What's in the future for Chechnya?

[raharris1973]

Is it likely Russia will quit before reintegrating the region? Probably, though not this year.

If not, what happens then?

Chechnya had de facto independence from Russia in 1996 to 1999. Russia invaded in 1999 after Chechen-linked terrorism in Moscow, and more prove-ably, Chechen-based raids into neighboring republics, as well as killings of envoys and a huge cross-border kidnapping business.

So, when the Russians lose this round of the war, will the Chechen border be any better policed?

Will the same problems emerge that happened in 1996 to 1999, resulting in a third Chechen War similar to today's? And maybe 4th and 5th Chechen Wars down the road.

Or, will the Russians just accept in the future that there will always be disorder and aggression coming from across the border, but figure that its just part of nationwide crime problem, and nothing that military force can do anything about? Maybe they just respond in the future with a Hadrian's Wall approach, since invasions didn't work the first two times.

Or, if Russia gets provoked into a third Chechen war based cross-border raids and provocations, will the Russians actually escalate more in the third war than in the 1st and 2nd, to the level of genocide?

[aktarian]

Russia woun't quit Chechnya. there isn't enough Chechens to pull a Grozny-2 again, so similar military defeat isn't possible. Rusia will sit on chechnya which will be part of Russia but special area where certain liberties and rights are suspended. It's small enough so that keeping it down isn't a big problem (specially if you don't care much about collateral casualties), it's out of sight so whatever happens (if it isn't too visible) will be ignored. there will be low-level violence with ocasional big ambush (and regular small ones) and ocasional big terrorist outrage (Beslan, thetre siege....).

World media will cover it same was as Sri Lankan troubles (prior to cease fire). Largely ignore it unless soemthing really big happens.

[Ivan Druzhkov]

Personally, I think that the war in Chechnya is never going to end. The Russians are probably never going to be able to completely pacify the region, (I don't think that we've run out of Chechens yet, and the army itself isn't in Cold-War fighting trim) and if the Russians do pull out, it'll probably be then end of Putin (who got the job by managing the 2nd War) and the Chechens will carry on the way they did during their period of independence in 1996-1999, i.e. kidnapping/murdering Russians and trying to set up a Greater trans-Caucasian Wahabi republic.

[Thande]

I think the only real possible ends to the conflict are 1) Russians commit total genocide on the Chechens and 2) Russia is badly defeated in a war by e.g. China (for lebensraum in Siberia) and is forced to conceded the independence of Chechnya as one of the peace conditions.

Neither is particularly palatable.

[DarkSlavik]

I think the only real possible ends to the conflict are 1) Russians commit total genocide on the Chechens and 2) Russia is badly defeated in a war by e.g. China (for lebensraum in Siberia) and is forced to conceded the independence of Chechnya as one of the peace conditions.

Neither is particularly palatable.

I just can't see China taking Siber ia for Living Space without the other major powers in the world interfearing. And I don't think the United States would like sharing the Bering Straight with China.

[Straha]

Hopefully reintegration into Russia. I happen to be against the idea that EVERY group deserves its own nation. I'm for the imperial model as long as the imperial powers that go in integrate the locals into their society and economically develop their new territories.

[Maku]

Russia will not give up Chechnya. From the Russian point of view it's just not acceptable to allow bits of the federation to split off for fear that other parts (Russian Fed is comprised of more than a dozen regions) will follow suit, both in the Caucusus and the east. Quite a few Russians still resent losing the other former Soviet republics, especially those where large ethnic-Russian populations continue to exist. Allowing the breakup of the USSR is one thing, allowing it to extend to the breakup (or even the perception of breakup) of the Russian Federation is political suicide for any Russian leader.

The other main point is what Russian leader is going to want and independent Chechnya full of radicalised Muslims who hate Russia with a passion after years and years of brutal fighting? The last time Russia pulled its troops out, the radical Chechyn guerilla leaders saw it as an opportunity to carry the Jihad into Daghestan and other neighbouring regions. You'd have a pretty tough job convincing the Russians it wouldn't happen again....mostly because it probably would happen again.

Nope Chechnya stays in the federation whether the locals like it or not. I agree with others that it'll continue to be violent and a general sh#thole for years, probably decades. Fortunately for the Russians the world's caught up in its WAR ON TERROR!!! (tm) and just about anything they do in Chechnya can be explained away as combating those evil Islamic loonies.

[raharris1973]

insurgent over-reach and the maximum dovishness of major nations.

They had their chance to be separate from 1996 to 1999. The Grozny battle and Budyennovsk kidnapping combined with a sense of Yeltsin's incompetence to bring Russia (and the fact that the 1994 war started at the govt's convenience, not a galvaning Pearl Harbor like the apartment bombing and Dagestan raids of 1999) to the point of maximum dovishness.

The Chechens then proceeded to execute insurgent overreach by discrediting the temporary Russian dovishness by their own actions and lack of control over criminal elements.

The 1999 reinvasion, and the fact that the Russians still tolerate being at war in Chechnya illustrate the insurgents overreached.


Other examples of the maximum dovishness - insurgent (or revisionist) overrreach combination include Camp David, Taba, and 2nd intifadeh wars in Israel-Palestine since 2000, the late Carter administration transition to a more hawkish policy and the election of Reagan in the US, and the UK's determined resistance to Argentina in the Falklands.

[raharris1973]

Public opinion in Russia IIRC is going negative fast, especially after Beslan. The citizens are not reserving all their rage onfor the terrorists but directing much of it at the government.

Is the idea that Russia will never give up based on the idea that Putin never will give up and he will make himself President for life in the meantime?

Could/would the Chechnya war continue if Putin ends up out of power one way or the other?

[panzerjay]

in this time of islamic terrorist and govenment induced fear, Russia can make Chechnya its hellbitch for the next 100 years.

[aktarian]

Public opinion in Russia IIRC is going negative fast, especially after Beslan. The citizens are not reserving all their rage onfor the terrorists but directing much of it at the government.

Is the idea that Russia will never give up based on the idea that Putin never will give up and he will make himself President for life in the meantime?

Could/would the Chechnya war continue if Putin ends up out of power one way or the other?

I don't see why should Putin's sucessor quit Chechnya just because he didn't start it. Look at how amny Us presidents and Israeli PMs inherited Vietnam and Lebanon and they didn't quit it.

[Smuz]

The Russians can't pull out with any credibility, and from what I can gather the Chechen national image is built on resistance. It's genocide or a fall from power for Putin.

So far, one-step-from-genocide has worked for him.

[raharris1973]

I'm surprised I heard no one say the Russians would lose.

If I had polled American reporters or pundits, maybe even West European ones, I betcha alot, maybe over 50%, would predict Russian defeat.

Not to say that they really know anything.

[Straha]

Russia pulling out would be a sign of weakness. would the US pull out from hawaii or rhode island?

[aktarian]

I'm surprised I heard no one say the Russians would lose.

If I had polled American reporters or pundits, maybe even West European ones, I betcha alot, maybe over 50%, would predict Russian defeat.

Not to say that they really know anything.

But how can Russians loose? Only way is that they either pull out ala 1996 which makes it look like defeat. And Chechens simply don't have enough people to inflict such defeat as Grozny-2 on them.

So Russians will stay there and it will be same as now. Low level violence but strategicaly same as now.

[raharris1973]

and I think bloodthirsty into military history types like ourselves on this board would think this way, but tons of people especially in America and West Europe, think of Russia as congenitally incompetent, doomed to fail and as having little popular support for government policies. Have you seen this tendency or missed it.

Do any of you guys remember Putin, right after the Beslan massacre, alleging that other nuclear powers (read US) were trying to keep Russia weak and hoping for its defeat in the Caucasus?

I think the US officially ignored this, but I wished the USG, through Condi or Bush, had used the opportunity to play political judo against those groundless comments implying the US supported Chechen terrorists.

Official US should have called in Russian reporters and said, "We don't know where some people are getting their information, but nothing could be further than the truth. We actually want Russia to win this war and reconstruct the Caucasus from its current strife. We oppose the authors of Beslan unequivocally, and no one allied to the likes of Basayaev deserves to win any kind of war, period, end of story. Neither American interests nor our principles lead us to oppose Russian victory in Chechnya. It's that simple."

Of course maybe it would be bad to say anything, because of ticking off Muslims. At the very least it might confuse anti-Americans in Russia and leave them stuttering for a bit.

[Tizoc]

From how the things are looking, I think that Chechnya will end as de facto autonomic state ruled by a Chechen autocrat who pledged himself to Russia (Ramzan Kadyrow)...

[DuQuense]

What's in the future for Chechnya?

I think that the Chechnyan Freedom fighters will end like the IRA of the 1920's has here in 2000's
Increasing Marginalized as conditions inprove, redused to a few big Events every now and then just to keep themselves alive.

[Midgard]

One thing most people don't realize is that troubles in the region were going for at least two centuries before the present times. Wars in the Caucasus are nothing new for Russians, and Russians are not going to pull out unless they are kept so weak elsewhere that they have to keep their core holdings. And even then, independence for Chechnya is not going to happen - the Chechens have already proven what they would do with independence, and other than a few loonies from the House of Saud, they were not able to win any hearts with it.

I'd say Tizoc's scenario is the most likely one - it goes well with Russia's past model of dominating client states and outlying territories, going back to Ivan the Terrible and before him. They'll have a pro-Moscow faithful vassal autocrat in charge, running Chechnya as his private domain, and able to take the public opinion poll if he ends up committing a massacre or two - then, official Moscow could claim lack of knowledge, and, therefore, set him up for the fall if needed.