bombing offensive. :p

[Googolbyte]

Many of them would still refuse to work for a fascist government but that's beside the point. Nazi Germany had skilled nuclear physicists at it's disposal, Werner Heisenburg and Kurt Diebner for example what they lacked was the ability, or eve the will to fund a Manhattan Project style nuclear program.



It's not a big if, it's chances of success are ASB, an Axis boot even landing on a beach is very unlikely.

I wasn't implying the Nazi could ever have a nuke, just that it would be possible to slow down the US enough that they don't have a nuke in time for the end of WWII. I know that on its own wouldn't mean US loses but it is a step in the right direction.

Also technically Axis did set foot on American soil in the Aleutian Islands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleutian_Islands_Campaign)

Wouldn't making the Great Depression worse and having it arrive later put the US in a worse position for WWII? Although I don't what POD could cause this.

[Julian]

You do know that the Great depression was a GLOBAL DEPRESSION that affected everyone, right? Making it worse would hurt other states too.

[MUC]

Yellowstone eruption?

[RamscoopRaider]

Yellowstone eruption?
That would screw everybody, the US just gets screwed worse, 10-1000 year Ice Age FTW

[Googolbyte]

You do know that the Great depression was a GLOBAL DEPRESSION that affected everyone, right? Making it worse would hurt other states too.

I know but it didn't treat all countries equally, and some countries recovered from it better than others, though I don't know that much about the great depression.

[LeoXiao]

The prevailing notion on these seems to be that once the Japanese do ANYTHING against the Western powers in the Pacific, it'll end in firebombs and nukes on their home islands. I agree that objectively speaking this is true, since the US has so much industrial mass. However, I never understood why every scenario has to come to total war; why can't the US decide that the fight isn't worth it after a bad start?

[Peg Leg Pom]

How could the US lose?
Germany gets the Amerika Bomber in service and developes the Atom Bomb. I can't see them staying in the war with East Coast cities being nuked.

[The Red]

Also technically Axis did set foot on American soil in the Aleutian Islands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleutian_Islands_Campaign)

The Germans occupied the Channel Islands, successfully invading undefended and irrelevant islands does not an invasion make as I'm sure you'll understand.


Wouldn't making the Great Depression worse and having it arrive later put the US in a worse position for WWII? Although I don't what POD could cause this.

The Depression was global however, by delaying it you also delay Hitler.

[BlondieBC]

The prevailing notion on these seems to be that once the Japanese do ANYTHING against the Western powers in the Pacific, it'll end in firebombs and nukes on their home islands. I agree that objectively speaking this is true, since the US has so much industrial mass. However, I never understood why every scenario has to come to total war; why can't the US decide that the fight isn't worth it after a bad start?

I think it is because of USA racism (yellow peril) and the surprise attack. If say FDR had provoke an war with Japan over say Indochina, where the USA fired the first shot, and the war was going badly like OTL, then sure, the USA might accept peace. I can even see FDR losing re election or the congress flipping to Republicans. But with the other guys attacking first, the USA tends to do a 9/11 type overkill. Just our culture.

And there was a limited war, with Japan in China. If Japan does not escalate and can find oil (bit ASB), then yes the USA could get tired, just like we did in Vietnam or Iraq.

[Googolbyte]

How could the US lose?
Germany gets the Amerika Bomber in service and developes the Atom Bomb. I can't see them staying in the war with East Coast cities being nuked.

Even if the nazis got nukes, which I doubt is possible, I still don't think the US would surrender even having been nuked.

Would America turning Communist be possible?

Then it'd be Europe(including Germany)+Japan v Russia+America+China or is that better odds for the US.

[Googolbyte]

The Germans occupied the Channel Islands, successfully invading undefended and irrelevant islands does not an invasion make as I'm sure you'll understand.



The Depression was global however, by delaying it you also delay Hitler.

By no means do I think that counts as an invasion.

I think delaying Hitler might be useful towards US lose as it'd give Japan more time. Also if the US got involved earlier they might attrite more loses and have been less ready for the fight against Japan.

Also what of the possibility of Russia fighting against the US in WWII?

[Michel Van]

Yellowstone eruption?

This..
or the Axis powers never declare War on the USA !

because one thing the axis power learn the hard way: don't mess with the Americans

good examples is the Grumman F6F Hellcat, it look like his predecessor F4F Wildcat.
But the Zero pilots were confront with a Monster of Fighter plane
The Hellcat destroying 5271 aircraft, also was the F6F used for attack on ground-targets or ships

The German Wehrmacht think that US troops were similar to European forces they vanquish.
Only to be confronted with men armed to the teeth with Guns, Machine-guns and pistols
with experienced in weapon use since there childhood or there were member of the maffia
like Charles E. Kelly aka "The One Man Army" He killed 37 SS-soldier single-handed while his unit withdrawal with wounded mens

the Moment were Japan attack Pearl Habor and Adolf Hitler declare war to USA, they lost the War...

[Julian]

The US WILL be at war with Japan and Germany by 1943. Public opinion was clearly becoming pro-intervention by mid 1940.

[The Red]

I think delaying Hitler might be useful towards US lose as it'd give Japan more time. Also if the US got involved earlier they might attrite more loses and have been less ready for the fight against Japan.

Japan had an economy the size of Iatly, most of their success was dependent on Germany being in the war.



Also what of the possibility of Russia fighting against the US in WWII?

Not as implausible as you might think, combine that with Yellowstone and you have your scenario!

[Googolbyte]

Japan had an economy the size of Iatly, most of their success was dependent on Germany being in the war.



Not as implausible as you might think, combine that with Yellowstone and you have your scenario!

Are you joking about the versus Russia because the Yellowstone bit is crazy ASB?

[The Red]

Are you joking about the versus Russia because the Yellowstone bit is crazy ASB?

I don't think Yellowstone's that ASB, you just need a subtle pre-1900 geological PoD. On the Soviets, there were several times during the early years of the war whern the Allies seriously considered going to war with the Soviet Union.

[Stéphane Dumas]

That reminds me of an old article from the National Lampoon about what if WWII had been fought like Vietnam?
http://web.archive.org/web/20041102151849/http://www.nationallampoon.com/flashbacks/ww2/ww2.html

[MerryPrankster]

The prevailing notion on these seems to be that once the Japanese do ANYTHING against the Western powers in the Pacific, it'll end in firebombs and nukes on their home islands. I agree that objectively speaking this is true, since the US has so much industrial mass. However, I never understood why every scenario has to come to total war; why can't the US decide that the fight isn't worth it after a bad start?

That's what I was about to suggest.

Maybe the declaration of war arrives before the Pearl Harbor attack so it doesn't come off as treacherous (thus PO'ing the public), or PH is avoided entirely?

I've heard here that "War Plan Orange" (which would have gotten the Pacific Fleet destroyed if they'd implemented it in a carrier age) had been replaced by plans acknowleding the Phillippines was indefensible.

Maybe if the Japanese start the war in the Phillippines, it's considered less of a big deal by the American public? Many people might not want to fight the Japanese for territories that would be given independence in 1944 anyway.

[The Red]

That reminds me of an old article from the National Lampoon about what if WWII had been fought like Vietnam?
http://web.archive.org/web/20041102151849/http://www.nationallampoon.com/flashbacks/ww2/ww2.html

Wow. I wonder if this was the inspiration for News from the Front?

[LeoXiao]

I think it is because of USA racism (yellow peril) and the surprise attack. If say FDR had provoke an war with Japan over say Indochina, where the USA fired the first shot, and the war was going badly like OTL, then sure, the USA might accept peace. I can even see FDR losing re election or the congress flipping to Republicans. But with the other guys attacking first, the USA tends to do a 9/11 type overkill. Just our culture.
This seems about right. It is peculiar how we overreact to the smallest things.
But anyways, let's say that Japan only takes Indochina, avoids the Philippines, and starts gnawing on the DEI. Would it make sense if the US were to attack Japan over it, get kicked off the Philippines due to crappy techniques and command, and, after suffering a Pearl-Harbor style humiliation, sue for peace? Perhaps the Japanese would let the Americans retain the Philippines in exchange for not being bothered regarding the DEI and other territories of Western powers.

[MattII]

IMO would take a communist Germany or fascist Russia to pull off, There's no other combination that would have the required industrial capacity, and even then, the lack of a single standard of vehicles would hurt any multilateral effort.

[Googolbyte]

IMO would take a communist Germany or fascist Russia to pull off, There's no other combination that would have the required industrial capacity, and even then, the lack of a single standard of vehicles would hurt any multilateral effort.

I'm not even sure if US vs. the rest of the world would result in a US loss. I'm surprised they never tried.

[MattII]

Oh the US would lose eventually if it was taking on the rest of the world (or all the other participants of WW2 combined), but it wouldn't be an easy victory. For one thing, you'd have logistical snarl-ups on every issue.

[Snake Featherston]

Have the USSR wipe out Army Group Center at Moscow and wrap up WWII before the USA can even get an army into Europe during the European part of WWII, while also doing most-all the heavy lifting in the Pacific. That's not merely a loss, that's embarrassing.

[Snake Featherston]

That's what I was about to suggest.

Maybe the declaration of war arrives before the Pearl Harbor attack so it doesn't come off as treacherous (thus PO'ing the public), or PH is avoided entirely?

I've heard here that "War Plan Orange" (which would have gotten the Pacific Fleet destroyed if they'd implemented it in a carrier age) had been replaced by plans acknowleding the Phillippines was indefensible.

Maybe if the Japanese start the war in the Phillippines, it's considered less of a big deal by the American public? Many people might not want to fight the Japanese for territories that would be given independence in 1944 anyway.

Or maybe just have the USSR win the war before either the USA or the UK have even the basic tactical proficiency to win a campaign against the UK and USA? That's certainly a USA-screw as the USA looks both weak and overrated......

[Julian]

Have the USSR wipe out Army Group Center at Moscow and wrap up WWII before the USA can even get an army into Europe during the European part of WWII, while also doing most-all the heavy lifting in the Pacific. That's not merely a loss, that's embarrassing.

To add insult to injury, the Soviets also get northern Japan, all of Korea, and all of China in a single blow.

[MerryPrankster]

Or maybe just have the USSR win the war before either the USA or the UK have even the basic tactical proficiency to win a campaign against the UK and USA? That's certainly a USA-screw as the USA looks both weak and overrated......

That doesn't involve the U.S. actually being defeated by anybody.

[Snake Featherston]

That doesn't involve the U.S. actually being defeated by anybody.

It just said "lose WWII." ;)

[Julian]

It just said "lose WWII." ;)

Indeed. An undevastated Soviet Union with Western Europe and East Asia at its disposal is far, far more powerful than the Axis at its height.

[Snake Featherston]

Indeed. An undevastated Soviet Union with Western Europe and East Asia at its disposal is far, far more powerful than the Axis at its height.

And a USA that gets involved in WWII but finds the war over long before democracy fixes the shipping issues and other things required to make its military muscle felt has major issues of national prestige as well as the question of "What the Hell did we even do this for if the Soviets just got everything?"

[paulo]

I think it is because of USA racism (yellow peril) and the surprise attack. If say FDR had provoke an war with Japan over say Indochina, where the USA fired the first shot, and the war was going badly like OTL, then sure, the USA might accept peace. I can even see FDR losing re election or the congress flipping to Republicans. But with the other guys attacking first, the USA tends to do a 9/11 type overkill. Just our culture.

And there was a limited war, with Japan in China. If Japan does not escalate and can find oil (bit ASB), then yes the USA could get tired, just like we did in Vietnam or Iraq.

They can find the Daquing fields (possible, not ASB) - the escalate part is more difficult.

[HMS Warspite]

An alternative way for the USA to "loose" in WW2 was to remain strictly neutral at all cost, following the original doctrine of Isolationalism of the early 20's to the letter, with a weaker and less charismatic FDR, a more powerfull Congress and a strong national Pacifist feeling, especially towards Europe.

At all cost means the Japanese would not go to war against the USA, since the USA were less opposed to the demands of the Japanese in this case, as long as they could remain at peace with other states. The Philippines might be problematic, but as it already was something the USA as an anti colonial power was not realy wanted, the USA might accept an early inependence of the colony, even if that would mean japan could get a free hand in SE Asia, with the withdrawing of US millitary in that region. (Isolationalism again).

A more Autarkish USA with a strong internal feeling and little or no itnerest in the outside world, was a recept for a much weaker USA, as it would loose most of its influence in the world as a result of remaining outside the unwanted conflict. The USA as a power would not be affected that much, as the domestic policy and economy would remain as it was, but its political international prestige would throw the USA back to a level of other Isolationalist states, such as modern Norhtern Korea.

[LeoXiao]

They can find the Daquing fields (possible, not ASB) - the escalate part is more difficult.

The Daqing oilfields are big but they are difficult and maybe impossible to find with the surveying techniques of the time. This is why IOTL they were discovered in 1959 and not earlier.