Unsucessful Pearl Harbor leads to Sucessful Nazi Germany?

[Prefrence]

What If the Pearl Harbor attack had been detected in various ways an hour or so before it happened? As a result the United States would be ready for the attack, and the Japanese could have very well be slaughtered.

Could this keep Hitler from declaring war on America?

If so would the Germans do better because

A)Lack of American Troops
B)Less American Financial aid to the allies
C)Less troops are needed in France, and Italy as the British do not have the strength alone to take them
D) It is unlikely America would declare war at any point, until Japan is defeated (which could take even longer than OTL because we dont have the Bomb)

[Snake Featherston]

No, one US destroyer torpedoed by the wrong U-Boat and things proceed as OTL.

[informationfan]

What If the Pearl Harbor attack had been detected in various ways an hour or so before it happened? As a result the United States would be ready for the attack, and the Japanese could have very well be slaughtered.

Could this keep Hitler from declaring war on America?
IF: nope - with the usa in the war with japan (with or without a sucsessfull pearl), the people of the usa will be war-ready... so even with hitler not declaring war, the usa will do this later on
or as described the wrong torpedo or depth charge will cause this war - that was undeclared ongoiung from august 1941... without declaring war, germany is just having a worse situation


If so would the Germans do better because

A)Lack of American Troops
IF: if the americans stay out the european war? maybe... but they won´t

B)Less American Financial aid to the allies
IF: nope - they can aid more - it will improve american industry

C)Less troops are needed in France, and Italy as the British do not have the strength alone to take them
IF: yes - but they had no troops in italy until 1943.. so they do not benefit from this

D) It is unlikely America would declare war at any point, until Japan is defeated (which could take even longer than OTL because we dont have the Bomb)
No, it is likley... for the americans, the nazis and the yellow subhumans are the same - a lot americans belived that the nazis attack pearl... they really belived in this.

so generally the USA was very anti-german, if they are in a war, they soon will accept the "unavoidable" declaration...

do they accept the germany first-strategy? that could be interesting... but latest in early 43 they will do... so the build-up in britain need more time (or the troops are less trained and prepared for the invasion), but it still doesn´t change a lot.

[Noravea]

No, it is likley... for the americans, the nazis and the yellow subhumans are the same - a lot americans belived that the nazis attack pearl... they really belived in this.

so generally the USA was very anti-german, if they are in a war, they soon will accept the "unavoidable" declaration...

do they accept the germany first-strategy? that could be interesting... but latest in early 43 they will do... so the build-up in britain need more time (or the troops are less trained and prepared for the invasion), but it still doesn´t change a lot.

Is there a source for this?

[Snake Featherston]

No, it is likley... for the americans, the nazis and the yellow subhumans are the same - a lot americans belived that the nazis attack pearl... they really belived in this.

so generally the USA was very anti-german, if they are in a war, they soon will accept the "unavoidable" declaration...

do they accept the germany first-strategy? that could be interesting... but latest in early 43 they will do... so the build-up in britain need more time (or the troops are less trained and prepared for the invasion), but it still doesn´t change a lot.

Citation badly needed. If they were so anti-German they would not have treated Nazi POWs better than black GIs.

[Noravea]

Citation badly needed. If they were so anti-German they would not have treated Nazi POWs better than black GIs.

And a lot of influential Americans were sympathetic towards the Germans (Until the War).

[jmc247]

Germany doesn't declare war on the U.S. then regardless of if the U.S. declares war or not on Germany a year or two later public opinion pushes the U.S. to go for a Japan first strategy and an attack on France isn't ready until 1945 at least. Which means Stalin takes much more of Europe at the end of the war likely in 1946.

You want to change the war outcome in Europe in such a way that doesn't simply delay Germany's defeat the U.S. or Germany not declaring war on each other in 1941 isn't enough. The U.S. being more neutral and not ok'ing Lend Lease is the only way I see that happening.

[KyleB]

War will still happen. Hitler had an obligation under the Tripartite Pact to declare war on America anyways. Besides, the Japanese will still attack the British, who will pressure the US to join--so an American declaration of war in 1941 is inevitable.

[informationfan]

Is there a source for this?


Misunderstanding... i do not want to say that they thought that the germans REALLY attacked, they just thought as it was done "the nazis attacked us"... sure they recognized that the japanese did it...

but a lot people learning about the attack couldn´t belive that the japanese and not the germans did it.

so - i do not say "nazis attack pearl" was thought about in dec. 9 or 10, but learning about the attack, many thought this.

hope this make it clear?

[informationfan]

Citation badly needed. If they were so anti-German they would not have treated Nazi POWs better than black GIs.


Please read what i wrote above... my point was - a lot people - motivated by probritish propaganda belived that germany would attack pearl... sure if they learned more (next day, same day later on) they recognized that the japanese had done it.

[informationfan]

Germany doesn't declare war on the U.S. then regardless of if the U.S. declares war or not on Germany a year or two later public opinion pushes the U.S. to go for a Japan first strategy and an attack on France isn't ready until 1945 at least. Which means Stalin takes much more of Europe at the end of the war likely in 1946.

You want to change the war outcome in Europe in such a way that doesn't simply delay Germany's defeat the U.S. or Germany not declaring war on each other in 1941 isn't enough. The U.S. being more neutral and not ok'ing Lend Lease is the only way I see that happening.


correct - only a true neutral usa (not selling weapons to anyone) will have a serious impact to the war... but it is asb

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

And a lot of influential Americans were sympathetic towards the Germans (Until the War).

A lot of, not necessarily all of. Sympathy to fascism in general started to fade with things like the Italian invasion of Abyssinia and once the Germans started jumping countries in Europe, American public sentiment pretty much only went downhill from there.

I wouldn't even say a lot of people were sympathetic, just a hell of a lot more people than most Americans are comfortable admitting.

Also the word of the day is Lend-Lease, if Pearl Harbor fails and somehow the wisdom not to pick a fight with the last remaining world superpower that Germany is not currently at war with somehow stirs in Hitler's mind where it failed to OTL, then the Germans will almost guaranteed lose because of Lend-Lease. It'll be longer, it'll be bloodier, and it'll be nastier, possibly to the extent of setting back the Soviet Union's development enough to knock them down to regional status for a time, but the Germans will in the end probably still lose.

[jayel]

the US would have needed a lot more than 1 hour warning, Sunday morning the naval crews, AA crews and army air corps pilots were on leave spread out all over the island, the Japanese may have had slightly higher losses with a warning but still a major blow to US forces no way to get the ships battle ready and no way to get the aircraft out of bunched up parking

[Snake Featherston]

Please read what i wrote above... my point was - a lot people - motivated by probritish propaganda belived that germany would attack pearl... sure if they learned more (next day, same day later on) they recognized that the japanese had done it.

O really? More than that post is needed to show that a lot of people believed this, given that into November of 1941 a slight majority favored war with Japan but rather less than a majority with Germany.

[Gridley]

the US would have needed a lot more than 1 hour warning, Sunday morning the naval crews, AA crews and army air corps pilots were on leave spread out all over the island, the Japanese may have had slightly higher losses with a warning but still a major blow to US forces no way to get the ships battle ready and no way to get the aircraft out of bunched up parking

One hour would have made quite a lot of difference. Sure, not everyone is going to make it to their stations, but a lot will.

Water-tight doors will be closed. Many (not all) AA guns will be manned, and ammo will be ready for them. Damage control parties (some of them) will be closed up. Pumps will be powered.

A critical hit like the one on USS Arizona could easily still happen, but USS Oklahoma is unlikely to capsize, and USS California probably won't sink at all (assuming equal damage).

[jmc247]

correct - only a true neutral usa (not selling weapons to anyone) will have a serious impact to the war... but it is asb

If Hitler decided to wait around another year to attack Poland it's entirely possible FDR would have before then decided not to run for a third term so you might have had a President who was willing to sell weapons to the UK, but not at a level that he thought would have dragged the US into the war so nothing on the level of Lend Lease and nothing to the Soviet Union.

[Gridley]

No, one US destroyer torpedoed by the wrong U-Boat and things proceed as OTL.

No, we have proof that wasn't enough:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Reuben_James_%28DD-245%29

[CalBear]

The Japanese were not going to get "slaughtered" with an hours notice, or with three or eight or twenty-four. Enough notice for Pearl to be fully alerted and the Kido Butai simple sails away without attacking. Nagumo's orders were specific on that point.

A warning that lets the U.S. get water-tight integrity set and some of the fighters up is the best you can hope for. That makes the attack more of a push. Worst case is the fleet sorties as it brings up steam and the heavies get picked off by some of the TWENTY-EIGHT I Boats in the waters off Oahu waiting for exactly that opportunity or by aircraft from Nagumo's carriers.

Regardless of what the Japanese do at Pearl, they have also invaded Guam, the Philippines, attacked Wake and Midway, and are killing American troops. Even if the Japanese stand pat and don't move a muscle the U.S. will be at war with Germany within six months.

The KM had already sunk the Ruben James, and a U-boat (U-203) had done its very best to attack USS Texas while on Neutrality Patrol during 1941. If that boat had been a bit luckier the U.S. and Germany would have been at war in a week.What If the Pearl Harbor attack had been detected in various ways an hour or so before it happened? As a result the United States would be ready for the attack, and the Japanese could have very well be slaughtered.

Could this keep Hitler from declaring war on America?

If so would the Germans do better because

A)Lack of American Troops
B)Less American Financial aid to the allies
C)Less troops are needed in France, and Italy as the British do not have the strength alone to take them
D) It is unlikely America would declare war at any point, until Japan is defeated (which could take even longer than OTL because we dont have the Bomb)

[Abgrund]

War will still happen. Hitler had an obligation under the Tripartite Pact to declare war on America anyways. Besides, the Japanese will still attack the British, who will pressure the US to join--so an American declaration of war in 1941 is inevitable.
Since when did Hitler care about treaty obligations?

[Hoist40]

the US would have needed a lot more than 1 hour warning, Sunday morning the naval crews, AA crews and army air corps pilots were on leave spread out all over the island, the Japanese may have had slightly higher losses with a warning but still a major blow to US forces no way to get the ships battle ready and no way to get the aircraft out of bunched up parking

Here is part of a report talking about navy personnel actually on board
Excerpts from a summarized report on personnel actually on board at the commencement of the attack on 7 December, 1941, are enlightening
　
On board
Commanding officers of battleships .................. 5 out of 8.
Commanding officers of cruisers ..................... 6 out of 7.
Commanding officers of destroyers ................... 63 percent.
Damage control officers of battleships .............. 6 out of 8.


On board
Average percentage of officers:
Battleships (approximate) .......................... 60 to 70 percent.
Cruisers, battle force (approximate) ............... 65 percent.
Destroyers, battle force (approximate) ............. 50 percent.
Average percentage of men:
Battleships ........................................ 95 percent.
Cruisers, battle force ............................. 98 percent.
Destroyers, battle force ........................... 85 percent.

http://wwiiarchives.net/servlet/doc/Pharcinc

[Astrodragon]

Since when did Hitler care about treaty obligations?

When they were ones he himself was pushing

[Snake Featherston]

The Japanese were not going to get "slaughtered" with an hours notice, or with three or eight or twenty-four. Enough notice for Pearl to be fully alerted and the Kido Butai simple sails away without attacking. Nagumo's orders were specific on that point.

A warning that lets the U.S. get water-tight integrity set and some of the fighters up is the best you can hope for. That makes the attack more of a push. Worst case is the fleet sorties as it brings up steam and the heavies get picked off by some of the TWENTY-EIGHT I Boats in the waters off Oahu waiting for exactly that opportunity or by aircraft from Nagumo's carriers.

Regardless of what the Japanese do at Pearl, they have also invaded Guam, the Philippines, attacked Wake and Midway, and are killing American troops. Even if the Japanese stand pat and don't move a muscle the U.S. will be at war with Germany within six months.

The KM had already sunk the Ruben James, and a U-boat (U-203) had done its very best to attack USS Texas while on Neutrality Patrol during 1941. If that boat had been a bit luckier the U.S. and Germany would have been at war in a week.

In fact their tactical plans expected severe US resistance, the absence of it surprised them. This was partially because it was expected that Nomura would deliver the declaration of war at the same time the Pacific Fleet was destroyed, admittedly.

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

War will still happen. Hitler had an obligation under the Tripartite Pact to declare war on America anyways. Besides, the Japanese will still attack the British, who will pressure the US to join--so an American declaration of war in 1941 is inevitable.

The British had been pressuring the US to declare war for quite a long time, to no avail, ultimately it took actually being attacked for the US to bother to do anything. And the Japanese attack itself was basically just a culmination of bad blood between the US and Japan because Japan expanding into areaas America had interest

Hitler doesn't actually owe Japan much of anything, let alone a treaty, given his historical disposition towards following such things, he never quite forgave Japan for attacking China, a nation he had wanted to cultivate as an ally. In retrospect, declaring war on the US was the biggest easily avoidable mistake that Hitler really ever made at any point in time. He by all means had justification to say that Japan was a terrible ally that made no sense to have on account of being on the other side of the world and leave them to be destroyed by the Americans.

But really, the tipping factor of America's role in the war was the Lend-Lease Act, which in many ways did MORE than the actual troops America sent to fight in the war ever did.

A war between the US and Japan is inevitable, one between Germany and the US, not so much, but even without actual US military involvement in Europe the Germans are still probably going to lose.

[KyleB]

Since when did Hitler care about treaty obligations?

When he helped the Italians in the Balkans in spring '41.