Great Britain 2030

[Lord Douglas]

So what are your images for the Britain of 2030? What will happen in the next 25 years. You can discuss what the rest of the world is like, but I want this discussion to focus primarily on Britain, what state the country is in, its position in world affairs etc. I know this is an alternate history forum, but this is simply future history. And if you'll allow me to, I'll give you one restriction:

Britain must retain its independance at a similar degree to today if not having more powers reserved to itself.

I don't want the main issue of British politics of 2030 to be State Premier Jones deciding what type of hospital bed to install, of course subject to the European President's approval.

[JLCook]

It will be founded ~ 2015, upon the death of it's last reigning monarch, Queen Elizabeth II and the rejection of her son Charles as King. It is a FEDERAL REPUBLIC, composed of the states of ENGLAND, SCOTLAND, WALES, and No. Ireland, and it will be SOCIALIST, because that is what Europeans are, even Europeans stubbornly maintaining separate independance from the Franco-German Hegemony. There will be a rather elaborate "Federal Constitution" which will spell out in some 9000 words the social responsibilities and obligations of it's Federal citizens. Curiously. Constitutioinal protections for liberties and freedoms are only lightly glossed over in this document.

The Government will consist of an "Executive", who will be called "The President" and a legislature, which will still retain the traditional name of "PARLIAMENT" although both of it's houses will be elective. There will also be a Court system which will be subordinate to both the Executive AND Parliament, unlike for example the United States Supreme Court which has it's own independant status.

Militarily, The British Armed Forces will be smallish, professional, fairly well equipped, but unable to project force very far beyond British shores, mostly due to severe financial restrictions imposed by a budget which allocates the greatest majority of it's funds on social welfare programs.

Economically, the FSRGB will suffer from too high wages and too extensive benifits to be able to make and sell products competitively on the world market. Most of the economic "muscle" which the FSRGB does have will emanate from North Sea oil platforms and some very high tech special engineering systems.

Emigration to both Canada and Australia will be common!

Politically, the FSRGB will face intense pressures from neighboring Franco-German Hegemony and the FSRGB will rely heavily on it's friendship with the United States to secure and maintain it's sovereign independance from the Hegemony.

[Yellmic Wigwawa]

So what are your images for the Britain of 2030? What will happen in the next 25 years. You can discuss what the rest of the world is like, but I want this discussion to focus primarily on Britain, what state the country is in, its position in world affairs etc. I know this is an alternate history forum, but this is simply future history. And if you'll allow me to, I'll give you one restriction:

Britain must retain its independance at a similar degree to today if not having more powers reserved to itself.

I don't want the main issue of British politics of 2030 to be State Premier Jones deciding what type of hospital bed to install, of course subject to the European President's approval.


GB by 2030 is a more devolved state than was thought possible a mere 40 years earlier. Scotland is now largely self-governing, with only defence & foreign affairs decided in Westminster. Wales has achieved powers roughly similar to those that Scotland achieved in 1997, while Northern Ireland has maintained an uneasy peace following the Troubles which lasted for over thirty years in the late twentieth century.

Following the reduction in the number of Scottish, Welsh & N. Irish M. P.s, the Tories are now the largest party in the British Parliament, but a series of weak governments have failed to find a clear majority, and a Liberal Democrat government, the first for over a hundred years, looks a possibilty after the next election, though New Labour may well overcome its internal divisions and regain its long lost dominance.

The biggest foreign policy issue is whether the UK will leave the Greater European Union to join the North Atlantic Free Trade Area, along with the US, Canada, Mexico, Spain and Portugal.

[Justin Pickard]

Central Lib-Lab coalition government under a female PM, with a hardline Left Socialist-Green opposition, and marginal Far-right nationalist minority. More devolution. Upper house elected by PR on a national basis, lower house elected by FPTP on a constituency basis. King William V will reign as a constitutional monarch (the throne having by-passed Charles entirely). More ethnic minorities. More tax. More old people.

[fred_smith]

By 2030, Britain has constitutionally changed a great deal. The Prime Ministers and his cabinet has continued to increase in size and significance, the twelve regional assemblies and European parliament have taken an ever increasing role in the decision making process, more of the budget for these regions comes from the EU, leaving the parliament as an increasingly marginalised body, though it stuill holds significant respect and authority.

The Conservatives split in the 2010's when their controversial American style "Flag and God" approach failed to sway the voters. Though the moderate wing of the party has since won back power. Nobody cared. The difference between Conservative and Labour parties are seen as minimal and the Liberal Party seemed to become more divided as it gained power. By now, voters are increasingly likely to consider allegance to European party alliances anyway.

Culturally, the nation is more liberal, though increasingly interested in moral issues and the conflict between the aging conservatives and a new, more liberal activists. Though these definitions are blurred, and new terms and ideologies are being looked for since the percieved failure of both ideologies. The nation is increasingly multi-religious and multicultural, though new fusions of cultures and new ideas are of greater importance now.

Technology is of course far more advanced. Public transport is becoming more common as petrol prices sour, and the seaside is rapidly becoming popular again. The NHS has been largely privatised, though it could be argued that the system is more efficient than ever.

[JEDCJT]

in the year 2030, Great Britain is divided into four (three*) self-governing republics: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland*. (* That is, if Northern Ireland becomes part of Ireland through peace treaties or by force in the late 2000s, the 2010s or even 2020s, althrough the latter may bring Britain's wrath into the matter). England is the largest and ecomonicially developed of the four countries (for this matter) with London as its capital.

For examples, in 2009/2010, the sections of Wales and Scotland object against Queen Elizabeth II and the government and tries to/successfully secedes from the United Kingdom and form independent countries, named the Union of Independent Kingdoms (don't ask, I just made that up.) Soon, the UIK (Union of Independent Kingdoms) begins to compete with each other to see who's more technologically, politicially and economicially advanced. England wins the competition, but this only makes the other countries to compete even harder.

In the year 2012/2013 (you can make it 2014 if you want) Ireland, with encouraging from foreign countries (excluding the United States, who is neutral in this matter), sends its troops to occupy Northern Ireland and reunify it with Ireland. This starts a small clash between Catholic and Protestant soldiers at first. But the clash soon grows as every Protestant from every section of Northern Ireland, especially the capital, Belfast, joins the Protestant soldiers and this forces Ireland to send in an even more numbers of troops into the fighting. This starts the Second Irish Civil War, which forces England to send in its troops to help maintain control of Northern Ireland and to try to promote peace.

But the British involvement in the increasing conflict only adds more fuel to the raging fire as British troops face resistance against the Cathotic troops (sorry, don't know their official name) fighting in the country. So in late 2014, British troops launch an invasion of Ireland from the north (Northern Ireland), with Protestant troops assisting them. As a result, uprisings spring up all over Irish cities against the British. In February/March 2015, British troops finally breaks through and enters Dublin. Soon, they are involved into a guerrilla war with the Catholic troops. Desperate in the situation, England asks Wales and Scotland for help. Both countries refuses.

With Wales, Scotland and the United States refusing to help (it is neutral in this affair), England and Northern Ireland is forced to work together and alone to ensure peace. However, the battle continues for the rest of the year. By the middle of 2016, England's resources is nearly depleted as British troops is unable to dislodge the guerrillas in Dublin and the surrounding cities...

Whew, I ran out of ideas writing this (typing, actually). But this should give you an idea of what Great Britain would look like in 2030. (Note: everything is made up, so some aspects may be messed up, or impossible or simply will never happen, or simply silly, or whatever...)

[Imajin]

I see a number of departments of the Greater French Empire, collectively as the régions of Angleterre-Central, York, Scotia, Jersey-et-Guernsey, Pays-de-Galles, Londres, Cornoauilles, and Nord-Eire... The Greater French Empire being formed following the overthrow of the Fifth French Republic province of the European Union (formally united in 2019) following the attempted Islamist overthrow of said province, and the subsequent revolts that left the Atlantic Provinces of the European Union under the rule of Napoleon V...

Alright, so that's unlikely beyond the veil of plausibility...

[Wendell]

I see a number of departments of the Greater French Empire, collectively as the régions of Angleterre-Central, York, Scotia, Jersey-et-Guernsey, Pays-de-Galles, Londres, Cornoauilles, and Nord-Eire... The Greater French Empire being formed following the overthrow of the Fifth French Republic province of the European Union (formally united in 2019) following the attempted Islamist overthrow of said province, and the subsequent revolts that left the Atlantic Provinces of the European Union under the rule of Napoleon V...

Alright, so that's unlikely beyond the veil of plausibility...
Let me guess, the whole mess is then annexed by Andorra :p

[MarkWhittington]

England, Scotland, and Wales will be states of the United States. Northern Ireland will have been reunited with the Republic of Ireland.

[Wendell]

England, Scotland, and Wales will be states of the United States. Northern Ireland will have been reunited with the Republic of Ireland.
England proper could be divided into additional states as well?

[Flocculencio]

England proper could be divided into additional states as well?

Actually you'd have to- otherwise the State of England would be by far the most powerful state in the Union what with all those electoral votes.

You'd probably be best with a Wessex, Mercia, Northumbria split.

Highly unlikely that the UK will join the US though unless they really take a swing to the right- remember, the rule of thumb is that mainstream Democrat politics in the US are moderate Tory politics by UK standards.

[Wendell]

Actually you'd have to- otherwise the State of England would be by far the most powerful state in the Union what with all those electoral votes.

You'd probably be best with a Wessex, Mercia, Northumbria split.

Highly unlikely that the UK will join the US though unless they really take a swing to the right- remember, the rule of thumb is that mainstream Democrat politics in the US are moderate Tory politics by UK standards.
In theory yes, but things can change too.

[Flocculencio]

In theory yes, but things can change too.

Of course they can but I think a right-wing swing by the UK or a left-wing swing by the US to the extent where a majority of both country's population would support union would be extremely unlikely

For one thing I think you're underestimating quite how bloody-minded the Brits can be. Most of them would resist union out of sheer spite and stubbornnes :D.

[Wendell]

Of course they can but I think a right-wing swing by the UK or a left-wing swing by the US to the extent where a majority of both country's population would support union would be extremely unlikely

For one thing I think you're underestimating quite how bloody-minded the Brits can be. Most of them would resist union out of sheer spite and stubbornnes :D.
TRue. They are Britons after all.

[Kit]

I would imagine that the socio-political scene would not look too different from what we have today.

Historically, British politics has worked 'stages' or 'epochs' of consensus. The most recent was of course the socialist consesnus from 1945-1979. All three main parties, conservative, labour and liberals, signed up to the political consensus that had been established after the second world war. While of course they disagreed on many issues, those disagreements took place within a larger agreement on how the country should be run.

That consensus included things like public ownership of the major utilities, Keynesian economics, a very large welfare state etc. Until 79, both conservatives and labour were happy with this basic system. After 79 of course, that consensus ended, The conservatives shifted the socio-political spectrum to the right, and New Labour emerged. That process took until the mid-90s. Since then, we've had a new consensus in which all major parties agree to the basic 'rules of the game'.

I would expect that consensus to last until 2030, although we might be seeing the first signs of discontent and the emergence of another paradigme shift.

As to whether the Conservatives will survive and the Liberals replace them...I'm not sure. The main problem with that is that the UK needs a right-wing party and a left-wing one (I think, although the meanings of left and right are becoming increasingly diffuse). If Labour and the Lib-Dems are the major parties, they will have to pick sides. I don't think Conservative decline is inevitable anyway. Obviously, they need a really big kick up the ass at the moment, but then I think they're going through a similar process to what Labour went through in the 80s and 90s. It took them 18 years, it might take Conservatives the same.

I would imagine that all the participating member states of the EU would work towards a strategy that includes more subsidiarity as a guiding principle. That basically means that decisions are made the most local level that they can be made (in terms of efficiency). The implications of that would mean that more power would be pooled to the EU in some areas, and nation states and local areas would assume more responsibility in others.

[Lord Douglas]

Of course they can but I think a right-wing swing by the UK or a left-wing swing by the US to the extent where a majority of both country's population would support union would be extremely unlikely

For one thing I think you're underestimating quite how bloody-minded the Brits can be. Most of them would resist union out of sheer spite and stubbornnes :D.
But if the UK took a swing to the right wouldn't that make it less likely that we would join the USA? The right is fairly nationalistic and patriotic, and your average Brit is still proud of his/her country. Look at the opposition to the Euro and the Constitution.

[Lord Douglas]

I would imagine that the socio-political scene would not look too different from what we have today.

Historically, British politics has worked 'stages' or 'epochs' of consensus. The most recent was of course the socialist consesnus from 1945-1979. All three main parties, conservative, labour and liberals, signed up to the political consensus that had been established after the second world war. While of course they disagreed on many issues, those disagreements took place within a larger agreement on how the country should be run.

That consensus included things like public ownership of the major utilities, Keynesian economics, a very large welfare state etc. Until 79, both conservatives and labour were happy with this basic system. After 79 of course, that consensus ended, The conservatives shifted the socio-political spectrum to the right, and New Labour emerged. That process took until the mid-90s. Since then, we've had a new consensus in which all major parties agree to the basic 'rules of the game'.

I would expect that consensus to last until 2030, although we might be seeing the first signs of discontent and the emergence of another paradigme shift.

As to whether the Conservatives will survive and the Liberals replace them...I'm not sure. The main problem with that is that the UK needs a right-wing party and a left-wing one (I think, although the meanings of left and right are becoming increasingly diffuse). If Labour and the Lib-Dems are the major parties, they will have to pick sides. I don't think Conservative decline is inevitable anyway. Obviously, they need a really big kick up the ass at the moment, but then I think they're going through a similar process to what Labour went through in the 80s and 90s. It took them 18 years, it might take Conservatives the same.

I would imagine that all the participating member states of the EU would work towards a strategy that includes more subsidiarity as a guiding principle. That basically means that decisions are made the most local level that they can be made (in terms of efficiency). The implications of that would mean that more power would be pooled to the EU in some areas, and nation states and local areas would assume more responsibility in others.
Actually I don't consider it very possible that the Conservatives will decline to the extent that the Liberals did in the 20th century. As you said, we need a right wing party and a left wing party, and the right wing party should at least be a bit socially conservative. Now, as long as the Lib Dems remain on the Centre/centre left of British politics (which is for the foreseeable future in my view, their voter base isn't very right wing) they will replace the Labour Party. The Old Labour supporters will move towards the Lib Dems or some other outfit, and afterall what would be described as new Labour supporters are really just former Tories who switched to Labour in 1997, and who will probably move back to the Tories when Labour grows tired, moves back to the left and when the economy goes downhill.

[Ian the Admin]

Moved to chat. Guys, the alternate history discussion section is for *history* (not including the future).

[Straha]

Then make a future history forum and put the stuff there. Where else are we supposed to put it?

[jolo]

2030

Great Britain is one of many states of the European Federation.

The European Court has long ago decided to make Ireland responsible for peace in Northern Ireland, so Ireland is united under the condition of peace and religious tolerance, otherwise the conflicting areas are put under direct European control. The World Court has approved this decision. All of Ireland is completely independent of Great Britain, within the EF.

A more continental voting system has stopped the regionalisation of Great Britain - Labour, the Liberals, the Conservatives and a few Greens are in the Parliament, shifting coalitions make up most Governments. Britain is very centralized, and not even Scots complain too much if someone from the continent calls his country "England".

As the death of Queen Elisabeth II has coincided with a nervous breakdown of Prince Charles and a major sex scandal involving his children, Australia and Canada had already cut their last ties with GB after declaring themselves republics, and the government and the press at that time wasn't very pro-monarchy anyways, the monarchy was abolished years ago, Great Britain turned into a republic.

The Commonwealth has become part of the "International Free Trade Zone", which includes most of the world. Any special union of English speaking languages doesn't exist anymore, as English is at least second language in nearly all countries.

The Eurotunnel has gotten company - more tunnels parallel to the old tunnels for car travel, a new tunnel connecting GB with the Netherlands.

Dams north and south of the Irish Sea have been used to dry the body inbetween, the new land being shared 50:50 between Britain and Ireland. Large channels at the former coast lines help shipping and conserving some of the character of that area. Several streets connect Irish and British cities directly. The land is mainly used for farming crops of which oil can be made, as most fossile oil has been used up. A large lake in the middle is fed by hydro electric power stations built into the two dams, who are also desalination plants, to simplify irrigation of the crops.

Even small workers usually have a large mansion, as it doesn't cost very much to build, except in inner cities. Robots and specialized machines do most of the manual work, people are occupied with art, leisure, education, sport, planning, research, administering their rights (like homes to let), and so on.

Some artificial isles in possession of British companies are responsible for space travel, communication, avantgarde ways of living, and so on. There even is a British underwater city somewhere in the Atlantic or Pacific.

The health system and nearly everything else has become privat. Even parts of the police work on an insurance base, giving protection according to need.

A welfare system doesn't exist anymore, but the states helps struggling people with a credit for medicine, job training, or some disciplin training - depending upon the case. Low wages in bad economic times keep joblessness to about zero. No-one starves, no-one needs to beg. For real emergencies, free food and shelter is available in every city - though most of the people using this possibility are just to cheap to pay for the services. But they can, if they just identify themselves.

The cartel watchers have very much power - not only do they keep monopolies from happening, they also make sure people get a decent share of the fruits of their efforts, conflicting interests are avoided, children of rich people get some share of their parents fortune, and so on.

People rarely die - aging has mostly been cured, like most other illnesses. Only accidents, killings, suicides, drugs, a few remaining illnesses, and the likes sometimes cause death.

[Flocculencio]

But if the UK took a swing to the right wouldn't that make it less likely that we would join the USA? The right is fairly nationalistic and patriotic, and your average Brit is still proud of his/her country. Look at the opposition to the Euro and the Constitution.

Actually that's true. You'd have the Sun plastering "No to Yankee Union!" all over it's headlines and the like.

So yeah- the British left isn't likely to agree to a Union with "evil, capitalist" America and the right isn't going to agree to a union with "those bloody Yanks". Actually I can't really think of any English political factions likely to agree.

[Othniel]

Actually you'd have to- otherwise the State of England would be by far the most powerful state in the Union what with all those electoral votes.

You'd probably be best with a Wessex, Mercia, Northumbria split.

Highly unlikely that the UK will join the US though unless they really take a swing to the right- remember, the rule of thumb is that mainstream Democrat politics in the US are moderate Tory politics by UK standards.
You mean it beats out California, New York and Texas?

[Flocculencio]

You mean it beats out California, New York and Texas?

You get electoral college votes from population right?

Population of CA: 35.9m

NY: 19.2m

TX: 22.4m

England: 50.1m

The figures for the US are from 2004 and that for England is from 2005.

The population of the UK as a whole 60m- you can see what the population imbalance is like between England, Scotland and Wales

[Othniel]

You get electoral college votes from population right?

Population of CA: 35.9m

NY: 19.2m

TX: 22.4m

England: 50.1m

The figures for the US are from 2004 and that for England is from 2005.

The population of the UK as a whole 60m- you can see what the population imbalance is like between England, Scotland and Wales
Number of people in congress and we'd just keep England a territory until conress approved it.

[Flocculencio]

Number of people in congress and we'd just keep England a territory until conress approved it.

Yeah but would England agree to joining the Union if they were just going to be kept as a territory?

I think not.

[Gedca]

Actually, someothing often ignored here is that America has a rather odd political system. The English are actually best off splitting up as much as possible. Since state they are divided into give them two more senators and two more electorial votes.

I love our system.