What If President Lodge ?

[grandbudda]

What if Nixon beat Kennedy in 1960 therefore making Henry Cabot Lodge the Vice President when Nixon is assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald. Now Lodge becomes Vice President in November 1963. Who become his allies? Who runs against him in 1964? how does he deal with civil rights? Vietnam?

In my opinion Lodge may well have had the best track record on civil rights even better than LBJ. Also we would still have been drawn into Vietnam. Would he face Johnson or Humphrey or someone else in '64. How about a challenege in '64 from within the Republican party? Who might his VP become.

This might be fun to kick around some ideas before starting the Lodge Presidency timeline.

[037771]

This might be fun to kick around some ideas before starting the Lodge Presidency timeline.

If you're going to start one, then its best advised you don't use that whole mini-scenario you've sketched out, id est the one about Nixon winning in '60 and getting assassinated by the same man in the same month and (presumably) in the same city as Jack Kennedy was in our timeline. Even a POD of a '60 win posits radical changes in both Nixon and Oswald's lives that push them irrevocably away from OTL events, at least according to conventional use of the Butterfly Theory.

[Craigo]

If you're going to start one, then its best advised you don't use that whole mini-scenario you've sketched out, id est the one about Nixon winning in '60 and getting assassinated by the same man in the same month and (presumably) in the same city as Jack Kennedy was in our timeline. Even a POD of a '60 win posits radical changes in both Nixon and Oswald's lives that push them irrevocably away from OTL events, at least according to conventional use of the Butterfly Theory.

It doesn't even need to get to President Lodge to be interesting. President Nixon c. 1961 is an under-explored scenario.

[037771]

It doesn't even need to get to President Lodge to be interesting. President Nixon c. 1961 is an under-explored scenario.

See my sig. Have attempted to explore, albeit with a Rockefeller pick rather than a Lodge one.

[thatsmartguy]

Glad I'm not the only person kicking around the idea of a timeline with Lodge as President. He was very pro-Civil Rights; he even pledged (without Nixon's permission) to include a black person in the cabinet if the GOP ticket won in 1960. Also, when he was ambassador to South Vietnam starting in 1963, he saw that Diem was an incompetent fool, so I'm confident any administration with a powerful Lodge (whether a Nixon Administration or a Lodge Administration) would deal with Diem and with South Vietnam very differently. Possible butterflies from that are pretty far-reaching.

As stated, Nixon would almost certainly avoid Kennedy's exact fate (butterflies and the like), although some other assassination certainly isn't impossible.

[John Fredrick Parker]

As to the question of who'd be the Democratic nominee in 64, I'm seeing either Symington, Humphrey, or Brown as the likely choice -- if Lodge runs as a social liberal, they may well go with Symington...

[Wolfpaw]

Symington didn't have any real base in the party, IIRC: he was more just a perennial favorite son from Missouri.

[RogueBeaver]

Symington didn't have any real base in the party, IIRC: he was more just a perennial favorite son from Missouri.

He had a base among Jackson Democrats, one that JFK split with him in '60 and fully inherited as POTUS. But his real base, to paraphrase John McCain, were the party elders such as Truman, Farley, McCormack, etc.

[Wolfpaw]

But isn't '64 a little late for Symington to get the nod? And too early for Scoop Jackson, I suspect. Would JFK give it another shot?

What would LBJ be up to?

[RogueBeaver]

But isn't '64 a little late for Symington to get the nod? And too early for Scoop Jackson, I suspect. Would JFK give it another shot?

What would LBJ be up to?


LBJ was dealing with an increasingly liberal and rebellious caucus that came with the Class of '58, so his job as Majority Leader became even tougher. He might go for it again, but the anti-Southern stigma was too strong.

JFK: No, as I've said elsewhere the plan was for Bobby to launch his own elective career if JFK lost.

[grandbudda]

I think we will go with Humphrey as the democrats choice in '64 with Scoop Jackson as VP. Meanwhile Lodge is nominated by Republicans and he taps Goldwater to unite the party. Any thoughts about this election result as President Lodge leans toward facing the commies and his aggressive civil rights pledge.

[RogueBeaver]

I think we will go with Humphrey as the democrats choice in '64 with Scoop Jackson as VP. Meanwhile Lodge is nominated by Republicans and he taps Goldwater to unite the party. Any thoughts about this election result as President Lodge leans toward facing the commies and his aggressive civil rights pledge.

Jackson is up for reelection in '64. The economy alone will help Lodge considerably despite his lethargy, laziness and disinterest in domestic policy (in the latter a precursor of GHWB). If the Dems lose, Jackson might lose his Senate seat. More likely Terry Sanford as VP.

Aggressive civil rights pledge: all he said was that he'd appoint a black to Cabinet, even though there weren't any prominent black Republicans to appoint. It was a gaffe.

[grandbudda]

Lodge was one of the last liberal Republicans and his civil rights pledge would have been for real. My concern is how would a 1964 election go with Lodge-Goldwater versus Humphrey-Jackson?

[RogueBeaver]

Lodge was one of the last liberal Republicans and his civil rights pledge would have been for real. My concern is how would a 1964 election go with Lodge-Goldwater versus Humphrey-Jackson?

I'm well aware of that, but Lodge's only pledge on civil rights- indeed the only headline he made during the campaign- was to appoint a black to Cabinet. He'd follow through on a CRA and VRA, but I don't know how strong his personal commitment was, unlike Nixon's strong one. You have OTL '64 but with the roles reversed: a massive sympathy wave for a popular assassinated president, a purring economy which wouldn't be seen again until the mid-'80s, and an ideologically unacceptable opposition nominee. In the early '60s HHH was still seen as a liberal "bomb-thrower" and could be quite easily caricatured by the GOP. Lodge wins a landslide.

[John Fredrick Parker]

I expect RB and EM to have something to say about this, but -- :o

I can actually see JFK, despite the plan being for Bobby to launch his own elective career if JFK lost, making something of a comeback in 68, winning the nomination again, then the presidency.

How'd that be for uncanny? For that matter, I don't think impeachment proceedings and resignation would be out of the question...

[RogueBeaver]

I expect RB and EM to have something to say about this, but -- :o

I can actually see JFK, despite the plan being for Bobby to launch his own elective career if JFK lost, making something of a comeback in 68, winning the nomination again, then the presidency.

How'd that be for uncanny? For that matter, I don't think impeachment proceedings and resignation would be out of the question...

Impeachment and resignation? For what? JFK himself gave his blessing to that plan, and without the access to Burkley and Kraus that he had as POTUS he'll be in a wheelchair by '68.

[Duke 4]

Lodge was pretty lazy. He did not like to work at campaigning. He may have made a good President. But he was poor on the stump. You got to mingle and work at it to win an election. JFK, LBJ, HHH all would have out worked him in 64 and won.

[John Fredrick Parker]

... and without the access to Burkley and Kraus that he had as POTUS he'll be in a wheelchair by '68.

Well, that nixes that idea...

[grandbudda]

Lodge was pretty lazy. He did not like to work at campaigning. He may have made a good President. But he was poor on the stump. You got to mingle and work at it to win an election. JFK, LBJ, HHH all would have out worked him in 64 and won.

Remember now that Nixon was killed Lodge is the incumbent as such his being president with a strong economy speaks well for him being elected with Goldwater as his VP. How would the next four years have gone relative to Vietnam, civil rights and any possible great society?

[RogueBeaver]

Remember now that Nixon was killed Lodge is the incumbent as such his being president with a strong economy speaks well for him being elected with Goldwater as his VP. How would the next four years have gone relative to Vietnam, civil rights and any possible great society?

'Nam: the war remains Vietnamized. CR: CRA and VRA both passed. GS: Nixon is a '60s-style centrist, but he's not a New Dealer.

[grandbudda]

Does president Lodge help the Republicans from moving to the right or is Goldwater the heir for '68 and a possible race with JFK Also what about the peace movement

[RogueBeaver]

The conservative movement and the Republican CoG moving southward dates to the mid-1950s, but Reagan would only make his political debut in '64 if Goldwater is the nominee. Lodge was not interested in domestic issues and apart from Ike in '52, almost never interested in intraparty dynamics- he had no control over that process. Goldwater is the heir for '68, but after 16 years of GOP rule the Democrats will retake the White House. RFK will be on one of 2 career paths: running against Javits in '62 or for NY AG in '62, governor against Rocky in '66. He's out this cycle, so most likely Humphrey or Muskie gets the Democratic nomination and paired with Carl Sanders as VP.

No peace movement because there's no Americanization of 'Nam.

[grandbudda]

I agree that Vietnam is still a flop with Lodge as president in '64. With the Republican right wing led by his VP Goldwater wins the nomination and the Republican party stays on a future course to the right that is unstoppable because of Lodge's failures. I think that Goldwater would make the same mistakes that he made in the OTL and become known as a warmonger. Maybe he gets upset by Rockefeller and thereby causing a split in the party and a third party candidacy for an angry Goldwater.
With Goldwater running as a third party under the American party he taps George Wallace as his VP choice. With this lining up to split the right wing from the Republicans and possibly the south from the Democrats we could have a wild 1968 campaign.
On the Democrats side I think it would be interesting to have JFK make a comeback as a sort of moderate alternative to the peace niks for the Democratic left wing.
We end up with a Rockefeller, Kennedy and Goldwater three way race. Now we might have something for intereswting here!!
FEEDBACK!!

[Wendell]

As to the question of who'd be the Democratic nominee in 64, I'm seeing either Symington, Humphrey, or Brown as the likely choice -- if Lodge runs as a social liberal, they may well go with Symington...

Smathers would be more of a contrast.


Aggressive civil rights pledge: all he said was that he'd appoint a black to Cabinet, even though there weren't any prominent black Republicans to appoint. It was a gaffe.

Wasn't T.R.M. Howard (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRM_Howard) a Republican?

[grandbudda]

I'm sorry I can never buy into George Smathers as a serious candidate. I just don't see him having national appeal.

[grandbudda]

So President Lodge wins in '64 against a ticket of LBJ and Humphrey. His VP is Goldwater which serves to unify the GOP for now. Lodge makes sloppy attempts in civil rights and moves toward Medicare without his own party support. He also manages to screw up Vietnam as LBJ would have in otl.
So he declines to run in 1968
The democrats go with JFK the republican give it to Rockefeller and Goldwater picks Wallace and runs a third party challenge.
What happens in this election ?

[Wendell]

So President Lodge wins in '64 against a ticket of LBJ and Humphrey. His VP is Goldwater which serves to unify the GOP for now. Lodge makes sloppy attempts in civil rights and moves toward Medicare without his own party support. He also manages to screw up Vietnam as LBJ would have in otl.
So he declines to run in 1968
The democrats go with JFK the republican give it to Rockefeller and Goldwater picks Wallace and runs a third party challenge.
What happens in this election ?

Three letters...ASB.