Indonesian Invades Australia

[PJ Norris]

What if either in recent history or today, Indonesia invaded Australia? The largest, most populated Islamic nation in the world, which dwarfs Australia's several times, is often viewed by us Aussies as the most likely future enemy. Several disagreements between Australia and Indonesia have never created a level of harmony we often wish, especially when Sth-East Asian Muslims asked Australia to 'give' Indonesia the Northern Territory (!).
It is easy to create a scenario wherby these radically different nations stand on a crises point but what if Australia was invaded? Aussie comments are welcome.

[Othniel]

Well Australlia is easily defendable and Indonesia's weather isn't exactly the best. An invasion of North Australlia would give Australlia pleanty of time to prepare a counter attack.

[DMA]

Well you'll need to completely change the Indonesian Order of Battle. Their navy is a joke &, although they have a lot of amphib vessels, getting them to the Australian shoreline will be a tough task as their combat vessels are no better than an old Leander Class FF.

Similarly their air force is a joke. At best they have about 12 F-16s, all of which are old.

Their army has no heavy armour, and that which they do have is light & old.

So the Indonesians somehow must get their invasion army to Australia in the first place. Our naval ships, the Adeliade class FFGs & Anzac class FFs are superior to anything Inodnesian & aren't overly outnumbered.

Then again the RAN has always has a good submarine branch, superior in both personnel & equipment to the Indonesians. The Indonesians have three old subs.

The RAAF has vastly superior aircraft in the F/A 18 & the venerable F-111.

Whilst the Australian army maybe stretched, even our old Leopoard MBTs could decimate any armoured engagement. And we have superior artillery & lots of it. Only in army personnel, numbers wise, are we at a disadvantage.

So here's a possible scenario, if we're talking large scale engagements. It's 1999 & Australian & Indonesian relations have soured over East Timor & are at an all time low. After some incident, Indonesia declares hostilities towards Australia. A few minutes later, 20 Indonesian fighters (10 A-4s & 10 F-5s) attack Darwin airport & the naval base. Little damage to done to the naval base, but a Qantas passenger jet is destroyed killing over 100 civilians.

Australia declares war (well maybe not war, but certainly hostilities) & goes onto full alert. Everyone/thing is called up.

The Indonesians send a large invasion force to take Darwin. Australia is alerted of this invasion force, through satellite & naval recon, & immedately orders an attack. The first to heed the call is an RAN submarine patrolling the Timor Sea. It attacks sinking an Indonesian FF & one of the amphib ships. Indonesian anti-sub operations drive off the Australian sub, but it escapes destruction. Furthermore, it manages to report the exact location of the Indonesian convoy.

The Indonesians, concerned about an Australia counter-attack, begin to patrol the airspace with a F-16 CAP. They are reinforced with F-5s. Just as well as Australia's next move is to dominate the airspace. An entire squadron, thus, of RAAF F/A-18s attack the Indonesian F-16s & F-5s. After a nasty air battle, Australia finally controls the air, although they lose 2 aircraft to the 16 Indonesian aircraft.

But that's just the beginning. Australia launches 20 F-111 armed with six harpoons each. After getting a fix on the Indonesian convoy, they fire their salvo of 120 Harpoons at the Indonesian ships. Although some malfunction, & some others miss their targets, 90 of the Harpoons hit. All but one of the Indonesian FFs are hit & sunk, whilst only five of the amphib ships survive.

If the Indonesians thought it was over, they were wrong. In the final part of the Australian attack, HMAS Canberra, HMAS Adelaide, & HMAS Anzac (all of which were in Darwin at the time of the Indonesian air raid) now enter the fray. Having been given targeting data from the RAAF, along with similar data coming from their own helos, the Canberra & Adelaide fire four Harpoons each. The last Indonesian FF is sunk along with two more amphib ships. The surviving three Indonesian amphib ships surrender to the RAN task force which had quickly caught up with them.

The 'war' ends when the USA finally acknowledges it's treaty committments to Australia via ANZUS & tells the Indonesians to surrender or face the military might of the USA.

[Wendell]

It might not be an easy war for even the full might of the ANZUS Pact to win.

[DMA]

It might not be an easy war for even the full might of the ANZUS Pact to win.


Depends how the war continues. Certainly the Indonesian navy & airforce is destroyed early on. As a result, the indonesian army is left stuck on whatever island they are currently on.

More importantly, from the Indonesian side, all the little civil wars going on will errupt into one huge rebellion. So most of Kalimantan, Sumartra, Timor, West New Guinea, & many other small islands like Ambon, will be in rebellion. Only somewhere like Java will the Indonesian govt be in control. If anything, the ANZUS allies could sit back & watch Indonesia fall apart, then move in afterwards as peace keepers, leaving Java isolated unto itself.

[Wendell]

Depends how the war continues. Certainly the Indonesian navy & airforce is destroyed early on. As a result, the indonesian army is left stuck on whatever island they are currently on.

More importantly, from the Indonesian side, all the little civil wars going on will errupt into one huge rebellion. So most of Kalimantan, Sumartra, Timor, West New Guinea, & many other small islands like Ambon, will be in rebellion. Only somewhere like Java will the Indonesian govt be in control. If anything, the ANZUS allies could sit back & watch Indonesia fall apart, then move in afterwards as peace keepers, leaving Java isolated unto itself.
But, would the Anglophone support of the breakaway provinces last, even if an agreement is reached with Jakarta?

[DMA]

But, would the Anglophone support of the breakaway provinces last, even if an agreement is reached with Jakarta?


It'll be too late by then. These breakaway regions will declare independence & that'll be the end of Indonesia. In many respects it'll be like how the USSR or Yugoslavia broke up. Afterall, Indonesia is really only a modern day Javanese Empire.

[Wendell]

It'll be too late by then. These breakaway regions will declare independence & that'll be the end of Indonesia. In many respects it'll be like how the USSR or Yugoslavia broke up. Afterall, Indonesia is really only a modern day Javanese Empire.
That's true. And, as you pointed out, the Indonesian air force and navy would have been obliterated. Now, would Irian Jaya seek an eventual union with Papua-New Guinea?

[DMA]

That's true. And, as you pointed out, the Indonesian air force and navy would have been obliterated. Now, would Irian Jaya seek an eventual union with Papua-New Guinea?


Now that's a tough one. Eventually I'd doubt it, though, as PNG has enough internal troubles of its own. So Irian Jaya maybe reminded of its recent past with Indonesia & decide it's better to remain independent.

[Wendell]

Now that's a tough one. Eventually I'd doubt it, though, as PNG has enough internal troubles of its own. So Irian Jaya maybe reminded of its recent past with Indonesia & decide it's better to remain independent.
True. Or could their Papuan bonds strenghten both parts. Actually, you're probably right. Now, WI Malaysia gets in on this war?

[DMA]

True. Or could their Papuan bonds strenghten both parts. Actually, you're probably right. Now, WI Malaysia gets in on this war?


There's a chance that the whole island of New Guinea could one day be united, but I doubt it. You never know though.

Well I'd hope Malaysia keeps out of it, although they were not overly friendly towards Australia around this time. Having said that, I'd completely doubt that they'd want to go to war against us, especially if the USA had sided with Australia militarily. Anyway, as it was in the OTL, the Malaysians actually helped us out, in the peacekeeping missions in East Timor in 1999-2000, much to the annoyance of Indonesia. They are also, like Indonesia, a member of ASEAN, so if Malaysia attacked Indonesia they'd be in violation of the non-agression treaty that comes with ASEAN membership.

[Wendell]

There's a chance that the whole island of New Guinea could one day be united, but I doubt it. You never know though.

Well I'd hope Malaysia keeps out of it, although they were not overly friendly towards Australia around this time. Having said that, I'd completely doubt that they'd want to go to war against us, especially if the USA had sided with Australia militarily. Anyway, as it was in the OTL, the Malaysians actually helped us out, in the peacekeeping missions in East Timor in 1999-2000, much to the annoyance of Indonesia. They are also, like Indonesia, a member of ASEAN, so if Malaysia attacked Indonesia they'd be in violation of the non-agression treaty that comes with ASEAN membership.
I knew that they were both ASEAN members, but I had wondered about possible Malay entry into the war on either side. Granted, it's not likely that such a thing would happen.

[DMA]

I knew that they were both ASEAN members, but I had wondered about possible Malay entry into the war on either side. Granted, it's not likely that such a thing would happen.


I can't see how they could. Indonesia attacks first, so out goes any obligation for Malaysia to help Indonesia. And by the time Indonesia needs help, the USA has entered the hostilities against Indonesia.

Furthermore, although Indonesia & Malaysia may both be Islamic, they are far from friendly. They are in competition with each other for everything, not to mention there was a little tiff called the "Confrontation", which Malaysia has never forgotten.

Best bet is Malaysia sits back, watches it all happen, then after Indonesia falls apart, Malaysia tries to establish a sphere of influence over regions such as Sumartra & Kalimantan where, incidently, there's a lot of oil etc.

[PJ Norris]

I only ask cause after reading John Marsden's Tomorrow series in where a huge invasion force swamps the Australian defense in little more than a month, wins after 2 major land battles. The air force is wiped out on the ground, their navy disperses and the US refuses to come to our assistance. Of course the purpose of this is to create a Balkan-like background to the lives of ordinary Aussie kids who go on to fight a guerilla war against the invaders (John is careful never to give a nationality to the invaders).

I've been thinking about it ever since..the Battle of Brisbane, the siege of Newcastle, the Dividing Range Offensive. I've also drawn a giant map of my suburb in preperation for our defense!

[Wendell]

I can't see how they could. Indonesia attacks first, so out goes any obligation for Malaysia to help Indonesia. And by the time Indonesia needs help, the USA has entered the hostilities against Indonesia.

Furthermore, although Indonesia & Malaysia may both be Islamic, they are far from friendly. They are in competition with each other for everything, not to mention there was a little tiff called the "Confrontation", which Malaysia has never forgotten.

Best bet is Malaysia sits back, watches it all happen, then after Indonesia falls apart, Malaysia tries to establish a sphere of influence over regions such as Sumartra & Kalimantan where, incidently, there's a lot of oil etc.
Well see, could Malaysia intervene against Indonesia to "protect the interests and lives of ethnic Malays." Regardless, it could strengthen Malaysia as a regional power.

[DMA]

I only ask cause after reading John Marsden's Tomorrow series in where a huge invasion force swamps the Australian defense in little more than a month, wins after 2 major land battles. The air force is wiped out on the ground, their navy disperses and the US refuses to come to our assistance. Of course the purpose of this is to create a Balkan-like background to the lives of ordinary Aussie kids who go on to fight a guerilla war against the invaders (John is careful never to give a nationality to the invaders).

I've been thinking about it ever since..the Battle of Brisbane, the siege of Newcastle, the Dividing Range Offensive. I've also drawn a giant map of my suburb in preperation for our defense!


Well I can't see how the Indonesians can do any of this to be honest. At most, their army, for instance, is only about 250 000 strong. And most of that is involved in keeping the various rebellions in place without them becoming one huge civil war covering much of the country. Like they couldn't even keep East Timor undercontrol, so I can't see how their army has a chance at conquring all of Australia. And, needless to say, their air force & navy has zero chance in taking on the RAN & RAAF.

Having said all that, the best scenario for Indonesia is in 1976 just after their invasion of East Timor. Not only is Australia in a political mess, thanks to the Dismissal, but our armed forces are very weak as well thanks to Vietnam. We've only got the Adams DDGs as something superior to the Indonesian navy, other than HMAS Melbourne & her A4s. But they'd be in Sydney at the time. Other than that we've got the old Mirage IIIs, but again they're based along the eastern coastline & no where near Darwin. Similarly our subs are based in Sydney. This means the north is open to invasion.

Yet, although I'd say the Indonesians could land a force at Darwin & take it, what's there to take? Dawrin was destroyed at Chrismas 1974. So all they invade is a disaster zone. They have to bring everything with them. Plus their invasion force will not be overly big. They'll need to keep a large force in East Timor, considering the situation there, plus they still have rebellions taking place in Irian Jaya & Ache. So their invasion army will only be about 50 000 at best, limited to light armour & artillery. Meanwhile Australia is forced to react. Although military morale is low after Vietnam, it still has a force of about 30 000 troops, not to mention a similar number of troops who are Vietnam vets. In other words, Australia can field a force of 60 000 well trained troops, half of the veterans, who can take on the 50 000 Indonesians. Australia also has brand new Leapard MBT, over 500 battle tested M-113, and lots of artillery.

So slowly, but surely, the Australians recover from the initial invasion. The Indonesians have to bring everything with them meaning their supply lines are under constant threat. There are limited air & sea battles over the Timor Sea. Although Australia doesn't close the Timor Sea, Indonesia nevertheless loses ships & supplies. At the same time, the Indonesians find that the way south of Darwin is blocked around Adelaide River as per Australia war plans from WW2. A long hard fought battle takes place. After some months, the Indonesians are forced to retreat & finally surrender a few months later in Darwin. The Vietnam veterans, not to mention the Australian military overall, are now heros of the Australian nation, upholding the ethos of the Anzac legend, & the stigma of Vietnam is soon forgotten.

The war ends in stalemate as Australia can't counter-attack Indonesia & they likewise can't do much against Australia. The UN organises a cease-fire etc sometime in mid-1977.

[DMA]

Well see, could Malaysia intervene against Indonesia to "protect the interests and lives of ethnic Malays." Regardless, it could strengthen Malaysia as a regional power.


Oh I certainly agree about the regional power aspect. But like I said, the Malaysians don't have to get involved overly much. Maybe they send in peace keepers after the war into Sumatra & Kalimantan, but that's about all.

Meanwhile, after 9/11, the USA leave the region for other adventures. This means Australia gains complete control over Irian Jaya, Timor, & various islands like Bali & Ambon. Only a "rump" Indonesia remains that's basically Java & the Celebes

[Wendell]

Oh I certainly agree about the regional power aspect. But like I said, the Malaysians don't have to get involved overly much. Maybe they send in peace keepers after the war into Sumatra & Kalimantan, but that's about all.

Meanwhile, after 9/11, the USA leave the region for other adventures. This means Australia gains complete control over Irian Jaya, Timor, & various islands like Bali & Ambon. Only a "rump" Indonesia remains that's basically Java & the Celebes
And the Sunda islands?

[DMA]

And the Sunda islands?


Well they could go either way as could the Malacca's etc.

[JimmyJimJam]

Oh I certainly agree about the regional power aspect. But like I said, the Malaysians don't have to get involved overly much. Maybe they send in peace keepers after the war into Sumatra & Kalimantan, but that's about all.

Meanwhile, after 9/11, the USA leave the region for other adventures. This means Australia gains complete control over Irian Jaya, Timor, & various islands like Bali & Ambon. Only a "rump" Indonesia remains that's basically Java & the Celebes

Yes...America after 9/11 leaves a region in which a large Muslim country directly threatened the interests of the West...hmm.

[Wendell]

I suppose that this scenario would depend on a stronger Indonesia than is the case in OTL?

[PJ Norris]

Change of pace then - let's say Indonesia is as powerful as China?

I've gotta go.

[Wendell]

Change of pace then - let's say Indonesia is as powerful as China?

I've gotta go.
Or, WI Indonesia is a militaristic Islamic Republic?

[DMA]

Yes...America after 9/11 leaves a region in which a large Muslim country directly threatened the interests of the West...hmm.


Well why should the USA stay? The Indonesian attack was launched 2 yearsbefore 9/11! Furthermore it was a pure military attack launched at Australia. The USA only got involved after the fact, & only after Australia destroyed the Indonesian means to further conduct the war. More importantly, peace had been established in the region at least a year before 9/11. On top of all this, Indonesia had split into several different countries, none of which have any intention of fighting anyone, leaving behind a much smaller Indonesia which has surrendered & incapable of any further military activity.

Furthermore, on Indonesia surrendering, Malaysia (another Islamic country BTW), conducts peace keeping operations in the northern region whilst Australia conducts similar operations around the southern regions. As a result, there isn't any reason whatsoever to the USA to have any thing other than a token force in early 2001. Come 9 - 11 - 2001 the USA has far more important things to worry about, like Afghanistan etc, than somewhere like Indonesia which never attacked the USA in the first place. And most certainly never conducted any Islamic terrorist campaign against anyone, let alone the USA. So why would the USA stay considering they weren't even involved in any fighting?

[Dave Howery]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...

[Wendell]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...
Don't forget about the NZ part of ANZUS.

[DMA]

I suppose that this scenario would depend on a stronger Indonesia than is the case in OTL?


Yeah it would, but suggesting that Indonesia is as powerful as China, as PJ Norris said, is complete ASB territory I'm affraid.

The POD thus would have to go back to WW2 & the aftermath. So the Dutch, thus, let the Indonesians have their independence instead of fighting them every step of the way. The infant UN steps in & sends a lot of aid to Indonesia. Similarly, the USA, extends the Marshall Plan to Indonesia as well.

Indonesia, as a result of all this, not only misses out on their War of Independence, but can, with the aid coming in, ensure that it establishes a strong industrial base centred on it's oil resources. As a result, Indonesia begins to blosum economically akin to somewhere like Iran or Saudi Arabia. They also keep out of the "Confrontation" with Malaysia & Sukarno manages the country well.

Suharto, however, still comes to power, in the mid to late 1960s, with an agressive regional policy towards territories like East Timor & Irian Jaya. He inherits, though, a much more powerful country along with a very strong military, especially a navy, with several Adams DDGs, Knox FFs, & Leander FF etc, & an air force consisting of several squadrons of F-4s, A-4s, & F-5s. The army numbers about 250 000 (the same as OTL), but they are much better trained, have better equipment, including a few hundred MBTs like the M48 etc, and have better officers in command.

Australia goes through its owes leading up to 1976. Its Order of Battle isn't all that much different than OTL as Australia is relying more on its ANZUS treaty links more than anything else (pretty much the same as OTL in this period).

So this AH Indonesia attacks East Timor, Australia objects & takes it to the UN. The Indonesians ignore Australia & the UN. Australia moves a destroyer into the Timor region to put pressure on the Indonesians. The RAN ship is sunk, then Indonesia invades Darwin. The only problem is, however, although the Indonesians are well supplied & entrenched in Darwin, they'll still have hassles trying to get past the Australian defence line at Adelaide River. Importantly, though, Australia won't be able to do much about forcing the Indonesian out of Australia. As a result, Australia could loose Darwin & it's surrounds in any negotiated peace. But I can't see how the Indonesians can really make it as far as Brisbane, let alone Sydney.

[DMA]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...


Oh I have my doubts too. This is why I say that the USA only gets involved in this affair after the Australians have defeated the Indonesian attempt to invade. Then the American come along mostly to put pressure on the Indonesians to agree to a cease fire. I don't imagine, though, that USA combat troops will be landed anywhere in Indonesia to fight. Rather, Indonesia implodes. Several thousand US peace keepers may arrive, but only after the fighting between Australia & Indonesia &/or between Indonesians themsleves.

[DMA]

Don't forget about the NZ part of ANZUS.


Yes, they are our Anzac mates the Kiwi's. I'd expect probably a naval vessel, one of their Anzac class, and maybe a battalion of infantry. Something like that.

[Melvin Loh]

If the Indons did decide to invade our country, as you've pointed out, DMA they'd face the same problems the Japs would've had they tried during WWII.

I like your scenarios and info, DMA- just to provide a little more info, during the ET crisis, there were also a few USN vessels in Darwin on military exercise, such as the assault carrier USS BELLEAU WOOD and the cruiser USS MOBILE BAY, and it was revealed afterwards that the latter Aegis cruiser had orders to act as air-defence in case the Indon airforce tried anything to interfere with INTERFET, while No. 75 RAAF sqn's FA-18s were on alert to conduct possible missions against the Indons too. So these US battlewagons would be part of our orbat, too.

[Dave Howery]

DMA> well, I don't think the US would invade Indonesia either. But we would certainly send troops to Australia to help them defend themselves. But the US could send carrier groups to pummel strategic sites in Indonesia, and the USN would scour the ocean of Indonesian ships....

[Fellatio Nelson]

One must also remember that most, if not all, of Australian air space would allow for rapid reinforcement from allied nations, if only of light forces (and more especially Special Forces and 'elite' infantry such as paras and marines).

The East Timor operation was truly multinational, also involving French and UK units (aside from ships, the UK contribution included SBS, RM and Ghurkas, engaged ashore). In the event of this scenario, it would be a near-certainty that the UK would offer immediate tangible military assistance, possibly also France, who maintain limited garrisons in the Pacific region.

I believe the RN maintained a Pacific presence until 1976 (by then a few frigates and a submarine or two).

[jolo]

You're all much too conservative imho. Just imagine a few years of economic boom in Indonesia, a few years of recession in Australia, the US being occupied with sth. else (Iran, Iraq, and another country for instance). Additionally a secret arms development and production program, a secret arms purchasing in countries that can keep such a secret, some secret upgrading, a few official purchases, and so on for Indionesia, while Australia dismantles old weapons and scratches many new developments and systems for a while.

The war starts after Indonesia develops or purchases the bomb, Australia declares itself a republic, and with sth. that lets both sides look bad - like a little skirmish in PNG - so that Australia is kind of isolated at the beginning and Indonesia has some time to find a solution against being overrun by Australia's allies later.

The government and command structure of Indonesia hide in a secret bunker system, most of the Indonesian army is stationed in Australia, and many Australians are transferred to Indonesia. Some Isles get more independence to relieve the troops and to make sure they don't become targets, so that enough of an economy stays intact in case the war turns ugly. All in all, no target for a nuclear counter attack is presented. Even the cities are made uninteresting by evacuating most of the important people and businesses to villages, bunkers, and the likes.

The people are recruited by a work program which officially is designed to make jobless and underemployed people fit for the economy, so that the army increases in size from 250 000 to 5 000 000.

The landing is done covertly by turning a few big ships destined for Australia into troop transporters. Some of the ships are given fake assignments so that officially they come from other countries than Indonesia, so that no-one wonders why 20 or more large ships from Indonesia happen to arrive at the same day in a tense climate.

A fake landing exercise is staged close to northern Australia to divert the Australian troops and test the reaction of the world - if the reaction is within expected limits, the war continues, if the reaction is too strong, the Aussies are allowed to inspect the boats and ships to see that they include only few soldiers and the war is aborted.

After the war starts, all the major military and economic sites of Australia are targeted with rockets. The Australians can counter some of the rockets with patriots, but not anymore after they used them up. The Australians answer by sending their planes to Indonesia, which is the time the soldiers hidden in the ships disembark and occupy all major cities with a harbor. That takes away a lot of the possibilities from Australia to recruit more soldiers, and there is also little air support for the Australian army.

Some Australian ships are sunk, some flee to New Zealand or other places. The Indonesian fleet is hit harder, but still there.

After the dust is settled, the Indonesian army digs in and awaits the international response. It's made easy for Australians to get high paid jobs to make sure there are lots of collaborateurs. The Australians are being given a membership in a federation which treats all states equal and gives christians equal rights to muslims. Australians are motivated to speak to the world demanding no intervention in order to preserve what's left of Indonesia and Australia.

I suppose the world won't listen.

Than we see both Australia and Indonesia bombed to ruins, so that after some time even the Australians would rather be in a federation with Indonesia than let the destruction continue. In the meanwhile, Indonesia leads a war similar to the Vietnam war and Iraq: Hiding in dig outs or among civilians, attacking enemy soldiers in surprise attacks, and retreating. Mining ships, sea lanes, streets and so on used by the enemy. Attacking with torpedo boats, divers, and little subs, with civilian cars, planes, and boats, and so on.

Also, massive amounts of sabotage acts against the enemy countries are attempted - blowing up ships or even whole harbors, burning down storage facilities and other easy targets, and so on.

To divert attention it's also tried to make other countries fight, and not only Muslim countries: North Korea, former Soviet republics, the Balkans, Africa, the Mideast, and so on.

Realistic? not really. Achievable? I think so.

[Grimm Reaper]

PJ, I never heard about that series, tell me more.

How about during the collapse of the USSR we have Indonesia acquire large numbers of RPGs and hand-held SAMs dirt cheap, plus enough to expand the quality/quantity of tanks and heavy weapons? Perhaps 300 T72 tanks and 200 PT76 light tanks? Also perhaps the East German fire sale of frigates and missle boats catches someone's eye?

Indonesia starts simply enough by cramming large numbers of troops into a few merchant ships(50,000?) and head for Darwin. Also they mass against any ships between Darwin and Indonesia. Have another converted ship head for the port nearest Australia's major naval base and have commandos attach limpet mines to every ship they can. Include a few hundred commandos with light vehicles at Darwin in a do or die mission to hit some of Australia's air bases after the war begins.

In all honesty the likelihood of Australia not getting US aid is very poor.

[Cockroach]

The landing is done covertly by turning a few big ships destined for Australia into troop transporters. Some of the ships are given fake assignments so that officially they come from other countries than Indonesia, so that no-one wonders why 20 or more large ships from Indonesia happen to arrive at the same day in a tense climate.
"A few" ships when you plan opperations against all of Australia's significant ports? Remember these ships probably will not be able to carry all that many men despite their size, we are talking about container ships, general cargo ships and maybe an oil tanker or two... i.e. lacking the facilities to carry a large number of men with out any exceptionally obvious modifications.

The Australians answer by sending their planes to Indonesia, which is the time the soldiers hidden in the ships disembark and occupy all major cities with a harbor. That takes away a lot of the possibilities from Australia to recruit more soldiers, and there is also little air support for the Australian army.
This bit is impossible. How the hell do you manage a simultaeous, unopposed series of landings in every Australian port from Darwin to Hobart and Perth? I dare say you will be able to cause lots of chaos and damage but unless you have managed to deliver 30,000-40,000 men to each of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (plus probably 5-6000 to each of the other ports) you don't have a hope in hell of holding.

The people are recruited by a work program which officially is designed to make jobless and underemployed people fit for the economy, so that the army increases in size from 250 000 to 5 000 000.
How does such a large scale build up escape undetected? Despite the 'work program' cover it will be obvious that the training is distinctly military especially if the men remain in the army.

After the war starts, all the major military and economic sites of Australia are targeted with rockets. The Australians can counter some of the rockets with patriots, but not anymore after they used them up.
Again how does Indonesia get a massive number of IRBMs (Intermediate range...) (your average SCUD would be hardpressed to reach the NT let alone Australia's "economic sites of major importance) without calling Australia's attention to them. While a smal number probably could go unnoticed the number needed to do significant damage with conventional warheads is simply too large to hide.

In the meanwhile, Indonesia leads a war similar to the Vietnam war and Iraq: Hiding in dig outs or among civilians, attacking enemy soldiers in surprise attacks, and retreating. Mining ships, sea lanes, streets and so on used by the enemy. Attacking with torpedo boats, divers, and little subs, with civilian cars, planes, and boats, and so on.
A Guerilla (opps! wrong spelling) in unfamiliar terrain with little if any support from the locals? Not a hope in f***ing hell. of this working

[DMA]

If the Indons did decide to invade our country, as you've pointed out, DMA they'd face the same problems the Japs would've had they tried during WWII.

I like your scenarios and info, DMA- just to provide a little more info, during the ET crisis, there were also a few USN vessels in Darwin on military exercise, such as the assault carrier USS BELLEAU WOOD and the cruiser USS MOBILE BAY, and it was revealed afterwards that the latter Aegis cruiser had orders to act as air-defence in case the Indon airforce tried anything to interfere with INTERFET, while No. 75 RAAF sqn's FA-18s were on alert to conduct possible missions against the Indons too. So these US battlewagons would be part of our orbat, too.


Thanks Melvin. I knew the USN had a couple of ships there, but I didn't know the Mobile Bay (or any combat ship) was there. I thought it was just a transport ship or two (or something like that). Having said that, I'll go along with what you've said in any 1999 scenario.

[DMA]

DMA> well, I don't think the US would invade Indonesia either. But we would certainly send troops to Australia to help them defend themselves. But the US could send carrier groups to pummel strategic sites in Indonesia, and the USN would scour the ocean of Indonesian ships....


I agree with all this, but I'd say it'd be more or less over by the time these American assets etc are in place. Indonesia would implode. I'd say a situation would occur akin to what happened to Iraq in 1991 although the various rebellions are successful. Indonesia, or what's left of it, agrees to a cease fire etc before the USA launches any major offensive. Americans troops would be involved in any peacekeeping operations for the next 12 months. They would probably have withdrawn, for the most part, even before 9/11 comes along.

[DMA]

Realistic? not really. Achievable? I think so.


I think Cockroach pretty well stated what had to be said for this ASB adventure. I'll simply state it's both unrealistic and completely unachievable.

If you want Indonesia to be a serious threat to Australia, war wise, you have to go back to the 1945-50 period as I posted earlier. But even then their victory is limited. And, furthermore, the only window I see for Indonesia to achieve some sort of victory is in 1976.

I'd like to add, though, considering I've been rather anti-Indonesian in this thread, a couple of points. First off the Indonesians learnt all the wrong lessons from all the wrong people over the last century. If it wasn't the Dutch, then it was the Japanese, & then it was the Dutch again. Change their WW2 experience, along with the period after it, & Indonesia could have been a model democracy that many in the region could have learnt a lot from. And secondly, in the post 2000 period, Indonesia is slowly learning its potential, now that democracy is finally becoming truly entrenched there (albeit it is far from perfect). I don't expect to see any future serious lows in the Australian/Indonesian relationship like there has been in the past. So forget about any possible future war.

[DMA]

How about during the collapse of the USSR we have Indonesia acquire large numbers of RPGs and hand-held SAMs dirt cheap, plus enough to expand the quality/quantity of tanks and heavy weapons? Perhaps 300 T72 tanks and 200 PT76 light tanks? Also perhaps the East German fire sale of frigates and missle boats catches someone's eye?


Well they did get the East German navy fire sale. Most of the ships proved to be completely unsuitable as they were crap. Many were scraped. None are superior to RAN vessels. It'll simply mean more Indonesian ships on the bottom of the Timor Sea.

The Indonesians have PT-76 light armour now along with AMX-13s, Saladin & Ferret armoured cars along with various APCs. And we all saw how effective T-72s were in Iraq. But all of that is useless sitting in their amphib ships at the bottom of the Timor Sea.


Indonesia starts simply enough by cramming large numbers of troops into a few merchant ships(50,000?) and head for Darwin. Also they mass against any ships between Darwin and Indonesia. Have another converted ship head for the port nearest Australia's major naval base and have commandos attach limpet mines to every ship they can. Include a few hundred commandos with light vehicles at Darwin in a do or die mission to hit some of Australia's air bases after the war begins.


Indonesia doesn't need to grab a large merchantman or two for sea transport. They have quite a large enough amphib fleet to move troops & equipment around.

There isn't actually a single RAN homeport these days. Different story for 1976, but in 1999 there is Sydney, Perth, Darwin, & a smaller naval base at Cairns. Sydney, the larger of the four, would be impossible to take in the manner described, as the base is in Sydney Harbour completely surrounded by the city itself. Perth could be taken, as could Darwin, but the ship would be challenged at sea by the RAN long before it reached port.

To conduct these commando attacks, & air base attacks, you need the equipment & personnel in order to do that. Now sure, an attack on Darwin maybe within the capacities of Indonesia, but forget somewhere like Perth or Sydney. the distances alone make it more or less impossible.


In all honesty the likelihood of Australia not getting US aid is very poor.


It's not that the USA wouldn't help Australia; it's just that the help would be late in coming. By then it's basically all over bar the shouting.

[JLCook]

I find it difficult to believe that Australians would actually believe that the USA would not immediately intervene in a confrontation with Indonesia.

Americans like to stand with our FRIENDS, and our BEST friends are countries like the UK and Australia for example. Canada would also be included, but, since Canada is conveniently located directly adjacent to the USA itself, they are forever totally immune to the threat of ANYONE.

Should an event occur, something li8ke this Indonesian attack on Australia, the US Response would be swift, and lethal to the invader. It can of course, be pointed out that we did not come to the aid of the UK in 1982 when Argentina invaded British territory in the Falklands, but for a fact, the UK did not really NEED our aid and was capable of evicting the trespassers themselves. Of course the UK OOB would have been far more lethal if there had been as much as a single, US Carrier group available, but the UK forces were by themselves, sufficient.

IF we are postulating that the Indonesian forces are successful to the point of placing ground forces on Australian territory and in defeating RAN and RAAF forces deployed to prevent that occurance, the arrival of a US Carrier Attack group would be swift and shortly thereafter, there would be a real shortage of worthwhile "targets" anywhere within Indonesian Territory and the eviction, or possibly ARREST of indonesian groun d forces would swiftly follow.

Americans do not abandon their friends!

[DMA]

I find it difficult to believe that Australians would actually believe that the USA would not immediately intervene in a confrontation with Indonesia.

Americans like to stand with our FRIENDS, and our BEST friends are countries like the UK and Australia for example. Canada would also be included, but, since Canada is conveniently located directly adjacent to the USA itself, they are forever totally immune to the threat of ANYONE.

Should an event occur, something li8ke this Indonesian attack on Australia, the US Response would be swift, and lethal to the invader. It can of course, be pointed out that we did not come to the aid of the UK in 1982 when Argentina invaded British territory in the Falklands, but for a fact, the UK did not really NEED our aid and was capable of evicting the trespassers themselves. Of course the UK OOB would have been far more lethal if there had been as much as a single, US Carrier group available, but the UK forces were by themselves, sufficient.

IF we are postulating that the Indonesian forces are successful to the point of placing ground forces on Australian territory and in defeating RAN and RAAF forces deployed to prevent that occurance, the arrival of a US Carrier Attack group would be swift and shortly thereafter, there would be a real shortage of worthwhile "targets" anywhere within Indonesian Territory and the eviction, or possibly ARREST of indonesian groun d forces would swiftly follow.

Americans do not abandon their friends!


Which part of the following statement don't people understand:


It's not that the USA wouldn't help Australia; it's just that the help would be late in coming. By then it's basically all over bar the shouting.


To put it simply, in helping Australia defend itself, US forces in 1999 have to come from either Japan or the Persian Gulf (or from North America for ground troops). That's at least a two week journey or so in order to get a Carrier Battle Group in theatre. Meanwhile the Battle of the Timor Sea has come and gone. The Indonesian navy is all but sunk, whilst many of her F-16s, F-5s & A-4s have been shot down. For all intents & purposes, Indonesia can no longer conduct military operations against Australia.

As a result, there isn't much of a job the USN can do other than commence a missile & air offensive against Indonesia itself. But far more importantly, now that the Indonesian military has suffered a horrendous defeat, rebellions will explode almost everywhere, meaning the Indoneisan army will be too busy conducting operations against their own people than worry about what Australia &/or the US might do.

Thus the smart option for Australia/US is to sit back & watch Indonesia fall to pieces. Then, after a UN brokered cease-fire has been arranged, send in peace keepers to support the break away regions whilst the "rump" Indonesians settle down & explain themselves.

[Dave Howery]

actually, it would kind of depend on just where the US forces are. If the US isn't distracted by something like Iraq or Afghanistan, then our airborne forces would be there ASAP. We usually have at least one carrier in the vicinity, and it could help pretty quick. Then there are the Marines at.... Guam? Somewhere in the region. Plus, we could send aircraft over pretty damn quick.
OTOH, if the US is bogged down in something like Iraq, then naval forces are all you'll get for a while...

[DMA]

actually, it would kind of depend on just where the US forces are. If the US isn't distracted by something like Iraq or Afghanistan, then our airborne forces would be there ASAP. We usually have at least one carrier in the vicinity, and it could help pretty quick. Then there are the Marines at.... Guam? Somewhere in the region. Plus, we could send aircraft over pretty damn quick.
OTOH, if the US is bogged down in something like Iraq, then naval forces are all you'll get for a while...


All very true. But in the case of Indonesia attacking Australia, realistically we're talking three dates - 1976, 1980, & 1999. So the USA's forces are pretty much free at these times to assist Australia in its defence, although the 1976 period could be dicey thanks to the Vietnam experience.

But let's say the USA immediately sends aid. It's still got to come from a long way away. Sure a few battalions of Airborne troops could be in Darwin within a day or two, but anything else is going to take time. So I wouldn't expect any Carrier Battle Group to arrive for at least two weeks. Likewise any US armoured division will take its time getting here as well. Not only do the troops need to be transported all the way from their current location, but all their equipment will have to be transported as well, as there's no forward deployment of equipment in Australia.

Whatever the case, Australia will have to fight on it's own, thus, for at least two weeks. And in this time is, obviously, when the all important battle will take place.

[Dave Howery]

carriers might be closer than two weeks.... they spend a lot of time around Taiwan. Plus, there is a whole Marine division somewhere in the Pacific... sure it'd take them some time to get there, but they'd be way ahead of everyone else... and they are designed to bring their own equipment. But you're right, Australia would have to do nearly all the work. Still, the US could get some help over there.. you wouldn't be totally alone in it...

[Wendell]

carriers might be closer than two weeks.... they spend a lot of time around Taiwan. Plus, there is a whole Marine division somewhere in the Pacific... sure it'd take them some time to get there, but they'd be way ahead of everyone else... and they are designed to bring their own equipment. But you're right, Australia would have to do nearly all the work. Still, the US could get some help over there.. you wouldn't be totally alone in it...
Don't forget that the Micronesian republics were under U.S. control until 1994.

[DMA]

carriers might be closer than two weeks.... they spend a lot of time around Taiwan. Plus, there is a whole Marine division somewhere in the Pacific... sure it'd take them some time to get there, but they'd be way ahead of everyone else... and they are designed to bring their own equipment. But you're right, Australia would have to do nearly all the work. Still, the US could get some help over there.. you wouldn't be totally alone in it...


Well again it depends upon dates & commitments. It also depends upon who's in the White House. So if it's 1976, there maybe a short delay all things considered. Not only is the the Vietnam experience going to make both US military & politicians think twice, but Nixon is having his own political hassles around this time. 1980 sees Carter as Prez. He will think about things twice, by exploring peaceful alternatives, before committing the US military to helping Australia. 1999 is Clinton & again he may think about things twice before committing the US to a military response.

Now, although I see the US complying with their ANZUS treaty obligations, it still essentially comes down to the Battle of the Timor Sea. Well that will take place before the US can respond at any date, regardless whether they have assests only a week or so away. So Australia will have to deal with this aspect first. I'd say that in 1976 the Indonesians will probably win the Battle of the Timor Sea & get their invasion forces to Darwin with little effort. In 1980 it's an each way bet depending upon how ready Australia is for a war. Whilst in 1999 they'll be defeated long before they can invade.

Importantly for Australia, it's in 1976 & 1980 where the US military can cut off the Indonesian supply lines, in the Timor Sea, & crush their navy & air force in the process. Now for 1976, it'll probably take 2 weeks for this to take place. And there'll be full committment from almost the beginning, meaning Indonesia has to battle it out with the military might of the USA not long after they invade.

But for 1980 it all depends on how much committment Carter wants to give Australia. I see it being piecemeal, althoughthe USA eventually gets dragged into the conflict, even though Carter is reluctant to do so, as he is more inclined to pursue peaceful ways first before committing to major combat operations.

[DMA]

Of course there's another alternative to all this, which would ensure zero help from the USA, and that's if Australia went along with a British plan & attacked Indonesia in the mid 1960s. It was a serious idea from Britian, at the time, because of the "Confrontation" taking in Malaysia which had Indonesia on the one side, with Malaysia, Singapore, UK, Australia & NZ on the other.

[wkwillis]

I think that an Indonesian invasion of Australia is only realistic in the event of some of the below.
1. Major plague that kills off so many people that Australia's industrial potential is no longer superior to Indonesia. Say, 90%.
2. Major climate disturbance that disrupts crops to the extent that Indonesians begin getting in small boats and sailing to Australia in search of food, if only in the form of long pig.
3. Nuclear war that eliminates the entire Australia (and American, and Chinese) military-industrial complexes, possibly combined with 1. and 2. above.
4. Development of advanced RPV weapons technology by China or India and Indonesian purchase of same, followed by Indonesia then sneaking in a few tens of thousands of troops in container ships, subsequently combined with airlifting in a few hundred thousand more. This is workable only if the Australian allies like the US and the UK were to back down from a nuclear threat.

[Othniel]

I think that an Indonesian invasion of Australia is only realistic in the event of some of the below.
1. Major plague that kills off so many people that Australia's industrial potential is no longer superior to Indonesia. Say, 90%.
2. Major climate disturbance that disrupts crops to the extent that Indonesians begin getting in small boats and sailing to Australia in search of food, if only in the form of long pig.
3. Nuclear war that eliminates the entire Australia (and American, and Chinese) military-industrial complexes, possibly combined with 1. and 2. above.
4. Development of advanced RPV weapons technology by China or India and Indonesian purchase of same, followed by Indonesia then sneaking in a few tens of thousands of troops in container ships, subsequently combined with airlifting in a few hundred thousand more. This is workable only if the Australian allies like the US and the UK were to back down from a nuclear threat.
Or that Indonesia is able to match the Australlian Output by increasing the number of factory workers. I think they are the sixith largest population in the world. So here's my scenario;

In 2002 a bloodless nationist coup takes place. This Indonesia brings in survors to scower the islands for resources and they discover a seris of usable mines. This new goverment also improves the economy by gaining more factories. Loose National business laws come into effect.

2012 Brazillian Millitary manufactures find a second market in Indonesia and start millitary build up at an increasing rate but goes unnoticed.

2030 Indonesia is now a threat to Australlian Security if they choose to attack. Indonesia within 50 years will need to expand.

[Syphon]

well, I have severe doubts about the US not honoring it's defense requirements for Australia... US/Australian relations are about as good as it gets. But if Indonesia invades, say, tomorrow, the US might not be able to do much immediately, what with all the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only immediate aid would be carrier forces, which would wipe the air and sea clean of anything Indonesian. This would be a help, but wouldn't get the Indonesians out of Australia. The US would have to take a lot of time to divert forces to Australia from all the places they are committed now. Hopefully, the Aussies will hold out until we get there... with control of the air, they have a good chance of doing so.
If the Indonesians invade while the US isn't distracted by foreign adventures... same scenario, but the US sends forces in a whole lot faster...

Don't forget the the old B-52's! QANTAS Flight crews and conventional bombs or missiles and the Indonesians could be looking at a heap of trouble.

What's 10 or 15 old B-52's from the boneyard in Arizona to the US, the USAF might even give to us for free just so they can trumpet how good for an old bird they are and should be kept in reserve.

[DMA]

I think that an Indonesian invasion of Australia is only realistic in the event of some of the below.
1. Major plague that kills off so many people that Australia's industrial potential is no longer superior to Indonesia. Say, 90%.
2. Major climate disturbance that disrupts crops to the extent that Indonesians begin getting in small boats and sailing to Australia in search of food, if only in the form of long pig.
3. Nuclear war that eliminates the entire Australia (and American, and Chinese) military-industrial complexes, possibly combined with 1. and 2. above.
4. Development of advanced RPV weapons technology by China or India and Indonesian purchase of same, followed by Indonesia then sneaking in a few tens of thousands of troops in container ships, subsequently combined with airlifting in a few hundred thousand more. This is workable only if the Australian allies like the US and the UK were to back down from a nuclear threat.


Indonesia with nuclear weapons... :rolleyes:

[Melvin Loh]

If you want more info on US forces in the Pacific, consult USPACOM's webpage here- http://www.pacom.mil/ and http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/pacom.htm

Dave, as for specifics on US ground forces now, I believe the 3rd Marine Div is still deployed in Okinawa, tog with the 1st MEF at Camp Pendleton outside San Diego, 172nd Inf Bde (Light) at Ft Wainwright, Alaska, elements of 2nd INDIANHEAD and 25th TROPIC LIGHTNING Inf Divs in Hawaii and at Ft Lewis, Washington (who now comprise several IBCTs), tog with 1 Ranger bn at Ft Lewis too (2nd/75th IIRC). The 501st Para Inf, as part of the 172nd, have conducted joint exercises with our airborne guys from 3RAR inear Townsville, too. There's also Andersen AFB on Guam, Elmendorf AFB in Alaska, among others, while the USAF is a frequent visitor to the RAAF bases at Darwin and Katherine, and also to Pine Gap near Alice.

BTW, don't forget also that in 1976 or 1980 the USN still maintains a strong naval and air presence in the Philippines, at Clark AFB and Subic Bay, prior to the evaucation necessitated by Mt Pinatubo erupting in 1990-91. Oh yeah, also the 9th Inf Div (OLD RELIABLES) were based at Ft Lewis until their inactivation in the early 90s- how would these guys, converted to mech inf, have fared in assisting in the defence of Australia ?

DMA, there was talk in Darwin last yr before I left Australia of the US military establishing a forward deployment logistics base in the Top End, which was very controversial.

[Leo Caesius]

Wouldn't it be more likely for Indonesia to pick on someone more practical, say, the Philippines? Imagine if Indonesia decided to "liberate" Mindanao...

[Melvin Loh]

Interesting qn, Leo, but would the Moro extremists of the MILF et al be all that ready to welcome the TNI with open arms, even againt a common infidel enemy in the form of the Philippine defence force, due to the TNI's record of atrocities against other Islamists in Aceh ?

[Leo Caesius]

I think we'd need to see Indonesia fall into the hands of a group like the Jemaah Islamiah, whose connections with MILF (God I love that acronym) are well-established. These groups seek to establish a kind of pan-Malayopolynesian Islamic Emirate called the Dauliah Islamiah Raya, which would comprise Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore. Once that dream has been accomplished, I believe this expansionistic Islamic uber-Indonesia would eventually turn its sights on SEAsia and Australia.

[Melvin Loh]

Heck, I believe that's already AQ's plan for our country, to seize northern Australia as part of the DAR-EL-ISLAM. Well, they're welcome to try...

[Wozza]

What does MILF stand for?

isn't an emirate the AQ plan for EVERY country?

[Melvin Loh]

Leo, MILF is the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, who've ben fighting for an independent Islamic state in the southern Philippines ever since the days of Spanish rule. I believe Black Jack Pershing saw some service against em during the Philippine Insurrection, and of course the modern Philippine army still faces off against the Islamists.

[Leo Caesius]

That's Wozza who wants to know what MILF means. I'm aware of several meanings answering to that acronym, but in the context of Mindanao it's quite obvious which is which. :D

[Wozza]

That's Wozza who wants to know what MILF means. I'm aware of several meanings answering to that acronym, but in the context of Mindanao it's quite obvious which is which. :D

I have always preferred the term "Yummy Mummy" to MILF, personally.
so is it Moro or Mindanao?

[Leo Caesius]

I have always preferred the term "Yummy Mummy" to MILF, personally.
so is it Moro or Mindanao?Moro's the ethnic group. Mindanao is the large southern island in the Philippines where many of them live.

[wkwillis]

POD is 1943, Roosevelt dies, Wallace takes over and is reelected. No assistance for KMT and China takes over all the islands, specifically Taiwan, Hainan, and Hong Kong. No assistance for the French, either, in Vietnam, and the British go broke and give up their colonies like Malaysia and Burma, as well as India.
The US pulls out of the Phillipines, too. No postwar aid for anticommunism. Ditto Korea which is controlled by Russia, so no postwar boost for the economies of the Pacific Rim as in OTL.
The Chinese capitalists go to Indonesia and Indochina and Malaysia and the Phillipines and Burma and Thailand, which form a trade federation, and eventually a nation. Because the nation has the Chinese industrial revolution of our time starts in "Asianesia" and keeps going and going and going.
The Chinese and Indian minorities get industry going and the diversified ethnic and political structure keep military coups from diverting things and political rentseeking competitive instead of centralising, as in China and India on OTL till recently.
Fifty years later they are economically about as big as China is now, about half as populous so their standard of living is fairly high and they can afford an army and airforce and navy worth talking about, and only 150 miles from Australia. Now they could successfully invade. If they wanted to bother. Rich countries can just buy what they want. They don't need to actually march in to the shop when they can get it delivered and sit in front of the TV while they wait.

[Wendell]

I have always preferred the term "Yummy Mummy" to MILF, personally.
so is it Moro or Mindanao?
Actually, an Islamofascist Indonesia interfering in the 'Pines is a good way to get the U.S. involved, but not necesarily Australia-well, maybe not right away...

[DMA]

Indonesian-Australia War 1980-81


The Northern Australian Regiment


http://www.geocities.com/CollegePark/Lab/3771/nt.jpg

11 November 1975 Gough Whitlam Australian Labor Party (ALP) government dismissed by Governor-General John Kerr.

7 December 1975 Indonesia invades East Timor

2 April 1976 Australia officially protests Indonesia’s invasion & annexation of East Timor.

3 January 1979 Australian Foreign Minister Andrew Peacock (Liberal Party) announces that "the Government has decided that although it remains critical of the means by which integration was brought about it would be unrealistic to continue to refuse to recognise de facto that East Timor is part of Indonesia.

6 December 1979 East Timorese refugees protest in Sydney. Many Australian’s express sympathy towards their plight including Peacock.

7 December 1979 East Timorese demonstrate in Dili (East Timor capital). Indonesian troops open fire without warning. 97 protesters are killed, hundreds wounded.

9 December 1979 Word gets out via film after two survivors of the Dili massacre arrive in Darwin Australia. The world is horrified.

FRETLIN, the East Timorese guerrilla army, opens an major offensive in retaliation for the Dili massacre.

10 December 1979 World governments protest to the Indonesian Government. Several recall their ambassadors as a result. Indonesian President Suharto denies that the massacre took place.

Peacock calls Suharto a liar on the evening ABC news.

Later that night, a QANTAS flight landing in Bali (Indonesia) is surrounded by Indonesian troops. It is ordered to turn around & head back to Australia.

FRETLIN ambush an Indonesian army patrol near Dili. The patrol is all but eliminated. Reinforcements manage to repeal FRETLIN & capture one guerrilla.

11 December 1979 Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser (Liberal Party) is furious at Peacock & demands that he apologise to Indonesia.

Before the apology, Indonesia breaks diplomatic relations with Australia. Suharto accuses Australia of deliberately trying undermine Indonesian security by arming FRETLIN. Furthermore, he claims that Australia wants to seize Timor for itself. Proof of these allegations is presented in the form of the captured FRETLIN soldier.

Fraser is forced to support Peacock. The false Indonesian allegations are naturally denied.

The world, however, is not sure who to believe.

Small battles continue throughout East Timor.

12 December 1979 A battle of significant size occurs in the mountains behind Dili. Over 100 Indonesians are killed. FRETLIN withdraw under the cover of night.

CIA quietly approaches the Australian Securities & Intelligence Service (ASIS) about Suharto’s accusations. ASIS convinces CIA that they are false.

13 December 1979 US President Jimmy Carter offers to be mediator between Australia & Indonesia. Australia accepts immediately, there is no reply from Indonesia.

Indonesian army executes 100 E. Timorese villagers in retaliation for the deaths of their soldiers the previous day.

14-15 December 1979 Brief fire fights occur throughout E Timor between FRETLIN & the army.

16 December 1979 FRETLIN opens an office in Darwin. They announce to the media, at the humble opening ceremony, information concerning the village massacre of the 13th.

Carter expresses concern over the village massacre & again offers to mediate.

Indonesia denies the massacre & offers to take journalists to the alleged village. Again they condemn Australia.

Suharto accepts Carter’s offer. Secretly he orders the Indonesian Defence Minister to prepare for possible military action against Australia.

17-18 December 1979 Skirmishes continue in E. Timor.

19 December 1979 Selected journalists are shown the alleged massacred village. None of the journalists are Australians or Americans. They are deliberately shown a different one. The journalists report what they have been shown, knowing no better.

20 December 1979 Carter wishes to start the negotiation process. Suharto defers, saying it would be inconvenient to have the Christmas - New Years period interrupt the negotiations. He suggests a date early in the New Year.

Fraser concurs with Suharto. The meeting is set down for 8 January 1980.

21 - 22 December 1979 Skirmishes continue in E Timor. Several Indonesians are killed. Indonesians retaliate by executing 50 civilians. This event is secretly filmed by a FRETLIN guerrilla & an ABC journalist.

23 December 1979 While trying to smuggle the film out of Timor, the ABC journalist is shot & killed. However the film makes it to Darwin.

ABC TV in Darwin broadcast the film to the world. It is also announced that the ABC journalist, who shot the film, was killed by Indonesian soldiers.

24 December 1979 Peacock condemns the Indonesian army & demands Suharto bring those in the army to justice. There is no reply from Indonesia.

The Indonesian Defence Minister reports to Suharto that an action of considerable size can be mounted against Australia, but expresses concerns of American involvement. Suharto argues that Carter will threaten, but not intervene.

28 December 1979 ASIS starts to identify heavy Indonesian military preparations. They cannot determine the exact reasons, but assume that they are connected with the fighting in E Timor.

31 December 1979 Fighting intensifies on E Timor. ASIS notes that none of the Indonesian military units identified in the military preparations engage in the fighting. They notify Signals Directorate (SD is military intelligence) and they concur. SD notes that the Indonesian units are orientated towards Australia. They issue a joint alert. But due to the holidays, nothing is done.

1-2 January 1980 Fighting continues to grow in E Timor. Almost 500 Indonesians become casualties in the fighting. FRETLIN casualties are lower.

3 January 1980 Fighting continues in E Timor. Fraser puts the armed forces on alert. Reserves are called up as a result. Confusion runs riot as both regulars & reserves are on holidays. The few units that are intact, are sent to Darwin. Some individual personnel are put in improvised units & are likewise flown to Darwin.

4 January 1980 The situation in Darwin resembles a zoo at feeding time. Troops, units, & civilians are thoroughly lost. Above all, no one knows what is going on. Northern Command (NORCOM) organises what it can & the few units that are operational, a mix of regulars & reserves, are given their patrol objectives.

5 January 1980 The Great Skedaddle. Indonesian paratroops & assault troops invade Darwin. The airport & port are taken. Those few troops on guard duty around Darwin are either killed or captured within 15 minutes.

About 1 000 military personnel grab whatever transport they can & flee down the Stuart Highway heading south. Several thousand civilians join The Great Skedaddle as mayhem takes control. No one is in charge. More Indonesian troops arrive & Darwin is firmly secured.

1st AUS Brigade is notified of the disaster & holts its advance at Katherine. They immediately dig in anticipating an Indonesian attack at any moment.

Three platoons have been cut off north of Darwin. None of them are aware of the situation.

The rest of Australia is busy celebrating the New Year summer holidays. Not even Army GHQ in Canberra is aware of the Indonesian invasion.

6 January 1980 Australia wakes up finding it has a war on its hands.

Fraser protests to Suharto. There is no reply.

Fraser alerts the UN. Peacock heads for New York.

1st AUS Brigade starts to collect those troops fleeing from Darwin. Many of the NORCOM troops have to be threatened with death before they obey orders. Morale is low. Civilians only make the situation worse.

The Australian Air Force (RAAF) tries to fly recon missions to Darwin, but encounter Indonesian planes & cannot get through.

Events on East Timor are soon forgotten

7 January 1980 The UN & the world, including the USA, condemns the Indonesian action. However, none offer Australia any military help.

Indonesian patrols reach Katherine. A few shots are exchanged but there are no casualties.

Reinforcements are rushed to Katherine.

8 January 1980 One of the "lost" platoons return to Darwin wherein they discover the Indonesian forces. Fighting soon starts, but the platoon is overwhelmed. 5 of the soldiers manage to escape, the rest are either killed in the battle or captured.

A build up by both forces continues at Katherine.

9 January 1980 The second "lost" reserve platoon (2 platoon, Bravo company, 6RAR - 2B6) heads back to Darwin. They are intercepted by the 5 survivors. Lt Mark Davis (reserve) is at first shocked by the news. Davis decides to search for the remaining "lost" platoon.

Peacock meets with the UN security council. They begin to debate the situation.

Indonesian forces attack the Katherine line. They are unsuccessful.

10 January 1980 The UN security council demands Indonesia to explain themselves. The Indonesians argue that they are defending their country. They claim most of the weapons encountered in E Timor comes directly from the Australian army & presents several examples proving their point. They also produce the captured FRETLIN guerrilla who restates his earlier claims. Peacock counters that the weapons are ones captured in Darwin & that the guerrilla is lying. Peacock is right, but the damage is done.

2B6 come across six stragglers from Darwin. They are ordered to fall in.

The Katherine front is quiet.

11 January 1980 The UN security council votes. USSR & China abstain. UK, USA & France votes in favour of Australia, but the other member's votes are split. Alas Peacock's request misses by one vote.

The Katherine front remains quiet, although serious air combat begins.

12 January 1980 Platoon 2B6 meets up with the other "lost" platoon, 1st platoon, alpha company, 4RAR (1A4), commanded by Lt Peter Grant (regular). Grant & Davis discuss the situation & decide to join forces. First priority is to find a way to communicate with their superiors. They & 66 soldiers, a mix of reserves & regulars, head for Koolpinyah. Sergeant Watkins (reserve), an aboriginal, jokes that their force is now the Northern Australian Regiment (NAR). The nickname sticks.

Fraser expresses his displeasure at the UN decision, & vows to "defend Australia to the last cent, bullet, man & grain of sand!"

Australian volunteers rally to join the military.

13-16 January 1980 Indonesian army attacks in numbers at Katherine. Severe fighting results & casualties are high. The Australian line holds.

17 January 1980 NAR arrives at Koolpinyah & finds food, shelter & above all a working radio. The local civilians appear nonplused by the resent events & are amused to have such visitors.

After going through various radio operators NAR is finally put in contact with 1st Brigade & briefed. They are ordered to hold tight.

22 January 1980 The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) sends a small task force of 2 frigates (HMAS Newcastle , HMAS Torrens) & 2 patrol boats to intercept a convoy heading for Darwin. The convoy is escorted by two small escorts, which are quickly sunk. The 4 convoy transports carrying food & equipment are also sunk.

The Indonesian air force throws everything they can at the RAN ships & all, but one patrol boat, are sunk. The Indonesian air force, however, looses ten A-4 fighters/bombers in the process.

The RAN refuse to conduct any more such operations.

1 February 1980 Indonesian forces, due to radio intercepts, locate the NAR at Koolpinyah. The army sends a unit to investigate.

2 February 1980 NAR pickets inform Grant that the Indonesians are approaching. NAR has organised good defenses since they arrived & ambush the Indonesians. The Indonesians are defeated with heavy casualties. Those that are not captured run off into the countryside to escape.

Lt Grant is seriously wounded in the fight & dies later that night. Davis becomes CO.

3 February 1980 NAR withdraw from Koolpinyah & head for Woolner. Woolner has an airport & Davis hopes that they can be evacuated. With NAR comes most of the local civilians & Indonesian prisoners.

4-6 February 1980 Indonesians attack Katherine in a determined effort. Fighting is intense. Casualties are high. The Australian line holds.

7 February 1980 Indonesians send another force to Koolpinyah to investigate the situation. This force discovers the remains of their earlier force & some old civilians. The Indonesians execute them in retaliation.

Carter tries to start the peace negotiation process. Fraser announces that he is willing, but Indonesia must surrender & pay for the cost of the war. There is no reply from Suharto.

11 February 1980 NAR arrive in Woolner & report to 1st AUS Brigade using the post office radio. They are told no evacuation can occur, but to hold were they are. Hopefully the situation will change in the air & some RAAF Hercules transport planes can evacuate them.

15 February 1980 Three Indonesian helicopters start searching east of Koolpinyah for the NAR. One helicopter flies over Woolner spotting them. Although the Australians shoot at the helicopter, it evades & leaves. Needless to say it reports it findings.

16 February 1980 The three helicopters attack Woolner in the morning. Three Indonesian prisoners & five civilians are killed. Several more are wounded.

An army unit of 112 Indonesians attacks shortly after. However, NAR have prepared for the attack, ambush the Indonesians & counter attack. The Indonesian unit is defeated. Many are killed & wounded. Some Indonesians escape as best they can. Fighting with the NAR are 26 civilians (all aboriginals) who volunteered. Four of them are killed along with two of the soldiers.

Davis decides to withdraw to Point Stuart now that the Indonesians know where they are. With the NAR, most of the civilians & all of the prisoners move too.

17 February 1980 The helicopters return to find Woolner deserted. The troops aboard the helicopters debus & enter the town. The 8 remain elderly inhabitants are executed in retaliation of the previous day’s defeat.

Carter calls for Suharto to begin negotiations. Again there is no reply.

18-20 February 1980 The Indonesian forces attack, in their largest effort yet, the Katherine Line. Battle is desperate & several times the Indonesians break through the first line. Only frightful counterattacks by the Australians repulse the Indonesians.

21 February 1980 An Indonesian helicopter spots the NAR & attacks. Four prisoners & two civilians are killed. However, the helicopter is shot down & all 8 aboard are killed. The helicopter did not communicate its finding.

27 February 1980 NAR arrive in Point Stuart & reports to 1st AUS Brigade via the town radio. The achievements of NAR has started to get attention. Davis is given a combat promotion to captain. Again Davis requests an evacuation & this is organised for March 1.

Point Sturt resembles a refugee camp. Not only are there 60 surviving soldiers & 21 volunteers of the NAR present, but 48 prisoners & 98 civilians are also crammed into a town that usually has no more than 50 people.

28 February 1980 Word reaches Point Stuart, through the aboriginal "grape vine", that the elderly people in Woolmer & Koolpinyah have been executed. Everyone is horrified. Some try to kill the prisoners & need to be restrained. Davis reports this to 1st AUS Brigade who passes the information on.

Fraser that night tells the nation & the world of the massacres.

1 March 1980 The RAAF fly 2 Hercules transport planes into Point Stuart as planned.

Coinciding with the evacuation, the RAAF organise the biggest air offensive in Australian history to date. Air battles take place all over northern Australia. There are casualties on both sides, but the Indonesians loose significant numbers of their F-5 fighters.

On board the Hercules are a troop of SAS, headed by a Captain Morris, with "jeeps". However, there is not enough room for everyone. Davis decides only to send the civilians & prisoners while the NAR stays. Some 70 civilians also remain. The volunteers stay too, after all they are relatives to those Australians executed by the Indonesians.

2 March 1980 The SAS head off by road to confirm & collect evidence of the Indonesian massacres. They are intercepted by a large Indonesian force at Wildman Lagoon. The small SAS force has no chance, but fight like demons. Indonesian casualties are high. One "jeep" with 3 wounded SAS troops, including the driver, manages to flee & makes Point Stuart, thus warning the NAR.

The NAR has no where else to run. The RAAF is overwhelmed with missions & have no spare planes. NAR can not run & leave the civilians behind. It is time to make a stand.

3 March 1980 Word quickly gets out about the NAR as the media interviews the refuges. The massacre is confirmed & it now has a human face. The Indonesian prisoners also provide the face of evil. These images & the refuge’s stories are televised around the world.

The NAR become immortalised as the refuges describe their experiences. Above all the media concentrate on the fact that the NAR "disobeyed" orders by evacuating the refuges & prisoners, while staying behind.

Fraser immediately hammers home the point of the heroism & valour of the Australians, as exemplified by the NAR.

Indonesia denies the massacre allegations & claims that the refuges are actors.

4 March 1980 The Indonesian force that encountered the SAS reach Point Stuart. Battle immediately commences. The Indonesians withdraw after suffering heavy casualties.

6 March 1980 Indonesian reinforcements reach Point Stuart. NAR patrols discover this. Skirmishes continue throughout the day. Davis screams for help, but none is promised. He is ordered to withdraw as best he can. Davis says no & breaks contact with HQ. When Sergeant Waktins hears the news, he says "Yeah well fuck! So what else is new?". "I hear Australia might win in the West Indies", is a mate’s reply. Although they might banter, trying to relieve the tension, no one laughs.

The volunteer "platoon" has increased to 45 in number.

7 March 1980 A huge tropical storm hits Point Stuart in the morning prior to the anticipated Indonesian attack. The Indonesians attack, nonetheless, but they can hardly walk let alone see. The Indonesians are slaughtered & the survivors withdraw to their earlier defensive position.

Word gets out about the desperate & heroic struggle of the NAR at Point Stuart. It appears in the international media everywhere. The Russian military, many of them veterans of WW2, are genuinely impressed & quietly suggest to the Politburo that maybe the USSR should reconsider their policy on this matter.

Carter calls on the UN to intervene.

Peacock seconds Carters request.

8 March 1980 Reinforcements increase the Indonesian force at Point Stuart to about 600 troops. The NAR is outnumbered 6 to 1. Fighting starts & the numbers begin to tell.

At the crucial moment, 10 RAAF F-111 strike aircraft attack the Indonesian force, decimating it in the process. The cavalry has arrived. The stunned Indonesian survivors are taken prisoner by the NAR. It is Australia’s first complete victory.

Later in the day, the RAAF fly into Point Stuart, Hercules, Caribou, & other requisitioned transport aircraft. Reinforcements, the 8th AUS Brigade, has arrived.

8th AUS Brigade commander, Brigadier Chauvel (reserve), promotes Davis to Lt Colonel. Watkins is promoted to Lt.

Chauvel adopts the NAR as the official nickname for the 8th AUS Brigade.

The remaining civilians, volunteer "platoon", wounded & prisoners are evacuated to Townsville.

9 March 1980 The world media runs the story of the Battle of Point Stuart. The evacuees tell of their experiences to national & international audiences.

The NAR becomes a household name throughout Australia.

All the members of the volunteer "platoon" are awarded the Hayden Medal. Lt Grant is awarded the Victoria Cross posthumously. Several more are awarded the Distinguished Service Medal.

At USA’s insistence, the UN security council agrees to reconsider the war.

Peacock once again heads for New York.

10-17 March 1980 Indonesian forces mount their largest offensive at Katherine. The fighting is desperate & savage. Casualties are high. At several points, Indonesian forces break the line. Fighting occurs near Tindal RAAF base where army & air force personnel stop the Indonesian advance.

NAR continues to build up at Point Stuart. Indonesian forces are strained, but a blocking force defends Wildman Lagoon.

Debate goes on at the UN.

18 March 1980 The UN security council votes. Only China abstains, while the UK, France, USA & USSR, along with the majority of the others, all vote for a cease fire, followed by Indonesia’s withdrawal from all Australian territory.

Fraser demands Indonesia to comply. Suharto refuses.

25-31 March 1980 Australian forces counterattack the Tindal Bulge. Included in the attacks are large number of Leopard tanks, used for the first time, in a well planed offensive. Although casualties are high, the Indonesians are pushed back to their original line of March 10.

5 April 1980 The first Australian volunteers start to arrive at the front. Some 15 000 soldiers join the battle hardened veterans.

7 April 1980 The FRETLIN prisoner that the Indonesians used as evidence in the UN debates escapes from the Indonesian UN mission in New York. He pleads for political asylum in the US. He is immediately debriefed by the Americans. He totally admits he was lying earlier in fear of his life. The Americans make this public.

April 10 1980 The UN Security Council passes economic sanctions against Indonesia & once again orders them to withdraw from all Australian territory. Suharto once again refuses

April 11 1980 Carter announces that war equipment will be released to Australia.

Fraser accepts Carter’s offer.

Immediately numerous FA-18s & F-111s are sent to Australia. M-60 tanks & M-113 APCs are loaded aboard ships for transport.

Indonesia protests Carter’s decision & breaks diplomatic relations.

April 12-14 1980 Peacock presents evidence of the Indonesian massacres before the UN.

April 16 1980 NAR patrols make contact with the Indonesian force at Wildman Lagoon. Some shots are exchanged, but there are no casualties.

April 18 1980 UN declares that there is a clear case for the charge of "crimes against humanity" against the Indonesian army.

April 20 1980 RAN orders three of their submarines to commence patrolling the Timor Sea.

April 25 1980 Australia soberly celebrates ANZAC day.

There are no major actions, just the continuing skirmishing.

April 26-May 2 1980 3 Indonesian convoys are intercepted in the Timor Sea. 10 transport ships & two naval escorts are sunk.

35 000 Australian volunteers reach the various fronts.

3-7 May 1980 Australian forces go on the offensive at Katherine. The Indonesian defence is effective. Casualties are high on both sides. The Australian offensive fails.

8 May 1980 NAR attacks Wildman Lagoon. The Indonesians fall back on defensive positions at Mary River. Indonesians rush whatever units that can be spared to Mary River.

9-14 May 1980 The RAN submarines intercept three more Indonesian convoys. All 12 transport ships & two escorts are sunk.

15 May 1980 NAR attacks the Indonesians dug in at Mary River. The Indonesians defend their position gallantly & repeal the Australian attack.

16-18 May 1980 Indonesian Navy conducts a major offensive against the RAN submarines in the Timor Sea. Although three Indonesian ships are sunk, the submarine HMAS Oxley is sunk & the other two submarines withdraw.

21-30 May 1980 Australian forces attack at Katherine in their biggest offensive to date. Although several initial breaches of the Indonesian line occurs, the Indonesians are successful with their counterattacks. The status quo remains.

1 June 1980 The tanks and other equipment arrives from the USA & is rushed to the front lines.

Fraser orders the armed forces to go on the offensive. He demands that progress must be made before 1 July.

2 June 1980 4th AUS Brigade starts to arrive at Point Stuart. They will reinforce NAR.

NAR attacks the Indonesians at Mary River. However, Indonesian reinforcements ensures that they conduct a successful defence.

3-6 June 1980 RAAF conducts a massive air offensive across Northern Australia. The Indonesian loses are significant; only a handful of Indonesian aircraft survive.

7 June 1980 RAN orders three submarines back into the Timor Sea.

8 June 1980 NAR, with 4th AUS Brigade support, attacks Mary River. The fighting is desperate, but the Indonesians manage to repeal the attack.

9-12 June 1980 RAAF conducts continuous strike missions on targets all across Indonesia. 40 F-111s & 35 FA-18s destroy barracks, munition depots, factories, military bases, airports & ports.

15 June 1980 30 F-111s & 10 FA-18s single out Jakarta for strike missions. Among the targets it the Presidential Palace of Suharto. Suharto is not at the Palace & survives the raids.

17 June 1980 RAN submarines intercept a large convoy heading for Darwin. 10 of the transports are sunk.

Suharto orders the Indonesian Navy to close the Timor Sea to the RAN or lose the war.

18-19 June 1980 The Indonesian Fleet sorties everything they can spare and moves 18 ships, of various sizes, into the Timor Sea.

500 Australian artillery pieces begin the biggest artillery barrage in Australia, which is aimed at the Indonesian defences at Katherine.

20 June 1980 Battle of the Timor Sea. RAN submarines report the Indonesian Navy locations. The trap is sprung.

20 F-111s & 20 FA-18s, all armed with Harpoon anti-ship missiles, have been waiting since June 17 for this moment. The RAAF attacks unmolested. The SAM systems of the Indonesian ships prove to be useless. All 18 Indonesian ships are sunk.

The RAN orders the Darwin Task Force into the Timor Sea. It consists of 2 Perth class DDGs, 2 Adelaide class FFGs & one River class FF. The Timor Sea is closed to the Indonesians, not the Australians.

21-25 June 1980 As the artillery barrage continues to pound the Indonesian defences at Katherine, the RAAF begin to pound the Indonesian positions throughout Northern Australia. Mary Creek is singled out for special attention.

26 June 1980 Australia army at Katherine attack the Indonesians. Although the first defence line is taken, the Indonesian reserve line holds.

Suharto orders the Indonesian Navy to send its three submarines into the Timor Sea & sink the Darwin Task Force. The three submarines, which were patrolling off West Timor, head for Beagle Gulf.

Australian 1 Commando Regiment arrives in Perth aboard the transport ship HMAS Tobruk.

27-29 June 1980 The artillery barrage once again starts to pound the Indonesian reserve defence lines at Katherine.

The RAAF concentrates their attacks on Mary River. During this period, the RAAF drops more tonnage of bombs than they did during WW2.

30 June 1980 Indonesia’s Day of Darkness. Indonesia loses two important battles.

Final Battle of Mary River. In the morning, NAR & the 4th Brigade attack the Indonesians at Mary River. The battle is over in 30 minutes as the Indonesian defence collapses. The NAR pursues the few remaining Indonesian units that retreat towards Darwin. Most Indonesians surrender.

Battle of Beagle Gulf. In the afternoon, the HMAS Sydney detects the Indonesian submarines. The helicopters from the HMAS Sydney, HMAS Canberra & HMAS Swan attack the submarines. All three submarines are sunk.

1 July 1980 The Australian forces attack once again at Katherine. 50 000 Australians, involved in the largest battle in Australia, defeat 25 000 Indonesian defenders.

2-3 July 1980 The Indonesians conduct a fighting withdrawal to Pine Creek.

4 July 1980 Lt Colonel Davis, at the head of NAR, enters Darwin. There is no resistance & the few Indonesian forces there surrender. NAR & 4th AUS Brigade spread out & take possession of the city.

Darwin has been more or less destroyed. The few civilians who remained cheer the liberating forces. Lt Watkins asks one of the cheering locals "Is there any cold beer? The last time I had one was well over a month ago, when I was rudely interrupted by an Indonesian shell exploding. What was worse is that they blew up the fucking beer tent! We lost our entire supply."

Word gets to the FRETLIN guerrillas, who have continued with their guerrilla war since January, of the recent Indonesian defeats. Offensive action is planned.

5 July 1980 Fraser calls for the Indonesians to surrender. Suharto refuses.

6-8 July 1980 The Indonesians at Pine Creek withdraw to Adelaide River wherein they discover that Darwin has been taken.

9 July 1980 The Indonesian commander at Adelaide River requests for cease fire, which is granted.

10 July 1980 The Indonesian forces at Adelaide River surrender. 20 000 Indonesian soldiers march into captivity. Northern Australia is liberated.

FRETLIN begin their offensive. The fighting is savage.

11 July 1980 Peacock, Carter & the UN all call for peace talks. There is no reply from Indonesia.

12 July 1980 Fraser arrives in Darwin to see for himself the destruction & to review the troops. Both Davis & Watkins are presented to Fraser. He congratulates them & has a pleasent announcement. Both soldiers are awarded the Victoria Cross.

Singapore offers to hold unofficial peace negotiations & be mediator for the two parties. Fraser accepts the offer & sends Peacock to Singapore.

13 July 1980 Peacock arrives in Singapore & heads off to meet with his opposite number. Unfortunately he is assassinated getting out of the car at the Singapore Foreign Ministry. The Singapore police shoot & kill the assassins. They are identified as Indonesians.

14 July 1980 The CIA announce that the Indonesian assassins belonged to the Indonesian Intelligence Agency.

The world, particularly Singapore & Australia, protest this latest crime. Several more countries recall their ambassadors in protest.

Fraser orders the army to embark the 1 Commando aboard Tobruk & prepare for possible action on Timor.

The RAN patrols off the coast of Timor.

15-31 July 1980 The fighting on E Timor intensifies dramatically. Casualties are in their thousands. This includes several hundred civilians that Indonesians have retaliated against during the fighting.

UN investigators arrive in Northern Australia to investigate the massacres.

Evidence, thanks to contact with the RAN, starts flooding out of E Timor about the battles between the Indonesians & FRETLIN. Furthermore, undeniable evidence of civilian executions in E Timor is also included.

Fraser calls for a UN mandate to enter E Timor, remove the Indonesians & restore law & order.

1 August 1980 The UN security council, after reviewing the compelling evidence, grants the E Timor Independence Mandate.

New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, USA, UK & Fiji all pledge units to the Australian led force.

Suharto announces that E Timor will flow with Australian blood.

2-30 August 1980 The fighting continues in E Timor. The Indonesians are having a hard time of it. They slowly withdraw to the main cities & towns.

The Allies build up their forces in Darwin. USA is criticised when they refuse to send ground troops. Nonetheless their support, in the means of ship & air transport, is greatly appreciated.

31 August 1980 The Allies discover that the Indonesians massacred, a few days previously, an entire village of 200 E Timorese. It is decided that some action must take place immediately.

1 September 1980 Australian 1 Commando, along with other support units, lands on the east coast of Timor. No opposition is met by the Indonesian forces. FRETLIN units make contact.

2-30 September 1980 As more Allied units arrive in E Timor, the Indonesian forces slowly withdraw. Fighting starts. Casualties are high. The Indonesians defend every metre.

FRETLIN units are exhausted. Allied command send them to the rear for rest. Most FRETLIN units, however, refuse to leave the front until it is agreed that they will be the first Allied troops to enter Dili.

1 October 1980 The need for reinforcements becomes a demanding issue for the Allies. Not only have they suffered casualties, but the FRETLIN units withdrawal begins to make itself felt.

NAR & 4th AUS Brigade arrive in E Timor.

5 October 1980 NAR is back in the front line. Lt Colonel Davis commands its 3rd Battalion, while the newly promoted Captain Watkins commands its alpha company.

6-30 October 1980 Heavy fighting continues as the Allies methodically push the Indonesians back. However, it is feared that Suharto might be right when he stated that Australian blood would flow in E Timor.

The UN sanctions are starting to bite Indonesia. Riots start to become a daily occurrance in the major cities.

31 October 1980 Civil war starts in Ambon.

1-20 November 1980 Allied forces continue to push the Indonesians back. Many Indonesians start surrendering. It is noticed that many are out of ammunition & are starving.

Riots continue throughout Indonesia. The civil war spreads from Ambon to other islands.

21-30 November 1980 As the fighting continues, Indonesian generals in Timor begin negotiations for a cease fire. Suharto is not informed of these negotiations.

Police & army units start to crush the rioters across Indonesia. The civil war in Ambon & the nearby islands continues unabated.

1 December 1980 Cease fire goes into effect in Timor. Surrender negotiations commence.

Suharto is furious & calls for the arrest of the Indonesian generals in Timor. They are never arrested.

2-23 December 1980 The cease fire holds, although many FRETLIN units wish to re-enter the fray & attack the Indonesians, killing as many as possible.

Surrender negotiations continue.

The rest of Indonesia is under tight military & police control, except Ambon which continues to burn.

24 December 1980 Indonesian forces surrender in E Timor. The surrender conditions outrage FRETLIN, but saves thousands of casualties. The FRETLIN leadership, nonetheless, abide by the terms.

Suharto is speechless. He has lost the war.

25 December 1980 As per the agreement with the Allies, FRETLIN triumphantly enters Dili followed by the NAR. It is the greatest Christmas present the E Timorese could ever receive. Victory is almost complete.

The civil war in Ambon & the surrounding islands stops for a Christmas cease fire.

1 January 1981 President Carter calls for peace & negotiations with Suharto.

Fraser seconds Carter’s call as does the UN & several other world leaders.

Suharto reluctantly accepts.

Indonesia calms down.

15-20 January 1981 Peace conference takes place in Malaysia.

21 January 1981 The terms of the Peace treaty are made public. A subsequent Settlement treaty is also announced. These are:

The Darwin Peace Treaty 1981 officially ceases hostilities between Indonesia, Australia & the Allies. Indonesia is to pay reparations to the Allies & E Timorese. This will come about by Indonesia surrendering its oil fields in the Timor Sea. The revenue will be shared between the Allies until each nation’s war expenses have been recovered. Sovereignty will then be shared between Australia & E Timor.

The East Timor Treaty 1981 recognises E Timor independence.

1 February 1981 The governments of Indonesia, Australia, E Timor & the Allies sign the two treaties in Canberra.

The original NAR including the volunteer "platoon", dressed in their ANZAC uniforms, is given the honour of being the ceremonial guard at the signing ceremony.

The Indonesian - Australian war is officially over.

[Wendell]

Will this impact the outcome of the 1980 elections in the U.S.?

[AMBOMB]

Similarly their air force is a joke. At best they have about 12 F-16s, all of which are old.

The RAAF has vastly superior aircraft in the F/A 18 & the venerable F-111.
The F-16 is better than the F-18.

[DMA]

The F-16 is better than the F-18.


We're talking 'A' model F-16s in Indonesia, not the far more capable later models that are currently around in the USAF. Furthermore, the Australian F/A-18s are about as far developed as the pre-Super Hornets can be. Besides Australia has about 55 F/A-18s as against 12 Indonesian old F-16s. As a result, the Indonesian F-16s will get slaughtered along with their F-5s comrades.

Of course I'm talking about the current assets of the respective air forces & not 1980. Having said that, in 1980 configuration, the F-16 could not fire the Sparrow (& still can't without a major upgrade, which the Indonesian F-16s haven't had even yet), whilst in 1980 the F/A-18 came with the Sparrow as stock standard (although now it's the AMRAAM instead of the Sparrow). Likewise the F/A-18 can fire Harpoons without any problems, whilst the F-16 can't. The only advantage the F-16 has is top speed & range, neither of which I'd rate overly high considering it's only a slight advantage. By far a greater factor would be the better training & ability of the RAAF pilots over their Indoneisan counterparts.

[DMA]

Will this impact the outcome of the 1980 elections in the U.S.?


To be honest I hadn't even thought about the US Presidential elections. I was concentrating on the Indonesian-Australian aspects.

[PJ Norris]

DMA - I bow to you sir. This is a nicely detailed, enthralling piece of work, with the intensity of what I imagined an invasion would be. Nice work, well done.

PJ, I never heard about that series, tell me more.

Reaper, the Tomorrow When the War Began series, is really good,have a look for it on Amazon or similar. Although it could be classified as a piece of AH, it's more of a war drama, where ordinary kids start a guerilla war around their town eg. blowing up bridges, spying, sabotaging, etc. I thought it was really good. Get it if you can.

[Flocculencio]

Another factor to consider is what Singapore and Malaysia would do. An assault on the major Anglophone power in the region by Indonesia isn't going to make them feel very secure. Indonesia might well find itself under attack from the North.

In fact India might see this as a chance to flex it's muscles and earn brownie points with the West and send Viraat out to menace the Sumatran coast.

[DMA]

DMA - I bow to you sir. This is a nicely detailed, enthralling piece of work, with the intensity of what I imagined an invasion would be. Nice work, well done.


I try. I'm glad you liked it ;)

[DMA]

Another factor to consider is what Singapore and Malaysia would do. An assault on the major Anglophone power in the region by Indonesia isn't going to make them feel very secure. Indonesia might well find itself under attack from the North.

In fact India might see this as a chance to flex it's muscles and earn brownie points with the West and send Viraat out to menace the Sumatran coast.


Again it all depends upon the dates. If it's 1976, although Malaysia & Singapore are not the best of Indoesnian friends, I don't think they're in any position to commence military operations against Indonesia. After that date Malaysian-Australian relations aren't all that great, so I wouldn't expect any help from Malasyia. Singapore is just too small (no offense) to conduct military operations all by itself.

Indian - Australian relations are usually friendly, but they are not military allies. I'd expect India to object to what Indonesia has done, but little else. Above all I'd rule out any military intervention.

[Othniel]

Again it all depends upon the dates. If it's 1976, although Malaysia & Singapore are not the best of Indoesnian friends, I don't think they're in any position to commence military operations against Indonesia. After that date Malaysian-Australian relations aren't all that great, so I wouldn't expect any help from Malasyia. Singapore is just too small (no offense) to conduct military operations all by itself.

Indian - Australian relations are usually friendly, but they are not military allies. I'd expect India to object to what Indonesia has done, but little else. Above all I'd rule out any military intervention.
I can guess what the Malay and Singporean people do.... they prop up food prices to both sides, India might decide to help supply Australlia with lead...

[Wendell]

If India was to be involved, then could it end up winning Bali at War's end, due to religious commonalities?

[Melvin Loh]

DMA, did the RAAF already have FA-18s in 1980 ? i thought the Mirage IIIOs were still retained by our ftr sqns until 1985. What role could No. 76 (?) Sqn at RAAF Butterworth play from Malaysia ? Would KL grant the RAAF rights to operate from their territory, or insist that Malaysian airspace couldn't be used in this conflict ?

What about the role of SOF units like the SASR and OTU, and local Reserve units like NORFORCE ? And does HMAS MELBOURNE also play a role in any of the battles up my way with her A4s and Trackers ?

[Fellatio Nelson]

I thought the main raison d'etre for the ASAS's existence during this period was to use harass any invaders whilst using the size and geography of their nation to best advantage. (I would assume involvement of other specials forces: NZ SAS and SAS, aside from other nations.)

The Mirage III vs. F-16 seems to be base on a false premise. The Indonesians would not have had such aircraft in 1980 - they were still to come into service with NATO allies. Perhaps F-5s, A-4s and USSR relics. If operating from Indonesia, they would have a short time over Australia.

I would assume the Australian pilots and Mirages would be able to deal with these (if not comfortably, given the age and limited weapons of the Mirage). Would, for instance, they have modern AAMs or rely upon older version Sidewinders or French AAMs - which had an appalling hit ration.

The RAN, however, would have significant problems in countering even a smallish airstrike by elderly A-4s etc. unless under air cover. Look at the probs encountered in the FI in 1982 and apply that kind of scenario (minus the exocets and often enclosed seaspaces, but taking into account far smaller Australian ship types and numbers). The Australian AAW aboard all but three ships then consisted of AAA and Seacat SAMs.

[Fellatio Nelson]

I thought the main raison d'etre for the ASAS's existence during this period was to use harass any invaders whilst using the size and geography of their nation to best advantage. (I would assume involvement of other specials forces: NZ SAS and SAS, aside from other nations.)

The Mirage III vs. F-16 seems to be base on a false premise. The Indonesians would not have had such aircraft in 1980 - they were still to come into service with NATO allies. Perhaps F-5s, A-4s and USSR relics. If operating from Indonesia, they would have a short time over Australia.

I would assume the Australian pilots and Mirages would be able to deal with these (if not comfortably, given the age and limited weapons of the Mirage). Would, for instance, they have modern AAMs or rely upon older version Sidewinders or French AAMs - which had an appalling hit ratio.

The RAN, however, would have significant problems in countering even a smallish airstrike by elderly A-4s etc. unless under air cover. Look at the probs encountered in the FI in 1982 and apply that kind of scenario (minus the exocets and often enclosed seaspaces, but taking into account far smaller Australian ship types and numbers). The Australian AAW aboard all but three ships then consisted of AAA and Seacat SAMs.

[Melvin Loh]

Oh heck, what about also if Sukarno decided to inade at some point in the early or mid-1960s ? Say during the West Papua crisis or the Confrontation, if the Indons decided to use their brand new Ilyushin Il-28 lt bmrs and WWII leftover B25 Mitchells and P51 Mustangs to bomb Darwin again ? Would Australia still get involved in Vietnam ?

[Tyr]

The USA would definatly help if Australia needed it. Most of the world would help actually via the UN. Directly invading other nations is a big no-no these days.
As it is though Indonesia would be getting no help and the superior Australian navy and airforce would utterly decimate their invasion then start blasting pieces off Indonesia itself que insurgants rising up and declaring independance all over the country.

[Flocculencio]

If India was to be involved, then could it end up winning Bali at War's end, due to religious commonalities?

Highly unlikely. Balinese Hinduism is quite different from the various Indian Hindu traditions although it shares the same sources. I don't think there's much of a perception of commonality between the actual people of Bali and India at this point in time.

[Fellatio Nelson]

Oh heck, what about also if Sukarno decided to inade at some point in the early or mid-1960s ? Say during the West Papua crisis or the Confrontation, if the Indons decided to use their brand new Ilyushin Il-28 lt bmrs and WWII leftover B25 Mitchells and P51 Mustangs to bomb Darwin again ? Would Australia still get involved in Vietnam ?

Whilst there was a huge Royal Navy, RAF and British Army presence in the region, in addition to any others? There were additional garrisons in Singapore and Malaya and ANZUK ensured close working co-operation and swift reinforcement. At this time the RN still had its large carriers carrying jet fighters and bombers.

[DMA]

DMA, did the RAAF already have FA-18s in 1980 ? i thought the Mirage IIIOs were still retained by our ftr sqns until 1985. What role could No. 76 (?) Sqn at RAAF Butterworth play from Malaysia ? Would KL grant the RAAF rights to operate from their territory, or insist that Malaysian airspace couldn't be used in this conflict ?


The RAAF F/A-18s (in the AH) come directly from the USA as war materiel released by Carter. In the OTL, it was around 1981 when the first ones arrived. Although I don't actually say it, yes the RAAF in this AH would have had to rely on the Mirage IIIs until the F/A-18s arrive. I would dare say that the Butterworth RAAF squadron would be stuck there. I'd highly doubt that Malaysia would give it's permission for it to be involved in combat operations or anything else for that matter.


What about the role of SOF units like the SASR and OTU, and local Reserve units like NORFORCE ? And does HMAS MELBOURNE also play a role in any of the battles up my way with her A4s and Trackers ?


NORFORCE etc are all caught up in The Great Skedaddle. Only 3 platoons are left to defend northern Australia after the Indonesian invasion. The survivors of these 3 platoons eventually form the Northern Australia Regiment.

I had ruled out any involvement by HMAS Melbourne as in 1980 she's too old & vulnerable. Besides she's in Sydney at the time of the invasion. Furthermore, the loss of HMAS Newcastle & HMAS Torrens on 22 January 1980 ensures that the RAN won't risk the loss of HMAS Melbourne.

[DMA]

I thought the main raison d'etre for the ASAS's existence during this period was to use harass any invaders whilst using the size and geography of their nation to best advantage. (I would assume involvement of other specials forces: NZ SAS and SAS, aside from other nations.)


In my AH the ASAS do exactly this, although I only mention their involvement in one instance. But expect them conducting various operations where required.



The Mirage III vs. F-16 seems to be base on a false premise. The Indonesians would not have had such aircraft in 1980 - they were still to come into service with NATO allies. Perhaps F-5s, A-4s and USSR relics. If operating from Indonesia, they would have a short time over Australia.


You're right about the F-16s. But then again, in the AH, I don't mention that the Indonesians as having F-16s. I mention F-5s & A-4s.


I would assume the Australian pilots and Mirages would be able to deal with these (if not comfortably, given the age and limited weapons of the Mirage). Would, for instance, they have modern AAMs or rely upon older version Sidewinders or French AAMs - which had an appalling hit ration.


In 1980, when the war starts, they would have the older Sidewinders & French Matras & all that. Carter, though, releases war materiel to the Australians. Included would be 1980 vintage Sidewinders & Sparrows along with the F/A-18s, F-111s, M-60 tanks, & M113 APCs etc.


The RAN, however, would have significant problems in countering even a smallish airstrike by elderly A-4s etc. unless under air cover. Look at the probs encountered in the FI in 1982 and apply that kind of scenario (minus the exocets and often enclosed seaspaces, but taking into account far smaller Australian ship types and numbers). The Australian AAW aboard all but three ships then consisted of AAA and Seacat SAMs.


The RAN at this point in time would only have two frigates left armed with Seacats etc. These were HMAS Torrens & HMAS Swan. The 9 remaining main combat vessels, the 3 DDGs & 6 FFGs, are copies of the USN Adams & Perry classes. These, although still not in the same league as any Aegis SAM equiped ship, are still handy with their SM-1 SAM system. Furthermore, I'd argue that the SM-1 is better than the RN Sea Dart. As such, the Indonesians would have a far tougher time against the RAN ships than the Argentines had against the RN ones.

[DMA]

Oh heck, what about also if Sukarno decided to inade at some point in the early or mid-1960s ? Say during the West Papua crisis or the Confrontation, if the Indons decided to use their brand new Ilyushin Il-28 lt bmrs and WWII leftover B25 Mitchells and P51 Mustangs to bomb Darwin again ? Would Australia still get involved in Vietnam ?


All indications seem to show that Sukarno, in the mid to late 1960s wanted to avoid conflict with anyone (other than his fellow Indonesians) & was more intent upon establishing his power base.

Now if Sukarno did try something stupid, during this time, I'd dare say Australia would severely limit it's involvement in Vietnam as trouble is far closer to home.

[Fellatio Nelson]

Hi DMA

Confusion over posts - some, not yours - appear to be mentioning F-16s at this early date. Thread seems to be darting between any date between 1960-2000!

With regard to the RAN in 1980, unless you are AH-ing the production dates etc. of warships, only 1 OHP would have been in service in 1980 alongside 3 CFA DDGs (assuming none in refit, their being 10yrs+ old at that point), armed with the SM-1 - although I thought the latter were still armed with the old Tartar SAM until modified?

Otherwise, aside from Melbourne: 2 1950s vintage Daring Class destroyers armed with guns and AAA and 6 River Class Rothesay/Leander derivatives with twin guns and Seacat SAM.

The O Boats were very good - aside from slow transit speed - and would feature heavily, especially if all (some) had been modified to carry Harpoon and Mk48. With their skilled crews they could almost certainly avoid all Indo. attempts to track them. I assume most would be operating in the area as tensions increased. Also useful in landing ASAS raids - perhaps on airfields, a la Rio Gallegos in Argentina.

I believe there was also an RN World Cruise going on around this time - happens every so often, which could see them in force in the region.

[DMA]

Hi DMA

Confusion over posts - some, not yours - appear to be mentioning F-16s at this early date. Thread seems to be darting between any date between 1960-2000!


Yeah it is getting confusing ... lol

Basically I see three dates when an Indonesian-Australian war could have taken place. One is 1976; 1980; & finally 1999.


With regard to the RAN in 1980, unless you are AH-ing the production dates etc. of warships, only 1 OHP would have been in service in 1980 alongside 3 CFA DDGs (assuming none in refit, their being 10yrs+ old at that point), armed with the SM-1 - although I thought the latter were still armed with the old Tartar SAM until modified?


Oh yes, naughty me. If memory serves both HMAS Adelaide & HMAS Canberra were operational in 1980. I did bring the other four Perrys forward early for 1980 (eg HMAS Newcastle wasn't even under construction yet), but I kind of deliberately did that. So I did play around with a bit of AHing. In the OTL, though, the last Perry entered service in 1994! So what's 14 years here or there? :D

I do believe that the RAN Adams DDGs got their SM-1 update in the mid 1970s. But yes, before then they had Tartar.


Otherwise, aside from Melbourne: 2 1950s vintage Daring Class destroyers armed with guns and AAA and 6 River Class Rothesay/Leander derivatives with twin guns and Seacat SAM.


I think you'll find that only 2 of the River Class were still operational in 1980. If memory serves two were actually paid off, whilst the other two were rusting in Sydney Harbour "in reserve" as they say. You're right, though, about the two old Daring Class DDs & HMAS Melbourne (one of the old Darings is actually at the Maritime Museum at Darling Harbour, Sydney). They would have been sent to the bottom of the Timor Sea should they have ventured into that region during the war.


The O Boats were very good - aside from slow transit speed - and would feature heavily, especially if all (some) had been modified to carry Harpoon and Mk48. With their skilled crews they could almost certainly avoid all Indo. attempts to track them. I assume most would be operating in the area as tensions increased. Also useful in landing ASAS raids - perhaps on airfields, a la Rio Gallegos in Argentina.


The RAN Oberons were considered the best around. They always out performed all others. They even gave the USN a run for their money on numerous occasions. And yes they are busy in numerous operations, especially anti-shipping (as per the story).

Pity about the Collins... :o


I believe there was also an RN World Cruise going on around this time - happens every so often, which could see them in force in the region.


They could have been around, but I limited the AH to basically Indonesian & Australian actions. And in 1980 politics, both regional & global, this was most likely at first, although granted other nations eventually get involved as the war goes on.

[Wendell]

Highly unlikely. Balinese Hinduism is quite different from the various Indian Hindu traditions although it shares the same sources. I don't think there's much of a perception of commonality between the actual people of Bali and India at this point in time.
That's a very good point.

[wkwillis]

Maybe a war over the "Act Free Of Choice" when the Indonesians annexed Western New Guinea? Or the Australians annex western New Guinea from the Dutch in 1945 in return for some foreign aid money, or in 1953 when the Netherlands had that huge flood?
Then Indonesia invades Australia to get it back after they develop the huge Ertsburg Mine and it kicks in just in time for the gold price rise and the commodity boom in general? Especially if it is adaquately capitalized and is larger and more efficient from the start.
With the Ok Tedi gold rich oxidised upper layer and Panguna running at the same time, New Guinea would be coining money. I wonder what else would be developed when all that was going on? Mining companies tend to pile on when some area is hot.

[BlackMage]

Fantastic work, DMA; you've outdone yourself.

Of course, with the question of the Indonesian-Australian war there is the question of What Comes Next?. I mean, it's a general consensus here that Indonesia, in the long run, could not win a war with Australia, but what if they manage to hold onto the territory they conquer? In DMA's treatment, for one, they manage to take Darwin, one of the most famous cities in the country; if they managed to hold onto it and the surrounding territory, life would be very different. If they just took Darwin in a lightning raid and dedicated their forces to defending it, then it would be very hard to get back. And, once Darwin is gone, our force projection abilities in the Timor Sea get severely compromised.

So what if Indonesia occupies Darwin and, despite our best efforts, keep it? I think it's about all of Australia they could hold in the long run, but the ramifications of that alone would be devastating. How would they run it? How would Australians react? What would the future implications be for both countries, especially in areas like multiculturalism?

It's a very interesting study. I'm beginning to get ideas for a new AH...

[BlackMage]

Well, here's a rough timeline; I know it's lacking, but it's my first AH.

I know it's only peripherally related, but it's close enough that I don't think it merits a new thread. If any of you think it deserves a new thread, please let me know.

Province of Darwin

1980
-Indonesia invades Australia in January. In a lightning strike, they take Darwin. Their advance is halted by Australian troops at Katherine.
-International condemnation of the Indonesian invasion comes to no avail, as the Australian line comes under continuous assault. Indonesian troops are shipped in to reinforce Darwin. Eventually, they fall back to reinforce Darwin.
-Australian troops advance towards Darwin, but are forced backwards by strong Indonesian resistance.
-In July, it becomes apparent that Darwin cannot be taken without extreme bloodshed. Prime Minister Fraser, believing that a prolonged war would lead to immense human suffering both for the armed forces and for the people of Darwin, sues for peace.
-Australia is forced to accept a humiliating peace. Darwin will remain under Indonesian control, but the war will end. East Timor is not mentioned. Darwin and the surrounding districts to Pine Creek, with a total population of 100, 000 people, become the Province of South Irian, under military rule. Disgusted, the Country Party break off their coalition with the Liberal Party. Fraser is almost universally condemned.
-In October, Fraser’s Liberal Party suffers electoral Armageddon. The party loses 40 seats, including Fraser’s. Bill Hayden, who campaigned on an anti-Asian, anti-Indonesian platform, becomes Prime Minister. Doug Anthony, leader of the Country Party, becomes Opposition Leader. John Howard becomes Leader of the Liberal Party, who are effectively marginalised as a political force.
-Protests in Darwin over the Indonesian occupation are brutally put down by the military.

1981
-Australia Day is marked by demonstrations for the retaking of Darwin. War is still too near for Prime Minister Hayden to comment, although he is privately understood to be sympathetic.
-The first Governor of South Irian is inaugurated. Although political elections have been postponed indefinitely, he promises to listen to the concerns of the people. Violence is still widespread, and clashes between occupying forces and the residents of Darwin are common.
-Prime Minister Hayden condemns Fraser’s policies of multiculturalism, blaming them for the loss of Darwin. He calls for a ‘return to the old Australia, of unity in tradition, culture and blood’. Within days of his speech, a wave of attacks begins on Asian immigrant communities.
-Cabramatta Riots. In one of Australia’s biggest ethnic enclaves, white Australians begin a campaign of terror against Asians. Leaders across Asia condemn the riots. While Prime Minister Hayden condemns the violence, he does not condemn their motives.
-Asian immigration to Australia slows to a trickle.
-A widespread program of Indonesian immigration to Darwin begins.
-Indonesian troops begin building up in Darwin. A second war is feared.

1982
-On January 1, the anniversary of Federation in 1901, Prime Minister Hayden calls for ‘the unification of Australia’. This is interpreted as a call for the return of Darwin. Relations between Indonesia and Australia take a turn for the worse.
-In Darwin, protest marches take place for the restoration of democracy.
-In response to the marches, local council elections are held in Darwin. The Country Liberal Party and Labor Party candidates condemn the Indonesian invasion; a local independent, Jack Sullivan, supports an end to the violence against Indonesian authorities.
-Sullivan wins, against accusations of Indonesian vote rigging. Within days of his election, riots break out across Darwin. Sullivan’s house is firebombed, and he is assassinated by a local militant.
-Indonesian forces are called into Darwin from East Timor to restore order. Reports of civilian massacres reach the outside world. Hayden stands up troops on the Darwin border, threatening to invade to end the violence. War seems imminent.
-On April 17th, 16 days after the election, Australian forces invade Darwin. They proceed rapidly into the city, but face stiff resistance. Indonesian forces fight a guerrilla war against the Australian forces, while their lines through the centre of Darwin hold. Soon, the entire city is aflame, divided roughly in half along Bagot Road. Darwin Airport is destroyed by the retreating Indonesian forces.
-The Australian invasion is condemned internationally as violation of the Australia-Indonesia treaty. Even the USA turn on Hayden, who has been facing increasing international pressure in recent years for his anti-immigrant rhetoric.
-Finally, facing complete international isolation, Australia is forced to withdraw from Darwin. Indonesia reasserts its authority. The city, and the surrounding countryside, has suffered massive damage. Thousands of residents are dead, as many by the Australian bombing as by Indonesian forces. The population of South Irian is now 110, 000, with an Indonesian population of about 10%.
-In the resulting peace treaty, Australia is forced to pay war reparations and to accept Indonesia as the legitimate governing body of Darwin.
-While leaving the peace talks, Hayden is assassinated by an anti-Indonesian militant. He has become the victim of the race hatred he himself stirred up. After a bitter leadership contest between Lionel Bowen and Bob Hawke, Bowen becomes Prime Minister, Hawke’s former multicultural beliefs counting against him. Bowen is a reliable but unspectacular Prime Minister, appearing rather colourless compared to the growing popularity of Opposition Leader Doug Anthony.
-The reconstruction of Darwin begins. The Governor of South Irian sponsors large-scale migration to speed construction, and soon the Indonesian population has tripled to 30, 000. The new Darwin begins to take on Indonesian architectural influences.

[DMA]

Hi BlackMage.

Not a bad attempt with your TL. I've just got a couple of observations/questions:

Why doesn't Australia get any international help? There is ANZUS afterall. Now that may not mean US troops on the ground, but I would have thought that the US would support Australia in the UN & at least with war materiel.

The next is why would Australia agree to a peace treaty which allows Indonesia to keep the territory taken through military force? As such, even in terms of the UN, Australia would have a legitimate & legal right to resort to military action to counter the illegal actions of Indonesia.

Also, how does the Indonesian air force keep the RAAF at bay? Likewise, how does the Indonesian navy keep the RAN at bay (espcially the Oberon subs)?

Doug Anthony wouldn't become Opposition Leader as the Country/National Party wouldn't become the senior party in the Coalition. Thus whoever is Liberal Party leader automatically becomes Opposition Leader, as I'd find it very hard to believe that the Liberals are slaughtered that badly in the elections. And even if they are, the CountryParty/Nationals would suffered any election backlash just as much as the Liberals.

In the Australian counter-invasion in 1982, why should the world condemn Australia, when Indonesia has already violated Australian sovereign territory in the first place through military conquest? If anything, the world leaders, including the UN, would view Australia attack as a legitimate use of force in evicting an invader.

[birdy]

does indonesia have logistical capacity for this?

[Unknown]

Will this impact the outcome of the 1980 elections in the U.S.?

I suspect that, even with the U.S. involvement in the Australian-Indonesian War, Carter would lose the election for several reasons:

1. The economy was in bad shape in 1980, which, historically, does not help an incumbent.

2. There was the Iran hostage crisis.

Basically, I think that Carter, with his involvement in the Australian-Indonesian war, would do better in the 1980 general election, he will still lose to Reagan by a wide margin for the reasons I mentioned above (and I'm a Democrat (shows 2000 Gore and 2004 Kerry votes)).

[CalBear]

A couple of posters have mentioned this, nevertheless...

The United States NAVY!
USAF!
USMC!
U.S. ARMY!

Sorry, had to done.

I'm not sure that Australia would need the assistance, but it would be there in a snap. Bombers from Guam (and if early enough IOTL, from Clark AFB). Seventh Fleet carriers & NUCLEAR subs. Marine Amphibious Units. 101th & 82nd Airborne. The bombers could be hitting targets in 8-9 HOURS. Airborne forces boots on the ground in 48 Hours. Fleet & Marine units inside a week

Pick any date after 1945 (the fleet was a touch busy '42-'45), and the wrath of God would drop on Indonesia. The farther forward in time you go, the worse it is. Australia is possibly the staunchest ally the United States has (all due respect to the UK). Name the conflict since 1900 and its always the same U.S. is there, Australia is right next to us. "Same Blood, Same Mud" means something to Americans.

Attack Australia? You don't get just the supurb Australian forces, you get a lot more. Think you pick a fight with 17 million people? You undercounted by 300 million.

Mess with the Eagle (or the Eagles friends) and you get the claw.:mad:

[wkwillis]

Not sure. After the way Churchill screwed over Australia in WWII, it's conceivable that Bush Jr. could abandon Australia now. Maybe it's resentment that this group of exconvicts avoided the racial conflicts that America experienced by not bringing in black slaves from New Guinea to grow sugar cane. Or maybe some Australian stole his girlfriend. I have no clue what was bugging Churchill, and I don't know what's bugging Jr.

[Fellatio Nelson]

I am not sure whether this is set nowadays (near enough) or in
c.1980? :confused:

[birdy]

i suspect that what was bugging churchill was fighting three enemies and just barely having enough to take two of them. i agree we should have sent australia more help but what did we have

[CalBear]

Not sure. After the way Churchill screwed over Australia in WWII, it's conceivable that Bush Jr. could abandon Australia now. Maybe it's resentment that this group of exconvicts avoided the racial conflicts that America experienced by not bringing in black slaves from New Guinea to grow sugar cane. Or maybe some Australian stole his girlfriend. I have no clue what was bugging Churchill, and I don't know what's bugging Jr.

You don't quite get it. Abandoning Australia would be beyond political suicide, it would destroy your political legacy. There a few countries that this appies to, Australia is one of them. There are a lot of countries that the U.S. will assist because we have treaty obligations, financial ties, or "enlightened self interest". Then there are the countries that the U.S will assist because the American people would not allow it to be otherwise; these are a much smaller group, these are countries that the "man on the street" see as real friends. Australia is right at the top of this list. As I said in my initial post - "Same Blood, Same Mud", similar beliefs about the way this world should work, basic good feelings, hell, kangaroos. Americans (at least the ones I know) see Australians as kindered spirts (although the vegimite thing is beyond us :) ). I'm not sure how Australians see Americans, but I know that invading Australia would be seen by Americans as an attack on our kin.

That would be A VERY bad thing.

[DMA]

I'm not sure how Australians see Americans, but I know that invading Australia would be seen by Americans as an attack on our kin.


As always such things aren't as simple as Australians love Americans or Australians hate Americans. It also depends upon the period in question. Taking into account the dates of both mine & BlackMage's timelines, 1980ish, the average man in the street didn't think much of the USA due to the rumours being spread around Australia about possible American involvement in the Whitlam Dismissal. Needless to say, the Labor Party didn't think much of the USA either. So if Indonesia is to take advantage of any chilling of Australia-American relations, the period of late 1975-1985ish is the period to do it.

Today, of course, it's a completely different story, & there's basically three camps of thought in Australia towards the USA:

1) There's probably about 20% of the population who view the USA as the most dangerous country on Earth & we should distance ourselves from America as far as possible.

2) A similar percentage of the population consider the USA is better than Vegemite & that we should more or less join the USA.

3) The rest of Australians prefer to keep our independence, whilst ensuring to keep a close relationship with the USA in military & economic matters. Having said that, Australia should reserve the right to say "no" if & when required.

[birdy]

hello- er i just looked on wikipedia and it tells me that the Indonesian military's primary role since the Malayan confrontation has been insuring internal security. could they invade Australia without an earlier POD?.

[CalBear]

As always such things aren't as simple as Australians love Americans or Australians hate Americans. It also depends upon the period in question. Taking into account the dates of both mine & BlackMage's timelines, 1980ish, the average man in the street didn't think much of the USA due to the rumours being spread around Australia about possible American involvement in the Whitlam Dismissal. Needless to say, the Labor Party didn't think much of the USA either. So if Indonesia is to take advantage of any chilling of Australia-American relations, the period of late 1975-1985ish is the period to do it.

Today, of course, it's a completely different story, & there's basically three camps of thought in Australia towards the USA:

1) There's probably about 20% of the population who view the USA as the most dangerous country on Earth & we should distance ourselves from America as far as possible.

2) A similar percentage of the population consider the USA is better than Vegemite & that we should more or less join the USA.

3) The rest of Australians prefer to keep our independence, whilst ensuring to keep a close relationship with the USA in military & economic matters. Having said that, Australia should reserve the right to say "no" if & when required.

Interesting. I'm sure I could find some Americans who have negative ideas about Australia (probably having to do with the fact that you secure your borders), but overall it would be a small percentage.

Can't argue with the right to say no. I feel that way about more than half of the things the current U.S. Administration does myself.

[DMA]

hello- er i just looked on wikipedia and it tells me that the Indonesian military's primary role since the Malayan confrontation has been insuring internal security. could they invade Australia without an earlier POD?.


Before 1980? Probably not as there's too much internal turmoil going on - especially in the aftermath of Indonesia's invasion of East Timor. Prior to that you've got the mess of Sukarno's coup. Plus the usual rebellions going on in Ache, West New Guinea, Molaccas, etc...

Equipment wise there's no reason why Indonesia couldn't pull off a surprise attack on Australia's north-west region. Their amphib warfare capacity is quite handy with about 20 such ships with about 15 frigates - most of which are Leander class variants.

Troop numbers aren't overly a problem as the Indonesian army has well over 200 000.

Don't forget Australia has significantly fewer numbers in the army (about 50 000 troops), & a smaller navy. Only the RAAF would enjoy superior numbers in 1980: a mix of about 100 Mirage IIIs & 24 F-111s, along with 100 or so Macchi trainer/light strike aircraft. Furthermore, the F/A-18 is about to come into service. About the only other advantage Australia would have would be in armour, as the Australian Army have 100 Leopards, whilst the Indonesians have no MBT.

The problem for Indonesia is keeping their conquests. The RAN & RAAF can blockade the Indonesian invasion force in northern Australia ensuring they get no supplies. At the right moment, say a month or so, the Australian Army attacks the Indonesians supported by the RAAF. It's then just a matter of time before the Indonesians surrender.

So for the Indonesians to actually win such a conflict, they need a far stronger airforce, not to mention a navy which is capable of surface to surface, SAM, & anti-sub operations.

[DMA]

Interesting. I'm sure I could find some Americans who have negative ideas about Australia (probably having to do with the fact that you secure your borders), but overall it would be a small percentage.

Can't argue with the right to say no. I feel that way about more than half of the things the current U.S. Administration does myself.


Well there's several reasons why some Australians think very negative of the USA. Some of it is a mistrust of America since the colonial days; others see the USA as an evil empire (which isn't just an Australian thing need I say); for others its their ethnic background; others remember the Whitlam Dismissal; others see American culture replacing Australian culture; others resent the American "deputy sherrif" attitude the current Australian govt has; & goodness knows what else. It's rather complicated as these things are.

To me, & the majority of Australians, I think it is foolish to think that 20 million Australians can live in neutral isolation in a world that can be very unfriendly at times. As a result we need friends, especially someone like the USA, with which we have shared many experiences during the 20th century & needless to say in this current one. And that's despite that fact that we're both democracies which share similar fundamentals which are "self-evident" so to speak.

[black angel]

um any one talked about the Commonwealth of Nations? Australia is a member of that don't know if that counts for much

[DMA]

um any talked about the Commonwealth of Nations? Australia is a member of that don't if that counts for much


Commonwealth of Nations is merely a "gentleman's club". It has zero military powers. In fact Commonwealth members are even gone to war against each other on many occasions - most notably Pakistan & India.

[Thande]

most notably Pakistan & India.
Although you are right about the Commonwealth, this specific example - I thought Pakistan had left the Commonwealth before the wars with India, and only rejoined a while after they had finished?

[DMA]

Although you are right about the Commonwealth, this specific example - I thought Pakistan had left the Commonwealth before the wars with India, and only rejoined a while after they had finished?


Oh who knows. Keeping track of who's in & out of the Commonwealth is like watching paint dry. But regardless whether they're in or out, it still hasn't stopped half of the Commonwealth fighting the other half at some point in their history ;)

[Thande]

But regardless whether they're in or out, it still hasn't stopped half of the Commonwealth fighting the other half at some point in their history

I suppose Africa is the obvious example.

What's REALLY depressing is not that the Commonwealth is like this, but that the Americans almost universally think it actually counts for something. And then you don't want to tell them that it doesn't. :(

[LordKalvan]

Quite interesting ideas, DMA. I'm a late-comer to this thread, but I've a couple of questions for you:

After Vietnam, USA always considered Indonesia as the main bulwark to a Communist overtaking of S-E Asia. Which is likely to be the main reason for which there was no real American opposition to the take-over in east Timor. In 1979, the shah's regime was toppled by Khomeini. The Russians are still in Afghanistan. While there are treaty obligations between the USA and Australia I am not 100% sure that Carter will be willing/ready to antagonise Sukarno.
I've seen no reference to UK. Still Thatcher is PM since 1979 (and in 1982 will be ready to go to war over the Falklands). 1980 is maybe a tad too early, but there will be a huge commotion in UK over the invasion and I would not consider it absolutely impossible that Thatcher dispatches some contingent to Australia. Which, seen from another POV, might butterfly the Falkland war of 1982 (the Argentines see before hand that the British still have a capacity of military projection)

[Imajin]

What's REALLY depressing is not that the Commonwealth is like this, but that the Americans almost universally think it actually counts for something. And then you don't want to tell them that it doesn't. :(
We don't want to admit that the Brits have lost the Empire... I mean, it makes the ARW look much better if half the world is still under the iron-heeled boot, and as you guys are probably our closest ally, a world-spanning Empire (even if disguised as a "Commonwealth") looks better than an island (and some occupied territory on another one)...

[DMA]

I suppose Africa is the obvious example.


Very much so. Don't forget too, even today, there's the usual artillery duel & rifle shot across the border in Kashmir between India & Pakistan.


What's REALLY depressing is not that the Commonwealth is like this, but that the Americans almost universally think it actually counts for something. And then you don't want to tell them that it doesn't. :(


Well it does matter. Australia gets to win the Commonwealth Games once every 4 years! :D

[Thande]

We don't want to admit that the Brits have lost the Empire... I mean, it makes the ARW look much better if half the world is still under the iron-heeled boot, and as you guys are probably our closest ally, a world-spanning Empire (even if disguised as a "Commonwealth") looks better than an island (and some occupied territory on another one)...

That's pretty much what I meant...

And will people please stop calling NI occupied territory? Occupied territory does not elect MPs! (even if half of them refuse to take up their seats)

The British Empire, as it is, now consists of the Falklands, South Georgia, Ascension, Pitcairn (or is that Australian?) a few islands in the Caribbean and Diego Garcia. And Gibraltar. And bits of Cyprus. I may have missed a few out.

[DMA]

Quite interesting ideas, DMA. I'm a late-comer to this thread, but I've a couple of questions for you:

After Vietnam, USA always considered Indonesia as the main bulwark to a Communist overtaking of S-E Asia. Which is likely to be the main reason for which there was no real American opposition to the take-over in east Timor. In 1979, the shah's regime was toppled by Khomeini. The Russians are still in Afghanistan. While there are treaty obligations between the USA and Australia I am not 100% sure that Carter will be willing/ready to antagonise Sukarno.


This is basically the approach which I took. Hence Carter is far more interested in peace negotiations between Australia & Indonesia prior to the war. And even when war started, again Carter kept the US forces out. It was only later that he sends war materiel to Australia. But that's all.


I've seen no reference to UK. Still Thatcher is PM since 1979 (and in 1982 will be ready to go to war over the Falklands). 1980 is maybe a tad too early, but there will be a huge commotion in UK over the invasion and I would not consider it absolutely impossible that Thatcher dispatches some contingent to Australia. Which, seen from another POV, might butterfly the Falkland war of 1982 (the Argentines see before hand that the British still have a capacity of military projection)



Well I took the decision to view this from Australia's POV. The UK has been, more or less, irrelevant in this part of the world since the Suez Crisis in the mid 1950s. So any thought of significant help from the UK I dismissed. Instead, & ever since WWII, Australia has looked towards the USA for military help. However, due to the circumstances discussed above, Australia was more or less on its own to fight the war (except in the case of US aid in the form of war equipment).

[DMA]

The British Empire, as it is, now consists of the Falklands, South Georgia, Ascension, Pitcairn (or is that Australian?) a few islands in the Caribbean and Diego Garcia. And Gibraltar. And bits of Cyprus. I may have missed a few out.


Pitcairn is NZ from memory. You maybe thinking of Norfolk Island, where the original Pitcairners were sent at one point. Norfolk Island is Australian territory.

EDIT: I just looked up wikipedia (hey why not? ;) ) & it says Pitcairn is still British. It says:

The Governor of the Pitcairn Islands is the British High Commissioner to New Zealand

Source: wikipedia - Pitcairn Island (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitcairn_Island)

[Imajin]

Pitcairn is NZ from memory. You maybe thinking of Norfolk Island, where the original Pitcairners were sent at one point. Norfolk Island is Australian territory.
You guys can't even keep your imperial remnants straight...

[DMA]

You guys can't even keep your imperial remnants straight...


Oh I'm happy for Australia not to have any imperial interests.

[BlackMage]

Hi BlackMage.

Not a bad attempt with your TL. I've just got a couple of observations/questions:

Thanks for your comments, DMA.

Why doesn't Australia get any international help? There is ANZUS afterall. Now that may not mean US troops on the ground, but I would have thought that the US would support Australia in the UN & at least with war materiel.

Well, I assume we would get materiel from America, but even that wouldn't change all that much. Remember, Indonesia practices conscription and has a huge population; if they chose to fortify Darwin and had enough time, taking it would be very, very difficult. Not impossible, but it'd certainly be a Pyrrhic victory.

The next is why would Australia agree to a peace treaty which allows Indonesia to keep the territory taken through military force? As such, even in terms of the UN, Australia would have a legitimate & legal right to resort to military action to counter the illegal actions of Indonesia.

Well, what else can we do? Indonesia isn't going to lose Darwin without a fight that would make Gallipoli look like a pub brawl. A prolonged war would accomplish nothing except massive loss of life on both sides. It's really the lesser evil.

Also, how does the Indonesian air force keep the RAAF at bay? Likewise, how does the Indonesian navy keep the RAN at bay (espcially the Oberon subs)?

Well, I'm presuming bigger losses than in your scenario. Perhaps surprise bombing raids on the Northern Australian air bases? Also, Darwin is about all they manage to hold; bombing their positions in Darwin would just kill hundreds or thousands of Australians. Even so, I'm still presuming that they would take a lot of kills in the air. The main problem to us taking Darwin is the strong ground defence.

Doug Anthony wouldn't become Opposition Leader as the Country/National Party wouldn't become the senior party in the Coalition. Thus whoever is Liberal Party leader automatically becomes Opposition Leader, as I'd find it very hard to believe that the Liberals are slaughtered that badly in the elections. And even if they are, the CountryParty/Nationals would suffered any election backlash just as much as the Liberals.

I mention that they break off the Coalition. Menzies sold pig iron to Japan, and that pretty much killed off the UAP; losing Darwin would be complete electoral suicide. Besides, Fraser's multiculturalism, good as it appears in retrospect, would not be seen to kindly with Indonesian troops on Australian soil. [/quote]

In the Australian counter-invasion in 1982, why should the world condemn Australia, when Indonesia has already violated Australian sovereign territory in the first place through military conquest? If anything, the world leaders, including the UN, would view Australia attack as a legitimate use of force in evicting an invader.

We signed a peace treaty with them because Fraser didn't tens of thousands of deaths on his hands. We broke the treaty. The whole scenario is very contrived, I know, and I'll try to fix that; I'm just playing around with the idea of an Indonesian Darwin, and how that'd turn out.

Once again, thank you for your comments.

[DMA]

Thanks for your comments, DMA.


No worries. I just hope I don't come across as being too harsh :)



Well, I assume we would get materiel from America, but even that wouldn't change all that much. Remember, Indonesia practices conscription and has a huge population; if they chose to fortify Darwin and had enough time, taking it would be very, very difficult. Not impossible, but it'd certainly be a Pyrrhic victory.


Well a couple of things - the first is the actual size of the Indonesian army. It's actually only about 250 000 troops - many of whom are busy fighting local insurrections. So whatever they land in Darwin will be around 80 000 all up. Furthermore, when the RAAF & RAN cut off their supply lines, well the Indonesians will be basically starved out.



Well, what else can we do? Indonesia isn't going to lose Darwin without a fight that would make Gallipoli look like a pub brawl. A prolonged war would accomplish nothing except massive loss of life on both sides. It's really the lesser evil.


As I hinted above, it's all about strategy. Cut off the Indonesian supply lines, which isn't difficult, & it becomes a siege. That plays completely into Australia's hands. Then a nasty frontline offensive is all that is needed to destroy the Indonesian invaders. It'll be nothing like Gallipoli. It'll be more like D-Day.


Well, I'm presuming bigger losses than in your scenario. Perhaps surprise bombing raids on the Northern Australian air bases? Also, Darwin is about all they manage to hold; bombing their positions in Darwin would just kill hundreds or thousands of Australians. Even so, I'm still presuming that they would take a lot of kills in the air. The main problem to us taking Darwin is the strong ground defence.


Except you're missing a fundamental aspect of Australian deployments. Other than NorForce, most Australian air force & naval asserts won't be within Indonesian range. They'll be either around Perth & Sydney for the RAN, & the RAAF will be spread out from Perth, Adeliade, Sydney & Brisbane. Yes, some assests could be lost in a surprise attack, but the losses won't be substancial. Victory favours Australia in any long term war.


I mention that they break off the Coalition. Menzies sold pig iron to Japan, and that pretty much killed off the UAP; losing Darwin would be complete electoral suicide. Besides, Fraser's multiculturalism, good as it appears in retrospect, would not be seen to kindly with Indonesian troops on Australian soil.


Sorry I must have missed that - my bad - even though I find that hard to accept. Either way, the biggest hassle for the Country Party has always been the fact that they're viewed as country people by most Australian voters. If voters are going to desert the Liberals, then they'll vote Labor. I grant you, though, that the Liberals could fall apart akin to the UAP.

And I completely doubt that Fraser would have accepted the Indonesian invaders as anything but that. He would pursue the war indefinitely (& this is coming from an ALP member). Don't confuse Fraser's strong anti-racist stance with military weakness, come such a military attack upon Australia. Australian civilian casualities, caused by an Australian counter-attack, would be understood as a hazard of war by the majority of Australians & blamed on the Indonesian invaders.


We signed a peace treaty with them because Fraser didn't tens of thousands of deaths on his hands. We broke the treaty. The whole scenario is very contrived, I know, and I'll try to fix that; I'm just playing around with the idea of an Indonesian Darwin, and how that'd turn out.


Australia would never sign such a treaty. As someone who'd be alive & probably a cadet in the Australian Army around this time, I'd lead my cadet unit against the Indonesian army alone if I had to. Furthermore, you'd find 1 million other Australians doing the same thing regardless who the enemy was. It'd be on for young & old!

Anyways, if you want an Indonesian Darwin, there's no need for a war. Just have more refugees arrive to make Darwin their home (it wouldn't be too hard all things considered). That'd be much easier than having a war ;)


Once again, thank you for your comments.


I hope my comments have been helpful. Don't take it any other way than me trying to give advise. Above all keep up the writing! :)

[BlackMage]

No worries. I just hope I don't come across as being too harsh :)
I hope my comments have been helpful. Don't take it any other way than me trying to give advise. Above all keep up the writing! :)

Oh, don't worry about it. I found your comments, all of them, very helpful, and thank you very much for your prompt response. My whole timeline was built on a misconception; I personally thought the Indonesian army was much, much bigger. Thank you very much for your knowledgeable comments.

Believe it or not, the whole thing came out of my despair about Australian party politics (!), and actually predated this thread. Party politics has always been my true passion (I'm also a member of our late, lamented ALP), and so I was wondering how the parties would react to an invasion and occupation. It just snowballed from there, without much regard to military fact, I'm afraid. Even so, I think the idea of the political party structure breaking down is very interesting. So you can see why some of my conclusions are quite contrived.

Anyway, here's the conclusion to my original timeline. I know it's built on a number of false premises, but I think where it leads is certainly an intriguing universe. Sorry for taking the thread off track.

1983
-On the 5th of March, Bowen calls a double dissolution election. The election is fought over the issue of Darwin, with Anthony calling for its retaking and Bowen for peaceful relations to be restored with Indonesia. The election ends with no party in majority. The leader of the Liberal Party, John Howard, who opposes another war, forms a coalition with the Labor Party to enable them to stay in power. Anthony resigns, to be replaced by Ian Sinclair.
-Gradually, life begins to return to normal in Darwin. For the first time, flights to and from Australia are allowed. Although many Darwiners leave, many more decide to stay.
-Australia has become a bitter, racist nation, where many Australians still have not accepted the loss of Darwin. Gradually, however, Australians begin to accept that it is lost. Racist sentiment is still high, however, and discriminatory laws become commonplace. ‘Multicultural’ is the new profanity.
-The population of South Irian continues to rise. By the end of 1983, the population is at 150 000, with about 50 000 Indonesian soldiers and civilians.
-Talks begin about the demilitarisation of South Irian.
-South Irian becomes a haven for the ‘boat people’, refugees from the Cambodian Civil War, as Australia flatly refuses them. Cambodian influences become apparent in Darwin life.

1984
-The first Indonesian troops begin leaving Darwin.
-In Australia, a double dissolution election is called, after the coalition between Bowen and Howard breaks down. In the resulting election, the Liberal Party, already weakened by the shadow of Fraser and by the effective usurpation of their policies by the Labor Party, is reduced to a rump of a few seats. This is the last time it will be an effective force in Australian politics. Bowen gains a majority in his own right.
-Islam begins to become popular amongst the Aboriginal community in Darwin.
-In South Irian, four years after the invasion, provincial and gubernatorial elections are held between the Golkar, United Development and Democratic Parties for the first time. Campaigning encourages Australian residents to vote, but turnout is low. Due to The Golkar Party wins in a landslide, with the opposition parties disorganised and gaining little traction. An Australian collaborator, Steven Carlyle, is set up as the Golkar Party Chief Minister in the South Irian Legislative Assembly to attempt to give the election some legitimacy in the eyes of Australians, and to echo the pre-war political state. However, he has little real power, with most decisions still resting in the hands of the Indonesian governor.

1985
-The Darwin Mosque opens; built in Indonesian style, the interior bears homage to Aboriginal culture. The opening is heralded as a sign of greater cooperation between the disparate communities.
-For the first time, South Irian reaches a 50-50 split between Australians and non-Australians, with a population of almost 200 000. The non-Australian population is mostly Indonesian, but with a large Indochinese minority.
-Joh Bjelke-Peterson, Premier of Queensland, resigns and goes into federal politics, contesting a safe National seat. Within hours of his election, Sinclair is forced by overwhelming demand to resign in favour of Bjelke-Peterson, who has achieved lasting notoriety in Australia for his virulent anti-Indonesian stance.

1986
-Joh Bjelke-Peterson publishes his work, Australia for Australians, which takes a virulent anti-foreigner stance. His popularity skyrockets in Australia. Seeking to capitalise on this, Prime Minister Bowen blocks non-British immigration.
-Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser lead a joint protest against Bowen’s actions, with Whitlam stating, ‘We have become a new South Africa’. Police break up the march.
-In Darwin, Australia for Australians is banned by Indonesian authorities. A black market in its sale soon becomes widespread, however.
-After a four-year lull, violence begins again against Indonesian authorities, fuelled by the release of Bjelke-Peterson’s book.
-In the Australian Senate, the Australian Democrats join with the National Party to block supply, forcing an election which it is obvious Bjelke-Peterson will win. Bowen accepts defeat and calls the election. He loses in a landslide.
-Prime Minister Bjelke-Peterson begins a program of military build up, reintroducing conscription and beginning massive arms purchases. It becomes obvious that renewed war is inevitable.
-Migration to Darwin continues, with South Irian now 60% non-Australian. The architecture of Darwin, its only major city, is a fusion of Australian, Indonesian and Cambodian styles; the population is about 220 000. GDP per capita is much lower than the Australian average, but higher than the Indonesian average.
-Bjelke-Peterson calls upon Suharto to return Darwin; Suharto refuses. War is imminent.
-On November 11, Remembrance Day, a peaceful protest by the Australian population escalates into a riot, which ends with the Darwin Liberation Front (DLF), a pro-Australian organisation, taking control of much of Darwin. Indonesian troops begin an immediate bloody crackdown. The DLF appeals to Bjelke-Peterson for aid. He does so, invading South Irian. The scattered Indonesian troops are massacred. Within days, Australian forces control the city. Carlyle flees to Indonesia.
-The invasion, and Bjelke-Peterson’s racist populist policies, is widely condemned. Sanctions against Australia are discussed on the UN floor. However, American backing for Bjelke-Peterson’s Americophilic stance ensures they account to nothing.
-In occupied Darwin, the Indonesian population rises in revolt. The Australian forces begin a brutal crackdown on resistance.
-Indonesian troops attempt to retake Darwin, but are unsuccessful. The Australian Defence Force, with Bjelke-Peterson’s new military hardware, launches bombing raids as far as Jakarta. The antiquated Indonesian defence forces are no match.
-The government of South Irian in exile is set up in Jakarta.

1987
-Darwin is reincorporated into the Northern Territory. Suharto refuses to accept the loss, and continues to consider the provincial government in exile as the true government. However, overwhelming Australian military superiority forces him to call for a ceasefire.

Aftermath:
Australia remains a racist country, with a much decreased international standing. Darwin, although free, has a very large Indonesian population, which would face extreme prejudice in the new Australia. Also, the provincial government in exile would continue to be a thorn in Australia’s side, with many of Darwin’s 130 000 non-Australians seeing it as the true government.
In short, a very interesting universe.

[DMA]

Oh, don't worry about it. I found your comments, all of them, very helpful, and thank you very much for your prompt response. My whole timeline was built on a misconception; I personally thought the Indonesian army was much, much bigger. Thank you very much for your knowledgeable comments.


Oh that's ok. Just do a bit of research here & there & you'll be fine. Alas you've probably met one of the few people on this planet who knows a few things about the Indonesian military (I have a MA minoring in Indonesian history etc) ;) To be honest, though, most people wouldn't know... :D


Believe it or not, the whole thing came out of my despair about Australian party politics (!), and actually predated this thread. Party politics has always been my true passion (I'm also a member of our late, lamented ALP), and so I was wondering how the parties would react to an invasion and occupation. It just snowballed from there, without much regard to military fact, I'm afraid. Even so, I think the idea of the political party structure breaking down is very interesting. So you can see why some of my conclusions are quite contrived.


Yes, Australian politics is like that these days: it seems to be the case in many democracies at the moment, but in 1980 I like to think that there were actually major differences between political parties - that they actually stood for something different. I'd dare say that's why the ALP isn't the Federal government anymore - as they don't seem like an alternative to the current one.


Anyway, here's the conclusion to my original timeline. I know it's built on a number of false premises, but I think where it leads is certainly an intriguing universe. Sorry for taking the thread off track.


Oh don't worry about "taking the thread off track" as we're experts of it here. :D I think the record stands at one post before the we're discussing anything but the original topic ... ;)


1983
-On the 5th of March, Bowen calls a double dissolution election. The election is fought over the issue of Darwin, with Anthony calling for its retaking and Bowen for peaceful relations to be restored with Indonesia. The election ends with no party in majority. The leader of the Liberal Party, John Howard, who opposes another war, forms a coalition with the Labor Party to enable them to stay in power. Anthony resigns, to be replaced by Ian Sinclair.
-Gradually, life begins to return to normal in Darwin. For the first time, flights to and from Australia are allowed. Although many Darwiners leave, many more decide to stay.
-Australia has become a bitter, racist nation, where many Australians still have not accepted the loss of Darwin. Gradually, however, Australians begin to accept that it is lost. Racist sentiment is still high, however, and discriminatory laws become commonplace. ‘Multicultural’ is the new profanity.
-The population of South Irian continues to rise. By the end of 1983, the population is at 150 000, with about 50 000 Indonesian soldiers and civilians.
-Talks begin about the demilitarisation of South Irian.
-South Irian becomes a haven for the ‘boat people’, refugees from the Cambodian Civil War, as Australia flatly refuses them. Cambodian influences become apparent in Darwin life.

1984
-The first Indonesian troops begin leaving Darwin.
-In Australia, a double dissolution election is called, after the coalition between Bowen and Howard breaks down. In the resulting election, the Liberal Party, already weakened by the shadow of Fraser and by the effective usurpation of their policies by the Labor Party, is reduced to a rump of a few seats. This is the last time it will be an effective force in Australian politics. Bowen gains a majority in his own right.
-Islam begins to become popular amongst the Aboriginal community in Darwin.
-In South Irian, four years after the invasion, provincial and gubernatorial elections are held between the Golkar, United Development and Democratic Parties for the first time. Campaigning encourages Australian residents to vote, but turnout is low. Due to The Golkar Party wins in a landslide, with the opposition parties disorganised and gaining little traction. An Australian collaborator, Steven Carlyle, is set up as the Golkar Party Chief Minister in the South Irian Legislative Assembly to attempt to give the election some legitimacy in the eyes of Australians, and to echo the pre-war political state. However, he has little real power, with most decisions still resting in the hands of the Indonesian governor.

1985
-The Darwin Mosque opens; built in Indonesian style, the interior bears homage to Aboriginal culture. The opening is heralded as a sign of greater cooperation between the disparate communities.
-For the first time, South Irian reaches a 50-50 split between Australians and non-Australians, with a population of almost 200 000. The non-Australian population is mostly Indonesian, but with a large Indochinese minority.
-Joh Bjelke-Peterson, Premier of Queensland, resigns and goes into federal politics, contesting a safe National seat. Within hours of his election, Sinclair is forced by overwhelming demand to resign in favour of Bjelke-Peterson, who has achieved lasting notoriety in Australia for his virulent anti-Indonesian stance.

1986
-Joh Bjelke-Peterson publishes his work, Australia for Australians, which takes a virulent anti-foreigner stance. His popularity skyrockets in Australia. Seeking to capitalise on this, Prime Minister Bowen blocks non-British immigration.
-Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser lead a joint protest against Bowen’s actions, with Whitlam stating, ‘We have become a new South Africa’. Police break up the march.
-In Darwin, Australia for Australians is banned by Indonesian authorities. A black market in its sale soon becomes widespread, however.
-After a four-year lull, violence begins again against Indonesian authorities, fuelled by the release of Bjelke-Peterson’s book.
-In the Australian Senate, the Australian Democrats join with the National Party to block supply, forcing an election which it is obvious Bjelke-Peterson will win. Bowen accepts defeat and calls the election. He loses in a landslide.
-Prime Minister Bjelke-Peterson begins a program of military build up, reintroducing conscription and beginning massive arms purchases. It becomes obvious that renewed war is inevitable.
-Migration to Darwin continues, with South Irian now 60% non-Australian. The architecture of Darwin, its only major city, is a fusion of Australian, Indonesian and Cambodian styles; the population is about 220 000. GDP per capita is much lower than the Australian average, but higher than the Indonesian average.
-Bjelke-Peterson calls upon Suharto to return Darwin; Suharto refuses. War is imminent.
-On November 11, Remembrance Day, a peaceful protest by the Australian population escalates into a riot, which ends with the Darwin Liberation Front (DLF), a pro-Australian organisation, taking control of much of Darwin. Indonesian troops begin an immediate bloody crackdown. The DLF appeals to Bjelke-Peterson for aid. He does so, invading South Irian. The scattered Indonesian troops are massacred. Within days, Australian forces control the city. Carlyle flees to Indonesia.
-The invasion, and Bjelke-Peterson’s racist populist policies, is widely condemned. Sanctions against Australia are discussed on the UN floor. However, American backing for Bjelke-Peterson’s Americophilic stance ensures they account to nothing.
-In occupied Darwin, the Indonesian population rises in revolt. The Australian forces begin a brutal crackdown on resistance.
-Indonesian troops attempt to retake Darwin, but are unsuccessful. The Australian Defence Force, with Bjelke-Peterson’s new military hardware, launches bombing raids as far as Jakarta. The antiquated Indonesian defence forces are no match.
-The government of South Irian in exile is set up in Jakarta.

1987
-Darwin is reincorporated into the Northern Territory. Suharto refuses to accept the loss, and continues to consider the provincial government in exile as the true government. However, overwhelming Australian military superiority forces him to call for a ceasefire.

Aftermath:
Australia remains a racist country, with a much decreased international standing. Darwin, although free, has a very large Indonesian population, which would face extreme prejudice in the new Australia. Also, the provincial government in exile would continue to be a thorn in Australia’s side, with many of Darwin’s 130 000 non-Australians seeing it as the true government.
In short, a very interesting universe.


Good old Sir Joh eh? I've personally repeatedly killed him off in some nasty riot in one AH or another ;)

[wkwillis]

CalBear
You are not a Republican wannabe aristocrat. You would not abandon Australia. I would feel much better if you were in the White House instead of the guy there now. Much, much, better.
Birdie
In December of 1941 the Axis was already outnumbered and outgunned, specifically the Germans had drastically shorted the Middle East on aircraft and armor up to taking on the British. The Germans were busy in Russia at the time.
The British could have spared more than enough aircraft and armor to defend Singapore, not to mention the ANZAC troops in the Middle East. And because of Enigma they knew how bad off the Germans were.
There was no excuse.

[wkwillis]

Back to the thread.
How to give Indonesia a decent army? Let's say that the Indonesians took out Brunei and Borneo Malaysia for the oil. This gives the Indonesians some combat experience and makes them much richer. Say, the US does not back up Malaysia in 1965 when the generals take over. Sabah and Sarawak wind up in Indonesia. Timor gets grabbed in 1975. Now it's 1985?
Then make the Middle East much hotter so that the price of oil goes up earlier and farther than in OTL. Indonesia now has the money to buy all that left over American military equipment from the Vietnamese.
Finally, have some kind of impeachment trial going on in America over Iran-Contra. Somebody talked after somebody died in a bombing gone wrong.
Indonesia is going to last longer in this case.
So three POD to make Indonesia richer, more combat experienced, and immune to American attack.

[Tielhard]

Mmmm! I don't see the Australian forces defeating an Indonesian invasion if the Indonesians exercise even a modicum of common sense. If they rant and rave, slowly build up thier forces and then put to sea then yes they are toast but who would be that dumb? However, I really cannot see the US letting it happen even if (legalistically) it has already repudiated ANZUS. So, in odrer for this to happen we need the Indonesians to be a bit sneaky and we need the USA to leave the Australians to rot.

Possible ways of getting the US to leave the Australians in the brown and sticky:

1) Australia give Indonesia a justifiable causus beli or perhaps occupies Indonesian territory to support separatist terrorists.
2) Australia does a 'noble Kiwi' and tells the USA where it can stick its nuclear armed warships.
3) Another 'Whitlam' type crisis but this time the red flags are out and the left does not back down.
4) Indonesia finds huge oil and/or strategic mineral reserves and offers US companies long term and very favourable leases if the US turns a blind eye to the invasion.
5) The Australian republican movement wins and the republic starts going red.
6) Points north of Indonesia begin to develop under Chinese influence, the domino therory is correct the US desparately needs bases and a bulwark against Chinese influence.
7) Pakistan/Israel/China give/sell Indonesia ICMBs and nuclear weapons technology.

As for Indonesia invading:

1) Use surprise Commando raids against air forces. Australian airforce is so small it cannot sustain even minor losses.
2) Ditto ammunition dumps, ditto ships in harbour.
3) Don't bother with Darwin it is too far from anywhere attack from Brisbane and use airbridge. Strike down the coast. After Sydney and Melbourne fall what is there left of Australia?
4) Attack the logistics Australia is huge but its transport links are weak, again use commandos.
5) If 7) above come in under the mushrooms.

Easy peasy.

[wkwillis]

Nuke winter forces desperate Indonesia to invade in search of food after a war between the US and Russia in 1982 over Afghanistan?

[Namaste]

Nuke winter forces desperate Indonesia to invade in search of food after a war between the US and Russia in 1982 over Afghanistan?

Sorry for resurrecting an old thread but what about Australia support secessionist movements in Indonesia such as Aceh, South Moluccas, Riau, West Papua and Sulawesi? Could that justify an invasion of Australia?

[Seldrin]

This is exactly what happens:
Indonesia: Well we're going to invade you, why, because you're a smelly head. Sends several amphibious transports and frigates with air support towards the NT
Australia: WTF!!! Sends all available navy ships and fighters to the NT.
(lets just say that Indonesia manages to take Darwin despite obvious military inferiority)
Australian People: WTF are you doing in my bloody country, bugger off!! Australians start beating the crap out of Indonesian soldiers who proceed to kill them.
Aboriginals: You know, we're all muslim, and we don't give a stuff about the Aussies, let's help our indo buddies.
Australia: Bombs supply lines whilst the newly returned troops from the middle east kick the shit out of the indo's and aboriginal rebels.
Indonesia: *just shit themselves* retreats.

[Riain]

How much of Korpassus can the TNI Navy and AF carry at once; 2 or 3 btns, more, less? If the TNI could land 2 or 3 btns of Korpassus at h-hour on d-day at a good spot then they would take some dislodging. If done correctly, and you'd have to assume a significant level of skill, the TNI would strike deep into Australia to slow the counter-attacks and make a lodgement secure.

Of course I have every faith in the ADF to wipe out such a lodgement along with most of the TNI AF and Navy. But if the lodgement was accompanied by an offer of immediate withdrawal in exchange for a raft of political concessions there may be some support for a ceasefire and negotiation. Thus the TNI may be able to get what it wants without having to face Australia's wrath. However Australia could dissemble while it destroyed the lodgement and wrote down the rest of the TNI.

[DMA]

How much of Korpassus can the TNI Navy and AF carry at once; 2 or 3 btns, more, less? If the TNI could land 2 or 3 btns of Korpassus at h-hour on d-day at a good spot then they would take some dislodging. If done correctly, and you'd have to assume a significant level of skill, the TNI would strike deep into Australia to slow the counter-attacks and make a lodgement secure.

Of course I have every faith in the ADF to wipe out such a lodgement along with most of the TNI AF and Navy. But if the lodgement was accompanied by an offer of immediate withdrawal in exchange for a raft of political concessions there may be some support for a ceasefire and negotiation. Thus the TNI may be able to get what it wants without having to face Australia's wrath. However Australia could dissemble while it destroyed the lodgement and wrote down the rest of the TNI.


Actually the Indonesians have a very good amphib capacity. Far better than Australia in fact. We're talking the ability to transport divisions, in this regards, at least.

[CalBear]

To recap...

Indonesian Air Force: 10 F-16 (Block 15), 5 SU-27, 5 SU-30, 8 C-130

RAAF: 71 F/A-18, 17 FB-111

Game over.

Oh, BTW, U.S. forces on Guam: TWO heavy bomber Wings, elements of a F-15 group, and a SSN group (plus whatever else is cycling through).

The Australian Defense Forces wouldn't need the help, but it's there, and only about six hours away. It is always worth remembering that your opponent has the Wrath of God (or at least a close copy) available.

[Riain]

RAAF F111 strength is kept at 24 planes, the FB111s are cycled through with the F111C AUPs to stretch fatigue hours. And since this is future history we can probably discount the pigs and count 24 F-model superbugs.

My point was that the Indos could concentrate the resources to land a brigade group without firing a shot, perhaps boxing day during the defence Christmas standown. The fighting wouldn't start until the Indos were on the ground and dug in.

[CalBear]

Utterly shameless plug:

http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=31624

For a view of what could have happened.

[Slamet]

Utterly shameless plug:

http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=31624

For a view of what could have happened.

Why don't you continue the TL? :D

[Riain]

CalBear, a couple of nitpicks with your thread. Why does an Orion get shot down over Darwin when we had RF111s which could have staged out of Cairns? And why does it take so long for F111s to attack in numbers, surely they'd be ready to go from the afternoon of Day 1, and hammer the Indo positions constantly. And where was the HMAS Melbourne, with it's Skyhawks?

That said, the rail lines to Darwin were thin on the ground in 1979, none from Cairns, Adelaide or Perth.

[BlackMage]

Hey, wow, my first post!

Although I wish oh wish this thread hadn't surfaced. I regard my Darwin jottings as a spectre haunting me, whatever I write in future, with its badness...sorta peeking over Sam Hamlin's shoulder, intoning, 'Remember South Irian.'

[Ridwan Asher]

oDepends how the war continues. Certainly the Indonesian navy & airforce is destroyed early on. As a result, the indonesian army is left stuck on whatever island they are currently on.

More importantly, from the Indonesian side, all the little civil wars going on will errupt into one huge rebellion. So most of Kalimantan, Sumartra, Timor, West New Guinea, & many other small islands like Ambon, will be in rebellion. Only somewhere like Java will the Indonesian govt be in control. If anything, the ANZUS allies could sit back & watch Indonesia fall apart, then move in afterwards as peace keepers, leaving Java isolated unto itself.

Soo, I see DMA was stuck on this illness as well back then, huh ? :rolleyes:;)

[Fellatio Nelson]

Indonesia would be butt-fucked.

I can understand some border dispute, but an invasion of Australia?

Even if totally by surprise - I'm sure no one would notice a massive armada being prepared! - and they landed on the coast of 'Stralia, it'd mean Indonesia fighting about (off the top of my head) 3-4 first rate militaries excluding the US and A, who'd not be too worried about Indonesian casualties.

[Slamet]

Indonesia would be

I can understand some border dispute, but an invasion of Australia?

Even if totally by surprise - I'm sure no one would notice a massive armada being prepared! - and they landed on the coast of 'Stralia, it'd mean Indonesia fighting about (off the top of my head) 3-4 first rate militaries excluding the US and A, who'd not be too worried about Indonesian casualties.

How come Suharto suddenly invades without any cassus belli?
Indonesia's not that crazy. That invasion force is going to be wrecked. Not to mention the already cordial-to-good relations with the US following the September Coup in 1965 would be wrecked.

[Fellatio Nelson]

How come Suharto suddenly invades without any cassus belli?
Indonesia's not that crazy. That invasion force is going to be wrecked. Not to mention the already cordial-to-good relations with the US following the September Coup in 1965 would be wrecked.

I never said they would; it's stUpid, but someone posited an Indonesian invasion of 'Stralia.

[CalBear]

Why don't you continue the TL? :D

That thing was a LOT of work, especially since I did it in about a week. :)

It was meant to be a counter point to BlackMage's TL so it had a definite ending.

[CalBear]

CalBear, a couple of nitpicks with your thread. Why does an Orion get shot down over Darwin when we had RF111s which could have staged out of Cairns? And why does it take so long for F111s to attack in numbers, surely they'd be ready to go from the afternoon of Day 1, and hammer the Indo positions constantly. And where was the HMAS Melbourne, with it's Skyhawks?

That said, the rail lines to Darwin were thin on the ground in 1979, none from Cairns, Adelaide or Perth.

Melborne was on the wrong side of the continent when the balloon went up.

The PC-3 was used in its regular recon role. At the time no one had a clue about what was actually afoot.

If anyone is interested, here is the link to the original discussion thread.

http://alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=31900

[DMA]

o

Soo, I see DMA was stuck on this illness as well back then, huh ? :rolleyes:;)


Given the date frame of the time in question? No I wasn't. The late 1990s wasn't a great time for Indonesian stability. Things have greatly changed now, & without a doubt in the past things were better, but at the time in question, not only were Australian/Indonesian relations at a low point, but you had East Timor demanding to leave, in rather ugly fashion, whilst there was insurrection in West New Guinea, parts of Kalimantan, Aceh (ok granted not all Sumatra), & various islands in trouble such as Ambon. So where is my illness? :p:D

[Jim Bob]

woo, blast from the past!

Well you'll need to completely change the Indonesian Order of Battle.
And the Australian, as you did. At any time, at least one of the frigates is in dock under repair/maintenance, its crew absent (we don't have heaps of spare crews like the Americans). The Leopards you talk about have mostly been disarmed now, their bolts destroyed - they're giving the rest of the bits of the things away (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/14/2032842.htm). The tankers themselves are not well-trained on them, each crew fires two live rounds annually, which tells you something about the size of our stores of ammunition. As for the Abrams they're replacing them with, we currently have no means of getting them whole across the country; no trucks can carry them, we have no aircraft large enough, they can only be transported dismantled on rail.

What we can put across the country is light infantry on foot, in rovers and Bushmasters, and some lighter artillery, with a few heavier pieces to keep them company. But it'd be slow, since we have just three dozen Blackhawks, and the same number of Hercs, with about a dozen Chinooks - at any one time, only about half of these are operational, though they can boost it up to two-thirds pretty quick. (At one point only 4 of the then 28 Blackhawks were operational!) Blackhawks can squeeze in a dozen lads with their kit, chooks a platoon, though the chooks would probably be busy lugging the arty and mortar bombs and so on, they can lug eleven tonnes from memory.

We don't have all the Harpoons you mention, but only half a dozen or so, and those not on ship but in stores. The frigates need something better than their 75mm guns. We'd have to get the yanks to send us the Harpoons, then put them on the ships in port - we're looking at a couple of weeks to get them ready to go.

As you say, the Indons are not up to much. Their "special forces" are more comfortable with unarmed civilians than other soldiers, but they've had the benefit of training with our SAS, so if nothing else they have a good idea of the way Aussies do things.

What the Indons can do is to land raider teams, destroying power substations, railways, mining highways - wouldn't take much to cut off Darwin and Broome.

The 'war' ends when the USA finally acknowledges it's treaty committments to Australia via ANZUS & tells the Indonesians to surrender or face the military might of the USA.
For a couple of weeks in 1999, it looked as though Indonesia might have a military coup, or one threatened, and then be in hostilities with Australia. The US told us we were on our own, as evidenced by the almost zero help we had in Timor itself.
Americans do not abandon their friends!
Like the Republic of Vietnam?

Or the peacekeeping in Lebanon?

How about all that US help Britain got in the Falklands?

[Ridwan Asher]

Given the date frame of the time in question? No I wasn't. The late 1990s wasn't a great time for Indonesian stability. Things have greatly changed now, & without a doubt in the past things were better, but at the time in question, not only were Australian/Indonesian relations at a low point, but you had East Timor demanding to leave, in rather ugly fashion, whilst there was insurrection in West New Guinea, parts of Kalimantan, Aceh (ok granted not all Sumatra), & various islands in trouble such as Ambon. So where is my illness? :p:D

Yes of course we weren't so stable back at the time. But I think you already understand that, if we have intended too, or maybe if Habibie wasn't the president of the time, it was actually quite easy for Indonesia to crush East Timor. It was only because of Asian Financial Crisis we descended into that kind of situation. If Indonesia were not to become democratic, or at least not that democratic, you can expect the rest of the post '97 rebellions would've been settled faster than they did IOTL.

Parts of Kalimantan ? What parts of Kalimantan ?? I've never heard there was any rebellion happened in Kalimantan ! What event happened in there back then that did you mistake as an act of rebellion ?

Like I've been saying all this time, Indonesian balkanization was never been as easy as many have been thinking all this time to achieve. Serious seccesionist movements (except RMS) were only created after Suharto ascended to power. And Suharto, during his whole period of reign, had been doing it effectively in order to make the break up of of the republic impossible to be happening without destroying the TNI first (and an outside intervention strong enough to do so, from some country like US obviously), hence why in 1997 Indonesia was already to strong to be broken up, despite of being hit by the contemporary financial crisis.

If something very grave would had happened back then that our army splintered into rival factions for whatever reason, maybe Indonesia could be well balkanized (if the factions would be more than 2, obviously ;)). I don't know how to splinter up TNI though, given up their records during under Suharto's reign. If that could have happened, somehow, though, maybe Indonesia could've become something like China during the warlords era....

[Barry Bull]

If something very grave would had happened back then that our army splintered into rival factions for whatever reason, maybe Indonesia could be well balkanized (if the factions would be more than 2, obviously ;)). I don't know how to splinter up TNI though, given up their records during under Suharto's reign. If that could have happened, somehow, though, maybe Indonesia could've become something like China during the warlords era....

Well, the TNI, by design, is 'balkanized' geograpically with each KODAM operating semi- indepedently. The KOPAUSS and strategic reserve in Java intervenes only if the local KODAM forces fail to do the job, so one way to splinter up TNI is to remove/eliminate the ability to move from Java to other islands, depriving the KODAMs of reinforcements.

[Ridwan Asher]

Well, the TNI, by design, is 'balkanized' geograpically with each KODAM operating semi- indepedently. The KOPAUSS and strategic reserve in Java intervenes only if the local KODAM forces fail to do the job, so one way to splinter up TNI is to remove/eliminate the ability to move from Java to other islands, depriving the KODAMs of reinforcements.

The concept sounds like it's a peace of cake though.... :)

Well, maybe I now know what TL Slamet should do next after KE :D

[Barry Bull]

The concept sounds like it's a peace of cake though.... :)

Well, maybe I now know what TL Slamet should do next after KE :D

May you be blessed with the peace from the Holiest Black Forest Cake.:D
Still, attempts to deprive the TNI the ability to move around between Islands should be relatively more 'realistic' then attempts to defeat the TNI with insurgent forces only, given the limited air and sea transport capability of the TNI and Garuda.

[Ridwan Asher]

May you be blessed with the peace from the Holiest Black Forest Cake.:D
Still, attempts to deprive the TNI the ability to move around between Islands should be relatively more 'realistic' then attempts to defeat the TNI with insurgent forces only, given the limited air and sea transport capability of the TNI and Garuda.

But what makes the idea sounds cool is because it'll be intriguing to realize, no ? ;)

[CalBear]

...Like the Republic of Vietnam?

Or the peacekeeping in Lebanon?

How about all that US help Britain got in the Falklands?

Interesting questions

Viet Nam - The U.S. propped up the South for better than a decade, losing 50,000 men in the process, nearly gutting the U.S. military in its primary mission of confronting the USSR in Europe and causing rips in the social fabric of the U.S. that echo to this day. In 1975, despite BILLIONS of dollars of U.S. equipment and supplies, ten of thousands of hours of training by U.S. advisor's, and a strong Air Force with over 250 combat aircraft, the ARVN collapsed like a house of cards. It is unlikely that, even if the U.S. had intervened, that it could have done anymore than hold a "Pusan Perimeter" style toehold in the South, so complete was the rout of the ARVN. At some point the Saigon government had to stand up for itself, it never did.

Lebanon - Who would that abandoned friend be? Israel? As near as I can tell, that was the only U.S. friend in the fight or effected by the aftermath. Last time I checked the Israelis were going very nicely, with ongoing U.S. support.

The UK & the Falklands - What, exactly, did the UK request from the U.S. in 1982 that was not provided. The U.S. provided Intel, took over the British responsibilities in NATO's defense scheme, plus whatever else was requested (some of which is no doubt still closely held). Perhaps the U.S. should have thrown a couple CBG's and a MAU at the problem, intervening when NO ONE ASKED and causing huge damage to the U.S. position in the Western Hemisphere, the UN, and world opinion while the Cold War was still going on. This action also confirming Europe's worst fears about Ronald Reagan being an out of control cowboy, at a point when the Cold War was still a very much on-going concern.

Quite the abandonment overall.

[DMA]

Yes of course we weren't so stable back at the time. But I think you already understand that, if we have intended too, or maybe if Habibie wasn't the president of the time, it was actually quite easy for Indonesia to crush East Timor. It was only because of Asian Financial Crisis we descended into that kind of situation. If Indonesia were not to become democratic, or at least not that democratic, you can expect the rest of the post '97 rebellions would've been settled faster than they did IOTL.


Well I get the impression that Habibie is a rather nice guy who was sincere in wanting democratic reforms throughout Indonesia. I think he's been overlooked greatly. Furthermore I don't think he would have cracked down on East Timor, as you suggest. Besides which doing so would mean international condemnation which, I think it's fair to say, would be the last thing Indonesia needed at the time.



Parts of Kalimantan ? What parts of Kalimantan ?? I've never heard there was any rebellion happened in Kalimantan ! What event happened in there back then that did you mistake as an act of rebellion ?


To be fair the situation in Kalimantan in the mid to late 1990s wasn't actually aimed at the government. I did a quick Google this morning & instantly came across the business I was refering to. Here's a couple of the links:


http://www.american.edu/TED/ice/kaliman.htm

http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/asia/borneo0228.htm

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=1455

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/1185736.stm




Like I've been saying all this time, Indonesian balkanization was never been as easy as many have been thinking all this time to achieve. Serious seccesionist movements (except RMS) were only created after Suharto ascended to power. And Suharto, during his whole period of reign, had been doing it effectively in order to make the break up of of the republic impossible to be happening without destroying the TNI first (and an outside intervention strong enough to do so, from some country like US obviously), hence why in 1997 Indonesia was already to strong to be broken up, despite of being hit by the contemporary financial crisis.

If something very grave would had happened back then that our army splintered into rival factions for whatever reason, maybe Indonesia could be well balkanized (if the factions would be more than 2, obviously ;)). I don't know how to splinter up TNI though, given up their records during under Suharto's reign. If that could have happened, somehow, though, maybe Indonesia could've become something like China during the warlords era....


Now all this I completely agree with.

[raharris1973]

I think what got the international ocmmunity involved in a serious way was that the Indonesian government outsmarted itself by holding and publicizing an election and then trying to mess with the results.

If Jakarta had just kept the lid on, Timor might have remained one of those things that outsiders lament but never do anything concrete about, like Tibet.

[Ridwan Asher]

1) Well I get the impression that Habibie is a rather nice guy who was sincere in wanting democratic reforms throughout Indonesia. I think he's been overlooked greatly. Furthermore I don't think he would have cracked down on East Timor, as you suggest. Besides which doing so would mean international condemnation which, I think it's fair to say, would be the last thing Indonesia needed at the time.






2) To be fair the situation in Kalimantan in the mid to late 1990s wasn't actually aimed at the government. I did a quick Google this morning & instantly came across the business I was refering to. Here's a couple of the links:


http://www.american.edu/TED/ice/kaliman.htm

http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/asia/borneo0228.htm

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=1455

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/1185736.stm

1) Correct. Though rather than a nice guy (while it's relatively true), I'll say he just wasn't a political person.
He's a geek. And one of my gravest regret of being Indonesian is to face the fact how the politics in my country is just very anti-anything-geekish....

2) Yes, it was purely horizontal conflict between Maduran settlers and the Dayak natives. And unlike the similar conflicts in Ambon and Poso, most likely it wasn't caused by covert agitation by those who wanted to throw public attention from the government faults to there.

[Ridwan Asher]

As you say, the Indons are not up to much. Their "special forces" are more comfortable with unarmed civilians than other soldiers, but they've had the benefit of training with our SAS, so if nothing else they have a good idea of the way Aussies do things.

Jim Bob.

It seems obviously clear to me how do you feel about Suharto, which I perfectly understand why. And of course atrocities did happen during his reign here, and some were indeed committed by Kopassus. But if that was a serious attempt to describe what is Kopassus, than it's a total failure !!

Feel free to hate anything you want, but you can at least pretend you're doing it respectably, and that you are sticking with the time !

Now, I'm indeed starting to feel that Grammar Nazism are appealing.... ;)

[TheMann]

Well I can't see how the Indonesians can do any of this to be honest. At most, their army, for instance, is only about 250 000 strong. And most of that is involved in keeping the various rebellions in place without them becoming one huge civil war covering much of the country. Like they couldn't even keep East Timor undercontrol, so I can't see how their army has a chance at conquring all of Australia. And, needless to say, their air force & navy has zero chance in taking on the RAN & RAAF.

Having said all that, the best scenario for Indonesia is in 1976 just after their invasion of East Timor. Not only is Australia in a political mess, thanks to the Dismissal, but our armed forces are very weak as well thanks to Vietnam. We've only got the Adams DDGs as something superior to the Indonesian navy, other than HMAS Melbourne & her A4s. But they'd be in Sydney at the time. Other than that we've got the old Mirage IIIs, but again they're based along the eastern coastline & no where near Darwin. Similarly our subs are based in Sydney. This means the north is open to invasion.

Yet, although I'd say the Indonesians could land a force at Darwin & take it, what's there to take? Dawrin was destroyed at Chrismas 1974. So all they invade is a disaster zone. They have to bring everything with them. Plus their invasion force will not be overly big. They'll need to keep a large force in East Timor, considering the situation there, plus they still have rebellions taking place in Irian Jaya & Ache. So their invasion army will only be about 50 000 at best, limited to light armour & artillery. Meanwhile Australia is forced to react. Although military morale is low after Vietnam, it still has a force of about 30 000 troops, not to mention a similar number of troops who are Vietnam vets. In other words, Australia can field a force of 60 000 well trained troops, half of the veterans, who can take on the 50 000 Indonesians. Australia also has brand new Leapard MBT, over 500 battle tested M-113, and lots of artillery.

So slowly, but surely, the Australians recover from the initial invasion. The Indonesians have to bring everything with them meaning their supply lines are under constant threat. There are limited air & sea battles over the Timor Sea. Although Australia doesn't close the Timor Sea, Indonesia nevertheless loses ships & supplies. At the same time, the Indonesians find that the way south of Darwin is blocked around Adelaide River as per Australia war plans from WW2. A long hard fought battle takes place. After some months, the Indonesians are forced to retreat & finally surrender a few months later in Darwin. The Vietnam veterans, not to mention the Australian military overall, are now heros of the Australian nation, upholding the ethos of the Anzac legend, & the stigma of Vietnam is soon forgotten.

The war ends in stalemate as Australia can't counter-attack Indonesia & they likewise can't do much against Australia. The UN organises a cease-fire etc sometime in mid-1977.

That might be an interesting TL base, ya know.

Australia would come out of that very, very proud of themselves (and rightly so). Could that end up shifting history?

After Australia pounds the Indonesians, would Australia be very sympathetic to the Indonesians? I'd wager they'd want to keep New Guinea in their orbit at least, and perhaps both Australia and the US start taking a more active role in the third world and its battles?

And for military history, after that one better believe that when Melbourne is used up that Australia WILL replace it, and its air wing. Perhaps Australia buys the Ark Royal or Franklin D. Roosevelt at this time, as both had only recently been retired by Britain and the US.

And what's Australia's stances in later years? Australia convinced the UK to ignore the Zimbabwe-Rhodesia agreement, for starters.

[Riain]

When the hell is this supposed invasion supposed to be happening? We have a TL about one in 1979, another forming about 1975 or so by the look of it, but this is future history that asked about in the future or recent past?

[BlackMage]

When the hell is this supposed invasion supposed to be happening? We have a TL about one in 1979, another forming about 1975 or so by the look of it, but this is future history that asked about in the future or recent past?

This thread predates the Future History forum -- it was originally in After 1900.

[backstab]

woo, blast from the past!


And the Australian, as you did. At any time, at least one of the frigates is in dock under repair/maintenance, its crew absent (we don't have heaps of spare crews like the Americans). The Leopards you talk about have mostly been disarmed now, their bolts destroyed

No ... they are still sitting at Bandiana... fully functional

- they're giving the rest of the bits of the things away (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/14/2032842.htm). The tankers themselves are not well-trained on them, each crew fires two live rounds annually, which tells you something about the size of our stores of ammunition
Where did you get that crap from ? I have fired more than 2 rounds in a year and I was not even a Gunner in the Regiment

. As for the Abrams they're replacing them with, we currently have no means of getting them whole across the country
Crap again ... how do you think they got them from Melbourne up to Darwin ?

no trucks can carry them
Crap again ....... got to live the uninformed !
We purchaced tank transporters as part of the package

we have no aircraft large enough
C-17 can transport 1 ... not many planes can transport real tanks anyway

, they can only be transported dismantled on rail.
They do not have to be dismantled ... just driven onto flatbeds


What we can put across the country is light infantry on foot, in rovers and Bushmasters, and some lighter artillery, with a few heavier pieces to keep them company.
Last time I checked we had a Mech Bn with another one forming


But it'd be slow, since we have just three dozen Blackhawks, and the same number of Hercs, with about a dozen Chinooks - at any one time, only about half of these are operational, though they can boost it up to two-thirds pretty quick. (At one point only 4 of the then 28 Blackhawks were operational!) Blackhawks can squeeze in a dozen lads with their kit, chooks a platoon, though the chooks would probably be busy lugging the arty and mortar bombs and so on, they can lug eleven tonnes from memory.
Thats the closest to the truth you have been so far



What the Indons can do is to land raider teams, destroying power substations, railways, mining highways - wouldn't take much to cut off Darwin and Broome.


We have a Mechanized Brigade stationed in Darwin.... my money would be on them. The Ino's might be able to disrupt power for a day or two but thats it


For a couple of weeks in 1999, it looked as though Indonesia might have a military coup, or one threatened, and then be in hostilities with Australia. The US told us we were on our own, as evidenced by the almost zero help we had in Timor itself.

Like the Republic of Vietnam?

Or the peacekeeping in Lebanon?

How about all that US help Britain got in the Falklands?

Thanks to Calbear, this has been addressed

[Ridwan Asher]

That might be an interesting TL base, ya know.

Australia would come out of that very, very proud of themselves (and rightly so). Could that end up shifting history?

After Australia pounds the Indonesians, would Australia be very sympathetic to the Indonesians? I'd wager they'd want to keep New Guinea in their orbit at least, and perhaps both Australia and the US start taking a more active role in the third world and its battles?

And for military history, after that one better believe that when Melbourne is used up that Australia WILL replace it, and its air wing. Perhaps Australia buys the Ark Royal or Franklin D. Roosevelt at this time, as both had only recently been retired by Britain and the US.

And what's Australia's stances in later years? Australia convinced the UK to ignore the Zimbabwe-Rhodesia agreement, for starters.

The thing is.... what about the casus belli that would cause the whole thing ?

[Riain]

Finding a cassus belli is that hardest thing about Aus vs Indo scenarios. I'd suggest that we don't bother, just say that both Govts were pig headed and invent a scenario from that. The best things are where we start the trouble, in Aust, or somewhere in Indo, or even eslewhere like PNG. That will affect the way a war is fought.

[Slamet]

Finding a cassus belli is that hardest thing about Aus vs Indo scenarios. I'd suggest that we don't bother, just say that both Govts were pig headed and invent a scenario from that. The best things are where we start the trouble, in Aust, or somewhere in Indo, or even eslewhere like PNG. That will affect the way a war is fought.

Oooh, a pave-up-to-the-war TL?

[Ridwan Asher]

Oooh, a pave-up-to-the-war TL?

Well there was never even once happened real antagonization between two nations grave enough to start any physical conflict between the two. We owe Australian support during war of independence and the Papuan dispute. That added with Australia's impenetrable position and many other obvious things making Indonesia the least likely between the two to start up the fire, no matter how noisy they were whenever they saw our doings as "unfavorable" during the reign of the first two "emperors". To make Australia start it will only be slightly easier, if not will be just as hard.

Riain, I'd suggest we should bother to make casus belli and even the whole background in order to make any kinds of Indonesia-Australia conflict, each casus belli and background for each kind of conflict, like Slamet was probably intending to say. No fuel, no fire. Rather amazing to me how this kind of suggestion has never been thrown in this thread even after 8 pages.

[Riain]

What about 1975 being a big year, with PNG independence and Timor Leste de/re-colonisation? If these events were interplayed perhaps enough tension could be generated for a shooting war could result. I think that Indo would have to turn to a Soviet supplier to get the old Soviet gear working to an extent to give Indo enough force to push the issue.

[Ridwan Asher]

What about 1975 being a big year, with PNG independence and Timor Leste de/re-colonisation? If these events were interplayed perhaps enough tension could be generated for a shooting war could result. I think that Indo would have to turn to a Soviet supplier to get the old Soviet gear working to an extent to give Indo enough force to push the issue.

Umm... Indonesia was already west aligned in 1975... -_-

[Riain]

You don't have to go to the Soviet Union to get spare parts for Soviet equipment. What was Egypt, Syria or others doing with their early 60s vintage gear? Could they be a source of spares in a worsening situation, perhaps exploiting Islamic ties? And I don't expect every piece of Soviet gear to be running a treat, even if perhaps half of the ex-Soviet planes could be made combat worthy-ish for a short time during the crisis it would give the TNI a boost at the right time.

Other than spares supply do you think 1975 could be manufactured into a tense enough period?

[Ridwan Asher]

You're not getting it. Suharto was fiercely, furiously anti communist! Supersemar purge and Invasion of East Timor ring a bell to you ?

Anyway, I can't see someone like Suharto will ever going to invade Australia for whatever reason, be Australia wants to be noisy as long as they want as long as Australia won't going to become a communist country. It's obvious already that Suharto was even less loud than Sukarno, which obviously had no territorial ambition whatsoever (though surely he had the hegemonical one). It's also clear already that our navy was being retarded by Suharto's army-centric policies during his reign. So how could you possibly expect Indonesia will going to launch invasion against Australia under his lead ???

Unless he decided to fix his policies for the navy, greatly, Then US somehow collapse for whatever reason after helping him on it, he will never have the chance, nor the intention, to invade Australia. Unless of course, if Australia goes commie....:rolleyes:

Anyway, Suharto was very close to US. They (US) respected him as one of the most notorious Anti-Communist Devas during the Cold War. And Suharto will never, ever going to destroy that feeling towards him! It won't be something normal to expect Suharto will do something unwise regarding his relationship with the US and that's it ! Hell, even Bill Clinton respected him....

DIT: Oh sorry, I didn't see your first line.... :o But my points still stand, however... Especially about his closeness to US, which he was treasuring it wisely. And about the likeliness of he even intending to invade Australia at all.

[Riain]

I get it, but I wasn't the one who wanted to create a casus belli for an Aus-Indo war was I! I'm happy to explore such a war without the bothersome detail of having to find a cause, mainly because the politics of it are too hard.

Either way I do think one thing such a war would need is a tilt in the military balance toward Indo for at least a short time. Getting that Russian crap you got in the early 60s going again would be an easy and cheap way to do it without the intervention of the SU and US.

[Ridwan Asher]

1) I get it, but I wasn't the one who wanted to create a casus belli for an Aus-Indo war was I! I'm happy to explore such a war without the bothersome detail of having to find a cause, mainly because the politics of it are too hard.

2) Either way I do think one thing such a war would need is a tilt in the military balance toward Indo for at least a short time. Getting that Russian crap you got in the early 60s going again would be an easy and cheap way to do it without the intervention of the SU and US.

1) So how do you light a fire then ?
You don't have to be master of politics just to figure out a way to make a conflict makes sense to be generated.

2) Surely do. But I don't how likely it'd be to expect Suharto went as far as looking for emm.... "Russian crap"....
Suharto was even rather Americano-phile for his weaponry as well, and he wasn't to sympathetic towards any nations aligned with Soviet and/or China either. Thus getting him to get Soviet parts and arms would be a tricky job. Though I think it'd be easier if done during the '80s, when some of former Soviet aligned states had already switched sides, and still have their Soviet-made arms and parts. But in this time frame it'll be harder for an Indo-Oz conflict to be generated.

[Ridwan Asher]

What about 1975 being a big year, with PNG independence and Timor Leste de/re-colonisation? If these events were interplayed perhaps enough tension could be generated for a shooting war could result.

How exactly those events should be interplayed though ? Enough to get Australia actually send troops to East Timor before Indonesia did ? And btw would that mean Australia should be politically stable at that time as well ? And one should wonder how US will react if Australia would actually generate a military presence in anyway in East Timor....

[Riain]

Now you know why I didn't want to bother with a PoD. Do you have one?

[Ridwan Asher]

Now you know why I didn't want to bother with a PoD. Do you have one?

Honestly, no. I consider any kinds of Indo-Oz conflict with Suharto as the Indonesian commander as borderline ASB myself, let alone the kind that we invade Australia under his lead !

If this thread is about speculation on how Indonesian invasion of Australia will result, taking aside whatever the cause of it, then the bolded part should've been mentioned in the OP of this thread, not that crap about Islam vs West bullshit ! What makes me even feel more disturbed is most people here in this thread seem to think that it's a normal thing to see if Indonesia would do something nonsensical such as rushfully invading Australia without any casus belli. That is utter lameness !!

[Riain]

I forgot about The Dismissal in Nov 1975. Fine piece of democracy that one.

[Ridwan Asher]

I forgot about The Dismissal in Nov 1975. Fine piece of democracy that one.

Well I agree about that, though what's about it ?

[DMA]

Well I agree about that, though what's about it ?


Try a defacto coup d'etate

[Riain]

Australia was hardly a model of stable democracy in 1975; election, opposition blocking supply, GG dismissing the PM, installation of caretaker govt, election. Hardly the environment were Australian govts would take a stand over East Timor.

What did Suharto have to say about PNG independence? For or against?

[DMA]

There you go! Indonesia could have come to Australia, in late 1975 after The Dismissal, in the name of liberty, fraternity, and the pursuit of happiness, in order to free us from the tyranny of Fraser & Kerr ;)

[Ridwan Asher]

1)Australia was hardly a model of stable democracy in 1975; election, opposition blocking supply, GG dismissing the PM, installation of caretaker govt, election. Hardly the environment were Australian govts would take a stand over East Timor.

2) What did Suharto have to say about PNG independence? For or against?

1) Oh yes, I remember it now ! :)

2) Well we have been normally friendly with PNG since the country's independence. It's just good to have stable and quite neighbor in our eastern final frontier. :)

Besides it's been Indonesian nature to be happy about seeing any country that manages to break free from any white colonialism. Suharto was no exception, though sometimes he got his own exceptional conditions concerning about the direction the said country's taking.... ;)

[Ridwan Asher]

There you go! Indonesia could have come to Australia, in late 1975 after The Dismissal, in the name of liberty, fraternity, and the pursuit of happiness, in order to free us from the tyranny of Fraser & Kerr ;)

Wasn't he commie, too ? :p

EDIT : Oops, sorry it was Whitlam who was... ;p Rather to late to have us come there.... ;) :D

[Riain]

Just a word on the 'Russian crap', in this war without a cassus belli. If all TNI-AF's good stuff is concentrated to fight the RAAF F111s and Mirages what's to stop surface ships and slow long range aircraft causing all sorts of mishcief throughout Indo? In the event of an Aus-Indo war in 1975 getting those old Russian planes flying again would be very handy in limiting the RAAF and RAN's, and hence the Army's, freedom of movement/action.

As for cassus belli, we now have 3 elements to play with; PNG independence, ET de/re-colonisation and the Dismissal. Externally this is theyear the US finally pulled out of Vietnam and the Mayguez (sp?) incident, so they may not be involved much. What domestic issues in Indo can we throw into this mix? Is there any wriggle room in there for political mavericks/rabble rousers and public unrest to create tensions, since noisy bit players are easy to create for AH purposes?

[Ridwan Asher]

1) As for cassus belli, we now have 3 elements to play with; PNG independence, ET de/re-colonisation and the Dismissal. Externally this is theyear the US finally pulled out of Vietnam and the Mayguez (sp?) incident, so they may not be involved much.
2) What domestic issues in Indo can we throw into this mix? Is there any wriggle room in there for political mavericks/rabble rousers and public unrest to create tensions, since noisy bit players are easy to create for AH purposes?

1) My Lai, you mean ?
Anyway, for the sake of generating conflict between INA and AUS, I don't think PNG (truly) independence can help. In fact I think it's the vice versa: Greater Australian presence in PNG! We were basically fine and happy seeing PNG being decolonized IOTL. Now if what happened was Australia suspiciously reinforce its position in PNG despite the country's official independence (if it is. Canceling PNG independence could might make an easier option.)....
And that would absolutely require inner political stability in the Australian homeland (hence the Dismissal will be butterflied away). This way, maybe we can have Australia prepared enough to commence move to ET when they got their chance. I'm sure that one of the main reason of Whitlam's opposition on Indonesian annexation of ET was because of the Fretilin's socialist alignment, besides that particular sentiment of historical "connection" to the country since the WWII times, besides the Timor Gap oil, perhaps....

As for Indonesian side, no there wasn't any. 1975 was just a year after the Malari incident BTW, but it's irrelevant on this topic. Anyway, there is no way to expect the rather reactive Suharto making his move unless it is to counter what can be perceived as threat, in which a more politically stable Australia can possibly (not probably) provide.

[Riain]

Australia, even during The Dissmissal, wasn't so politically unstable that should a defence emergency arise it wouldn't get the full attention that it deserved from political leaders. Indeed should a defence emergency arise The Dismissal issues would just die on the spot, never to arise again. So perhaps in response to the murder of the Balibo 5, and his crisis at home, Whitlam publically announces that he will oppose the Indo invasion of East Timor. Fraser would have to support this move and release supply or face the negative political consequences.

Such a move may provoke a war, but it would be a spur of the moment thing which would leave Indo in a poor position militarily. Indo does need a military boost prior to a war with Aus if such a war isn't to be a turkey shoot for RAAF F111s, Mirages and the HMAS Melbourne's battle group.

[Ridwan Asher]

1) Australia, even during The Dissmissal, wasn't so politically unstable that should a defence emergency arise it wouldn't get the full attention that it deserved from political leaders. Indeed should a defence emergency arise The Dismissal issues would just die on the spot, never to arise again. So perhaps in response to the murder of the Balibo 5, and his crisis at home, Whitlam publically announces that he will oppose the Indo invasion of East Timor. Fraser would have to support this move and release supply or face the negative political consequences.

2) Such a move may provoke a war, but it would be a spur of the moment thing which would leave Indo in a poor position militarily. Indo does need a military boost prior to a war with Aus if such a war isn't to be a turkey shoot for RAAF F111s, Mirages and the HMAS Melbourne's battle group.

1) I'm not sure that would be a wise move for Whitlam to pull. His crisis at home was basically about his unpopularity, no ? Besides he(along with the allies) had just lost in Vietnam. Was the Australian public opinion really for pro-ET intervention that time ? If wasn't, wouldn't it just going to reveal he's in difficult position, and be a political suicide for him ? Besides Indonesian invasion of ET was a very rightist policy, proved by full support and arms from US.

2) Wonder why the fact of US support for Indonesian invasion of ET is often neglected. If Australia would've just dared to generate presence in ET without permission, wouldn't it going to anger US ?

Anyway, there were quite plenty of good reasons why Australia abandoned ET. There was a lost in Vietnam, besides Whitlam's problem at home, Indonesia being in a more prepared position and supported by US, Fretilin's socialist alignment which was supported by China(which Indonesia was having a freezing relationship with)....

Especially in diplomatic position, little could Australia have done about East Timor.

[Ridwan Asher]

Australia, even during The Dissmissal, wasn't so politically unstable that should a defence emergency arise it wouldn't get the full attention that it deserved from political leaders. Indeed should a defence emergency arise The Dismissal issues would just die on the spot, never to arise again. So perhaps in response to the murder of the Balibo 5, and his crisis at home, Whitlam publically announces that he will oppose the Indo invasion of East Timor. Fraser would have to support this move and release supply or face the negative political consequences.


And apparently, regarding Whitlam's stands on our invasion to ET back then.... :
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2000/sep2000/timo-s18.shtml
http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-31689348.html

[Riain]

Yeah I know, but that was before the Dismissal crisis. Whitalm had recently won his second election, the first labour PM to so, but did an unusual thing by getting loans from overseas to outflank a hostile Senate. The opposition blew this out of proportion and hounded Whitlam, who despite this kept the confidence of parliament on several occasions in the leadup to the Dismissal. The whole affair was very unusual, an virtually unprecedented.

What I'd suggest is that Whitlam do a late backflip as a result of the position he found himself in Oct/Nov 1975.

As for the US, firstly who cares, they have never been really interested in this part of the world. Which is why they never publically stated that they would categorically help Aus in an Aus-Indo conflict, despite the longstanding formal treaty which Australia had taken great pains to uphold. Secondly, if Australia decided off it's own bat to confront Indo over ET there would be overly much that the US could do to us in the short term.

[Slamet]

Such a move may provoke a war, but it would be a spur of the moment thing which would leave Indo in a poor position militarily. Indo does need a military boost prior to a war with Aus if such a war isn't to be a turkey shoot for RAAF F111s, Mirages and the HMAS Melbourne's battle group.

Too right. The best things we had were a couple of T-33s and a couple of MiG-21s, not a lot to brag about... :(

[Riain]

Exactly, so perhaps we should stop looking for political motives and look instead for window's of opportunity, where a recent capability boost changes the military balance for a while. The 80s looks like a bad time for us, we lost the Melbourne, our Mirage fleet was depleting and not yet replaced with Hornets and we'd lost a few F111s. When did you get your A4s and F5s?

[Slamet]

We ordered F5E/Fs in 1982, they arrived by early 1983. We only had 16 aircraft, though we eventually had a couple more. Most of our air force was still Sabres and MiG-19s way until the end of the 1980s.

A4s started arriving in 1981, from the Israeli air force then from the US. First shipment was 10 from the Israelis, though we eventually got 32.

So no go for 1975.

[Riain]

Well by 1985-6 we only had about 50 Mirages left and a mere handful of Hornets. So perhaps the A4 and F5 could nearly match our fighter force in about 1985.

[Slamet]

Well by 1985-6 we only had about 50 Mirages left and a mere handful of Hornets. So perhaps the A4 and F5 could nearly match our fighter force in about 1985.

Of course, the US embargo was still strangling us...kind of. Wouldn't Britain support Australia?

[DMA]

Of course, the US embargo was still strangling us...kind of. Wouldn't Britain support Australia?


Actually it's more of a case that we have Dingoes ;)

[Riain]

We didn't operate much British stuff by the 80s, so Brit support would equate to extra combat power in the short term. French support would be better, we could integrate another sqn of Mirages quickly enough, similarly with the US and some more F111s or another DDG.

[DMA]

We didn't operate much British stuff by the 80s, so Brit support would equate to extra combat power in the short term. French support would be better, we could integrate another sqn of Mirages quickly enough, similarly with the US and some more F111s or another DDG.


Not quite right. The subs were all British as where the FFs. SLRs were still around in abundence as well. So were numerous artillery pieces, not to mention the ubiquitous Land Rover.

[Riain]

Would the Brits sell/lease/give us a Type 12 on ultra short notice if we needed to fight Indo? Or an Oberon? Or more accurately, one that wasn't completely rooted? As for army equipment, a batch of landrovers or artillery pieces isn't going to rapidly alter the military balance the way a dozen Mirages, half a dozen F111s and/or a warship will.

[Slamet]

Would the Brits sell/lease/give us a Type 12 on ultra short notice if we needed to fight Indo? Or an Oberon? Or more accurately, one that wasn't completely rooted? As for army equipment, a batch of landrovers or artillery pieces isn't going to rapidly alter the military balance the way a dozen Mirages, half a dozen F111s and/or a warship will.

And we've got no one to count on as allies...

[DMA]

Would the Brits sell/lease/give us a Type 12 on ultra short notice if we needed to fight Indo? Or an Oberon? Or more accurately, one that wasn't completely rooted?


Can't speak for the rooted RN Rothburys, but the British were more than happy to offload Leanders, around the time in question, to anyone who wanted them. And there were plenty of thankful takers who loved the Leander (note the last two RAN "River" class FFs where Leander & not Type 12s ;) ).

The same can be said for the Oberons as well.


As for army equipment, a batch of landrovers or artillery pieces isn't going to rapidly alter the military balance the way a dozen Mirages, half a dozen F111s and/or a warship will.


The Land Rovers were fundamental to moving around in the type of territory we're talking about - given the time period in question.

Furthermore it was, back then, Australian army doctrine to have as much artillery as possible in order to support the infantry. Doctrine dictated that infantry didn't operate outside of their artillery umbrella. That I recall from my time in OCTU albeit in the early 1990s.

IMHO the Mirages were overrated. The F-111s, granted, are a completely different story, but we didn't have many of those.

[Riain]

DMA, pollies aren't going to decide whether or not to go to war, or write the ROE based around towed arty and landrovers.

Slamet, considering the US, with it's longstanding alliance for which we fought in Vietnam and the Gulf for, wouldn't garuntee support in the event of war with Indo I'd say we didn't have anyone we could count on as Allies either.

[DMA]

DMA, pollies aren't going to decide whether or not to go to war, or write the ROE based around towed arty and landrovers..


Back in the 1980s, yes they did - kinda - well at least it was military doctine back then ;)



Slamet, considering the US, with it's longstanding alliance for which we fought in Vietnam and the Gulf for, wouldn't garuntee support in the event of war with Indo I'd say we didn't have anyone we could count on as Allies either.


Overall Australia will be defeated! :eek:

All Hail Indonesia! It's an easy language to learn BTW :cool::eek::rolleyes::D

[Ridwan Asher]

And we've got no one to count on as allies...

....if we were the ones who would start the whole mess. Or you mean that we are in desperate need for some counter-aphrodisiac that can work against western-centric pro-actively implausible paranoia syndrome ? ;)

[Ridwan Asher]

Slamet, considering the US, with it's longstanding alliance for which we fought in Vietnam and the Gulf for, wouldn't garuntee support in the event of war with Indo I'd say we didn't have anyone we could count on as Allies either.

Certainly.

Except that if we would be led by someone loony enough to attack a dry continent using a country which possess a naval force from the 60s....

[Slamet]

....if we were the ones who would start the whole mess. Or you mean that we are in desperate need for some counter-aphrodisiac that can work against western-centric pro-actively implausible paranoia syndrome ? ;)

Well, CalBear's TL did mention that we were the ones who started it...;)

[Ridwan Asher]

Well, CalBear's TL did mention that we were the ones who started it...;)

Surely I think my proposal has some prospect.... ;):D

[Slamet]

Surely I think my proposal has some prospect.... ;):D

Sorry, but my English linguistic skills aren't as good as yours, so I didn't understand the last part. :p But who would support Indonesia if Australia invaded? We just took Timor here!

[Ridwan Asher]

1) Sorry, but my English linguistic skills aren't as good as yours, so I didn't understand the last part. :p
2) But who would support Indonesia if Australia invaded? We just took Timor here!

1) You.... :rolleyes:
No... I mean, my brain's currently half dead, thanks for asking :rolleyes:

2) Well... we took Timor with the Yanks' support. Now, if the Ozzians would've decided to go against that reality.....

[Slamet]

1) You.... :rolleyes:
No... I mean, my brain's currently half dead, thanks for asking :rolleyes:

2) Well... we took Timor with the Yanks' support. Now, if the Ozzians would've decided to go against that reality.....

1) That thing about the Western paranoia what-its :rolleyes:

2) Are they willing to turn 180 deg. from sealing us off with an embargo to helping us fight a commonwealth of an ally?

[Ridwan Asher]

1) That thing about the Western paranoia what-its :rolleyes:

2) Are they willing to turn 180 deg. from sealing us off with an embargo to helping us fight a commonwealth of an ally?

1) Nope. On the lingual control part which is dead. Is why I no can speak really.... :p

2) So... they would let Australia saving a socialist country from Indon capitalistic scourge ? How loyal..... ;)