Future History

[Darkest]

A little break from the world of What-Ifs and PODs.

What do you think will happen in the future? Anywhere from the rest of 2005 to 2300. There aren't any themes*, no 'goal' that we are trying to steer history towards, just what would be the most realistic series of events that could occur? Events technological, political, ecological, all sorts should be discussed.

My secondary reason for making this thread other than merely to discuss Future History is that I want to write the 'Perfect Future History' that leads to somewhere around the 2200s, 2300s or so. To help this develop, I want to use everyone's opinions and suggestions to achieve this perfection. It is to my belief that throwing all of these ideas in a melting pot while maintaining continuity in the timeline should prove very interesting and fun to read.

Anyway, there it is. To start off, I would like to bring you to the topic of induced hibernation. Most of the info I've found from this page on wikipedia. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_sulfide#Induced_hibernation) Using hydrogen sulfide, it allows suspended animation, decreasing metabolism.

If this could be developed and implemented in say, the next five years, what would the effects be if paramedics could use hydrogen sulfide to 'suspend' wounded individuals to allow for more time to get them to a hospital? Could people freeze themselves if they wanted to conserve time they don't need by slowing themselves down to 0.1% of normal speed?

Discuss. (?)

[Straha]

Some notes on technology to consider: Antigravity(especially high level in this case), FTL travel, worldchanging nanotech(as in a nanotech revolution on the scale of the industrial revolution), true AI(as in an AI which becomes smarter faster and faster) and an all encompassing holodeck type simulated reality are all things I see as taking a LONG time as in a few tens of millenia at the earlist and 200 millienia at the latest. The world of 3150 probably doesn't look that different from ours except the computers are all small like current PDAS, the solar system is terraformed and we've got a couple other systems under our belt. Cancer is most likely cured by the 2500's. Genetic engineering most likely starts reshaping humanity beginning in the next few decades. People's skin color adapting to the amount of sunlight(or being odd like grey colored skin), colors of the hair and eyes that are currently nonexisten(as in blue hair or bright orange eyes). Thanks to the genetic modifications, the global warming, the damage to the UV zone and immigration from latin america/the middle east/asia the average person in our current western nations by the 2500's likely ends up normally having a skin color as dark as alot of people who live in the mideast or northern mexico.

future world powers to watch: Brazil, south africa, russia(they've got the resources and if they get a good government...) and singapore(think switzerland but for data. Its not a stretch to see singapore as a pirate data haven).

[Justin Pickard]

I think we'll reach a singularity point in the future, beyond which things will just be moving too fast and chaotically to accurately predict. As the world becomes more interlinked, the butterfly effect will only become more prevalent.

[NomadicSky]

I hope they hurry up and find a cure for hiv-aids. I know some great people who just need a cure... :(

[Straha]

I think we'll reach a singularity point in the future, beyond which things will just be moving too fast and chaotically to accurately predict. As the world becomes more interlinked, the butterfly effect will only become more prevalent.
the singularity effect is VERY implausible IMO

[Darkest]

I don't think that technology will accelerate. Calm me blind and ignorant, but I think that the tech boom will slow down. More advanced technology will require brighter and more intelligent minds, and sooner or later we will run out of the needed brainpower to advance as quickly.

By 2100, I presume that we will be back on track as we did in the Middle Ages. Not technologically, but by the rate of which we advance. It will take hundreds of years before we discover a new medical breakthrough that will allow us to achieve brilliance once again. We'll have another boom, slow down for a long time, another major advancement, and then a slow period.

But by that time rampant nanotech will link up to a unified AI network and eradicate humanity.

So, let's assume technological singularity will never occur, that our advancement will slow down, and FTL travel is impossible. Just to keep things easier to understand.

[DMA]

The next century will be the most testing of times for our planet. Forget about WW1 & WW2, as well as the Cold War, what's coming will make them look like traffic accidents. Anyways, here's a quick step by step prophecy:


1) The Environment


a) The environmental damage done during the 19th & 20th Centuries is going to catch up with us. Greenhouse will make the world's temperatures rise by around 3 to 5 degree Celsius. This will melt enough ice to rise the worlds oceans by at least 1 to 2 metres. The resulting flooding will effect billions of people on a global scale costing billions of dollars to fix. It’s likely that there’ll be millions of homeless in Third World Countries who won’t be able to cope with the refugee problems. Many will die as a result. The economies of the Western World will be greatly effected.

b) The Greenhouse effect will also play havoc with weather patterns in general. Not only will great storms create great damage around the world, regardless of country, but drought will also effect many more regions that are already arid to some extent. The result is, not only more refugees, but the cost involved. Again Western Countries will probably be able to cover these costs, but the Third World won’t. Furthermore, there’ll be less food production, due to the sever weather, meaning starvation will become even more widespread than is currently the case.

c) Along with the warming up of the Earth, as well as changes in weather patterns, the oceans of the Earth will lower in temperature. When this happens, not only will algae and vegetation be effected, and possibly die off, but the it’s possible that a new Ice Age will come (although not as fast as popularised by Hollywood). The more dangerous aspect is, though, if the algae & ocean vegetation is significantly reduced, as contrary to popular belief the world’s oceans are the lungs of the Earth & not the worlds forests, we're in serious trouble. If the oceans are thus greatly effected to such a degree, then we all eventually die.


2) The Two Decades of Death


a) Throughout the Western World, and indeed throughout Eastern Europe & Russia, the Baby Boomer generation is growing old. It also, depending upon which particular country, makes up something like 45% of the population (in some cases it’s even higher). From about 2020-2040, however, the Baby Boomers will start dying off. This will mean a dramatic drop in everyone’s population within a twenty year period. Many countries, considering our need for continued growth based upon markets & economics, may not survive. Ironically China, with it’s strict population controls, will endure this same cycle from about 2040 onwards & probably have the same great problems even with a much larger population overall.

b) leading on from this, economies will be under sever pressure from 2010 when the Baby Boomers leave the work force. They'll begin relying upon social security & pensions. Governments will somehow have to find the money to pay for all this. In the USA alone, this is already known to be impossible. Furthermore, 40% or so of the overall population, even with social security, will inevitably spend a lot less than is currently the case. Similarly, what they will spend will be concentrated in medial & care industries, instead of across the board. With a sudden & significant reduction in spending, will mean a sudden reduction in government revenues made from taxes which will further the problems of pay for pensions & social security.

c) With governments now burdened with paying for the Baby Boomers retirement, Western & Eastern European governments worldwide will have to cut funding elsewhere. This will mean areas such as education, policing, industry support, research, regional development, aid to the Third World, and so forth will be cut, although funding for the medical & associated industries will benefit due to the very fact that at least 40% of the population will require constant medical support.

d) Allied with these problems will be the sudden downturn in the global economy. With a cut back in the spending by Baby Boomers, and governments, there won’t be as much to spend by the general public. Less demand means less products. Less products mean less jobs. Less jobs mean less income, and less income means less spending. And so the cycle will continue until market stability finally results. This will, alas, mean a decade or two of world wide depression something akin to the Great Depression of the 1930s but only worse.


3) Reduction of Resources


a) Oil is probably the biggest problem here, and although the warnings that oil will soon run out have been around for decades, well sooner or later it will be true. But far more importantly, even if new fields are discovered, its not the running out that maybe the problem, but that the demand for oil will greatly out pace production. This is the current problem, especially with China becoming more & more thirsty for oil, as motor vehicles & oil hungry industries, demand more & more oil. Meanwhile, alternative technologies to power motor vehicles & industry are still some way off, so demand is still going to come from Europe, the USA, and everywhere else to power our cars. Sooner or later, oil will become far too expensive & governments will have to make tough decisions in either banning cars, introducing ethanol, &/or going to war in order to seize oil resources. However, the banning of cars will cause all sorts of civil problems possibly involving civil wars within nations.

b) At the very least it’ll be politically wise, extremely unpopular in countries like the USA, & thus it will be extremely unlikely than any national government will ban cars & the like. Instead, the oil demands of these countries will porbably remain about the same thus demanding a different & more acceptable solution.

c) Forcing the transport sector to use Ethanol is a viable solution, as is the case in Brazil, but then come two problems. The first is the oil companies will fight tooth and nail to stop such a dramatic change to their monopoly as they’ll no longer profit, by the billions of dollars, if ethanol is used instead. This will be hard for any government to ignore - thab being the power of the oil corporation. But an even bigger problem, in order to produce Ethanol, is that the fuel needs to be grown (more than likely from sugar). This means millions of acres of farmland will have to be converted meaning significant amounts of food will no longer be produced. Now there may still be enough food produced for the advanced Western & European countries of the world, but not elsewhere. As a result, billions could stave due to the sudden reduction of food production.

d) And finally war could be the result of lack of oil (not to mention other natural resources) &/or food. Countries, regardless who they are, could simply go to war over the need to acquire adequate resources to keep their respective country going at an acceptable standard. These wars could be started by anyone, regardless whether they be a democracy or a dictatorship. World War III, involving the use of nuclear weapons on a large scale, could quite possibly thus take place, well within the next 30 years, due to a number of factors: the continuous increases in the price of oil; faltering economies; reluctance of governments to make extremely unpopular domestic decisions; and desperate populations seeking desperate actions.


I think I'll leave it there...

If we make it to 2050 then we may enjoy a great & glorious future among the stars. If we make it that far…

[lasvegan2005]

Despite occasional reports that population growth will slow or won't present a problem, I believe the population explosion (and I'm talking mainly about the Third World) is the single most pervasive and all-important problem that has massive ripple effects on every other issue and concern of humanity, including political, religious, and inter-civilizational conflicts, resources, food, the environment (and global warming), technology, public health and diseases (look at all the 'new' viruses and epidemics appearing) and even our political systems.

For instance, the current rash of "failed states" in the Third World stems directly from population outsripping the ability of a country's political and technological infrastructure to deal with the demands from too many people. Somalia might not have a high population density, but all that's necessary is for the cities to be awash in too many people (migrating from the country and desert), and the cities break down because they don't have the economic and technical capacity for that kind of population load. Consequently there is chaos and the political system breaks down. Once a governmental structure breaks down like that, it becomes like a stock on the NYSE that is played... nobody has an interest in propping it up anymore, because the point of diminishing returns has long since been reached and economically, it's a lost proposition.

Look for a lot more Third World countries, especially ones that are somewhat isolated from richer neighbors, to break down and become "failed states".... Chad, the CAR, Congo (ex Zaire), Niger (speaking of Plame), Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, Myanmar (maybe), Nepal, and in our hemisphere, Bolivia, Paraguay, Suriname, and Honduras might be good candidates. Colombia looks like it's on its way, but still a lot of wealth exists there (mostly illicit). Honduras may go the route of Columbia even faster, becoming mostly a haven for drug cartels.

All of this is ULTIMATELY due to population pressures. The Third World is gradually coming up against its inherent "carrying capacity". Massive new infusions of technology are the only way that will be fixed, and no time soon.

I am 40 years old now. As early as the late 1980s (the GHW Bush Administration), I predicted there would be a wave of failed states in remote areas of the Third World which would become havens for movements plotting CATASTROPHIC mega-terrorist acts against the West.

[DMA]

Despite occasional reports that population growth will slow or won't present a problem, I believe the population explosion (and I'm talking mainly about the Third World) is the single most pervasive and all-important problem that has massive ripple effects on every other issue and concern of humanity, including political, religious, and inter-civilizational conflicts, resources, food, the environment (and global warming), technology, public health and diseases (look at all the 'new' viruses and epidemics appearing) and even our political systems.

For instance, the current rash of "failed states" in the Third World stems directly from population outsripping the ability of a country's political and technological infrastructure to deal with the demands from too many people. Somalia might not have a high population density, but all that's necessary is for the cities to be awash in too many people (migrating from the country and desert), and the cities break down because they don't have the economic and technical capacity for that kind of population load. Consequently there is chaos and the political system breaks down. Once a governmental structure breaks down like that, it becomes like a stock on the NYSE that is played... nobody has an interest in propping it up anymore, because the point of diminishing returns has long since been reached and economically, it's a lost proposition.

Look for a lot more Third World countries, especially ones that are somewhat isolated from richer neighbors, to break down and become "failed states".... Chad, the CAR, Congo (ex Zaire), Niger (speaking of Plame), Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, Myanmar (maybe), Nepal, and in our hemisphere, Bolivia, Paraguay, Suriname, and Honduras might be good candidates. Colombia looks like it's on its way, but still a lot of wealth exists there (mostly illicit). Honduras may go the route of Columbia even faster, becoming mostly a haven for drug cartels.

All of this is ULTIMATELY due to population pressures. The Third World is gradually coming up against its inherent "carrying capacity". Massive new infusions of technology are the only way that will be fixed, and no time soon.


Now whilst I agree with much of the above, the same can be true when the population decreases at a high rate. This is the case with the Baby Boomer Generation. Importantly, it's not me saying this, but almost every Western & European government around. You only have to look at the debates currently taking place in Congress over Social Security. My country, Australia, is in the same boat as are everyone elses in this regards. More importantly, countries like Poland, Russia & so forth are going to suffer even more so than their Western counterparts.

Will most of these Western countries fall apart though akin to the list of African countries that are listed? I extremely doubt it. But we'll have it rough until our respective countries have gotten over the effects of the "Two Decades of Death", with the stablisation of the economy, and then we can begin rebuilding.

Of course all this rapid change in populations is merely only one aspect of the near future. There's still the environment, which I rate as a bigger concern, plus dwindling resources.

[MarkA]

Whatever you speculate the future will bring, you will be wrong. But it is fun to speculate!

Certainly the environment in the case of global warming will be THE issue that will shape everything else. Probably it is already too late to do anything about the rise of temps and so the climate will certainly change. How that change will affect humanity is impossible to say. Except the transitional period will not be very pleasant. Since our societies evolve according to Lamarckian principles, our chances of successful adaption is good. Our physical adaption is still governed by Darwinian principles of course so our use of genetic manipulation may have less ethical constraints than it does now.

Our ethics in general will have to change absolutely to cope with the mass of refugees caused by the rises in sea levels and the widespread crop failures.

[Chengar Qordath]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

When global warming turns out to be a natural climate fluctuation environmentalists either make up some new crisis to make people panic about, or actually try to turn public attention to real environmental issues.

The world economy will be put under a lot of stress by the demographic and resource issues others have pointed out in this thread already, but eventually will recover (barring an apocalyptic nuclear war).

Of course hopefully government will have moved past the primitive mob rule that prevails in so much of the world, and moved on a more stable and sensible form of government. Ideally this will be supplemented by efforts to stabilise and improve developing nations, and with increasing development of a world identity that will eventually overcome national and religious ones.

[NapoleonXIV]

None of the above

All of the disaster scenarios ignore the old adage that necessity is the mother of invention. As humanity is faced with new problems we will invent new things to take care of them.

The idea that we simply will be unable to understand a world much more complex than our own ignores the fact that one person alone has been unable to take in all of human knowledge since about 1700. Life is complicated, but we've gotten used to it.

Global warming, whether real or imagined and avoidable or not, does not mean the end of humanity or even widespread dislocation unless you are saying it will happen literally overnight. See the several threads in here on the recent big time Hollywood movie about that. In climactic change there will be losers, yes, who get new deserts where once there were farms, but there will also be new farms where now there is tundra.

IIRC in 1970, we were all supposed to be dead by now

Right now, the main bottlenecks all get back to energy, at one point or another. Fusion, which may be a reality as this is written, will take care of that.

No, the main problem in 2100 will be how to deal with immortality. According to many reputable scientists, the generation alive then will almost certainly have the ability to live forever at about age 20. I don't care what anyone says now, I don't believe anyone will turn it down if it is an option; but how will our religions and philosophies approach the idea of life without death.

[DMA]

None of the above

All of the disaster scenarios ignore the old adage that necessity is the mother of invention. As humanity is faced with new problems we will invent new things to take care of them.

The idea that we simply will be unable to understand a world much more complex than our own ignores the fact that one person alone has been unable to take in all of human knowledge since about 1700. Life is complicated, but we've gotten used to it.

Global warming, whether real or imagined and avoidable or not, does not mean the end of humanity or even widespread dislocation unless you are saying it will happen literally overnight. See the several threads in here on the recent big time Hollywood movie about that. In climactic change there will be losers, yes, who get new deserts where once there were farms, but there will also be new farms where now there is tundra.

IIRC in 1970, we were all supposed to be dead by now

Right now, the main bottlenecks all get back to energy, at one point or another. Fusion, which may be a reality as this is written, will take care of that.

No, the main problem in 2100 will be how to deal with immortality. According to many reputable scientists, the generation alive then will almost certainly have the ability to live forever at about age 20. I don't care what anyone says now, I don't believe anyone will turn it down if it is an option; but how will our religions and philosophies approach the idea of life without death.


Well this maybe the case - if we survive to 2100 ;)

[jolo]

Right now, the main bottlenecks all get back to energy, at one point or another. Fusion, which may be a reality as this is written, will take care of that.

No, the main problem in 2100 will be how to deal with immortality. According to many reputable scientists, the generation alive then will almost certainly have the ability to live forever at about age 20. I don't care what anyone says now, I don't believe anyone will turn it down if it is an option; but how will our religions and philosophies approach the idea of life without death.

I pretty much agree with you. Only fusion I'm not so sure about. Also, I believe that there will be explosive medical advances in the next decades. But they will only lead to a "theoretical immortality" - people will still die of accidents, catastrophes, mürder, suicide, a few illnesses not curable, and so on. I'm also not sure if the necessary transport of a "healing virus" to every single human cell can be done in a grown up - maybe only our children will profit from all the possibilties of genetic technology, and that might be slowed down by religious and similar quagmires.

The dangers coming up in the next decades to centuries are underestimated by most people, imo. We will definitely have artificial intelligence, probably even within 10 to 30 years, and it could easily surpass our intelligence quickly. I'm not so sure about whether this intelligence will develop a kind of "will to survive" or even a "will to spread". But I'm sure it could easily get the idea. The nations who have such intelligences will see economic advances unbelievable today - just think about the potential for designing computerchips, for doing genetic or other research, and so on. That could even be done "environmentally friendly". The people in a war with such a country will pretty much feel like the humans in Battle Star Galactica - but without the Galactica. And as a country with robots and artificial intelligence doesn't need any humans anymore, that may be the way to go if things go *really* bad.

[Redbeard]

The future belongs to gardening!

Instead of digging for a dimishing amounts of minerals etc. and having ugly industrial plants produce whatever we need, and a lot of waste, genetically improved real green plants will be used to grow anything from medicine, fuel and construction materials. Steel and metal alloys will appear incredibly oldfashioned and cumbersome compared to the new kinds of timber. Spacecraft will be built of plywood and tied together with material produced by genetically improved spiders. The first one of course ought to be named "Mosquito". The gardening production is still quite complicated however, and generally require both superb infrastructure and education.

The parts of the world that in the previous decades had prospered on cheap labour for traditional industry are set back again, as the new "green" products take the markets. They of course hope and work for having the new products produced on the often fertile souls of their countries, but much of that soil is poluted from the industrial period, and seeds, patents etc are zealously guarded by governments and monopoly companys.

To a great degree the world will be divided by the "wodden walls" dividing those mastering the new technology and those not. To a large degree this means a border between the non-Muslims and Muslims. Several factors played in. First the terrorist actions by fanatical Muslims going on well into the 21st century, eventually involving WoMD motivated governments in the countries being hit to practically exclude cointact with the Muslim world and by more or less gentle methods etnically cleansing their territories for Muslims. Next nobody needed oil any longer and combined with educational ambitions lagging far behind the Muslim world is now largely a number of "Closed Zones". A very popular TV programe is made up of film clips from the closed zones taken by insect size surveillance drones, and to the general thrill of the ordience showing all kinds of "barbarian activity".

Many places in the rest of the world do however have reservations of amish-like people insisting on not using the new technoligies but wearing 20th century clothes, listening to 20th century music etc. Some are literally closed for the outside world, others make a living of taking in a limited number of tourists on "time travel".

Four big powers try to maintain a balance.

USA: The old power with both tradition and innovation, and no doubt the cultural leader, but is in the vulnerable transformation process from a mainly anglo-saxon to a latino nation.

Europe: An economically very strong region, and technological leader in many areas, but still not with much political drive, although the terrorist war created cohesion to a degree unheard of a few decades earlier. Europe have the largest number of Muslims living outside the "closed zones", but most live in the reservation like Bosnia, and generally try to keep a low profile.

China: In a serious economical crisis due to the collapse of traditional industry and deepened by the political structure still being a mix of old party bureaucracy and moneypower. 180 million unemployed industrial workers are a huge liability, but new generations of independently minded and well educated young chinese make hope for the future. BTW the Chinese nuked Mecca in 2012 after a nuke was detonated in Shanghai harbour. This pretty much made any peaceful solutions impossible and the Muslim world after that simply was fenced in.

India: Coped with the industrial crisis much better than China, being less dependent on export of traditional industrial products and with a much more capable political system. The Indians are not well reputed however after the often very brutal ways in which they handled their 150 million Muslim minority. It is still disputed how many actually reached the closed zones.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

...and still hoping for something better...

[Superdude]

The USA is not going to be a mainly Latino nation for a very, very, very long time.

[MerryPrankster]

http://www.carnifexpress.com/releases/sciencefiction.html

I'm tinkering with a story I'd like to submit for this anthology and I had the following idea...

In 2140, a new war in central Africa leads to massive refugee movements in all directions. The breakdown in order and lack of medicines leads to more massive AIDS die-offs, but there's enough refugee pressure to force huge numbers of North Africans across the Mediterranean into Europe. The series of wars between the established European states and the Arab-Berber confederacies brings in the United States (NATO).

In the meantime, the Chinese decide that it's time to deal with the US allies in the Pacific and forge a new balance of power. Taiwan and Japan are attacked and occupied, with Taiwan being formally annexed. Ultimately there's a massive nuclear exchange between the US and China, which sends the fragile global economy into the toilet...

In my story, everything calms down by 2147. According to the guidelines, South Africa survives as a state and there's some sort of socialist confederacy in the Caribbean, but many of the other cities are in the "former" this or "former" that.

What do y'all think might happen in such a world? I have my own ideas as to what societies would exist in the aftermath of the collapse (incl. a series of Islamic regimes in Spain, Italy, and most of France), but this is not a matter to which I have given a great deal of thought outside of a couple of areas.

[Faeelin]

[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

When global warming turns out to be a natural climate fluctuation environmentalists either make up some new crisis to make people panic about, or actually try to turn public attention to real environmental issues.

IIRC, the medievla warming period was only focused on Europe, and not a worldwide increase in temperatures.

[Midgard]

OK, here are some predictions that have a decent chance of happening IMO. I'll break it down to several different time periods, which IMO will share common themes going forward.

1) The War On Terror (present - 2015)

This period is going to be characterized by the increased polarization of the world into the "haves" and "have nots" as not only the economic, but also as political divisions. The "haves" are the First World countries as we currently think of them; the "have nots" are the Third World states, plus some countries where wealth is concentrated among the very few (think Arab states, rich with oil, but distributing very little of that wealth to the people). It is going to be less of an ideological conflict, and more of the one based on economic conditions.

Countries like China and Russia are going to attempt to use this dissent to their advantage, forging ties and economic connections with the "have not" countries, the former being more successful because the latter is still thought of as the imperial giant of USSR. Their efforts are mostly not given much attention to by the rest of the world - one can say that they are hiding in plain sight. In a meanwhile, Chinese economic interests are going to be more and more so intertwined with the US ones, to where much of US economy is indirectly controlled from Beijing by 2015 or so through acquisitions of American companies, making American businesses heavily dependent on Chinese production and assembly capabilities, and heavily investing in US government debt, among other things.

The old powers of USA, UK, EU, and affiliated countries are going to attempt the "business as usual" approach, interrupted occasionally by the flashes of terrorist attacks that would eventually make the public opinion polarize into the radical faction that believes in total war on Islamic societies, and the isolationistic faction that would somewhat naively believe that completely withdrawing from world affairs is the best course of action.

During this time, at least several more terror attacks are going to happen, likely with WMDs being involved in at least one. In case of the US, it is going to make already conservative society even more so conservative, and distrustful of various religious and ethnic minorities. With a convenient scapegoat of American Muslims or Americans (and immigrants) of Middle Eastern descent, it would not be too implausible to consider a realistic possibility of a Hitler-like figure rising in the US, or any of the major Old World powers, using major terrorist attacks as an excuse to wage genocidal war. This is not what I would consider the most likely possibility, but there is a decent chance that something like this might happen.

By the end of the period, we are going to see a somewhat stable-looking (on the surface) USA and UK, a more fractured (albeit still functioning) EU that is increasingly torn apart by countries' disagreements on how to deal with the problems plaguing the continent, stronger (albeit not visibly so) China, somewhat stable Russia, and Middle East that is past the boiling point.

2) Decline And Fall Of The Western Empires (2015-2060)

Several things are going to happen around this time. One, the population disparity between the Western civilizations (the "first world" as we know it, which in this scenario also would include Japan in addition to the US and Europe) and the Third World is going to become greater due to overpopulation in less developed countries, and ever-present problem of falling birth rates and aging populations in the First World. The US, ironically, is going to suffer the least since the natural change in dynamics of population growth is somewhat offset by immigration from Central and South America, who not only provide an immediate population boost, but who currently also show higher natural growth rates than the Americans of either European or African descent. This creates additional problem for the United States, since much of the new arrivals are from rural areas, or do not initially possess hi-tech skill set required for more qualified jobs, there is going to be an increased gap of qualified, highly educated workforce that would not be filled until the next generation, which would be raised in a high-tech society and who would be able to adapt to it easier and faster.

Two, while the Third World is not quite capable of expansionism mainly due to its military inability to compete with the First World nations, the First World militaries are going to begin their decline as a result of population problem. In the United States, this would mean increasing use of recent immigrants and less qualified recruits not only because native-born potential soldiers resent the idea of being sent to "Hellhole-istan", but also because there are less native born potential soldiers available in first place. It is likely to manifest itself in a similar manner elsewhere in the First World.

Soon, series of small-scale wars of expansion are going to shake the globe in the Third World, where the major powers of today are not going to interfere due to the locales being devoid of major resources, and due to their militaries already being overstretched. The peacemakers are not going to be British, American, or from the EU; it is more likely that China and Russia are going to attempt to be the mediators, increasing their global influence while that of the traditional modern powers is waning.

As the need to find different energy sources becomes more and more apparent, by 2030 or so the world dependence on oil is significantly lessened, resulting in Middle East becoming a relative backwater. Between 2005 and 2030, however, thousands of people attempt to leave the Middle East to settle in Europe or America; due to several terrorist attacks in a meanwhile, they are frequently denied entry into the countries, and are generally viewed with much suspicion. This only increases bitterness in the region, and results in series of violent revolutions; now that oil is no longer the main concern, the West simply ignores the Islamofashist regimes that arise. The new Middle Eastern regimes are essentially a series of brutal dictatorships that use religion as the symbolism to unite their people against the common enemies.

When another terror attack strikes, the Western response is harsh and brutal, resulting in the use of nuclear weapons, and widespread invasions, where the Western armies do not have a very good showing. This is the last gasp of the Western civilization as it attempts to reassert its military and political dominance. By 2045 or so the Western armies are back home with some salvageable story about how the "regions are pacified", or "terrorists had been caught" or whatnot. At this stage, Chinese control of American economy becomes apparent, and results in an almost overnight jump of China to a true superpower stage, having humbled and subdued their primary opposition.

The new Cold War does not start simply due to the fact that the US is heavily dependent on China for production of its raw materials, source of loans to the government, and a market for much of its consumer goods; cutting off ties with China at this stage is an economic suicide. Another power, however, has more immediate concerns with the Chinese, and that would be India. Along with the waning stars of Russia and EU, it creates a new Eurasian power block, similar to present-day EU, and with somewhat more liberal overall stance than the other parts of the world. It is the power that engages in economic and political standoff against China, whose economic interests now control not only the United States, but also much of Africa.

In South America, Brazil is gaining prominence as yet another economic powerhouse, having obtained nuclear weapons some time around 2020. It warily stands on the sidelines, politically more sympathetic to the Eurasian Bloc, but attempting to stay neutral. At this stage, Brazil, India, and China are the only countries with any sort of a worthwhile space program, with the latter in possession of a moon base, and the former two regularly launching satellites and various robotic missions. Since 2005, space around Earth has become increasingly militarized, with all powers possessing military hardware in orbit.

By 2060 or so, all of the world's major powers are the countries thought of as "Third World" only fifty years prior, with the possible exception of China. The United States is a Chinese economic puppet state, whereas the old EU nations are able to maintain some degree of relevance only by allying themselves with the rising power that they are closest to politically and with respect to value system. Africa and Central America are a patchwork of small puppet states that are often used to fight proxy wars to gain advantage on one another by the superpowers. Middle East is considered widely to be the absolute backwater of the world, and Islam is not held in very high regard since there is no leverage the Muslim nations have on the world without major oil supplies needed. In fact, North Africa and Middle East are generally isolated technologically, culturally, and economically, and the Muslim communities in the United States and EU nations are frequently discriminated against - although many still find it better there than in violent theocracies ruling in their homelands.

Let's hope things are not going to turn this way.

[MerryPrankster]

Midgard,

That's a very interesting scenario.

[Civilizer]

Most of u have left out south america, so ill try to predict it a bit. Well, this might be just mindless patriotism, but i believe that both Chile and Argentina will become, while not obviously one of the most major powers, still quite relevant, sort of like canada or australia today. We are continously getting better standards of living, better militaries.
Regionally, i believe there will be a war between Chile vs Peru-Bolivian revanchists sometime within the next 20 years. Our larger industry and military technology will likely defeat their numerical superiority, and we will end up annexing the bolivian gas wells and southern peru, as well as granting east bolivia independence as a worthwhile ally.
The rivalry between Brazil and Argentina might lead to a huge war between them eventually, in about 30 years, and Brazil will begin to win. In order to maintain a balance of power, Chile would likely ally with Argentina, and after a stalemated war, there will be two sizable powers in the continent- a sort of China-like Brazil, and a relatively rich Chile-Argentina, with its economy centered on the Chilean rich central areas, because of argentine war devastation. The other states will break down due to guerrilla warfare and rampant poverty and populism.

[Civilizer]

Also, while our population is starting to age and slow down its growth a bit, it won't do so to the extent of the Western Powers

[AH Patriot]

I think sometime between 2005 and 2300 there will be a second American Civil War. Or Second American Revolution, but really the name depends on who wins.

[Midgard]

I think sometime between 2005 and 2300 there will be a second American Civil War. Or Second American Revolution, but really the name depends on who wins.


IMO it is not unlikely, and there are also several scenarios of how that could come to be. Feel free to comment on each one...

1) "Family Values"

This one could happen within 20 years, and would be a result of increased polarization of politics in the US between conservatives and liberals. I would not use "Democrats" or "Republicans" as factions mainly because the current division is not about the political party as much as it is about being economically, politically, and religiously conservative. It would take a political extremist in control (think someone much more extreme than either of the Bushes on the conservative side, or someone with very definite socialist leanings on the liberal side), resulting in ideological opponents simply refusing to go along - especially if either the election was very close, or was suspected of being at least partially fraudulent (both of which allegations were made in last two elections).

The way to avoid this one - less political extremism could help down the line; also several undisputed (not very close or tainted by allegations of fraud) elections would help.

2) Immigration

This one could happen between 50 and 100 years from now, or even at a later date. This presumes that the concept of "melting pot" does not work, and that incoming immigrants are not integrating into the American society, but instead are increasingly more separate, whether it is due to prejudices of the American mainstream that refuses to let them in, cultural differences that keep not only the first, but also the second, third, and subsequent generations secluded, or the purely economic motivation of selling items and services to immigrant communities by adopting advertisements and services to them instead of attempting to get said communities to adopt values, ideas, and motivations prevalent in the mainstream culture.

In other words - for someone coming to the US from, say, a Spanish speaking country there would be no need to learn English or to enter the English-speaking society, as goods, services, entertainment, employment, and just about anything else are obtainable in Spanish, without needing to learn English. Keep in mind, I am not singling out Spanish-speaking communities, but they would be a good example for a purely hypothetical scenario which presumes no successful large-scale "melting pot".

50-100 years down the line, non-English speaking minorities who feel alienated or not represented in the mainstream US society are actually a majority of population in many areas, and are numerous enough to potentially want self-determination, as in independence. Presuming that there is an infrastructure largely independent of the mainstream one, there is a possibility of secessionist movement - considering the dynamics of population growth, the demographics of the United States are in the process of changing, and within a century the US population is likely to look very differently from what it looks like now.

The way to avoid this one - good old "melting pot" theory that would work towards assimilating any incomers.


3) In The Name Of Wal-Mart

20-200 years from now, if the ideas to privatize Social Security are developed further (as in privatization of most government services and functions) we could develop essentially a corporate state. Needless to say, when competition between various employers is pretty nil, and one cannot simply walk away, people are not going to be very happy. Revolution is more likely than a plain civil war here...

4) Intervention

Involves covert foreign intervention into US politics or economy. In the earlier scenario I mentioned the possibility of China taking control of US economy; items of this nature could provoke another civil war that would involve some sort of extreme neo-Communist ideology (with the logic that "if the corporations/capitalism got us here, it must be destroyed") clashing against the government dependent on the old economic order.

5) Read My Lips...

Imagine Watergate times a hundred... any kind of a major incident would do, as long as it breaks people's faith in government, and makes central government look insidious, corrupt, and tyrannical. There are bound to be enough state governments that would consider rebelling against the central once, and considering that the military bases and weaponry are spread across the country, they might even have resources to do that.

[MerryPrankster]

Another idea I'm tinkering with is a space opera, and I've been writing a future history TL designed to lead up until 2345 (the year my story begins).

I have a Second American Revolution that's basically a libertarian reaction to the growth of the State in the US (overmuch gov't meddling the economy, decline of civil liberties, foreign adventurism, etc). The revolt begins when Social Security defaults and the gov't engages in all sorts of desperate measures to gain solvency (deliberately inflating the currency, confiscating the assets of annoying political groups, etc).

What do y'all think of my earlier scenario (the one I'm working on for the short story)?

[Cloudy Vortex]

I like your ideas, Midgar. Reminds me of a USCWII scenario I've been musing over (Nine Nations become a reality). One problem, though. China's pop control policies are going to cause a baby boomer-like crisis even worse than the US'. Plus, whatever optimist is left in me refuses to think that China can become a hyperpower (I already regard it as a superpower) without democratizing. The USSR tried it and ran out of steam after half a century. Plus, the disconnect between the wealth coastal regions and the inland is stark. This will not be a major problem, but only if it is the only one. If China democratizes, it can dominate the world and that might not be a bad thing. I don't think they'll go on too many foreign adventures, though. The idea of a nation acting as a policeman is a silly notion devised by the American left that was picked up by the American right during the Cold War. I see no reason for China to follow that path. It will act in its interest and to hell with with anyone who thinks it should act differently. This will be a rude awakening for the West and an even ruder one for the Third World (no more handouts, strings or otherwise). It's all business with the Middle Kingdom. However, I'd like to hear your ideas on Japan and Indonesia. These Asian states are just as important as China and India. And Indonesia is neither typical as a Third World country nor as an Islamic one, but it has problems like you wouldn't believe and a population rivaling the US'.

[Cloudy Vortex]

Libertarian US? We tried it and didn't like it, but there's nothing wrong with a "Mandate of Heaven" type cycle. :D It'll give depth and a sense of continuity to the American civilization.

[Leej]

FTL is a no way in the next 300 years without a MASSIVE change in our knowledge of the universe.

I'd say...

Nation states will matter less and less, the decline will continue as it is now. Corporations power will also continue to rise and they could become scarily all encompassing, their growth shows no sign of stopping right now.

I don't see any huge WW3. The Arabs are not up to it and not as dedicated to it as extremists among them are. EU and the US don't see eye to eye often but its just petty squabbling, we remain best friends. China is slackening its stance on Taiwan of late and becoming a more westernised nation. India...Well its friends with the west and its head butting with Pakistan is calming down.

Expansion wise- Middle of this century we should have some sort of decent Luna and Mars bases. Middle of the next century perhaps some actual colonization of Mars starting and maybe terraforming beginning (depends on technology exactly how far this gets, I doubt it'll be done in 300 years though), by 2300 we should have been everywhere worth going in the solar system. We MAY have fusion powered space ships which in theory can get up to 40% of light speed so going to the stars may not be that long after 2300.

Technology is the hardest to say unfortunatly everything else depends on it. I will go with true AI coming along though no evil 'lets kill all humans!', being a ai its existance is on a utterly different plane to that of humans, they will have little interest in conquering the world. Hopefully they could even have some sort of uber hippy 'I love all life!' complex built into them.
Fusion...Maybe this century, first half hopefully.
Life span...Beginning of this century we should be able to get Mars trilogy style treatments to live into our hundreds.
Cars and fossil fuels- first half of this century we should move over to fuel cells before it gets to the stage of Mad Max.

Global warming- Very hard to say. It all depends on what the Yanks do today. I don't see Waterworld, that is just a dumb impossiblity. Global warming could cause some nasty damage in places, seriously muck up the world but not enough to render it uncomfortable full stop. North Atlantic drift could stop though which would be...bad. Though by the time that happens we should be prepared and the only damage would be to the ecosystem, not much harm to human civilization.

[Leej]

I must say I don't agree with this hyserical population decline=world collapse stuff.
1: Population rise may be slowing in the west but its still a long way from becoming dangerously slow
2: Population is still rising way too much in the developing world, with easier global travel this will mean more immigrants.
3: Technological advances will mean less people are needed to do jobs.

Economic growth may slow though it will not decline a world ending amount.

[eschaton]

Midgard.

Russia is falling in population faster than a lot of Europe. Its days are done. The only European countries expected not to decline by 2050 in population are the UK, Ireland, Norway and France. Outside of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Cuba, Trinidad & Tobogo, and a bunch of countries in Southern Africa will have a decline in population.

[Leej]

Though along with Germany the UK and France ARE Europe :p
Are you sure about those nations anyway? I'm certain Spain is not expected to decline, its getting a lot of immigrants from Africa.

Russia stills holds potential, its days have yet to come never mind being numbered. With natural resources dwindling elsewhere and large amounts of those in Russia (I'm just counting the economical stuff here- never mind all that hard to get stuff in Siberia) it shows potential. It can't remain in its current state for long, something has to happen there and a new nation can rise in its place.

[Ian the Admin]

Since the future isn't history (alternate or otherwise)... moved to chat.

[luakel]

3) In The Name Of Wal-Mart

20-200 years from now, if the ideas to privatize Social Security are developed further (as in privatization of most government services and functions) we could develop essentially a corporate state. Needless to say, when competition between various employers is pretty nil, and one cannot simply walk away, people are not going to be very happy. Revolution is more likely than a plain civil war here...

Now we know what it's plan is...
http://www.thinkandask.com/images/walmart.gif

[Midgard]

Midgard.

Russia is falling in population faster than a lot of Europe. Its days are done. The only European countries expected not to decline by 2050 in population are the UK, Ireland, Norway and France. Outside of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Cuba, Trinidad & Tobogo, and a bunch of countries in Southern Africa will have a decline in population.

It is true that Russia is having much larger challenge with respect to its population decline, however, at this stage it is not yet irreversible, and it could still go through a temporary solution of annexing ex-Soviet states (I am thinking Ukraine and Belarus being the most likely - the former would eventually get over the nationalism when things are not getting any better, which AFAIK is happening now, and the latter is already on the verge of being a Russian province) while it attempts to increase birth rates. If Russia manages to stabilize its population problem, which AFAIK it is attempting to do right now as one of the national priorities, it could emerge as a major contender later on down the line... currently its population decline is under 1 percent per year, which still leaves it with some hope. IMO the more totalitarian structure of its government gives it a better chance to deal with reverse of population decline than a less authoritatian society - as much of a paradox as it is.