The Second World War delayed - A Hitler who could wait TL

[Jukra]

Note: This is a reformulation of a TL originally written for s.h.w-i several years ago

During his years of misery, when formulating his horrible political thoughts an Austrian wanderer in Münich, later on a prisoner of Landsberg, believed firmly in role of Great Men in history. The greatest German of recent times was Bismarck, a man who was widely seen as the diplomatic mastermind of 19th Century propelling unification of Germany and her rise to Great Power status. When studying the life of this great man the former Austrian tramp thought about the longevity of his life, the amount of work the Great Man could achieve when over 50 years old. This was to be his great goal...

1. The Early years of National Socialist adminstration 1933 - 1942

1933

Hitler declares his Battle for Work: "After fifteen years you will not recognize Germany". Massive investment in public works, industry, education and housing. With heavy state support, Lufthansa announces intention to begin transatlantic passenger service within five years, a new plane "Condor" will be developed for this route. Additionally, Lufthansa announces ambitious specifications for a new European routes airliner; 40 passengers, 300km/h cruise speed, 2000km range. Both aircraft are intended not only for Lufthansa use, but also to capture airliner markets and additionally to stimulate airplane development.

1935

Germany starts rearmament. Anglo-German naval agreement; Size of Kriegsmarine restricted to 35% of the Royal Navy. Royal Navy sighs in relief, as the funds are tight and British shipbuilding industry has taken heavy losses during 1920's and the Great Depression. Luftwaffe is formed. In an Anglo-German Air War agreement it's size is limited to 40% of RAF strength. Mutual inspection is allowed.

Conscription introduced in Germany. As an unilateral confidence building measure the peacetime size of German Army is limited to similar size as British Army. Mutual inspection is allowed between Britain and Germany.

These moves are, as well as made to guard the industrial expansion, also made in order to make a split between France and Britain. At this time the grand strategy of Hitler is to make an Anglo-German alliance against France and Soviet Union. French reaction to the abandonment of Versailles limits is a meager build-up.

1936

Spanish Civil War begins. Italy and Germany give assistance for the Spanish Nationalists, Soviet Union aids Republicans. While the conflict creates tensions, these are mostly limited to intelligentsia and radical workers. As Europe begins to heal from the depression, German products, including new radios and Volkswagen cars, begin to find new mass markets.

Lufthansa transatlantic service using FW Condors begins, numerous airlines order the design. Junkers "Friedenplane" 40 passenger airline start to come out of the production lines and proves to be a tough competitor for DC-3, eventually winning more orders and establishing Germany as the most significant producer of commercial airplanes in the world.

In railway arena German introduction of diesel locomotives is stimulating both orders and competition in various countries. Switch to diesel locomotives is more energy-efficient and also stimulates development of heavy diesel engines for ships and submarines.

1937

Japan invades China. German diplomats urge caution and continue supplying Nationalists with military equipment and training. Less worried about Europe, Britain and France also support the nationalists. Stalin, who does not want to lose his influence in the Far East and wants to keep his border safe from Japan, also supports the Nationalists. Germany continues to drive Jews into exile. Jewish population strongly increases in Israel as
result.

1938

In response to increasing German competition, France and Britain start a number of government-funded programs in fields of aviation and automotive production. Citroën introduces it's CV2, which starts to compete with Volkswagen. In Britain, Brabazon committee favours development of two transformational commercial aircraft types.

Stalin, increasingly isolated, decides to start incite revolts in French and British colonies, as a measure to weaken the west. The gap between Soviet and Western living standards is responded with more oppression. The policy of Popular Front is denied, and communist controlled trade unions are instructed to combat fascism-imperialism shrouded in the veil of social democracy.

The UK finds it increasingly difficult to keep India. There is serious discussion about giving India a dominion status.

1939

First jet flies in Germany. RLM specifications for a new generation of combat aircrafts are made. Lufthansa starts studies of a jet powered airliner. Heavy German economic investment activity in South America, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia.

1940

Advent of German "Einheitsschiff" modular constructed merchant ship in new Blohm&Voss shipyard. This ship with diesel engines is intended to power German merchant fleet and also to be sold on to foreign markets. Norway, which has a lot of Nazi investment for it's aluminium production, is particularly interested and state supported German yards efficiently compete with private Swedish yards.

1940

In the US presidential elections, Dewey wins narrowly against Roosevelt. Young president is seen as one finally capable of truly tackling depression and the increasing economic affluence.

1941

Start of atomic energy (and bomb) projects in France, UK, Soviet Union, Japan and Germany. US Navy starts the secret "Manhattan" project, aiming to give atomic propulsion for submarines and surface ships. Theoretical studies on atomic bomb started, research on special atomic bomb equipped submarine starts. (a la original November-class)

German Army orders the V2 -rocket to be developed as tactical weapon capable of dismantling strongest enemy bunkers. Sufficient accuracy is expected via new radiotechnical guidance systems. Operational readiness is expected by late 1940's.

Luftwaffe orders development of a series of new stand-off weapons, Fritz-X and Hs-293. A command guidance is sought after first, to be improved by rapidly improving television and in the future, perhaps by radar. Follow-on model to V-1 under development is ordered to have a 1000km range, 1000km/h speed and 1000kg warhead. Studies for a possible radar guidance system starts.

1942

Wide-scale public unrest in India, resulting in augmentation of British troops. Communist-nationalist insurgencies in French Indochina and Indonesia start. In Western Europe there are strikes to support "Quit Imperialism" movement, as ordered by the Soviet Union.

At the same time, Japan starts studies of various national suicide options. War in China is going even more badly than OTL and none of the extra-Asian powers is distracted by European situation. Oil can be bought in limited amounts from Mexico, but it has to be paid for. However, Japanese leadership trust that various insurgencies and the domestic resistance to colonial wars mean that European colonial powers are not really committed to their Asian Empires. Americans are wimps, and can be scared away by decimating their fleet. To put it simply, one push by Iron Will and the house of cards will crumble.

On June 22 1942 the Japanese National Suicide begins, as Japanese Fleet makes a surprise attack on US Navy and simultaneously conducts a series of amphibious landings in French Indochina. Dewey declares the June 22 to be the Day of Infamy while nationalistic and racistic fervor sweeps the United States.

Hitler is stunned by the Japanese move, but sees the possibilities. He has considered the Japan as an possible ally, but sees there's no real chance for helping Japan. Now there's a chance to align with the Britain, as well as to support China as an possible future ally. In a Sportspalast speech he declares war on Japan, members of an inferior race. He reminds the public of the Boxer Rebellion, when forces of civilization put down the anarchy. Just a few days afterwards Mussolini declares war on Japan too, mostly in order to be where the action is.

The British, French and the US are cautious of German and Italian offers but have really no chance but accepting them. Germany starts to build an expeditionary force for China. A small naval task force is sent to the Far East mostly in order to gain experience and and to gather information on premium Western navies.

The Soviet Union decides to do a volte-face and starts to supply Japan by selling raw materials on market terms; more time and effort wasted against Japan is good for Soviet Union. Communist trade unions are ordered to protest against the imperialistic war.

In India, the "Quit India" movement starts as members of the National Congress decide not to support the war. A compromise is reached in which India is promised Dominion status after the end of the war, as only practical mean to allow Britain to commit herself significantly to the Pacific War.

Japanese naval forces proved to be tougher than expected, thus by the end of 1942 Japan controls roughly the same perimeter sans Burma as it did in OTL. Effectiveness of carriers and aircraft against naval ships proves to be an even ruder surprise for the Western Alliance powers than OTL. Japanese technology shock is also larger than OTL.

However, by the end of 1942 the Japanese, though not yet defeated in any major battle, have a horde of enemies assembled against them. German expeditionary force is reaching China, and to replace the ship losses of USN the French and British navies along with Italian and German contingents are establishing themselves in Australia and Ceylon.

[traveller76]

I can see German consumer and industrial goods being used by France and Britain to make up shortages and increase industrial production. Plus lots of information would be sent to the OKW from the Far East concerning tactics and training. Plus I could see many anti-colonial and new countries purchasing German goods since they are not the hated colonialists.

[Kelenas]

The Nazi's rearmament pace would need to be considerably slower than OTL, otherwise they'd bankrupt themselves long before '42.

With that said, this looks quite interesting; with the war in East Asia, both the French and British get a chance to test out their military under more modern battlefield conditions, which should give them a chance to iron out some of the kinks their forces had when WW2 kicked off OTL.

- Kelenas

[Jukra]

The Nazi's rearmament pace would need to be considerably slower than OTL, otherwise they'd bankrupt themselves long before '42.

Sure, and it is. German forces are limited in size by two treaties with UK, the size of the Heer is limited unilaterally in order to have a steady pace of expansion.

With that said, this looks quite interesting; with the war in East Asia, both the French and British get a chance to test out their military under more modern battlefield conditions, which should give them a chance to iron out some of the kinks their forces had when WW2 kicked off OTL.

Yes, particularly in naval and air arenas but there are some significant limitations for both French and British armies. This is not the Second World War, it's a colonial war, although a very large. There will be no conscription except in Australia and New Zealand but volunteer and colonial formations which will be formed. Forces formed will be smaller and tailored for warfare in South East Asian conditions.

For French and the British voters the crucial question is, whether it's worth it? Thus it's a limited war.

In case of US, there's no need for conscription either but volunteers can be found from the unemployed masses starving for jobs. Again, the ground combat forces which will be formed will be tailored for Pacific conditions with strong Marine elements.

For US still struggling with depression this is not a crusade for democracy, it is a war to exterminate the Jap vermin daring to challenge the White men. Still, for the US it's a limited war.

For the French, British and US the war will involve a significant naval and aerial rearmament paid by peacetime, or slightly included, taxes.

[Jukra]

2. The Coalition and the War in the Pacific

1943

The parties acting against the Japan were named, by brilliant Goebbels, as the "Coalition of the Willing", in context of demonstrating superiority of the White Race against the Japanese. In convenient way the Chinese were explained away. Actual co-operation was more than difficult due to lack of trust between partners. In 1943 the Co-operation was it's best between French and the British, with their joint Anglo-French Staff, while German contribution was a single task force under British Pacific Fleet and a separate liaison command in China. The Regia Marine contingent, officially an independent fleet, was also under de facto command of British Pacific Fleet. Initially the Americans were more concentrated on building up resources for counterattack while making limited attacks on the periphery of Japanese sphere.

The year is started with the operation "Drumbeat" - a rare instance of Coalition military co-operation - a combined French-British-German American-Italian submarine offensive against Japanese supply lines. The results are devastating, even though American and German submarines are hampered by lack of reliable torpedoes. Admiral Dönitz, commanding the German contribution, notifies with satisfaction that his "Wolf-Pack" tactics against enemy convoys actually work. On the other hand, he worries about on how the Americans, UK and French forces are figuring out similar offensive tactics and are taking a note to improve their defenses.

Japanese leadership is puzzled on what to do the next; instead of starting negotiations with victorious Empire the Coalition refuses to budge. The solution is naturally a new Victory offensive centered upon conquest of the Andaman Islands. In famous Battle of Andamanes the IJN suffers heavy losses. At the same time, a carrier raid on US base of Midway turns into a major disaster.

In July a co-ordinating committee meeting is held, in which the Grand Strategy for continuation of war is to be decided. It is agreed that the general counteroffensive can only start in 1944, when first replacement ships of the US Navy are coming on-line, British and French expeditionary forces are fully fitted and trained and German training and supply effort in China has reached a level in which its possible to make a true offensive.

There is more significant problem with the aims of war; obviously Japan has to withdraw from China, but what else should be done? The strategic goals for 1944 will be the conquest of Marianas by the US, Malaya by a joint Anglo-French effort and establishment of airbases and shelter zone for the mentioned air bases in China by the Germans. Development of Me-264 bomber is speedily underway in Germany for Pacific use, also the development of B-29 is fully underway. In Britain, the RAF presses for development of Vickers Windsor long range heavy bomber.

1944

Soviet supplies continue to come to Korea and Manchuria, but At start of 1944 the Japanese sea lines of communications are seriously crumbling due to combined effects of the Coalition submarine forces, as torpedo problems of both USN and German Navy are solved. Submarine mining in Japanese home water also starts to have an significant effect.

Soviet supplies still come through to Manchuria and Japan but submarine and mining campaign is reducing use of even this seaway. In exchange for goods Japan is reduced to give intellectual property, mostly R&D on naval ships, but by 1944 even this route is exhausted. Stalin sees the chance for grab and gives orders for Japanese communists to prepare for insurgency when the conditions are ripe.

In the battle of Malaya in June 1944 the Japan tries to give a one massive blow against European naval forces and their hopes of invasion of Malaya. The conditions for the Japanese are judged excellent; supply lines from Brunei are short, and there is possibility to mass the fleet from several directions. The plan misfires completely due to combination of a horde of Coalition littoral water submarines, improved tactics and aircraft of the British carrier forces. Japanese surface forces take heavy mauling while the remaining air wings of their carriers take heavy losses.

On July the Chinese ground offensive starts and the Japanese are in retreat. Stalin cuts off supplies for Japan completely citing technical problems. Final significant naval battle of the Pacific War is fought in August, as the US invade Marianas. The result, known as the Marianas duck pond shoot, is surprisingly one sided against the IJN.

By September a famine starts in Japan while B-24's flying from Chinese bases are mining Japanese waters and bombing Japanese industries. Towards the end of the year there is significant civil unrest in Japan. The coalition ponders it's options; whether to demand unconditional surrender and risk Communist takeover as conditions in Japan deteriorate, or accept a negotiated peace. Britain and France favour negotiated peace, as the war is taking heavy toll at their economies and is not altogether popular in the home front.

In November the armistice is signed and peace negotiations begin. Armed communist insurgency begins in Korea and Soviet Forces move in to protect freedom of Korean citizens. Also, as there are spontaneous calls for assistance from Manchuria, Soviet forces start a peacekeeping operation in Manchuria. Coalition forces are landed in Chinese ports in order to protect Manchurian industries, requested by the new Japanese government which, though it despises Coalition, despises Communists even more.

There is a limited occupation of Japan, concentrated on some major naval bases and Tokyo area. As the Japan enters a period of internal political turmoil, the final peace accords resembling Versailles peace accords for Germany are signed.

Thus Japan is placed upon quite heavy conditions; her colonies are stripped of her, heavy war reparations are imbursed together with serious limits for her armed forces and industries. Unlike in Germany, the Emperor does not abdicate, quite obviously. Japan's armed forces are destroyed, her merchant marine sunk or captured, there is a famine... how could things be any worse for Japan?

[The Space Viking]

This is good. Subscribed, can't wait for more.

[Jukra]

3. The World after end of the Pacific War

The British and the French governments sigh in relief as the war in the Pacific is over. A bitter debate on the war starts almost immediately the war is over. Calls for reduction of the Royal Navy are made, as the Japanese military threat has been eliminated and there is a treaty arrangement with Germany. Scandinavian industries received a boost due to the war, as demands for Norwegian aluminium and shipping, Swedish metal products and Finnish wood and mineral products met increased demand due to the war.

Poland continues to pour vast amounts of its national income on her armed forces, very wary of the Soviet Union in the east.

Stalin counts himself as someone who benefited from the Pacific War. As the questioning about the purpose of the war and disillusionment over fighting it spreads in the UK and France the project to spread insurgencies in the colonies gains new power. In eyes of Asian nationalists, even if Japan lost, Japan showed that Asians can beat Europeans, the spell has been broken. He expects that as native levies, Algerian and Senegalian units of the French Army as well as the Africans of British Army will be demobilized there will be frustrated young men who want to gain respect, modernization and equality for their home countries.

The Soviet forces are occupying the Northern part of Korean peninsula, negotiating on it's future position with war weary Coalition members. In the South Korea Syngman Rhee tries to find support for Korean independence.

German trained, and partially equipped, Chinese forces are fully planning to start an offensive against Mao's communist guerrillas. Hitler promises that the help for Nationalist China will continue. In order not to lose influence, US support for Nationalists continues too. There is also the forthcoming fertile breeding ground for communism, India, which will surely be in turmoil even after the dominion status is granted.

In Indochina, Ho Chi Minh declares independence of Vietnam before French occupation troops are scheduled to come in. Declaration of Independence for Indonesia is made as well, the Japanese forces leaving armament for Indonesian forces in a tacit agreement.

In Iran, Reza Pahlavi ponders on future course of his nation. British power seems to be on descent, while the ascending Americans seem to be disinterested in Middle Eastern affairs, even though there are commercial interests in Saudi Arabia.

In the US, there is national celebration over the brilliant victory in the Pacific War. Combined with jubilant mood there are demands for cuts of the US Navy, as the Japanese threat has been eliminated. Industry faces anxiety as almost all defense orders are cancelled.

Italy has also satisfied it's national pride. Italian contribution, especially its long range submarines, proved to be extremely useful. However, Italian economy is ailing due to long time of heavy military spending. Germany is a clear winner of the war. In view of many laymen and commentators alike much of what Hitler says makes perfect sense; White race really is superior of lesser races, Communism is a mortal threat and National Socialism seems to be capable of not only producing superb fighting forces but also a brilliant economic progress. Compared to ripping internal debate of France and Britain there is of course nothing similar in Germany, united under one strong leadership.

Kriegsmarine leadership is in exstacy; it has had recent combat experience and enjoys more importance than before. Due to lessons of the Pacific War Raeder presses for German Naval Air Arm to equip the experimental carrier "Graf Zeppelin" and possible forthcoming future carriers together with some land-based support planes and gets it. To satisfy Göring, Hitler promises that the land forces component of Luftwaffe in the forthcoming rearmament will be a full Army sized independent formation. In an internal feud Göring makes sure that none of the major aircraft manufacturers will co-operate with Kriegsmarine, only Blohm & Voss which is in neck deep together with the Kriegsmarine will supply Kriegsmarine with aircraft.

Kriegsmarine also rewrites its portions of rearmament plan. As a naval air arm is to be built, some of the capital ships and heavy cruisers will be replaced by carriers. Additionally, the development and use of radar and long range patrol aircraft demands a development of a new kind of submarine, one capable of operating completely underwater.

[Jukra]

This is good. Subscribed, can't wait for more.

Thanks, I'll post the two following episodes, which have been written before, today. After that it's new work so the pace will slacken.

[Jukra]

4. Directive No 1
The Führer and Supreme Commander

Führer Headquarters
of the Armed Forces

January 15, 1945

9 copies

Directive No. 1

Preparation of German Armed Forces for expanding the Lebensraum

The German Armed Forces must be prepared to give Germany the Lebensraum she needs by threat or use of force. The Army's task will be to develop forces capable of beating resistance of France, Great Britain, Soviet Union or their combination, minor powers included, in the European landmass and British Isles, while on same time guarding Homeland against surprise attacks.

The Luftwaffe's task is to develop air power capable of:

1.) Guarding German homeland against any enemy air attack
2.) Breaking the will of the enemy via use of bombing
3.) Supporting the Army in its tasks, including airmobile forces
4.) Preparation of an expeditionary ground force capable of being sent away from the European land mass

The Kriegsmarine will develop forces capable of isolating the Europe from outside intervention, British Isles included, and methods and forces for transporting Army and Luftwaffe forces in order to support the Army in it's tasks.

The SS, though independent of Wehrmacht will develop an independent elite mobile force to support Wehrmacht in it's tasks

All these tasks will be fulfilled in co-operation with the German industry, whose main task will be to fulfill orders resulting from expansion.

Annex 1:

As planning goals the following strengths will be used, to be
reached on January 1, 1950, existing forces included:

Heer:

Heer will be formed around two main elements; mobile and defensive forces. Defensive forces will use reservist infantry divisions, while mobile forces will consist of armoured and mechanized divisions. The force goal in 1950 will include a total of 10 armoured, 10 mechanized and 60 infantry divisions. The main armoured chassis will be the Panther, to be produced in different versions. Force strength now is two armoured, four mechanized and four infantry divisions.

SS-will include 10 armoured and 20 mechanized divisions. (Total of four existing). SS-Artillery Corps tasked with breaking extensive fortifications will include new Maus superheavy tanks and superheavy artillery.

Luftwaffe:

Luftwaffe production is to concentrate on following types of aircraft:

Me-264 long range reconnaissance / bomber
JU-287 medium bomber
P.1101 tactical fighter (J29 Tunnan looking German plane)
P.1100 zerstörer fighter / tactical bomber
Me-263 rocket interceptor
V-1 follow on cruise missile (1000km range, 1000kg
warhead, 1000km/h speed)

Transport aircraft are mostly those drawn from Lufthansa stock. Luftwaffe will include also two parachute divisions and six airmobile divisions with capability to assault with two divisions at the same time. This force will be independent. Two of the airmobile divisions will be armoured, two mechanized. (contradiction, naturally)

As a basis for defense against air attack the production of surface-to-air missiles will commence right after their development is expected to be completed in 1947. Until SAM's are proven, the basis of air defense is 12.8 cm FlaK 40.

Kriegsmarine:

Battleships: 4 (2 existing)
Battlecruisers: (2 existing)
Aircraft carriers: Heavy carriers: 4
Light carriers: 12 (2 existing)
Heavy cruisers: (3 existing) (Assuming two sunk)
Light cruisers: 24 (M-class) (6 existing)
Destroyers: 150 (40 existing)
Submarines: 120 Type XXI
120 Type IX (69 existing)
60 Type VII (30 existing)
100 Type XXIII
10 Type XII (10 existing)
30 Type XXI-developed supply boats

Naval air arm to equip air wings of carriers, and land based aircraft capable of reconnaissance and anti-convoy operations (Blohm & Voss P.184.01)

Transport capability to assault transport two Army divisions on any point within 2000 kilometers of European land mass.

[Jukra]

5. Estimate on enemy forces

Note: This is the final episode written beforehand, so now on updates will come at slower pace. Feel free to comment!

15 Jan 1945

Abwehr Intelligence estimate: Possible Opponent Forces - Current and 1950 Predictions

France:

The French Army is in midst of modernization. It's current mobilized strength is 12 mechanized, cavalry and armoured divisions and 50 infantry divisions. There is also a number of colonial forces which are mainly expected to be committed in North Africa and Indochina. In addition to French Army strength the Maginot line must be added. French Colonial Forces were modernized during the Pacific War, but spending due to the war was mainly committed to them instead of Metropolitan forces. By 1950, in response to our build up, it is expected that France will modernize their mobile forces as well as a numbet of their infantry divisions, but is not expected to be able to modernize them all.

The French Air Force has a strong fighter and tactical bomber arm. First "Ouragan" jet fighters are expected to be introduced soon, and are expected to form the bulk of French Air Force fighter strength in 1950. The French Navy's units which will be expected to serve in 1950 include 4 Richelieu-class battleships and the class of new "Foch" class fleet carriers under construction. Their cruiser force will include 10 modern cruisers now in service. A response to our naval building program cannot be estimated yet, due to possible heavy military commitment to the rebellion in Indochina.

UK:

The British Army is a well trained force which is expected to have as good equipment as our own army forces in 1950. The expansion during Pacific War was directed towards further development of light infantry units. The demobilized strength will be around 6-8 divisions. The industrial strength of the country will allow extra forces to be formed, but it will take time before their industy is fully mobilized.

The Royal Air Force is a combat proven force with modern equipment. The introduction of Meteor and Vampire -fighters is expected to begin soon, and these types are expected to form the fighter strength of RAF in 1950. Barring technological breakthroughs, the bomber strength of RAF Bomber Command is expected to be formed around Vickers Windsor in 1950. The Royal Navy suffered no modern capital ship losses during the Pacific War (to make things easier the losses were on older type of ships). As older ships will be decommissioned the units which will be in use in 1950 will be 5 KGV and 6 Lion -class battleships and 7 fleet carriers. The fate of 10 Colossus-class light carriers under orders and various stages of completion is to be determined. The cruiser force will include 11 Town-class cruisers, 11 Dido-class cruisers and 12 Crown Colony -class cruisers.

A response to our own naval construction program is to be expected, with various opinions in our estimation group.

Soviet Union:

The information on Soviet forces is incomplete due to their succesful security measures. Their total mobilized strength is expected to be around 200 infantry divisions and 70 tank divisions. Bulk of the tank divisions will be equipped with modern T-34 tanks.

Soviet Navy by 1950 is expected to have 4 modern battleships and 23 modern cruisers. Soviets may keep also their older ships, of dubious value, in service.

Soviet Air Force by 1950 is expected to have introduced jet aircraft.

The pace of Soviet modernization process has apparently slackened due to heavy burden to maintaining these large forces.

United States:

In case of the United States the tremendous productive power of her industries must be respected. United States has currently Army consisting of 30 infantry divisions, in process of demobilization. Large amount of their equipment is scheduled to be sold to other countries or transferred to China. In 1950, barring re-armament, it's strength is probably going to be 5-10 active infantry divisions and 10-20 National Guard (Reserve) divisions. Army equipment is currently primarily developed for Pacific conditions and is of particularly light in nature.

United States Navy has benefited from the building program for the Pacific War. Even more important than actual active strength in 1950 is the potential in ships which will be undoubtely put on to reserve. Our best estimate is that Iowa-class battleships, Essex-class carriers and Cleveland and Baltimore class cruisers will be put on to reserve. There is also a number of light carriers, but it is doubtful that new projected jet fighters can be used from them.

United States Navy includes a Marine Corps which has methods and equipment to break through any current beach fortifications.

United States Army Air Force is the Air Force of the United States. It's main bomber strength is formed around B-24 and B-32 bombers, with a small number of B-29's coming on line. The main fighter strength is formed around P-46 and P-47 fighters. According to intelligence, production of P-80 jet fighter may begin soon.

[Axeman]

What is going to happen to Germany diplomaticaly, will they get an Anchluss and a Munich analouge?

[Astrodragon]

A few points..

Its highly unlikely that Germany would be able to use exports to western countries to fund/grow high tech areas like radio. German exports had to be heavily subsidised, and this in OTL very nearly led to serious economic sanctions against Germany. This is far more likely if they start trying to flood countries with high tech products.

Emigration to Palestine was controlled by the British, who were very unhappy at the numbers even in OTL. They certainly are not going to sit back and allow millions (and to satisfy the german antisemitism we are talking millions) to immegrate. Isnt going to happen. Which means there is a real problem with what Hitler and co do about the jews. Yes, you could change things so they were far less anti-semitic than in OTL, but we are now looking at a more and more different Germany (and one which may well not see the need to go as far as war at all)

[kclcmdr]

This is very intriguing...

With the growing threat & influence of the Soviet Union...

Wonders whether the Europeans will form an Alliance of convenience or Coalition against the growing threat of Stalin's Red Army waiting across the Eastern Marches near Poland, Hungary & Romania...

Wonders how the Baltic States and Finland are faring....

[wiking]

Emigration to Palestine was controlled by the British, who were very unhappy at the numbers even in OTL. They certainly are not going to sit back and allow millions (and to satisfy the german antisemitism we are talking millions) to immegrate.

German-Jewish people, even with Austria, were fewer than 1 million people. So it is incredibly unlikely that will be an issue, especially as most DON'T want to go to Palestine. Most will go to Britain, France, Austria, Italy, USA, anywhere else in Europe, most other places in the world, and THEN Palestine. Not really a big issue so long as it is just German Jews. The question is how world Jewish organizations deal with Germany in this scenario. They declared a boycott on Germany and tried to get foreign governments to pressure Germany to lay off their Jews in 1933, which was halted the next year when Hitler agreed to help them colonize Palestine by providing funds and pressure on Britain. Will he still do that here or will the boycott continue? IIRC it was pretty effective early on when the economy was till recovering in Germany.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Nazi_boycott_of_1933

[RyuDrago]

Surely, this TL will have a more devastating WWII... And even with the Atomic bomb, Germany could really win the conflict? I can't wait....

[Jukra]

Its highly unlikely that Germany would be able to use exports to western countries to fund/grow high tech areas like radio. German exports had to be heavily subsidised, and this in OTL very nearly led to serious economic sanctions against Germany. This is far more likely if they start trying to flood countries with high tech products

German products were extremely competitive in many fields, just like today, such as industrial machine tools, aircraft, ships etc. Export subsidies (which were utilized by practically every country during 1920's and 1930's) are less needed in a situation in which German economy is under smaller pressure by insane military spending. Just witness success of German industries after destruction of skilled manpower, factories and supply networks in early 1950's.

Emigration to Palestine was controlled by the British, who were very unhappy at the numbers even in OTL. They certainly are not going to sit back and allow millions (and to satisfy the german antisemitism we are talking millions) to immegrate. Isnt going to happen. Which means there is a real problem with what Hitler and co do about the jews. Yes, you could change things so they were far less anti-semitic than in OTL, but we are now looking at a more and more different Germany (and one which may well not see the need to go as far as war at all)

There is also more time as well as important leverage delivered by German support upon Anglo-French Pacific war. In a situation in which Japan is fighting a total war and Anglo-French-American alliance just a limited war there is no way Germany isn't able to have diplomatic leverage on Jewish and export markets question.

Number of German Jews living in German proper isn't in region of millions but, according to Wiki, some 522 000 of which just 214 000 were remaining in OTL 1939. Like other posters have mentioned, not all of them will go to Israel anyway.

[Astrodragon]

German products were extremely competitive in many fields, just like today, such as industrial machine tools, aircraft, ships etc. Export subsidies (which were utilized by practically every country during 1920's and 1930's) are less needed in a situation in which German economy is under smaller pressure by insane military spending. Just witness success of German industries after destruction of skilled manpower, factories and supply networks in early 1950's.



There is also more time as well as important leverage delivered by German support upon Anglo-French Pacific war. In a situation in which Japan is fighting a total war and Anglo-French-American alliance just a limited war there is no way Germany isn't able to have diplomatic leverage on Jewish and export markets question.

Number of German Jews living in German proper isn't in region of millions but, according to Wiki, some 522 000 of which just 214 000 were remaining in OTL 1939. Like other posters have mentioned, not all of them will go to Israel anyway.

Two points.
Read Wages of Destruction (for a start). It describes the contortions Germany made in OTL to get more foreign currency and get around trade agreements, and the results (not positive, and likely to get FAR worse for Germany in your timeline). They came really close to serious trade sanctions from the US and the Empire as it was (which would have been disastrous for Germany)

Sadly, even the relatively small number of Jews that wanted to emigrate had serious problems finding countries that would accept them. Hampered by the fact they couldnt take money with them (Germany simply hadnt the foreign currency to allow them to take it with them).

Now this may change during/after a Pacific war, but not until then, and after the US and the Empire are going to look very hard at any predatory trade action from Germany

[Jukra]

Read Wages of Destruction (for a start). It describes the contortions Germany made in OTL to get more foreign currency and get around trade agreements, and the results.

Wages of Destruction is an excellent, readable piece of economic history which unfortunately refers to OTL, in which Germany was committed to kamikaze rearmament. Due to various diplomatic and technical consequences the only really competitive pieces of German engineering were weapons which really weren't even available for foreign sales and due to steep prices weren't really affordable but for most desperate customers.

Sadly, even the relatively small number of Jews that wanted to emigrate had serious problems finding countries that would accept them. Hampered by the fact they couldnt take money with them (Germany simply hadnt the foreign currency to allow them to take it with them).

Yes, let's handwavium this away by longer time period and less pressure on German public finances.

[The Red]

Soviet Union:

The information on Soviet forces is incomplete due to their succesful security measures. Their total mobilized strength is expected to be around 200 infantry divisions and 70 tank divisions. Bulk of the tank divisions will be equipped with modern T-34 tanks.

Soviet Navy by 1950 is expected to have 4 modern battleships and 23 modern cruisers. Soviets may keep also their older ships, of dubious value, in service.

Soviet Air Force by 1950 is expected to have introduced jet aircraft.

The pace of Soviet modernization process has apparently slackened due to heavy burden to maintaining these large forces.

Surely the Soviets would have updated their forces by now, even with the lack of a war?

[KyleB]

Nice TL you have here. Subscribed.

[ThomasTheviking]

Quite fascinating TL.

Could you just summarize.....Whoa has nukes in this TL....and how many?

In the current political climate, with the Soviets having supported the former common enemy of Japan, is it not possible for the Germans to just focusing on going against the Soviets, but supported by the western allies, who also see the bigger fear?...at least initially.

Off course the problem would be, how to get past Poland, without causing a war with the Western Powers? Germany could make themselves allies with Poland and make them contribute to the attack against the Soviets. Germany take Western Poland, and get territories in the East in stead? Later on Germany can betray Poland, once the Soviets are defeated.
Maybe a little far fetched....but feel free to be inspired, if you feel. ;)

[Jukra]

Surely the Soviets would have updated their forces by now, even with the lack of a war?

By 1950, without overpressure of war, T-34 or something like it would be a robust and good tank. Especially as large scale tank combat has not yet occurred and the only combat experience Soviet tanks have had has been in Spain and Manchuria.

Now, other factor is that in OTL Stalin poured large amount of resources into an ocean going fleet. ITTL this will continue.

Could you just summarize.....Whoa has nukes in this TL....and how many?

Nobody yet. For Stalin it's dream of scientists, for Western powers just too expensive and for Germany obviously Jewish science. However the USN is making steady but slow progress on developing nuclear reactors in co-operation with Westinghouse. First reactor will go critical soon and fuel some progress together with increasing international tension.

[edvader]

Subscribed.Keep it up.:o

[Jukra]

6. End of the Great Consensus of Asian War

1945

On January in an effort to gain an edge in a budget war against the US Army and the US Army Air Corps the US Navy publicly announces the start of first nuclear reactor in the world. The test reactor is expected to lead into surface ship power plant within ten years. Westinghouse and General Electric are expected to start their first commercial power plants within same time frame.

The atomic programs in other leading powers gain a new momentum. As nuclear bombs are judged to be extremely large and expensive the focus is on nuclear energy with bomb projects reserving largely theoretical studies as the industrial machinery required to build any bomb is deemed extremely expensive.

On April Hitler holds yet another of his grand speeches in Sportpalats. The recent conflict in the Far East has definitely proven the superiority of White Race over the Asiatics. However, the end result of the war has proven that Jewish threat against Germans, and Whites everywhere, is not over as seen by Soviet action in the Far East. Thus, in order to defend Europe Germany has to start a large scale rearmament program.

In Britain Labour captures the House and new Prime Minister Attlee declares focus on domestic improvements in lieu of of global power. Britain is heavily indebted to United States due to recent, limited war which was mostly funded through domestic and foreign loans under the Tory Cabinet led by Winston Churchill. Privately the Labour efforts to build "New Jerusalem" have support from British leading traditional elites as a new, more cohesive state is believed to be able to contain threat of political extremism whether from Communism or Mosley's British Union of Fascists. Thus the slump following cancellation of defense orders is to be fought with Keynesian mean of funding welfare projects. With what money, many traditionalist ask.

One of the first decisions of Attlee government is to give India a dominion status. Indian leadership itself is divided and it's questionable whether the peninsula can hold itself together.

The Netherlands, minor combatant in recent Pacific War has a world class, albeit small, Navy, an Army with main focus on containing the uprisings in Indonesia and a wretched financial situation. Thus the world class navy is engaged in a seemingly endless and futile effort to control the Indonesian littoral, a conflict in which it's modern combatants, among them four Eendracht class cruisers, German Type IX submarines and two mighty Type 1047 class battlecruisers are of little use.

France is engaged in a bitter insurgency in Indochina. The communist led nationalists, Viet Minh, is proving itself to be a tricky adversary. Viet Minh is not the only threat to French Indochina. Nationalist China with it's strongly anti communist leanings and tendency to look for German models might make an intervention if the French are not able to contain seemingly viral communism on it's southern border. In fact, new French premier Auriol would be more than willing to quit Indochina but for the threat of rising right wing radicalism. Yet again France has won a war but somehow seemingly lost the peace.

[Jukra]

7. Why Germany chose an expansionist path?

1946

One of the enduring what-if's by historians since 1940's and 1950's has been the question why did Hitler not pursue a logical alliance policy in order to gain long term base for German domination of Europe. The answer is so simple it seems to be wrong. Hitler's National Socialism was built on a world view in which racial politics and value of land area itself was more important than simple military and political calculations.

Thus in 1946, in hindsight, Germany committed itself to a gigantic land grab destined to turn Eastern Europe into a mimic of American Frontier with Slavs replacing the Native Americans. In long term the aim was to achieve German leadership in Europe creating a continental power which could rival Asia and America (counting both North America as well as South America assumed to be under de facto US leadership).

The vision, while consistent and traceable through reading of leading Nazi works, was so alien to mainstream European political thinking of mid-1940's that it was somehow largely ignored before the Second World War.

This long term plan was also behind build-up of SS, which used a major portion of resources available for Heer expansion. The ideal was that the SS forces would constitute the ideological backbone of future Reich with the goal of forming a network of settlements in the depopulated East in which demobilized SS men would form a superior caste, rather like Teutonic Knights of idealized early medieval period.

First expansionist move of Hitler (if one does not count remilitarization of Rhineland which was achieved trough a diplomatic pact with France in 1942) was the Anschluss, accession of Austria into Greater German Reich in 1956. While Austrofascist dictatorship had never been very stable it did not manage to survive after (according to investigative journalism of Völkischer Beobächter) Jewish terrorists murdered entire Austrian cabinet in June 1946. In order to save Austria from Communism German mobile troops poured into Austria for peacekeeping duties. Although this was first declared to be a temporary mission the Führer could not ignore calls of large portion of Austrians who wished to rejoin the Reich. In a referendum in August over 90% of voters wanted to join the Reich.

Historians have questioned whether the actual majority of even German Austrians would have wanted to join Reich if permitted a free vote. While Austrians had been impressed by German economic progress the relative leisure of Austria compared with strict discipline of Nazi Germany was not altogether a negative factor in minds of many citizens. But what could be done, anyway? Austria was a small and poor, mainly agricultural country with relatively open border towards Germany. It's outdated military could offer no resistance and the country had no powerful friends.

While German leadership had counted on Italy to be a friendly neutral or even a possible ally the Austrian adventure caused a long rethink in mind of Mussolini, with dramatic results.

[ThomasTheviking]

7. Why Germany chose an expansionist path?


First expansionist move of Hitler (if one does not count remilitarization of Rhineland which was achieved trough a diplomatic pact with France in 1942) was the Anschluss, accession of Austria into Greater German Reich in 1956. While Austrofascist dictatorship had never been very stable it did not manage to survive after (according to investigative journalism of Völkischer Beobächter) Jewish terrorists murdered entire Austrian cabinet in June 1946. In order to save Austria from Communism German mobile troops poured into Austria for peacekeeping duties. Although this was first declared to be a temporary mission the Führer could not ignore calls of large portion of Austrians who wished to rejoin the Reich. In a referendum in August over 90% of voters wanted to join the Reich.



While German leadership had counted on Italy to be a friendly neutral or even a possible ally the Austrian adventure caused a long rethink in mind of Mussolini, with dramatic results.

BTW.....what has happened to the Jews within Germany int his TL?
Is Mussolini going to war over Austria...? Againsy Germany?....That would be suicidal...!...but interesting!