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Paul Spring
September 1st, 2005, 03:18 AM
I found an old thread from late 2004 asking about possible developments if Constantine had never converted to Christianity in the 4th century. I started a timeline, which I have modified and expanded a little. Here are the first few decades:


C. 282 AD - an 8 year old boy named Flavius Valerius Constantinus, son of an officer named Constantius in the Roman army, dies after a sudden illness.

303 AD - Emperor Diocletian launches the last and largest persecution of Christians within the Roman Empire

305 AD - Emperor Diocletian abdicates as Emperor, leaving a system of 2 senior emperors and 2 junior emperors that he hopes will ensure a stable succession (which it totally fails to do)

306 AD - Constantius dies in the province of Britannia with no son to succeed him

314 - 316 War between Maxentius, ruler of the western Empire, and Licinius, ruler of the Eastern Empire. Licinius is ultimately victorious as many of Maxentius’ troops are disaffected and change sides. Believing that he can not rule the entire empire at once, Licinius appoints Aurelius Valens as co-emperor, responsible for the western part of the empire.

317 - Licinius and Valens issue a general edict of religious toleration, ending the persecutions of Christians (which had been less and less common in the previous few years)

319 - 321 A series of synods are held by the various Christian communities, the main ones being in Antioch, Alexandria, Nicomedia, Carthage, and Rome. They attempt to reach agreement on many questions of doctrine and practice, with very limited success.

320 – 360 – The general trend continues of people in towns and cities turning away from traditional, regional, ritualistic religions and turning towards religions with universal claims that addressed issues like the fate of the soul, personal salvation, the nature of the universe, good and evil, and personal moral conduct.
With Christianity tolerated but not given preferential treatment, however, there is a more “level playing field” between different religions. Some older favorites like the worship of Isis, Demeter, Artemis, and Mithras continue to attract considerable numbers, with Mithraism remaining very popular in the army. More traditional, regional worship and cults remain very strong in the countryside, although the influence of personal “mystery” or “salvation” religions is felt in some rural areas as well. One major new religion that spreads more widely than in OTL is Manichaeanism, which will become a significant competitor to Christianity.

325 - Licinius decides to adopt Nicomedia in Asia Minor as his permanent capital, and pushes ambitious building projects in the city. In the west, Valens does much the same thing with Augusta Trevirorum in eastern Gaul, and Mediolanum in northern Italy.

328 - Licinius dies suddenly, leaving the throne to his young son Magentius. The “power behind the throne” in the east is actually Martinianus, who holds the position of Magister Officiorum.

329 - Martinianus deposes Magentius, has him placed under house arrest, and later quietly murdered when he is out of the public view. For some reason, Martinanus also becomes suspicious of the loyalty of the Christians in the eastern empire, and renews the persecution.

330 - Valens invades the eastern empire, declaring his intention to overthrow the murderer and usurper Martinianus.

331 - 332 Valens defeats Martinianus’ forces in a series of battles and sieges, until Martinianus flees with a few followers to the Persians. Most Christians in the eastern Empire welcome the victory of Valens, which ends the renewed persecutions.

333 - Valens decides to stay in the Eastern Empire, and leaves his capable young son Aurelian II in charge of the western empire. He keeps Nicomedia as his eastern capital, but also plans to enlarge and strengthen the nearby city of Byzantium, along the Bosphorus straits. In the recent war, his troops faced a difficult siege at that place, and were only able to capture it due to treachery on the part of one of the garrison’s officers.

334 – 337 - Valens fights wars against the Persians. Martinianus sneaks back into the Empire and attempts to raise a revolt, but he is captured and executed.

337 - In Alexandria, tension rises between rival groups of Christians, the Arians and Athanasians, who have opposing views on the nature of Christ. When rioting breaks out, imperial garrison troops have to quell the rebellion. Valens issues an edict instituting tough penalties for anyone disturbing the peace over religious disputes.

338 - 345 – The Arian/Athanasian dispute spreads to other parts of the Empire, and other disputes break out between different Christian communities. Nevertheless, Christianity still continues to gain in popularity throughout much of the empire.

347 – Valens dies, leaving the Eastern Empire to his younger son Licinius II.

348 – 352 – Another war between the Eastern Roman Empire and Sassanid Persia results in few gains for either side.

350 – Death of Aurelian II in the west after a sudden illness. In the absence of a surviving son, he passes authority to Claudius III, his most gifted general. (The first Claudius was the one who ruled in the mid 1st century AD, the second Claudius was a soldier emperor in the mid 3rd century.) Claudius continues the policy of general religious toleration.

353 – Marcian, the general in charge of Roman legions in Britannia, revolts against Claudius III.

354 – Councils at Rome and Carthage fail to resolve theological disputes among Christians in the western part of the Empire.

Marcian’s forces invade Gaul. Frankish and Allemanni tribesmen also invade this year.

355 – Claudius III defeats Franks and Allemanni, but Marcian is able to take control of parts of Gaul.

356 – Claudius III and Marcian meet at Trevirorum (Trier) and agree to partition Gaul between them. Secretly, however, both intend to attack the other as soon as an opportunity presents itself.

Most major construction at the expanded city of Byzantium finishes, completing the expansion project begun by Valens 23 years earlier.

Archdevil
September 1st, 2005, 08:50 AM
I think he only converted on his deathbed, to Arianism no less.
Let's say he drops death unexpectedly a few days earlier and you have no conversion, but still the same timeline. :D

With a weaker role for the Christians and several equally strong religions in the empire, you might prevent the persecution of pagans which pretty much began as soon as Christianity was made the state religion.

Midgard
September 1st, 2005, 03:16 PM
I'd say conversion or not, it would be easier to butterfly away Theodosius, who AFAIK was the first Emperor to treat Christianity as a state religion (even though Constantine and his immediate successors did show some preference, difference has to be made between personal conversion and informal support and active persecution of non-Christians, which did not occur until Theodosius took charge).

The other potential issue with the timeline here is that Constantine had a number of half-brothers, who pretty much were slaughtered during Constans' reign (Julian the Apostate was the son of one of them), so Constantius would have had a successor (not to mention that his second wife was related to one of the other Emperors during Diocletian's era AFAIK - so there are a number of relations there that could make their succession easier) - the question would be, of course, who the successor would have been, and how he would have differed from Constantine in terms of abilities, policies, and such.

LordKalvan
September 1st, 2005, 11:41 PM
Emperors come and go, and on the long run they do not really affect the trend. What changed the rules of the game was having Christianity declared state religion, and consequently having the emperor supporting orthodox doctrine (orthodox by definition, it might as well be Arianism: still it would be the orthodox faith for the empire).
If the emperors stay out of the religious racket, and keep concentrated just on the traditional issues (worship what you want, but pay taxes, don't revolt, don't riot), it is an easy bet that Christianity would fragment into a number of competing sects (it happened OTL, with orthodoxism enforced by the empire!).
This would also result in a better environment for other religions (Mithraism and Manicheism first of all), and it also likely to trigger an even greater cross-pollination between religions. My guess is that TTL would be likely to be "better" than OTL, in terms of freedom of thought. I do agree with Heinlein that freedom in a given place and time is usually proportional to the number of competing religions.

ShawnEndresen
September 2nd, 2005, 12:50 AM
Alas, the Arianist heresy denies the possibility of a stable and fixed social order, so it will be suppressed in favor of some other confession the moment an Emperor comes along who makes religious decisions from practical considerations. If the Emperor still matters; being the state religion of a practically non-existent state is not a tactical advantage in the proselytization game.

Freedom, particularly freedom of thought, is a horror that Rome was built to stand against. Chaos and social disorder is something they literally fear more than death in many cases. Rome has religious toleration only so long as a practical man cannot distinguish between the competing confessions, or can see that they will never be more than a harmless minority. So a tolerant, multiconfessional Roman Empire is never, ever going to happen no matter what the Christian patriarchs and Emperors cook up together. One faith is going to emerge as dominant, and the version of Christianity which survived did so because it had several practical advantages over its major competitors.

The real question, then, is how long the Emperors attempt to keep the moribund civic religion propped up, and what they decide to replace it with when they finally give up. Mithracism is an interesting possibility, as is the cult of Sol Invictus, or some other (Nestorian, Monophysite, etc) branch of Christianity. Christianity is still overwhelmingly likely to dominate, but it may well be an interestingly different Christianity.

AMBOMB
September 2nd, 2005, 04:51 PM
Alas, the Arianist heresy denies the possibility of a stable and fixed social order, so it will be suppressed in favor of some other confession the moment an Emperor comes along who makes religious decisions from practical considerations. If the Emperor still matters; being the state religion of a practically non-existent state is not a tactical advantage in the proselytization game.

Freedom, particularly freedom of thought, is a horror that Rome was built to stand against. Chaos and social disorder is something they literally fear more than death in many cases. Rome has religious toleration only so long as a practical man cannot distinguish between the competing confessions, or can see that they will never be more than a harmless minority. So a tolerant, multiconfessional Roman Empire is never, ever going to happen no matter what the Christian patriarchs and Emperors cook up together. One faith is going to emerge as dominant, and the version of Christianity which survived did so because it had several practical advantages over its major competitors.

The real question, then, is how long the Emperors attempt to keep the moribund civic religion propped up, and what they decide to replace it with when they finally give up. Mithracism is an interesting possibility, as is the cult of Sol Invictus, or some other (Nestorian, Monophysite, etc) branch of Christianity. Christianity is still overwhelmingly likely to dominate, but it may well be an interestingly different Christianity.

The version of Christianity which survived was the version Constantine converted to. Without that conversion, or a conversion by subsequent emperor, I don't see why Christianity would become the dominant religion.

ShawnEndresen
September 2nd, 2005, 05:42 PM
Christianity explicitly promises salvation for females. Its rivals--Manichaenism, Mithracism, Sol Invictus--explicitly deny the possibility. So half the population has only 1 real choice. Manichaenism requires literacy and asceticism, and no universalist version of it emerged in OTL (i.e., it presupposed that even a majority of those who adhered to its creed would fail to meet the requirements for salvation). Realistically, Christianity requires literacy as well, but it's a bit more flexible. Mithracism exalts vigorous activity like war and goes on a bit much about changing the world; the army and the unhappy underclass do make a powerful coalition, but it's a bit scary for farmers and merchants. I'm honestly not sure why Sol Invictus didn't spread better--perhaps too much quiet mysticism and inhaling strange fumes for visions, but then again, the other faiths had some of that too.

Christianity was, according to some sources, already the religion of about 40% of the Empire when Constantine converted. The civic religion, mystery cults, Judaism, various fringe religions and its three rival proselytizing faiths split that other 60% between them--so the Christians are already a large plurality. There's plenty of time to alter the Bible and the creed, but Constantine is too late to actually stop it.

AMBOMB
September 3rd, 2005, 05:05 PM
Christianity explicitly promises salvation for females. Its rivals--Manichaenism, Mithracism, Sol Invictus--explicitly deny the possibility. So half the population has only 1 real choice. Manichaenism requires literacy and asceticism, and no universalist version of it emerged in OTL (i.e., it presupposed that even a majority of those who adhered to its creed would fail to meet the requirements for salvation). Realistically, Christianity requires literacy as well, but it's a bit more flexible. Mithracism exalts vigorous activity like war and goes on a bit much about changing the world; the army and the unhappy underclass do make a powerful coalition, but it's a bit scary for farmers and merchants. I'm honestly not sure why Sol Invictus didn't spread better--perhaps too much quiet mysticism and inhaling strange fumes for visions, but then again, the other faiths had some of that too.

Christianity was, according to some sources, already the religion of about 40% of the Empire when Constantine converted. The civic religion, mystery cults, Judaism, various fringe religions and its three rival proselytizing faiths split that other 60% between them--so the Christians are already a large plurality. There's plenty of time to alter the Bible and the creed, but Constantine is too late to actually stop it.

Christianity was a pagan mystery religion at first. None of the pagan mystery religions differed radically from eachother. The Christianity that predominates today is different altogether from the original Christianity, and it didn't become dominant until after Constantine converted.

Faeelin
September 3rd, 2005, 05:21 PM
Mithracism exalts vigorous activity like war and goes on a bit much about changing the world; the army and the unhappy underclass do make a powerful coalition, but it's a bit scary for farmers and merchants.

Mithraism was also a mystery cult and not a popular religion, which puts it at a disadvantage.

Imajin
September 3rd, 2005, 05:32 PM
Christianity was a pagan mystery religion at first. None of the pagan mystery religions differed radically from eachother. The Christianity that predominates today is different altogether from the original Christianity, and it didn't become dominant until after Constantine converted.
Not really, Christianity was a variant of Judaism at first...

AMBOMB
September 4th, 2005, 01:37 AM
Not really, Christianity was a variant of Judaism at first...
It was a pagan mystery religion with Jewish elements, not a variant of Judaism.

Imajin
September 4th, 2005, 01:38 AM
It was a pagan mystery religion with Jewish elements, not a variant of Judaism.
That goes against everything I've learned about early Christianity.. If you are going to make massive claims, at least post a source or something...

AMBOMB
September 4th, 2005, 03:54 AM
That goes against everything I've learned about early Christianity.. If you are going to make massive claims, at least post a source or something...
The Jesus Mysteries.

Max Sinister
September 5th, 2005, 01:28 PM
Christianity was, according to some sources, already the religion of about 40% of the Empire when Constantine converted.

I read in my textbook about religion that only 10% were Christians when Constantine converted, but yours may be closer to reality.

Imajin
September 5th, 2005, 04:29 PM
The Jesus Mysteries.
Well, I could just as easily offer up my religion textbook, "Introduction to Catholic Christiantiy" :p

AMBOMB
September 5th, 2005, 05:47 PM
Well, I could just as easily offer up my religion textbook, "Introduction to Catholic Christiantiy" :p
You asked me for a source "or something". :p

DominusNovus
September 5th, 2005, 09:47 PM
Guys, before you get into a theological debate with AMBOMB, note that he doesn't believe that Jesus really existed.

ShawnEndresen
September 6th, 2005, 05:56 PM
Thanks for the warning, Dom :p

2 more cents from my pocket...Christianity was already shedding its mystery cult elements by Constantine's time. The sacrament of confession hadn't been properly worked out yet (Augustine's version is much different from the modern form), the Donatist and Pelagian heresies were still alive, but Arianism and Gnosticism had already been marginalized within the Christian church. A certain amount of discretion is required when you're doing something illegal, of course, but there's a big difference between keeping secrets because the government doesn't like you and keeping secrets because you think God doesn't like the overwhelming majority of your neighbors.

DominusNovus
September 7th, 2005, 12:59 AM
the Donatist and Pelagian heresies were still alive, but Arianism and Gnosticism had already been marginalized within the Christian church.
Well, I thought that Arianism gained quite a bit of favor for awhile after Constatine, and Arianism and Chalcedonism (Athanasianism, Orthodox Catholicism, whatever) jockeyed back and forth pretty intensely.

ShawnEndresen
September 7th, 2005, 06:04 PM
It'll never really die, because it's one of the ones that actually can't be refuted with Scripture; you can only use logic to tie an Arian in knots, or point out the practical problems which arise from it. Thus, people who read the Bible and prefer to think for themselves will occasionally be falling into it forever (Isaac Newton, anyone?). As literacy declines, so does independent analysis, so it's really the rot and collapse of the Empire which is defeating it.

AMBOMB
September 8th, 2005, 02:49 AM
Thanks for the warning, Dom :p

2 more cents from my pocket...Christianity was already shedding its mystery cult elements by Constantine's time. The sacrament of confession hadn't been properly worked out yet (Augustine's version is much different from the modern form), the Donatist and Pelagian heresies were still alive, but Arianism and Gnosticism had already been marginalized within the Christian church. A certain amount of discretion is required when you're doing something illegal, of course, but there's a big difference between keeping secrets because the government doesn't like you and keeping secrets because you think God doesn't like the overwhelming majority of your neighbors.
It wasn't like Christianity transformed from a pagan mystery religion into the religion we know today. Gnostic Christianity was stamped out by the Catholic church.

ShawnEndresen
September 8th, 2005, 07:04 PM
Well, Gregory the great hasn't come along yet, so no, it's not the Church we know. But the Gnostics were pretty thoroughly rejected and purged during the 3rd century, often enough with violence from other Christians. Constantine's conversion came shortly after they had been reduced to a few isolated and extremely paranoid communities.