Double Blind: What if Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991?

[Thande]

Now, before you say this is ASB, there is some evidence that Iraq considered an invasion of Kuwait after the Iran-Iraq War. And let's not rule anything out considering the mind of Saddam Hussein.

What would the knock-on effects of this be? Would the US intervene? If so, would there be a swift victory or would this be another Vietnam? And would the victory bounce be enough for George Bush to win a second term, whereas in OTL his handling of the economy led to his fall from power?

[LowLevelFunctionary]

Your talking about Saddam invading and annexing the entire country, right? If so:

Considering how, when in OTL Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1995, the international community responded to it by placing heavy sanctions and even considered military action(which of course were cancelled), I would expect Iraq would have been invaded, especially since Iraq did not have any nuclear weapons in those days. HOWEVER, the invasion would probably have been a disaster for the United States and any coalition of nations. After Iraqi forces kill large amounts of US and other troops, you may even see some sort of uprising and mass protests against the war in the participating nations...

Although considering how quickly the UN dropped sanctions against Iraq OTL, I wonder if the US would have actually been bothered to respond... especially since Iraq was an ally at the time!

[Gladi]

Be well
Saddam would be hailed as new prophet of Arab people. He would invade and set up republican regime in Kuwait in place of of the royal dynasty (he would never try to keep it, he may be today slipping down but back in 1991 he was still fair guy). This would cause upswing in Ba'ath popularity, mark my words by this time there would be no kingdoms in Middle East and whole region would be peacefull and prosperous.

Though I think the *** nuclear powerplant would not be finished without US support...

[Flocculencio]

Saddam Hussein? Well- if you think that the Hashemites would let him lead their armies in a major military operation after the foul-ups on the Iranian border. Remember, he was pretty much discredited as a military leader after that fiasco.

Maybe if he overthrew old King Hussein and seized power? Unlikely though- the Hashemites are far too popular among their people.

In any case, I think that the West in general would be willing to let the Iraqis go for Kuwait. After all, Iraq is the most prosperous and liberal of the Arab nations and they're our closest ally in the Middle East.

[King Gorilla]

I concur. Although Huessein is a brutal strongman with numerous human rights abuses under his belt, he has been a relatively egalitarian modernizer in an unstable region. Iraq under Huessein has created a large stable middle class and a remarkably secular national government. Compaired to the other gulf arab states iraq is a beacon of progressive thought. While his pogroms against the shiites and kurds have been horrible, at least he has been seeking reconcilliation in recent years. As far as the United States is concerned, it couldn't ask for a better ally in the region (particularily due to the islamist coups in pakistan, afghanistan and turkmenistan sponsered largely by saudi petrol dollars) It's military intervention in Kuwait was largely an OPEC matter and the end result ultimately benefited America's oil industry. However if a war happened it would undoubtably been a long hard slog, Iraq has one of the finest armies in the middle east and the United States and its allies would certainly have their hands full. The Coalition would probably still win the day but victory would mean most of Iraq and Kuwaits oil fields going up in flames and the United States alone taking 10,000-30,000 casualties. Nevertheless if Bush could sell the war to the American people, his victory would be assured. I hate to think what would happen to america though without the sound fiscal policies of 8 years of Cuomo and Gore.

[Hermanubis]

Wonder how this would affect the Union with Syria…


<Double Blinds seem to be all the rage right now, it seems…>

[Wendell]

Now, before you say this is ASB, there is some evidence that Iraq considered an invasion of Kuwait after the Iran-Iraq War. And let's not rule anything out considering the mind of Saddam Hussein.

What would the knock-on effects of this be? Would the US intervene? If so, would there be a swift victory or would this be another Vietnam? And would the victory bounce be enough for George Bush to win a second term, whereas in OTL his handling of the economy led to his fall from power?
Would the Democrats have nominated someone other than Robert Kerrey in 1992?

[Nicole]

Would the Democrats have nominated someone other than Robert Kerrey in 1992?
It'd be interesting if they nominated Governor Bill Clinton, if only to see how the sex scandals would play out on the national scale...

[Wendell]

It'd be interesting if they nominated Governor Bill Clinton, if only to see how the sex scandals would play out on the national scale...
Definitely. This is especially true when we consider how Hart, who was initially to be Kerrey's running mate, was replaced by Gore at the 1992 Democratic Convention.

[Grimm Reaper]

I must note that Iraq and Jordan have traditionally had good relations, so it is difficult to imagine such a breach of relations. However, if Saddam did go into Kuwait, King Hussein would certainly give full support to his fellow kings and probably deploy the small but elite Jordanian Army to defend Saudi Arabia so Saddam might feel a need to preempt this.

[Romulus Augustulus]

Do you think this would have ripple effects on the Soviet Union? Perhaps that coup might have resulted in the breakup of the USSR into its constituent republics? I'm glad that didn't happen...if so, the USSR'd probably be a bunch of squabbling little nation-states with unguarded nuclear stockpiles as opposed to the growing economic powerhouse it is today.

I also think that such an invasion would have resulted in international intervention, which would have been catastrophic for Iraq...the place is bad enough as it is, although still a power, but after a major trashing and UN embargos...

A possible upside would have been Iran and Iraq not getting nukes, possibly.

[Nicole]

((OOC: Hadn't republics already seceded by 1991?))

[Romulus Augustulus]

(OOC: Not until later in the year...;))

[Nicole]

(OOC: Not until later in the year...;))
((OOC: Hadn't the Baltics had in late 1990? Admittedly the rest were still around))

[LowLevelFunctionary]

(OOC: Not sure if it was intentional in this thread to say that Iraq invaded in 1991 - but Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 OTL - and so the Baltic States would still have been part of the Soviet Union - correct? I am not actually sure when they seceded however so forgive my ignorance on this matter)

[Wendell]

Sever Soviet Republics were leaving in 1990 in OTL. I fail to see a correlation between Iraq invading Kuwait, and the U.S.S.R. holding together of collapsing based on Iraq's action or lack thereof.

[Romulus Augustulus]

OOC: No, it wasn't for sure. What Gorbachev wanted to do was to negotiate a new Union Treaty decentralizing the USSR somewhat...I'm assuming ripple effects will be enough to get it through.

[Nicole]

OOC: No, it wasn't for sure. What Gorbachev wanted to do was to negotiate a new Union Treaty decentralizing the USSR somewhat...I'm assuming ripple effects will be enough to get it through.
OOC: The Baltic States would most likely still leave though.... the rest might hold together I guess.

[Romulus Augustulus]

OOC: The Baltic States would most likely still leave though.... the rest might hold together I guess.

Who needs 'em, anyway?

(No offense, IMO...that's what the situation is. Independent Baltics, lesser Japan-type USSR)

[Wendell]

Who needs 'em, anyway?

(No offense, IMO...that's what the situation is. Independent Baltics, lesser Japan-type USSR)
Stalin, apparently:mad:

[Romulus Augustulus]

Stalin, apparently:mad:

OOC: Yeah. But by the early 1990s, they have no redeeming value...eliminating them is cutting fat, not muscle, and is preserving the rest of the system. On the downside, it means that you've got a large Russian minority in Estonia...one to get the revanchists riled up...

Speaking of which, what do you guys think of Argentina's nuclear test? I personally think that considering the fact that the Chileans and Brazilians are probably very close to acquiring nuclear weapons, complaint from the IAEC or not, it's a sensible thing to do...

[AMBOMB]

I really don't see what difference an invasion 1 year later than OTL would've made.

[Nicole]

Speaking of which, what do you guys think of Argentina's nuclear test? I personally think that considering the fact that the Chileans and Brazilians are probably very close to acquiring nuclear weapons, complaint from the IAEC or not, it's a sensible thing to do...
Well, since the government's gone Democratic... It would be pretty bad if it tried to restart the Falkland Wars, though. Especially with all the nationalists in power in Britain, who certainly won't give up their meager scraps of Empire. (Look how they reacted when Australia became a Republic!)

[Wendell]

OOC: Yeah. But by the early 1990s, they have no redeeming value...eliminating them is cutting fat, not muscle, and is preserving the rest of the system. On the downside, it means that you've got a large Russian minority in Estonia...one to get the revanchists riled up...

Speaking of which, what do you guys think of Argentina's nuclear test? I personally think that considering the fact that the Chileans and Brazilians are probably very close to acquiring nuclear weapons, complaint from the IAEC or not, it's a sensible thing to do...
It would be one thing to let the Pact fall apart, and quite another to start letting the USSR itself go. Might it drop the Caucusus or parts of Central Asia instead? It the Baltics go, it makes the Soviet Union far more vulnerable to foreign blockade...

[Romulus Augustulus]

It would be one thing to let the Pact fall apart, and quite another to start letting the USSR itself go. Might it drop the Caucusus or parts of Central Asia instead? It the Baltics go, it makes the Soviet Union far more vulnerable to foreign blockade...

Maybe the Caucasus, but Central Asia was pretty intent on staying part of the USSR.