Middle Eastern Christian State

[black angel]

so I've thinking about the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990), as well Coptic Christians and the issues that face Iraqi Christians, so is there any way for a Christian state to be formed in the middle east?

[torque7844]

so I've thinking about the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990), as well Coptic Christians and the issues that face Iraqi Christians, so is there any way for a Christian state to be formed in the middle east?

Depends how far back you want your POD. A Christian state that forms in modern times strikes me as very unlikely.

[Cook]

Wasn’t that why Lebanon was parcelled off from Syria?

[Iori]

Depends on your deinifition of the Middle-East, since if you go by say the CIA one their already are two countries and one unrecognized state that are majority Christian.

That aside, with a PoD after 1900, well it'd be very difficult, but not impossible.

Lebanon was in the 30's majority Christian, though is now majority Muslim (based on estimates, since their has'nt been a census since 1932..), so if you find some way to keep it Christian that would provide one.

If Iraq at some point collapsed completely you could maybe see a Christian state in the North alongside Kurdistan, though it's very likely not to be viable in the long term (to small population wise and not the greatest land).

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Lebanon was a Christian majority state until at least the Lebanese Civil War which led to many Lebanese, more so Christian than Muslim, to head towards Latin America and other places. And I recalled the British and French promising to give the Assyrians their own independent state in the aftermath of the first World War.

[strangeland]

Lebanon was majority-Christian for a long time, and could have a durable Christian majority had the borders been drawn differently.

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Lebanon was majority-Christian for a long time, and could have a durable Christian majority had the borders been drawn differently.

Well they could had left Lebanon around Mt. Lebanon.

[black angel]

this Lebanon map might be useful

http://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/1229_1213265982_map-lebanon-may-2.jpg

[CaliBoy1990]

Wasn’t that why Lebanon was parcelled off from Syria?

I thought Syria was parcelled off of Lebanon, LOL......:p

[torque7844]

Nice! Doesn't the Lebanese concept of government go in for confessionalism or some such? My (admittedly dim) understanding of it is that it gives political weight to religious groups in an area based on their relative populations.

I'd be interested to know what the population densities of those areas are - maybe there's enough mandate in some of them to form a smaller, consolidated Christian state under the right circumstances?

[Iori]

Nice! Doesn't the Lebanese concept of government go in for confessionalism or some such? My (admittedly dim) understanding of it is that it gives political weight to religious groups in an area based on their relative populations.


Lebanon uses confessionalism yes, in the Parliament half the seats have to be held by Muslims and half by Christians while through agreement the President is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shi'a Muslim.

[torque7844]

Thanks for the explanation - I was curious as to how exactly it worked in practice.

[black angel]

Lebanon uses confessionalism yes, in the Parliament half the seats have to be held by Muslims and half by Christians while through agreement the President is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of the Parliament a Shi'a Muslim.


there are 128 seats the the Parliament and its split thus:

34 seats for Maronites
14 for Greek Orthodox
8 for Greek Catholics
5 for Armenian Orthodox
1 for Armenian Catholics
1 for Protestants
1 for other Christians

27 for Sunnis
27 for Shi'ite
2 for Alawite
8 for Druze

[Plumber]

Lebanon has to be smaller, around Mt. Lebanon, or you need to have ethnic cleansing since demographically Muslims will become the majority.

[Prefrence]

simple, Lebanon in the 80's has a population exchange with Syria. The Christian Syrias about 2 million in number go the Lebanon, and the 2 million muslims of Lebanon go to syria.

[Plumber]

simple, Lebanon in the 80's has a population exchange with Syria. The Christian Syrias about 2 million in number go the Lebanon, and the 2 million muslims of Lebanon go to syria.
That would work, but the Assads need to be out of power. They depend on minority support to rule, being Alawites.

[ChewyGranola]

Wouldn't it be tough for any non Muslim state to make it without one or more wars? Not that Muslims are warlike or whatever, but demographics would seem to overwhelm minority populations eventually. If nothing happened to keep other religious groups out of this proposed Christian state, it would eventually become a boring mixed religion country like most of the rest of the world.

[Intosh]

Depends how far back you want your POD. A Christian state that forms in modern times strikes me as very unlikely.

If the Ottoman Empire was dismantled in the XIXth century, some christian state could be formed in :

- eastern Asia Minor : a Big Armenia with the Pontic Greeks,

- in the Levant : Lebanon + Palestine,

- somewhere in Irak with the Assyrians Christians, but I don't know if they formed a centralized community somewhere, so it is probably ASB,

All of these "christian" states will probably have a muslim majority...

[Riain]

This is interesting, I look forward to seeing how this pans out.

[abc123]

Maybe in 80s, with Israeli military support Christians can secede from Libanon and make a separate state in the south...

[black angel]

Maybe in 80s, with Israeli military support Christians can secede from Libanon and make a separate state in the south...


looking at the map It seems the South of Lebanon is Muslim Majority, a Christian nation might be able to be made during the Civil War, but it'd be in the middle of Lebanon, maybe a Christian/Druze nation from Tripoli to Saida

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Or you can avoid the whole civil war to begin with.

[abc123]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/Civil_war_Lebanon_map_1983a.gif/220px-Civil_war_Lebanon_map_1983a.gif
Lebanon in 1983

Israel controlled area- blue and yellow ( blue is UN administred zone actually )
Christian controlled area- purple

[torque7844]

Maybe in 80s, with Israeli military support Christians can secede from Libanon and make a separate state in the south...

The thing that makes me think this is unlikely is that given the political climate of the area, any state created with Israeli military support is going to be a pariah in the region isn't it?

[Daylight Savings]

The thing that makes me think this is unlikely is that given the political climate of the area, any state created with Israeli military support is going to be a pariah in the region isn't it?

True, but they'd find a natural ally in Israel. And likely support from the west in much the same way as Israel receives. They'd never be sitting comfortably, but if such a state were created it could last.

[abc123]

True, but they'd find a natural ally in Israel. And likely support from the west in much the same way as Israel receives. They'd never be sitting comfortably, but if such a state were created it could last.

I agree. After all, if pariah status between Arab states is the price of freedom, then no problem for me...
;)

[black angel]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/Civil_war_Lebanon_map_1983a.gif/220px-Civil_war_Lebanon_map_1983a.gif
Lebanon in 1983

Israel controlled area- blue and yellow ( blue is UN administred zone actually )
Christian controlled area- purple


well there are pockets of Christians on the border but all of the UN zero and about half of the Israeli Zero are Muslim areas no way to form a Christian state there (or any Israel friend state) with out a full army of occupation there at all times, I can see the middle of Lebanon being turned in a pro-Israel Christian state and Israel occupying the South, maybe turning it into a West Bank like area, the North might get Annexed to Syria, but more likely becoming a Syrian puppet rump-state

[Riain]

There were considerable population transfers in the mid-east with the formation of Israel and subsequent wars, and the borders of Lebanon were drawn up by the French to create a Christian state. Perhaps subtle PoDs are the way to create a Christian state, slightly different borders and different population tansfers could see Lebanon become more christian over time instead of less so.

[Wendell]

Depends on your deinifition of the Middle-East, since if you go by say the CIA one their already are two countries and one unrecognized state that are majority Christian.


Name them?:confused:

[black angel]

Name them?:confused:

he means Georgia and Armenia

[Wendell]

he means Georgia and Armenia

Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia are both nominally Christian and unrecognized.