2008 with John Kerry

[JoeMulk]

Kerry was probably preparing for a second run in 2008 and only dropped out after the "botched joke" incident. If he had been in what would the result have been?

[hcallega]

He would have probably hurt Clinton if anything. I don't see him pulling away Obama voters. It's possible he gets blamed by Clinton supporters, so his mainstream legacy is hurt even more.

[TNF]

Kerry was probably preparing for a second run in 2008 and only dropped out after the "botched joke" incident. If he had been in what would the result have been?

In an election cycle that includes superstars like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama?

A fourth place finish. Behind Obama, behind Clinton, behind Edwards, but ahead of Richardson. Probably bows out early on and endorses Obama. The problem with Kerry is that he doesn't have much of a real constituency within the Democratic Party, while all of the other candidates of the 2008 cycle do (Clinton has the WWC/DLC types, Obama has the liberals and black voters, and Edwards has the more progressive and WWC types, along with labor). Who does Kerry get?

[RogueBeaver]

Clinton's appeal is to WWC, blacks and Hispanics, i.e. the NDC. John Kerry is not particularly appealing to any of those groups.

[RogueBeaver]

In an election cycle that includes superstars like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama?

A fourth place finish. Behind Obama, behind Clinton, behind Edwards, but ahead of Richardson. Probably bows out early on and endorses Obama. The problem with Kerry is that he doesn't have much of a real constituency within the Democratic Party, while all of the other candidates of the 2008 cycle do (Clinton has the WWC/DLC types, Obama has the liberals and black voters, and Edwards has the more progressive and WWC types, along with labor). Who does Kerry get?

He splits liberals with Obama. Dimes to donuts you have two politically toxic spouses: Bill Clinton and THK. Well, unless Bill is muzzled.

[TNF]

He splits liberals with Obama. Dimes to donuts you have two politically toxic spouses: Bill Clinton and THK. Well, unless Bill is muzzled.

You think that the DailyKos crowd and likewise liberals are going to pass up the youthful, charismatic Obama for the stale, non-exciting Kerry?

[RogueBeaver]

Some liberals will, ones who want a more experienced candidate. Older liberals, not the under-30s who will of course flock to Obama.

[JoeMulk]

He would just be like Adlai Stevenson 2.0

[DSS]

He would just be like Adlai Stevenson 2.0

I wouldn't compare him to Adlai Stevenson for a few reasons:

1) Stevenson ran against Eisenhower twice. Kerry, if he was somehow nominated in 2008, would not be running against Bush a second time.
2) Stevenson lost by a landslide during his first presidential bid in 1952; Kerry only lost a narrow election that came down to a few thousand votes in Ohio in 2004.
3) If Kerry were somehow nominated in 2008, he would have defeated any Republican nominated. I'm convinced that, regardless of who the GOP ran in '08, they just couldn't win without ASB intervention.

Don't get me wrong; I see what you mean, but it's because of these three reasons that he just wouldn't be like Adlai Stevenson. But you could very easily get a Stevenson 2.0 if you had Al Gore run again in 2004; that would be the perfect example of Stevenson 2.0 if you set aside the landslide part.

[JoeMulk]

I wouldn't compare him to Adlai Stevenson for a few reasons:

1) Stevenson ran against Eisenhower twice. Kerry, if he was somehow nominated in 2008, would not be running against Bush a second time.
2) Stevenson lost by a landslide during his first presidential bid in 1952; Kerry only lost a narrow election that came down to a few thousand votes in Ohio in 2004.
3) If Kerry were somehow nominated in 2008, he would have defeated any Republican nominated. I'm convinced that, regardless of who the GOP ran in '08, they just couldn't win without ASB intervention.

Don't get me wrong; I see what you mean, but it's because of these three reasons that he just wouldn't be like Adlai Stevenson. But you could very easily get a Stevenson 2.0 if you had Al Gore run again in 2004; that would be the perfect example of Stevenson 2.0 if you set aside the landslide part.

good points actually, Yeah it was really more in terms of personality then actual electoral circumstances that my comparison was based on. I think that Gore could have beaten bush in 2004. The real Stevenson 2.0 scenario would have been in a President Colin Powell scenario where Gore runs and loses twice.

[yourworstnightmare]

Kerry lost in 2004 because he was boring. No way he'd have a chance in '08.

[DSS]

good points actually, Yeah it was really more in terms of personality then actual electoral circumstances that my comparison was based on. I think that Gore could have beaten bush in 2004. The real Stevenson 2.0 scenario would have been in a President Colin Powell scenario where Gore runs and loses twice.

Ah, I see. In which case, that does make sense.

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

2008 with John Kerry would be an interesting. Obama's primary vote may split between him and John. If it is the case, Obama will not win the nomination and Clinton will get it and won the presidency.

[TNF]

Kerry lost in 2004 because he was boring. No way he'd have a chance in '08.

I disagree. Despite his lack of charisma, Kerry only really lost in 2004 because the public chose to stick with Bush because he was a wartime POTUS. The fact that Kerry did so well despite a wartime POTUS being in office should raise a lot of red flags, since the public usually doesn't change horses in midstream on a war issue.

[Wildcard F. Kennedy]

3) If Kerry were somehow nominated in 2008, he would have defeated any Republican nominated. I'm convinced that, regardless of who the GOP ran in '08, they just couldn't win without ASB intervention.



What about Powell? Granted, I agree with your statement for anyone other than Powell.

[TNF]

What about Powell? Granted, I agree with your statement for anyone other than Powell.

Powell is too old and too moderate for the Republican Party of 2008.

[Wildcard F. Kennedy]

Powell is too old and too moderate for the Republican Party of 2008.

Too old? This is the party that ran John McCain we're talking about.

[Grimm Reaper]

Eisenhower in 1952 was far more respected and distinguished in his past record of achievement than Bush ever was which is why Kerry losing to Bush in 2004 by any margin was seen as more damning than Stevenson losing to Eisenhower in a landslide.

[TNF]

Too old? This is the party that ran John McCain we're talking about.

Point taken, but where is Powell's base of support? Conservatives don't like him for breaking with Bush on Iraq and moderates don't exist within the Republican primary electorate either.

[RogueBeaver]

Powell has never been interested in political office and is far too liberal for today's GOP.

[Anaxagoras]

He splits liberals with Obama.

I doubt it. Kerry in 2008 would have been a flame-out, probably dropping out after humiliating showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Liberals weren't particularly enthused by him in 2004, and they wouldn't have been any more interested in supporting him four years later, especially since he was largely blamed for his own defeat.

[Wendell]

This is actually a very interesting idea with the potential for massive butterflies. In the long run though, it likely hurts Obama even though it still denies Clinton the nomination.

[RogueBeaver]

Why does it deny Clinton the nomination? She needs a better team (especially one where everyone does not hate each other's guts- see PSD and Penn) and honing her message to the more populist style that she adopted too late in April and May.

[Wendell]

Why does it deny Clinton the nomination? She needs a better team (especially one where everyone does not hate each other's guts- see PSD and Penn) and honing her message to the more populist style that she adopted too late in April and May.

It hurts Clinton beacuse Kerry cuts more into her and Edwards' base of support than he does into Obama's.

[RogueBeaver]

Kerry is stealing WWC, Hispanic, black voters from Clinton? I don't think so. More likely he's stealing older liberals and suburbanites from Obama. Keep in mind that if Obama doesn't win Iowa the black vote will still split or have a slight edge to Clinton, which means she wins quite a few Southern primaries. Blacks didn't start flocking to him en masse until he won Iowa and thus proved his credibility. At one time in 2007 IIRC she led him 2-1 among black voters.

[Wendell]

Kerry is stealing WWC, Hispanic, black voters from Clinton? I don't think so. More likely he's stealing older liberals and suburbanites from Obama. Keep in mind that if Obama doesn't win Iowa the black vote will still split or have a slight edge to Clinton, which means she wins quite a few Southern primaries. Blacks didn't start flocking to him en masse until he won Iowa and thus proved his credibility. At one time in 2007 IIRC she led him 2-1 among black voters.

Clinton is retaining WWC, but Hispanics are one bloc about which I'm unsure. However, I fail to see how Dean's 2004 support base rallies to Kerry in 2008 when Obama exists and seems potentially viable. 2008 was a hearts over heads contest, and that does not change with a failed presidential nominee in the race who was unpalatable to much of his own base four years earlier.