AH Topics 40 Years from Now

[Diamond]

A lot of people frown on (and rightly so, IMO) AH scenarios with POD set only months or a year or two ago. But 40 years from now, there will be a whole new slew of ultra-popular AH topics to go alongside 'WI Hitler Won', 'WI the CSA Won', etc.

What do you think some of them might be? Here's some of mine:

-WI Howard Dean won the '04 democratic primaries?
-WI Bush Junior hadn't invaded Iraq?
-WI Bush Junior had invaded N. Korea instead of Iraq?
-WI Bush Junior lost/won the '04 election?

[Straha]

WI drugs weren't legalized
WI WWIII went even more nuclear
WI Islam still existed in the middle east
WI isreal had its pre WWIII borders
WI Isreal didn't own the gulf oil
WI mecca and medina weren't nuked

[Max Sinister]

WI there hadn't been a blogging boom around the millenium?
WI the German Social Democrats had (not) split?
WI Sharon hadn't killed the Hamas leader?
WI Dubya had found bin Laden / his body?
WI Saddam fled to $country while he had the opportunity?
WI Aznar had admitted from the start that it was Al Qaeda, not ETA?
WI Putin had lost / not candidated in the 2004 election?
WI Mel Gibson hadn't made the passion flick?
WI Lula hadn't become president of Brazil?

[Leo Caesius]

I considered making this query another thread, but I'm afraid of the flame war that would certainly ensue. So I'll bury it in here:

Do you think that the State of Israel will exist in 40 years?

This is an open ended question; I'm not trying to sell any sort of ideology here. I just wonder if people think Israel will be the same country it is today, forty years from now.

[Diamond]

Do you think that the State of Israel will exist in 40 years?


Frankly, I'd be surprised if there's ANY viable states left in the Middle East by 2050.

[Aedh Rua]

I considered making this query another thread, but I'm afraid of the flame war that would certainly ensue. So I'll bury it in here:

Do you think that the State of Israel will exist in 40 years?

This is an open ended question; I'm not trying to sell any sort of ideology here. I just wonder if people think Israel will be the same country it is today, forty years from now.

Very hard to say. Current demographic trends might see Israel with an Arab majority, if nothing changes, particularly if Israel eventually annexes a good part of the West Bank. I think we can be sure that this would be bad for the future of Israel as we know it.

But that's a hard prediction to make, even so. As the conflicts get worse and worse, will the Palestinian birthrate and rate of survival into childbearing years stay high? What about the effects of further wars (guaranteed at this stage), or use of WMD (awfully likely)? And what about AIDS? If no vaccine or really cheap treatments are developed, it may well end up depopulating more regions of the world, as it is doing in Africa. Which regions are still up in the air. The Middle East may weather such a die-back well, or poorly, we just don't know yet.

And these are only the nasty possibilities we know about. There will also be nasty surprises.

[sunsurf]

WI there were harsher penalties against vendors of software which had bugs?
WI Microsoft hadn't been allowed to be a monopoly?
WI the early Internet had security features to prevent spam and viruses from being such a problem?
WI there was more private enterprise in space?
WI butterfly ballots had never been invented?
WI Al Gore had let Bill Clinton campaign for Gore's election?
WI Howard Dean won the 2004 nomination?
WI Bill Gates had donated $1 billion to his favorite presidential candidate?
WI that candidate was neither a Republican or a Democrat?

[Melvin Loh]

WI WMD evidence had been found in Iraq ?
WI a greater UN mandate had been achieved in the reconstruction of Iraq ?
WI the Australian army had decided to buy Leopard 2 or Challenger 2 MBTs instead of 59 M1A1s ?
WI Al Sharpton was considered a serious presidential candidate ?
WI a wider coalition of the willing against Iraq besides the US, UK and Australia had existed in 2003 ?
WI Foday Sankoh had lived to be tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the Sierra Leone Special Court ?
WI David Hicks and other Guantanamo Bay detainees had been tried by US Military Commission and found guilty of acts of terrorism ?
WI Saddam Hussein had not surrendered to coalition forces ?
WI Jean Bertrand Aristide hadn't been forced to flee from office ?
WI Australia had a less oppressive refugee regime for asylum seekers ?

[Xen]

What if Al Gore won Flordia in 2000
What if no September 11 (this one is being worked too much now)
What if gay marriage bans had not been lifted

[MerryPrankster]

WI Ralph Nader Did Not Run in 2004?

WI John Edwards Had Won the Democratic Primaries?

WI Western mercenaries had overthrown the government of Equatorial Guinea? (some tried, but were intercepted in Zimbabwe)

[Grimm Reaper]

What if the Democrats had not lost in a landslide to Bush in 2004?

What if the October 2004 terror attack had not cost Bush the election?

What if Bill Clinton never met Monica Lewinsky(48th president of the United States 2033-2041)?

What if the explosive 2028 election between Governor George P Bush of Florida and Senator Chelsea Clinton of Illinois had gone differently?

What if the 28th amendment had not been passed? Who would have replace President AHNOLD?

[Fardell]

WI Rudd didn't become opposition leader in late 2006?

WI no Fiji coup in 2006?

[sunsurf]

At least one more forum might be added, for 1901-2000 PODs.

And some smart-aleck might claim we're running out of PODs for pre-2000 events, and start posting what-ifs like:

WI FDR had died on January 1, 1945?
WI FDR had died on January 2, 1945?
WI FDR had died on January 3, 1945?
WI FDR had died on January 4, 1945?
etc.

It might be an interesting challenge to parse the subtleties, but it could get annoying rather quickly.

OTOH, there are so many other influential people to provide so many other good PODs if they had died at different times.

If William Howard Taft dies in his sleep in the middle of the night, that's one thing, but if he dies 12 hours later during a state dinner, that's another, and if he dies just before entering the dining room, that's another...

[Berra]

Bush losing in Florida seams hard to avoid. It was so close that things could have turned the other way.

A bit more controversial guess would be WI no CO2 scare.

And

WI more protectionism keeps East Asia poor.

And I bet it would be a WI about EU. WI a sane constitution? Or WI a sucessful Lisaboa process?

[Ivan Druzhkov]

I was just looking over these old posts, and I have to ask: is it just me, or are most of the PODs we mentioned based on the kind of stuff we barely remember three years later? I mean, who honestly is going to remember who Howard Dean was in 2044?

[Max Sinister]

History freaks like us? ;)

[Thande]

I was just looking over these old posts, and I have to ask: is it just me, or are most of the PODs we mentioned based on the kind of stuff we barely remember three years later? I mean, who honestly is going to remember who Howard Dean was in 2044?

History freaks like us? ;)

Exactly - think of all the obscure presidential candidates from 1840 or 1950 or whatever the Americans are always making threads about :D

The question is, what will be the next event so major that it makes the general public wonder about counterfactuals? The last one was, depending on what threshold you put it at, 9/11, the end of the Cold War, or WW2.

[Viscount Stanthorpe]

Here goes...


What if Yeltsin had lost the election in 1996?
What if Blair had taken the UK into the Euro in 1999?
What if the nuclear non-proliferation treaty had been enforced more readily?
What if the original (2005) European Constitution had been ratified by European governments & not by referenda?
What if Schwarzenegger had failed in his Presidential bid?
What if Indian War of Reunification had not taken place?
What if Hurricane Joshua had not re-submerged New Orleans?
What if the China had protected its environment more effectively?
What if the Iraqi Union had survived?

[Admiral Brown]

WI Iran had got an atomic bomb in the first decade of this century?

WI the reunification of both Coreas hadn't been peacefull?

WI if any Pakistani scientist had sold its secrets to a terrorist organization during the countrys civil war?

WI a convenient substitute for oil had been found earlier (Let's say, around 2004)?

[Demosthenes]

A lot of people frown on (and rightly so, IMO) AH scenarios with POD set only months or a year or two ago. But 40 years from now, there will be a whole new slew of ultra-popular AH topics to go alongside 'WI Hitler Won', 'WI the CSA Won', etc.

What do you think some of them might be? Here's some of mine:

-WI Howard Dean won the '04 democratic primaries?
-WI Bush Junior hadn't invaded Iraq?
-WI Bush Junior had invaded N. Korea instead of Iraq?
-WI Bush Junior lost/won the '04 election?

What if Hillary Clinton did not win the 08 and 12 elections?
What if Musharrif did not allow Bhutto as Prime Minister?
WI Gore was not a major advocate of climate control?

[Johnestauffer]

What if people had believed the Global Warming doom sayers?

[tallwingedgoat]

What if there was no war with Iran?

What if there was no Second Depression of the world economy?

What if protectionism didn't undermine Globalization?

What if the Saudi royal family wasn't overthrown by extremists?

What if the Cold War and nuclear arms race didn't resume?