AH CHallenge: Austria Victorious in 1866.

[Justin]

During much of the 1860's, There was a power struggle between Austria-Hungary and Prussia over who would lead the German states and become the principal power in Central Europe. Prussia and it's Chancellor Otto Von Bismark favoured the Kleindeutschland idea of a Germany united under Prussian Leadership and independent of Austria. The Hapsburgs on the otherhand envisioned a Grossdeutschland that would encompass all of what is today modern Germany. These two ideas would come to a head after a Prussian victory over Denmark in 1864.

After the war, there was a dispute over who was to administer the Province of Schleswig-Holstein. (IIRC, Since Austria was a war participant, it wanted joint occupation. The Prussians who bore the brunt of the war wanted to incoperate it into Prussia.) In 1866, Austria declared war on Prussia and called on the armies of Southern Germany to fight Prussia, Prussia called upon the armies of Northern Germany and the Italian city-states to aid Prussia.

The two key particpaants who did not enter the war on either side were the French under Napoleon III and The Russian Empire. Napoleon II Supported Austria but chose to remain neutral so he could have a role in the negotiations that would soon come. Russian, still remembering it's loss in the Crimean war, remained neutral despite Austria's alliance with Russia. The Russians blamed the Austrian refusal to enter the war as a major reason why Russia lost the Crimean war. So St. Petersburg decided to stay out of the war as a form of sweet Revenge.

In July of 1866, Prussian General Helmuth von Moltke (Molyke the younger) Invaded Bohemia and defeated the Austrian Army at Konnigratz. The Prussians inflicted casualties of the Austrians that were two times that of the Prussian forces. Two reasons why the Prussians won such a devastating victory was due to better training and organization as well as the Prussian Needle-gun which outperformed the Austrian muzzle-loaders.

The Prussians were given a set back at Langensalza by A Hanoverian army but Hanover soon surrendered due to overwhealming Prussian numbers. In Bavaria, Frankfurt and Nuremberg were captured and the Southern German armies so folded. This was due to the fact that the Southern German armies played little role in the defense of Austria and instead fought thier own campaigns.

On august 23, 1866, the Treaty of Prague was signed to end the was which was mediated by Napoleon III of France. The treaty more or less forced the Austrians to no longer interfere in Germany and gave Prussia the ability to annex several German states and form the North German Confederation in 1867.

But suppose for a second the Austrians had managed to defeat the Prussians in the war either by thier own means or with help from France or Russia. Would this enable the Austrians to realize thier dream of a Germanic Empire ruled by Hapsburgs from Vienna?

Your Challenge is to have a POD no earlier than 1865 that would result in an Austrian victory in the Seven Weeks war

[David S Poepoe]

Actually, its Moltke the Elder. The two were closely related, uncle and nephew, but probably miles apart in capability.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

You've got the history and geography all wrong.

The Italian city-states were gone. Italy was united, and of all the states that had gone into it, only Parma and Modena could qualify for something like city-states.

Frankfurt is not in Bavaria, it's on the Rhine. Check an atlas.

It wasn't Northern Germany vs Southern Germany. The Austrian allies that I remember were Hanover (in the north), Nassau, and Hesse-Darmstadt (both in the center).

Russia hadn't lost the Crimean War because Austria didn't join them, but because it was ready to join their enemies.

Prussia and Austria had reached something of an agreement on Schleswig-Holstein: Prussian administration in Schleswig, Austrian in Holstein.

The war is very interesting, however, I'll give you that. For one thing, I remember reading in the Britannica article on Francis Joseph that France and Austria had reached an agreement that stipulated that, no matter what happens in the war, Venetia would be given to Italy. The emperor decided that his armies would not abandon a crownland without a fight, and so they fought - doing quite well. The POD that you want could be that he decides to let the Italians have it, moving troops into Bohemia. I don't see France joining, Napoleon III was waiting for the war to be over (though not expecting a quick Prussian victory) so he could act as arbitrer and get some territorial compensation. Russia, were it to join, would fight on Prussia's side. Bavaria was more pro-Austrian, but I don't know how willing they were to fight.

[jolo]

Frankfurt is not in Bavaria, it's on the Rhine. Check an atlas.


Except it's the Main, not the Rhine - Frankfurt is in the center of Germany.

A PoD might be a weapons offer they got shortly before the war - 40000 needle guns from Germany (some northern German state). They refused, reducing military spending due to thinking they were safe. The Guns went to Russia(!) instead.

[Sapiento]

A possible POD could be the inventor of the needle gun, Johann Nikolaus von Dreyse. He first went with his new needle gun to the Austrian Army, but they showed no interest. The reasons for this decision are not exactly known, but it is supposed that the generals in the Austrian Army feared some sort of revolts within the army and the needle gun would have been a dangerous weapon in the hands of mutineers.
When the Austrians rejected Dreyses offer, he went to Prussia and there the Army realized the potential of the needle gun.

[Grey Wolf]

Bavaria was more pro-Austrian, but I don't know how willing they were to fight.

Bavaria DID fight against Prussia, and lost.

In essence the war of 1866 was a war of the GERMAN CONFEDERATION against Prussia. That's why you have allies for Austria in places such as Hannover and Bavaria, kingdoms with their own strong traditions who did not want to fall under Prussian dominance

Grey Wolf

[sikitu]

Bavaria DID fight against Prussia, and lost.

In essence the war of 1866 was a war of the GERMAN CONFEDERATION against Prussia. That's why you have allies for Austria in places such as Hannover and Bavaria, kingdoms with their own strong traditions who did not want to fall under Prussian dominance

Grey Wolf

This is correct. One of the few Prussian allies were the duchy of Brunswick, Oldenburg and Mecklenburg, whereas most German states fought on the Austrian side.

I agree that the war does offer some POD potential, maybe the weapons question is a good one.

[ShawnEndresen]

I agree that the people who stayed out pretty much have to stay out; spite is a powerful motivator for Alexander II, and at bottom Nappy III wants the kleindeutsch Germany to emerge because he thinks it's safer for him, for some reason. So the Germans will have to save themselves.

The needle guns are a good start, sure, but I don't think they're enough. We need to screw up Prussia's transport and supply, I think. They probably lose if the war enters 1867, definitely if we get close to 1868, because they just don't have the money and supply stockpiles for a long war. Can we somehow destroy their rail network so that the Prussians can't advance in Bohemia for crap, even if they're winning the battles? (I think Hanover and Bavaria are lost causes).

[Sapiento]

I agree that the people who stayed out pretty much have to stay out; spite is a powerful motivator for Alexander II, and at bottom Nappy III wants the kleindeutsch Germany to emerge because he thinks it's safer for him, for some reason. So the Germans will have to save themselves.

The needle guns are a good start, sure, but I don't think they're enough. We need to screw up Prussia's transport and supply, I think. They probably lose if the war enters 1867, definitely if we get close to 1868, because they just don't have the money and supply stockpiles for a long war. Can we somehow destroy their rail network so that the Prussians can't advance in Bohemia for crap, even if they're winning the battles? (I think Hanover and Bavaria are lost causes).

That's correct. In OTL the Prussians had problems with the bohemian population, and this in the few weeks they stayed there. This could have become a full scale revolt, if the Austrian army had fought longer.

And the Prussian army had problems with diseases, causing them several hundred deads and disabling even more. This could become a problem, too, if the war lasts longer.

[Redbeard]

Königsgratz wasn't the clever and certain Prussian victory it is usuallay seen as today, but rather the very lucky culmination of a messy campaign. The battle wasn't well recon'ed and the Prussians expected only a monir enemy force but nevertheless succeeeded in engaging just in time to overwhelm the enemy. I'll claim that we only need minor butterflyish PoD's to instead see the Prussian army be defeated and destroyed in detail - Moltke or not. But letting Moltke choke in an Apfel-strudel could indeed make time tough for the Prussians.

With the Prussian army out of the game I guess a lot of Prussia's neighbours will see their chance. The Russians might turn up just to get a part of the loot while there is time, and the Danes will look for revenge for 1864. In Austria the Hungarians will not have the same opportunities to press for privileges and a federal state is more probable. I could imagine the Austrians next turning on Italy, to get back the rich bites there, but will most certainly be opposed by the French. So a French-Austrian war not very long after. If this turns out a clear Autrian victory I could imagine the Habsburgs somehow reclaiming the HRE - why not? If a French victory we'll see a 2nd Napoleonic War with about the same participants as the first.

A "funny" PoD could be if the factory manufactoring the needles in the Neddle-gun burns down or a shipment of new needles is somehow lost. The needle after a number of shots got shortened meaning an increasing number of misfires. Now imagine the Prussian army running out of needles in the middle of the campign - the Austrian's percussion muzzle loaders will appear wonders of well proven technology in comparison.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[Faeelin]

With the Prussian army out of the game I guess a lot of Prussia's neighbours will see their chance. The Russians might turn up just to get a part of the loot while there is time, and the Danes will look for revenge for 1864. In Austria the Hungarians will not have the same opportunities to press for privileges and a federal state is more probable. I could imagine the Austrians next turning on Italy, to get back the rich bites there, but will most certainly be opposed by the French. So a French-Austrian war not very long after. If this turns out a clear Autrian victory I could imagine the Habsburgs somehow reclaiming the HRE - why not? If a French victory we'll see a 2nd Napoleonic War with about the same participants as the first.


Mmm. Napoleon III doesn't strike me as stupid enough to take on all of Europe. Who knows? Maybe he allies with Prussia and Italy against Austria, in the Franco-Austrian war of 1871.

[Grey Wolf]

The territorial ambitions of the smaller German states should not be overlooked - certainly Bavaria and Wurttemburg had ambitions to assimilate some of their neighbours in the South, even if these conflicted with each other. For example, Bavaria wanted Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, and in a Prussian defeat would presumably get it as spoils of war. Bavaria also hoped to link up its two constituent parts of the old kingdom and the Palatinate. Wurttemburg on the other hand aimed at consolidation with Baden.

A victorious Confederation would also leave Hesse-Kassel and Nassau as independent powers of some note in the centre of Germany, and of course Hannover as an independent kingdom in the North. The fact that they may have been defeated on the field will make little difference, as by being associated with the victor they will not only get back what they had lost, but hope to gain more - rather like Italy in OTL.

One might also wonder at the fate of Prussia's allies in the light of a Prussian defeat

Grey Wolf