TL Planning - No 9/11: Effects

[PCSwitaj]

I've developed writter's block while working on `Tis Time To Part, and while I'm still trying to figure out how to move on from where I am stuck I started sketching out an idea for a no 9/11 TL. What I'm looking for are both events and happenings that happened because 9/11 took place and events and happenings that would have taken place had 9/11 been adverted. As a few examples, both wide ranging and small and across a wide field of areas:

Films such as Men in Black II, Lilo and Stich, and The Time Machine would not have been edited or delayed in release, while Jackie Chan's Nosebleed would have at least stood a chance at developement.
American sports, especially MLB, NFL, and college football would not have had their schedueles altered or partially cancelled. Minor league baseball would have had champions decided by playing games instead of records. The Super Bowl in New Orleans would have kept its original logo. Specifically for NFL fans to chew over is the potential that Tom Brady does not becoming the starter for the Patriots.
The Emmys, Grammys, and other award shows would not have been delayed.
Specific TV show episodes, such as The Simpson's "The City of New York vs. Homer Simpson", Hey Arnold!'s "Married", and Cowboy Bebop's "Cowboy Funk" would not have been removed from rotation due to either the use of the Twin Towers or similarities between the attacks on 9/11 and depictions in the shows.
No changes to Microsoft's Flight Simulator
The band My Chemical Romance would not have been founded; lead vocalist and co-founder Gerard Way was working in NYC as an intern for Cartoon Network during the attacks, afterwhich he decided to move from art to music as a way to see the world and live life
Closer to home for me personally, it is possible that my high school history club would have been able to finish the "Civil War Binders", a list of every individual from our county who fought in the Civil War, their fate, and where they are/were burried; as a result of 9/11 and the following fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq we abandoned these efforts to building war memorials to those we lost from the county to go along with simular memorials for WWII, Korea, and Vietnam.
Really at this point I am looking for anything and everything, either grand scale or closer to home. I want to try and depict a realistic post 9/11 world without the 9/11. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

[Guarnasco]

a certain episode of "the lone gunmen" will not be seen as blasphemy...

[Tallest Skil]

a certain episode of "the lone gunmen" will not be seen as someone hearing the truth who shouldn't have and managing to heroically get it out there to warn the people before the government killed him...

Fixed, if you're a conspiracy nut.

[Guarnasco]

Fixed, if you're a conspiracy nut.


I was talking about how certain people gets emotional about stuff, and please do not misquote me, i find it unpolite.

tanks, Guarnasco.

[arlindi193]

also those movies which is set in new york december and after 2001 will have twin tower there

[arlindi193]

skyline of downtown new york in 2004

http://www.lbdassociates.com/salphotos/SAL%20Photos/NYC/nyc%20skyline.jpg

[PiratePartyist]

What about building a third tower later on?

[SergeantHeretic]

I've developed writter's block while working on `Tis Time To Part, and while I'm still trying to figure out how to move on from where I am stuck I started sketching out an idea for a no 9/11 TL. What I'm looking for are both events and happenings that happened because 9/11 took place and events and happenings that would have taken place had 9/11 been adverted. As a few examples, both wide ranging and small and across a wide field of areas:

Films such as Men in Black II, Lilo and Stich, and The Time Machine would not have been edited or delayed in release, while Jackie Chan's Nosebleed would have at least stood a chance at developement.
American sports, especially MLB, NFL, and college football would not have had their schedueles altered or partially cancelled. Minor league baseball would have had champions decided by playing games instead of records. The Super Bowl in New Orleans would have kept its original logo. Specifically for NFL fans to chew over is the potential that Tom Brady does not becoming the starter for the Patriots.
The Emmys, Grammys, and other award shows would not have been delayed.
Specific TV show episodes, such as The Simpson's "The City of New York vs. Homer Simpson", Hey Arnold!'s "Married", and Cowboy Bebop's "Cowboy Funk" would not have been removed from rotation due to either the use of the Twin Towers or similarities between the attacks on 9/11 and depictions in the shows.
No changes to Microsoft's Flight Simulator
The band My Chemical Romance would not have been founded; lead vocalist and co-founder Gerard Way was working in NYC as an intern for Cartoon Network during the attacks, afterwhich he decided to move from art to music as a way to see the world and live life
Closer to home for me personally, it is possible that my high school history club would have been able to finish the "Civil War Binders", a list of every individual from our county who fought in the Civil War, their fate, and where they are/were burried; as a result of 9/11 and the following fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq we abandoned these efforts to building war memorials to those we lost from the county to go along with simular memorials for WWII, Korea, and Vietnam.
Really at this point I am looking for anything and everything, either grand scale or closer to home. I want to try and depict a realistic post 9/11 world without the 9/11. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

The United States will never seriously enter the global war against terrorist cabals resulting in Al Qaida remaining as a serious player. Saddam Hussein and the B'aah party in Iraq will never be deposed, witch means Iran will have it's buckets of crazy Arab fascist neighbor to keep being afraid of and will never have the reasorces to seriously try to build a nuclear device.

The Arab Spring will not happen.

The 2007 revamp of the military will not happen.

The USA PATRIOT act will never be written.

at least 5,000 America Soldiers and 3,000 AMerican and international civilians will still be alive.

[Fabilius]

The United States will never seriously enter the global war against terrorist cabals resulting in Al Qaida remaining as a serious player. Saddam Hussein and the B'aah party in Iraq will never be deposed, witch means Iran will have it's buckets of crazy Arab fascist neighbor to keep being afraid of and will never have the reasorces to seriously try to build a nuclear device.

The Arab Spring will not happen.

The 2007 revamp of the military will not happen.

The USA PATRIOT act will never be written.

at least 5,000 America Soldiers and 3,000 AMerican and international civilians will still be alive.

I object to that. There might still be revolutions in north africa.

[Zacoftheaxes]

Konami had put a lot of effort into Metal Gear Solid 2 and a lot of effort into a cutscene of Arsenal Gear crashing into New York City....just missing the WTC. That was one of things that ended up weakening the game and it really made the ending just babbling about conspiracy theories.

[Brady Kj]

The band My Chemical Romance would not have been founded; lead vocalist and co-founder Gerard Way was working in NYC as an intern for Cartoon Network during the attacks, afterwhich he decided to move from art to music as a way to see the world and live life.
Maybe he would have changed his career soon anyway.

[BlondieBC]

What about building a third tower later on?

Don't really see building a copy of a 30 year old sky scrapper.

[Hyperion]

Psuedo terroritst/disaster movies focusing on non-middle eastern groups, ie movies like Under Seige and Under Seige 2, would probably be made more often.

No war in Afghanistan, and possibly butterflying away the Iraq War, the US Air Force, off the top of my head, would probably end up getting at least a few dozen more F-22 aircraft beyond the 187 they'll end up with IRL. Probably focusing more on conventional and high tech threats like China, North Korea, or the possibility of a resurgent Russia, I could see the F-15C squadron in the UK transitioning to the F-22, along with the two F-15C squadrons on Okinawa, among other squadrons.

In 2003, if/when the spaceshuttle Columbia disaster happens, I could see the Bush Administration and whoever is running the show at 1600 after the 2004 elections possibly pumping a few billion more into NASA compared to OTL. It might not do much for manned missions but they might be able to get one or two other odd unmanned missions off.

The 2000/2001 recession probably wouldn't hurt as bad without the multi billion dollar losses as a direct result of 9/11, what with all of the office workers, office space, and some companies having dozens if not hundres of employees killed. The airline industry would also probably not be hurt financially as much.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flightplan

An obscure reference, but the 2005 movie Flightplan, starring actress Jodie Foster, might not be made, or would probably turn out to have a somewhat different plot.

A main character/bad guy in the movie was a man that was, or claimed to be an Air Marshal. Given that US Federal Air Marshals didn't exist beyond a limited number of agents before 9/11, if the TSA isn't formed or doesn't create the Air Marshal program beyond the token agent numbers of pre 9/11, this would be a plot point to change in this movie.

[JoeMulk]

Bill Maher doesn't go over to HBO as he wont make the comment on politically incorrect that got him canned so politically incorrect will likely keep going as a show.

[SLCer]

Bush is probably a one-term president. I base this on his pre-9/11 approval polls and the fact the economy would have dominated the discussion without any focus on the War on Terrorism or the eventual Iraq War (as the latter would be difficult to justify without a renewed interest in global threats).

We were in a recession from 2001-'04 and the job growth seen in Bush's first term was pretty abysmal. It wasn't until '04, the election year, that we eventually started seeing enough consistent monthly job growth to pull out of the recession. Granted, 9/11 hurt the economy and definitely deepened the recession - but I still think growth would have been anemic enough to hurt Bush politically.

So, I think Bush is very much in the same position his dad found himself in twelve years prior. The economy wouldn't sink him as badly as his dad, but the Democrats I think could have mounted a successful campaign.

Of course, without 9/11 & potentially the subsequent wars, the Democratic Primary probably takes on a vastly different look. Howard Dean, who rose to popularity because of his opposition to the Iraq War, probably doesn't get near the level of support because, in almost every other issue, he'd challenge to separate himself from the other Democrats.

John Kerry probably still runs, but isn't held back by his Iraq War vote, which might mean he is consistently the front-runner for the nomination (he was seen as such at the start, faded and then eventually won when Dean collapsed). Edwards also might have been a more viable option since his youth, plus the lack of being hindered by an Iraq War vote, might play to the American people similarly to Clinton's in '92 and his inexperience wouldn't have been near the concern without two wars.

So, yeah, I think the Democrats would have reclaimed the White House. Bush would have gone down as an average president who didn't rock the boat too much, but didn't do enough to pull America out of the recession. He's certainly not as hated as he would become and his image, like that of his father's, improves over time.

[SergeantHeretic]

I object to that. There might still be revolutions in north africa.

Why would they. The Artab Spring was a direct causualty of the succesful invasion of Iraq. I might not like "Dubya" but credit where it is due, the ouster of Saddam DID exactly what he said it would do.

[metastasis_d]

We could have seen this in May 2002

http://graphicnovel.zachwhalen.net/sites/graphicnovel.zachwhalen.net/files/spiderman%20towers.jpg

[RousseauX]

Why would they. The Artab Spring was a direct causualty of the succesful invasion of Iraq.No it's not

Show me a single leader in the Arab Spring using the fall of Saddam Hussein as a rallying cry in Egypt, Libya, or Tunisia. If it indeed "caused" the Arab Spring from anything other than butterfly effect then logically the fall of Saddam would have being a mainstream topic within the Arab revolutions with lots and lots of discussions on it. If anything, the disaster that was the Iraq occupation helped discredit the idea of overthrowing dictators. The whole "Iraq caused Arab spring" thing is just neoconservative apologism based on a conjecture with no evidence backing it up.

[Peelitebkearns]

Interesting that people think that Bush would be a 1 termer without 9/11. I can understand that assessment-the attacks gave a meaning to his presidency, I know here in the UK we pretty much ignored the guy until that day.

On one hand the economy is likely to improve compared to OTL, which would help Bush in 2004. On the other, didn't Bush receive critisism for his connection toEnron? I don't know much about the scandle, but from the sketchy details I do know, Bush wasn't directly involved in the company's downfall, but he was pretty closely connected to people who were.

I've heard it said that a cold war was starting between the US and China, that could be a possibility hear.

In pop culture, I doubt Green Day resurface in 2004. They're probably better known ITTL for their 1990's work-they may have split up by now. You probably see the likes of The Bloodhound Gang, The Offspring and Limp Biscuit stick around for longer.

The Dixie Chicks have a radically different career I think. I haven't heard it before, but I know Cheryl Crow was about to release a song which refered to flying just after the attacks, that was shelved in OTL.

Here in the UK, there was a pretty interesting Soca musical movement gradually developing before the 9 11 attacks. It seemed to die out afterwards, I'm pretty sure the 2 are loosely connected.

'A Rush Of Blood To The Head' by Coldplay is still released, but it's probably also different-apparently Chris Martin wrote a great deal of the material after 9 11.

I doubt the likes of Kanye West are as popular in a 9 11 free world, he certainly doesn't make 'Jesus Walks' anyhow.

[trekchu]

We could have seen this in May 2002




Cutting that from Spiderman 1 was actually a good idea from a marketing standpoint but if left in would have established the Marvel-verse as one VERY different from ours.


That reminds me. The end of the first season of Fringe. That and me being able to watch "Best of both Worlds" without having to think of 9/11, because the episode was supposed to air on that day....

[SergeantHeretic]

No it's not

Show me a single leader in the Arab Spring using the fall of Saddam Hussein as a rallying cry in Egypt, Libya, or Tunisia. If it indeed "caused" the Arab Spring from anything other than butterfly effect then logically the fall of Saddam would have being a mainstream topic within the Arab revolutions with lots and lots of discussions on it. If anything, the disaster that was the Iraq occupation helped discredit the idea of overthrowing dictators. The whole "Iraq caused Arab spring" thing is just neoconservative apologism based on a conjecture with no evidence backing it up.


I am NOT making neoconservative apologism. I am just observing what I percieve to be a cause, (The ouster of Hussein) and an effect (The overthrow of several Arab tyrannies that, until then had been pretty well entrenched.

[RousseauX]

I am NOT making neoconservative apologism. I am just observing what I percieve to be a cause, (The ouster of Hussein) and an effect (The overthrow of several Arab tyrannies that, until then had been pretty well entrenched.In other words you are making a conjecture on nothing but correlation must equal causation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

[SergeantHeretic]

In other words you are making a conjecture on nothing but correlation must equal causation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

I realize that, but can you show me deffinative alternate cause?

[RousseauX]

I realize that, but can you show me deffinative alternate cause?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Motivations
Numerous factors have led to the protests, including issues such as dictatorship or absolute monarchy, human rights violations, government corruption (demonstrated by Wikileaks diplomatic cables),[132] economic decline, unemployment, extreme poverty, and a number of demographic structural factors,[133] such as a large percentage of educated but dissatisfied youth within the population.[134] Also, some, like Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Zizek attribute the 2009 Iranian protests as one of the reasons behind the Arab Spring.[135] The catalysts for the revolts in all Northern African and Persian Gulf countries have been the concentration of vince in the hands of autocrats in power for decades, insufficient transparency of its redistribution, corruption, and especially the refusal of the youth to accept the status quo.[136] Increasing food prices and global famine rates have also been a significant factor, as they involve threats to food security worldwide and prices that approach levels of the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.[137] Amnesty International singled out Wikileaks' release of US diplomatic cables as a catalyst for the revolts.[138]
In recent decades rising living standards and literacy rates, as well as the increased availability of higher education, have resulted in an improved human development index in the affected countries. The tension between rising aspirations and a lack of government reform may have been a contributing factor in all of the protests.[136][139][140] Many of the Internet-savvy youth of these countries have, increasingly over the years, been viewing autocrats and absolute monarchies as anachronisms. A university professor of Oman, Al-Najma Zidjaly referred to this upheaval as youthquake.[136]
Tunisia and Egypt, the first to witness major uprisings, differ from other North African and Middle Eastern nations such as Algeria and Libya in that they lack significant oil revenue, and were thus unable to make concessions to calm the masses.[136]

Oh come on this is some stupid "I'm right unless you type up on essay explaining a complicated topic that incidentally I can read up on myself if I spend 5 seconds using google thing". The burden of proof doesn't lay on the other person to prove your baseless conjecture wrong when you have no evidence backing it up in the first place.

[SergeantHeretic]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring#Motivations


Oh come on this is some stupid "I'm right unless you type up on essay explaining a complicated topic that incidentally I can read up on myself if I spend 5 seconds using google thing". The burden of proof doesn't lay on the other person to prove your baseless conjecture wrong when you have no evidence backing it up in the first place.

NO, THIS IS,

"I do not know the topic at hand, could you please educate me so that my ignorance can be rectified."

And you could have done that WITHOUT being a smug smarmy jerk.

[RousseauX]

NO, THIS IS,

"I do not know the topic at hand, could you please educate me so that my ignorance can be rectified."

And you could have done that WITHOUT being a smug smarmy jerk.I'm sorry :(

[SergeantHeretic]

I'm sorry :(
Apology accepted.

Note for the future, I call myself a eternal Student of history specifically because there is much I do not know and am willing to learn. I am very aware of my own ignorance on many subjects and am eager for that condition to be rectified.

[Hadley]

Cutting that from Spiderman 1 was actually a good idea from a marketing standpoint but if left in would have established the Marvel-verse as one VERY different from ours.
.

Actually, i think its been clarified that that scene was just made for the trailer (since it couldnt really fit anywhere in the film proper).

[Hyperion]

One thing to consider.

Even if 9/11, the Afghan War, and possibly even the Iraq War are all butterflied away, the US and British would still be conducting Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch over Iraq, hitting air defense systems, radar and SAM sites, occasionally engaging the odd Iraqi MiG or Mirage, and occasionally conducting the odd heavy strike on a command and control target.

While the Iraqi defenses may have not been that great, if this low intensity No-Fly Zone conflict continues well beyond 2003, what are the odds that at some point an Iraqi SAM site operator, or even the odd fighter pilot, might get lucky and shoot down a US or British aircraft, either capturing or killing the pilot(s).

[Zacoftheaxes]

One thing to consider.

Even if 9/11, the Afghan War, and possibly even the Iraq War are all butterflied away, the US and British would still be conducting Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch over Iraq, hitting air defense systems, radar and SAM sites, occasionally engaging the odd Iraqi MiG or Mirage, and occasionally conducting the odd heavy strike on a command and control target.

While the Iraqi defenses may have not been that great, if this low intensity No-Fly Zone conflict continues well beyond 2003, what are the odds that at some point an Iraqi SAM site operator, or even the odd fighter pilot, might get lucky and shoot down a US or British aircraft, either capturing or killing the pilot(s).

If Arab Spring happens in this timeline (A whole decade of butterflies to play with here), I guess that means we can see UN involvement in both Libya and Iraq.

[JoeMulk]

Bush is probably a one-term president. I base this on his pre-9/11 approval polls and the fact the economy would have dominated the discussion without any focus on the War on Terrorism or the eventual Iraq War (as the latter would be difficult to justify without a renewed interest in global threats).

Of course, without 9/11 & potentially the subsequent wars, the Democratic Primary probably takes on a vastly different look. Howard Dean, who rose to popularity because of his opposition to the Iraq War, probably doesn't get near the level of support because, in almost every other issue, he'd challenge to separate himself from the other Democrats.


In peacetime though there wouldn't be much appeal for Kerry either so maybe the Democrats nominate John Edwards or Dick Gephart since both would have had an economically populist message and probably would have won.

[Mr_ Bondoc]

One thing that was taking place, was that many people felt that there was a Second Cold War developing between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Just remember that there had been flareups after a U.S. reconnaisance flight was captured by Chinese PLA forces. You had tensions mounting between the U.S. and China over North Korea...

[SergeantHeretic]

If Arab Spring happens in this timeline (A whole decade of butterflies to play with here), I guess that means we can see UN involvement in both Libya and Iraq.

Hmmm that might be interesting. Say does anyone out there have any info on what/how that might be ouched off? I am sorry, but I don't know how that would get kicked off.

[oshron]

do you mean the arab spring itself or UN intervention?

[Zacoftheaxes]

Hmmm that might be interesting. Say does anyone out there have any info on what/how that might be ouched off? I am sorry, but I don't know how that would get kicked off.

There's a shit ton of butterflies. It was a lot of little things that got fired off by one tiny event. That's how most revolution breaks out. The problem is some of this is going to be lost. Less of a focus on Islamic extremism in everyone's minds because there was no devastating reminder that they exist.

Arab Spring was moderate Muslims making a voice for themselves and refusing to accept the secular dictators or the Muslim extremists.

Wikileaks also played a role in getting things started in North Africa. There were also the 2009 Iranian protests which pretty much showed every dictator the basics for being an asshole in the digital age.

There's going to eventually be a rise up against these dictators, but it may be delayed or on a smaller scale.

[SergeantHeretic]

There's a shit ton of butterflies. It was a lot of little things that got fired off by one tiny event. That's how most revolution breaks out. The problem is some of this is going to be lost. Less of a focus on Islamic extremism in everyone's minds because there was no devastating reminder that they exist.

Arab Spring was moderate Muslims making a voice for themselves and refusing to accept the secular dictators or the Muslim extremists.

Wikileaks also played a role in getting things started in North Africa. There were also the 2009 Iranian protests which pretty much showed every dictator the basics for being an asshole in the digital age.

There's going to eventually be a rise up against these dictators, but it may be delayed or on a smaller scale.

O.K., I can see that, and I can also see it being delayed by a general lack of extreme cassus belli.