Nuclear Armed Taiwan

[SAVORYapple]

say that Chiang Kai Shek became very very serious about developing nuclear weapons in the early 1960s (a few years before china had real missile capability).....and they test detonate their first nuke in 1970, a few years before the Sino-American rapproachment.....

would china accept a nuclear armed taiwan up to the present?

[Cook]

would china accept a nuclear armed taiwan up to the present?
Well they'd have to wouldn't they?

[SAVORYapple]

Well they'd have to wouldn't they?

but what would cross strait relations look like now?

MAD between China and Taiwan?

[Devolved]

say that Chiang Kai Shek became very very serious about developing nuclear weapons in the early 1960s (a few years before china had real missile capability).....and they test detonate their first nuke in 1970, a few years before the Sino-American rapproachment.....

would china accept a nuclear armed taiwan up to the present?

I guess you are assuming that Chiang Kai Shek could organise anything more complex than a cocktail party!

[Color-Copycat]

With enough US aid, anything is possible :p

[Devolved]

With enough US aid, anything is possible :p


Chiang Kai Shek was the first guy to prove that was not true.

[Cook]

With enough US aid...
There is only one client state that the US has (allegedly) assistanted to develop nuclear weapons. All other western powers, Britain, France etc. had to do it entirely independently because of the strong American wish to maintain control of the keys to the car.

[hairysamarian]

would china accept a nuclear armed taiwan up to the present?


I doubt it. Seems to me that mainland China has accepted Taiwan's existence not only because of US support, but because Taiwan has (largely) stayed quiet. That is, they have made fewer noises about official independence than they could have and they have represented no military threat to the mainland. The simple development, let alone the actual detonation, of a nuclear weapon by Taiwan would change that. Relations would heat up very quickly and there would probably be a shooting war. In fact, I think the mainland would take that step well before Taiwan had a chance to finish a prototype, let alone explode one.

The only question is the role of the US in this. I can't see the US encouraging Taiwan to develop a bomb, or supporting them if they did it anyways, simply because it would be so destabilizing. And without US backing, they'd probably get overrun.

[SAVORYapple]

I doubt it. Seems to me that mainland China has accepted Taiwan's existence not only because of US support, but because Taiwan has (largely) stayed quiet. That is, they have made fewer noises about official independence than they could have and they have represented no military threat to the mainland. The simple development, let alone the actual detonation, of a nuclear weapon by Taiwan would change that. Relations would heat up very quickly and there would probably be a shooting war. In fact, I think the mainland would take that step well before Taiwan had a chance to finish a prototype, let alone explode one.

The only question is the role of the US in this. I can't see the US encouraging Taiwan to develop a bomb, or supporting them if they did it anyways, simply because it would be so destabilizing. And without US backing, they'd probably get overrun.

my timeframe for this assumes the fact that China was at this time developing it's own bomb.........

[Cook]

Have the Nationalist Chinese opt in on the (alleged) deal between South Africa and Israel.

[SAVORYapple]

Have the Nationalist Chinese opt in on the (alleged) deal between South Africa and Israel.

hehehehe.....hmm....

[Thande]

I once read a technothriller where the premise was that the Taiwanese had started a secret nuclear research facility on Kerguelen in order to obtain a nuclear deterrent (this was written in the 90s and set in something like 2002...those books quickly ended up unintentional AH due to the lack of 9/11).

[SAVORYapple]

I once read a technothriller where the premise was that the Taiwanese had started a secret nuclear research facility on Kerguelen in order to obtain a nuclear deterrent (this was written in the 90s and set in something like 2002...those books quickly ended up unintentional AH due to the lack of 9/11).

Taiwan cannot get nuclear weapons now....China has explicitly stated that if we start moving toward the bomb, they'll invade.......

we do, however, have cruise missiles that might be able to hit the three gorges dam and Beijing........

[hairysamarian]

my timeframe for this assumes the fact that China was at this time developing it's own bomb.........

The mainland certainly has them, yeah. But if Taiwan tried, and if Beijing got a whiff of it, I think the project would be curtailed by the war that would erupt.

[SAVORYapple]

The mainland certainly has them, yeah. But if Taiwan tried, and if Beijing got a whiff of it, I think the project would be curtailed by the war that would erupt.

would Beijing invade?????

well, assuming it is conducted in secrecy, and China doesn't get any whiff until the first test detonation....

[Devolved]

would Beijing invade?????

well, assuming it is conducted in secrecy, and China doesn't get any whiff until the first test detonation....

I would assume Taiwan has more than enough pro Beijing spies to inform the Beijing government of almost everything that happens in Taipei.

[hairysamarian]

would Beijing invade?????
Obviously I can't answer for them, but my gut instinct is : hell yes.

well, assuming it is conducted in secrecy, and China doesn't get any whiff until the first test detonation....

The thing about governments is, all conspiracy theories and spy novels aside, they generally stink on ice at keeping secrets. Especially big, expensive, resource-intensive ones like, well, developing nuclear weapons. I really think the secret would get out.

And the first test detonation would come a long time before a militarily viable production model was available to deter an invasion.

[SAVORYapple]

Obviously I can't answer for them, but my gut instinct is : hell yes.



The thing about governments is, all conspiracy theories and spy novels aside, they generally stink on ice at keeping secrets. Especially big, expensive, resource-intensive ones like, well, developing nuclear weapons. I really think the secret would get out.

And the first test detonation would come a long time before a militarily viable production model was available to deter an invasion.

so no nukes for Taiwan.....:mad::mad::mad::(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(

[Thande]

Taiwan cannot get nuclear weapons now....China has explicitly stated that if we start moving toward the bomb, they'll invade.......

we do, however, have cruise missiles that might be able to hit the three gorges dam and Beijing........

That was the point, the idea was that it would remain secret until they already had the bomb (though, in practice, that would probably be impossible in real life). In the book it was scuttled when a PRC submarine tracked one of the Taiwanese resupply submarines to the base and destroyed it.

[SAVORYapple]

That was the point, the idea was that it would remain secret until they already had the bomb (though, in practice, that would probably be impossible in real life). In the book it was scuttled when a PRC submarine tracked one of the Taiwanese resupply submarines to the base and destroyed it.

hmmm...very ASB.
the last thing Taiwan needs is an excuse for china to drop a nuke on our heads.....

[BlondieBC]

Taiwan cannot get nuclear weapons now....China has explicitly stated that if we start moving toward the bomb, they'll invade.......

we do, however, have cruise missiles that might be able to hit the three gorges dam and Beijing........

True, but what if someone sold Taiwan the complete package of say 10 nuclear weapons plus the cruise missiles to deliver them. Bit ASB right now, but if who knows maybe in the future.

[SAVORYapple]

True, but what if someone sold Taiwan the complete package of say 10 nuclear weapons plus the cruise missiles to deliver them. Bit ASB right now, but if who knows maybe in the future.

hmmm...might be an ASB topic......

we don't need to buy the cruise missiles. we have our own

[sloreck]

Even absent the US 6th fleet, China does not now have the capability to stage an amphibious invasion of Taiwan although that may change in the not too distant future. This is a totally conventional war we are talking about. In the 60s/70s, was not much China could do if Taiwan had a nuke capability, even if ROC & PRC exploded first devices about the same time. IMHO this would, however had lots of butterflies in ROC-PRC relations, also ROC-US relations.

IMHO Israel achieved nukes absent US help, and ROC probably could as well as they had good scientific brains.

[Cook]

Prior to 1970 Nationalist China (Taiwan) occupied China’s Permanent Seat in the Security Council, which is an enormous bargaining chip in any negotiations.

Faced with similar security concerns; small internal populations surrounded by large neigbours with stated ambitions to destroy them and a politically unreliable relationship with the United States and other western powers, Taiwan, Israel and South Africa entered into negotiations in the mid 1960s on the joint development of tactical nuclear weapons, most work being conducted by Israel’s nuclear scientists at their facility in Dimona and testing being conducted in South Africa. Taiwan providing a guaranteed UN veto on any Security Council resolution against any of them.

It was only in the late 1970s, following America’s political and military withdrawal from East Asia that Taiwan announced that it had a credible nuclear deterrent of at least ten nuclear warheads…

[SAVORYapple]

[FONT=Verdana]It was only in the late 1970s, following America’s political and military withdrawal from East Asia that Taiwan announced that it had a credible nuclear deterrent of at least ten nuclear warheads…

possible TL here???

possible, edge of possibility, if Chiang's son didn't abandon the program

EDIT: Taiwan's seat on the UNSC is a big bargaining chip......for israel and S.africa,

[SAVORYapple]

in the late 1970s, Taiwan has already lost it's UN seats......


1) Chinese reaction to declaration: saber rattling, air raids, and announcement of Invasion. PRC isn't actually going to do any of this, since taiwan might use Nuclear weapons to decimate the invasion fleet.
2) Taiwan might not have credible delivery systems, unless israel was kind enough to provide jericho 1 missiles. Chiang is dead? now, so this might be used as a bargaining chip with China
3) U.S. might not approve, but.....

[hairysamarian]

in the late 1970s, Taiwan has already lost it's UN seats......


1) Chinese reaction to declaration: saber rattling, air raids, and announcement of Invasion. PRC isn't actually going to do any of this, since taiwan might use Nuclear weapons to decimate the invasion fleet.
2) Taiwan might not have credible delivery systems, unless israel was kind enough to provide jericho 1 missiles. Chiang is dead? now, so this might be used as a bargaining chip with China
3) U.S. might not approve, but.....

1) Beijing has had nuclear weapons deliverable by air since '65, and by missile since '66. (just looked it up). If Taiwan tried to play the nuclear game, there's nothing that says they'd get a chance to defend against an invasion.
2) Enough to take mainland China out of the picture? I'm sure I don't have to remind you, of all people, of how many people they have and how unreasonable they can be towards perceived threats.
3) They certainly wouldn't. At the least, Taiwan would lose US support.

[SAVORYapple]

1) Beijing has had nuclear weapons deliverable by air since '65, and by missile since '66. (just looked it up). If Taiwan tried to play the nuclear game, there's nothing that says they'd get a chance to defend against an invasion.
2) Enough to take mainland China out of the picture? I'm sure I don't have to remind you, of all people, of how many people they have and how unreasonable they can be towards perceived threats.
3) They certainly wouldn't. At the least, Taiwan would lose US support.

1) hmmmm....so Taiwan keep's it's nuke program secret, but rumours abound about a ROC nuke.(Israel of Asia)
2) hmmm....China hurt, Taiwan a glowing, radioactive slagpile. but I think that Israel might at least provide viable IRBMs
3) so it's choosing between nukes and the U.S.

[Cook]

in the late 1970s, Taiwan has already lost it's UN seats...
Correct, but has present and available in 1960 when any development would have had to take place.
1) Chinese reaction to declaration: saber rattling.
Chinese response to a late 1970s Taiwan announcement of nuclear capability would be limited to sabre rattling and denunciations. China did not have the capability at that time to cross the Taiwan Straits in force and no-one’s going to start a war with someone just because they’ve announced that they have the ability to destroy your capital city. Especially because they’ve announced…
3) U.S. might not approve, but.....
With the writing already on the wall, US disapproval is just another reason to have a credible independent capability.
2) Enough to take mainland China out of the picture? I'm sure I don't have to remind you, of all people, of how many people they have and how unreasonable they can be towards perceived threats.
The Chinese know there is no deterrent difference between having a few nuclear weapons and having thousands. Hence they haven’t bothered to expand their nuclear arsenal. Taiwan having nuclear warheads just puts China’s out of contention even as a threat.

[SAVORYapple]

Newsflash:Taipei Times

Date: 25/11/2011

In the latest saber rattling from the Mainland, the PRC has again demanded that Taiwan dismantle the two dozen or so nuclear weapons Taiwan possess. This is the 25th demand the PRC has made since Taiwan publicly announced it had possession of Nuclear weapons in 1978. Taiwan’s small nuclear deterrent, believed to be mounted on Tien Ma Missiles with a range of up to 1400km, sufficient to hit major Chinese cities such as Shanghai. Taiwan is also believed to have at least two warheads deployed on submarine based cruise missiles, with the ability to hit the Mainland Capital. It is believed that this demand is a response to a U.S. announcement earlier this month that a large arms deal package had been finalized between Taiwan and the United States. The U.S. have recently been very worried about the expanding capabilities of China’s Military……..

[SAVORYapple]

The Chinese know there is no deterrent difference between having a few nuclear weapons and having thousands. Hence they haven’t bothered to expand their nuclear arsenal. Taiwan having nuclear warheads just puts China’s out of contention even as a threat.

the theory of minimum deterrence. taiwan having two dozen or so warheads, each with the capability to kill hundreds of thousands of Chinese and wreck up to twenty mainland cities, will stay their hand.

I could see Taiwan in this situation actually continuing their nuclear program locally.......

the U.S. will be pissed, but they will still want to see china's influence curtailed.....somewhat.

[Sumeragi]

Given that the US (more like the CIA) probably had a hand on the assassination of Park Chung Hee, who was very close to the bomb, I would say that Chiang having the bomb is almost on ASB UNLESS Park was never killed and the Korean nuclear program was finished on schedule in 1980.

[SAVORYapple]

Given that the US (more like the CIA) probably had a hand on the assassination of Park Chung Hee, who was very close to the bomb, I would say that Chiang having the bomb is almost on ASB UNLESS Park was never killed and the Korean nuclear program was finished on schedule in 1980.

no, in this TL, Israel, South Africa, and Taiwan secretly formalized an alliance.
Israel provided bomb and reactor designs, South Africa Uranium and enrichment techniques (nozzle enrichment).

Taiwan's nukes (as I envision them) are basically simple plutonium implosion devices. no boosting, and no fusion weapons. each is around 20-30 kilotons each.......

Since the tripartite with Israel and South Africa has fallen apart early 1970s, Taiwan has been working by itself, with equipment and resources (uranium) imported secretly from South Africa, in violation of international sanctions. it operates several small reactors, which are actually bomb factories.

plausible TL?

[Sumeragi]

Well, I'm not really sure about this. Exactly how are earth are all those refining equipment going to be imported while escaping the eyes of the IAEA and the US? The main problem I see is that Taiwan was even more open in terms of trade than ROK ever was in the 1970's, and unless Taiwan by itself had substantial indigenous refining capacity (which ROK did have in the 1970's), the nuclear program wouldn't be going anywhere.

We would most likely have to start working on how the tripartite worked before approaching this. Once we do that, we might be able to go with a ROK-ROC nuclear alliance.

[SAVORYapple]

Well, I'm not really sure about this. Exactly how are earth are all those refining equipment going to be imported while escaping the eyes of the IAEA and the US? The main problem I see is that Taiwan was even more open in terms of trade than ROK ever was in the 1970's, and unless Taiwan by itself had substantial indigenous refining capacity (which ROK did have in the 1970's), the nuclear program wouldn't be going anywhere.


South African could have provided indigenous refining using aerodynamic nozzle enrichment......
smuggling wasn't that difficult back then. Now, with people running around like chickens when 0.0001 grams of nuclear material turns up missing.......it's different.



We would most likely have to start working on how the tripartite worked before approaching this. Once we do that, we might be able to go with a ROK-ROC nuclear alliance.
no, unlikely. Taiwan could have developed an indigenous capability with south african assistance only....hell, south africa HAD nuclear weapons. had enriched uranium. had local suppies of uranium ore.


and Taiwan doesn't need alot, just enough for minimum deterrence.....few dozen "simple" warheads, couple dozen kilotons each.

[LeoXiao]

Wasn't the KMT full of Communist spies? I don't know how long the Communist espionage was effective within their ranks, but if they still were through the 60s it seems like the PRC would've gotten wind of any nuclear project and then made a massive fuss of it.

[SAVORYapple]

Wasn't the KMT full of Communist spies? I don't know how long the Communist espionage was effective within their ranks, but if they still were through the 60s it seems like the PRC would've gotten wind of any nuclear project and then made a massive fuss of it.

one answer: Mossad

with a possible Tripartate pact come some cooperation...hopefully:D

but still, they can't actually invade.....

[loughery111]

Newsflash:Taipei Times

Date: 25/11/2011

In the latest saber rattling from the Mainland, the PRC has again demanded that Taiwan dismantle the two dozen or so nuclear weapons Taiwan possess. This is the 25th demand the PRC has made since Taiwan publicly announced it had possession of Nuclear weapons in 1978. Taiwan’s small nuclear deterrent, believed to be mounted on Tien Ma Missiles with a range of up to 1400km, sufficient to hit major Chinese cities such as Shanghai. Taiwan is also believed to have at least two warheads deployed on submarine based cruise missiles, with the ability to hit the Mainland Capital. It is believed that this demand is a response to a U.S. announcement earlier this month that a large arms deal package had been finalized between Taiwan and the United States. The U.S. have recently been very worried about the expanding capabilities of China’s Military……..

Heavenly Horse? Really??? :p

[SAVORYapple]

Heavenly Horse? Really??? :p

taiwan actually had such a program OTL 1990s....http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesoftheworld/id.170/missile_detail.asp

[Sumeragi]

no, unlikely. Taiwan could have developed an indigenous capability with south african assistance only....hell, south africa HAD nuclear weapons. had enriched uranium. had local suppies of uranium ore.
Taiwan has never had the industrial background to obtain such a project. While it is true that Taiwan wouldn't lack the scientists, the light-industry centered economic development would mean that Taiwan would either need to do uncharacteristic industrialization or seek external help.

There seems to be misunderstanding about given how South Africa (and recently, DPRK) have obtained nuclear capability, it is easy for any small but determined nation to do that. It isn't. Weapon-grade enriched uranium isn't going to be moved around without getting noticed (especially from South Africa to Taiwan), and both countries have one of the world's greatest reserves of uranium (believe it or not, DPRK has 4 million tons of uranium ore) to exploit. Also, isolation forced both to retake a lot of heavy industry buildup, forming the backbone of any nuclear weapon programs.

In short, no amount of help from South Africa would give Taiwan the capabilities to refine the necessary amount of uranium or plutonium to make nuclear bombs.


and Taiwan doesn't need alot, just enough for minimum deterrence.....
Yes, but still, how are you going to get that much uranium/plutonium to produce the dozen or so bombs?


Taking all of this together, there is only one ally which Taiwan can look to, and that is ROK. Now, given Parks disdain for Chiang, things might be rough, but I find it possible for a working relation to be formed with bombs being made by 1975.

[loughery111]

taiwan actually had such a program OTL 1990s....http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesoftheworld/id.170/missile_detail.asp

I guess it's apt... it fulfills the same role as a horse. But why not the Tian Xiongmao? :p Or, seriously speaking, just to mock the mainland, the Hexie Shehui-Class IRBM.

[SAVORYapple]

Taking all of this together, there is only one ally which Taiwan can look to, and that is ROK. Now, given Parks disdain for Chiang, things might be rough, but I find it possible for a working relation to be formed with bombs being made by 1975.

alright, you've convinced me.

Taiwan get's designs and basic enrichment tech, and trades to South Korea for some real bombs........

[Sumeragi]

I'll listen to other members' opinions before going into deeper research for this (never mind I'll be getting pretty busy in RL also...).

[SAVORYapple]

I guess it's apt... it fulfills the same role as a horse. But why not the Tian Xiongmao? :p Or, seriously speaking, just to mock the mainland, the Hexie Shehui-Class IRBM.

:p:p:p:p:p:p

but seriously, that is unnecessary aggravation!!!!
but I doubt china would invade over a missile name...hahahahaha

[loughery111]

:p:p:p:p:p:p

but seriously, that is unnecessary aggravation!!!!
but I doubt china would invade over a missile name...hahahahaha

More like the 让你的社会很和谐-class IRBM, but that's a bit of a mouthful.

[SAVORYapple]

More like the 让你的社会很和谐-class IRBM, but that's a bit of a mouthful.

okay, but seriously, what would the butterflies be?
with both nuclear armed south korea and taiwan.....

[loughery111]

okay, but seriously, what would the butterflies be?
with both nuclear armed south korea and taiwan.....

Good bloody question. I'm too lazy to consider it right now, though.

[Sumeragi]

with both nuclear armed south korea and taiwan.....

Assuming we have the nuclear test in 1975~6 (with only Taiwan declaring itself as a power, since ROK was negotiating some nuclear technology transfer), we'll be seeing Mao right before this death looking at what would seem to him to be a conspiracy by the US of invading PRC. Since he is probably going to die around the time he did in OTL, we might have Deng be shut out from power as the hardliners gain power using fear of ROC as a weapon. Basically, the market liberalization might be pushed back decades or perhaps indefinitely, turning the PRC into something akin to Burma.

This wouldn't be a pretty world. Leaving out PRC, the USSR is probably going to be more aggressive towards the ROK/ROC alliances, while the US would most likely be angry with both of its East Asian leaders.

[SAVORYapple]

Assuming we have the nuclear test in 1975~6 (with only Taiwan declaring itself as a power, since ROK was negotiating some nuclear technology transfer), we'll be seeing Mao right before this death looking at what would seem to him to be a conspiracy by the US of invading PRC. Since he is probably going to die around the time he did in OTL, we might have Deng be shut out from power as the hardliners gain power using fear of ROC as a weapon. Basically, the market liberalization might be pushed back decades or perhaps indefinitely, turning the PRC into something akin to Burma.

This wouldn't be a pretty world. Leaving out PRC, the USSR is probably going to be more aggressive towards the ROK/ROC alliances, while the US would most likely be angry with both of its East Asian leaders.

I'm assuming 1977-8.......
so deng still comes to power....but he'll need to be more hardline.

[omega21]

Does Deng Xiaoping shifting to become more politically hardline butterfly his domestic socio-economic stance - that stance which led China to open up? I have the impression (not backed up with research yet, mind) that he adopted a nonconfrontational foreign policy.

I once read a technothriller where the premise was that the Taiwanese had started a secret nuclear research facility on Kerguelen in order to obtain a nuclear deterrent (this was written in the 90s and set in something like 2002...those books quickly ended up unintentional AH due to the lack of 9/11).

Is this book 'Kilo Class' (http://books.google.com/books/about/Kilo_Class.html?id=w1Dbtb74lNEC), by Patrick Robinson? I remember reading it way back.

[SAVORYapple]

Does Deng Xiaoping shifting to become more politically hardline butterfly his domestic socio-economic stance - that stance which led China to open up? I have the impression (not backed up with research yet, mind) that he adopted a nonconfrontational foreign policy.

.

problem is the hardliners who are bound to crop up over Taiwan's nuke.period.

[LeoXiao]

problem is the hardliners who are bound to crop up over Taiwan's nuke.period.
China doesn't quite work that way, especially with so little time (in 1975 Mao only has one year left) for the post-Mao situation to be changed. The thing is that by that time, all across China everybody knew that more Maoist policies would endanger not only the populace but also the continuing authority of the party itself. It was imperative to enact some sort of reform after Mao's death, and by 1975 it was clear he was near it.

[SAVORYapple]

China doesn't quite work that way, especially with so little time (in 1975 Mao only has one year left) for the post-Mao situation to be changed. The thing is that by that time, all across China everybody knew that more Maoist policies would endanger not only the populace but also the continuing authority of the party itself. It was imperative to enact some sort of reform after Mao's death, and by 1975 it was clear he was near it.

but TAIWAN JUST GOT NUKES!!!!!

[PMN1]

I once read a technothriller where the premise was that the Taiwanese had started a secret nuclear research facility on Kerguelen in order to obtain a nuclear deterrent (this was written in the 90s and set in something like 2002...those books quickly ended up unintentional AH due to the lack of 9/11).

Patrick Robinson's 'Kilo Class'

[Thande]

Patrick Robinson's 'Kilo Class'

Yeah, that's the one.