Indonesian Invades Australia

[PJ Norris]

What if either in recent history or today, Indonesia invaded Australia? The largest, most populated Islamic nation in the world, which dwarfs Australia's several times, is often viewed by us Aussies as the most likely future enemy. Several disagreements between Australia and Indonesia have never created a level of harmony we often wish, especially when Sth-East Asian Muslims asked Australia to 'give' Indonesia the Northern Territory (!).
It is easy to create a scenario wherby these radically different nations stand on a crises point but what if Australia was invaded? Aussie comments are welcome.

[Othniel]

Well Australlia is easily defendable and Indonesia's weather isn't exactly the best. An invasion of North Australlia would give Australlia pleanty of time to prepare a counter attack.

[DMA]

Well you'll need to completely change the Indonesian Order of Battle. Their navy is a joke &, although they have a lot of amphib vessels, getting them to the Australian shoreline will be a tough task as their combat vessels are no better than an old Leander Class FF.

Similarly their air force is a joke. At best they have about 12 F-16s, all of which are old.

Their army has no heavy armour, and that which they do have is light & old.

So the Indonesians somehow must get their invasion army to Australia in the first place. Our naval ships, the Adeliade class FFGs & Anzac class FFs are superior to anything Inodnesian & aren't overly outnumbered.

Then again the RAN has always has a good submarine branch, superior in both personnel & equipment to the Indonesians. The Indonesians have three old subs.

The RAAF has vastly superior aircraft in the F/A 18 & the venerable F-111.

Whilst the Australian army maybe stretched, even our old Leopoard MBTs could decimate any armoured engagement. And we have superior artillery & lots of it. Only in army personnel, numbers wise, are we at a disadvantage.

So here's a possible scenario, if we're talking large scale engagements. It's 1999 & Australian & Indonesian relations have soured over East Timor & are at an all time low. After some incident, Indonesia declares hostilities towards Australia. A few minutes later, 20 Indonesian fighters (10 A-4s & 10 F-5s) attack Darwin airport & the naval base. Little damage to done to the naval base, but a Qantas passenger jet is destroyed killing over 100 civilians.

Australia declares war (well maybe not war, but certainly hostilities) & goes onto full alert. Everyone/thing is called up.

The Indonesians send a large invasion force to take Darwin. Australia is alerted of this invasion force, through satellite & naval recon, & immedately orders an attack. The first to heed the call is an RAN submarine patrolling the Timor Sea. It attacks sinking an Indonesian FF & one of the amphib ships. Indonesian anti-sub operations drive off the Australian sub, but it escapes destruction. Furthermore, it manages to report the exact location of the Indonesian convoy.

The Indonesians, concerned about an Australia counter-attack, begin to patrol the airspace with a F-16 CAP. They are reinforced with F-5s. Just as well as Australia's next move is to dominate the airspace. An entire squadron, thus, of RAAF F/A-18s attack the Indonesian F-16s & F-5s. After a nasty air battle, Australia finally controls the air, although they lose 2 aircraft to the 16 Indonesian aircraft.

But that's just the beginning. Australia launches 20 F-111 armed with six harpoons each. After getting a fix on the Indonesian convoy, they fire their salvo of 120 Harpoons at the Indonesian ships. Although some malfunction, & some others miss their targets, 90 of the Harpoons hit. All but one of the Indonesian FFs are hit & sunk, whilst only five of the amphib ships survive.

If the Indonesians thought it was over, they were wrong. In the final part of the Australian attack, HMAS Canberra, HMAS Adelaide, & HMAS Anzac (all of which were in Darwin at the time of the Indonesian air raid) now enter the fray. Having been given targeting data from the RAAF, along with similar data coming from their own helos, the Canberra & Adelaide fire four Harpoons each. The last Indonesian FF is sunk along with two more amphib ships. The surviving three Indonesian amphib ships surrender to the RAN task force which had quickly caught up with them.

The 'war' ends when the USA finally acknowledges it's treaty committments to Australia via ANZUS & tells the Indonesians to surrender or face the military might of the USA.

[Wendell]

It might not be an easy war for even the full might of the ANZUS Pact to win.

[DMA]

It might not be an easy war for even the full might of the ANZUS Pact to win.


Depends how the war continues. Certainly the Indonesian navy & airforce is destroyed early on. As a result, the indonesian army is left stuck on whatever island they are currently on.

More importantly, from the Indonesian side, all the little civil wars going on will errupt into one huge rebellion. So most of Kalimantan, Sumartra, Timor, West New Guinea, & many other small islands like Ambon, will be in rebellion. Only somewhere like Java will the Indonesian govt be in control. If anything, the ANZUS allies could sit back & watch Indonesia fall apart, then move in afterwards as peace keepers, leaving Java isolated unto itself.

[Wendell]

Depends how the war continues. Certainly the Indonesian navy & airforce is destroyed early on. As a result, the indonesian army is left stuck on whatever island they are currently on.

More importantly, from the Indonesian side, all the little civil wars going on will errupt into one huge rebellion. So most of Kalimantan, Sumartra, Timor, West New Guinea, & many other small islands like Ambon, will be in rebellion. Only somewhere like Java will the Indonesian govt be in control. If anything, the ANZUS allies could sit back & watch Indonesia fall apart, then move in afterwards as peace keepers, leaving Java isolated unto itself.
But, would the Anglophone support of the breakaway provinces last, even if an agreement is reached with Jakarta?

[DMA]

But, would the Anglophone support of the breakaway provinces last, even if an agreement is reached with Jakarta?


It'll be too late by then. These breakaway regions will declare independence & that'll be the end of Indonesia. In many respects it'll be like how the USSR or Yugoslavia broke up. Afterall, Indonesia is really only a modern day Javanese Empire.

[Wendell]

It'll be too late by then. These breakaway regions will declare independence & that'll be the end of Indonesia. In many respects it'll be like how the USSR or Yugoslavia broke up. Afterall, Indonesia is really only a modern day Javanese Empire.
That's true. And, as you pointed out, the Indonesian air force and navy would have been obliterated. Now, would Irian Jaya seek an eventual union with Papua-New Guinea?

[DMA]

That's true. And, as you pointed out, the Indonesian air force and navy would have been obliterated. Now, would Irian Jaya seek an eventual union with Papua-New Guinea?


Now that's a tough one. Eventually I'd doubt it, though, as PNG has enough internal troubles of its own. So Irian Jaya maybe reminded of its recent past with Indonesia & decide it's better to remain independent.

[Wendell]

Now that's a tough one. Eventually I'd doubt it, though, as PNG has enough internal troubles of its own. So Irian Jaya maybe reminded of its recent past with Indonesia & decide it's better to remain independent.
True. Or could their Papuan bonds strenghten both parts. Actually, you're probably right. Now, WI Malaysia gets in on this war?

[DMA]

True. Or could their Papuan bonds strenghten both parts. Actually, you're probably right. Now, WI Malaysia gets in on this war?


There's a chance that the whole island of New Guinea could one day be united, but I doubt it. You never know though.

Well I'd hope Malaysia keeps out of it, although they were not overly friendly towards Australia around this time. Having said that, I'd completely doubt that they'd want to go to war against us, especially if the USA had sided with Australia militarily. Anyway, as it was in the OTL, the Malaysians actually helped us out, in the peacekeeping missions in East Timor in 1999-2000, much to the annoyance of Indonesia. They are also, like Indonesia, a member of ASEAN, so if Malaysia attacked Indonesia they'd be in violation of the non-agression treaty that comes with ASEAN membership.

[Wendell]

There's a chance that the whole island of New Guinea could one day be united, but I doubt it. You never know though.

Well I'd hope Malaysia keeps out of it, although they were not overly friendly towards Australia around this time. Having said that, I'd completely doubt that they'd want to go to war against us, especially if the USA had sided with Australia militarily. Anyway, as it was in the OTL, the Malaysians actually helped us out, in the peacekeeping missions in East Timor in 1999-2000, much to the annoyance of Indonesia. They are also, like Indonesia, a member of ASEAN, so if Malaysia attacked Indonesia they'd be in violation of the non-agression treaty that comes with ASEAN membership.
I knew that they were both ASEAN members, but I had wondered about possible Malay entry into the war on either side. Granted, it's not likely that such a thing would happen.

[DMA]

I knew that they were both ASEAN members, but I had wondered about possible Malay entry into the war on either side. Granted, it's not likely that such a thing would happen.


I can't see how they could. Indonesia attacks first, so out goes any obligation for Malaysia to help Indonesia. And by the time Indonesia needs help, the USA has entered the hostilities against Indonesia.

Furthermore, although Indonesia & Malaysia may both be Islamic, they are far from friendly. They are in competition with each other for everything, not to mention there was a little tiff called the "Confrontation", which Malaysia has never forgotten.

Best bet is Malaysia sits back, watches it all happen, then after Indonesia falls apart, Malaysia tries to establish a sphere of influence over regions such as Sumartra & Kalimantan where, incidently, there's a lot of oil etc.

[PJ Norris]

I only ask cause after reading John Marsden's Tomorrow series in where a huge invasion force swamps the Australian defense in little more than a month, wins after 2 major land battles. The air force is wiped out on the ground, their navy disperses and the US refuses to come to our assistance. Of course the purpose of this is to create a Balkan-like background to the lives of ordinary Aussie kids who go on to fight a guerilla war against the invaders (John is careful never to give a nationality to the invaders).

I've been thinking about it ever since..the Battle of Brisbane, the siege of Newcastle, the Dividing Range Offensive. I've also drawn a giant map of my suburb in preperation for our defense!

[Wendell]

I can't see how they could. Indonesia attacks first, so out goes any obligation for Malaysia to help Indonesia. And by the time Indonesia needs help, the USA has entered the hostilities against Indonesia.

Furthermore, although Indonesia & Malaysia may both be Islamic, they are far from friendly. They are in competition with each other for everything, not to mention there was a little tiff called the "Confrontation", which Malaysia has never forgotten.

Best bet is Malaysia sits back, watches it all happen, then after Indonesia falls apart, Malaysia tries to establish a sphere of influence over regions such as Sumartra & Kalimantan where, incidently, there's a lot of oil etc.
Well see, could Malaysia intervene against Indonesia to "protect the interests and lives of ethnic Malays." Regardless, it could strengthen Malaysia as a regional power.

[DMA]

I only ask cause after reading John Marsden's Tomorrow series in where a huge invasion force swamps the Australian defense in little more than a month, wins after 2 major land battles. The air force is wiped out on the ground, their navy disperses and the US refuses to come to our assistance. Of course the purpose of this is to create a Balkan-like background to the lives of ordinary Aussie kids who go on to fight a guerilla war against the invaders (John is careful never to give a nationality to the invaders).

I've been thinking about it ever since..the Battle of Brisbane, the siege of Newcastle, the Dividing Range Offensive. I've also drawn a giant map of my suburb in preperation for our defense!


Well I can't see how the Indonesians can do any of this to be honest. At most, their army, for instance, is only about 250 000 strong. And most of that is involved in keeping the various rebellions in place without them becoming one huge civil war covering much of the country. Like they couldn't even keep East Timor undercontrol, so I can't see how their army has a chance at conquring all of Australia. And, needless to say, their air force & navy has zero chance in taking on the RAN & RAAF.

Having said all that, the best scenario for Indonesia is in 1976 just after their invasion of East Timor. Not only is Australia in a political mess, thanks to the Dismissal, but our armed forces are very weak as well thanks to Vietnam. We've only got the Adams DDGs as something superior to the Indonesian navy, other than HMAS Melbourne & her A4s. But they'd be in Sydney at the time. Other than that we've got the old Mirage IIIs, but again they're based along the eastern coastline & no where near Darwin. Similarly our subs are based in Sydney. This means the north is open to invasion.

Yet, although I'd say the Indonesians could land a force at Darwin & take it, what's there to take? Dawrin was destroyed at Chrismas 1974. So all they invade is a disaster zone. They have to bring everything with them. Plus their invasion force will not be overly big. They'll need to keep a large force in East Timor, considering the situation there, plus they still have rebellions taking place in Irian Jaya & Ache. So their invasion army will only be about 50 000 at best, limited to light armour & artillery. Meanwhile Australia is forced to react. Although military morale is low after Vietnam, it still has a force of about 30 000 troops, not to mention a similar number of troops who are Vietnam vets. In other words, Australia can field a force of 60 000 well trained troops, half of the veterans, who can take on the 50 000 Indonesians. Australia also has brand new Leapard MBT, over 500 battle tested M-113, and lots of artillery.

So slowly, but surely, the Australians recover from the initial invasion. The Indonesians have to bring everything with them meaning their supply lines are under constant threat. There are limited air & sea battles over the Timor Sea. Although Australia doesn't close the Timor Sea, Indonesia nevertheless loses ships & supplies. At the same time, the Indonesians find that the way south of Darwin is blocked around Adelaide River as per Australia war plans from WW2. A long hard fought battle takes place. After some months, the Indonesians are forced to retreat & finally surrender a few months later in Darwin. The Vietnam veterans, not to mention the Australian military overall, are now heros of the Australian nation, upholding the ethos of the Anzac legend, & the stigma of Vietnam is soon forgotten.

The war ends in stalemate as Australia can't counter-attack Indonesia & they likewise can't do much against Australia. The UN organises a cease-fire etc sometime in mid-1977.

[DMA]

Well see, could Malaysia intervene against Indonesia to "protect the interests and lives of ethnic Malays." Regardless, it could strengthen Malaysia as a regional power.


Oh I certainly agree about the regional power aspect. But like I said, the Malaysians don't have to get involved overly much. Maybe they send in peace keepers after the war into Sumatra & Kalimantan, but that's about all.

Meanwhile, after 9/11, the USA leave the region for other adventures. This means Australia gains complete control over Irian Jaya, Timor, & various islands like Bali & Ambon. Only a "rump" Indonesia remains that's basically Java & the Celebes

[Wendell]

Oh I certainly agree about the regional power aspect. But like I said, the Malaysians don't have to get involved overly much. Maybe they send in peace keepers after the war into Sumatra & Kalimantan, but that's about all.

Meanwhile, after 9/11, the USA leave the region for other adventures. This means Australia gains complete control over Irian Jaya, Timor, & various islands like Bali & Ambon. Only a "rump" Indonesia remains that's basically Java & the Celebes
And the Sunda islands?

[DMA]

And the Sunda islands?


Well they could go either way as could the Malacca's etc.

[JimmyJimJam]

Oh I certainly agree about the regional power aspect. But like I said, the Malaysians don't have to get involved overly much. Maybe they send in peace keepers after the war into Sumatra & Kalimantan, but that's about all.

Meanwhile, after 9/11, the USA leave the region for other adventures. This means Australia gains complete control over Irian Jaya, Timor, & various islands like Bali & Ambon. Only a "rump" Indonesia remains that's basically Java & the Celebes

Yes...America after 9/11 leaves a region in which a large Muslim country directly threatened the interests of the West...hmm.

[Wendell]

I suppose that this scenario would depend on a stronger Indonesia than is the case in OTL?

[PJ Norris]

Change of pace then - let's say Indonesia is as powerful as China?

I've gotta go.

[Wendell]

Change of pace then - let's say Indonesia is as powerful as China?

I've gotta go.
Or, WI Indonesia is a militaristic Islamic Republic?

[DMA]

Yes...America after 9/11 leaves a region in which a large Muslim country directly threatened the interests of the West...hmm.


Well why should the USA stay? The Indonesian attack was launched 2 yearsbefore 9/11! Furthermore it was a pure military attack launched at Australia. The USA only got involved after the fact, & only after Australia destroyed the Indonesian means to further conduct the war. More importantly, peace had been established in the region at least a year before 9/11. On top of all this, Indonesia had split into several different countries, none of which have any intention of fighting anyone, leaving behind a much smaller Indonesia which has surrendered & incapable of any further military activity.

Furthermore, on Indonesia surrendering, Malaysia (another Islamic country BTW), conducts peace keeping operations in the northern region whilst Australia conducts similar operations around the southern regions. As a result, there isn't any reason whatsoever to the USA to have any thing other than a token force in early 2001. Come 9 - 11 - 2001 the USA has far more important things to worry about, like Afghanistan etc, than somewhere like Indonesia which never attacked the USA in the first place. And most certainly never conducted any Islamic terrorist campaign against anyone, let alone the USA. So why would the USA stay considering they weren't even involved in any fighting?

[Dave Howery]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...

[Wendell]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...
Don't forget about the NZ part of ANZUS.

[DMA]

I suppose that this scenario would depend on a stronger Indonesia than is the case in OTL?


Yeah it would, but suggesting that Indonesia is as powerful as China, as PJ Norris said, is complete ASB territory I'm affraid.

The POD thus would have to go back to WW2 & the aftermath. So the Dutch, thus, let the Indonesians have their independence instead of fighting them every step of the way. The infant UN steps in & sends a lot of aid to Indonesia. Similarly, the USA, extends the Marshall Plan to Indonesia as well.

Indonesia, as a result of all this, not only misses out on their War of Independence, but can, with the aid coming in, ensure that it establishes a strong industrial base centred on it's oil resources. As a result, Indonesia begins to blosum economically akin to somewhere like Iran or Saudi Arabia. They also keep out of the "Confrontation" with Malaysia & Sukarno manages the country well.

Suharto, however, still comes to power, in the mid to late 1960s, with an agressive regional policy towards territories like East Timor & Irian Jaya. He inherits, though, a much more powerful country along with a very strong military, especially a navy, with several Adams DDGs, Knox FFs, & Leander FF etc, & an air force consisting of several squadrons of F-4s, A-4s, & F-5s. The army numbers about 250 000 (the same as OTL), but they are much better trained, have better equipment, including a few hundred MBTs like the M48 etc, and have better officers in command.

Australia goes through its owes leading up to 1976. Its Order of Battle isn't all that much different than OTL as Australia is relying more on its ANZUS treaty links more than anything else (pretty much the same as OTL in this period).

So this AH Indonesia attacks East Timor, Australia objects & takes it to the UN. The Indonesians ignore Australia & the UN. Australia moves a destroyer into the Timor region to put pressure on the Indonesians. The RAN ship is sunk, then Indonesia invades Darwin. The only problem is, however, although the Indonesians are well supplied & entrenched in Darwin, they'll still have hassles trying to get past the Australian defence line at Adelaide River. Importantly, though, Australia won't be able to do much about forcing the Indonesian out of Australia. As a result, Australia could loose Darwin & it's surrounds in any negotiated peace. But I can't see how the Indonesians can really make it as far as Brisbane, let alone Sydney.

[DMA]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...


Oh I have my doubts too. This is why I say that the USA only gets involved in this affair after the Australians have defeated the Indonesian attempt to invade. Then the American come along mostly to put pressure on the Indonesians to agree to a cease fire. I don't imagine, though, that USA combat troops will be landed anywhere in Indonesia to fight. Rather, Indonesia implodes. Several thousand US peace keepers may arrive, but only after the fighting between Australia & Indonesia &/or between Indonesians themsleves.

[DMA]

Don't forget about the NZ part of ANZUS.


Yes, they are our Anzac mates the Kiwi's. I'd expect probably a naval vessel, one of their Anzac class, and maybe a battalion of infantry. Something like that.

[Melvin Loh]

If the Indons did decide to invade our country, as you've pointed out, DMA they'd face the same problems the Japs would've had they tried during WWII.

I like your scenarios and info, DMA- just to provide a little more info, during the ET crisis, there were also a few USN vessels in Darwin on military exercise, such as the assault carrier USS BELLEAU WOOD and the cruiser USS MOBILE BAY, and it was revealed afterwards that the latter Aegis cruiser had orders to act as air-defence in case the Indon airforce tried anything to interfere with INTERFET, while No. 75 RAAF sqn's FA-18s were on alert to conduct possible missions against the Indons too. So these US battlewagons would be part of our orbat, too.

[Dave Howery]

DMA> well, I don't think the US would invade Indonesia either. But we would certainly send troops to Australia to help them defend themselves. But the US could send carrier groups to pummel strategic sites in Indonesia, and the USN would scour the ocean of Indonesian ships....

[Fellatio Nelson]

One must also remember that most, if not all, of Australian air space would allow for rapid reinforcement from allied nations, if only of light forces (and more especially Special Forces and 'elite' infantry such as paras and marines).

The East Timor operation was truly multinational, also involving French and UK units (aside from ships, the UK contribution included SBS, RM and Ghurkas, engaged ashore). In the event of this scenario, it would be a near-certainty that the UK would offer immediate tangible military assistance, possibly also France, who maintain limited garrisons in the Pacific region.

I believe the RN maintained a Pacific presence until 1976 (by then a few frigates and a submarine or two).

[jolo]

You're all much too conservative imho. Just imagine a few years of economic boom in Indonesia, a few years of recession in Australia, the US being occupied with sth. else (Iran, Iraq, and another country for instance). Additionally a secret arms development and production program, a secret arms purchasing in countries that can keep such a secret, some secret upgrading, a few official purchases, and so on for Indionesia, while Australia dismantles old weapons and scratches many new developments and systems for a while.

The war starts after Indonesia develops or purchases the bomb, Australia declares itself a republic, and with sth. that lets both sides look bad - like a little skirmish in PNG - so that Australia is kind of isolated at the beginning and Indonesia has some time to find a solution against being overrun by Australia's allies later.

The government and command structure of Indonesia hide in a secret bunker system, most of the Indonesian army is stationed in Australia, and many Australians are transferred to Indonesia. Some Isles get more independence to relieve the troops and to make sure they don't become targets, so that enough of an economy stays intact in case the war turns ugly. All in all, no target for a nuclear counter attack is presented. Even the cities are made uninteresting by evacuating most of the important people and businesses to villages, bunkers, and the likes.

The people are recruited by a work program which officially is designed to make jobless and underemployed people fit for the economy, so that the army increases in size from 250 000 to 5 000 000.

The landing is done covertly by turning a few big ships destined for Australia into troop transporters. Some of the ships are given fake assignments so that officially they come from other countries than Indonesia, so that no-one wonders why 20 or more large ships from Indonesia happen to arrive at the same day in a tense climate.

A fake landing exercise is staged close to northern Australia to divert the Australian troops and test the reaction of the world - if the reaction is within expected limits, the war continues, if the reaction is too strong, the Aussies are allowed to inspect the boats and ships to see that they include only few soldiers and the war is aborted.

After the war starts, all the major military and economic sites of Australia are targeted with rockets. The Australians can counter some of the rockets with patriots, but not anymore after they used them up. The Australians answer by sending their planes to Indonesia, which is the time the soldiers hidden in the ships disembark and occupy all major cities with a harbor. That takes away a lot of the possibilities from Australia to recruit more soldiers, and there is also little air support for the Australian army.

Some Australian ships are sunk, some flee to New Zealand or other places. The Indonesian fleet is hit harder, but still there.

After the dust is settled, the Indonesian army digs in and awaits the international response. It's made easy for Australians to get high paid jobs to make sure there are lots of collaborateurs. The Australians are being given a membership in a federation which treats all states equal and gives christians equal rights to muslims. Australians are motivated to speak to the world demanding no intervention in order to preserve what's left of Indonesia and Australia.

I suppose the world won't listen.

Than we see both Australia and Indonesia bombed to ruins, so that after some time even the Australians would rather be in a federation with Indonesia than let the destruction continue. In the meanwhile, Indonesia leads a war similar to the Vietnam war and Iraq: Hiding in dig outs or among civilians, attacking enemy soldiers in surprise attacks, and retreating. Mining ships, sea lanes, streets and so on used by the enemy. Attacking with torpedo boats, divers, and little subs, with civilian cars, planes, and boats, and so on.

Also, massive amounts of sabotage acts against the enemy countries are attempted - blowing up ships or even whole harbors, burning down storage facilities and other easy targets, and so on.

To divert attention it's also tried to make other countries fight, and not only Muslim countries: North Korea, former Soviet republics, the Balkans, Africa, the Mideast, and so on.

Realistic? not really. Achievable? I think so.

[Grimm Reaper]

PJ, I never heard about that series, tell me more.

How about during the collapse of the USSR we have Indonesia acquire large numbers of RPGs and hand-held SAMs dirt cheap, plus enough to expand the quality/quantity of tanks and heavy weapons? Perhaps 300 T72 tanks and 200 PT76 light tanks? Also perhaps the East German fire sale of frigates and missle boats catches someone's eye?

Indonesia starts simply enough by cramming large numbers of troops into a few merchant ships(50,000?) and head for Darwin. Also they mass against any ships between Darwin and Indonesia. Have another converted ship head for the port nearest Australia's major naval base and have commandos attach limpet mines to every ship they can. Include a few hundred commandos with light vehicles at Darwin in a do or die mission to hit some of Australia's air bases after the war begins.

In all honesty the likelihood of Australia not getting US aid is very poor.

[Cockroach]

The landing is done covertly by turning a few big ships destined for Australia into troop transporters. Some of the ships are given fake assignments so that officially they come from other countries than Indonesia, so that no-one wonders why 20 or more large ships from Indonesia happen to arrive at the same day in a tense climate.
"A few" ships when you plan opperations against all of Australia's significant ports? Remember these ships probably will not be able to carry all that many men despite their size, we are talking about container ships, general cargo ships and maybe an oil tanker or two... i.e. lacking the facilities to carry a large number of men with out any exceptionally obvious modifications.

The Australians answer by sending their planes to Indonesia, which is the time the soldiers hidden in the ships disembark and occupy all major cities with a harbor. That takes away a lot of the possibilities from Australia to recruit more soldiers, and there is also little air support for the Australian army.
This bit is impossible. How the hell do you manage a simultaeous, unopposed series of landings in every Australian port from Darwin to Hobart and Perth? I dare say you will be able to cause lots of chaos and damage but unless you have managed to deliver 30,000-40,000 men to each of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (plus probably 5-6000 to each of the other ports) you don't have a hope in hell of holding.

The people are recruited by a work program which officially is designed to make jobless and underemployed people fit for the economy, so that the army increases in size from 250 000 to 5 000 000.
How does such a large scale build up escape undetected? Despite the 'work program' cover it will be obvious that the training is distinctly military especially if the men remain in the army.

After the war starts, all the major military and economic sites of Australia are targeted with rockets. The Australians can counter some of the rockets with patriots, but not anymore after they used them up.
Again how does Indonesia get a massive number of IRBMs (Intermediate range...) (your average SCUD would be hardpressed to reach the NT let alone Australia's "economic sites of major importance) without calling Australia's attention to them. While a smal number probably could go unnoticed the number needed to do significant damage with conventional warheads is simply too large to hide.

In the meanwhile, Indonesia leads a war similar to the Vietnam war and Iraq: Hiding in dig outs or among civilians, attacking enemy soldiers in surprise attacks, and retreating. Mining ships, sea lanes, streets and so on used by the enemy. Attacking with torpedo boats, divers, and little subs, with civilian cars, planes, and boats, and so on.
A Guerilla (opps! wrong spelling) in unfamiliar terrain with little if any support from the locals? Not a hope in f***ing hell. of this working

[DMA]

If the Indons did decide to invade our country, as you've pointed out, DMA they'd face the same problems the Japs would've had they tried during WWII.

I like your scenarios and info, DMA- just to provide a little more info, during the ET crisis, there were also a few USN vessels in Darwin on military exercise, such as the assault carrier USS BELLEAU WOOD and the cruiser USS MOBILE BAY, and it was revealed afterwards that the latter Aegis cruiser had orders to act as air-defence in case the Indon airforce tried anything to interfere with INTERFET, while No. 75 RAAF sqn's FA-18s were on alert to conduct possible missions against the Indons too. So these US battlewagons would be part of our orbat, too.


Thanks Melvin. I knew the USN had a couple of ships there, but I didn't know the Mobile Bay (or any combat ship) was there. I thought it was just a transport ship or two (or something like that). Having said that, I'll go along with what you've said in any 1999 scenario.

[DMA]

DMA> well, I don't think the US would invade Indonesia either. But we would certainly send troops to Australia to help them defend themselves. But the US could send carrier groups to pummel strategic sites in Indonesia, and the USN would scour the ocean of Indonesian ships....


I agree with all this, but I'd say it'd be more or less over by the time these American assets etc are in place. Indonesia would implode. I'd say a situation would occur akin to what happened to Iraq in 1991 although the various rebellions are successful. Indonesia, or what's left of it, agrees to a cease fire etc before the USA launches any major offensive. Americans troops would be involved in any peacekeeping operations for the next 12 months. They would probably have withdrawn, for the most part, even before 9/11 comes along.

[DMA]

Realistic? not really. Achievable? I think so.


I think Cockroach pretty well stated what had to be said for this ASB adventure. I'll simply state it's both unrealistic and completely unachievable.

If you want Indonesia to be a serious threat to Australia, war wise, you have to go back to the 1945-50 period as I posted earlier. But even then their victory is limited. And, furthermore, the only window I see for Indonesia to achieve some sort of victory is in 1976.

I'd like to add, though, considering I've been rather anti-Indonesian in this thread, a couple of points. First off the Indonesians learnt all the wrong lessons from all the wrong people over the last century. If it wasn't the Dutch, then it was the Japanese, & then it was the Dutch again. Change their WW2 experience, along with the period after it, & Indonesia could have been a model democracy that many in the region could have learnt a lot from. And secondly, in the post 2000 period, Indonesia is slowly learning its potential, now that democracy is finally becoming truly entrenched there (albeit it is far from perfect). I don't expect to see any future serious lows in the Australian/Indonesian relationship like there has been in the past. So forget about any possible future war.

[DMA]

How about during the collapse of the USSR we have Indonesia acquire large numbers of RPGs and hand-held SAMs dirt cheap, plus enough to expand the quality/quantity of tanks and heavy weapons? Perhaps 300 T72 tanks and 200 PT76 light tanks? Also perhaps the East German fire sale of frigates and missle boats catches someone's eye?


Well they did get the East German navy fire sale. Most of the ships proved to be completely unsuitable as they were crap. Many were scraped. None are superior to RAN vessels. It'll simply mean more Indonesian ships on the bottom of the Timor Sea.

The Indonesians have PT-76 light armour now along with AMX-13s, Saladin & Ferret armoured cars along with various APCs. And we all saw how effective T-72s were in Iraq. But all of that is useless sitting in their amphib ships at the bottom of the Timor Sea.


Indonesia starts simply enough by cramming large numbers of troops into a few merchant ships(50,000?) and head for Darwin. Also they mass against any ships between Darwin and Indonesia. Have another converted ship head for the port nearest Australia's major naval base and have commandos attach limpet mines to every ship they can. Include a few hundred commandos with light vehicles at Darwin in a do or die mission to hit some of Australia's air bases after the war begins.


Indonesia doesn't need to grab a large merchantman or two for sea transport. They have quite a large enough amphib fleet to move troops & equipment around.

There isn't actually a single RAN homeport these days. Different story for 1976, but in 1999 there is Sydney, Perth, Darwin, & a smaller naval base at Cairns. Sydney, the larger of the four, would be impossible to take in the manner described, as the base is in Sydney Harbour completely surrounded by the city itself. Perth could be taken, as could Darwin, but the ship would be challenged at sea by the RAN long before it reached port.

To conduct these commando attacks, & air base attacks, you need the equipment & personnel in order to do that. Now sure, an attack on Darwin maybe within the capacities of Indonesia, but forget somewhere like Perth or Sydney. the distances alone make it more or less impossible.


In all honesty the likelihood of Australia not getting US aid is very poor.


It's not that the USA wouldn't help Australia; it's just that the help would be late in coming. By then it's basically all over bar the shouting.

[JLCook]

I find it difficult to believe that Australians would actually believe that the USA would not immediately intervene in a confrontation with Indonesia.

Americans like to stand with our FRIENDS, and our BEST friends are countries like the UK and Australia for example. Canada would also be included, but, since Canada is conveniently located directly adjacent to the USA itself, they are forever totally immune to the threat of ANYONE.

Should an event occur, something li8ke this Indonesian attack on Australia, the US Response would be swift, and lethal to the invader. It can of course, be pointed out that we did not come to the aid of the UK in 1982 when Argentina invaded British territory in the Falklands, but for a fact, the UK did not really NEED our aid and was capable of evicting the trespassers themselves. Of course the UK OOB would have been far more lethal if there had been as much as a single, US Carrier group available, but the UK forces were by themselves, sufficient.

IF we are postulating that the Indonesian forces are successful to the point of placing ground forces on Australian territory and in defeating RAN and RAAF forces deployed to prevent that occurance, the arrival of a US Carrier Attack group would be swift and shortly thereafter, there would be a real shortage of worthwhile "targets" anywhere within Indonesian Territory and the eviction, or possibly ARREST of indonesian groun d forces would swiftly follow.

Americans do not abandon their friends!

[DMA]

I find it difficult to believe that Australians would actually believe that the USA would not immediately intervene in a confrontation with Indonesia.

Americans like to stand with our FRIENDS, and our BEST friends are countries like the UK and Australia for example. Canada would also be included, but, since Canada is conveniently located directly adjacent to the USA itself, they are forever totally immune to the threat of ANYONE.

Should an event occur, something li8ke this Indonesian attack on Australia, the US Response would be swift, and lethal to the invader. It can of course, be pointed out that we did not come to the aid of the UK in 1982 when Argentina invaded British territory in the Falklands, but for a fact, the UK did not really NEED our aid and was capable of evicting the trespassers themselves. Of course the UK OOB would have been far more lethal if there had been as much as a single, US Carrier group available, but the UK forces were by themselves, sufficient.

IF we are postulating that the Indonesian forces are successful to the point of placing ground forces on Australian territory and in defeating RAN and RAAF forces deployed to prevent that occurance, the arrival of a US Carrier Attack group would be swift and shortly thereafter, there would be a real shortage of worthwhile "targets" anywhere within Indonesian Territory and the eviction, or possibly ARREST of indonesian groun d forces would swiftly follow.

Americans do not abandon their friends!


Which part of the following statement don't people understand:


It's not that the USA wouldn't help Australia; it's just that the help would be late in coming. By then it's basically all over bar the shouting.


To put it simply, in helping Australia defend itself, US forces in 1999 have to come from either Japan or the Persian Gulf (or from North America for ground troops). That's at least a two week journey or so in order to get a Carrier Battle Group in theatre. Meanwhile the Battle of the Timor Sea has come and gone. The Indonesian navy is all but sunk, whilst many of her F-16s, F-5s & A-4s have been shot down. For all intents & purposes, Indonesia can no longer conduct military operations against Australia.

As a result, there isn't much of a job the USN can do other than commence a missile & air offensive against Indonesia itself. But far more importantly, now that the Indonesian military has suffered a horrendous defeat, rebellions will explode almost everywhere, meaning the Indoneisan army will be too busy conducting operations against their own people than worry about what Australia &/or the US might do.

Thus the smart option for Australia/US is to sit back & watch Indonesia fall to pieces. Then, after a UN brokered cease-fire has been arranged, send in peace keepers to support the break away regions whilst the "rump" Indonesians settle down & explain themselves.

[Dave Howery]

actually, it would kind of depend on just where the US forces are. If the US isn't distracted by something like Iraq or Afghanistan, then our airborne forces would be there ASAP. We usually have at least one carrier in the vicinity, and it could help pretty quick. Then there are the Marines at.... Guam? Somewhere in the region. Plus, we could send aircraft over pretty damn quick.
OTOH, if the US is bogged down in something like Iraq, then naval forces are all you'll get for a while...

[DMA]

actually, it would kind of depend on just where the US forces are. If the US isn't distracted by something like Iraq or Afghanistan, then our airborne forces would be there ASAP. We usually have at least one carrier in the vicinity, and it could help pretty quick. Then there are the Marines at.... Guam? Somewhere in the region. Plus, we could send aircraft over pretty damn quick.
OTOH, if the US is bogged down in something like Iraq, then naval forces are all you'll get for a while...


All very true. But in the case of Indonesia attacking Australia, realistically we're talking three dates - 1976, 1980, & 1999. So the USA's forces are pretty much free at these times to assist Australia in its defence, although the 1976 period could be dicey thanks to the Vietnam experience.

But let's say the USA immediately sends aid. It's still got to come from a long way away. Sure a few battalions of Airborne troops could be in Darwin within a day or two, but anything else is going to take time. So I wouldn't expect any Carrier Battle Group to arrive for at least two weeks. Likewise any US armoured division will take its time getting here as well. Not only do the troops need to be transported all the way from their current location, but all their equipment will have to be transported as well, as there's no forward deployment of equipment in Australia.

Whatever the case, Australia will have to fight on it's own, thus, for at least two weeks. And in this time is, obviously, when the all important battle will take place.

[Dave Howery]

carriers might be closer than two weeks.... they spend a lot of time around Taiwan. Plus, there is a whole Marine division somewhere in the Pacific... sure it'd take them some time to get there, but they'd be way ahead of everyone else... and they are designed to bring their own equipment. But you're right, Australia would have to do nearly all the work. Still, the US could get some help over there.. you wouldn't be totally alone in it...

[Wendell]

carriers might be closer than two weeks.... they spend a lot of time around Taiwan. Plus, there is a whole Marine division somewhere in the Pacific... sure it'd take them some time to get there, but they'd be way ahead of everyone else... and they are designed to bring their own equipment. But you're right, Australia would have to do nearly all the work. Still, the US could get some help over there.. you wouldn't be totally alone in it...
Don't forget that the Micronesian republics were under U.S. control until 1994.

[DMA]

carriers might be closer than two weeks.... they spend a lot of time around Taiwan. Plus, there is a whole Marine division somewhere in the Pacific... sure it'd take them some time to get there, but they'd be way ahead of everyone else... and they are designed to bring their own equipment. But you're right, Australia would have to do nearly all the work. Still, the US could get some help over there.. you wouldn't be totally alone in it...


Well again it depends upon dates & commitments. It also depends upon who's in the White House. So if it's 1976, there maybe a short delay all things considered. Not only is the the Vietnam experience going to make both US military & politicians think twice, but Nixon is having his own political hassles around this time. 1980 sees Carter as Prez. He will think about things twice, by exploring peaceful alternatives, before committing the US military to helping Australia. 1999 is Clinton & again he may think about things twice before committing the US to a military response.

Now, although I see the US complying with their ANZUS treaty obligations, it still essentially comes down to the Battle of the Timor Sea. Well that will take place before the US can respond at any date, regardless whether they have assests only a week or so away. So Australia will have to deal with this aspect first. I'd say that in 1976 the Indonesians will probably win the Battle of the Timor Sea & get their invasion forces to Darwin with little effort. In 1980 it's an each way bet depending upon how ready Australia is for a war. Whilst in 1999 they'll be defeated long before they can invade.

Importantly for Australia, it's in 1976 & 1980 where the US military can cut off the Indonesian supply lines, in the Timor Sea, & crush their navy & air force in the process. Now for 1976, it'll probably take 2 weeks for this to take place. And there'll be full committment from almost the beginning, meaning Indonesia has to battle it out with the military might of the USA not long after they invade.

But for 1980 it all depends on how much committment Carter wants to give Australia. I see it being piecemeal, althoughthe USA eventually gets dragged into the conflict, even though Carter is reluctant to do so, as he is more inclined to pursue peaceful ways first before committing to major combat operations.

[DMA]

Of course there's another alternative to all this, which would ensure zero help from the USA, and that's if Australia went along with a British plan & attacked Indonesia in the mid 1960s. It was a serious idea from Britian, at the time, because of the "Confrontation" taking in Malaysia which had Indonesia on the one side, with Malaysia, Singapore, UK, Australia & NZ on the other.

[wkwillis]

I think that an Indonesian invasion of Australia is only realistic in the event of some of the below.
1. Major plague that kills off so many people that Australia's industrial potential is no longer superior to Indonesia. Say, 90%.
2. Major climate disturbance that disrupts crops to the extent that Indonesians begin getting in small boats and sailing to Australia in search of food, if only in the form of long pig.
3. Nuclear war that eliminates the entire Australia (and American, and Chinese) military-industrial complexes, possibly combined with 1. and 2. above.
4. Development of advanced RPV weapons technology by China or India and Indonesian purchase of same, followed by Indonesia then sneaking in a few tens of thousands of troops in container ships, subsequently combined with airlifting in a few hundred thousand more. This is workable only if the Australian allies like the US and the UK were to back down from a nuclear threat.

[Othniel]

I think that an Indonesian invasion of Australia is only realistic in the event of some of the below.
1. Major plague that kills off so many people that Australia's industrial potential is no longer superior to Indonesia. Say, 90%.
2. Major climate disturbance that disrupts crops to the extent that Indonesians begin getting in small boats and sailing to Australia in search of food, if only in the form of long pig.
3. Nuclear war that eliminates the entire Australia (and American, and Chinese) military-industrial complexes, possibly combined with 1. and 2. above.
4. Development of advanced RPV weapons technology by China or India and Indonesian purchase of same, followed by Indonesia then sneaking in a few tens of thousands of troops in container ships, subsequently combined with airlifting in a few hundred thousand more. This is workable only if the Australian allies like the US and the UK were to back down from a nuclear threat.
Or that Indonesia is able to match the Australlian Output by increasing the number of factory workers. I think they are the sixith largest population in the world. So here's my scenario;

In 2002 a bloodless nationist coup takes place. This Indonesia brings in survors to scower the islands for resources and they discover a seris of usable mines. This new goverment also improves the economy by gaining more factories. Loose National business laws come into effect.

2012 Brazillian Millitary manufactures find a second market in Indonesia and start millitary build up at an increasing rate but goes unnoticed.

2030 Indonesia is now a threat to Australlian Security if they choose to attack. Indonesia within 50 years will need to expand.

[Syphon]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...

Don't forget the the old B-52's! QANTAS Flight crews and conventional bombs or missiles and the Indonesians could be looking at a heap of trouble.

What's 10 or 15 old B-52's from the boneyard in Arizona to the US, the USAF might even give to us for free just so they can trumpet how good for an old bird they are and should be kept in reserve.

[DMA]

I think that an Indonesian invasion of Australia is only realistic in the event of some of the below.
1. Major plague that kills off so many people that Australia's industrial potential is no longer superior to Indonesia. Say, 90%.
2. Major climate disturbance that disrupts crops to the extent that Indonesians begin getting in small boats and sailing to Australia in search of food, if only in the form of long pig.
3. Nuclear war that eliminates the entire Australia (and American, and Chinese) military-industrial complexes, possibly combined with 1. and 2. above.
4. Development of advanced RPV weapons technology by China or India and Indonesian purchase of same, followed by Indonesia then sneaking in a few tens of thousands of troops in container ships, subsequently combined with airlifting in a few hundred thousand more. This is workable only if the Australian allies like the US and the UK were to back down from a nuclear threat.


Indonesia with nuclear weapons... :rolleyes:

[Melvin Loh]

If you want more info on US forces in the Pacific, consult USPACOM's webpage here- http://www.pacom.mil/ and http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/pacom.htm

Dave, as for specifics on US ground forces now, I believe the 3rd Marine Div is still deployed in Okinawa, tog with the 1st MEF at Camp Pendleton outside San Diego, 172nd Inf Bde (Light) at Ft Wainwright, Alaska, elements of 2nd INDIANHEAD and 25th TROPIC LIGHTNING Inf Divs in Hawaii and at Ft Lewis, Washington (who now comprise several IBCTs), tog with 1 Ranger bn at Ft Lewis too (2nd/75th IIRC). The 501st Para Inf, as part of the 172nd, have conducted joint exercises with our airborne guys from 3RAR inear Townsville, too. There's also Andersen AFB on Guam, Elmendorf AFB in Alaska, among others, while the USAF is a frequent visitor to the RAAF bases at Darwin and Katherine, and also to Pine Gap near Alice.

BTW, don't forget also that in 1976 or 1980 the USN still maintains a strong naval and air presence in the Philippines, at Clark AFB and Subic Bay, prior to the evaucation necessitated by Mt Pinatubo erupting in 1990-91. Oh yeah, also the 9th Inf Div (OLD RELIABLES) were based at Ft Lewis until their inactivation in the early 90s- how would these guys, converted to mech inf, have fared in assisting in the defence of Australia ?

DMA, there was talk in Darwin last yr before I left Australia of the US military establishing a forward deployment logistics base in the Top End, which was very controversial.

[Leo Caesius]

Wouldn't it be more likely for Indonesia to pick on someone more practical, say, the Philippines? Imagine if Indonesia decided to "liberate" Mindanao...

[Melvin Loh]

Interesting qn, Leo, but would the Moro extremists of the MILF et al be all that ready to welcome the TNI with open arms, even againt a common infidel enemy in the form of the Philippine defence force, due to the TNI's record of atrocities against other Islamists in Aceh ?

[Leo Caesius]

I think we'd need to see Indonesia fall into the hands of a group like the Jemaah Islamiah, whose connections with MILF (God I love that acronym) are well-established. These groups seek to establish a kind of pan-Malayopolynesian Islamic Emirate called the Dauliah Islamiah Raya, which would comprise Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore. Once that dream has been accomplished, I believe this expansionistic Islamic uber-Indonesia would eventually turn its sights on SEAsia and Australia.

[Melvin Loh]

Heck, I believe that's already AQ's plan for our country, to seize northern Australia as part of the DAR-EL-ISLAM. Well, they're welcome to try...

[Wozza]

What does MILF stand for?

isn't an emirate the AQ plan for EVERY country?

[Melvin Loh]

Leo, MILF is the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, who've ben fighting for an independent Islamic state in the southern Philippines ever since the days of Spanish rule. I believe Black Jack Pershing saw some service against em during the Philippine Insurrection, and of course the modern Philippine army still faces off against the Islamists.

[Leo Caesius]

That's Wozza who wants to know what MILF means. I'm aware of several meanings answering to that acronym, but in the context of Mindanao it's quite obvious which is which. :D

[Wozza]

That's Wozza who wants to know what MILF means. I'm aware of several meanings answering to that acronym, but in the context of Mindanao it's quite obvious which is which. :D

I have always preferred the term "Yummy Mummy" to MILF, personally.
so is it Moro or Mindanao?

[Leo Caesius]

I have always preferred the term "Yummy Mummy" to MILF, personally.
so is it Moro or Mindanao?Moro's the ethnic group. Mindanao is the large southern island in the Philippines where many of them live.

[wkwillis]

POD is 1943, Roosevelt dies, Wallace takes over and is reelected. No assistance for KMT and China takes over all the islands, specifically Taiwan, Hainan, and Hong Kong. No assistance for the French, either, in Vietnam, and the British go broke and give up their colonies like Malaysia and Burma, as well as India.
The US pulls out of the Phillipines, too. No postwar aid for anticommunism. Ditto Korea which is controlled by Russia, so no postwar boost for the economies of the Pacific Rim as in OTL.
The Chinese capitalists go to Indonesia and Indochina and Malaysia and the Phillipines and Burma and Thailand, which form a trade federation, and eventually a nation. Because the nation has the Chinese industrial revolution of our time starts in "Asianesia" and keeps going and going and going.
The Chinese and Indian minorities get industry going and the diversified ethnic and political structure keep military coups from diverting things and political rentseeking competitive instead of centralising, as in China and India on OTL till recently.
Fifty years later they are economically about as big as China is now, about half as populous so their standard of living is fairly high and they can afford an army and airforce and navy worth talking about, and only 150 miles from Australia. Now they could successfully invade. If they wanted to bother. Rich countries can just buy what they want. They don't need to actually march in to the shop when they can get it delivered and sit in front of the TV while they wait.

[Wendell]

I have always preferred the term "Yummy Mummy" to MILF, personally.
so is it Moro or Mindanao?
Actually, an Islamofascist Indonesia interfering in the 'Pines is a good way to get the U.S. involved, but not necesarily Australia-well, maybe not right away...

[DMA]

Indonesian-Australia War 1980-81


The Northern Australian Regiment


http://www.geocities.com/CollegePark/Lab/3771/nt.jpg

11 November 1975 Gough Whitlam Australian Labor Party (ALP) government dismissed by Governor-General John Kerr.

7 December 1975 Indonesia invades East Timor

2 April 1976 Australia officially protests Indonesia’s invasion & annexation of East Timor.

3 January 1979 Australian Foreign Minister Andrew Peacock (Liberal Party) announces that "the Government has decided that although it remains critical of the means by which integration was brought about it would be unrealistic to continue to refuse to recognise de facto that East Timor is part of Indonesia.

6 December 1979 East Timorese refugees protest in Sydney. Many Australian’s express sympathy towards their plight including Peacock.

7 December 1979 East Timorese demonstrate in Dili (East Timor capital). Indonesian troops open fire without warning. 97 protesters are killed, hundreds wounded.

9 December 1979 Word gets out via film after two survivors of the Dili massacre arrive in Darwin Australia. The world is horrified.

FRETLIN, the East Timorese guerrilla army, opens an major offensive in retaliation for the Dili massacre.

10 December 1979 World governments protest to the Indonesian Government. Several recall their ambassadors as a result. Indonesian President Suharto denies that the massacre took place.

Peacock calls Suharto a liar on the evening ABC news.

Later that night, a QANTAS flight landing in Bali (Indonesia) is surrounded by Indonesian troops. It is ordered to turn around & head back to Australia.

FRETLIN ambush an Indonesian army patrol near Dili. The patrol is all but eliminated. Reinforcements manage to repeal FRETLIN & capture one guerrilla.

11 December 1979 Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser (Liberal Party) is furious at Peacock & demands that he apologise to Indonesia.

Before the apology, Indonesia breaks diplomatic relations with Australia. Suharto accuses Australia of deliberately trying undermine Indonesian security by arming FRETLIN. Furthermore, he claims that Australia wants to seize Timor for itself. Proof of these allegations is presented in the form of the captured FRETLIN soldier.

Fraser is forced to support Peacock. The false Indonesian allegations are naturally denied.

The world, however, is not sure who to believe.

Small battles continue throughout East Timor.

12 December 1979 A battle of significant size occurs in the mountains behind Dili. Over 100 Indonesians are killed. FRETLIN withdraw under the cover of night.

CIA quietly approaches the Australian Securities & Intelligence Service (ASIS) about Suharto’s accusations. ASIS convinces CIA that they are false.

13 December 1979 US President Jimmy Carter offers to be mediator between Australia & Indonesia. Australia accepts immediately, there is no reply from Indonesia.

Indonesian army executes 100 E. Timorese villagers in retaliation for the deaths of their soldiers the previous day.

14-15 December 1979 Brief fire fights occur throughout E Timor between FRETLIN & the army.

16 December 1979 FRETLIN opens an office in Darwin. They announce to the media, at the humble opening ceremony, information concerning the village massacre of the 13th.

Carter expresses concern over the village massacre & again offers to mediate.

Indonesia denies the massacre & offers to take journalists to the alleged village. Again they condemn Australia.

Suharto accepts Carter’s offer. Secretly he orders the Indonesian Defence Minister to prepare for possible military action against Australia.

17-18 December 1979 Skirmishes continue in E. Timor.

19 December 1979 Selected journalists are shown the alleged massacred village. None of the journalists are Australians or Americans. They are deliberately shown a different one. The journalists report what they have been shown, knowing no better.

20 December 1979 Carter wishes to start the negotiation process. Suharto defers, saying it would be inconvenient to have the Christmas - New Years period interrupt the negotiations. He suggests a date early in the New Year.

Fraser concurs with Suharto. The meeting is set down for 8 January 1980.

21 - 22 December 1979 Skirmishes continue in E Timor. Several Indonesians are killed. Indonesians retaliate by executing 50 civilians. This event is secretly filmed by a FRETLIN guerrilla & an ABC journalist.

23 December 1979 While trying to smuggle the film out of Timor, the ABC journalist is shot & killed. However the film makes it to Darwin.

ABC TV in Darwin broadcast the film to the world. It is also announced that the ABC journalist, who shot the film, was killed by Indonesian soldiers.

24 December 1979 Peacock condemns the Indonesian army & demands Suharto bring those in the army to justice. There is no reply from Indonesia.

The Indonesian Defence Minister reports to Suharto that an action of considerable size can be mounted against Australia, but expresses concerns of American involvement. Suharto argues that Carter will threaten, but not intervene.

28 December 1979 ASIS starts to identify heavy Indonesian military preparations. They cannot determine the exact reasons, but assume that they are connected with the fighting in E Timor.

31 December 1979 Fighting intensifies on E Timor. ASIS notes that none of the Indonesian military units identified in the military preparations engage in the fighting. They notify Signals Directorate (SD is military intelligence) and they concur. SD notes that the Indonesian units are orientated towards Australia. They issue a joint alert. But due to the holidays, nothing is done.

1-2 January 1980 Fighting continues to grow in E Timor. Almost 500 Indonesians become casualties in the fighting. FRETLIN casualties are lower.

3 January 1980 Fighting continues in E Timor. Fraser puts the armed forces on alert. Reserves are called up as a result. Confusion runs riot as both regulars & reserves are on holidays. The few units that are intact, are sent to Darwin. Some individual personnel are put in improvised units & are likewise flown to Darwin.

4 January 1980 The situation in Darwin resembles a zoo at feeding time. Troops, units, & civilians are thoroughly lost. Above all, no one knows what is going on. Northern Command (NORCOM) organises what it can & the few units that are operational, a mix of regulars & reserves, are given their patrol objectives.

5 January 1980 The Great Skedaddle. Indonesian paratroops & assault troops invade Darwin. The airport & port are taken. Those few troops on guard duty around Darwin are either killed or captured within 15 minutes.

About 1 000 military personnel grab whatever transport they can & flee down the Stuart Highway heading south. Several thousand civilians join The Great Skedaddle as mayhem takes control. No one is in charge. More Indonesian troops arrive & Darwin is firmly secured.

1st AUS Brigade is notified of the disaster & holts its advance at Katherine. They immediately dig in anticipating an Indonesian attack at any moment.

Three platoons have been cut off north of Darwin. None of them are aware of the situation.

The rest of Australia is busy celebrating the New Year summer holidays. Not even Army GHQ in Canberra is aware of the Indonesian invasion.

6 January 1980 Australia wakes up finding it has a war on its hands.

Fraser protests to Suharto. There is no reply.

Fraser alerts the UN. Peacock heads for New York.

1st AUS Brigade starts to collect those troops fleeing from Darwin. Many of the NORCOM troops have to be threatened with death before they obey orders. Morale is low. Civilians only make the situation worse.

The Australian Air Force (RAAF) tries to fly recon missions to Darwin, but encounter Indonesian planes & cannot get through.

Events on East Timor are soon forgotten

7 January 1980 The UN & the world, including the USA, condemns the Indonesian action. However, none offer Australia any military help.

Indonesian patrols reach Katherine. A few shots are exchanged but there are no casualties.

Reinforcements are rushed to Katherine.

8 January 1980 One of the "lost" platoons return to Darwin wherein they discover the Indonesian forces. Fighting soon starts, but the platoon is overwhelmed. 5 of the soldiers manage to escape, the rest are either killed in the battle or captured.

A build up by both forces continues at Katherine.

9 January 1980 The second "lost" reserve platoon (2 platoon, Bravo company, 6RAR - 2B6) heads back to Darwin. They are intercepted by the 5 survivors. Lt Mark Davis (reserve) is at first shocked by the news. Davis decides to search for the remaining "lost" platoon.

Peacock meets with the UN security council. They begin to debate the situation.

Indonesian forces attack the Katherine line. They are unsuccessful.

10 January 1980 The UN security council demands Indonesia to explain themselves. The Indonesians argue that they are defending their country. They claim most of the weapons encountered in E Timor comes directly from the Australian army & presents several examples proving their point. They also produce the captured FRETLIN guerrilla who restates his earlier claims. Peacock counters that the weapons are ones captured in Darwin & that the guerrilla is lying. Peacock is right, but the damage is done.

2B6 come across six stragglers from Darwin. They are ordered to fall in.

The Katherine front is quiet.

11 January 1980 The UN security council votes. USSR & China abstain. UK, USA & France votes in favour of Australia, but the other member's votes are split. Alas Peacock's request misses by one vote.

The Katherine front remains quiet, although serious air combat begins.

12 January 1980 Platoon 2B6 meets up with the other "lost" platoon, 1st platoon, alpha company, 4RAR (1A4), commanded by Lt Peter Grant (regular). Grant & Davis discuss the situation & decide to join forces. First priority is to find a way to communicate with their superiors. They & 66 soldiers, a mix of reserves & regulars, head for Koolpinyah. Sergeant Watkins (reserve), an aboriginal, jokes that their force is now the Northern Australian Regiment (NAR). The nickname sticks.

Fraser expresses his displeasure at the UN decision, & vows to "defend Australia to the last cent, bullet, man & grain of sand!"

Australian volunteers rally to join the military.

13-16 January 1980 Indonesian army attacks in numbers at Katherine. Severe fighting results & casualties are high. The Australian line holds.

17 January 1980 NAR arrives at Koolpinyah & finds food, shelter & above all a working radio. The local civilians appear nonplused by the resent events & are amused to have such visitors.

After going through various radio operators NAR is finally put in contact with 1st Brigade & briefed. They are ordered to hold tight.

22 January 1980 The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) sends a small task force of 2 frigates (HMAS Newcastle , HMAS Torrens) & 2 patrol boats to intercept a convoy heading for Darwin. The convoy is escorted by two small escorts, which are quickly sunk. The 4 convoy transports carrying food & equipment are also sunk.

The Indonesian air force throws everything they can at the RAN ships & all, but one patrol boat, are sunk. The Indonesian air force, however, looses ten A-4 fighters/bombers in the process.

The RAN refuse to conduct any more such operations.

1 February 1980 Indonesian forces, due to radio intercepts, locate the NAR at Koolpinyah. The army sends a unit to investigate.

2 February 1980 NAR pickets inform Grant that the Indonesians are approaching. NAR has organised good defenses since they arrived & ambush the Indonesians. The Indonesians are defeated with heavy casualties. Those that are not captured run off into the countryside to escape.

Lt Grant is seriously wounded in the fight & dies later that night. Davis becomes CO.

3 February 1980 NAR withdraw from Koolpinyah & head for Woolner. Woolner has an airport & Davis hopes that they can be evacuated. With NAR comes most of the local civilians & Indonesian prisoners.

4-6 February 1980 Indonesians attack Katherine in a determined effort. Fighting is intense. Casualties are high. The Australian line holds.

7 February 1980 Indonesians send another force to Koolpinyah to investigate the situation. This force discovers the remains of their earlier force & some old civilians. The Indonesians execute them in retaliation.

Carter tries to start the peace negotiation process. Fraser announces that he is willing, but Indonesia must surrender & pay for the cost of the war. There is no reply from Suharto.

11 February 1980 NAR arrive in Woolner & report to 1st AUS Brigade using the post office radio. They are told no evacuation can occur, but to hold were they are. Hopefully the situation will change in the air & some RAAF Hercules transport planes can evacuate them.

15 February 1980 Three Indonesian helicopters start searching east of Koolpinyah for the NAR. One helicopter flies over Woolner spotting them. Although the Australians shoot at the helicopter, it evades & leaves. Needless to say it reports it findings.

16 February 1980 The three helicopters attack Woolner in the morning. Three Indonesian prisoners & five civilians are killed. Several more are wounded.

An army unit of 112 Indonesians attacks shortly after. However, NAR have prepared for the attack, ambush the Indonesians & counter attack. The Indonesian unit is defeated. Many are killed & wounded. Some Indonesians escape as best they can. Fighting with the NAR are 26 civilians (all aboriginals) who volunteered. Four of them are killed along with two of the soldiers.

Davis decides to withdraw to Point Stuart now that the Indonesians know where they are. With the NAR, most of the civilians & all of the prisoners move too.

17 February 1980 The helicopters return to find Woolner deserted. The troops aboard the helicopters debus & enter the town. The 8 remain elderly inhabitants are executed in retaliation of the previous day’s defeat.

Carter calls for Suharto to begin negotiations. Again there is no reply.

18-20 February 1980 The Indonesian forces attack, in their largest effort yet, the Katherine Line. Battle is desperate & several times the Indonesians break through the first line. Only frightful counterattacks by the Australians repulse the Indonesians.

21 February 1980 An Indonesian helicopter spots the NAR & attacks. Four prisoners & two civilians are killed. However, the helicopter is shot down & all 8 aboard are killed. The helicopter did not communicate its finding.

27 February 1980 NAR arrive in Point Stuart & reports to 1st AUS Brigade via the town radio. The achievements of NAR has started to get attention. Davis is given a combat promotion to captain. Again Davis requests an evacuation & this is organised for March 1.

Point Sturt resembles a refugee camp. Not only are there 60 surviving soldiers & 21 volunteers of the NAR present, but 48 prisoners & 98 civilians are also crammed into a town that usually has no more than 50 people.

28 February 1980 Word reaches Point Stuart, through the aboriginal "grape vine", that the elderly people in Woolmer & Koolpinyah have been executed. Everyone is horrified. Some try to kill the prisoners & need to be restrained. Davis reports this to 1st AUS Brigade who passes the information on.

Fraser that night tells the nation & the world of the massacres.

1 March 1980 The RAAF fly 2 Hercules transport planes into Point Stuart as planned.

Coinciding with the evacuation, the RAAF organise the biggest air offensive in Australian history to date. Air battles take place all over northern Australia. There are casualties on both sides, but the Indonesians loose significant numbers of their F-5 fighters.

On board the Hercules are a troop of SAS, headed by a Captain Morris, with "jeeps". However, there is not enough room for everyone. Davis decides only to send the civilians & prisoners while the NAR stays. Some 70 civilians also remain. The volunteers stay too, after all they are relatives to those Australians executed by the Indonesians.

2 March 1980 The SAS head off by road to confirm & collect evidence of the Indonesian massacres. They are intercepted by a large Indonesian force at Wildman Lagoon. The small SAS force has no chance, but fight like demons. Indonesian casualties are high. One "jeep" with 3 wounded SAS troops, including the driver, manages to flee & makes Point Stuart, thus warning the NAR.

The NAR has no where else to run. The RAAF is overwhelmed with missions & have no spare planes. NAR can not run & leave the civilians behind. It is time to make a stand.

3 March 1980 Word quickly gets out about the NAR as the media interviews the refuges. The massacre is confirmed & it now has a human face. The Indonesian prisoners also provide the face of evil. These images & the refuge’s stories are televised around the world.

The NAR become immortalised as the refuges describe their experiences. Above all the media concentrate on the fact that the NAR "disobeyed" orders by evacuating the refuges & prisoners, while staying behind.

Fraser immediately hammers home the point of the heroism & valour of the Australians, as exemplified by the NAR.

Indonesia denies the massacre allegations & claims that the refuges are actors.

4 March 1980 The Indonesian force that encountered the SAS reach Point Stuart. Battle immediately commences. The Indonesians withdraw after suffering heavy casualties.

6 March 1980 Indonesian reinforcements reach Point Stuart. NAR patrols discover this. Skirmishes continue throughout the day. Davis screams for help, but none is promised. He is ordered to withdraw as best he can. Davis says no & breaks contact with HQ. When Sergeant Waktins hears the news, he says "Yeah well fuck! So what else is new?". "I hear Australia might win in the West Indies", is a mate’s reply. Although they might banter, trying to relieve the tension, no one laughs.

The volunteer "platoon" has increased to 45 in number.

7 March 1980 A huge tropical storm hits Point Stuart in the morning prior to the anticipated Indonesian attack. The Indonesians attack, nonetheless, but they can hardly walk let alone see. The Indonesians are slaughtered & the survivors withdraw to their earlier defensive position.

Word gets out about the desperate & heroic struggle of the NAR at Point Stuart. It appears in the international media everywhere. The Russian military, many of them veterans of WW2, are genuinely impressed & quietly suggest to the Politburo that maybe the USSR should reconsider their policy on this matter.

Carter calls on the UN to intervene.

Peacock seconds Carters request.

8 March 1980 Reinforcements increase the Indonesian force at Point Stuart to about 600 troops. The NAR is outnumbered 6 to 1. Fighting starts & the numbers begin to tell.

At the crucial moment, 10 RAAF F-111 strike aircraft attack the Indonesian force, decimating it in the process. The cavalry has arrived. The stunned Indonesian survivors are taken prisoner by the NAR. It is Australia’s first complete victory.

Later in the day, the RAAF fly into Point Stuart, Hercules, Caribou, & other requisitioned transport aircraft. Reinforcements, the 8th AUS Brigade, has arrived.

8th AUS Brigade commander, Brigadier Chauvel (reserve), promotes Davis to Lt Colonel. Watkins is promoted to Lt.

Chauvel adopts the NAR as the official nickname for the 8th AUS Brigade.

The remaining civilians, volunteer "platoon", wounded & prisoners are evacuated to Townsville.

9 March 1980 The world media runs the story of the Battle of Point Stuart. The evacuees tell of their experiences to national & international audiences.

The NAR becomes a household name throughout Australia.

All the members of the volunteer "platoon" are awarded the Hayden Medal. Lt Grant is awarded the Victoria Cross posthumously. Several more are awarded the Distinguished Service Medal.

At USA’s insistence, the UN security council agrees to reconsider the war.

Peacock once again heads for New York.

10-17 March 1980 Indonesian forces mount their largest offensive at Katherine. The fighting is desperate & savage. Casualties are high. At several points, Indonesian forces break the line. Fighting occurs near Tindal RAAF base where army & air force personnel stop the Indonesian advance.

NAR continues to build up at Point Stuart. Indonesian forces are strained, but a blocking force defends Wildman Lagoon.

Debate goes on at the UN.

18 March 1980 The UN security council votes. Only China abstains, while the UK, France, USA & USSR, along with the majority of the others, all vote for a cease fire, followed by Indonesia’s withdrawal from all Australian territory.

Fraser demands Indonesia to comply. Suharto refuses.

25-31 March 1980 Australian forces counterattack the Tindal Bulge. Included in the attacks are large number of Leopard tanks, used for the first time, in a well planed offensive. Although casualties are high, the Indonesians are pushed back to their original line of March 10.

5 April 1980 The first Australian volunteers start to arrive at the front. Some 15 000 soldiers join the battle hardened veterans.

7 April 1980 The FRETLIN prisoner that the Indonesians used as evidence in the UN debates escapes from the Indonesian UN mission in New York. He pleads for political asylum in the US. He is immediately debriefed by the Americans. He totally admits he was lying earlier in fear of his life. The Americans make this public.

April 10 1980 The UN Security Council passes economic sanctions against Indonesia & once again orders them to withdraw from all Australian territory. Suharto once again refuses

April 11 1980 Carter announces that war equipment will be released to Australia.

Fraser accepts Carter’s offer.

Immediately numerous FA-18s & F-111s are sent to Australia. M-60 tanks & M-113 APCs are loaded aboard ships for transport.

Indonesia protests Carter’s decision & breaks diplomatic relations.

April 12-14 1980 Peacock presents evidence of the Indonesian massacres before the UN.

April 16 1980 NAR patrols make contact with the Indonesian force at Wildman Lagoon. Some shots are exchanged, but there are no casualties.

April 18 1980 UN declares that there is a clear case for the charge of "crimes against humanity" against the Indonesian army.

April 20 1980 RAN orders three of their submarines to commence patrolling the Timor Sea.

April 25 1980 Australia soberly celebrates ANZAC day.

There are no major actions, just the continuing skirmishing.

April 26-May 2 1980 3 Indonesian convoys are intercepted in the Timor Sea. 10 transport ships & two naval escorts are sunk.

35 000 Australian volunteers reach the various fronts.

3-7 May 1980 Australian forces go on the offensive at Katherine. The Indonesian defence is effective. Casualties are high on both sides. The Australian offensive fails.

8 May 1980 NAR attacks Wildman Lagoon. The Indonesians fall back on defensive positions at Mary River. Indonesians rush whatever units that can be spared to Mary River.

9-14 May 1980 The RAN submarines intercept three more Indonesian convoys. All 12 transport ships & two escorts are sunk.

15 May 1980 NAR attacks the Indonesians dug in at Mary River. The Indonesians defend their position gallantly & repeal the Australian attack.

16-18 May 1980 Indonesian Navy conducts a major offensive against the RAN submarines in the Timor Sea. Although three Indonesian ships are sunk, the submarine HMAS Oxley is sunk & the other two submarines withdraw.

21-30 May 1980 Australian forces attack at Katherine in their biggest offensive to date. Although several initial breaches of the Indonesian line occurs, the Indonesians are successful with their counterattacks. The status quo remains.

1 June 1980 The tanks and other equipment arrives from the USA & is rushed to the front lines.

Fraser orders the armed forces to go on the offensive. He demands that progress must be made before 1 July.

2 June 1980 4th AUS Brigade starts to arrive at Point Stuart. They will reinforce NAR.

NAR attacks the Indonesians at Mary River. However, Indonesian reinforcements ensures that they conduct a successful defence.

3-6 June 1980 RAAF conducts a massive air offensive across Northern Australia. The Indonesian loses are significant; only a handful of Indonesian aircraft survive.

7 June 1980 RAN orders three submarines back into the Timor Sea.

8 June 1980 NAR, with 4th AUS Brigade support, attacks Mary River. The fighting is desperate, but the Indonesians manage to repeal the attack.

9-12 June 1980 RAAF conducts continuous strike missions on targets all across Indonesia. 40 F-111s & 35 FA-18s destroy barracks, munition depots, factories, military bases, airports & ports.

15 June 1980 30 F-111s & 10 FA-18s single out Jakarta for strike missions. Among the targets it the Presidential Palace of Suharto. Suharto is not at the Palace & survives the raids.

17 June 1980 RAN submarines intercept a large convoy heading for Darwin. 10 of the transports are sunk.

Suharto orders the Indonesian Navy to close the Timor Sea to the RAN or lose the war.

18-19 June 1980 The Indonesian Fleet sorties everything they can spare and moves 18 ships, of various sizes, into the Timor Sea.

500 Australian artillery pieces begin the biggest artillery barrage in Australia, which is aimed at the Indonesian defences at Katherine.

20 June 1980 Battle of the Timor Sea. RAN submarines report the Indonesian Navy locations. The trap is sprung.

20 F-111s & 20 FA-18s, all armed with Harpoon anti-ship missiles, have been waiting since June 17 for this moment. The RAAF attacks unmolested. The SAM systems of the Indonesian ships prove to be useless. All 18 Indonesian ships are sunk.

The RAN orders the Darwin Task Force into the Timor Sea. It consists of 2 Perth class DDGs, 2 Adelaide class FFGs & one River class FF. The Timor Sea is closed to the Indonesians, not the Australians.

21-25 June 1980 As the artillery barrage continues to pound the Indonesian defences at Katherine, the RAAF begin to pound the Indonesian positions throughout Northern Australia. Mary Creek is singled out for special attention.

26 June 1980 Australia army at Katherine attack the Indonesians. Although the first defence line is taken, the Indonesian reserve line holds.

Suharto orders the Indonesian Navy to send its three submarines into the Timor Sea & sink the Darwin Task Force. The three submarines, which were patrolling off West Timor, head for Beagle Gulf.

Australian 1 Commando Regiment arrives in Perth aboard the transport ship HMAS Tobruk.

27-29 June 1980 The artillery barrage once again starts to pound the Indonesian reserve defence lines at Katherine.

The RAAF concentrates their attacks on Mary River. During this period, the RAAF drops more tonnage of bombs than they did during WW2.

30 June 1980 Indonesia’s Day of Darkness. Indonesia loses two important battles.

Final Battle of Mary River. In the morning, NAR & the 4th Brigade attack the Indonesians at Mary River. The battle is over in 30 minutes as the Indonesian defence collapses. The NAR pursues the few remaining Indonesian units that retreat towards Darwin. Most Indonesians surrender.

Battle of Beagle Gulf. In the afternoon, the HMAS Sydney detects the Indonesian submarines. The helicopters from the HMAS Sydney, HMAS Canberra & HMAS Swan attack the submarines. All three submarines are sunk.

1 July 1980 The Australian forces attack once again at Katherine. 50 000 Australians, involved in the largest battle in Australia, defeat 25 000 Indonesian defenders.

2-3 July 1980 The Indonesians conduct a fighting withdrawal to Pine Creek.

4 July 1980 Lt Colonel Davis, at the head of NAR, enters Darwin. There is no resistance & the few Indonesian forces there surrender. NAR & 4th AUS Brigade spread out & take possession of the city.

Darwin has been more or less destroyed. The few civilians who remained cheer the liberating forces. Lt Watkins asks one of the cheering locals "Is there any cold beer? The last time I had one was well over a month ago, when I was rudely interrupted by an Indonesian shell exploding. What was worse is that they blew up the fucking beer tent! We lost our entire supply."

Word gets to the FRETLIN guerrillas, who have continued with their guerrilla war since January, of the recent Indonesian defeats. Offensive action is planned.

5 July 1980 Fraser calls for the Indonesians to surrender. Suharto refuses.

6-8 July 1980 The Indonesians at Pine Creek withdraw to Adelaide River wherein they discover that Darwin has been taken.

9 July 1980 The Indonesian commander at Adelaide River requests for cease fire, which is granted.

10 July 1980 The Indonesian forces at Adelaide River surrender. 20 000 Indonesian soldiers march into captivity. Northern Australia is liberated.

FRETLIN begin their offensive. The fighting is savage.

11 July 1980 Peacock, Carter & the UN all call for peace talks. There is no reply from Indonesia.

12 July 1980 Fraser arrives in Darwin to see for himself the destruction & to review the troops. Both Davis & Watkins are presented to Fraser. He congratulates them & has a pleasent announcement. Both soldiers are awarded the Victoria Cross.

Singapore offers to hold unofficial peace negotiations & be mediator for the two parties. Fraser accepts the offer & sends Peacock to Singapore.

13 July 1980 Peacock arrives in Singapore & heads off to meet with his opposite number. Unfortunately he is assassinated getting out of the car at the Singapore Foreign Ministry. The Singapore police shoot & kill the assassins. They are identified as Indonesians.

14 July 1980 The CIA announce that the Indonesian assassins belonged to the Indonesian Intelligence Agency.

The world, particularly Singapore & Australia, protest this latest crime. Several more countries recall their ambassadors in protest.

Fraser orders the army to embark the 1 Commando aboard Tobruk & prepare for possible action on Timor.

The RAN patrols off the coast of Timor.

15-31 July 1980 The fighting on E Timor intensifies dramatically. Casualties are in their thousands. This includes several hundred civilians that Indonesians have retaliated against during the fighting.

UN investigators arrive in Northern Australia to investigate the massacres.

Evidence, thanks to contact with the RAN, starts flooding out of E Timor about the battles between the Indonesians & FRETLIN. Furthermore, undeniable evidence of civilian executions in E Timor is also included.

Fraser calls for a UN mandate to enter E Timor, remove the Indonesians & restore law & order.

1 August 1980 The UN security council, after reviewing the compelling evidence, grants the E Timor Independence Mandate.

New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, USA, UK & Fiji all pledge units to the Australian led force.

Suharto announces that E Timor will flow with Australian blood.

2-30 August 1980 The fighting continues in E Timor. The Indonesians are having a hard time of it. They slowly withdraw to the main cities & towns.

The Allies build up their forces in Darwin. USA is criticised when they refuse to send ground troops. Nonetheless their support, in the means of ship & air transport, is greatly appreciated.

31 August 1980 The Allies discover that the Indonesians massacred, a few days previously, an entire village of 200 E Timorese. It is decided that some action must take place immediately.

1 September 1980 Australian 1 Commando, along with other support units, lands on the east coast of Timor. No opposition is met by the Indonesian forces. FRETLIN units make contact.

2-30 September 1980 As more Allied units arrive in E Timor, the Indonesian forces slowly withdraw. Fighting starts. Casualties are high. The Indonesians defend every metre.

FRETLIN units are exhausted. Allied command send them to the rear for rest. Most FRETLIN units, however, refuse to leave the front until it is agreed that they will be the first Allied troops to enter Dili.

1 October 1980 The need for reinforcements becomes a demanding issue for the Allies. Not only have they suffered casualties, but the FRETLIN units withdrawal begins to make itself felt.

NAR & 4th AUS Brigade arrive in E Timor.

5 October 1980 NAR is back in the front line. Lt Colonel Davis commands its 3rd Battalion, while the newly promoted Captain Watkins commands its alpha company.

6-30 October 1980 Heavy fighting continues as the Allies methodically push the Indonesians back. However, it is feared that Suharto might be right when he stated that Australian blood would flow in E Timor.

The UN sanctions are starting to bite Indonesia. Riots start to become a daily occurrance in the major cities.

31 October 1980 Civil war starts in Ambon.

1-20 November 1980 Allied forces continue to push the Indonesians back. Many Indonesians start surrendering. It is noticed that many are out of ammunition & are starving.

Riots continue throughout Indonesia. The civil war spreads from Ambon to other islands.

21-30 November 1980 As the fighting continues, Indonesian generals in Timor begin negotiations for a cease fire. Suharto is not informed of these negotiations.

Police & army units start to crush the rioters across Indonesia. The civil war in Ambon & the nearby islands continues unabated.

1 December 1980 Cease fire goes into effect in Timor. Surrender negotiations commence.

Suharto is furious & calls for the arrest of the Indonesian generals in Timor. They are never arrested.

2-23 December 1980 The cease fire holds, although many FRETLIN units wish to re-enter the fray & attack the Indonesians, killing as many as possible.

Surrender negotiations continue.

The rest of Indonesia is under tight military & police control, except Ambon which continues to burn.

24 December 1980 Indonesian forces surrender in E Timor. The surrender conditions outrage FRETLIN, but saves thousands of casualties. The FRETLIN leadership, nonetheless, abide by the terms.

Suharto is speechless. He has lost the war.

25 December 1980 As per the agreement with the Allies, FRETLIN triumphantly enters Dili followed by the NAR. It is the greatest Christmas present the E Timorese could ever receive. Victory is almost complete.

The civil war in Ambon & the surrounding islands stops for a Christmas cease fire.

1 January 1981 President Carter calls for peace & negotiations with Suharto.

Fraser seconds Carter’s call as does the UN & several other world leaders.

Suharto reluctantly accepts.

Indonesia calms down.

15-20 January 1981 Peace conference takes place in Malaysia.

21 January 1981 The terms of the Peace treaty are made public. A subsequent Settlement treaty is also announced. These are:

The Darwin Peace Treaty 1981 officially ceases hostilities between Indonesia, Australia & the Allies. Indonesia is to pay reparations to the Allies & E Timorese. This will come about by Indonesia surrendering its oil fields in the Timor Sea. The revenue will be shared between the Allies until each nation’s war expenses have been recovered. Sovereignty will then be shared between Australia & E Timor.

The East Timor Treaty 1981 recognises E Timor independence.

1 February 1981 The governments of Indonesia, Australia, E Timor & the Allies sign the two treaties in Canberra.

The original NAR including the volunteer "platoon", dressed in their ANZAC uniforms, is given the honour of being the ceremonial guard at the signing ceremony.

The Indonesian - Australian war is officially over.

[Wendell]

Will this impact the outcome of the 1980 elections in the U.S.?

[AMBOMB]

Similarly their air force is a joke. At best they have about 12 F-16s, all of which are old.

The RAAF has vastly superior aircraft in the F/A 18 & the venerable F-111.
The F-16 is better than the F-18.

[DMA]

The F-16 is better than the F-18.


We're talking 'A' model F-16s in Indonesia, not the far more capable later models that are currently around in the USAF. Furthermore, the Australian F/A-18s are about as far developed as the pre-Super Hornets can be. Besides Australia has about 55 F/A-18s as against 12 Indonesian old F-16s. As a result, the Indonesian F-16s will get slaughtered along with their F-5s comrades.

Of course I'm talking about the current assets of the respective air forces & not 1980. Having said that, in 1980 configuration, the F-16 could not fire the Sparrow (& still can't without a major upgrade, which the Indonesian F-16s haven't had even yet), whilst in 1980 the F/A-18 came with the Sparrow as stock standard (although now it's the AMRAAM instead of the Sparrow). Likewise the F/A-18 can fire Harpoons without any problems, whilst the F-16 can't. The only advantage the F-16 has is top speed & range, neither of which I'd rate overly high considering it's only a slight advantage. By far a greater factor would be the better training & ability of the RAAF pilots over their Indoneisan counterparts.

[DMA]

Will this impact the outcome of the 1980 elections in the U.S.?


To be honest I hadn't even thought about the US Presidential elections. I was concentrating on the Indonesian-Australian aspects.

[PJ Norris]

DMA - I bow to you sir. This is a nicely detailed, enthralling piece of work, with the intensity of what I imagined an invasion would be. Nice work, well done.

PJ, I never heard about that series, tell me more.

Reaper, the Tomorrow When the War Began series, is really good,have a look for it on Amazon or similar. Although it could be classified as a piece of AH, it's more of a war drama, where ordinary kids start a guerilla war around their town eg. blowing up bridges, spying, sabotaging, etc. I thought it was really good. Get it if you can.

[Flocculencio]

Another factor to consider is what Singapore and Malaysia would do. An assault on the major Anglophone power in the region by Indonesia isn't going to make them feel very secure. Indonesia might well find itself under attack from the North.

In fact India might see this as a chance to flex it's muscles and earn brownie points with the West and send Viraat out to menace the Sumatran coast.

[DMA]

DMA - I bow to you sir. This is a nicely detailed, enthralling piece of work, with the intensity of what I imagined an invasion would be. Nice work, well done.


I try. I'm glad you liked it ;)

[DMA]

Another factor to consider is what Singapore and Malaysia would do. An assault on the major Anglophone power in the region by Indonesia isn't going to make them feel very secure. Indonesia might well find itself under attack from the North.

In fact India might see this as a chance to flex it's muscles and earn brownie points with the West and send Viraat out to menace the Sumatran coast.


Again it all depends upon the dates. If it's 1976, although Malaysia & Singapore are not the best of Indoesnian friends, I don't think they're in any position to commence military operations against Indonesia. After that date Malaysian-Australian relations aren't all that great, so I wouldn't expect any help from Malasyia. Singapore is just too small (no offense) to conduct military operations all by itself.

Indian - Australian relations are usually friendly, but they are not military allies. I'd expect India to object to what Indonesia has done, but little else. Above all I'd rule out any military intervention.

[Othniel]

Again it all depends upon the dates. If it's 1976, although Malaysia & Singapore are not the best of Indoesnian friends, I don't think they're in any position to commence military operations against Indonesia. After that date Malaysian-Australian relations aren't all that great, so I wouldn't expect any help from Malasyia. Singapore is just too small (no offense) to conduct military operations all by itself.

Indian - Australian relations are usually friendly, but they are not military allies. I'd expect India to object to what Indonesia has done, but little else. Above all I'd rule out any military intervention.
I can guess what the Malay and Singporean people do.... they prop up food prices to both sides, India might decide to help supply Australlia with lead...

[Wendell]

If India was to be involved, then could it end up winning Bali at War's end, due to religious commonalities?

[Melvin Loh]

DMA, did the RAAF already have FA-18s in 1980 ? i thought the Mirage IIIOs were still retained by our ftr sqns until 1985. What role could No. 76 (?) Sqn at RAAF Butterworth play from Malaysia ? Would KL grant the RAAF rights to operate from their territory, or insist that Malaysian airspace couldn't be used in this conflict ?

What about the role of SOF units like the SASR and OTU, and local Reserve units like NORFORCE ? And does HMAS MELBOURNE also play a role in any of the battles up my way with her A4s and Trackers ?

[Fellatio Nelson]

I thought the main raison d'etre for the ASAS's existence during this period was to use harass any invaders whilst using the size and geography of their nation to best advantage. (I would assume involvement of other specials forces: NZ SAS and SAS, aside from other nations.)

The Mirage III vs. F-16 seems to be base on a false premise. The Indonesians would not have had such aircraft in 1980 - they were still to come into service with NATO allies. Perhaps F-5s, A-4s and USSR relics. If operating from Indonesia, they would have a short time over Australia.

I would assume the Australian pilots and Mirages would be able to deal with these (if not comfortably, given the age and limited weapons of the Mirage). Would, for instance, they have modern AAMs or rely upon older version Sidewinders or French AAMs - which had an appalling hit ration.

The RAN, however, would have significant problems in countering even a smallish airstrike by elderly A-4s etc. unless under air cover. Look at the probs encountered in the FI in 1982 and apply that kind of scenario (minus the exocets and often enclosed seaspaces, but taking into account far smaller Australian ship types and numbers). The Australian AAW aboard all but three ships then consisted of AAA and Seacat SAMs.

[Fellatio Nelson]

I thought the main raison d'etre for the ASAS's existence during this period was to use harass any invaders whilst using the size and geography of their nation to best advantage. (I would assume involvement of other specials forces: NZ SAS and SAS, aside from other nations.)

The Mirage III vs. F-16 seems to be base on a false premise. The Indonesians would not have had such aircraft in 1980 - they were still to come into service with NATO allies. Perhaps F-5s, A-4s and USSR relics. If operating from Indonesia, they would have a short time over Australia.

I would assume the Australian pilots and Mirages would be able to deal with these (if not comfortably, given the age and limited weapons of the Mirage). Would, for instance, they have modern AAMs or rely upon older version Sidewinders or French AAMs - which had an appalling hit ratio.

The RAN, however, would have significant problems in countering even a smallish airstrike by elderly A-4s etc. unless under air cover. Look at the probs encountered in the FI in 1982 and apply that kind of scenario (minus the exocets and often enclosed seaspaces, but taking into account far smaller Australian ship types and numbers). The Australian AAW aboard all but three ships then consisted of AAA and Seacat SAMs.

[Melvin Loh]

Oh heck, what about also if Sukarno decided to inade at some point in the early or mid-1960s ? Say during the West Papua crisis or the Confrontation, if the Indons decided to use their brand new Ilyushin Il-28 lt bmrs and WWII leftover B25 Mitchells and P51 Mustangs to bomb Darwin again ? Would Australia still get involved in Vietnam ?

[Leej]

The USA would definatly help if Australia needed it. Most of the world would help actually via the UN. Directly invading other nations is a big no-no these days.
As it is though Indonesia would be getting no help and the superior Australian navy and airforce would utterly decimate their invasion then start blasting pieces off Indonesia itself que insurgants rising up and declaring independance all over the country.

[Flocculencio]

If India was to be involved, then could it end up winning Bali at War's end, due to religious commonalities?

Highly unlikely. Balinese Hinduism is quite different from the various Indian Hindu traditions although it shares the same sources. I don't think there's much of a perception of commonality between the actual people of Bali and India at this point in time.

[Fellatio Nelson]

Oh heck, what about also if Sukarno decided to inade at some point in the early or mid-1960s ? Say during the West Papua crisis or the Confrontation, if the Indons decided to use their brand new Ilyushin Il-28 lt bmrs and WWII leftover B25 Mitchells and P51 Mustangs to bomb Darwin again ? Would Australia still get involved in Vietnam ?

Whilst there was a huge Royal Navy, RAF and British Army presence in the region, in addition to any others? There were additional garrisons in Singapore and Malaya and ANZUK ensured close working co-operation and swift reinforcement. At this time the RN still had its large carriers carrying jet fighters and bombers.

[DMA]

DMA, did the RAAF already have FA-18s in 1980 ? i thought the Mirage IIIOs were still retained by our ftr sqns until 1985. What role could No. 76 (?) Sqn at RAAF Butterworth play from Malaysia ? Would KL grant the RAAF rights to operate from their territory, or insist that Malaysian airspace couldn't be used in this conflict ?


The RAAF F/A-18s (in the AH) come directly from the USA as war materiel released by Carter. In the OTL, it was around 1981 when the first ones arrived. Although I don't actually say it, yes the RAAF in this AH would have had to rely on the Mirage IIIs until the F/A-18s arrive. I would dare say that the Butterworth RAAF squadron would be stuck there. I'd highly doubt that Malaysia would give it's permission for it to be involved in combat operations or anything else for that matter.


What about the role of SOF units like the SASR and OTU, and local Reserve units like NORFORCE ? And does HMAS MELBOURNE also play a role in any of the battles up my way with her A4s and Trackers ?


NORFORCE etc are all caught up in The Great Skedaddle. Only 3 platoons are left to defend northern Australia after the Indonesian invasion. The survivors of these 3 platoons eventually form the Northern Australia Regiment.

I had ruled out any involvement by HMAS Melbourne as in 1980 she's too old & vulnerable. Besides she's in Sydney at the time of the invasion. Furthermore, the loss of HMAS Newcastle & HMAS Torrens on 22 January 1980 ensures that the RAN won't risk the loss of HMAS Melbourne.

[DMA]

I thought the main raison d'etre for the ASAS's existence during this period was to use harass any invaders whilst using the size and geography of their nation to best advantage. (I would assume involvement of other specials forces: NZ SAS and SAS, aside from other nations.)


In my AH the ASAS do exactly this, although I only mention their involvement in one instance. But expect them conducting various operations where required.



The Mirage III vs. F-16 seems to be base on a false premise. The Indonesians would not have had such aircraft in 1980 - they were still to come into service with NATO allies. Perhaps F-5s, A-4s and USSR relics. If operating from Indonesia, they would have a short time over Australia.


You're right about the F-16s. But then again, in the AH, I don't mention that the Indonesians as having F-16s. I mention F-5s & A-4s.


I would assume the Australian pilots and Mirages would be able to de