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NomadicSky
August 3rd, 2005, 04:56 AM
Standing at the front of a sparse classroom, the bearded professor looked out over the mixed group of students before him.
"Good morning, Students...", he croaked out in a voice too badly worn by too many hours of lecturing to too many young people with too few teachers to assist.
"Close your books. We are going to discuss yesterday's assignment...If you read what I assigned, you know we have a classic tale of self-indulgence...sad but not uncommon in world history.

Untill World War II, the United States had been little more than Victoria's lap dog, wandering aimlessly about the royal complex ever since her mistress had passed on. She had potential to be sure but she had neither the ability nor the desire to take a prominent position in the world. Her people lacked a strong self-image, too many Americans were still licking their wounds from the last great overseas debacle and from the years of deprivation and social chaos that had followed shortly thereafter.

It all changed that day in 1938 when Europe fell into another one of it's regular spasms of self hatred. As a result of the industrial and psychological adjustments required by American participation in that conflict, the United States not only showed herself to be a major player on the world stage, but even pre-empted her foster mother, England as the premier world power.
What followed was 60 years of unparalleled prosperity and cultural prominence.

That all came an abrupt end in September of 2009 when the Chinese finally allowed the Yuan to float on the world money markets.

Americans were a consumption mad people. They had arrived at the idea that the recycling of basic raw materials was of far greater economic value than the recycling of owners for their durable goods; cars, microwave ovens, TVs and the like. By the year 2000, almost everthing in America was made disposable; from telephones to clothes to cameras even major medical devices. they also created a nanreusable packaging materials in one year than the rest of the world had in recorded history. American soda cans and plastic shopping bags, those not mistaken for edibles by the denizens of the deep, came to litter the floors of all of Earth's oceans.

Americans also mistook their continusly growing domestic market to be the result of a kind of naive pride they called, "good old American know-how", and managed to completely overlook the expansion of sales and services resulting naturally from 250 years of unabated immigration.

During the late 20th century, inflation, high taxes and social instability in the United States, caused many of their most successful corporations to look for operational centers outside of the country. Asia and Latin America were the main beneficiaries of that exodus. Those giants of the business world who did remain within their parent nation adopted a policy of farming out their staples manufacturing to factories in those other parts of the world where production was high and wages were not. It made for a much better bottom line in their Profit and Loss statements and the stockholders all seemed to approve so long as the dividend checks were mailed on time.

By the year, 2007, it had become apparent that China, more than any other nation, had managed to make itself what the United States had been in the 1950s; the worlds primary supplier of diverse, inexpensive, and excellent quality consumer goods.

China was also a totalitarian state. Unlike the Western democracies and especially the United States, China had the ability to wield its economy as an effective sword of state. Consequently, from the mid 1990s untill 2007, China managed to grad the lion's share of the worlds consumer markets. It's biggest customer was the United States.

Several of the highly industrialized states, including the United States, began to chafe under the load of inexpensive goods they found themselves carrying in order to keep their economies rolling. It was clear that the reason Chinese goods had defield global pricing pressures for so long had a direct link to their control of the value of the Yuan. Unlike the other major world currencies, the Yuan was not allowed to find its parity with other world currencies.

By 2007, 2 out of every 5 consumer products sold in the United States, bearing American brand names, came from China.

Finally, in September of 2009, amid screams of, "unfair", "boycott", and "tariffs", from all over the world, China relented and gave its currency over to the caprice of the world money market.

Overnight the price of everything bearing the "made in China" stamp on it doubled in price. Everyday items like their popular tool sets went from $12.95 to $24.95. Automotive parts used by American manufacturers around the world raised the price of autos by an immediate 10%. Household appliances, radios, televisions and computers tripled in price as a result of the cheaper dollar and the drop in demand forced by the inevitable price jumps. A kitchen stove that had cost $350.00 was 1,100.00 in November. The American economy took a hit like it had not experienced in it's entire history.

Tens of thousands of borderline businesses those who had failed to hold onto their profits, closed their doors within six months. Massive unemployment followed. The economy declined further and even those businesses that had fully understood the meaning of profit were losing some from among themselves. Even major corporations proved not to be immune.

For the first time in 80 years, soup kitchens sprang up all over America. The poor and the destitute flooded the benevolence of those cities that had the means to help to the point that they no longer could offer so much as compassion. the homeless and starving vagrants, just bereft of their worldly goods, mostly by banks desperately trying to remain afloat, rioted in the streets when welfare services were finally withdrawn.

The great American fliration with what it had called Multi-culturalism floundered and finally fell in hail of gunfire that erupted at virtually every ethnic seam in the country.The bloodbath that followed on the heels of the disintegration of social order in the country continued for almost 20 years. It is estimated by conservative sources that 60% of the American endemic population died of starvation or violence during that time period.

As a result of the American insanity that reigned in the streets for that period of 20 years that we now call the Expulsion, and the absence of local control that resulted, the states of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and California are now part of the Mexican Republic. Our very own Free State of Colorado is now unaligned and 21 northern and northwestern states petitioned Canada for incorporation. Finally in 2021 the New England states formed the Union of New England, followed by the Federation of American States formed in 2022.

While stability has now returned to North America and law and order once more prevail, things are no longer as they were at the end of the 20th century. China, thinking it could survive an American collapse, had made no provision for the dramatic loss of demand for its products. What occurred there and in Europe pretty much mirrored what took place on this continent.

OK, And comments or questions?"

One young man raised his hand for recognition.

"Mr. Fulton, isn't it?"

"Yes, sir...I was wondering if we could all have a break now," "I need to feed my horse and then my dad me I have to come home to help with the shocking. We're cutting wheat today."

"Sure," the dismayed professor responded. How was he expected to teach these children anything when they didn't even attend school regularly, he mused. "It's late,...it's almost noon... let's call it a day for today and I will see those of you tomorrow, who can make it in. You're excused."

AH Patriot
August 3rd, 2005, 05:52 AM
You paint a veary unsettling vision of the future. I hope your wrong.

Tacitus
August 3rd, 2005, 06:17 AM
Wow...very scary but also realistic. After reading this I did wonder about something, a factor that youu have not mentioned: the US millitary. Many of our troops are stationed abroad at the moment but should such a huge economic disaster followed by withspread racial violence, rioting and outright racial warfare I think the American President would immediately call home American troops stationed in Europe and elsewhere. If it got too out of hand I think martial law may even be declared for a short period until the violence subsided. While 60% of the population could get killed off in the resulting violence I think it would be a lot less if the millitary quickly established order in the homeland.

lasvegan2005
August 3rd, 2005, 07:37 AM
Overnight the price of everything bearing the "made in China" stamp on it doubled in price. Everyday items like their popular tool sets went from $12.95 to $24.95. Automotive parts used by American manufacturers around the world raised the price of autos by an immediate 10%. Household appliances, radios, televisions and computers tripled in price as a result of the cheaper dollar and the drop in demand forced by the inevitable price jumps. A kitchen stove that had cost $350.00 was 1,100.00 in November. The American economy took a hit like it had not experienced in it's entire history.

Very well done. But the problem with this is that the doomsday scenario is economically inaccurate. If there was a massive wave of inflation -- an inflationary tsunami, so to speak -- resulting from a sudden increase in the prices of consumer goods and industrial parts/supplies made in China, it wouldn't immediately manifest itself in a Great Depression-like scenario. Depressions are characterized by hyperdeflation. On the contrary the first characteristic of your scenario would be hyperinflation like Argentina and Israel experienced in the 1970s. Many nations have survived that type of shock intact.

Very interesting, and well written, otherwise.

Darkest
August 3rd, 2005, 08:38 AM
Very nice, I like your style. I'd like to know what happened to countries other than the US and China. Does the European Union keep its power? Does Africa dissolve into a huge war after foreign aid disappears? How about the Middle East, Russia, Australia, Japan...

Ah, but that's okay. It was a good story, it had a great flow to it, so thank you for what you gave us.

wkwillis
August 3rd, 2005, 08:55 AM
If the dollar collapsed today, tomorrow the low paid people's salaries would double after inflation. It is the retired people who would suffer.

jolo
August 3rd, 2005, 02:04 PM
Untill World War II, the United States had been little more than Victoria's lap dog, wandering aimlessly about the royal complex ever since her mistress had passed on. She had potential to be sure but she had neither the ability nor the desire to take a prominent position in the world. Her people lacked a strong self-image, too many Americans were still licking their wounds from the last great overseas debacle and from the years of deprivation and social chaos that had followed shortly thereafter.


I'd see the US as among the top world powers since about 1900. And pretty conscious about it. There was just an anti-imperialist sentiment, partly resulting from trying to be different from the former ruling empire. But that wasn't as strong as one might think, if you look at the Phillippines for instance.


That all came an abrupt end in September of 2009 when the Chinese finally allowed the Yuan to float on the world money markets.


The US wants the Yuan to float freely. Partly because making Chinese products more expensive will boost the local economy.


Americans were a consumption mad people. They had arrived at the idea that the recycling of basic raw materials was of far greater economic value than the recycling of owners for their durable goods; cars, microwave ovens, TVs and the like. By the year 2000, almost everthing in America was made disposable; from telephones to clothes to cameras even major medical devices. they also created a nanreusable packaging materials in one year than the rest of the world had in recorded history. American soda cans and plastic shopping bags, those not mistaken for edibles by the denizens of the deep, came to litter the floors of all of Earth's oceans.


I wouldn't be so sure about that: Cars today often last 10 years without a major repair, if they're treated well. 40 years ago, people were lucky if they had the first three years without a major repair. Computers are made to last 10 years without maintenance (only CD-drives and the likes usually break down earlier). The first computers needed constant maintenance. Anyone can choose freely between cheap more or less disposable phones and quality phones - whereby even the cheap phones can usually be used for a pretty long time. Also, while you find a lot of old equipment today which has lasted really long, you should also realize that much more equipment of the same age didn't make it. Big iron stoves broke down as often as microwaves today. But they used up much more ressources. While it is possible to build products at a much higher quality - what's the use if most people want a better version a few years later? What's the use if the higher quality means it uses up ten times as much ressources for production, transport, repairs, cleaning and so on, while it will not even last ten times as long in average? And so on.


Americans also mistook their continusly growing domestic market to be the result of a kind of naive pride they called, "good old American know-how", and managed to completely overlook the expansion of sales and services resulting naturally from 250 years of unabated immigration.


I wouldn't underestimate American know-how so much. The US has most of the worlds best scientists, some of the worlds most successfull inventors and
entrepreneurs, and so on - nearly all of them from immigration if you start counting at the time before the first Europeans arrived.


During the late 20th century, inflation, high taxes and social instability in the United States, caused many of their most successful corporations to look for operational centers outside of the country. Asia and Latin America were the main beneficiaries of that exodus.


Except of the taxes, probably every point you made is more of a problem in most of the beneficiary countries than in the US. And even taxes aren't so different - in some Asian countries they are even higher than in the US afaik.


Those giants of the business world who did remain within their parent nation adopted a policy of farming out their staples manufacturing to factories in those other parts of the world where production was high and wages were not. It made for a much better bottom line in their Profit and Loss statements and the stockholders all seemed to approve so long as the dividend checks were mailed on time.


Which means rising wages and standards in those countries and more potential to concentrate on new markets at home. Both is good for everyone in the long term, though a few people who are jobless for a while will not like it. The Americans are pretty good in keeping such problems within acceptable limits though - unlike some European countries.


China was also a totalitarian state. Unlike the Western democracies and especially the United States, China had the ability to wield its economy as an effective sword of state. Consequently, from the mid 1990s untill 2007, China managed to grad the lion's share of the worlds consumer markets. It's biggest customer was the United States.


I can't see any connection between successful economies and totalitarianism - democracies in average appear to fare better.


Several of the highly industrialized states, including the United States, began to chafe under the load of inexpensive goods they found themselves carrying in order to keep their economies rolling. It was clear that the reason Chinese goods had defield global pricing pressures for so long had a direct link to their control of the value of the Yuan. Unlike the other major world currencies, the Yuan was not allowed to find its parity with other world currencies.


In the long term, the US won't import more goods than they can afford. If everything fails, they'll just increase import tariffs - that would have the same effect as a higher yuan, but the US would get all the tax revenue, which would (could) mean lower taxes for companies at home, who are therefore more competitive.


By 2007, 2 out of every 5 consumer products sold in the United States, bearing American brand names, came from China.


Think about it: China does all the work, and all it gets in return are some green pieces of paper which loose more and more in value. Then you'll understand why the US can still afford their economic policies. If it some day fails (as is likely), the US will just go back to producing some of those goods themselves and there is no serious change, just some good and easy times in between. But the most likely outcome in the longterm is simply a more balanced import/export ratio and just slight interruptions inbetween.


Overnight the price of everything bearing the "made in China" stamp on it doubled in price. Everyday items like their popular tool sets went from $12.95 to $24.95. Automotive parts used by American manufacturers around the world raised the price of autos by an immediate 10%. Household appliances, radios, televisions and computers tripled in price as a result of the cheaper dollar and the drop in demand forced by the inevitable price jumps. A kitchen stove that had cost $350.00 was 1,100.00 in November. The American economy took a hit like it had not experienced in it's entire history.


Sorry, but that sounds like a boom for the local economy: Suddenly, the local companies and some companies newly founded at the opportunity can make really big profits. Also, the Chinese will invest heavily in the US to avoid loosing too much market share. All great.


Tens of thousands of borderline businesses those who had failed to hold onto their profits, closed their doors within six months. Massive unemployment followed. The economy declined further and even those businesses that had fully understood the meaning of profit were losing some from among themselves. Even major corporations proved not to be immune.


Some loose, some win - but as importing goods doesn't create that many jobs, there is no problem. More jobs will be created at about the same time.


For the first time in 80 years, soup kitchens sprang up all over America. The poor and the destitute flooded the benevolence of those cities that had the means to help to the point that they no longer could offer so much as compassion. the homeless and starving vagrants, just bereft of their worldly goods, mostly by banks desperately trying to remain afloat, rioted in the streets when welfare services were finally withdrawn.


Extremely unlikely scenario - except that when I was in America, I saw quite a lot welfare activity already.


The great American fliration with what it had called Multi-culturalism floundered and finally fell in hail of gunfire that erupted at virtually every ethnic seam in the country.The bloodbath that followed on the heels of the disintegration of social order in the country continued for almost 20 years. It is estimated by conservative sources that 60% of the American endemic population died of starvation or violence during that time period.


As food production should not be affected, starvation probably wouldn't happen - at least in a country exporting food like the US. Also, the US wouldn't be quite as successfull with no immigrants or just European immigrants. Most Americans I got to know are conscious about that. I also find it difficult to imagine wide spread ethnic fighting in the US - even in very bad times, the Americans imo are more of individuals seeing people of their own kind as much as competitors as people with different looks. There are areas with a lot of racist sentiment, but even there the people usually act pretty civilised, even under economic pressure.


As a result of the American insanity that reigned in the streets for that period of 20 years that we now call the Expulsion, and the absence of local control that resulted, the states of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and California are now part of the Mexican Republic. Our very own Free State of Colorado is now unaligned and 21 northern and northwestern states petitioned Canada for incorporation. Finally in 2021 the New England states formed the Union of New England, followed by the Federation of American States formed in 2022.


Even if rather big turmoil were to happen, it'd probably not lead to such an outcome - the most likely scenario would be civil war until one side wins, without too much foreign intervention. Even the Mexicans in the US wouldn't necessarily want Mexico to incorporate the South-West, as that would likely mean the same problems after some time that made them leave in the first place.


While stability has now returned to North America and law and order once more prevail, things are no longer as they were at the end of the 20th century. China, thinking it could survive an American collapse, had made no provision for the dramatic loss of demand for its products. What occurred there and in Europe pretty much mirrored what took place on this continent.


Actually, I consider it not impossible (though difficult) to reduce the export dependency of a country, even if it needs to be done quickly. There are a lot of goods, which will drop in price until the locals can afford them. Some companies will close and their staff will look for other jobs. Others will survive and help create a stronger local market and revive trade. The only necessary measure is to make the job market adapt more quickly to demand, so that joblessness is kept low (even if that means dropping wages until any person with some money can among others afford an own mechanic to keep all of his or her gimmicks, cars, and so on running). After that, the economy should stabilize quickly and the wages should rise again.

chrispi
August 3rd, 2005, 04:53 PM
Just askin'. :p

Glen
August 3rd, 2005, 06:01 PM
I more or less agree with jolo.

Your writing style and storytelling is excellent. Your premise, however, I don't believe would occur.

luakel
August 3rd, 2005, 06:37 PM
Nice Ideas, NS, but I think I'm going to have to agree with jojo. The US economy would likely do better, not worse, if what you propose would come to pass.

carlton_bach
August 3rd, 2005, 07:36 PM
While I, too, don't think a massive depreciation of the dollar would bring the US economy to its knees, let alone to disaster and disintegration, I'm not quite as sanguine about the future. Almost any economic development can be dealt with by marlet mechanisms and proper policy IF it is anticipated and happens gradually. If, for some reason, the dollar happened to lose value precipitously the consequencews for the entire world economy could be dire. Japan, China and Europe lose a valuable export market, OPEC finds its earnings slashed and either raises prices or re-denominates oil in yen or euro. Neither is a good option because the former would create resentmnent in the developing world and heat up dollar inflation while the latter would put the thumbscrews on a nuclear superpower. IOW, conflict potential in a plenty superheated region, with the prospect of costly wars at a time of empty coffers and precious little love to be expected from allies and rivals.

I don't care who's president at the time. You can start calling him 'Jimmy'.

Straha
August 3rd, 2005, 07:41 PM
The real effect of this scenario would be the US turning inwards and not turning outwards ever again. This depression would probably last as long as the first one did. After things get back to normal the US would be a regional power focused in North America.

luakel
August 3rd, 2005, 07:56 PM
The real effect of this scenario would be the US turning inwards and not turning outwards ever again. This depression would probably last as long as the first one did. After things get back to normal the US would be a regional power focused in North America.
And probably the Pacific and South America as well.

Straha
August 3rd, 2005, 08:04 PM
Probably not so much in either of those areas. Japan replaces the US in the pacific and brazil risesg...

luakel
August 3rd, 2005, 08:07 PM
Probably not so much in either of those areas. Japan replaces the US in the pacific and brazil risesg...
I think the US would still stay involved in the Eastern and Southern Pacific at least.

Straha
August 3rd, 2005, 08:10 PM
I think the US would still stay involved in the Eastern and Southern Pacific at least.
I'm not disputing that at all. I'm just saying that the US would no longer have a leading role.

Glen
August 3rd, 2005, 08:11 PM
The real effect of this scenario would be the US turning inwards and not turning outwards ever again. This depression would probably last as long as the first one did. After things get back to normal the US would be a regional power focused in North America.

I don't think so.

Here's the thing, most of the world economy is now so interwoven with the US economy, that without a lot of long term change, anything that hurts the US economy THAT much would hurt the world nearly the same. Some places do better, some worse, but overall everyone shares the hurt.

So, maybe the US turns somewhat inward for a time. But they aren't going to ignore things in the Western Hemisphere for one. Quite frankly, I doubt they can disentangle themselves from Western Europe either. Japan is at this point intimately connected to the US both in terms of economy and defense. Maybe there are some changes in the relationships between the USA and the major economies of the World, but not isolation. That ship sailed a long, long time ago, and it would take something utterly devastating (and I mean more than a depression) or a long, long time for isolation to return as an option.

Straha
August 3rd, 2005, 08:15 PM
True but if the US did remain involved it would do so as a great power not a global hegenemon.

Wendell
August 4th, 2005, 04:54 AM
I more or less agree with jolo.

Your writing style and storytelling is excellent. Your premise, however, I don't believe would occur.
I have to agree as well. The story is riddled with inconsistencies.

Ivan Druzhkov
August 5th, 2005, 06:11 PM
Personally, I think that the US could easily be dethroned as a superpower, it would take quite a bit of effort to break it down completely. For me, the most likely scenario is that the United States turns into a giant France with fewer socialists.

Superdude
August 5th, 2005, 06:24 PM
The fact that the USA is so big, with such a huge population, and a relatively homogenous population means that the USA will remain a big power, unlike France which really has little power but political.

basileus
August 5th, 2005, 06:31 PM
Personally, I think that the US could easily be dethroned as a superpower, it would take quite a bit of effort to break it down completely. For me, the most likely scenario is that the United States turns into a giant France with fewer socialists.

They'll never renounce the "throne". Rather, their leaders (if they will still be like those of today) will unleash the Armageddon. Barring ASBs, a breakdown of the US is possible for purely internal reasons only, in my view.

Glen
August 5th, 2005, 08:57 PM
Personally, I think that the US could easily be dethroned as a superpower, it would take quite a bit of effort to break it down completely. For me, the most likely scenario is that the United States turns into a giant France with fewer socialists.


I do not think it would be easy. It would be hard. It would likely take a century or more. At least, to do so without in the process throwing the world into another dark ages.

This is not hubris, this is my opinion based on the numbers (I could be wrong, of course).

The USA has the largest economy, between 1/5th and 1/4th of the entire World Economy.

It has the World's third largest population, and is still growing. In the year 2050, it is projected to STILL have the third largest population in the world.

And it has one of the highest per capita income levels in the world.

It has the fourth largest nation by area in the world.

It is one of the largest food producing, and more importantly, food exporting, nations in the world.

It has the most powerful military in the world.

It has a large nuclear stockpile that we can deliver anywhere in the world.

It is a fully developed, post-industrial information age nation.


Okay, someday someone else might be number one depending how you wish to count such things.

And some century, we may have fallen so far behind or been weakened by multiple bad decisions and/or situations that we have fallen behind.

But it is not likely to happen in less than a century.

We have a long way to fall, no matter what people might think.