Russian Pacific

[The Kiat]

Had the Russian better established themselves in the Northern Pacific better, such as stronger in Alaska, and maybe in Kauai, could they maintain an island empire? More over, what would become of Japan if the Russian expanded into the Pacific in the early 19th Century? Would they be the ones to force Japan open to trade, or would they just take Hokkaido and vassalize the rest of the islands? What other islands would they take?

[Falastur]

I don't think they could, no. Unlike the other empires emanating from Europe, the Russian empire's expansion phase was thousands ofi miles ahead of the "consolidation phase" which was the waves of settlers populating the new territories. Russia was pretty good at sending explorers out to claim land, build forts, sign treaties etc decades before they could properly take advantage of them but it didn't have unlimited explorers or resources, and while it had a small fleet it had very little in the way of a military basis to protect its assets, and the more assets, the more overextended their poor fleet is. Further, I would question whether they would see financial benefit in claiming the piddly little islands of the north pacific that they would need to access the south pacific, and most of all I see this course of action rapidly resulting in the British on particular moving fleets and making counter claims designed to cut off and checkmate the Russian landgrabbing. Hawai'i was a one-off and OTL the Russians showed as much by giving up on their fort fairly swiftly.

[The Kiat]

Then what was Russia's aim in the Russo-Japanese War? Aside from Manchuria.

[Plumber]

Then what was Russia's aim in the Russo-Japanese War? Aside from Manchuria.
It was Korea.
Also, it's possible but a bit difficult. Just because Russia is facing hard odds doesn't mean that a Tsar interested in the Pacific won't try.

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Then what was Russia's aim in the Russo-Japanese War? Aside from Manchuria.

Defending her Far Eastern possessions and limiting Japan's influence in Korea.

[The Kiat]

It was Korea.
Also, it's possible but a bit difficult. Just because Russia is facing hard odds doesn't mean that a Tsar interested in the Pacific won't try.

When I partitioned Hawaii, I had the Russian-American Company in Kauai. Would that spark enough interest in the Pacific from an OTL Tsar? Sandalwood from the island was valued by the Chinese, and could make additional profits for the Company. Not sure how much that'd benefit the Tsar.

Concerning Japan: I figured that since Russia picked away at Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, Turkey, Central Asia, China and pretty much all of its neighbors, why would it not do the same against Japan. Aside from the fact that it took a better part of the year to get a message across Siberia.

[RGB]

...and while it had a small fleet it had very little in the way of a military basis to protect its assets, and the more assets, the more overextended their poor fleet is...

Actually, Russia had the world's third-largest and one of the most successful navies for most of its Imperial existance and never dropped out of the top 6.

The real issue is correctly identified by you later on: lack of good harbours with easy Blue-Sea access. A much bigger issue is a lack of a serious merchant marine, but it was far from alone in that respect. The two combined produced a strange situation of the Russians having a navy that constantly alternated between superb and dilapidated, and no real ongoing mission to justify its existance.

[The Kiat]

Actually, Russia had the world's third-largest and one of the most successful navies for most of its Imperial existance and never dropped out of the top 6.

The real issue is correctly identified by you later on: lack of good harbours with easy Blue-Sea access. A much bigger issue is a lack of a serious merchant marine, but it was far from alone in that respect. The two combined produced a strange situation of the Russians having a navy that constantly alternated between superb and dilapidated, and no real ongoing mission to justify its existance.

Wouldn't overseas colonies give it a little bit of a mission? As for harbors, surely there has to be a decent one somewhere on their Pacific Coast. How about taking the area where Vladivostok was built a couple of decades earlier than OTL?

[Falastur]

Actually, Russia had the world's third-largest and one of the most successful navies for most of its Imperial existance and never dropped out of the top 6.

Allow me to amend to what I should have said - and meant to say, but put badly. It had a small fleet in the Pacific. With the best will in the world, it was never going to sail it's Black Sea or Baltic Fleets to defend island Pacific colonies...

[ChucK Y]

Wouldn't overseas colonies give it a little bit of a mission? As for harbors, surely there has to be a decent one somewhere on their Pacific Coast. How about taking the area where Vladivostok was built a couple of decades earlier than OTL?

Vladivostok was only usable during the summer months. Gaining a warm-water port was one of their goals in the Russo-Japanese War.

[The Kiat]

Vladivostok was only usable during the summer months. Gaining a warm-water port was one of their goals in the Russo-Japanese War.

It's better than nothing. A good way to get around the winter problem is not to be in port during the winter.

What about a naval base in Japan, say if the Russians were the ones who decided to force open their doors. I would suggest Sapporo, except it wasn't even there around 1850. Too bad, since I was thinking the Russians were going to take Hokkaido. Wasn't part of Sapporo's reason for existing to secure the island before the Russians moved in? Maybe even Hakodate could serve as a warm-water port on the Pacific. Kind of hard on communications in winter though.

[David S Poepoe]

Vladivostok was only usable during the summer months. Gaining a warm-water port was one of their goals in the Russo-Japanese War.

Russian use of Port Arthur was probably the closest it got to an all year port in the Far East. I think you would have to consider continued Russian interest in the Oregon Territory and California, but even then they are very far from European Russia.

[kasumigenx]

Russian use of Port Arthur was probably the closest it got to an all year port in the Far East. I think you would have to consider continued Russian interest in the Oregon Territory and California, but even then they are very far from European Russia.
But Russian California and Oregon will most likely result in Ruso-Mexican war. right?

[Grey Wolf]

Concerning Japan: I figured that since Russia picked away at Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, Turkey, Central Asia, China and pretty much all of its neighbors, why would it not do the same against Japan. Aside from the fact that it took a better part of the year to get a message across Siberia.

Well, in a sense they did with the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin, which the Japanese considered theirs just as much as the Russians did.

To address some other points:-

The Russian American Company would have established its interests in California at the time when it was a) Spanish and b) very sparsely settled, so it wopuld be the Spanish they would be dealing with, not the Mexicans

The bloke who was the power house of the Company died whilst on his way back (IIRC) from visiting the Tsar to get additional backing, and his death basically demised the company's long-term future. Had he lived...

Whilst the distances involved are huge, that in itself is not an unsolvable problem, since they were expected to be huge and people dealt with them.

Russia DOES have ports in the Far East, developing Petropavlosk in Kamchatka, and also smaller ones like Ayan in the Sea of Okhotsk. Obviously these freeze in Winter, but are usable at other times.

A lot of European navies developed the practice of keeping squadrons of their ships in third-party ports - see Chemulpo in Korea in 1904 when the Variag and Korietz were sunk, and look who else is in the harbour; Shanghai was also another popular base. The Italian and Austrian Pacific squadrons were ENTIRELY based in third-party ports.

Russia was quite happy to sail its fleet where-ever it was NEEDED - look at Seniavin in the Napoleonic Wars sailing the Baltic fleet into the Med and back again. The question is one of NEED, and of that need eclipsing other needs.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[Falastur]

Russia was quite happy to sail its fleet where-ever it was NEEDED - look at Seniavin in the Napoleonic Wars sailing the Baltic fleet into the Med and back again. The question is one of NEED, and of that need eclipsing other needs.

Sending your Baltic Fleet to the Med because the Black Sea Fleet is unable to traverse the Bosphorus is totally different from sending it 10x further to the Pacific. For a start, a Europe-based fleet sailing to the Pacific would turn up too late to even accomplish anything.

[The Kiat]

Sending your Baltic Fleet to the Med because the Black Sea Fleet is unable to traverse the Bosphorus is totally different from sending it 10x further to the Pacific. For a start, a Europe-based fleet sailing to the Pacific would turn up too late to even accomplish anything.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Russians send their fleet halfway around the world in 1904, only to have it destroyed the next year?

[Color-Copycat]

They sent their Baltic fleet down the coast of Africa, 'round Cape of Good Hope, then all the way up the Pacific Rim, only to meet their demise at the Tsushima Straits in a decisive battle often referred to as the "Modern Trafalgar". That's how bad it was for the Russians.

[David S Poepoe]

But Russian California and Oregon will most likely result in Ruso-Mexican war. right?

Not necessarily - actually not at all. Mexico has few forces in the area. California was isolated from Mexico proper by terrain and trade and people moved predominately by sea and even there Mexico had few forces. Mexico inherited its claims to the Pacific Northwest from Spain but had no real way to keep it.

[Grey Wolf]

Sending your Baltic Fleet to the Med because the Black Sea Fleet is unable to traverse the Bosphorus is totally different from sending it 10x further to the Pacific. For a start, a Europe-based fleet sailing to the Pacific would turn up too late to even accomplish anything.

The Russians always kept some sailing ships on station in the Far East, and they had quite a famed scientific expedition in the Southern Pacific. They would certainly be capable of basing a stronger squadron in those wars if they saw the need. I get your point about not sending it out all in one go in response to an emergency, but I don't think the original poster had that in mind.

Regarding the steam fleet, the Russians used the Baltic fleet to build up their Pacific Squadron and this worked perfectly well. The question of Rozhestvensky is a red herring because that was the reserve fleet plus all the new ships all thrown together and sent on a voyage in wartime during which they could not base out of neutral ports.

If Russia WANTS to it can permanently base ships of the line out of Petropavlosk.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[dgharis]

The real problem is one of supply; prior to the construction of the Trans-Siberian all supply has to come by sea or from local resources. The combination of the two isn't going to be enough to sustain an empire-building effort literally half a world away.

What is required is:

1) A larger population base. A few hundred explorers, traders, and hunters is not going to do it; we need tens of thousands of people.

2) A large food producing area. The Hawaiian Islands are too small, really, to support a much larger population than they already have, and Siberia and Alaska are too far north to have a sufficiently long growing season.

3) Reliable communication with European Russia. If this is lacking the Russian Pacific possessions will be effectively isolated. Even if they do develop into an empire that empire will only nominally be part of the Russian Empire; it might well become independent if its interests diverge sufficiently from Russia's.

[Grey Wolf]

2) A large food producing area. The Hawaiian Islands are too small, really, to support a much larger population than they already have, and Siberia and Alaska are too far north to have a sufficiently long growing season.

Have you ever read Cloud Atlas? Its a novel but gives a vivid picture of how vibrant Pacific trade was, and IIRC Honolulu was at the hub of this

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[Max Sinister]

In my Chaos TL, Russia is stronger in North Atlantis / America. Thanks to the facts that Siberia is independent and better developed, and with a bigger population base; also, they conquered Korea and Hokkaido / Ezo. They face a different problem, however: They start to settle America from the west, so they soon face the Rockies, or deserts, or both. That's a handicap. Would Russian settlers east of the Rockies declare their independence? Like members of some Orthodox sect?

And: How would the Russians do in the jungles of Hawaii, or the Andes of the Inca? Hard to tell - OTOH these areas aren't much like England or Castille either.

[The Kiat]

What is required is:

1) A larger population base. A few hundred explorers, traders, and hunters is not going to do it; we need tens of thousands of people.

2) A large food producing area. The Hawaiian Islands are too small, really, to support a much larger population than they already have, and Siberia and Alaska are too far north to have a sufficiently long growing season.

3) Reliable communication with European Russia. If this is lacking the Russian Pacific possessions will be effectively isolated. Even if they do develop into an empire that empire will only nominally be part of the Russian Empire; it might well become independent if its interests diverge sufficiently from Russia's.

Number 1 is easily solved; the Tsar can start exiling people to the Far East instead of Siberia. Put it in his head that there's gold on them there coasts. If the Soviets were around a century earlier (no, I'm not even considering this preposterous idea), it would be even easier to develop/settle the land.

[dgharis]

Have you ever read Cloud Atlas? Its a novel but gives a vivid picture of how vibrant Pacific trade was, and IIRC Honolulu was at the hub of this

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

No, I haven't, but I'll certainly see if I can find a copy; if you recommend it it's worth reading in my estimation.

I am aware of just how much trade was being conducted in the area, although the specifics would depend on just what period we're talking about. The OP isn't quite clear on just when this occurs, hint, hint.

Unless the Russo-Pacific Empire is fully integrated into this trade it's going to have trouble maintaining a large enough population to remain viable. Fortunately that isn't hard to do; both Siberia and Alaska have abundant natural resources to exploit, such as furs, timber, and minerals.

[dgharis]

Max Sinister: North Atlantis?

[dgharis]

Number 1 is easily solved; the Tsar can start exiling people to the Far East instead of Siberia. Put it in his head that there's gold on them there coasts. If the Soviets were around a century earlier (no, I'm not even considering this preposterous idea), it would be even easier to develop/settle the land.

Not going to happen; those people are needed just as much in Siberia, and it's cheaper to send them there than all the way to the Pacific. What we need is a gold rush or equivalent event. Send some fool to the Yukon for some reason and have him stumble on the gold there ...

[The Kiat]

Gold in Alaska... only problem there (it's still a workable idea) that I can see is that everybody and their uncle is going to rush there, and not leave much room for the Russians. The Russians would have to fortify the area once they learn about the gold.

[RGB]

A larger population base. A few hundred explorers, traders, and hunters is not going to do it; we need tens of thousands of people.

While it wouldn't in all likelihood have been decisive, Petersburg repeatedly vetoed attempts at buying up serfs to use as settlers, both in the Far East, but also in the Fort Ross colony.

[Shevek23]

Then what was Russia's aim in the Russo-Japanese War? Aside from Manchuria.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Russians send their fleet halfway around the world in 1904, only to have it destroyed the next year?

You keep mentioning 1904. That's obviously a very different question since while by then the Russians could clearly maintain considerable force on the Pacific, there were no more easy pickings for a really profitable base there, except what they already had overland in Siberia. If they'd have hung on to Alaska, well that's about equivalent to their options in Siberia (Alaska has oil? Gold? Guess what, so does Siberia!) and hanging on there is again a POD long before 1904. It seems to me what you'd want would be either a much earlier POD as your choice of forum indicates, where the capabilities of the steam dreadnoughts of 1904 and what logistic support they could provide overland in their eastern ports by then are irrelevant, or you are asking the much tougher question of how well could they muscle in on the existing hegemonies of the Pacific in the early 20th century.

Or possibly a mid-to-late 19th century question, WI instead of selling Alaska (which they did OTL because they wanted money fast because they didn't have a lot of it) they invested a lot more (that they didn't think would be cost-effective OTL) in reinforcing their bases in the Maritime province and Alaska and went a-Viking for warmer acquisitions to the south, before it was all pre-empted by strong European powers? Say they decided to beat Japan to the punch in Taiwan or capitalize on Spanish troubles in the Philippines?

Again, it would be very costly to develop their North Pacific holdings to sustain such efforts. I'm not sure if Juneau or Sitka can in any sense qualify as winter open-water ports, I rather doubt it. So again their problem is either to secure something more suitable along the north Asian coast (and somehow supply it overland, or even develop it into a working shipyard) thus running straight into trouble with not only Japan but the British, neither of whom would want them pre-empting Korea or Chinese ports, and all that as a clear preliminary to challenging these same powers and yet others in the more tropical zones of the Pacific, not to mention the USA that would be feeling its oats around this post-Civil War era. Or send an expedition clear around the world from the Baltic or Black Sea, through the gauntlet of all their enemies and allies of potential enemies, right past Spain either way (a likely target of their ambitions). Well before 1900 at least the prevailing standard would not be steamships and so they wouldn't face the problems their Black Fleet did in getting coal on the way, but they'd be that much slower and sailing past all sorts of choke points. Such as around the Cape of Good Hope past British squadrons, or risking their life and limb across the straits of South America where the British also were swarming, or past Singapore not to mention the entire Indian Ocean just waiting for the British to intercept them there...

Basically if you can see a way the British might favor such an enterprise instead of opposing it, maybe then they'd only be facing the sheer daunting cost of sending enough of an expedition to win something worth winning and holding by such roundabout ways, so far out of communication with their capital. But I don't see it.

If they can beef up their holdings on the Northwest Pacific enough to launch such expeditions, they'd probably prefer to concentrate on using such good logistics to take more of North China and/or Korea overland instead. And while I can think of some warm Pacific targets they might then want to go after--Hawaii, Taiwan, the Philippines--all would be hotly contested by other powers with more established power in the region--Britain foremost, but also Japan and the USA, and the longer they delay the more solid their claims get.

Trying to go for it earlier, you get the objections others have raised. 1904 just doesn't seem relevant, except as a demonstration that even then Russian power on the high seas in the Pacific was marginal and second-rate, however strong they might have been in European waters. It's just so difficult to project sufficient logistics overland to support such adventures from a Pacific base or to send it the long way round without having first acquired strong bases farther west.

Hmn, maybe if the Russians early on took and held the South American straits, being better able to endure the climate there than anyone else but say Norwegians? But the British were keen on keeping that passage open for themselves from quite early on; again we'd want an unlikely and long-lasting Anglo-Russian alliance.

Or if you like, totally ignore the question of the advantage their holdings on the Siberian coast give them initially, and ask whether the Russians could have been players in the Atlantic-based age of sail conquests on the high seas, getting bases like the South American passage or South Africa--the latter would then require yet more acquisitions in the Indian Ocean to secure a route to the Pacific, whereas straight out from Tierra Del Fuego to Pacific plums is a long open ocean passage. But maybe the Russians get these the same way England, France, the Dutch got theirs? They are still likely to lose out to Britain in the long run, but maybe they can first acquire something worth hanging on to in the southern Pacific and then switch over to keeping contact via the Siberian ports?

I guess then they would hang on to Alaska even if it were unprofitable in itself, to shield their Siberian bases and access to their valuable Pacific colony.

So, focus on the 16th and early 17th century and ask how plausible was a strong Russian Atlantic navy and how much Russia had in the way of colonizing potential, and how likely they were to get the alliance of one of the major maritime powers of that period. Say, they help the Dutch sustain themselves (but I think OTL they tended to ally with France in this time frame) or team up with the French to collectively hold the balance against Britain, and knowing they are reaching the North Pacific overland let themselves be steered by the French into taking their chances on finding or grabbing something in the Pacific via the South American/Antarctic straits. Or somehow throw their lot in with the British and are awarded a shot at these prizes?

[The Kiat]

(Alaska has oil? Gold? Guess what, so does Siberia!)

Ah, yes the Siberian gold mines, the coldest place on Earth this side of Antarctica. Going to have to wait until technology is developed that can allow the miners to function without freezing solid. What's the summer temperature; about ten degrees above freezing? Yeah, I know, Alaska's not a whole lot better.

[Shevek23]

To more tightly define the "window," I don't think the Russians had any serious presence on any seas until toward the end of the reign of Peter the Great, so that's mid-18th century. And that was St. Petersburg on the Baltic, they'd have to run a gauntlet of Swedish, Danish, and British power unless they had the alliance of Britain, whereas I think they'd have been most likely to be French allies. I don't know when they could plausibly develop their northern (Murmansk, Archangel) ports to come round Norway and through British power in the North Sea. The Black Sea--I don't think they had anything on its shores until late in this same period and they'd have the Ottomans to get past; they never did secure the passage from there into the Med though they certainly did manage to force their way through on occasion. If they managed to do better there they'd probably bog down duelling the British in the eastern Med; going on from there to get past Spain or taking Egypt to secure a passage into the Indian Ocean that way (having to either build the Suez canal or build a whole new fleet on the Red Sea) seems most unlikely and would result in their first focusing on more Middle Eastern holdings that would bog them down.

So it seems rather impossible to me unless you can have a scenario where the French in alliance with them are strong enough to open up the passage past Denmark. And then what? If they can get into the Pacific from the south early enough they might find Hawaii and keep it secret, build up there and, motivated by this holding, develop their Siberian ports enough to keep that passage open; from there maybe move in on Taiwan and eventually perhaps the Philippines while further securing their northern holdings. But expanding Alaska southward would mean sharper and sharper collisions with both Britain and the USA not to mention Spain/Mexico.

That's the best I can do and that first step, opening up a passage from the Baltic, seems a lulu to me. But I don't see a more vigorous development of the Siberian ports as a first step as being reasonable either; OTL it's pretty amazing they managed what they did there and as I say more success in that direction would seem likelier to result in conquests in the north Chinese sphere and possibly Japan instead. With what seapower they have based there being focused on defense rather than farther ventures southward.

[MarshalBraginsky]

To more tightly define the "window," I don't think the Russians had any serious presence on any seas until toward the end of the reign of Peter the Great, so that's mid-18th century. And that was St. Petersburg on the Baltic, they'd have to run a gauntlet of Swedish, Danish, and British power unless they had the alliance of Britain, whereas I think they'd have been most likely to be French allies. I don't know when they could plausibly develop their northern (Murmansk, Archangel) ports to come round Norway and through British power in the North Sea. The Black Sea--I don't think they had anything on its shores until late in this same period and they'd have the Ottomans to get past; they never did secure the passage from there into the Med though they certainly did manage to force their way through on occasion. If they managed to do better there they'd probably bog down duelling the British in the eastern Med; going on from there to get past Spain or taking Egypt to secure a passage into the Indian Ocean that way (having to either build the Suez canal or build a whole new fleet on the Red Sea) seems most unlikely and would result in their first focusing on more Middle Eastern holdings that would bog them down.

So it seems rather impossible to me unless you can have a scenario where the French in alliance with them are strong enough to open up the passage past Denmark. And then what? If they can get into the Pacific from the south early enough they might find Hawaii and keep it secret, build up there and, motivated by this holding, develop their Siberian ports enough to keep that passage open; from there maybe move in on Taiwan and eventually perhaps the Philippines while further securing their northern holdings. But expanding Alaska southward would mean sharper and sharper collisions with both Britain and the USA not to mention Spain/Mexico.

That's the best I can do and that first step, opening up a passage from the Baltic, seems a lulu to me. But I don't see a more vigorous development of the Siberian ports as a first step as being reasonable either; OTL it's pretty amazing they managed what they did there and as I say more success in that direction would seem likelier to result in conquests in the north Chinese sphere and possibly Japan instead. With what seapower they have based there being focused on defense rather than farther ventures southward.

Come to think of it, I was actually working on a TL where Russia does get the Philippines. However, in order for Russia to actually get a colony in the Pacific, I had to make sure it was completely isolated in Europe. Which means a stronger, more powerful Swedish Empire and a Poland that is united with Hungary. I still have to redo the entire thread in order to make it work, considering that I could get some of the things I've written from one of my ASB threads and move it back into the other thread. Of course, I had someone who did a map for me. Realistically, Russia does have to develop its naval capabilities a hell lot faster, and I mean Petrine-style fast. A Russia looking towards the Pacific would have butterflied several conflicts like the Russo-Turkish Wars that resulted in the Balkans falling into Russia's sphere. In the end, I also had a crazy idea about Russia trying its luck on conquering parts or all of Australia.

[The Kiat]

Ok, let's see how this works. I expect it to be torn to pieces and nitpicked to death.

1) Pacific Trade

Russian presence in the northern Pacific dates back to the Second Kamchatka Expedition, with the first landings in Alaska taking place in 1741. Fur trappers followed afterwards. Rather than doing the work of capturing the abundant marine life, the Russians forced the small native populations to do all the work for them. Along with enslavement, the Russians brought new diseases that reduced the Aleut population. Early colonies were not as profitable as other European ventures in the Arctic, but the Russians refused to give up their holdings. In 1799, the Russian-American Company was formed. In exchange for a monopoly on the Alaskan fur trade, the Tsar desired an expansion of the colony.

The Russian-American Company expanded southward and eastward, down the Canadian coast. In 1807, they penetrated the Columbia River. In the following year, the Company established Fort Ross just north of Drake’s Bay, in Spanish California. This brought them into conflict with Spain, who could do little to stop the Russians. In the years following the establishment of Fort Ross, Spain found itself in war against Napoleon, as was as against its colonial possessions. When Mexico gained independence, it could do little against Fort Ross. The colonists came from Russia’s various nationalities, and thrived until 1831, when Mexico ejected the two thousand colonists from their soil.

Further in the Pacific, the Russian-American Company signed an agreement with the Kingdom of Kauai. The Kauaians thought they gained an ally, and the Russians a new subject. Along with whaling and sealing stations, which were also established on Midway and Wake, the island supported a mildly profitable Sandalwood trade. The trees had little value to the Russians, but the Chinese produced incense from Sandalwood. Fur from Alaska and wood from Kauai soon found its way into Chinese markets. Increases in Pacific trade prompted the Russian Empire to establish a stronger naval presence in the Pacific.

The Russian Navy looked for a place to establish themselves in the Far East. The largest obstacle for the Navy, as well as the Russian-American Company, was to have a year-round port. The Russian Far East had ports, all were closed during the winter. The long standing dream of a warm water port prompted the Russians to first look at China. China was too large to conquer, and proved unwilling to negotiate for a large Russian military presence in their borders. The Manchu Dynasty did not object much to Russian ships resupplying, as well as offloading valuable goods. Other year-round harbors existed in the region. When China would not make a deal, the Russians looked eastward at the isolated Kingdom of Nihon, especially the sparsely populated island of Hokkaido.

[Kooluk Swordsman]

I don't see it happening. Russia had the huge expanses of Siberia and Alaska to worry about, not to mention Central Asia. Why go into the Pacific, a place where the Russian Navy could get thoroughly trashed by the British, Japanese, and Americans?

[The Kiat]

I don't see it happening. Russia had the huge expanses of Siberia and Alaska to worry about, not to mention Central Asia. Why go into the Pacific, a place where the Russian Navy could get thoroughly trashed by the British, Japanese, and Americans?

You mean by the British and maybe the Americans. The Japanese won't be an issue in this project. As for why: why not? This is an offshoot of the Hawaii Partitioned project, where the Russians had a protectorate (later outright colony) over Kauai. If they already had Siberia, then why bother going to Alaska?

[Russian]

Russia had great problems with protecting and keeping its' Far East coast. It is a naked truth, the Russian-Japanesse war proved that fact.

You must realise that Russian roads are not roads, they are disaster.
Even nowdays if you went by car from central Russia to the Far East - that would be achievement to be proud of, some act of bravery. And we are speaking about doing it in summer:D.

The zar who got rid of Alaska was a very sober and clear-sighted polititian. It was like having a fat cow fastened to a stick feeding on a deserted seaside. It was an invitation to steal it, provocation pure and simple.

So, I do not want to hurt anyone's feelings but talks about Russian Pacific is ASB. Actually I couldnot think of any possible POD to change it even in 15-18 centuries AD.

You see, in 1917-1920 there was a separatist 'Russian Far-Eastern republic' over there. And russians are not very keen on splitting up by their nature, you know. But tHE Far East is too far away from mother Russia.
So it was overextended as it was. It was too dangerous to stretch the Empire even further

[The Kiat]

So it was overextended as it was. It was too dangerous to stretch the Empire even further

This whole Russian Pacific thing sprang off from the Hawaii Partitioned thing, with the Russian-American Company, and later the Russian government, taking control of the Kingdom of Kauai. I'm just musing how that, and a stronger hold in North America, could affect the Russian Far East.

Besides, even though Russia had all that empty land, they still nickled-and-dimed the Ottomans, Poles, Central Asians, tried to do it with China, to death. I've always had the impression that Tsarist Russia wouldn't even be satisfied with the whole planet. So I think they would try to gobble up Hokkaido if they could.

Oh, and I know about the Russian roads (or lack there of). I remember a journal/book written by a bloke who crossed Russia. He had real fun trying to get from the Pacific just to Yakutsk.

[Russian]

This whole Russian Pacific thing sprang off from the Hawaii Partitioned thing, with the Russian-American Company, and later the Russian government, taking control of the Kingdom of Kauai. This Kauai thing seems a bit dramatized to me. It was just a funny incident. Someone got quite unrealistic in the process, I guess.

I've always had the impression that Tsarist Russia wouldn't even be satisfied with the whole planet.That's it. It's human nature.

So I think they would try to gobble up Hokkaido if they could.If you had been a Russian zar in that time would you have gobbled Hokkaido?
I guess you wouldn't. Because that would have been unwise.

And the Russian zar was not that unwise.
To get something that you couldn't protect and keep is a bit dumb ain't it?

[The Kiat]

If you had been a Russian zar in that time would you have gobbled Hokkaido? I guess you wouldn't. Because that would have been unwise.

Actually, I would want it. Whether I could hold it or not was another matter. The reason I would want it, aside from the year-round port, when I look at a map, Hokkaido looks like a potential chokehold on Russian ports on the Pacific Coast. Anyone with bases there could sail out and intercept ships. That, along with the Kurils, could really put a cramp on access to the sea. After the 20th Century, bombers could fly out from there and really cause mayhem. If you can't take the island outright, then controlling Japan as a puppet or vassal would be the next best thing in securing that frontier. At least until the Romanovs are overthrown (by the Republicans or the Reds or whomever).

I'm just looking at it from a strategic standpoint. And, what you control can't hurt you (much).

[Grey Wolf]

Ironically, the fact that its bloody difficult to get there by road would be a great reason to increase the sail fleet there. It could then be like the East India Company, sending out ships and getting them back. It would not be too onerous to use this route to boost settlement (people were used to having to stay aboard ship for ever to get anywhere, just read Wolseley's memoirs) and for constant replenishment of ships of the line. The Pacific scientific voyages had to come from the Baltic originally, so it would just be an extension of that.

Its also not inconsequential that the major straits, islands and rivers in this area are all named after admirals and the commanders of naval expeditions.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[dgharis]

Ironically, the fact that its bloody difficult to get there by road would be a great reason to increase the sail fleet there. It could then be like the East India Company, sending out ships and getting them back. It would not be too onerous to use this route to boost settlement (people were used to having to stay aboard ship for ever to get anywhere, just read Wolseley's memoirs) and for constant replenishment of ships of the line. The Pacific scientific voyages had to come from the Baltic originally, so it would just be an extension of that.

Its also not inconsequential that the major straits, islands and rivers in this area are all named after admirals and the commanders of naval expeditions.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The result will be the EIC writ large. With home and the Tsar literally half a world away they will be on their own and relying on their own resources. The resulting empire will be Russian in name only; in practice it will be very much independent. Oh, they will be careful not to incur the Tsar's wrath, lest he send punitive expeditions after them, but they will pursue their own ends with their own means.

The Russian Empire is fundamentally an autocratic semifeudal land power. The Russian-Pacific empire will be an oligarchic mercantilist maritime power, as different from its parent as a whale from a lion. The only things they have in common will be language and religion, and those will diverge in time as well.

BTW, thanks for recommending Cloud Atlas; a most enjoyable read.

[Russian]

Whether I could hold it or not was another matter...
...And, what you control can't hurt you (much).

I guess I got your point: 'Easy come - easy go!'
The zar gets Hokkaido and if things go wrong he just let it go, loose it, saying something like this: "Ups, it's not my day":)

But you do not realize that this kind of scenario is unacceptable for the zar. At least very much undesirable.

In the previous posts you mentioned Russia's zar desire to gobble as much as possible. That's quite correct.
But there is something else in Russian imperialism not less important:
- 'Do not let off the territory which you conquered. No way. Whatever the costs.'
If the zar looses some worthless piece of miserable land in the middle of nowhere his image is in great danger. He looks like a bad looser inside his country. Because the zar is supposed to protect some scrap of dry sand sacrificing innumerable lives of his loyal soldiers.

So if you were a Russian zar I assure you you would not get some new territory without any hope to protect it if need be (or at least to give the invaders a nice glorious bloodbath:)

Ironically, the fact that its bloody difficult to get there by road would be a great reason to increase the sail fleet there.Russian empire had the largest land border on the planet. Which quite unavoidable made the army her first and vital priority. And the Russian navy got what was left after the army - not too much.
Any other financing strategy would be fatal for the empire...

[RGB]

Ironically, the fact that its bloody difficult to get there by road would be a great reason to increase the sail fleet there.

In fact, the convenience of relying on British merchant shipping (which was almost as fast and noticeably cheaper and had much greater carrying capacity) was a major snag in making the Trans-Siberian profitable.

I am perplexed as to why people assume Russians cannot sail to the Pacific from Europe (they did) or why they think many other contenders had naval presence in the area (they did not).

Finally, to keep the sailing smooth, Russia needs to juggle only two key alliances - Denmark (very very easy) and UK (can be done).

It's difficult, yes, and counter-intuitive, but other colonial powers did crazier things, because not all of them were cautious like the Tsars.

[Russian]

Finally, to keep the sailing smooth, Russia needs to juggle only two key alliances - Denmark (very very easy) and UK (can be done).

Do you actually believe in a long-term alliance between two aggressively expansionist world empires: Russia and the UK? :rolleyes:

[The Kiat]

Do you actually believe in a long-term alliance between two aggressively expansionist world empires: Russia and the UK?

Yeah, that little scuffle in the Crimea would derail this alliance.

[RGB]

Do you actually believe in a long-term alliance between two aggressively expansionist world empires: Russia and the UK? :rolleyes:

No, but just because there are competing interests does not mean there needs to be open warfare, and Russia did share many interests with Britain. It's a matter of weighing the Pacific vs. other potential conflicts. A deeper analysis would probably require reconstructing a sample history, however, so I'm not going to defend the point too strongly.

In any case the point is a smaller one than it seems to be; Russia's problem wasn't a lack of a seagoing navy, Russia's problem was the lack of any real merchant marine. Even if they could claim key bits of the Pacific (they could, against, the Spanish at least), they'd not be able to exploit it seriously without a profound societal overhaul, or lots and lots of foreign nationals in Russian service.

[Nugax]

The result will be the EIC writ large. With home and the Tsar literally half a world away they will be on their own and relying on their own resources. The resulting empire will be Russian in name only; in practice it will be very much independent. Oh, they will be careful not to incur the Tsar's wrath, lest he send punitive expeditions after them, but they will pursue their own ends with their own means.

The Russian Empire is fundamentally an autocratic semifeudal land power. The Russian-Pacific empire will be an oligarchic mercantilist maritime power, as different from its parent as a whale from a lion. The only things they have in common will be language and religion, and those will diverge in time as well.

BTW, thanks for recommending Cloud Atlas; a most enjoyable read.

This is a good point, the Russian Pacific will be to Russia what the EIC was to Britain, a fundamentally different organisation to the metropol operating mainly on its own devices. But like the EIC and Britain the Russian pacific will still be tied to the homeland through thick and thin - new recruits will constantly be arriving from Russia and the old hands aim will be to return home wealthy, and the power of the motherland will be used to underwrite the states security. I really doubt language and religion will diverge at all, and unlike British india the native presence is much more marginal and less likely to cause trouble.

[The Kiat]

So the whole thing can just be ran by the Russian-American Company? They'd still need soldiers to hold down the fort, dependent on the size of the fort. Small islands should not be too difficult, but what of Hokkaido?

[Russian]

No, but just because there are competing interests does not mean there needs to be open warfare, and Russia did share many interests with Britain. It's a matter of weighing the Pacific vs. other potential conflicts. A deeper analysis would probably require reconstructing a sample history, however, so I'm not going to defend the point too strongly.It seems to me, that we both agree on the following:
- This 'Russian Pacific' affair will collapse the moment the UK says: "That's enough!"

So if the Tsar begins 'Russian Pacific' project he will give the British an instrument to blackmail him (or stab in the back).

Actually there were a lot of points in Europe and Asia where Russian and British interests conflicted. The British would definitely use "Pacific blackmail', they were not stupid.
Neither were the Russians.
That's why the Tsar didn't start 'Pacific project'.

[The Kiat]

2) Russian Hokkaido

The first landings at Hakedate occurred in 1847. Being so close to the Pacific coast of the Russian Empire, it was a natural place to expand. The island was also a strategic choke on Russian commerce from their few Pacific ports. Unlike lands around the Sea of Ohkost, Hokkaido had ports that were relatively ice-free in the winter. The small port of Hakedate on the southern tip of Hokkaido served the Russian- American Company well. By 1849, the Russian Navy established its own base in the port. Russian soldiers took control of the city away from the local governor. The Imperial Pacific Fleet was small by the comparison of Britain, France and even the United States.

Landings on this northern island of Japan did not go unnoticed by the Shogun. Upon hearing that foreigners have landed and captured parts of Hokkaido, the Shogun mustered an army to drive them out. The attempt was an utter disaster. While attempting to cross the Tsugaru Strait, the Japanese warriors were intercepted by the Russian Navy. They might be small compared to European powers, but easily overwhelmed the Shogun’s flotilla. Most of the warriors never reached land. Those that managed to reach Hokkaido found no sanctuary, as they were scythed by Russian grape shot. The event was in effect a reverse Wind of the Kami. Instead of the invaders being destroyed by the sea, the sea aided them.

Russian soldiers moved on Honshu shortly after the Japanese attack. In October 1850, Russian sailed into Edo Bay and shelled the city of Edo. Shortly after, Russian soldiers landed and occupied the city. There was only one response that the Shogun in Kyoto could have. During the winter of 1850-51, he called forth the largest assembled army the Japanese have compiled since the unification. This gave the Russians several months to fortify their position in Edo. The battle in March 1851, was a bloody affair, especially for the Japanese. Though severely outnumbered, Russian weapons outranged their opponents, and the Japanese lacked the artillery both the Russian Army and Navy could bring to bear on them.

The Japanese defeat opened the way for the Treaty of Kyoto in May. The treaty did several things. First, it opened Japan to foreign trade, with the Russian-American Company retaining a monopoly. As it would turn out, this monopoly would be short-lived. Secondly, it allowed the Russian Navy bases on Honshu and Kyushu. Lastly, and most humiliating, Japan was forced to cede Hokkaido to the Russian Empire. Not only would colonists of Russia’s numerous nationalities trickle on to the island, but the Tsar would exile and deport an even greater number of peoples to the island.

[MarshalBraginsky]

What else would happen on Russian Pacific? I could help if I can, since I too have a Russian Pacific-like thread, but it involves having Russia acquire the Philippines.

[The Kiat]

What else would happen on Russian Pacific? I could help if I can, since I too have a Russian Pacific-like thread, but it involves having Russia acquire the Philippines.

As of now, I only have Hokkaido, Maui and Ni'ihau, Alaska, Midway, Wake and the Kuriles under Russian control. How did you have the Russians ending up with the Philippines? Seems to me that a war with a European power in the Pacific would cause Russia all sorts of trouble.

[MarshalBraginsky]

As of now, I only have Hokkaido, Maui and Ni'ihau, Alaska, Midway, Wake and the Kuriles under Russian control. How did you have the Russians ending up with the Philippines? Seems to me that a war with a European power in the Pacific would cause Russia all sorts of trouble.

First, I had to isolate Russia in Europe through a Swedish victory in the Polish-Swedish Wars and a Phyrric Catholic victory in the 30YW. Next, I had Russia look east and helped out in their Siberian expedition, although I had to include the Revolt of the Three Feudatories (which was a rebellion designed to restore the Ming by toppling the Qing). Of course, Korea also became a protectorate, as well as capturing most of Mongolia and Manchuria. However, only OTL Kazakhstan was under Russian control. I also made the 7YW shorter to four years, and included an earlier version of Pugachev's Rebellion. Finally, I had Russia and France allied in an alternate version of the Napoleonic Wars where I had two Napoleon-like figures in Spain and the Ottoman Empire. Of course, I also had to make an addition to the fact that Russia and Sweden fought to a stalemate in the Great Northern War, although I can change it to a Swedish victory so Russia can still have the Oriental mindset before retaking St. Petersburg in the 1740s. I had ZachScape make a map for me.

[The Kiat]

Yeah, that's way different than the direction I'm headed.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Yeah, that's way different than the direction I'm headed.

That's fine. Maybe we can collaborate on the Russian Pacific thread project, if we could. I need help with mine though.

[The Kiat]

That's fine. Maybe we can collaborate on the Russian Pacific thread project, if we could. I need help with mine though.

I can always use new ideas. It's going to last at least until the Bolshevik Revolution. After that... I don't know. The USSR lacked a bit of the western lands the Russian Empire had, but I think that has more to do with demands of the peace signed with Germany. Not sure if Germany would try anything in the Pacific, not with the Royal Navy's Home Fleet bottling up the High Seas Fleet.

Would Japan get back their island? One thing's for sure, there won't be a Pacific War with Japan as the antagonist. Would Hokkaido be part of a Far East SSR, or its own Republic. What about Alaska and Kauai? The Tsar in exile in Alaska, or a Kauian Soviet Socialist Republic? Or maybe the British would just keep the islands after capturing Kauai and Niihau.

Now how and when are you stuck on yours?

[MarshalBraginsky]

I can always use new ideas. It's going to last at least until the Bolshevik Revolution. After that... I don't know. The USSR lacked a bit of the western lands the Russian Empire had, but I think that has more to do with demands of the peace signed with Germany. Not sure if Germany would try anything in the Pacific, not with the Royal Navy's Home Fleet bottling up the High Seas Fleet.

Would Japan get back their island? One thing's for sure, there won't be a Pacific War with Japan as the antagonist. Would Hokkaido be part of a Far East SSR, or its own Republic. What about Alaska and Kauai? The Tsar in exile in Alaska, or a Kauian Soviet Socialist Republic? Or maybe the British would just keep the islands after capturing Kauai and Niihau.

Now how and when are you stuck on yours?

I just need your input on whether or not I've done my TL properly. It's called The Bear Migrates to the Pacific, and you can find it in my profile.

[Stars-and-Stripes]

The French, British, and other major colonial powers had colonies and ports from Europe, through Africa, and into Asia. Russia on the other hand had to get all supplies through Siberia. Also, they had a major problem getting people there. No one really wanted to travel thousands of miles to live in a place which wasn't much better than home.

Perhaps if Japan had been weakened by a series of other wars, civil war, or horrible diseases than Russia might have tried. But otherwise it wasn't really feasible for them at the time.

[The Kiat]

I just need your input on whether or not I've done my TL properly. It's called The Bear Migrates to the Pacific, and you can find it in my profile.

I ain't no expert, but I'll look at it. The format looks alright, but it'll take a while to read.

[MarshalBraginsky]

I ain't no expert, but I'll look at it. The format looks alright, but it'll take a while to read.

Thanks. Keep me posted when you finished reading.

[The Kiat]

Thanks. Keep me posted when you finished reading.

I'll review it in my own thread. First, the nit pick: The one who became Catherine started out as a German princess of some sort (don't know the exact state, Prussia I think). Given what has happened to Russia and its diminished influence in Europe, the whole Romanov Dynasty is going to end up different. I won't make a fuss over it. I never could write something to satisfy purists, simply because given the change, there is no way to know just who the Tsar or Tsarina would end up being, so just go with what makes for better story telling.

Other than that, you do a good job telling the story, and I've always thought that was the most important thing in any alternate history; keep the reader reading.

[MarshalBraginsky]

I'll review it in my own thread. First, the nit pick: The one who became Catherine started out as a German princess of some sort (don't know the exact state, Prussia I think). Given what has happened to Russia and its diminished influence in Europe, the whole Romanov Dynasty is going to end up different. I won't make a fuss over it. I never could write something to satisfy purists, simply because given the change, there is no way to know just who the Tsar or Tsarina would end up being, so just go with what makes for better story telling.

Other than that, you do a good job telling the story, and I've always thought that was the most important thing in any alternate history; keep the reader reading.

I'm guessing that I would have to get a Peter the Great-like figure who looks eastwards to replace OTL Peter the Great.

[The Kiat]

3) Crimea in the Pacific

When war broke out between Russia and an Anglo-French alliance in 1854, the war quickly spread from the Crimea. Once word spread around the world, the Royal Navy went into quick action in the Hawaiian Islands. Royal Marines and French soldiers landed on Kauai, defeating the Russian garrison with ease. The Kauaians welcomed the invaders as liberators, and were quick to cooperate against their oppressors. The Royal Navy seized control of Wake and Midway, without any struggle, as both islands were uninhabited at the time. With one quick swoop, the Russians were removed from the deep Pacific.

The British in Canada were not as quick as the Navy when it came to moving against Alaska. Important ports on the mainland and the Aleutian Islands came under British control, or were bottled up in sieges throughout 1855. Novoarkhangelsk held out the longest against the British, finally falling only weeks before a peace was concluded in Paris. Alaska and Kauai were moderately valuable prizes, but what the British really desired was on the other side of the Pacific.

In Summer of 1855, a joint Anglo-French force landed on Hokkaido, several kilometers north from Hakedate. The Russian garrison at this important Far East base were far more significant than those in Alaska and scattered across smaller islands. The first assault on the city, launched from the land, was repelled by the Russians with heavy losses to the attackers. The Russian fleet in Hokkaido set to sea to battle the Royal Navy, with even less success. Nearly a third of the Russian ships were either destroyed or captured.

Russian naval bases in Japan itself were immediately attacked by the Japanese. Sensing weakness, the Japanese were quick to attack. Too quick, for their attempts to expel the gaijin were almost as bloody as their war against Russia at the start of the decade. As much as the Shogun did not wish to admit it, Japan required outside assistance, and found it in the form of Great Britain. The two nations had much in common, starting with being islands. An alliance was signed between the two, and with British aid, the Japanese managed to expel the Russians from treaty ports. As much as Japan would have liked, they could not dislodge the Russians from the northern island.

When peace was concluded in Paris in 1856, the Russians were in a bad way in the Pacific. Britain traded conquests in the Pacific for more concessions in Europe. Russia did not lose any of its colonies, but they did lose their monopoly status in Japan, along with all bases and privileges. Hokkaido was retained, much to the Japanese displeasure. Britain filled the void Russia left in Japan. The British extended their protection to Japan and sent in waves of advisors, in exchange for their own monopoly on trade as well as naval bases in the islands. The next fifty years saw the Japanese racing ahead, attempting to catch up with the British technically. The aftermath of the Crimean War saw a mass migration of peoples in the Russian Pacific. Chiefly, for collaborating with the British, a majority of Kauai’s native population were deported to Alaska and Hokkaido, replaced by laborers from the far corners of the Russian Empire

[MarshalBraginsky]

So what we're getting at is a Tsarist version of the Stalinist deportations of Hawaiians in Russia's Hawaiian islands. Assuming that Russia lost the Crimean War, I'm surprised that Britain chose not to keep the Pacific conquests. Also, Canada at that time would just consist of West and East Canada. The most likely place the British would attack Alaska is from British Columbia.

[The Kiat]

So what we're getting at is a Tsarist version of the Stalinist deportations of Hawaiians in Russia's Hawaiian islands. Assuming that Russia lost the Crimean War, I'm surprised that Britain chose not to keep the Pacific conquests. Also, Canada at that time would just consist of West and East Canada. The most likely place the British would attack Alaska is from British Columbia.

Concerning Alaska, I was thinking more amphibious assaults, but I don't think the British had any significant ports in B.C. in the 1850s. Fort Victoria maybe, but I think that's too small. Anyway, Britain traded a few islands for access to Japanese trade. I suppose if they conquered Petrograd then maybe Britain could extend Canada all the way to the Kolyma River.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Concerning Alaska, I was thinking more amphibious assaults, but I don't think the British had any significant ports in B.C. in the 1850s. Fort Victoria maybe, but I think that's too small. Anyway, Britain traded a few islands for access to Japanese trade. I suppose if they conquered Petrograd then maybe Britain could extend Canada all the way to the Kolyma River.

Turning into a Canada-wank with an access to the Pacific. I also believe if the British tried to conquer Petrograd while steering off the Swedish coasts, then they would have a Swedish great power who'd like to pay the British back for sailing too close to their waters.

[Thucydides]

I like this. I assumed at first that the British wouldn't put in the effort of taking Russian Pacific holdings (especially if they're tied down in the Crimea like ITOL) but since they did I too find it odd that they didn't get them in the peace. And IMO it sounds like the Russians are going to be aching to give Japan a good kick in the nuts (if you excuse the expression) before this whole alliance with Great Britain pans out.

I'm looking forward to seeing this progress.

[The Kiat]

Well, the Crimean War was about far more than the Pacific. True, the British could hold the islands easily, but were willing to give them back for concessions elsewhere-- such as in keeping the Balance of Power in Europe.

[MarshalBraginsky]

Well, the Crimean War was about far more than the Pacific. True, the British could hold the islands easily, but were willing to give them back for concessions elsewhere-- such as in keeping the Balance of Power in Europe.

I am still wondering about the fate of the Philippines and modern day Indonesia. Would they be turned into a protectorate or partitioned?

[The Kiat]

I am still wondering about the fate of the Philippines and modern day Indonesia. Would they be turned into a protectorate or partitioned?

One belongs to Spain, the other to the Netherlands. The Russians don't get to expand that far.

[MarshalBraginsky]

One belongs to Spain, the other to the Netherlands. The Russians don't get to expand that far.

So you're also butterflying away the Spanish-American War then.

[Julius Vogel]

You should also consider the impact on British Australia in any British-Russian war in the 1850s. IOTL, at least in the 1870s onwards there were at least two Russian scares that forced the colonial governments of the Australian colonies and NZ to build elaborate coastal defence forts.

NZ was by the mid 1850s a self governing colony, but was lightly populated by Europeans and most Maori in the North Island were still living under their own auspices, despite a treaty with the Crown. The Land Wars started the next decade and the heavy settlement phase was really just starting.

The threat was apparently non existent, but these things happen! In your timeline the threat is real and this is going to have massive implications on the various settler colonies, defence, dependence on Britain etc

A local Auckland newspaper put out a couple of hoax articles about the Russian warship, the Kaskowiski, which created a massive panic, which eventually led to the expensive construction of the forts. Below is a (cleaned up) extract from one of the articles, perhaps after the fact

THE RUSSIAN IRONCLAD KASKOWISKI'.

Much alarm has been caused by the account published in the Southern Cross of the visit and proceedings of a Russian man-o'-war. We admit that in these politically uncertain times the sudden appearance in our port of sin by the monster, bearing the Russian flag, would of itself sufficient to earn serious apprehension, but we can assure our readers that there is no came for alarm, as the statements published being utterly untrue. We are surprised that the Southern Cross should publish such a Muncha'iscii-liko statement", calculated to alarm everybody, without first inquiring into their truth. We must confess to having felt some uneasiness at first sight of the huge ironclad, but we have now to congratulate our readers and the country on the deliverance from the threatened danger or It should be borne in rain t that no true Briton whatsoever should be afraid of ten " casks of whisky- •• We aro authorised to note « that the sole object of the visit of the ' Kaskovrum' was to inspect the -well known Clothing Establishment of Samuel Coomiibs. No 80, QuLDn st set, the fame of which has reached the Emperor and Court of Russia


Daily Southern Cross, Volume XXIX, Issue 4830, 18 February 1873

http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast

[The Kiat]

I don't think the Russians have enough reach for Australia, but I can see where the panics will play into the scheme. I suppose British possessions and colonies would be more fortified, even after the Crimean War. Daily Southern Cross? I don't see why such a big deal is made out of that constellation. The thing looks more like a Southern Kite than a cross. Well, it does. Crosses should have that fifth point where the two means intercept.


So you're also butterflying away the Spanish-American War then.

Well, the U.S. would have a far smaller presence in the Pacific without all its dealings with the Hawaiians, so I guess so. Or at least anything to do with the Philippines or the Mariannas. Cuba's still fair game.

[Julius Vogel]

I don't think the Russians have enough reach for Australia, but I can see where the panics will play into the scheme. I suppose British possessions and colonies would be more fortified, even after the Crimean War. Daily Southern Cross? I don't see why such a big deal is made out of that constellation. The thing looks more like a Southern Kite than a cross. Well, it does. Crosses should have that fifth point where the two means intercept.




Well, the U.S. would have a far smaller presence in the Pacific without all its dealings with the Hawaiians, so I guess so. Or at least anything to do with the Philippines or the Mariannas. Cuba's still fair game.


Well it isn't so much that the Russian threat needs to be real, more just that a much more violent rivarly will no doubt make the Australasian and NZ colonies that much more paranoid and militerised. The Russians need never visit to accomplish that, the colonists just have to think they would

[The Kiat]

4) Gold Rush

While trapping along the banks of the Yukon River, trappers working for the Russian-American Company stumbled upon flakes of gold in 1862. Like the rash of gold rushes hitting the United States in the previous fifteen years, the one in Alaska drew thousands of prospectors and adventurers. Unlike those in California and other parts of the United States, the one in Alaska was blocked to all but the hardiest of men. While tolerable during the summer, the Alaskan interior dropped to lethal temperatures in winter. With little light, it was no wonder the area never attracted many inhabitants.

Despite the environment, immigrants forced their way into Russian territory. Two town were founded along the Yukon. The first, Fairbanks, was founded by American and British prospectors. With a civil war waging in the United States, not as many American flooded to Alaska as might have. The second city, further west, was named Frederick. The second city was populated mostly by German immigrants. Neither of these population centers were particularly welcomed by the Russian government. Thousands of peoples of various nationalities of Russia followed the first wave of prospectors. In many cases, they displaced those who arrived before. If a Russian, or Ukrainian, Pole, etc, where to inflict violence upon a British or German citizen, the Russian officials were likely to do little. If the opposite happened, then the officials cracked down.

This wave of immigrants pushed the Russian frontier further east, threatening fur regions, and potential gold deposits, within British North America. The British government commissioned a string of fortresses in the Yukon territories, while the Russians countered with their own forts. The Alaskan-Canadian frontier soon became as one of the most heavily defended colonial borders in the world. Unlike many of Russia’s other neighbors, Britain was in a position to cause Russia great harm if push came to shove. Not wanting to lose the colonies, the Tsar and British Government negotiated a border between their colonies in 1864, with a southern boundary of the 54'40 parallel.

[The Kiat]

5) Russo-Chinese War

With traffic along the Russian Pacific coast growing by the year, it was not enough to have warm water ports in Hokkaido, or bases in China. The Russian Empire required direct, overland access to the sea. In 1863, Russian forces invaded the Qing Empire. Their goal was to take from China ports in southern Manchuria as well as Korea. From here, the Tsar decreed that a railroad would cross Siberia just like the one being built to cross America.

China had once been a powerful state. During the Ming Dynasty, they were stronger and more advance than Europe. When the Manchu invaded and overthrow the Ming, China started a gradual spiral downward, while Europe was struck by an industrial Revolution. Though Russia was far from industrialized, it did sport the best modern European weapons money could buy. With gold from Alaska flowing into the coffers, Russia could afford a great many weapons. The initial invasions of China came from bases in the Pacific, as Russia landed forces near Seoul as well as Zolotoy Rog.

The main invasion of northern China did not occur until the following year, when a Russian Army marched across land, with a great number of dead soldiers in its wake. The invasion was not as large as the Grande Army of Napoleon, but it was a match for what China sent against it. Russian forces never reached the Great Wall, but did seize control of all the Manchu lands to the north. A great battle near what is now Harbin, saw the destruction of a Chinese Army and the lose of Manchuria, homeland of the Manchu.

By 1867, the Qing were forced to come to terms with Russia. Along with their homeland, they also ceded Korea and Outer Mongolia to the Russian Empire. The four year war so weakened the Qing Dynasty, that it was brought down by the Revolution of 1871 and 1873. The last Manchu Emperor was deposed in 1875, and the Chinese Empire fell into another Warring States period, this time with European powers looking at it with covetous eyes.

[Grey Wolf]

One thing to note is that the British operations within the Pacific that you have here would require a massive effort - see their not very successful OTL operations in the Sea of Okhotsk in OTL for comparison

http://www.alternate-history-fiction.com/crimean-war-far-east.html

This is of course well within their capabilities but ONLY if they cut back on some other theatre, and obviously that cannot be the Black Sea.

The Baltic is going to have to suffer, though you aren't going to get a like-for-like redeployment to the Pacific because a lot of what ended up in the Baltic was designed for shallow draught operations not far from bases. What's most likely to happen is that the manpower will be shifted around and more of the reserve fleet activated, crewed by those who ended up in the Baltic and sent to the Far East.

I think you may well end up using some of the Indian garrison for Pacific operations, which would have quite interesting knock-on effects for India later - OTL the Mutiny was rushing down upon them

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[dgharis]

I'll review it in my own thread. First, the nit pick: The one who became Catherine started out as a German princess of some sort (don't know the exact state, Prussia I think). Given what has happened to Russia and its diminished influence in Europe, the whole Romanov Dynasty is going to end up different. I won't make a fuss over it. I never could write something to satisfy purists, simply because given the change, there is no way to know just who the Tsar or Tsarina would end up being, so just go with what makes for better story telling.

Other than that, you do a good job telling the story, and I've always thought that was the most important thing in any alternate history; keep the reader reading.

Catherine was Princess Sophia Fredericka Augusta of Anhalt-Zerbst-Dornburg prior to her marriage to Tsar Peter III. As a condition of her marriage she was baptized into the Orthodox faith, taking the name Yekaterina Alekseyevna (Catherine, daughter of Alexander) in the process.

[The Kiat]

Kind of what I envision as the expanse of the Russian Empire.

[The Kiat]

6) Population Transfers

The first major transfer of population in the Russian Pacific happened in 1856, involving the deportation of most of the native population of Kauai to Alaska and Hokkaido. The Polynesians were not the last people to be uprooted. In order to populate its newly acquired lands, Russia sent colonists to its Pacific islands. Wake and Midway only sustained colonies of a few hundred, most of which were fishers or whalers. Traditional Russian crops faired poorly upon these islands. Most of the Russians who headed to the islands chose Kauai as their first choice.

The Russian Far East was also a land where the Tsar could exile his enemies. Manchu were evicted from Manchuria and resettled in Alaska as well as Siberia. Poles and Ukrainians from the failed Revolution of 1877, were treated slightly better. Instead of Alaska, hundreds of thousands of them were spread throughout Manchuria, Outer Mongolia and Korea, with large populations in Darien and Seoul. Korean and Chinese laborers were used in the construction of the city of Vladivostok. All three mainland cities were used as bases for the Russian Navy, as well as supported sizable garrisons to defend the newly conquered lands.

Attempts to expand further south in the Pacific were checked quickly by the British. In 1881, a Russian expedition to Formosa and Luzon nearly came to blows when it encountered the British squadron based in Hong Kong. London made it clear that any attempt to expand further into China, or to take advantage of weaker European states (i.e. Spain in the Philippines or Marianas, or the Dutch in the East Indies) would result in a correction of the balance of power in the Pacific. Russia had reached its zenith in the Pacific.

[The Kiat]

7) Last Years of the Bear

In 1904, the Russian Empire was wracked by its most violent revolution in decades. At the head of this uprising was the Bolsheviks. Not all the rebels were communists. Most were just angry at the system and wanted some of the liberties that other Europeans took for granted. The revolution failed, and many of the rebels faced long exiles in Siberia, as well as Alaska and the sugar fields of Kauai. 1904 did lead to reforms in the Russian government, establishing the embryo of a constitutional monarchy. Up until the revolutions in 1917, most of the Duma was appointed by the Tsar.

In 1914, the Russian Empire was catapulted into the Great War. Most of its bloodiest battles took place in Europe, but the Russian Pacific was not without action. After a failed attempt to capture Kauai, the Germans did battle with the Russians in war-torn China. The Russians, in a joint effort with their now British allies, launched assault after assault on German fortifications around Shanghai. Though the officers were European, most of the soldiers who did the dying were either Indians for the British or Central Asians for the Russians.

By June of 1916, the German Protectorate’s defenses were cracked. Thanks to the Royal Navy’s might, the Germans had a great deal of difficulty supplying their holdings in China. They had an even greater difficulty in holding on to their Pacific colonies, which fell to the British one after another. The Russian Army was again prevented from taking action in the Central Pacific. Allies or not, the British were not about to share the spoils.

As the war drug on into 1917, two revolutions struck Russia. The second revolution, lead by Lenin and his Reds, took control in November of 1917. With many Reds exiled to holdings around the Pacific, Soviets in Kauai, Alaska and Hokkaido broke Tsarist control over the northern Pacific.

[The Kiat]

8) Soviet Pacific

The formation of the Soviet Union in 1921 saw the birth of the Far East S.S.R. and Korean S.S.R. During the civil war in post-Tsarist Russia, Russia’s allies landed on Hokkaido, the Far Eastern mainland, as well as invaded Alaska. After Lenin became master of the new state, the allies vacated, though Japan was quite vocal in the abandonment of its lost territories. Hokkaido remained part of the Far East S.S.R.

During the Stalin years, a crash industrialization of the Pacific Republic cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of the state’s enemies, real and imaginary. Gold discovered along the Kolyma River claimed even more. It is believed that one laborer died for every kilogram of gold extracted from the mines. Shipyards went up in all of the Pacific’s major cities, a means for the USSR to keep its role in the northern Pacific.

During WWII, factories in the western Republics were dismantled, packed on the Trans-Siberian Railroad, and reassembled east of the Urals. A great number of factories were built around Vladivostok, Seoul and Harbin. From here, Stalin was able to have the arms produced that lead to a decisive victory over the Germans. The war ended with millions dead, and the Soviets occupying Prussia as well as a zone in East Berlin.

The new world order lasted until 1957, when trouble in Maui sparked off another world war. The Soviet Union found itself fighting in Europe as well as North America. From airbases in Alaska, Soviet bombers struck at industrial centers on the US West Coast. Conversely, from bases in Japan, NATO bombers struck at Soviet targets. When the war went nuclear, most Soviet bombers out of Alaska were either shot down, or destroyed when their airbases were the center of US nuclear strikes. One bomber did reach San Francisco, destroying the city in the process.

The Soviet Union lost nearly a hundred cities in the exchange, with more killed than in World War II. So utter was the devastation, that the central government in Moscow simply cease to exist, causing the USSR to collapse, violently. The Far East S.S.R. splintered from Moscow, then splintered even further, as ethnically different regions began to assert their old ways, those traditions that survived the Russian conquest.

[The Kiat]

....meh...


9) Successor States

Upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Japanese moved quickly to reoccupy Hokkaido. What was once a backwater island was, by 1960, a mis-developed industrial zone. The Japanese spread further north to take control of some of the Soviet oil fields around the island. When the Kauaians, and others exiled to Hokkaido, wished to return to their homelands, the Japanese aided them in departing. They encouraged them, even to the point that between 1964 and 1967, Japan expelled a million ethnic Russians from the island. When exiled Ainu tried to return, they were barred. The Japanese rebuilt cities destroyed during World War III quickly, throwing up new high-rises well into the 1980s.

Kauai gained its own independence, under American protection. The Republic of Kauai did welcome some of its original inhabitants back, but by 1960, Russian was the island’s dominate culture. The island suffered environmental degradation throughout the Russian rule, rendering it almost as barren as Haiti. Other Pacific islands of the Soviet Union fell under American control.

Alaska broke away from the Far East Republic, establishing itself in 1964. Despite damage during the war, the new republic soon grew in wealth. Their growth was similar to that what happened to Arab nations decades earlier, and was fueled by the same black gold. Russian attempts to bring Alaska back into its fold met with failure. Both the United States and Canada declared they would go to war over Alaskan independence.

Korea and Mongolia regained their independence. Manchuria, as well as the Pacific coast, was absorbed into Russia as the Far Eastern Autonomous Republic.