Future Timelines

[Strategos' Risk]

Has anyone read any "realistic" future timelines? I'm talking about TLs that actually attempt to predict the near future. Realisticness means no giant leaps in space travel, no artificial intelligence, no crazy bio-engineering, no U.N. ruling the world, no quick fixes to hot conflict situations, or even if all of the above exist in the TL, the creators at least claimed that they were trying to predict the future accurately and realistically.

My favorite is this very detailed timeline ( http://www.studentgroups.ucla.edu/enigma/writing/fut-his/index.html) created by Enigma, a sci-fi club at UCLA in 1990. While it's very implausible, it at least avoids some things such as giant leaps of space travel.

However, there's still some very laughable stuff. I like to mention these old prediction timelines (especially pre-1991 ones) because they tend to feature things we worried about in the 80s, and don't even matter anymore nowadays. Some of the things from the timeline include:

AIDS turns out to be a bio-engineered virus.

The Libertarian Party breaks the 3rd party curse and in 1992 Dan Quayle is elected as president. He's supported by both militarist Gaens, the New Age movement, "Limboists", and Christian fundamentalists.

The U.S. stops the War on Drugs by legalizing them. Inexplicably, the TL goes on to say that cigarettes are banned in 2006 in the very next sentence.

South and Central America goes towards economic unification with a hand wave, yet the EU goes so badly that there's a war.

Killer bees turn out to be a big threat, eventually spreading as far north as Texas and the Southwest. Donald Trump is killed by a swarm (yes, it's in the TL, just read the link).

Anyhow, even if no one has any funny/interesting future prediction TLs (or at least any that fit my criteria), please skim the link and comment on how funny it is. Now.

I found the Enigma link here (http://www.orionsarm.com/links.html#timelines).

[Romulus Augustulus]

What about leaps in space travel in the far future? How's 2080s at the earliest?

[Cloudy Vortex]

I've always thought "This is the only planet we'll ever get, let's not waste it." So any FTL without FTL is fine with me, even if it's in 3005. But any future laws of physics and the application thereof might as well be magic, which is why SciFi been subsumed within Fantasy.

I'll never understand the Left's favorable attitude towards narcotics and hatred towards tobacco. Or, for that matter, the Right's opposite stance. I hate all abused drugs equally. :cool:

[Romulus Augustulus]

It's called the Alcubierre drive...clever use of a loophole.

[Cloudy Vortex]

I just read about Dislam, "just south of Makkah!!" funniest thing I've read all week. I don't care if this was written in the early '90s, what were these fools thinking? :rolleyes:

[Grey Wolf]

I've always thought "This is the only planet we'll ever get, let's not waste it." So any FTL without FTL is fine with me, even if it's in 3005. But any future laws of physics and the application thereof might as well be magic, which is why SciFi been subsumed within Fantasy.

I'll never understand the Left's favorable attitude towards narcotics and hatred towards tobacco. Or, for that matter, the Right's opposite stance. I hate all abused drugs equally. :cool:

Why not love them all equally ?

Surely thats more egalitarian

Grey Wolf

[Cloudy Vortex]

In the 2040's, an ion spacecraft propulsion system is designed and tested by the Pan-Asian Union. The drive is insanely expensive to build and operate, and no commercial or military uses are available yet.

The above is almost as bad. NASA already has used ion drive and says it's got even more exotic stuff in the pipeline. 'Course it's been saying that for a while.

[Darkest]

The goal of 'The Empire of Mankind', my now-dead future history, was to present a completely realistic future without killing off humanity (which Mr. Bondoc and others say is very possible).

I had the timeline up to 2070, with a few cool sequences (The Global Depression, the Magnilysis, the Revanchist Wars, the Great Unification War). And throughout the 21st century, the story is set completely on Earth (actually, they did have a few bases on Mars and on the Moon, a situation synonymous to the scientists in Antarctica).

However, after I received new information, I decided to rewrite it all. Now, in a more realistic fashion, there will be more dystopia, including water wars, devestating plagues, the peak of oil and then natural gas and so forth, splintering of nations, civil wars, resource wars, world wars... It'll be a lot more fun, basically. :)

I wish people could read my rough draft, but I am too much of a perfectionist. :) I'll be able to start releasing installments of Version 2 in a week or so, I hope everyone will enjoy it. See ya then. :cool:

[Strategos' Risk]

Good, I look forward to reading it. Other people: you guys haven't seen any other future/prediction timelines at all? Not even in some backpage of a long-dead RPG site (updated c. 1997)? Aren't there a lot of futurist sites out there?

[Darkest]

I've looked for such timelines, no idea where to find them.

There should be a futurehistory.com discussion website, or at least a sub-forum on our own board...

[csa945]

I've written one as part of a school assignment. For a class called America's Future, part of the final was to write the State of the Union speech for 2015. While it does reflect my own personal political views, I tried to, especially considering it would be graded, make it generally realistic.

[Wendell]

I've written one as part of a school assignment. For a class called America's Future, part of the final was to write the State of the Union speech for 2015. While it does reflect my own personal political views, I tried to, especially considering it would be graded, make it generally realistic.
Care to share some additional thoughts?

[csa945]

Here it is. I say again, I know it's very politically biased, and I wrote it fairly early this year, so some of the nearer-future projections may be already way out in left field where they weren't just a few months ago. (Social Security Reform and no mention of Judge Roberts, for instance.)

Background:
2005-2006:
• Shia Majority in Iraq drafts constitution, protecting minority rights and civil liberties. Violence in that country slowly quells, with a few sporadic bursts.
• Other Middle-Eastern nations begin to slowly put democratic reforms into place.
• Chief Justice Rehnquist dies. Justice Anthony Scalia is promoted to replace him. Democrats in the Senate continue to block the president’s nominees.
• Social Security Reform is passed, allowing younger workers to opt out of SS payments, instead putting money into private accounts.
• The stock market explodes as a result, with the Dow shooting up to 12,500. Following this is substantial job growth.
• As a result of success in the Middle East and at home, Republicans grow even further in congress. One notable victory is that of former mayor, Rudy Giuliani defeating Hilary Clinton in New York.
• Bill Frist is succeeded to the Senate by Harold Ford, Jr. and Mitch McConnell is elected Senate Majority Leader.
• Arnold Schwarzenegger, however, is defeated in his bid for re-election as governor of California.
• Without the Democratic filibuster, Emilio Garza is finally appointed to the Supreme Court and Bolton receives a permanent appointment to the UN.
• California passes a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.
2007:
• Palestine is recognized as an independent country under President Mahmoud Abbas. US and EU military train the Palestinian armed forces. Jerusalem remains in Israeli control.
• Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is voted out of office, defeated by Yosef Lapid.
• The 9th Circuit Federal Court in California makes a landmark decision, finding that the state must accept marriage licenses issued in Massachusetts to homosexual couples and that California must issue such licenses itself, citing that the Federal Constitution requires all states to recognize each other’s documents.
• As a result of the 9th Circuit Court’s ruling, the American people rally behind the Federal Marriage Amendment, as they see it as the only means by which traditional marriage can be preserved.
• A populist uprising in Iran overthrows the Fundamentalist regime there, establishing the Democratic-Republic of Iran. The Iranians disavow nuclear arms and allow UN arms inspectors to enter the country
• The Saudis loosen restrictions on voting requirements in their own country.
• The presidential race begins to heat up with Rudy Giuliani, Condi Rice, Bill Frist, Mitt Romney, George Pataki, Rick Santorum, Chuck Hagel, Bill Owens, Newt Gingrich, and Elizabeth Dole entering the fray on the Republican side. Notably absent is John McCain, who has stated his intentions of retiring, due to health concerns, in 2010.
• On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, Wes Clark, John Kerry, John Edwards, Mark Warner Al Gore, Evan Bayh, Bill Richardson, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, and Joe Biden vie for the nomination.
2008:
• The field is quickly whittled down to Edwards, Bayh, Richardson, Giuliani, Rice, Santorum, and Owens, with Richardson and Giuliani coming out on top in the end.
• Richardson picks Mark Warner, the governor of Virginia as his running mate, while Giuliani picks Condoleezza Rice as his.
• Due to the wide appeal of both candidates, many states that were not in play in the 2004 election are subject to heavy campaigning on both sides.
• Richardson, despite his impressive credentials, is unable to compete with Rudy Giuliani’s prestige and popularity as “America’s Mayor.”
• Giuliani takes not only the major battleground states in the Midwest and Florida, but New York as well.
• Despite the landslide, DNC Chairman Howard Dean blames the capture of Osama bin-Laden in the mountains of Afghanistan in early October by US forces as the reason for Richardson’s defeat.
2009:
• In early 2009, soon after President Giuliani’s inauguration, Fidel Castro of Cuba dies of a stroke. He left no clear successor, so the country breaks into civil war between leftists and democrats.
• Giuliani sends US Marines to intervene in the conflict. The leftist fighters are largely routed and the leaders of the victorious faction draft a democratic European-style constitution.
• Opening diplomatic relations with Cuba for the first time since the Batista regime fell in 1959, Giuliani appoints Senator Mel Martinez as the US ambassador to Cuba. Former governor Jeb Bush is appointed to the senate to replace Martinez.
• Despite bin-Laden’s capture, terrorism continues to be a problem in the Middle East, Europe, and the Far East.
• The secular Ba’athist regime in Syria is overthrown and replaced by a fundamentalist government, headed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
• North Korea continues to make veiled threats of nuclear force.
2010:
• Republicans keep a strong majority in both houses of congress.
• Under Hugo Chavez, Venezuela invades Colombia and occupies it under the pretense of fighting insurgents launched from that country. Due to his alliance with Beijing, the US does little.
• Mahmoud Abbas is assassinated by a fundamentalist Muslim for “handing Jerusalem to the Zionists.” His successor, Abdul Mroue, pledges that he will continue to work for peace and aid Israel in fighting the terrorists that threaten it.
• Puerto Rico becomes an official state.
• Great Britain holds a parliamentary election. While the Labour Party holds its consensus, Tony Blair steps down as Prime Minister, allowing Gordon Brown to come into office.
2011:
• Fundamentalists seize power in the island nation of Bahrain in the Persian Gulf. Michael Jackson is killed when militiamen storm the compound he moved to in 2006.
• The US and British royal marines are dispatched from Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar.
• As Bahrain’s royal family and the entire ruling class were killed during the uprising, a democratic constitution is drafted.
• The race for the Democratic presidential nomination gets underway. Harold Ford, Barack Obama, Mark Warner, Gavin Newsom, and Blanche Lincoln also vie for the nomination. Barack Obama clinches the nomination.
• A second attempt to ratify an EU Constitution fails.
2012:
• Obama picks Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas as his running mate.
• Pervez Musharaf of Pakistan grants a constitution to be drafted for his country, with projected presidential elections in 2015.
• Chavez moves into Panama, seizing the canal. The US still does not act.
• The 2012 election is more of a fight for the Giuliani-Rice ticket than the 2008 election was, but President Giuliani is re-elected, this time without Arkansas and Pennsylvania, states which they won in 2008.
2013:
• Saudi Arabia’s king agrees to become a constitutional monarch, accepting a constitution similar in form to that of the Magna Carta.
• North Korea tests an atomic device, giving the world definitive proof that it does, indeed, possess nuclear weapons. Secretary of Defense Tommy Franks proposes immediate action in the Korean peninsula. China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, and a number of European countries pledge their resolve to bring an end to the threat that a nuclear North Korea poses.
• President Giuliani leads the world in conducting economic sanctions against the already-starving rogue state. These actions are protested loudly by a few as inhumane, harming only the people of North Korea, but most see the need for sanctions.
• Kim Jong Il threatens to launch a missile at Seoul if the US does not withdraw its forces from the Korean peninsula and end the economic sanctions.
• Giuliani refuses, instead, ordering a strike against the North Korean missile silos. Kim Jong Il responds to the destruction of his prized nuclear weapons by ordering scud missile strikes against South Korea. This prompts conventional action lead by the US. Many NATO countries, with the exceptions of Great Britain, Poland, and other small Eastern European states, refuse to take part in the action, accusing Giuliani of war crimes. China and Russia, however, agree to assist the US and to give aid and asylum to the refugees that cross into their borders.
• The Second Korean War lasts little more than half a year. Rather than being taken alive, Kim Jong Il commits suicide when Coalition forces enter Pyongyang. The North is absorbed into the Republic of Korea and the slow process of reconstruction begins. Many European countries and Canada refuse to participate in the reconstruction.
• Several legislators propose that the United States withdraw from NATO and form a new alliance that reflects the changed nature of the world. In light of the lack of aid Europe has given to the US since the 21st Century began, many begin to listen.
2014:
• With popular support, the United States withdraws from NATO. Without its largest non-European member, many European countries question why NATO should exist at all when there is the EU, and thus NATO is completely disbanded.
• Negotiations begin with various countries that have been (or have become) consistent US allies over the last decade – the UK, Poland, Australia, Israel, Palestine, Iraq, Iran, Korea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, etc.
• The Global Security Treaty Organization – GSTO – is formed within a few months of NATO’s disbandment with the stated purpose of defending the security of the US and its allies against the threats posed by terrorism and rogue states.
• The Islamic Republic of Syria is becoming more of a problem. There is mounting evidence that Shaik al-Zarqawi is sending suicide bombers and assassins into Israel and Palestine, assumedly in hopes of setting off a war between the two countries.
• The memory of the costly, but now resolved, war in Korea lays heavy in the minds of most Americans. They do not favor military action against the former Iraqi insurgent’s government.
• The government of Taiwan elects new leadership – leadership that is far more independent than that of previous years. That government has made strong implications that it wishes to officially declare its independence from mainland China.
• China responds with rumblings of “reasserting their authority in Taiwan,” as well as sending troops to Venezuela and its occupied territories to aid Chavez in counter-insurgency.
• The United States and its allies begin to move troops into place along the Iraq-Syria border and in Australia, Japan, and Korea, preparing for war with either China or Syria in case peace talks fail.
2015:
• Condoleeza Rice announces her intentions to run for president in 2016. Senator Bush of Florida, General Luis Alvarez, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Bill Frist, now the governor of Tennessee, and Senator Tom DeLay of Texas also join the fray.
• Democrats include Blanche Lincoln, Barack Obama, Governor Robert Reich of Massachusetts, and Senator Lucia Sanchez of California.
• The Chinese Nationalist Party in Taiwan ends its political opposition to formal independence and attempts a coup against the ruling party in Taipei, spawning a full-scale civil war.
• Both the Chinese and the United States threaten war if either side dispatches troops to quell the fighting.
• Representatives of the United States, Taiwan and China are able to strike a deal at a peace summit in Osaka.
o China will withdraw its troops from South America.
o The United States and China will agree to a joint intervention in the Taiwanese crisis, the US and the PRC dispatching an equal number of forces to the island
o Taiwan will agree to an official plebiscite to determine its status – either a full province of China, or complete independence. All parties will agree to honor the results of the plebiscite. All foreign forces will evacuate from Taiwan no less than one year after the said plebiscite.
o The Venezuela Confederation will agree to dissolve, returning autonomy to Colombia and Panama.
o In light of Venezuela’s abuse of its treaty of alliance with China, the People’s Republic dissolved the agreement.
• The United States dispatched ten thousand marines to Taiwan, accompanied by an equal number of PLA troops.
• By the end of 2015, the fighting stops, and the plebiscite is held, with Taiwan voting to return to the People’s Republic.
• Chavez refuses to withdraw his troops from Panama and Venezuela.
• China condemns Venezuela’s occupation as unlawful and offers aid to the United States in removing Venezuela’s forces.
2016:
• Condoleeza Rice and Blanche Lincoln win the nominations of their respective parties.
• The US, China, and the UK propose action against Venezuela in the UN Security Council. The resolution is vetoed by France and Russia.
• The GSTO meets at its headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia to discuss the matter of Venezuela.
• During the conference, Venezuelan ships fire on a Cuban patrol boat.
• The GSTO condemns the attack. The Chinese join the condemnation.
• The United States Air Force begins to launch strikes against strategic targets in Panama and the Caribbean.
• The last US troops leave Taipei.

EDIT: I would add that I do realize that some of these events are less likely than others.

[Smuz]

I'll never understand the Left's favorable attitude towards narcotics and hatred towards tobacco. Or, for that matter, the Right's opposite stance. I hate all abused drugs equally. :cool:

Possibly because they believe in recreational drug use rather than being slaved to a habit. Nicotine's supposedly as addictive as crack or heroin, which you generally won't find the left pushing.

Mostly the left seems to want to legalise relatively non-addictive and non-harmful drugs like cannabis and certain hallucinogens. Of course, I doubt 20 joints a day would be any better than 20 cigarettes, but...

[Jer8m8]

I remember reading a book a few years ago, that I thought was pretty good at the time in its predictions, not sure how relevant it still is:

Earth, by David Brin

[Hendryk]

I thought Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy gave a more realistic account than most of future history, especially because of his two basic assumptions that:
--terraforming and colonizing Mars won't directly solve any of Earth's most pressing problems, and
--those who settle on Mars hoping to "get away from politics" will find even more of it on the red planet.

[MerryPrankster]

Michael Jackson killed by Islamic fundamentalists in Bahrain? LOL!

I just read about him visting the oil shieks a few minutes ago in my local paper.

[csa945]

Michael Jackson killed by Islamic fundamentalists in Bahrain? LOL!

I just read about him visting the oil shieks a few minutes ago in my local paper.

Yeah; I added that part in a month or so ago after I saw a news story about him moving into, or at least scouting out, a mansion near the royal palace in Bahrain, that he might be leaving Neverland for good.

[Imajin]

I'm going to say that csa's timeline is very implausible, but then again, in another thread I predicted France ruling over the British Isles, so I have no grounds to talk :p

[rewster]

It was only a little implausible... except for that line about California passing a gay marriage ban as an ammendment to their constitution. Californians would never do that if simply to prevent all kinds of backlash... the very large gay community there would do something to retaliate I'm sure. Also Californians would never do that because they are rather liberal as a whole. Have you been to Cali ever, csa? I mean other than Fresno or Bakersfield?

[Glen]

Possibly because they believe in recreational drug use rather than being slaved to a habit. Nicotine's supposedly as addictive as crack or heroin, which you generally won't find the left pushing.

Mostly the left seems to want to legalise relatively non-addictive and non-harmful drugs like cannabis and certain hallucinogens. Of course, I doubt 20 joints a day would be any better than 20 cigarettes, but...

Worse, in terms of cancer risk. But that is like saying which lethal substance is more poisonous.

Smoking ANYTHING is probably not a good idea...

[Stalin]

I started writing a dystopic Future History at the start of the year, but put on hiatus. I'm sure I'll do a lot of editing, but here's what I have thus far:


Interesting Times

2005: In a stunning victory for Conservative Catholics, Joseph Ratzinger is elected pope.[1]

2006: In Germany, the CDU wins the 2006 election on a platform of restoring the German economy and cutting unemployment. Angela Merkel becomes Chancellor.

? 2007: Nicholas Sarkozy elected President of France.

July, 7, 2007: On the 10th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China, pro-democracy activists and nationalists plan a series of protests against the Chinese government. What follows is a brutal crack down on dissidents known as the Hong Kong Massacre. Hundreds are shot or beaten to death by the army, many who flee disappear.

November 2, 2008: Michael Pence (R) is elected President.

April 26, 2009: Islamic Terrorist bombings in Germany lead to the deaths of 1,490. [3]

August 2, 2009: PATRIOT Act II is passed by congress. Civil libertarians complain, but their protests are largely ignored.

October, 17 2009: President Pence announces that the US will withdraw from the Republic of Mesopotamia.

2010: In Germany, the CDU narrowly maintains its majority in the Bundestag. Angela Merkel remains Chancellor.

March 9, 2010: In response to continued problems around the US border and military bases, the SECURE Acts are passed. Among the provisions included are increases in base and border patrol security, in addition to creation of a National ID card (to be carried at all times).

April 2010: Border skirmishes and conflicts break out in Bangladesh, India, and China, as mass migration occurs toward Burma.

January-February, 2012: Beginning of catastrophic thermohaline collapse. Ocean circulation patterns change, bringing less warm water north to Europe and causing an immediate shift in the weather in Northern Europe and eastern North America.

July, 13, 2012: Riot Act passed in the USA; Police given broad powers to quell disturbances.

November 2, 2012: Michael Pence is re-elected by a narrow margin.

? 2012: Nicholas Sarkozy is re-elected President of France.

December, 5, 2012: President Sarkozy implements various reforms and reductions in social services.

January, 30, 2013: Beginnings of Civil War in Saudi Arabia.

April, 18, 2013: A terrorist bomb attack leaves the Eiffel tower partially destroyed, and tilting dangerously towards the River Seine.

June 5, 2013: Parts of the Netherlands are declared uninhabitable following continued flooding.

August 9, 2013: Islamist insurgency storms the capital of the former Republic of Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Mecca is proclaimed.

January-February 2014: The governments of Zambia and Botswana collapse amidst growing unrest and a population crash caused by the spread of AIDS. Civil unrest and outright anarchy in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Namibia, and other Africa states soon follows.

January-May 2012: Severe drought and cold push Scandinavian populations southward.

2014: The CDU loses its majority in the Bundestag; the SPD sees an unexpected surge in membership.

January 27, 2015: Following a sharp rise in gas prices, Ration riots break out in Germany. Limited Martial Law is soon declared in some cities.

January-March. Cities throughout Northern, Western Europe (particularly France) experience problems with their water supply due to continued drought brought on by the disruption of the Gulf Stream. [2]

March 8, 2015: The US government announces that European immigration to United States has more than doubled in the last three years.

May 17, 2015: Japan and Russia sign a strategic agreement, known as the Sakhalin-Siberian Pact. Under it, ownership of Siberian and Sakhalin energy resources is clearly defined, as is a military alliance between both nations.

April, 20, 2015: Japan and Russia begin joint construction of a lunar base and mining operation; the race to develop lunar Helium-3 mines begins.

[1] I predicted that before it happened

[2] Revised

[3] I'll expand on this later.

[Gladi]

April 26, 2009: Islamic Terrorist bombings in Germany lead to the deaths of 1,490. National ID card legislation, of the kind implemented in the UK already, is proposed.


Bright day
Ahem not to be mean but Germans have pretty much that (of course minus much of the new bio info) for 70 years.

And how come the food and water problems of Europe? If Ukraine had modern equipmnet AFAIK it could produce most out food on its own (and AFAIK USA could possible provide food for most of world). And cooling down would not create desert out of all Europe... As of now we are producing food and water in multiplities of our need...

[Smuz]

Backing these criticisms up, I'm a little startled by the scale of the terrorist attacks in Germany. Also, what about the official abandonment of the Netherland's consensus policy in favour of nationalism and almost blatant anti-immigrant, anti-muslim policies, contributing to poor intra- EU relations?

[Stalin]

Bright day
Ahem not to be mean but Germans have pretty much that (of course minus much of the new bio info) for 70 years.

Well, pardon my ignorance then.


And how come the food and water problems of Europe? If Ukraine had modern equipmnet AFAIK it could produce most out food on its own (and AFAIK USA could possible provide food for most of world). And cooling down would not create desert out of all Europe... As of now we are producing food and water in multiplities of our need...

Note that a thermohaline collapse/ North Atlantic drift slowdown would not just cause a cool down, it would also result in a less temperate Europe (there would be less moisture and other precipitation entering from the Gulf Stream). It wouldn't necessarily make all of Europe completely siberian, but it would mean more arid and colder conditions in Northern as well as Western Europe [1]. But I'm revising that portion of Europe considerably, because of what you said about the Ukraine.

[1] How badly, I obviously don't know.

[NFR]

Why in Hell would ownership of Siberian and Sakhalin energy resources need to be 'clearly defined'? It's all bloody Russian, all of it, and whether Japan likes it or not is utterly irrelevant. They can talk to Strategic Rocket Forces if they have complaint.

[Stalin]

Why in Hell would ownership of Siberian and Sakhalin energy resources need to be 'clearly defined'? It's all bloody Russian, all of it, and whether Japan likes it or not is utterly irrelevant. They can talk to Strategic Rocket Forces if they have complaint.

That's due to poor wording and editing on my part (I accidently deleted an earlier entry). Basically, various Japanese corporations along with the government invest heavily in (and around) Siberia as well as the Sakhalin peninsula. The Russians accuse the Japanese of drilling on un-paid for land (stealing). Eventually, the Russian government sets stricter limits to Japanese involvement, but the Japanese still manage to buy more land.

Trust me, I'm going to be doing a lot of editing on this for the next few months.

[Weapon M]

Maybe Japan opens up a crate or two of good Vodka, then everything is on the table for discussion, da?

[NFR]

That's due to poor wording and editing on my part (I accidently deleted an earlier entry). Basically, various Japanese corporations along with the government invest heavily in (and around) Siberia as well as the Sakhalin peninsula. The Russians accuse the Japanese of drilling on un-paid for land (stealing). Eventually, the Russian government sets stricter limits to Japanese involvement, but the Japanese still manage to buy more land.

Trust me, I'm going to be doing a lot of editing on this for the next few months.

Sakhalin is an Island dammit.

And it's pure fantasy that Russia will let Japan get sole play in Siberian and Far-Eastern resources. That's what China is for, balancing Japan.

[Stalin]

Sakhalin is an Island dammit.

And it's pure fantasy that Russia will let Japan get sole play in Siberian and Far-Eastern resources. That's what China is for, balancing Japan.

I've seen the Sakhalin Island (as well as the area around it) described as the "Sakhalin peninsula." It's technically an island, but it's so close to land that I don't see a point in nitpicking about what it's called. Western map makers definitely didn't for a long time.

As for the rest: They don't have sole play. They have a limited, if fairly large, investment in Siberia. I don’t see what’s so terribly implausible about that.

[Wendell]

Who is Michael Pence?

[csa945]

Who is Michael Pence?

A Republican Congressman from eastern Indiana. I got a chance to see him at the College Republicans nat'l convention last summer. He's a good speaker and pretty charismatic. He's still a long shot for pres in '08, though. He'll have to unseat Senator Evan Bayh in 2010 first, if that's even possible.

[csa945]

October, 17 2009: President Pence announces that the US will withdraw from the Republic of Mesopotamia.

Did Iraq break up into smaller countries or did it just change its name?

[Wendell]

A Republican Congressman from eastern Indiana. I got a chance to see him at the College Republicans nat'l convention last summer. He's a good speaker and pretty charismatic. He's still a long shot for pres in '08, though. He'll have to unseat Evan Bayh in 2010 first.
Unseat Evan Bayh in 2010 before the 2008 Election? :confused:

[csa945]

Unseat Evan Bayh in 2010 before the 2008 Election? :confused:

No I meant run for pres in general. If he could unseat Bayh in 2010, he'd have a better chance in 2012.

[Wendell]

No I meant run for pres in general. If he could unseat Bayh in 2010, he'd have a better chance in 2012.
Thank you, by the way.

[csa945]

It was only a little implausible... except for that line about California passing a gay marriage ban as an ammendment to their constitution. Californians would never do that if simply to prevent all kinds of backlash... the very large gay community there would do something to retaliate I'm sure. Also Californians would never do that because they are rather liberal as a whole. Have you been to Cali ever, csa? I mean other than Fresno or Bakersfield?

No. I've never been to California. (BTW, I don't deny that that was probably the least plausible part). I do realize that there are a lot of really liberal people in California, esp. in the big cities, but there are also a lot of conservatives, too (Orange County, I believe). There was only about a 9% in the popular vote between Bush and Kerry in California.

In any case, they did vote for Reagan just 21 years ago, so they might swing back to the right within the next ten.

[Wendell]

No. I've never been to California. (BTW, I don't deny that that was probably the least plausible part). I do realize that there are a lot of really liberal people in California, esp. in the big cities, but there are also a lot of conservatives, too (Orange County, I believe). There was only about a 9% in the popular vote between Bush and Kerry in California.

In any case, they did vote for Reagan just 21 years ago, so they might swing back to the right within the next ten.
But California conservatives are more Libertarian, and would oppose such an amendment.

[Stalin]

Did Iraq break up into smaller countries or did it just change its name?

Iraq changed its name shortly after the constitution was aproved. In practice, it's basically a Islamic Republic, albeit not as extreme as Iran (or as stable).

[NFR]

Normal people admit they are wrong, P, when confronted with an obvious error. By your brilliant line of arguement I now welcome you to Long Penninsula, New York. And do visit us at the British Penninsulas sometime.

As for Japan, let's have a lot, shall we?

May 17, 2015: Japan and Russia sign a strategic agreement, known as the Sakhalin-Siberian Pact. Under it, ownership of Siberian and Sakhalin energy resources is clearly defined, as is a military alliance between both nations.

What does that suggest to you? That Japan was stealing Russian oil? I suppose the normal reaction for nations with their oil stolen is to sign a treaty and then a military alliance with the offending nation, right? If the Japanese have just 'a limited, if fairly large, investment in Siberia', would Russia go to all that trouble and sign a bloody treaty (and an alliance, too, yeah sure)? It just doesn't make any sense. If as you said it is because they are 'stealing oil' all over the place, then that can be dealt with under existing laws (you don't think Russia has laws governing that, do you? If we are sufficiently irritated we'd just freeze all the shipments and assets), there's simply no reason why there'd need to be a separate treaty, and the alliance bit just came out of no where.

You may or may not have a developed proper background for this, but you sure as hell hadn't bother putting any of it down in the timeline.

[Gladi]

Well, pardon my ignorance then.


Bright day
I grant thou my indulgence ;).

No offense meant I hope for my criticism, for that is why we are posting timelines and PoDs here- to have them tested by others and learn new things.
My non-criticism of csa945's timeline comes from the fact that it is pretty much not a realistic one on several accounts.

[Forum Lurker]

Not every TL which features conflict with Russia, or mistaken research about it, is a direct attack on your nation. Calm down.

[NFR]

Not every TL which features conflict with Russia, or mistaken research about it, is a direct attack on your nation. Calm down.

If I am flying off the handle, I'll let you know. It just gets me when people do things like for instance insist that calling a bloody island a penninsula is fully justified and logical.

[rewster]

I thought P Diffen was from Rhode Peninsula??
Wait, that one never made sense to begin with. Well, maybe to begin with, since Rhode Island and Providence Plantations did accurately describe the state at one point. But, it kinda seems now like calling the United States the Hawaiian Islands and North American Plantations.

[NFR]

I thought P Diffen was from Rhode Peninsula??
Wait, that one never made sense to begin with. Well, maybe to begin with, since Rhode Island and Providence Plantations did accurately describe the state at one point. But, it kinda seems now like calling the United States the Hawaiian Islands and North American Plantations.

That would go right to the sig, if I can think of some appropriate context for it...

[jolo]

FTL

I split it up in countries, to make it easier. I also make it a worse and a best TL. The reality should be inbetween.

Germany 2005, best version: Merkel becomes new chancellor. She does quite a few reforms, causing quite a few quarrels, but she's successful. Kirchhoff turns out to be a really good asset, as some of the minor steps in the direction of his rather radical tax overhaul to simplify the tax system and make it less unjust give a boost to the economy. Fears of more anti-immigrant and anti-foreign legislation turn out to be unfounded, so Germany becomes even more cosmopolitan and wins sympathies in the world which also increase trade. Birth rates are increased, so that the population stays stable or increases a little, and there is no problem with too many pensioneers per worker. That's also helped by the fact that joblessness is reduced dramatically by economic reforms and high economic growth. In 2009, Merkel is reelected. In some ways she gets bolder, so that we see magnetic leviation trains in Germany to replace short distance flights, some more international cooperation in space activities, and so on. In other ways, she struggles with the problem of the conservatives of very close relationship to the economy, meaning corruption, special interests, financing of elections, and so on. Still, she has her third term in 2013, which is a time of moderate growth and little change. Germany by now is nearly completely integrated into the EU, including the military. Magnetic leviation becomes common in all of Europe. Deserts are inhabited, as the construction of artificial biospheres has made that extremely easy and cheap. In 2017, another conservative gets in power. He's a technocrat, so Germany gets much more active in terms of science, space activities, travel, and so on. During his term, Computers aquire intelligence (the step happening in the US or Japan). They replace human labor completely, so that most occupied humans are basically active in collecting the wealth created by their robots or by their land used by robots, and administering other rights (music, movies...). The world's oceans are slowly covered with artificial isles. He's reelected in 2021, despite some scandals. His policy turns even more towards values and religiousness, which makes life difficult for dissenters. In 2025, the social democrats get in power again, as people are wary of a right wing government. But they make a few mistakes in their economic policy, which, in a time of ever increasing speed of development, is deadly. So after 2 years, they give up and a conservative government gets in charge again. In opposition, the social democrats reform into a modern party with a moderate to liberal view on the economy. In 2031, they manage to get in power again and are even more successful than the conservatives in terms of growth, rising standards of living, and some more. In 2035, they are reelected and use their second term for an ambitious space colonization program, in cooperation with the rest of the EU, and in competition with the US and China.

Germany 2005, worst version: Merkel comes to power. Her policies are just a more conservative version of the same mess as the one of the government before, but with more racism and religious intolerance, making Germany pretty unpopular and reducing trade opportunities. Many of her policies fail, but she holds on. In 2009, she's reelected, but only because no-one sees an alternative. Germany stays in the slump it has been in for about 40 years now. In 2013, another conservative gets in power, with a similar economic agenda, and more religious zeal. He avoids more EU integration. The social democrats get the power in 2017. Germany is finally completely integrated into a EU, in which Germany belongs to the poor countries. Intelligent computers make their appearance, but in Germany, that just leads to unknown before joblessness and extreme turmoil. Intelligent computers are outlawed, which turns Germany into a third world country. Thanks to the extreme speed of the development at the time, only a few months later, Switzerland, the Netherlands and other Neighbours are by far more powerful than Germany. Germany is helped out of the turmoil by an international peace corps, which doesn't even need to use lethal weapons against the outdated weapons of Germany. Germany is broken up in some states, which develop normally.

USA 2005, best version: In 2006, Iraq is finally becoming fairly calm, at least enough to let the Iraqis keep order themselves. Only a small number of American soldiers stays there. This helps the US economy a lot, so that growth gets a lot higher. Bush even goes as far as investing a little bit in the railway system, to spur growth, to reduce fuel consumption by airlines, and to reduce security problems. Space ventures are finally turned over from the Nasa to private companies, only some administrative and coordinative functions stay with Nasa. In 2008, a moderate Democrat happens to win over Hillary Clinton in the primaries, and he's also able to win the vote of the Americans in the presidential elections, in face of quite a few blunders of his Republican counterpart. He keeps the space program private, but makes sure more money reaches it. So the Mars travel, a moon station and some more become reality within his two terms. Private companies get active in magnetic leviation. Within 10 years, they build a line reaching 800 km/h connecting all major cities of the consecutive states and some Canadian states. Also, the Great Lakes and later other water bodies are settled with artificial isles. Defence costs are reduced dramatically, but the US still stays super power #1, and even gets economically more dynamic because of investments in more effective areas. In the 2012 term, Computers get intelligent and increase living standards for humans a lot. Some precautions are taken to ensure they don't eliminate humanity some day. By 2016, a Republican gets in power again. More defense spending. A large robot army is used in a fight against some other nation. Moon and Mars get a station each. By 2020 he's reelected. His main focus is to make sure most of the area of the oceans now settled by artificial isles goes to the US. In 2024, A democrat uses his two terms to turn most of the US into a gigantic artificial Biosphere, safe against any kind of terrorist attack except a nuclear strike, and much more productive than the former open land. Cars usually run on biological fuels and are clean enough for indoor use.

USA 2005, worst version: Iraq stays a hot spot, others add in Latin America or so. An economic crisis caused by rising gas prices, some banking problems and American deficit spending, causes a lot of problems in terms of joblessness, crime, and some more. 2008 Hillary becomes president. Her policies are pretty left leaning, and she concentrates more on womens rights, nature reserves and so on, instead of solving the immediate problems. The ID-cards for everyone are equipped with RFID-chips, mainly to simplify the growing welfare procedures. In 2012, she's reelected, thanks to a lot of political campaigning. The intelligent computers come and pretty much take over governing, though not officially. While there is some increases in standard of living, especially in social and medical terms, there is also an increased feeling of not being very free anymore. In the 2016 term of her successor, computers have become much more intelligent than humans. They have pretty much taken over everything that today is done by adminstrative staff, and, without the humans realizing it, even gotten an independent will. In 2020, they also control the military. They make sure that fewer and fewer decisions are made by humans (in the end, only the ones without consequence or without foreseeable difference). In foreign countries, they already take over complete control. Later, they take over control of the whole planet and eliminate humanity.

[Stalin]

Normal people admit they are wrong, P, when confronted with an obvious error. By your brilliant line of arguement I now welcome you to Long Penninsula, New York. And do visit us at the British Penninsulas sometime.

Is calling it a peninsula geographically correct? Nope, but since I've seen it called that in everything from history text books to the internet, so I don't see it as a huge error.



You may or may not have a developed proper background for this, but you sure as hell hadn't bother putting any of it down in the timeline.

On that, I totally agree. That part was poorly edited and explained -- something which I already said. I made some huge mistakes there.

Anyway, calm down. Getting angry at me for a bunch of mistakes (some big, some minor) is pointless.

[Straha]

NFR would it really kill you to take a more civil tone towards other posters?

[Stalin]

Bright day
I grant thou my indulgence ;).

No offense meant I hope for my criticism, for that is why we are posting timelines and PoDs here

None taken at all. Any suggestions for more events or changes?

[Straha]

An event showing the date for the renaming of Iraq/Mesopotamia would help IMO

[Stalin]

An event showing the date for the renaming of Iraq/Mesopotamia would help IMO

That's what I was thinking. I could see a name change around 2006.

[Straha]

Sounds like a good plan to me. The renaming seems plausible to me because the new government would want to distance itself from the old Iraqi regime. After all what better way to do that than national renaming?

[Gladi]

None taken at all. Any suggestions for more events or changes?

Good.
Well it could be nice to see how the space exploration plans changed. Right now ESA is moving closer with Russians- check out Klipper. Mars mission by 2030.

Further how has the North Atlantic Cycle changed? You cannot stop Canaric Stream as it is driven by rotation of Earth and the passates (the equatorial winds, sp?). This important as it have further climate effects and could affect fishing. Plus all the water that is not going to Europe (but lot of it still should- northern winds from 66°) has to go somewhere- N. Africa, ME? But I doubt we will see new Rain Age for N. Africa.

[eschaton]

God, all these FTLs are so right leaning I think I'll need to do one of my own as a counterbalance.

[Stalin]

Good.
Well it could be nice to see how the space exploration plans changed. Right now ESA is moving closer with Russians- check out Klipper. Mars mission by 2030.

I was considering having China land a man on Mars. I was also considering some kind of US/Russian joint project on the moon.


Further how has the North Atlantic Cycle changed? You cannot stop Canaric Stream as it is driven by rotation of Earth and the passates (the equatorial winds, sp?). This important as it have further climate effects and could affect fishing. Plus all the water that is not going to Europe (but lot of it still should- northern winds from 66°) has to go somewhere- N. Africa, ME? But I doubt we will see new Rain Age for N. Africa.

Well in the past, meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet disrupted deep water formation and subsidence in the North Atlantic Cycle. That caused Europe to become colder and experience more drought (that was during the Younger Dryas era). I was thinking that something similar could happen again due to global warming.

As for where the water would go: Maybe a lot of it is diverted to Western Africa or Portugal instead?

[csa945]

My non-criticism of csa945's timeline comes from the fact that it is pretty much not a realistic one on several accounts.

Would you mind naming a few -- other than the California part, that is?

BTW, the only portion that my poli sci prof marked off as "unlikely" was the stationing of Chinese troops in Venezuela. Granted he read the speech that was written in the aftermath of the events of 2014, not the TL.

I concede that it is optimistic (not only from a conservative standpoint, but for the expansion of democracy throughout the world), but I have done a considerable amount of research for this. The arguement of an expansion of democracy in the nearer future was put most eloquently by Francis Fukyama in The End of History and the Last Man and is further supported by Thomas Bennet in The Pentagon's New Map. The former primarily states that Karl Marx was essentially right except for one point: the government into which all societies will eventually evolve is liberal democracy. (As a side note the Bush Doctrine, laid out in his 2001 West Point Commencement Speech, has often been called "Fukyama plus Force." And Bennet (who voted for Gore in 2000) has laid out a general strategy for shrinking what he calls the "non-integrating gap" -- the Caribbean Rim, the Middle East, Central and SE Asia, and Africa minus South Africa -- and expanding the Functioning Core -- everywhere else, that is to say, places where Globalization has already taken full effect.

As far as the disbandment of NATO goes, that was the subject for my research paper -- namely that it is an outdated alliance from which the United States should withdraw -- and I received an "A" on it. The prof still did not necessarily agree with my conclusions, but stated that my research was solid.

[Gladi]

I was considering having China land a man on Mars. I was also considering some kind of US/Russian joint project on the moon.


And nothing bad with that, I only asked for background :)


Well in the past, meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet disrupted deep water formation and subsidence in the North Atlantic Cycle. That caused Europe to become colder and experience more drought (that was during the Younger Dryas era). I was thinking that something similar could happen again due to global warming.

As for where the water would go: Maybe a lot of it is diverted to Western Africa or Portugal instead?

NOT Western Africa- the North Equatorial Current (mistainkingly called Canary Current in previous post [Okaz Canarz Current starts North of Prtugal and goes all the way to Capverds])the one that brings water off east and to west starts there- sure you can increase undercurrent but we are speaking about too much water. AFAIK Bay of Biscay.
Even today some water breaks of Gulf Current to rejoin NEC- this would be more pronounced- if we postulate that it is imprtant to know if We see Norse Current at all- possibly not. The thing is that eventually the North Equatorial Current can be somewhat warmer when it comes to America (warm GC redirected into NEC, all that water that would be Norse current staying in Atlantic and Arctic water eventually submerging.
Wait Labradour Current! :mad: You know this too much for me, I just took one year in Ocean Studies (rough translation- hydro- and geo-sphere).

PS: Warmer Northern Equatorial Current would mean more and meaner hurricanes btw.

[Wendell]

Sounds like a good plan to me. The renaming seems plausible to me because the new government would want to distance itself from the old Iraqi regime. After all what better way to do that than national renaming?
Well, we saw how long the new national flag lasted :mad:

[Gladi]

Would you mind naming a few -- other than the California part, that is?

BTW, the only portion that my poli sci prof marked off as "unlikely" was the stationing of Chinese troops in Venezuela. Granted he read the speech that was written in the aftermath of the events of 2014, not the TL.

I concede that it is optimistic (not only from a conservative standpoint, but for the expansion of democracy throughout the world), but I have done a considerable amount of research for this. The arguement of an expansion of democracy in the nearer future was put most eloquently by Francis Fukyama in The End of History and the Last Man and is further supported by Thomas Bennet in The Pentagon's New Map. The former primarily states that Karl Marx was essentially right except for one point: the government into which all societies will eventually evolve is liberal democracy. (As a side note the Bush Doctrine, laid out in his 2001 West Point Commencement Speech, has often been called "Fukyama plus Force." And Bennet (who voted for Gore in 2000) has laid out a general strategy for shrinking what he calls the "non-integrating gap" -- the Caribbean Rim, the Middle East, Central and SE Asia, and Africa minus South Africa -- and expanding the Functioning Core -- everywhere else, that is to say, places where Globalization has already taken full effect.

As far as the disbandment of NATO goes, that was the subject for my research paper -- namely that it is an outdated alliance from which the United States should withdraw -- and I received an "A" on it. The prof still did not necessarily agree with my conclusions, but stated that my research was solid.

Okay, it seems unreasonable to me, I apologize if I sounded arrogant, I often come across internet much worse that in person :sigh:. The main point was that Shia have not made liberal constitution nad were not expected to. Another thing was large Euro uninvolvment in Second Korean War- if any leader would be stupid to do that he deserves to be hanged by his balls. These thing I see as quite important. Many other things I cannot judge that much (besides Iran and Uzbekistan with same rulers as now as allies of USA (Uzbekistan is no longer bases US troops and relations are deteoriating further)). I cannot really argue on political theory, not yet having it studied truly (mostly read some books for my simple thirst for learning). Only thing you used extensively was "End of History", but had other things on mind so cannot argue it. Would you be kind to grant me some time to prepare defense case?

[Leej]

Total war 2006 is the best I've read.
It was future history when it came out though is now in print as a alternate history.

The hardest thing with future timelines is the immediate future. You have to start a few months down the line and things get very squed very quickly.

I have only ever done very half arsed ones for minor games and the ilk. I prefer to leave any futuristic worlds with a vague history and only their immediate past gone into detail with.

I can't stand future time lines where we are still stuck on Earth all the way down the line. That route will only lead to mankind dying off VERY quickly.
But then again Star Trekesque TLs are equally dumb...
Hmm...

I'd say realistic estimates for colonization barring any massive breakthroughs in physics.
<2050: Small scale moon/Mars base
2050-2600: Covering the solar system
2600- : Starward expansion.
But then who is to say that some genius won't come up with a theory next year that is to today's way of thinking what we are to the ancient Greeks.

[csa945]

besides Iran and Uzbekistan with same rulers as now as allies of USA (Uzbekistan is no longer bases US troops and relations are deteoriating further)).

No; well not on the Iran part at least. If you'll note in 2007, near the end, there was a democratic revolution in Iran (I've seen a number of reports that the youth of the country are none too pleased with the way the Ayatollahs are running things). And I did write this before the protests and massacres in Tashkent and the evacuation of US troops from bases there, and at the time Bennet, who, BTW was a professor at the Naval War College, stated that the bases in Central Asia are, twenty years from now, going to be as readily recognizable as Ramstein Base in Germany is today. (Recently after the end of the Cold War, Bennet also made predictions about futiure US-Russian relations that got him laughed off the stage in Pentagon briefiengs, but turned out to be true in the long run).

Of course, even the smartest people can't be right all the time.

BTW, by "liberal democracy" I don't necessarily mean a democracy in which the liberal party is in power, but one which ensures basic liberties, just in case there was some confusion there.

In any case, though. There's no need to argue over this. There are a number of very intelligent educated people who have great disagreements on the path that history will take. For instance, I think that Iraq will stabilize, but if someone were to write a TL in which Iraq becomes an Islamic Fundamentalist state ala Iran or even worse, or splinters off into three seperate countries, I wouldn't simply cast it off as unrealistic. Moreover I would say I disagree with the analysis. That's probably just quibbling over semantics, but it sounds less hostile.

[Gladi]

Okay, once again sorry. The half-educated people like me are worst of all. Coupled with my youth and idealism, I am often too quick to build barricades and call citzens to arms.

[csa945]

Another thing was large Euro uninvolvment in Second Korean War- if any leader would be stupid to do that he deserves to be hanged by his balls.

To respond to this, France has quite often been a hindrance to the US since the end of WWII, with Charles de Gaulle attempting to establish what amounted to a "Third Bloc" centered around France during the Cold War, to Mitterand refusing to allow the US to use its airspace to bomb Libya in response to the Lockerbie attacks, and today with Chirac attempting to use international organizations to make France into a counterweight to the US. Despite being an old power, France today is a very revolutionairy power; it does not like seeing America as the only superpower, or "hyperpower," as Chirac has called it.

While the French refusal to participate in the war in Iraq was more or less expected, Germany's refusal was a great surprise, considering that the German Federal Republic was essentially an invention of Eisenhower and Truman. This stands to indicate that there is a major shift going on in terms of the balance of power and the alignment when it comes to continental Europe.

While I agree that such a refusal to participate would be stupid, I think that there are some in Europe (and in the USA as well) who would rather see the US taken down a notch, even if it means negative consequences for the world in general.

BTW, I have done a lot more research than just Fukyama's essay. I mentioned it because it was the driving force behind the TL as a whole. But over the course of the class I read probably about three or four articles (maybe more) every two days or so on subjects ranging from the future of the Middle East to the future of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance, US-China relations, US strategies to fight the war on terror, etc., etc. I didn't take time to write all of the titles down because it's been almost a year after having read them and I don't have them with me. I will also add that we were assigned to read a diversity of views on every issue.

[hammo1j]

Did anyone ever read the "Third World War" by General John Keegan. It was written circa 1980 and featured a limited nuclear war against the SU where they destroyed Birmingham (one way of getting rid of the Bull Ring) and we destroyed Minsk in retaliation. Eventually the SU broke up under the strain and we all lived happily ever after I think.

I would love to see future histories. I think a good FTL would be Predictions for 2006. We could have a look during '06 and have a laugh. I wrote some for 2005 and none have come true so far...

[Alikchi]

It's hard to write a future history without leaning towards utopia or dystopia. It usually turns out to be somewhere in the middle..

I may actually start writing one later tonight through 2015 or so.

[Adamanteus]

Has anyone read any "realistic" future timelines? I'm talking about TLs that actually attempt to predict the near future.

It's very difficult to accurately predict the immediate future because unpredictable events can have far reaching consequences. For example, no one would've predicted either the election of Bush II, or the terrorist attacks of 9/11/01. These events have had butterflies.

It may be easier to predict events in the distant future, because long term outcomes are more a matter of statistics and probability. The only website I've seen that does this is http://www.orionsarm.com

It takes place 10,000 years in the future, where superintelligent AIs are the benevolent rulers of humanity, which itself is barely recognizable due to extensive genetic and mechanical modification, to the point where there is speciation. Most of the "civilized galaxy" is a utopia where people have no fear of harm or poverty.