Al-Qaeda obtains 300 kiloton hydrogen bomb

[Darkest]

After reading the recent National Geographic article on nuclear weapons, it seems that terrorists might be able to do serious damage against Western nations that will be able to make 9/11 look like a warning shot.

What if the Al-Qaeda somehow attained a hydrogen bomb, say, 300 kilotons? It would be able to decimate almost everything within a 4.6 mile (7.4 km) radius. It could also be carried by something as simple as a truck or small boat. If they just obtained this weapon today, what would the Al-Qaeda try to do? How and where would they sneak the bomb through, what country would they attack, and what city?

What would result from such a nuclear attack?

Discuss.

[Bulldawg85]

Probably London, Washington D.C., NYC, LA, or San Francisco. Maybe even Tel Aviv. Of course, if that happened then all the gloves would be off. There wouldn't be any complaining about civilian casualties.

[Imajin]

They'd know that this is probably their only chance to have such a bomb... once-in-a-lifetime and all that, so they'd do something big. I'd guess Washington..

[cranos]

Probably London, Washington D.C., NYC, LA, or San Francisco. Maybe even Tel Aviv. Of course, if that happened then all the gloves would be off. There wouldn't be any complaining about civilian casualties.

So which country do you invade?

[hammo1j]

An excellent what if scenario.

They dont possess the Technology to make one themselves:

Declared Nuclear Powers

United States 10,240
Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) 8,400
People's Republic of China 390
France 350
United Kingdom 200-300
India 60-90
Pakistan 30-52
North Korea 0-18

Suspected Nuclear Powers

Israel
Iran
North Korea
Ukraine - had 5,000 that were repatriated to Russia but a few seem to have gone missing!!!

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_nuclear_weapons

Now H-Bomb is also considerable level of complexity compared to A-Bomb and that would only put US, Russia (Ukraine), China, Britain and France as the source of the device.

I would put it, given the possible sources, as very unlikely that Al Quaeda could obtain such a device and that the discussion might be more sensibly centered on a 20kt Hiroshima type A bomb.

Certainly there are rogue states on the list Iran and North Korea who might possibly offer these weapons to terrorists.

Again we have to look at AQ's motives: to obtain popular support for Jihad. The majority of moslems I don't think are interested and the appeal is to the young and hotheaded. An action like this would have the opposite effect in that it would truly place the western nations on a war footing. 9/11 was spectacular but something like this would be too spectacular.

The support of Iran or NK would be difficult because once the source of the bomb was known immediate retaliation would follow.

Ok lets say a bomb is stolen from Russia and its loss is not noted (Similar to Ukraine not sure of its inventory).

If I was Bin Laden what I would do is transport the bomb overland to Iraq and explode it in an unpopulated area but near to Baghdad. I would say that this is what we are capable of and we will strike another target unless you withdraw Allied forces from the Moslem world.

[Dave Howery]

So which country do you invade?
all of them! ha ha!
:p

[ericams2786]

Well I'd say that if the Muslim world is lucky, they may not be nuked into oblivion, other than that, I'd say many more people would join the armed forces, and Iran, North Korea, and any other country that so much as looked at us wrong would be screwed.

[cranos]

Well I'd say that if the Muslim world is lucky, they may not be nuked into oblivion, other than that, I'd say many more people would join the armed forces, and Iran, North Korea, and any other country that so much as looked at us wrong would be screwed.
Cool and while we're at it, we should have pasted every christian country for the actions of the IRA. Sorry to sound narky but I'm finding more and more "kill the muslims" attitude in the real world and it is starting to give me the shits.

[ericams2786]

Well the IRA isn't attacking people with nuclear weapons either, so I guess your right, we should just sit here and take it like a big man if our capital was ever nuked by a terrorist.

[cranos]

Well the IRA isn't attacking people with nuclear weapons either, so I guess your right, we should just sit here and take it like a big man if our capital was ever nuked by a terrorist.
So what you are syaing is that if a small group of radicals nukes a city we should round up every person who shares the same religion and execute them? Yeah that'll teach them to muck with the Free World.

[MerryPrankster]

Cool and while we're at it, we should have pasted every christian country for the actions of the IRA. Sorry to sound narky but I'm finding more and more "kill the muslims" attitude in the real world and it is starting to give me the shits.

There is much greater support for AQ in many Islamic than there is for the IRA in Catholic countries. AFAIK, there were no Catholic "foreign fighters" flocking to Ireland to stick it to the heretics, or for that matter, no IRA folks going abroad to fight in non-Irish causes.

Now, I do concede that "kill the Muslims" is a BAD thing. Regardless of what certain people on this board may think, I am not anti-Muslim. In addition to being immoral, "big clumsy retaliation" might actually drive more Muslims to become terrorists--one must be careful.

[Codeman]

not execute them just round them up like in ww2

[ericams2786]

well I agree that you can't just go around killing every Muslim. Now let's think about this situation, terrorism that is. Everytime I watch the news I hear some idiot talking about how we much negotiate and make peace with the terrorists and not provoke them into hating us more. You can't negotiate with a terrorist. So if Al-Qaida did nuke one of our cities would it do any good to not do anything or just talk about how bad an act it was- no. They don't care, they'll do it a hundred times if they can. So what's the next option, invasion of some country? So then you kill innocent civillians anyway and probably don't end terrorism, but just create more as in Iraq. So how do you stop terrorism after a nuke strike on the U.S. or its allies?

[unsunghero]

While we're at it, Canada takes a whole bunch as slave labourers and expends them in the far north, exploiting our diamond, oil, coal, and natural gas reserves. :eek:

[hammo1j]

I think one of the things that has come out of the London bombings is how much of a minority thing AQ is with Muslims. Most Muslims are concerned with their own lives and most Muslim leaders are concerned with maintaining their own hierachies in their own countries.

A staggering thing is that Britain is refusing to deport AQ associates wanted in their own Muslim countries on terrorism charges when the picture usually in our minds is that the Muslim country is providing a safe haven.

Another staggering thing is that the full name for Afganistan AFTER the invasion is the "Islamic Republic of Afganistan". This again puts to the lie that the West needs to or is eradicating Islam.

I think that AQ is a niche organization that attracts nutters, hotheads and the power crazy and OBL is smart enough to realize that and will pitch his marketing accordingly hence the "A bomb in Wardour Street" scenario is unlikely.

[cranos]

well I agree that you can't just go around killing every Muslim. Now let's think about this situation, terrorism that is. Everytime I watch the news I hear some idiot talking about how we much negotiate and make peace with the terrorists and not provoke them into hating us more. You can't negotiate with a terrorist. So if Al-Qaida did nuke one of our cities would it do any good to not do anything or just talk about how bad an act it was- no. They don't care, they'll do it a hundred times if they can. So what's the next option, invasion of some country? So then you kill innocent civillians anyway and probably don't end terrorism, but just create more as in Iraq. So how do you stop terrorism after a nuke strike on the U.S. or its allies?
You starve them off. Organisations like AQ thrive off the misfortunes and gripes real or imagined of oppressed groups. If you start taking away those gripes then AQ has less to entice new recruits with. This is why Iraq was such a bad idea, it turned a country that, while ruled by a Hilter wannabe, had little or no connection with AQ into a place where lining up to start your job in the morning is now a dangerous excercise.

I'm not saying appease the terrorists, anything but. Treat the actual terrorists and their leaders just as you would any other criminal, but don't treat the whole religion/race/other grouping the same as the terrorists.

[Flocculencio]

Well I'd say that if the Muslim world is lucky, they may not be nuked into oblivion.

So where's this Muslim world I keep hearing about?

Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Malaysia, Indonesia, India (with it's massive muslim population), Leicester, Birmingham?

In light of the recent atrocities in Washington DC, the government of the United States is determined to retaliate in kind. Twenty minutes ago, a nuclear device was detonated above the Islamic stronghold of Bradford... :rolleyes:

[Wendell]

There is much greater support for AQ in many Islamic than there is for the IRA in Catholic countries. AFAIK, there were no Catholic "foreign fighters" flocking to Ireland to stick it to the heretics, or for that matter, no IRA folks going abroad to fight in non-Irish causes.

Now, I do concede that "kill the Muslims" is a BAD thing. Regardless of what certain people on this board may think, I am not anti-Muslim. In addition to being immoral, "big clumsy retaliation" might actually drive more Muslims to become terrorists--one must be careful.
No, instead the IRA has spread out, cooperating with gangsters in Colombia.

[Satyrane]

There is much greater support for AQ in many Islamic than there is for the IRA in Catholic countries. AFAIK, there were no Catholic "foreign fighters" flocking to Ireland to stick it to the heretics, or for that matter, no IRA folks going abroad to fight in non-Irish causes.
Not sure the comparison stands up - AQ have an explicitly religious agenda; the IRA's agenda was explicitly political. And there were (largely unsubstantiated, it's true) stories of collaboration between ETTA and the IRA.

There was also substantial support for the cause, if not the methods, of the IRA in certain quarters of the United States. Should all supporters Irish Republicanism around the globe have been 'rounded up'?

[Karlos]

There is a clear perception that USA reaction after terrorists attacks has more to do with their own agenda than with actual justice towards perpetrators. The 11/9 terrorists were saudis. The Madrid bombers from Morocco. The London killers from Pakistan. Then, the USA attacks Iraq and threathens Iran, while Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Morocco, three dictatorships with no respect for human rights and with some of the worst islamic fanatics living there, are considered friends.
So I suspect that after a nuclear attack we would see the same pattern repeated, only much worst.

[hammo1j]

Would be interested in hearing from you guys about what the likely target should be rather than what form the retaliation would be.

Try to second guess what OBL would do if he got hold of such a device. I don't think the answer is as simple as it seems ie Nuke capitols of USA, Israel and GB.

[Dave Howery]

if it was actually OBL behind it, the target would be NYC... he seems to have a special hatred of the place. If some other nut group, the target would probably be Tel Aviv....

[Karlos]

He would only have one chance, so I guess may use it on a USA city. Washington would be the best one from his point of view, as would probably kill most of US governement and politicians. Maybe the Pentagon. But those are well defended targets... How does he get the device through the border? A simplest option is on a ship on New York harbor.
The Tel Aviv option, on the other hand, has the potential of making him a god among the islamic masses around the world and develop real fear induced paranoia in western countryes.

[George Carty]

I'd go for Tel Aviv - Israel is so tiny that one H-bomb could essentially destroy it completely...

[Chengar Qordath]

The main potential problem I can see with using a nuclear weapon on Israel is that the Israeli response will likely be a lot less moderate than the US would be, if any of the Arab states decide to invade in the aftermath of the attack they would probably be nuked in response.

[hammo1j]

What about Al Qaeda obtain 300Kg of pure LSD? Where would they drop that to cause most damage.

Maybe that's the best way to deal with AQ? C90 tankers spraying Lysergic all over the hills of Afganistan and the luvd up OBL is photographed trying to place flowers in the hair of his abductors as he realises the enormity of what he has done...

[Trip_the_light_fantastic]

Target: The target would most definitely be NYC, simply because it is the most densely populated. AQ would want to do the most physical damage possible, and New York City is the best place to do it, after less politically motivated tagets such as Tokyo. The fallout would probably then float across the Eastern Seaboard, upping the death toll.

Tel Aviv is possible (practically the whole of Israel would be evacuated), but it is doubtful that AQ would risk having many radiation casualties in the surrounding middle-eastern countries.

Consequences: Riots. Riots, riots and more riots. Bush's government would be thrown from office within days, no matter how much they, or anyone else protested, because the people would be scared.

Governments across the globe would follow, replaced by right-wing hardliners who would tighten border controls and persecute Muslims. Any country that looks suspicious would be invaded. However, not many would. The "Axis of Evil" and other anti-american states would be falling over themselves to condemn the attacks.

The American economy would not only hit the deck, but get impaled by a large pole on the way down. The world economy would follow. Isolationist policies would set in. Globalisation would grind to a halt as Western populations and governments put pressure on companies stop outsourcing jobs.

Aid and trade regarding developing countries dries up; however, arms spending increases in Muslim countries as jitters increase about hardline Western governments. They war with the West and each other. What with war and a paralysed (still impaled on the pole) world economy, their countries crumble into dust. Muslims become desperate as they see the destruction around them wrought by vengeful Western governments.

The kind of conditions that foster terrorists.

[Mike Stearns]

Al Qaeda sets the timer on their bomb, puts it into a sheilded cargo containter and then puts in on a ship. They time it so that the bomb goes off just as it is being unloaded from the ship. everything with in 10 miles is badly damaged and the port itself is destroyed. World trade grinds to a halt and ecomnomies world wide suffer.

[Wendell]

He would only have one chance, so I guess may use it on a USA city. Washington would be the best one from his point of view, as would probably kill most of US governement and politicians. Maybe the Pentagon. But those are well defended targets... How does he get the device through the border? A simplest option is on a ship on New York harbor.
The Tel Aviv option, on the other hand, has the potential of making him a god among the islamic masses around the world and develop real fear induced paranoia in western countryes.
Have you seen the Southern U.S. border lately?

[Mr_ Bondoc]

-One thing is for certain, the bomb would most likely detonate at sometime before 10:00AM/EST. The reason why is based on the 9/11 and 7/7 attacks. He wants the maximum amount of casualties involved (usually during the morning commute). Second, the destruction would be carried live on all the major television networks, especially considering the fact that the news headquarters for ABC-TV, NBC-TV, and CBS-TV are all located in New York City in a 8 block radius from Rockefeller Center...

-A big site for many of the riots would be the bridges (e.g. the Brooklyn, Queens, et al.) as National Guard troops seal off the city to prevent a spread of radiation poisoning in an effort to decontaminate all victims. Emergency rooms in the tri-state areas would be flooded with victims, with only limited triage capability...

- Considering the amount of damage, fire and rescue crews would be called up to send groups from all across the country. By this point Central Park, probably the only open space in NYC at that point would be turned into a MASH unit hospital. Any electricity that could be spared by triage will be used to help with the morgue since the bodies will turn immediately into a public health problem.

-The sites of Madison Square Garden, Yankee Stadium, NY Mets Stadium are going to be used for the grim task of burning the bodies or the formation of mass graves.

- Don't expect to see the President to appear in Washington D.C. until at least 48 hours later, while the Executive Branch is stationed either at the Strategic Command Center in Lincooln, Nebraska or Cheyenne Mountain near Boulder, CO...

[Wendell]

-One thing is for certain, the bomb would most likely detonate at sometime before 10:00AM/EST. The reason why is based on the 9/11 and 7/7 attacks. He wants the maximum amount of casualties involved (usually during the morning commute). Second, the destruction would be carried live on all the major television networks, especially considering the fact that the news headquarters for ABC-TV, NBC-TV, and CBS-TV are all located in New York City in a 8 block radius from Rockefeller Center...

-A big site for many of the riots would be the bridges (e.g. the Brooklyn, Queens, et al.) as National Guard troops seal off the city to prevent a spread of radiation poisoning in an effort to decontaminate all victims. Emergency rooms in the tri-state areas would be flooded with victims, with only limited triage capability...

- Considering the amount of damage, fire and rescue crews would be called up to send groups from all across the country. By this point Central Park, probably the only open space in NYC at that point would be turned into a MASH unit hospital. Any electricity that could be spared by triage will be used to help with the morgue since the bodies will turn immediately into a public health problem.

-The sites of Madison Square Garden, Yankee Stadium, NY Mets Stadium are going to be used for the grim task of burning the bodies or the formation of mass graves.

- Don't expect to see the President to appear in Washington D.C. until at least 48 hours later, while the Executive Branch is stationed either at the Strategic Command Center in Lincooln, Nebraska or Cheyenne Mountain near Boulder, CO...
And the National Guard may have to open fire to keep things contained.

[Raymann]

Tom Tancredo gets his way and Mecca and Medina are bombed. I'm serious, if they nuke a US city Americans won't care what Muslims think of us, i'd be over.

[Mike Stearns]

Hmmmmmm, yeah, you might have a point. If Bin Laden hit us with a nuke, the gloves would come off and the nukes would be flung around in large quantities.

[Wendell]

Hmmmmmm, yeah, you might have a point. If Bin Laden hit us with a nuke, the gloves would come off and the nukes would be flung around in large quantities.
Well, I'm not sure about numerous nukes being launched in retaliation.

[Mike Stearns]

Well, I'm not sure about numerous nukes being launched in retaliation.

I'm not sure I rule that out. If Bin Laden blew up an American city with a nuclear weapon, the gloves would come off and the world would simply stand aside and let Americans get on with it.

[Doctor What]

Hmmmmmm, yeah, you might have a point. If Bin Laden hit us with a nuke, the gloves would come off and the nukes would be flung around in large quantities.

And who, pray tell, will they be launched against?

The technology exists to tell what kind of bomb did it, how strong it was, what region of the world the uranium/plutonium came from here (every field of uranium is slightly different when it comes to types of isotopes and so forth) and even what manufacturing plants made some of the components--and all within days (maybe even hours) of the detonation--but then what? Without solid intel, you have no idea who did it and--more importantly--where the bastards are.

Start launching nukes at "random" targets and America will go from victim to pariah virtually instantly.

Nope--you do a repeat of the Afghan/Iraq wars--you say that you'll hunt the bastards down while you look for solid intel. If no leads develop, you make some up---and then you go after some of the countries that are on your current shit list.

And you do it without nukes. EVERY country in the world would support any kind of conventional invasion (see Afghan War for good example where even the so-called 'surrender monkeys' French not only completely supported the war but were in the top ten when it came to manpower supplied). Any use of nukes--even as just a theoretical option--and support will fade VERY fast.

And we had a whole big discussion about nuking Mecca in another thread. Bottom line? You do something like that and OBL's army will increase by millions overnight--so, no, don't even think about doing something like that.....

Besides--what's the point of nuking Mecca? This would be like nuking the Vatican because some IRA nuts nuke London--does not compute.....

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Something scary about the last few points, you have soldiers firing on American civilians and American politicians openly discussing the nuking of the holiest of sites for the Muslim world...

Try to imagine how scary it will be for the average person on the streets. For instance in for the large Arab-American communities in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; and Los Angeles, CA consider the massive backlash as people throughout the cities seriously consider a lynch-mob...

Unfortunately this same lynch-mob will strike at those who resemble Arabs as well striking at Indian communities in Los Angeles, CA; Atlanta, GA; San Jose, CA: Chicago, IL; and San Francisco, CA. You are looking at the biggest riots since the Rodney King Riots in 1992....

-On an economic level, expect a disaster greater than the Great Depression. Consider the fact that the Federal Gold Reserve, which contains the gold of 50 countries (see Die Hard 3: With A Vengence ) has just been irradiated or at the very least turned into one melted glob. By tomorrow, the stock price of gold will rise more than 400% based on panic buying alone. You have 25 of the worlds largest brokerage houses along Wall Street destroyed along with their records. That and you are looking at the financial headquarters along with the CEOs of the country's top 20 banks either killed or missing. Panic selling abroad will immediately cause the NYSE to drop at least -2000 points before the Secretary of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Chairman shut the stock exchange down....

Now here's something scary...we've only covered the first 8-12 hours....

[Doctor What]

Effects of a 150 kiloton explosion in NYC (http://www.atomicarchive.com/Example/ExampleStart.shtml)

Create your own Blast map with the U.S. city of your choice (10 kiloton explosion only) (http://www.nuclearterror.org/blastmaps.html)

High Yield Detonation Simulator (http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html)

Dr. Strangelove Slide Rule (http://www.fourmilab.ch/bombcalc/)

[TheLoneAmigo]

There is much greater support for AQ in many Islamic than there is for the IRA in Catholic countries. AFAIK, there were no Catholic "foreign fighters" flocking to Ireland to stick it to the heretics, or for that matter, no IRA folks going abroad to fight in non-Irish causes.

I seem to recall that a large portion of IRA support came from none other than a certain large North American nation...


And no, it's not canada...

[Mr_ Bondoc]

I seem to recall that a large portion of IRA support came from none other than a certain large North American nation...


And no, it's not canada...

Yes, I seem to recall that in many of the writings of Garth Ennis (e.g. Preacher , 303 , Hitman ) , it is often mentioned that there were American volunteers for the IRA, especially in Boston and New York...

But I think the point that Merryprankster was trying to make is that bombing Mecca would be pretty arbitrary, especially considering that it is a religion that covers over 750 million people, most in Indonesia...

Even after 9/11, we had to obtain evidence first of who was the bomber? where did they come from? and were they backed by a state or organization?

The fallout energy/radiation signature of the nuclear weapon, if it displays (as it seems to be implied) that of a former Soviet Union, would certainly cause some major embarassments for the Russian government, especially since it is currently dealing with its own "war on terrorism" in the form of the Chechnyan rebels...

[Redbeard]

As long as terrorist acts happen regulary, and as long as practically all terrorists are Muslims doing it in a religious context, Muslims will to an increasing degree be blamed as a group, no matter that only very few Muslims are terrorists. Nothing can stop that, and certainly not PC.

If nukes are used, it will just accelerate that process by a factor 1000.

I think there are basically three routes it can take. First is Muslim terror actually stopping, but that requires a zealously active cooperation from 99% of Muslims worldwide, and that again probably requires a major reform of Islam and of Muslim tradition. Multiculturalism as an ideal is the most certain victim of the terrorist campaign.

Second route is Muslim terror going on, but ending in a kind of global apartheid, where we stay out of Muslim countries and they stay out of ours - enforced by high-tech border guarding etc. The Israeli fence around the Palestinian territory extended into a global context. Could coincide with less dependemcy on oil. This of course means outright ethnic cleansing and have a serious risk of carrying even worse with it, but would be relatively "mild" compared to the third option of this going crazy in retaliatory actions sledgehammering entire nations.

The striking commonality to all scenarios is that it really isn't our western society that is most threatened, we've seen bigger threats before and survived - also mentally. Even in the "third" scenario, try and count who has the biggest and most "sledgehammers", and in the "first" traditional Islam is deleted. I think many traditionalist Muslims would actually like option two, but the big loosers would be the Muslims in western countries having lead a relatively comfortable life, but now are relegated to fenced off medieval reservations in their original home countries.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[eschaton]

No, instead the IRA has spread out, cooperating with gangsters in Colombia.

The FARC are by no means innocent (or nice) people, but I wouldn't call them 'gangsters.' They've certainly had a cleaner record in the Colombian civil war than the right-wing paramilitaries, which just slaughter unarmed peasant supporters (or suspected supporters) of leftists willy-nilly. And assassinate union organizers.

[Melvin Loh]

Well, there were fears back in 1992 after the FSU's dissolution of Kazakhstan's nuclear arsenal possibly finding its way into the wrong hands, given its Muslim disposition. WI say some proto-AQ fellas who'd fought the Red Army in Afghanistan managed to sneak into Kazakhstan before the Russians reclaimed their toys, and smuggled out a few nuclear warheads ? Where could these terrorists have employed these WMDs ?

[Mike Stearns]

New York, no question. You can bet that if AQ had been able to get their hands on one, they'd have nuked New York for 9/11.

[hammo1j]

The Problem seems to be the perception that the Muslim Nations are pro AQ.

However most of the suicide bombing outside Israel seems to be going on in Muslim Nations.

Turkey (part of Nato) recently took bombs aimed at tourists and the Premier condemned the perps.

Here's a list of Muslim countries (more than 50% Muslim) with Muslim Populations over 1m. I would be interested for someone with better knowledge to identify those:

G: Government likely to support AQ's Jihadist aims.
P: Significant fraction of People support AQ's aims.

For example Iraq, Pakistan would be P
Iran, Somalia would probably be GP
Turkey would be blank.

That way we could get an idea of exactly what the threat is.

Indonesia 213m
Pakistan 156m
Bangladesh 127m
Egypt 71m
Turkey 69m
Iran 67m
Nigeria 64m
Morocco 32m
Algeria 32m
Afghanistan 30m
Sudan 26m
Iraq 25m
Saudi Arabia 25m
Uzbekistan 24m
Yemen 21m
Syria 16m
Malaysia 14m
Mali 11m
Niger 10m
Senegal 10m
Tunisia 10m
Somalia 9m
Guinea 8m
Burkina Faso 8m
Somaliland 8m
Azerbaijan 7m
Tajikistan 7m
Libya 6m
Jordan 5m
Chad 5m
Turkmenistan 4m
Kyrgyzstan 4m
Sierra Leone 4m
Palestinian Territories 3m
Mauritania 3m
Oman 3m
Lebanon 3m
Albania 2m
Eritrea 2m
Kuwait 2m
the United Arab Emirates 2m
Gambia 1m
Qatar 1m
Comoros 1m
Bahrain 1m

[George Carty]

Iran should be blank, as AQ, being quasi-Wahhabi in orientation, hates Shi'as like the Iranians. Along with Russia, Iran was one of the main pre-9/11 supporters of the anti-Taliban resistance...

[Mr_ Bondoc]

In this situation, it is also important to consider something that is almost never considered, which is the "chaos principle"...There will be some raqndom or stupid event that snowballs into a problem...

For instance:
A)During the 9/11 disaster, an Air Madrid flight from Barcelona to NYC was nearly shot down at @3:00PM/EST after it failed to respond to calls to turn back. Fortunately, members of the Strategic Command Center were able to turn the plane around, after a conference call made to Madrid...

B)During 9/11, from 10:00AM-12:00PM, the U.S. Secret Service counted at least 12 possible hijacked planes around trhe White House. Although none of them turned out to be hijacked, the Secret Service almost fired missile launchers from the White House roof at passing aircraft...

C) When Flight 93 went down in Pennsylvania, initial reports stated that the plane had been shotdown by U.S. F-16s, sparking rumors whereby the U.S. was complicit in the bringing down of the plane...

D)During the 7/7 London bombing, for up to 45 minutes, the London Underground continued normal service after the first explosion, with the mistaken belief that the explosion had merely been a "accident"....

[Wendell]

The FARC are by no means innocent (or nice) people, but I wouldn't call them 'gangsters.' They've certainly had a cleaner record in the Colombian civil war than the right-wing paramilitaries, which just slaughter unarmed peasant supporters (or suspected supporters) of leftists willy-nilly. And assassinate union organizers.
Do you have documentation that shows that the ALC is more brutal/kills more people than the FARC?

[Wendell]

Something scary about the last few points, you have soldiers firing on American civilians and American politicians openly discussing the nuking of the holiest of sites for the Muslim world...

Try to imagine how scary it will be for the average person on the streets. For instance in for the large Arab-American communities in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; and Los Angeles, CA consider the massive backlash as people throughout the cities seriously consider a lynch-mob...

Unfortunately this same lynch-mob will strike at those who resemble Arabs as well striking at Indian communities in Los Angeles, CA; Atlanta, GA; San Jose, CA: Chicago, IL; and San Francisco, CA. You are looking at the biggest riots since the Rodney King Riots in 1992....

-On an economic level, expect a disaster greater than the Great Depression. Consider the fact that the Federal Gold Reserve, which contains the gold of 50 countries (see Die Hard 3: With A Vengence ) has just been irradiated or at the very least turned into one melted glob. By tomorrow, the stock price of gold will rise more than 400% based on panic buying alone. You have 25 of the worlds largest brokerage houses along Wall Street destroyed along with their records. That and you are looking at the financial headquarters along with the CEOs of the country's top 20 banks either killed or missing. Panic selling abroad will immediately cause the NYSE to drop at least -2000 points before the Secretary of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Chairman shut the stock exchange down....

Now here's something scary...we've only covered the first 8-12 hours....
Forget the Rodney King Riots, it could get like the 1960's riots.

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Forget the Rodney King Riots, it could get like the 1960's riots.

-Okay, I'll accept that as a premise, so what is happening now? We have a situation that is rapidly getting out of control!!

-In other news, the situation in the tri-state area is pretty bad as people in NY, NJ, and CT begin panicking and decide to hit the highways to avoid the fallout and/or the fear of future attacks...

-Further panic as people flood the Port Authority controlled areas of New York in order to flee the area. You have people sparking small riots at the Staten Island Ferry, the Ellis Island Dropoff, and the Roosevelt Island Ferry. Unfortunately, most National GUard units are emplaced at the bridges...

-Air Force units are being called up to secure the remains of La Guardia And JFK Airports for military and emergency aid and support. You have several problems already. On the ground, you have panicking civilians and officials at the ground level trying to get on any plane out off the area. As such National Guard and Army units are limited in strength. Second, fire from the destruction of NYC has made landing at either airport a hazardous venture. At least 2/3 of the aircraft on the runway is stuck because of the EMP blast. In fact there is at least one 747 on the tarmac on fire because of the blast. Several runways are blocked by planes that were in mid-traffic during the blast....

[Darkest]

After seeing that scenario Doctor What found about hitting New York with a 150 kiloton nuke... man, that just makes me sick. All those people dying immediately, and then all of those others dying slowly to radiation and burns... That would just be a horrible event in the history of the world.

I've never really swallowed how bad Japan had it after they were nuked. If what would happen in NYC happened already at Hiroshima, well, that really sucks.

Usually I consider myself resistant to the imaginings of battles and mass casualties. Its just war, right? Hmmm...

[luakel]

-Okay, I'll accept that as a premise, so what is happening now? We have a situation that is rapidly getting out of control!!

-In other news, the situation in the tri-state area is pretty bad as people in NY, NJ, and CT begin panicking and decide to hit the highways to avoid the fallout and/or the fear of future attacks...

-Further panic as people flood the Port Authority controlled areas of New York in order to flee the area. You have people sparking small riots at the Staten Island Ferry, the Ellis Island Dropoff, and the Roosevelt Island Ferry. Unfortunately, most National GUard units are emplaced at the bridges...

-Air Force units are being called up to secure the remains of La Guardia And JFK Airports for military and emergency aid and support. You have several problems already. On the ground, you have panicking civilians and officials at the ground level trying to get on any plane out off the area. As such National Guard and Army units are limited in strength. Second, fire from the destruction of NYC has made landing at either airport a hazardous venture. At least 2/3 of the aircraft on the runway is stuck because of the EMP blast. In fact there is at least one 747 on the tarmac on fire because of the blast. Several runways are blocked by planes that were in mid-traffic during the blast....

And while this is all going on in the tri-state, people across the nation are hearing that the city that is probably the closest to being a symbol of America has been destroyed, probably by Muslims. Expect a racial backlash like none before. All the cities with high Muslim populations will be experiencing urban warfare as whites attack Muslims and Muslims try to defend themselves. What do you think the reaction in Washington would be?

[wkwillis]

Keep in mind that those thirty million panicking suburbanites evacuating from the New York city area after the urban core had been destroyed would be armed with about twenty million weapons.
The evacuation of the other urban areas would be slower and not as disorganised as the New York City evacuations. Just a big holiday weekend type evacuation that lasted a week. Some people would just send their kids away and stay behind as a gamble.

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Keep in mind that those thirty million panicking suburbanites evacuating from the New York city area after the urban core had been destroyed would be armed with about twenty million weapons.
The evacuation of the other urban areas would be slower and not as disorganised as the New York City evacuations. Just a big holiday weekend type evacuation that lasted a week. Some people would just send their kids away and stay behind as a gamble.

Here's apoint to make things even more F'd up...Consider the fact that those thirty million surbabanites are going to be trapped by two things. First, is going to be the fact that the electromagnetic pulse knocked out every car that was on the road in the tri-state area at the time. Unless the driver was clever enough to turn his engine off at the time of the blast, the car becomes a major roadblock. Also, consider the fact that this happened most likely during rush hour commute...your going to have a lot of roadblocks!!

[reddie]

What if Osama threatens to blow himself up with the nuke to get superpowers? Firestorm, the nuclear Ghazi?

[Mr_ Bondoc]

What if Osama threatens to blow himself up with the nuke to get superpowers? Firestorm, the nuclear Ghazi?

I'm going to pretend that you didn't just do that....C'mon...this isn't the ASB area!!

[Ian the Admin]

not execute them just round them up like in ww2

That sounds to me like advocating racism and/or oppression on religious grounds. Don't start that on this forum.

[Ian the Admin]

And who, pray tell, will they be launched against?

The technology exists to tell what kind of bomb did it, how strong it was, what region of the world the uranium/plutonium came from here (every field of uranium is slightly different when it comes to types of isotopes and so forth) and even what manufacturing plants made some of the components--and all within days (maybe even hours) of the detonation--but then what? Without solid intel, you have no idea who did it and--more importantly--where the bastards are.


Indeed. If the bomb was obviously stolen or black market (i.e. Russian origin), the US isn't going to nuke Russia. The problem against retaliating with nuclear weapons against any nuclear power is that, hey, *they're a nuclear power*. They are capable of retaliating - even the ones that can't hit the US directly, can hit American allies and can be much more effective than Al Qaeda at retaliatory nuclear terrorism (their intelligence agents know how to infiltrate other countries, and they have lots of nukes to work with).

The problem with these "gloves come off" fantasies is that the US doesn't have "gloves" on in the first place - it's already invaded Afghanistan, the country most linked to Al Qaeda, and launched a full scale war and occupation of Iraq, which was simply a target of opportunity that they connected to Al Qaeda with misdirection and lies. Muslims even vaguely suspected were rounded up by the thousands and detained without charge after 9/11, ultimately to no effect with all of them being released. Terrorist suspects have been captured from countries around the world, detained indefinitely without charge, tortured, and frequently still held even after it's determined that they have no connection to terrorism.

The only way for the US to get "tougher" is to launch attacks at allies, or launch more attacks against countries with no connection to Al Qaeda.

Unfortunately, the public pressure on the US government to do something like that would be huge. But any such action would be completely counterproductive. An intelligent leadership would know they were between a rock and a hard place - they'd be stupendously unpopular if they didn't attack *someone*, but they wouldn't have a single legitimate target for the large-scale retaliation that people would want (nukes and/or invasion). This unfortunately is the type of scenario where they might be strongly tempted to be "creative", finding the country they'd most like to attack if they had to attack *someone*, and just pinning the blame on them.

[Grimm Reaper]

In addition to the populations presented by hammo1j I would like to mention the existance of large Muslim minority populations in many other nations. For instance, the Muslim minority in India actually outnumbers the entire population of Pakistan or Bangladesh.

Given such figures, it does not take a large percentage to have an alarming number of Muslims willing to commit or support or just accept all manner of bad things if they should happen.

If we conducted similar surveys among other major religions, what kind of percentage should we consider alarming?

One-tenth of one percent of all Christian or Buddhists or Hindus would be roughly twice the manpower of the entire US Army.

How to differentiate between the ones who would accept bad things as vindication versus those who would actually commit the bad things?

What should we do about them, especially what we might call the 'pipe-dreamers', who will take good things as they come but otherwise live as the always have?

Will we be treating Muslims with similar attitudes in the same way or are we going to handle them differently for the 'crime' of being Muslim?

[Dave Howery]

my God. Even Ian is now struck with the desire to resurrect old threads. The infection is spreading.... it must be burned out! Send in the holy cleansing fire!

[Doctor What]

my God. Even Ian is now struck with the desire to resurrect old threads. The infection is spreading.... it must be burned out! Send in the holy cleansing fire!

That brings up an interesting religious conundrum.

Can holy cleansing fire cleanse a figure who is already a god? Won't there be some kind of 'matter-antimatter' thing going on there? Can there--in fact--be different types of holy cleansing fire?

Conundrums.....

[Aldroud]

The FARC are by no means innocent (or nice) people, but I wouldn't call them 'gangsters.' They've certainly had a cleaner record in the Colombian civil war than the right-wing paramilitaries, which just slaughter unarmed peasant supporters (or suspected supporters) of leftists willy-nilly. And assassinate union organizers.


I can see you've never been to Columbia or worked with any of their military forces. The 'right-wing' in Columbia is a creation of the Western (liberal) media. The nation that closest embodies the ideas of American democracy (Constitutionalism, universal sufferage, etc) is Columbia.

The rest is propoganda.

[Keenir]

I'd go for Tel Aviv - Israel is so tiny that one H-bomb could essentially destroy it completely...

...but that would risk damaging the Dome of the Rock.

and that's a no-no.

[Mike Stearns]

...but that would risk damaging the Dome of the Rock.

and that's a no-no.

Yeah, Jerusalem is almost as big in the Muslim faith as it is in Judeaism and Christianity. It may not be Mecca, but its still one of the holier cities in the Muslim world. I don't think they'd risk damaging it.

[Ian the Admin]

my God. Even Ian is now struck with the desire to resurrect old threads. The infection is spreading.... it must be burned out! Send in the holy cleansing fire!

Son of a bitch... someone reported a post to me and I just automatically replied with a warning message without checking the date.

[danielb1]

This situation would not be good.. a 150k+ nuke on NYC could easily kill half a million people, probably many more....

The gloves come off. The US isn't going to stand for any dithering. We probably see the US force Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, et al to accept US 'assistance' in getting rid of Al-Qaeda. We also probably see the US send an ultamatum to either Syria and/or Iran, depending on who has been giving more aid to Al-Qaeda/whoever. We probably don't see the US randomly nuking cities, but tac nukes will almost certainly be used against underground installations.

Almost no one will object to torturing terror suspects, or draconian border measures, or wiretapping. After all, not doing those things just cost the US a million people.

The US will see some pretty serious riots - possibly even lynchings and such, too. It might not be all one-sided, either: there are some muslims in the US sympathetic to Al-Qaeda, and those who are not might not be too happy with the situation either.

The draft will be reinstated. No other choice, really; World War III will have started.

[Darkest]

Hey! Attention! On one of my old threads! Thank you for the honor!

[Mojo]

I thought Israel had a David-Goliath doctrine thing were if one nuke went off in Israel they would take out all major middle eastern cities...or it may have been a dream...

[Dave Howery]

That brings up an interesting religious conundrum.

Can holy cleansing fire cleanse a figure who is already a god? Won't there be some kind of 'matter-antimatter' thing going on there? Can there--in fact--be different types of holy cleansing fire?

Conundrums.....
I see you cling to the sad notion that I.A.N. is a god instead of the computer program 'he' actually is. Pity.

[Darkest]

Intelligent Artificial eNtity?

[Straha]

That could work..

[dmz23]

How about detonating the bomb in a relatively small city in east europe or Africa.It may not cause as much damage,but the psychological effect would be pretty profound on the western democracies[after all half of al-Qaedas campaign is psychological warfare].

[Mike Stearns]

How about detonating the bomb in a relatively small city in east europe or Africa.It may not cause as much damage,but the psychological effect would be pretty profound on the western democracies[after all half of al-Qaedas campaign is psychological warfare].

Yeah, but the other half is pure spectacle. I mean, if Bin Laden wanted he could have just had someone plant a bomb on an air plane, but he wanted to grab everyone's attention, so he put together a plan that was both spectacular and really messy, hence 9/11. I do believe, though that if Bin Laden had tried to nuke New York City, it would have been a grave mistake on his part.

[The Abyss]

After reading the recent National Geographic article on nuclear weapons, it seems that terrorists might be able to do serious damage against Western nations that will be able to make 9/11 look like a warning shot.

What if the Al-Qaeda somehow attained a hydrogen bomb, say, 300 kilotons? It would be able to decimate almost everything within a 4.6 mile (7.4 km) radius. It could also be carried by something as simple as a truck or small boat. If they just obtained this weapon today, what would the Al-Qaeda try to do? How and where would they sneak the bomb through, what country would they attack, and what city?

What would result from such a nuclear attack?

Discuss.

1) i would think it would be a truck, planned like the McFey bombing.
2) I would have to say Washington DC. and then again, duh
3)they would take boats from Cuba*, land at a Private dock, and then set out in a truck.
4) death, destruction, rinse, repeat.

[Sargon]

Apparently US ports have radiological devices that can detect such nuclear material by scanning incoming vessels even if it is encased in lead deep inside a ship's hold.

The terrorists would need to get past that first.

Sargon

[Grimm Reaper]

Actually I should mention that Ian is a god among us, Dave Howery is the computer program.

Some time ago, while discussing the likely ramifications of Straha as POTUS a discussion between Dave Howery on one hand and myself, Doctor What, and Mr Bon_doc on the other got somewhat out of control.

After the unfortunate events, far too graphic to post here, we did not feel that Dave Howery would be able to function in society with any degree of credibility so we sent him to a nice institution which shall remain nameless right next door to Romulus Augustulus' firing range and set up a computer program to take his place.

Really, it wasn't hard. Just set every third comment to express hostility and/or aggression towards Canada and we were well on the way.

[Dave Howery]

Actually I should mention that Ian is a god among us, Dave Howery is the computer program.

Some time ago, while discussing the likely ramifications of Straha as POTUS a discussion between Dave Howery on one hand and myself, Doctor What, and Mr Bon_doc on the other got somewhat out of control.

After the unfortunate events, far too graphic to post here, we did not feel that Dave Howery would be able to function in society with any degree of credibility so we sent him to a nice institution which shall remain nameless right next door to Romulus Augustulus' firing range and set up a computer program to take his place.

Really, it wasn't hard. Just set every third comment to express hostility and/or aggression towards Canada and we were well on the way.

right. And this is brought to us by Grimm Reaper, who would never mislead or lie to us....

**obligatory sarcasm warning**

[Grimm Reaper]

That Dave, always being sarcastic...:p

In truth, I am hurt, nay, sorely wounded by this accusation from my long-time comrade of the board. That he would actually challenge my veracity and malign my fundamental honesty and integrity.:eek:

That he would actually call into question the truthfulness of a known and raging cynic, a man who calls himself a Metternichian misanthrope, an infamous right-wing bottom-feeder AND a government employee all rolled into one. That really hurts...:(

I'm going to have to reboot system H.O.W.E.R.Y. now. Hope we don't lose too much memory.

[Jbenuniv]

They'd undoubtedly nuke either New York or Washington. Those two cities symbolize America and Western civilization more than any other cities. Sorry, Europe, but they do hate us more. Assuming the president survived, several countries would be eradicated. Probably North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran.

[Torqumada]

Apparently US ports have radiological devices that can detect such nuclear material by scanning incoming vessels even if it is encased in lead deep inside a ship's hold.

The terrorists would need to get past that first.

Sargon

Actually they can't. That is one of the big scares right now. Pack something in enough lead and no equipment can detect it. The only thing that lead doesn't really slow down are nutrinos. The only way to prevent a nuclear device from being smuggled into the country, is direct visual inspection of each and every cargo container, but the Bush administration has decided that isn't the way to go. I guess they may change their monds when the first American city erupts into a nuclear fireball.

Torqumada

[Floid]

Assuming the president survived, several countries would be eradicated. Probably North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran.Err... why?

[NapoleonXIV]

I can see you've never been to Columbia or worked with any of their military forces. The 'right-wing' in Columbia is a creation of the Western (liberal) media. The nation that closest embodies the ideas of American democracy (Constitutionalism, universal sufferage, etc) is Columbia.

The rest is propoganda.

Yes, their death squads even brought back old Viking traditions, during La Violencia they revived the "blood eagle"

Of course that was all the other side, and the armed forces you apparently worked with, of course, had no propaganda of their own.

[ljofa]

If I were in charge of Al-Qaeda, I would think long and hard before deploying such a device. I would either keep my mouth shut about it and use it as a last-ditch attack on someone because the reprisals would be just too much to bear.

I could take it to La Palma and test the theory that if the island fell into the Atlantic, it would create a tidal wave a kilometer high to swamp the east coast of the USA.

I could detonate it in the skies above the the centre of the USA creating a massive EMP to cripple the USA.

I could trigger it under the ocean to create another tidal wave....somewhere.

I could detonate the bomb in a Muslim country and blame the west.

I could detonate along a fault line somewhere in the world to see what would happen.

However, I probably would sell it to the Iranians for huge amounts of money and buy lots of smaller bombs.

[Jbenuniv]

Err... why?

As to why, these are countries, firstly, that would be most likely to give a nuke, or nuclear technology, something like that, to terrorists. Would you risk them giving out more nukes? Assuming you were president. I wouldn't. I don't think Russia, China, France, Britain, Israel, etc. would be dumb enough to give terrorists a nuclear weapon.

[MrP]

As to why, these are countries, firstly, that would be most likely to give a nuke, or nuclear technology, something like that, to terrorists. Would you risk them giving out more nukes? Assuming you were president. I wouldn't. I don't think Russia, China, France, Britain, Israel, etc. would be dumb enough to give terrorists a nuclear weapon.

Floid's question is because you used the verb "to eradicate". That implies not regime change, not a limited military invasion to secure potentially unsafe military items, but the annihilation of the country and its people. I hope you don't really believe that genocide would be the appropriate response to a terrorist use of nuclear weapons.