Butterflies of a successful Vinland in Europe?

[twovultures]

Most questions about a successful Vinland seem to focus on its affect on the Americas-but I was curious to learn what its effect in Europe would be. A successful Vinland colony would rob many modern day Icelanders of their ancestors (as said ancestors would stay in Vinland, instead of going back to Iceland and Greenland and having kids there), completely butterflying the people of Iceland so that individuals different from our timeline exist and act on the stage of history.

I don't know very much about Icelandic history, so what effect would this have in Europe? I know that Denmark was involved with Iceland politically and militarily, so how would an Iceland with different individuals, involved in trade with a thriving Vinland colony, affect Denmark? And how could this, in turn, affect Denmark's allies and enemies in Scandinavia and other parts of Europe?

[Anaxagoras]

With so many centuries in which to work, the butterflies would be so massive that modern Europe would look nothing like OTL at all.

[SavoyTruffle]

Other than that, the direct effects could lead to an earlier exchange of diseases. Of course, if the other Europeans settle the New World earlier...

[Elfwine]

With so many centuries in which to work, the butterflies would be so massive that modern Europe would look nothing like OTL at all.

Would there really be all that much that this would cause to be different?

I mean, how many Europeans would know the difference in say 1200?

Maybe its just me, but the idea that because Vinland is settled successfully that the Byzantine Empire conquers Western Europe using gunpowder (by 1200) seems...improbable.

Picking a deliberate far fetched outcome to make a point.

[Zuvarq]

The differences will be no more than those you'd receive by merely 're-running' history from a certain point.

[arctic warrior]

Most questions about a successful Vinland seem to focus on its affect on the Americas-but I was curious to learn what its effect in Europe would be. A successful Vinland colony would rob many modern day Icelanders of their ancestors (as said ancestors would stay in Vinland, instead of going back to Iceland and Greenland and having kids there), completely butterflying the people of Iceland so that individuals different from our timeline exist and act on the stage of history.

I don't know very much about Icelandic history, so what effect would this have in Europe? I know that Denmark was involved with Iceland politically and militarily, so how would an Iceland with different individuals, involved in trade with a thriving Vinland colony, affect Denmark? And how could this, in turn, affect Denmark's allies and enemies in Scandinavia and other parts of Europe?

On the Denmark part - Iceland only became part of the dual monarchy 1380 when Margrethe son Olaf was recognized as heir to the throne. Then it stayed part of Denmark-Norway till the dissolving 1814/15 by the treaty of Kiel/Congress of Vienna only to gain independence 1944 when due to WWII the two kingdoms were separated. (Denmark and Iceland)

The real problem is keeping up communications when the little ice age sets in closing off the crossings around 1440. (when the last journey was made to the Western Settlement and found deserted)
Something else than knarr's would be needed to secure that or some development of the knarr to make it able to make the voyage from Vinland to Iceland without the stopover in Greenland.
That is more difficult than it seems as the Norse in Greenland would go north along the coast to about Sisimiut to cross the Davis Stait at its narrow then go south to Vinland.
Due to the increase in pack ice this wouldn't be possible so something had to be done to enable navigation beyond the Norse ability!
That shipping did become available it seems around the 1473+ expedition of Pining/Pothorst to Greenland. Apparently they followed the Norse route up along the Greenland coast and then had to turn back because of the ice and difficulty in navigation. Some claim they made it to Labrador???

So you'd face a gap in communications for something like 50-100 years during which the Vinland colony would develop independently.

Regarding effect upon Denmark-Norway: little to say if any except a place to dump off annoying peoples instead of having to kill them.
Trade was done with the North Atlantic territories but not much.
If the Norse/Norwegians/Danes managed to discover the Grand Banks some revenue could be reaped from the colony.
Apart from metals that was mined in Norway and pelts from Norway/Kola peninsular what would be the trade off? Not much I'm afraid. Getting to Asia would be far more profitable.
Now if the Vinlanders would be able to make their way to Central America/Caribbean the picture would be interesting. That would promise the easy gains for little effort but would still need the upkeep of communications or a rush following reestablishment of it around 1480 to beat the Spanish/Portuguese.

[The Professor]

So essentially, in terms of impact on Europe: not much until the late 1400s.

How does the rest of Europe react to an already established Danish colony in the New World?
Would Denmark-Norway and Sweden agree to West-East division?
Does the Pope still create a Spanish-Portuguese division like the Treaty of Tordesilla (and Moluccas etc)? Or is Vinland taken into account?

[Cash]

Permanent settlement in Vinland would require a ship that could reliably make the journey with a high probability of returning to Iceland or Europe with enough cargo to make the trip worthwhile in the first place. It feels like a chicken-and-egg situation -- you need a ship that can exploit Vinland but you also need Vinland to spur the creation of the ship.

Assuming that happens, then the new maritime technology would eventually spread to the rest of Europe -- especially after word of the bounty of the Grand Banks got out. So perhaps an earlier start to the Age of Exploration? The political and mercantile structures required for regular commerce with Vinland and the other North American colonies that would follow could push the Vikings in the direction of a more centralized, capitalistic culture in Europe that doesn't depend so much on raiding and invading other nations.That would have knock-on effects from Ireland to the Ottoman Empire. And how does all this affect the spread of bubonic plague, both in Europe and in the Americas, in the mid-1400s?

[chornedsnorkack]

Permanent settlement in Vinland would require a ship that could reliably make the journey with a high probability of returning to Iceland or Europe with enough cargo to make the trip worthwhile in the first place. It feels like a chicken-and-egg situation -- you need a ship that can exploit Vinland but you also need Vinland to spur the creation of the ship.

No, you do not need a different ship.

Iceland to Faroes or mainland Norway or Scotland was quite a long hop. Iceland to Greenland - the habitable southern tip - was another long hop. South Greenland to Labrador or Newfoundland will not be longer. Completely doable with knarrs.

Now, a Newfoundland colony could be viable with as few as a few hundred settled farmers (Greenland Western Settlement was). It would be important as source of timber, grain, iron etc. for Greenland, not so important for Iceland and insignificant for Europe.

While islandhopping via Iceland and Greenland was perfectly doable with knarrs, it was expensive. So, when the Newfoundland colony expands to thousands and tens of thousands of people, the trade with Europe could encourage exploration for shortcuts. Such as using the prevailing westerlies to sail straight east from Newfoundland to Ireland (and then returning by islandhopping via Iceland and Greenland, exploiting the polar easterlies behind the cyclones).

[mrmandias]

Any parts of the Columbian exchange that would occur earlier? Maize and beans?

[chornedsnorkack]

Any parts of the Columbian exchange that would occur earlier? Maize and beans?

Earlier, but not at once. The first settled and most populous part of Vinland - Newfoundland - is too cold for maize, and the Norse settle there precisely because maize is not grown there.

[Pkmatrix]

Earlier, but not at once. The first settled and most populous part of Vinland - Newfoundland - is too cold for maize, and the Norse settle there precisely because maize is not grown there.

Oh? Why's that? :confused:

[chornedsnorkack]

Oh? Why's that? :confused:
Because Newfoundland (and other cold climate parts of North America, like Labrador or Maritimes) had sparse population, due to the Skraelings being hunter-gatherers. Since the Skraelings were few, the Norse might fight them off or compensate them for the lands taken (like they did with Sami of Northern Norway).

When the Norse explore southern parts of North America, they will find dense settlement of maize growers. They would trade but (since the land is expensive and there is more available land back in the North) sail back home rather than settle down and learn to grow maize.

[arctic warrior]

No, you do not need a different ship.

Iceland to Faroes or mainland Norway or Scotland was quite a long hop. Iceland to Greenland - the habitable southern tip - was another long hop. South Greenland to Labrador or Newfoundland will not be longer. Completely doable with knarrs.

Except it wasn't done that way.
The hop from Iceland to Greenland wasn't done aiming at the southern tip. It was a strait going west and when having landfall by identifiable landmarks then turn south to the Eastern Settlement.
The hop from Greenland to Vinland was as already explained by going north to cross the narrow part of Davis Strait and then south to Vinland.

[pa_dutch]

Would there really be all that much that this would cause to be different?

I mean, how many Europeans would know the difference in say 1200?

Maybe its just me, but the idea that because Vinland is settled successfully that the Byzantine Empire conquers Western Europe using gunpowder (by 1200) seems...improbable.

Picking a deliberate far fetched outcome to make a point.

In the short term, no, but in the long term? With an earlier spread of Old World diseases, crops, and technologies in the New World, the Native Americans have more time to catch up. If the North American east coast is heavily populated with indigenous peoples who are immune to the these diseases, have stronger defence mechanisms than their OTL counterparts, and have awareness of who these people across the Atlantic are, it would be much more difficult for European settlers to displace them. That would mean no outlet for the population surplus in Europe, which would lead to increased social pressures.

[Elfwine]

In the short term, no, but in the long term? With an earlier spread of Old World diseases, crops, and technologies in the New World, the Native Americans have more time to catch up. If the North American east coast is heavily populated with indigenous peoples who are immune to the these diseases, have stronger defence mechanisms than their OTL counterparts, and have awareness of who these people across the Atlantic are, it would be much more difficult for European settlers to displace them. That would mean no outlet for the population surplus in Europe, which would lead to increased social pressures.

Not sure if a thriving Vinland is enough to do this, but agreed that it does make things different - the disease issue may or may not work out that way, but I really do doubt that it would lead to any meaningful awareness of "who these people across the Atlantic are" for most of the Americas.

Depends a lot on what happens in Vinland - if Vinland is a distant colony, that's one thing, if its a thriving center for exporting furs and such, that's another.

But its not going to be doing much to import Old World crops and technologies unless the Vinlanders themselves are eagerly spreading those things - or those in contact with them (directly, that is) are. And I can't see why they would - preserve the stuff for themselves. It won't work perfectly, but its not as if the more complicated stuff like forging swords instead of just having them, say is going to be easy to copy without actual instruction.

[chornedsnorkack]

But its not going to be doing much to import Old World crops and technologies unless the Vinlanders themselves are eagerly spreading those things - or those in contact with them (directly, that is) are. And I can't see why they would - preserve the stuff for themselves. It won't work perfectly, but its not as if the more complicated stuff like forging swords instead of just having them, say is going to be easy to copy without actual instruction.
Agriculture WAS expanding in OTL North America between 11th and 15th century. The maize growers slowly bred maize varieties to put up with cool summers and spread to areas where maize did not grow in 11th century, like Lower St. Lawrence, or Georgian Bay region.

Now, TTL, 11th century, perhaps late 11th century, Norse arrive on Lake Ontario, or New England, and create a small trading settlement. Its main goal is trading (most people whose main goal is farming stay behind in Newfoundland), but they do need to farm and keep animals (because their trading partners do not have much to supply them).

But since their neighbours and trade partners (and soon relatives) do have the lifestyle that allows for farming, they soon learn to grow European crops. The Norse would have no objections: their monopoly of big sailing ships is unaffected, so is their monopoly of iron production. If their trade partners (and perhaps taxpayers) have more productive and reliable agriculture, the Norse only benefit.

Could you have High Medieval Canada where a small elite of Norse speaking (but by looks more than three fourth Skraeling) nobles, clergy, merchants and artisans dominates a large population of Christian, Iroquois speaking peasantry which settles increasing areas of forests?

[Valdemar II]

Agriculture WAS expanding in OTL North America between 11th and 15th century. The maize growers slowly bred maize varieties to put up with cool summers and spread to areas where maize did not grow in 11th century, like Lower St. Lawrence, or Georgian Bay region.

Now, TTL, 11th century, perhaps late 11th century, Norse arrive on Lake Ontario, or New England, and create a small trading settlement. Its main goal is trading (most people whose main goal is farming stay behind in Newfoundland), but they do need to farm and keep animals (because their trading partners do not have much to supply them).

But since their neighbours and trade partners (and soon relatives) do have the lifestyle that allows for farming, they soon learn to grow European crops. The Norse would have no objections: their monopoly of big sailing ships is unaffected, so is their monopoly of iron production. If their trade partners (and perhaps taxpayers) have more productive and reliable agriculture, the Norse only benefit.

Could you have High Medieval Canada where a small elite of Norse speaking (but by looks more than three fourth Skraeling) nobles, clergy, merchants and artisans dominates a large population of Christian, Iroquois speaking peasantry which settles increasing areas of forests?

The problem are that they won't have time to learn the Norse farming technic, they will first be hit by a massive die off, because of Euroasian diseases, while the Norse are going through a population boom. This will open the area to Norse takeover. You will especially see this along the American east coast and Great Lakes. But likely in the entire Mississippi watersheed. But they are going to a chance in the Deep South to reestablish their population before the Norse can move in. The Great Plains will likely only be colonised in the 17th or 18th century, but it will be dominated by Amerindian horse nomads (on ponies) for centuries, and the extra centuries may enable them to survive to a greater degree, especially in the south.

Caribbian may more or less go free of diseases, unless the Norse land there in either case I don't leave a big chance for long term survival. Through if the Norse contact them first, we will likely see a mixed disease resitant population living in the area by 1500, with agricultural* and late iron age metallurgy.

Mesoamerica will likely be hit by diseases centuries before actual contact with Norse or other European and may be introduced to pigs and horse rather early too. This give them a good chance to survive next contact with the Europeans.

*Likely a mixed crop and domesticated packet of European and Mesoamerican crops and animals.

[DuQuense]

The real problem is keeping up communications when the little ice age sets in closing off the crossings around 1440. (when the last journey was made to the Western Settlement and found deserted)
Something else than knarr's would be needed to secure that or some development of the knarr to make it able to make the voyage from Vinland to Iceland without the stopover in Greenland.
That is more difficult than it seems as the Norse in Greenland would go north along the coast to about Sisimiut to cross the Davis Stait at its narrow then go south to Vinland.
Due to the increase in pack ice this wouldn't be possible so something had to be done to enable navigation beyond the Norse ability!
That shipping did become available it seems around the 1473+ expedition of Pining/Pothorst to Greenland. Apparently they followed the Norse route up along the Greenland coast and then had to turn back because of the ice and difficulty in navigation. Some claim they made it to Labrador???

So you'd face a gap in communications for something like 50-100 years during which the Vinland colony would develop independently.
Because Newfoundland (and other cold climate parts of North America, like Labrador or Maritimes) had sparse population, due to the Skraelings being hunter-gatherers. Since the Skraelings were few, the Norse might fight them off or compensate them for the lands taken (like they did with Sami of Northern Norway).
One of the reason the Norse gave up on Vinland so easily was most of the expedition was the Equalilent of -Farm Boys off on a Adventure-
So what you need is Soldier types.

So while Leif is running around Greenland/Vinland, Some Bigwig back in Norseland gets in Political trouble.
He loads up His Ships with his Household, Troops and Villagers and flees west.
Arriving in Iceland He encounters Leif & His Men, and learns about the Good Farm land in Vinland.
Convincing Leif to Guide Him, they set off for Vinland.

Arriving the Bigwig has enuff Men to cut down trees and start building a Castle and Walled Village.

When the Skaelings attack the Troops easily chase then off [Better Weapons/ Discipline]

over the next several centuries there is a small trickle of people arriving, But Vinland doesn't have much to trade that isn't available in the forest back Home.
Or to attract settlers except land, and that is easier to get to in Normandy or Russia.

Even this trickle dries up around the Early 1200's with the Little Ice Age.

By the 1400's when the last Greenlanders move South the Vinlanders are a established Tribal Nation.
With the Inuits to the North, and the Aliquions/Iroquois to the South, They stretch from Labrador/Newfoundland west to Hudson Bay/North Shore GLakes.
They live in log Walled Villages With Castles [NW Frontier Forts movies], Their Iron Weapons [Knifes, Arrowheads] are traded continent wide.
[Manhattan Indians are not going to be impressed by some Metal Trinkets and Beads]

In 1500 a Norse Sailor in Cabot's crew almost understands the Norse Creole spoken by the Vinlanders. And trade begins.
However over the 1500's attempts by Europeans to establish profitable trade posts is hurt by there already being established prices for Metal Goods.

This has no Effect on the Spanish in the Caribbean, But the Aztecs have had [very expensive] Iron Weapons for Years, and this has speed up the adoption of Bronze.

This means No mass Aztec Gold Dump into Europe, Spain concentrates on the Reconquestia into Morocco/NAfrica. Spain does not become Europe's 800 pound Gorilla.

Settlement continues in the Sugar Isles [Antilles].

Europe continues in a Race between France and Spain for Domination.

[XNM]

A successful Vinland colony would rob many modern day Icelanders of their ancestors (as said ancestors would stay in Vinland, instead of going back to Iceland and Greenland and having kids there), completely butterflying the people of Iceland so that individuals different from our timeline exist and act on the stage of history.

I misinterpreted this at first. I thought you said people from OTL would exist in ITTL Vinland. :o

Anyways...disregarding the more extreme ideas of the butterfly effect, it could be possible that a surviving Norse colony in Vinland could lead to the introduction of New World flora to Europe, as well as syphilis. If mainland Europeans reach the New World at about the same time as OTL, the indigenous population of North America may have built up a resistance to European diseases, and may have adopted some Norse technology.

[twovultures]

/off topic I think some of the respondents on this thread are somewhat overestimating both the ability and the willingness of the Vinlanders to travel. Vinland was horribly far away from the center of the known world (from the viking standpoint), and took long distances and great effort to reach. Without transforming into a center in its own right, I don't see the Vikings going further south than OTL's New England before the other Europeans jump on the exploring bandwagon.

You might respond to this by saying that Vinland would become a center of exploration. This could happen, but it would take centuries of population growth, and would require Vinland to become self-sufficient in everything, including iron production. This would take centuries. Also, the epidemic diseases that ravaged the Native Americans were not fully established in Europe at the time that Vinland was founded. With the natural quarantine of the Icelandic and Greenland ports, it's possible that the Vinlanders would pass on European crops and livestock without passing on the worst of European diseases. If they are hit by smallpox or measles, they will be affected at least as badly as the natives /off topic

Back on topic, it seems as though a successful Vinland would not greatly affect Europe outside of Iceland-it would be a fringe settlement, and while the individuals of Iceland would be very different people ITTL, the main course of history would not be affected. The only way this could change is if Vinland opens up large scale trade with mainland Europe, but as stated above, it would take centuries for Vinland to become powerful enough to exploit the natural resources in its neck of the woods to really get an early trans-Atlantic trade going.

[Errnge]

well, i think there is the possibility that the church would send missions like they did to Greenland, maybe making a diocese. a lucky Skraeling might come to europe and be study as a theologian, which with the largest ripple affect possible could change christian doctrine/dogma one way or another depending on said skraeling's ideas. an idea in the right place can change almost anything.

also, basque traders and fishermen were off the coast of greenland newfoundland and labrador before cabot. so there is wealth in the fishing in these waters, which (if better shipping technology is acquired along the way) could make vinland more viable and make it less isolated.

long run, once the spanish start exploiting the americas, denmark-norway might find new found interest in the almost completely forgotten vinland, and might start exploiting the fur trade there.

syphilis could spread into europe earlier.

[Mr Qwerty]

syphilis could spread into europe earlier.

Assuming it wasn't already there, for which there's a lot of evidence.

[Elfwine]

One of the reason the Norse gave up on Vinland so easily was most of the expedition was the Equalilent of -Farm Boys off on a Adventure-
So what you need is Soldier types.

So while Leif is running around Greenland/Vinland, Some Bigwig back in Norseland gets in Political trouble.
He loads up His Ships with his Household, Troops and Villagers and flees west.
Arriving in Iceland He encounters Leif & His Men, and learns about the Good Farm land in Vinland.
Convincing Leif to Guide Him, they set off for Vinland.

What in the name of Thor are "soldier types" and "troops" supposed to mean here? His huscarls?

The average Norseman is not exactly an unarmed, untrained fighter who doesn't know which end of a sword to hold. Not to mention that military discipline even for huscarls is not some great professional army standard of discipline.

Maybe a few of them as a professional cadre would help, but it would not mean as much as you think it does.

[Ganesha]

Interestingly, one of the first threads I ever posted was on this topic. Here's what I said:

I was wondering about how a different Vinland colonization scenario might affect the new New World.

What if instead of lasting 10 years and being highly-halfhearted, the Viking settlement was actively attempted and lasted closer to 60 years, but still eventually was given up? A longer time period of colonization would mean that the Vikings would bring at least some horses and cattle to the New World, and when they gave up the colony, it is very likely that some of the horses and cattle would be passed to the Indian tribes, if the local Native Americans hadn't bought them already.

Therefore, 400 years before Columbus or someone Columbus-esque, horses and cattle are rapidly spreading throughout the New World at the same rate they did OTL. What effect would this have on Native American societies, especially considering they could utilize the new animals while not being dragged down by smallpox and European attacks and encroachment? How much more difficult would later European colonization attempts be?

I think it's a very interesting question. Does anyone know of any good TL's on this topic?

[chornedsnorkack]

/off topic I think some of the respondents on this thread are somewhat overestimating both the ability and the willingness of the Vinlanders to travel. Vinland was horribly far away from the center of the known world (from the viking standpoint), and took long distances and great effort to reach. Without transforming into a center in its own right, I don't see the Vikings going further south than OTL's New England before the other Europeans jump on the exploring bandwagon.

There is no bandwagon for the other Europeans to jump on. Nobody else does, in 11th-12th century, have the experience and technology to undertake the long voyages across the cold northern seas. OTL Iceland mainly traded with Norway and Norse settlements in Iceland and Faroes. When did Hanse German, Dutch, Scotch and English ships start to visit Iceland?

Or look at Siberia and northern Europe. Norwegians could sail to Barents Sea and trade there. Yet they left the Novgorodian control of the area, tenuous as it was, in place.

You might respond to this by saying that Vinland would become a center of exploration. This could happen, but it would take centuries of population growth, and would require Vinland to become self-sufficient in everything, including iron production. This would take centuries.
No. We hear of iron smelted in Iceland in the first few decades of settlement. In a few decades, if Vinland settlement endures, the availability of firewood for smelting means they would not only be self-sufficient in iron and trade iron to Skraelings, but also supply Greenland and Iceland (which were short of firewood).

Quite tiny populations of OTL 17th century Quebec and Louisiana were able to act as centres of exploration over huge areas. TTL 11th century Vinland would act likewise.
A
Back on topic, it seems as though a successful Vinland would not greatly affect Europe outside of Iceland-it would be a fringe settlement, and while the individuals of Iceland would be very different people ITTL, the main course of history would not be affected.
One obvious influence on the history of Iceland will be that Iceland has 2 alternative sources for timber, grain and iron. Not just Norway in Europe as per OTL, but also Vinland.

[tormsen]

The problem are that they won't have time to learn the Norse farming technic, they will first be hit by a massive die off, because of Euroasian diseases, while the Norse are going through a population boom. This will open the area to Norse takeover. You will especially see this along the American east coast and Great Lakes. But likely in the entire Mississippi watersheed. But they are going to a chance in the Deep South to reestablish their population before the Norse can move in. The Great Plains will likely only be colonised in the 17th or 18th century, but it will be dominated by Amerindian horse nomads (on ponies) for centuries, and the extra centuries may enable them to survive to a greater degree, especially in the south.

I doubt that the Norse population growth will be enough to completely take-over, even assuming the 90% disease die-offs of OTL for the natives. There is going to be a significant amount of admixture, particularly if there are more Norse men than women. I would expect it to end up looking pretty mestizo.

[Mr Qwerty]

I doubt that the Norse population growth will be enough to completely take-over, even assuming the 90% disease die-offs of OTL for the natives. There is going to be a significant amount of admixture, particularly if there are more Norse men than women. I would expect it to end up looking pretty mestizo.

Right. It's not going to be English-style replacement, if for no other reason that the Norse don't have the population (and they have much smaller transocean shipping capacity).

[Cash]

No, you do not need a different ship.

Iceland to Faroes or mainland Norway or Scotland was quite a long hop. Iceland to Greenland - the habitable southern tip - was another long hop. South Greenland to Labrador or Newfoundland will not be longer. Completely doable with knarrs.

I'm not arguing that the knarr wasn't an effective vessel. Please note I said a "ship that could reliably make the journey with a high probability of returning to Iceland or Europe with enough cargo to make the trip worthwhile in the first place." I realize you're setting yourself up as the Norse expert on this thread, but the knarr had severe limitations. Yes, it could and obviously did navigate the North Atlantic. Much smaller boats have made the journey successfully. But -- It was small, barely 50 feet long usually, and while it had enough room to carry high value cargoes like furs and people and the occasional cow or sheep, it wasn't an optimal long-distance ship if we want to see a viable long-term settlement in Vinland in contact with Europe regularly enough to induce butterflies. As you note the knarr was an expensive way to communicate across an ocean. While there aren't any figures on survival rates among North Atlantic Viking voyages, other ships that size built in Colonial America rarely lasted more than two or three trips across the North Atlantic, assuming they survived the first. They were usually relegated to coastal trading after one or two trips, such as the Virginia of Sagadahoc.

As the Vikings explored farther south and farther inland, likely up the St. Lawrence and down into the Gulf of Maine, the potential for fur trading with the natives and the discovery of mineral deposits grows. Also, pre-Black Death population pressures in Europe could induce some emigration to the new land, especially as the more southerly explorations reveal a milder climate and better farmland than northern Labrador. All of which forces the development of bigger and better ships to exploit North America much earlier than they would otherwise be seen as needed.

Now, a Newfoundland colony could be viable with as few as a few hundred settled farmers (Greenland Western Settlement was). It would be important as source of timber, grain, iron etc. for Greenland, not so important for Iceland and insignificant for Europe.

While islandhopping via Iceland and Greenland was perfectly doable with knarrs, it was expensive. So, when the Newfoundland colony expands to thousands and tens of thousands of people, the trade with Europe could encourage exploration for shortcuts. Such as using the prevailing westerlies to sail straight east from Newfoundland to Ireland (and then returning by islandhopping via Iceland and Greenland, exploiting the polar easterlies behind the cyclones).

[chornedsnorkack]

I'm not arguing that the knarr wasn't an effective vessel. Please note I said a "ship that could reliably make the journey with a high probability of returning to Iceland or Europe with enough cargo to make the trip worthwhile in the first place." I realize you're setting yourself up as the Norse expert on this thread, but the knarr had severe limitations. Yes, it could and obviously did navigate the North Atlantic. Much smaller boats have made the journey successfully. But -- It was small, barely 50 feet long usually, and while it had enough room to carry high value cargoes like furs and people and the occasional cow or sheep, it wasn't an optimal long-distance ship if we want to see a viable long-term settlement in Vinland in contact with Europe regularly enough to induce butterflies.
Depends on which butterflies....
As you note the knarr was an expensive way to communicate across an ocean. While there aren't any figures on survival rates among North Atlantic Viking voyages, other ships that size built in Colonial America rarely lasted more than two or three trips across the North Atlantic, assuming they survived the first. They were usually relegated to coastal trading after one or two trips, such as the Virginia of Sagadahoc.

As the Vikings explored farther south and farther inland, likely up the St. Lawrence and down into the Gulf of Maine, the potential for fur trading with the natives and the discovery of mineral deposits grows. Also, pre-Black Death population pressures in Europe could induce some emigration to the new land, especially as the more southerly explorations reveal a milder climate and better farmland than northern Labrador.
Probably not.

Precisely because of the limitations of knarr.

A subsistence farmer with his family, animals and seed supply is high-volume, low-value goods compared to some other trade goods. With expensive small knarrs, emigrants may take the trips like Norway-Iceland, or Iceland-Greenland, or Iceland-Vinland - but from Europe direct to Vinland, whether islandhopping or straight over empty ocean, gets too expensive even with 13th century population pressures. And that would hold until better and cheaper ships come along in 17th century.

There was a reason why 16th century Spaniards picked the populous Central and Southern America where they could conquer and exploit Indians, and ignored the less densely settled areas like North America. Only in 17th century did English start farming settlement.

A settlement of a few hundred Norse on a small patch of Newfoundland might be sustainable - yet keep growing over centuries because of natural increase, continuous trickle of immigrants from Greenland and Iceland, and interbreeding with Skraelings.

And the trade all the way to Europe would be limited to high value, low volume goods - including a few passengers.

As the settlement expands further south to warmer climates, the few immigrants who come from, say, Ireland or England or Germany may introduce warmer climate crops like wheat or vines (Leif had a German in his crew who knew vines). But they would still be few, and they would soon teach the use of wheat to their neighbouring Norse, and also Skraelings.
All of which forces the development of bigger and better ships to exploit North America much earlier than they would otherwise be seen as needed.

When the population of Vinland grows and the demand for low volume, high value trade to Europe increases, yes, it creates incentive for better ships.

[twovultures]

Chornedsnorkack: Louisiana and Quebec may have been the base for a wide range of exploration, but they were supported by a powerful nation-state in Europe which was eager to encourage as much exploration as possible. A self sufficient Vinland state would not find much to trade for with the closest natives. The only reason they would have to explore would be to find new land to settle-and it would take a while before they reach that stage in population growth. I just don't seem them going as far as some commenters suggest that they would.

If Vinland becomes a major supplier of wood to Iceland, would Iceland try and keep a greater independence from mainland Europe? Without being dependent on supplies from the Scandinavian countries, they may decide that they don't want to be dictated to by the kings of said countries.

[The Professor]

Chornedsnorkack: Louisiana and Quebec may have been the base for a wide range of exploration, but they were supported by a powerful nation-state in Europe which was eager to encourage as much exploration as possible. A self sufficient Vinland state would not find much to trade for with the closest natives. The only reason they would have to explore would be to find new land to settle-and it would take a while before they reach that stage in population growth. I just don't seem them going as far as some commenters suggest that they would.

If Vinland becomes a major supplier of wood to Iceland, would Iceland try and keep a greater independence from mainland Europe? Without being dependent on supplies from the Scandinavian countries, they may decide that they don't want to be dictated to by the kings of said countries.

Yes I agree, Vinland will remain small until 1700s if it survives.
I'm far more interested in the ramifications with European politics to an evident Danish-Norwegian colony in the "New World"

[chornedsnorkack]

Chornedsnorkack: Louisiana and Quebec may have been the base for a wide range of exploration, but they were supported by a powerful nation-state in Europe which was eager to encourage as much exploration as possible. A self sufficient Vinland state would not find much to trade for with the closest natives. The only reason they would have to explore would be to find new land to settle-and it would take a while before they reach that stage in population growth. I just don't seem them going as far as some commenters suggest that they would.

Look at Ottar, from 9th century. He was a rich peasant or petty chieftain from Northern Norway, perhaps somewhere in the Lofotes. One of several who dwelt in the area.

He owned and sailed a ship, and in addition to trading with the local Sami, sailed east as far as Archangelsk, where he traded with Biarmians (who were sedentary, populous and rich compared to Sami). He also sailed his own ship west to go all the way to England (where he traded and recounted the story of his trips).

I suggest that Vinland would have a few chieftains like Ottar - acknowledging loose supremacy of a Thing and/or paramount chief/king of Vinland, but basically free to own their ships and sail south to trade with the richer and more numerous Skraelings far to the south (like Montreal or New England) as well as sail northeast to Greenland and Iceland.

If Vinland becomes a major supplier of wood to Iceland, would Iceland try and keep a greater independence from mainland Europe? Without being dependent on supplies from the Scandinavian countries, they may decide that they don't want to be dictated to by the kings of said countries.
Indeed. That would make butterflies in 13th century (when Norway OTL subdued Greenland and Iceland) and as early as 1152.
I'm far more interested in the ramifications with European politics to an evident Danish-Norwegian colony in the "New World"
No such thing. Vinland would be too strong and too isolated to be taken over by Norway. Actually I suggest that Vinland would also prevent Norwegian control of Iceland and Greenland.

[mowque]

Better figure out a way to cut back on the ice that cut Vinland off..

[Mr Qwerty]

Better figure out a way to cut back on the ice that cut Vinland off..

Well, IIRC a major climate shift occured at about that time which made the North Atlantic colder (and ultimately doomed the Greenland colony). If that doesn't happen... well, that's a whole different POD. And a big change it is, since the same climate shift made North America drier and northern Europe wetter.

[kasumigenx]

Scandanavian America will be a surprise to Columbus.

[twovultures]

No such thing. Vinland would be too strong and too isolated to be taken over by Norway. Actually I suggest that Vinland would also prevent Norwegian control of Iceland and Greenland.


Would they be prepared to fight a war, if it came to that?

Mind you, perhaps only the threat of war would make the Scandinavian polities back off. Vinland need not be a power, but merely enough of a nuisance to keep Iceland and Greenland from being the fight for the European thrones.

[chornedsnorkack]

Would they be prepared to fight a war, if it came to that?

Mind you, perhaps only the threat of war would make the Scandinavian polities back off. Vinland need not be a power, but merely enough of a nuisance to keep Iceland and Greenland from being the fight for the European thrones.

Norway did not, OTL, send an army to conquer Greenland or Iceland.

What Norway did do was fund chieftains in Iceland. Since Iceland did not have ship timber locally and few Icelanders imported and sailed their own ships by 13th century, Iceland depended on foreign ships for trade. Norway was in position to subsidize ships or threaten trade blockade. Other kings like Scotland or Denmark were not interested in sending ships to North Atlantic.

Insert a somewhat prosperous Vinland, and the equation changes. Timber, grain and iron can be imported from Vinland if Norway is not interested. Of course a lot of goods must be imported from Europe simply because Vinland is too small to produce them. But Vinland needs imports too. So Vinlanders build and sail ships to Europe - whether Norway, Scotland, Ireland or England - and on their return stop and trade in Iceland and Greenland.

Since Iceland is important as stopover point for Vinland, they are going to interfere in politics of Iceland (And anyway a lot of Vinlanders have family and allies in Iceland. Simply because Vinland will be and stay a major destination for Icelanders who get outlawed or involved in feuds).

[The Professor]

Is it actually possible for Vinland to be prosperous?
While I can see a surviving Vinland possible I can't see it becoming prosperous before contact with Europe is resumed.
Post contact can it expand quick enough not to be reabsorbed as a colony?

[chornedsnorkack]

Is it actually possible for Vinland to be prosperous?
While I can see a surviving Vinland possible I can't see it becoming prosperous before contact with Europe is resumed.
Post contact can it expand quick enough not to be reabsorbed as a colony?
Even in absence of any contact with Europe, Vinland has a bunch of technologies. European cool weather crops like rye, oats, barley, which can grow in cool climate where American maize cannot and local inhabitants are thus restricted to low population density hunter-gathering. Domesticated animals. Iron smelting, which provides an export to neighbouring Indians. Large sailing ships - even a knarr is going to be more efficient for long distance, large volume trade than small Indian boats, so the Vikings can take over existing Indian trade networks and undercut the transport costs.

On account of natural population growth alone, 15th or 16th century Vinland may be technologically backwards compared to Western Europe, just like Sweden, Novgorod or Muscovy were - but this does not mean they are easily reduced to a colony.

[Cash]

A subsistence farmer with his family, animals and seed supply is high-volume, low-value goods compared to some other trade goods. With expensive small knarrs, emigrants may take the trips like Norway-Iceland, or Iceland-Greenland, or Iceland-Vinland - but from Europe direct to Vinland, whether islandhopping or straight over empty ocean, gets too expensive even with 13th century population pressures. And that would hold until better and cheaper ships come along in 17th century.

Precisely why better and bigger ships would be developed earlier than OTL. As you mentioned in the other Vinland colony thread, "In OTL, Germans developed bigger, more efficient cogs in 12th, 13th century. If Vinland trade increases, they could not just take over the cog - it is a solution for a different task - but developing a bigger ship adapted to crossing empty North Atlantic may make sense."

Pre-Black Death Europe not only had population pressures, it had a plethora of younger sons of nobility who lacked the Crusades to draw them away and kill them off. Once news of this new land across the Atlantic spreads -- and it certainly will -- second sons will be lining up for ships that will take them to a land where they can create a new class of landed gentry. They will need larger ships to carry supplies and the settlers to create their new estates. (Happened in Colonial America, too, but could be more likely to succeed in an earlier time.)

There was a reason why 16th century Spaniards picked the populous Central and Southern America where they could conquer and exploit Indians, and ignored the less densely settled areas like North America. Only in 17th century did English start farming settlement.

Yup. Gold AND slaves.

A settlement of a few hundred Norse on a small patch of Newfoundland might be sustainable - yet keep growing over centuries because of natural increase, continuous trickle of immigrants from Greenland and Iceland, and interbreeding with Skraelings.

And the trade all the way to Europe would be limited to high value, low volume goods - including a few passengers.

As the settlement expands further south to warmer climates, the few immigrants who come from, say, Ireland or England or Germany may introduce warmer climate crops like wheat or vines (Leif had a German in his crew who knew vines). But they would still be few, and they would soon teach the use of wheat to their neighbouring Norse, and also Skraelings.


When the population of Vinland grows and the demand for low volume, high value trade to Europe increases, yes, it creates incentive for better ships.

[chornedsnorkack]

Precisely why better and bigger ships would be developed earlier than OTL. As you mentioned in the other Vinland colony thread, "In OTL, Germans developed bigger, more efficient cogs in 12th, 13th century. If Vinland trade increases, they could not just take over the cog - it is a solution for a different task - but developing a bigger ship adapted to crossing empty North Atlantic may make sense."

Pre-Black Death Europe not only had population pressures, it had a plethora of younger sons of nobility who lacked the Crusades to draw them away and kill them off. Once news of this new land across the Atlantic spreads -- and it certainly will -- second sons will be lining up for ships that will take them to a land where they can create a new class of landed gentry. They will need larger ships to carry supplies and the settlers to create their new estates. (Happened in Colonial America, too, but could be more likely to succeed in an earlier time.)

How easy will it be for West European noble immigrants to get accepted and succeed in Vinland?

There were not many who succeeded in OTL Iceland, or Finland, or Novgorod.

Merchants and artisans are another matter.

[Geekhis Khan]

What about Tobacco? I can't find when it made its way as far north as the Great lakes or even Virginia, but highly addictive recreational chemicals have a way of making money. Theoretically once the Norse eventually find the stuff (whenever the hell that might be) they could be convinced to try it and get hooked, trading iron for tobacco. Thoughts?

[foresterab]

Tobacco even today is basically limited in production to southern ontario.

One trade item that has not been talked about alot and was a major item as I understand was ivory.

Ivory from walrus and narwhal tusks were a major trade commodity until the Portugese started exploring Africa and importing elephant tusks in a big way. This was one of the major sources of collapse of their economy.

Other factors are the lack of re-vitaling locations. Greenlands was used until the iceage started to make crops there impractical....now your major waypoint before Iceland has to have all it's supplies imported which is a major logistical challange.

Lastly the fur trade was profitable but the success rates were extremely low. Despite what people think trying to trap furs prior the invention and spread of the steel trap was a very low success effort and most furs traded in the early years of Canada were byproducts of hunting rather than the organised fur brigades of the 1700's.

A successful Vineland colony...no matter how hazardous to reach however does provide a relief valve for the noble sons to go claim new lands just like the Crusades did. Unfortunately this would mean a trickle of people instead of the flood overtaking the middle east and may not be enough to prevent the crusades from happening.

[Troyer IV]

I did not read up to this point, so forgive me if I'm restating what has already been said.

1) Does the successful Vinland have constant or even halfway regular contact with the Old World?
2) How large is Vinland, in terms of size and population?
3) Are there any nations in Europe with the wealth, power, and stability to exploit the news of the New World?

If these answers are negative in any way, then there will be fewer butterflies. Indeed, it may well still be abandoned by any state, especially when considering that the bloodthirsty vikings have had such a bad time of it with the Skraelings. If the vikings can't cut it, who can? There's simply the question of whether any one monarch has the resources or opportunity to go further with it.

Of course, that doesn't mean that in time someone won't join in the fun.

[chornedsnorkack]

1) Does the successful Vinland have constant or even halfway regular contact with the Old World?
I expect it would. Greenland and Iceland did.

2) How large is Vinland, in terms of size and population?
My order of magnitude idea for population:
Iceland had about 30 000 people by 1100, and I expect by 930 it was over 10 000.
Iceland of 986 could send out a fleet of 1000 emigrants simultaneously. 560 arrived in Greenland. The sustainable population was 2000...3000

Now, for example Quebec French bred from 60 000 souls in 1759 to over 6 millions in 200 years, with little new immigration.

Vinland will not have as good conditions as 19th century Quebec (population growing 10 times per century) - let´s say population growing 4 times in century, 2 times in each 50 years, plus a steady trickle of immigrants from Iceland and Greenland adding 5000 more each 50 years. Starting, say, 2500 in 1050, then 10 000 in 1100, 25 000 in 1150, 55 000 in 1200 and 115 000 by 1250. However, guestimate a sustainable High Medieval population of Newfoundland at 100 000 - so about 13th century Newfoundland gets fully settled which slows down further immigration and population breeding - as well as speeds up settlement of Quebec and Maritimes, previously slow and scattered.
That is white, Norse population around Newfoundland, with only small admixture of Beothuk Metis.

In the meantime, mostly Metis (but Christian and partly Norse speaking) populations have grown up around Hochelaga and Aquidneck.

3) Are there any nations in Europe with the wealth, power, and stability to exploit the news of the New World?

No. Logistically, no one is in position to interfere.

If these answers are negative in any way, then there will be fewer butterflies. Indeed, it may well still be abandoned by any state, especially when considering that the bloodthirsty vikings have had such a bad time of it with the Skraelings. If the vikings can't cut it, who can? There's simply the question of whether any one monarch has the resources or opportunity to go further with it.

The first monarch to interfere would be that of Norway. But even OTL Iceland was too tough nut to crack before 13th century.

In the meantime, the chieftains of Iceland were slowly building up strength to make Iceland a state. No one quite succeeded before they were taken over by Norway in 13th century.

I expect making Vinland a state would go faster. Although possibly several states might be formed. And a King of Vinland might have interests in Europe.

[Cash]

How easy will it be for West European noble immigrants to get accepted and succeed in Vinland?

There were not many who succeeded in OTL Iceland, or Finland, or Novgorod.

But they don't have to settle in Vinland. One of the butterflies of this discovery of a new land is that there is much more to it than just Vinland. Once Europe realizes that there is a whole other continent -- or even just whopping large island -- across the Atlantic, they can start setting up colonies independent of Vinland. My point is, the Norse monopoly on North American colonization lasts perhaps a century, or two at the outside. Once the necessary improvements in ship technology spread, other countries and groups start showing up in areas with better climates and natural resources outside the Norse sphere of influence.

Merchants and artisans are another matter.

Agreed. If the Norse recruit specialists from elsewhere in Europe or allow outside merchants access to Vinland, then the rest of Europe gets in on the act that much sooner.

[chornedsnorkack]

But they don't have to settle in Vinland. One of the butterflies of this discovery of a new land is that there is much more to it than just Vinland. Once Europe realizes that there is a whole other continent -- or even just whopping large island -- across the Atlantic, they can start setting up colonies independent of Vinland. My point is, the Norse monopoly on North American colonization lasts perhaps a century, or two at the outside. Once the necessary improvements in ship technology spread, other countries and groups start showing up in areas with better climates and natural resources outside the Norse sphere of influence.


The improvements take their sweet time to be developed, and spread. And by the time they are in place, the Norse have a tenuous claim - trade partners and scattering of colonies - in place. Quite sparse Spanish and Portuguese settlement was able to deter all other settlers of Americas throughout 16th century, and much of the mainland later on as well.

Say, the 12th century Vinland Norse build bigger ships, which can sail straight east to Ireland by westerlies, and then return via Iceland and Greenland (taking on water).

Their trade partners in Ireland, and maybe England and Scotland, may learn to copy the ships. But what exactly is a Vinland cog good for? To visit Leifsbudir for trade in low volume, high value goods. At first, still too expensive for settlers.

[Cash]

The improvements take their sweet time to be developed, and spread. And by the time they are in place, the Norse have a tenuous claim - trade partners and scattering of colonies - in place. Quite sparse Spanish and Portuguese settlement was able to deter all other settlers of Americas throughout 16th century, and much of the mainland later on as well.

I agree that the improvements take time to spread, but I have to disagree on the "able to deter" point. England, Holland, and France concentrated their colonial development in North America well north of Spanish and Portugese territories. Spain wasn't interested in NA above Florida because it lacked the denser population (slaves) and precious metals of Mexico and SA. Northern European explorers (Britain, France, Dutch etc) were active throughout the 16th C. New entrants into NA in this timeline would logically look farther south beyond the Norse settlements.

Say, the 12th century Vinland Norse build bigger ships, which can sail straight east to Ireland by westerlies, and then return via Iceland and Greenland (taking on water).

Their trade partners in Ireland, and maybe England and Scotland, may learn to copy the ships. But what exactly is a Vinland cog good for? To visit Leifsbudir for trade in low volume, high value goods. At first, still too expensive for settlers.But far better for settlers than a knarr. A modified cog would serve as an intermediate step in the technological development that would lead to larger multi-masted ships for true Atlantic voyaging. Cogs first appeared in the 10th C. so it had a history of use that allows designers to build on it to meet the new requirements.

I'm not saying your hesitancy to accept non-Norse colonialism is completely wrong. One element that could delay other Europeans from exploiting the new lands is simple political development. Britain, France, Spain in the 12th and 13th C. were not in a position to underwrite trans-Atlantic explorations, if only because those political entities were barely half-formed. That's why I see non-Norse colonization as more an individual effort by second sons and entrepreneurial merchants than nation-state undertakings. But then that's the Norse pattern, too, so it's not completely ASB to see it happening in other cultures as well. I can readily see a claimant to the throne of some nation offering younger siblings/cousins a ship for NA exploration as an alternative to the garrote or civil war.

[Advernt]

[QUOTE=chornedsnorkack;4349665]I expect it would. Greenland and Iceland did.

My order of magnitude idea for population:
Iceland had about 30 000 people by 1100, and I expect by 930 it was over 10 000.
Iceland of 986 could send out a fleet of 1000 emigrants simultaneously. 560 arrived in Greenland. The sustainable population was 2000...3000

Now, for example Quebec French bred from 60 000 souls in 1759 to over 6 millions in 200 years, with little new immigration.

Vinland will not have as good conditions as 19th century Quebec (population growing 10 times per century) - let´s say population growing 4 times in century, 2 times in each 50 years, plus a steady trickle of immigrants from Iceland and Greenland adding 5000 more each 50 years. Starting, say, 2500 in 1050, then 10 000 in 1100, 25 000 in 1150, 55 000 in 1200 and 115 000 by 1250. However, guestimate a sustainable High Medieval population of Newfoundland at 100 000 - so about 13th century Newfoundland gets fully settled which slows down further immigration and population breeding - as well as speeds up settlement of Quebec and Maritimes, previously slow and scattered.
That is white, Norse population around Newfoundland, with only small admixture of Beothuk Metis.

QUOTE]

I doubt that immigration and population breeding would be slowed down by the full settlement of Newfoundland . If anything , once Newfoundland is fully settled , we could probably expect to see an explosion of population in new colonies along the Eastern Seaboard and Great Lakes , and I don't think it would end till Nordic settlement reaches the edge of the Great Plains . After all , historically , once the 13 Colonies in America were fully settled , the American population grew still faster , did it not ?

I believe it took only 150 years for British settlement in North America to go from next to nothing , to 2 million by the 7 Years War. If anything , once Nordic Newfoundland is fully settled , I expect Nordic colonist to overwhelm and flood Old World Exchange ravaged Native populations . And if Nordic ships explore all the way up to Mexico by the mid 14th Century , as it is very plausible , I do not thing any European Nation would be in a position to beat the Vinlanders to Mexico , and probably even Peru.

I expect Nordic adventurers to overthrow Meso American states , and if adventurers can get down to the Andes before the rise of Cuzco in the early 15th Century , I expect that the Andes would be filled with an Empire governed by the descendants of Nordic Consquistarods by the 16th Century . I seriously doubt any European state would be in a viable position to encroach on America before 1450 at least , and even then , I suspect their colonies would be at the mercy of Nordic settlements nearby , or Metis allies of the Nordics.

We probably wouldn't see the Great Empire of Vinland , stretching from the Artic to Tierra Del Fuego , but I suspect that a Scandanavian descended language would be the most prominent language in the Americas , at least.

[Elfwine]

I doubt that immigration and population breeding would be slowed down by the full settlement of Newfoundland . If anything , once Newfoundland is fully settled , we could probably expect to see an explosion of population in new colonies along the Eastern Seaboard and Great Lakes , and I don't think it would end till Nordic settlement reaches the edge of the Great Plains . After all , historically , once the 13 Colonies in America were fully settled , the American population grew still faster , did it not ?

In a very different situation.


I believe it took only 150 years for British settlement in North America to go from next to nothing , to 2 million by the 7 Years War. If anything , once Nordic Newfoundland is fully settled , I expect Nordic colonist to overwhelm and flood Old World Exchange ravaged Native populations . And if Nordic ships explore all the way up to Mexico by the mid 14th Century , as it is very plausible , I do not thing any European Nation would be in a position to beat the Vinlanders to Mexico , and probably even Peru.
Where are all those colonists coming from?


I expect Nordic adventurers to overthrow Meso American states , and if adventurers can get down to the Andes before the rise of Cuzco in the early 15th Century , I expect that the Andes would be filled with an Empire governed by the descendants of Nordic Consquistarods by the 16th Century . I seriously doubt any European state would be in a viable position to encroach on America before 1450 at least , and even then , I suspect their colonies would be at the mercy of Nordic settlements nearby , or Metis allies of the Nordics.

We probably wouldn't see the Great Empire of Vinland , stretching from the Artic to Tierra Del Fuego , but I suspect that a Scandanavian descended language would be the most prominent language in the Americas , at least.Not unless there is massive Norse immigration to the New World, for starters. Not to mention that the Meso-American states vs. the Vinlanders is a much more even fight than vs. Cortez and his ilk.

[chornedsnorkack]

I agree that the improvements take time to spread, but I have to disagree on the "able to deter" point. England, Holland, and France concentrated their colonial development in North America well north of Spanish and Portugese territories.
France attempted 16th century colonies both in Florida and in Brazil. They were wiped out by Spaniards and Portuguese respectively.

Cartier explored St. Lawrence 1534...1542, but French did not settle till 1609 or so.
Spain wasn't interested in NA above Florida because it lacked the denser population (slaves) and precious metals of Mexico and SA. Northern European explorers (Britain, France, Dutch etc) were active throughout the 16th C.
But no settlements before 1607 (plus the failed Roanoke colony of 1585)

But far better for settlers than a knarr. A modified cog would serve as an intermediate step in the technological development that would lead to larger multi-masted ships for true Atlantic voyaging. Cogs first appeared in the 10th C. so it had a history of use that allows designers to build on it to meet the new requirements.

But still not as good as OTL 16th century ships, not in 12th...13th century.

Also no volta do mar yet. Since the known sailing route for Norse goes west at high latitudes (not low latitude trades), knowing the shores of Iceland and Greenland, cold climate sailing and having connections in Iceland favouring use as waystation are at a premium. And the ships sail past Newfoundland before hugging the coast southwards.

I'm not saying your hesitancy to accept non-Norse colonialism is completely wrong. One element that could delay other Europeans from exploiting the new lands is simple political development. Britain, France, Spain in the 12th and 13th C. were not in a position to underwrite trans-Atlantic explorations, if only because those political entities were barely half-formed. That's why I see non-Norse colonization as more an individual effort by second sons and entrepreneurial merchants than nation-state undertakings. But then that's the Norse pattern, too, so it's not completely ASB to see it happening in other cultures as well. I can readily see a claimant to the throne of some nation offering younger siblings/cousins a ship for NA exploration as an alternative to the garrote or civil war.

That would be mostly the claimants to the throne who already have connections to Vinland, and who are not proposing to actually explore.

Entrepreneurial merchants? OTL, the Hanse Germans successfully settled in Bergen, in Stockholm alongside Swedish burghers... not sure what the proportions of German, Swedish and Finnish burghers were in Turku or Viipuri. Hansa ships sailed to Iceland, too, but Iceland had no favourable place for towns.

Iceland was a refugee for outlaws from Norway (up to the time of Erik the Red´s father). Outlaws from Iceland travelled to Norway, and some went as far as Constantinople.

Vinland is going to have a steady trickle of well-connected fugitives from Iceland throughout 11th and 12th century, because of the established connections and availability of land for settlements.

12th century Iceland wasn´t taking many refugees from Norway (not much free land). Assuming that 12th century civil wars in Norway go ahead as scheduled (butterflies would not causally prevent that), Vinland would be taking some (OTL, they went to Sweden, Denmark, Faroes...).

For the point of view of 12th century Vinland sailor wanting to trade anywhere in Europe, Norway is far away and on the wrong side of British Isles. Sailing on west winds straight east of Leifsbudir, the next landfall would be Iceland (nice mountains of Kerry). And they will find Gaelo-Norse in Limerick, Cork, Dublin, perhaps Galway?, and turning north to return via Iceland, they pass the also Gaelo-Norse Hebrides.

If they establish trade relationships, will they be taking merchants as passengers? Farmers (who have the experience with warmer climate crops like wheat)? Nobles?