future history: the big one hits

[mattep74]

Here is a future history scenario

What happens when the big one hits California. Will it be like in the stallone/wesly snipe movie that San Fransisco(or was it San Diego) and LA move to the same level

Will it be like in 10.0 that California becomes an island?

Will it be like in Superman 1, that California goes into the ocean and Arizona gets a coastline?

what happens to the entertaimentindustry and computerindustry?


Japan scenario
WHat happens if a big quake hits Tokyo? Does to world go into recession due to all loans Japan have that they want back?

Can Japan actually sink like it does in the book Japan sinks?

[Raymann]

I could make some good jokes about the liberals in San Francisco right now but Ian would ban me for good.

Anyway, i'm not a geologist but I can't think of a quake in modern history that changed the geography of an area as much as you're proposing. LA is shook up pretty bad, a few thousand dead maybe. Its a federal disaster area for a year or so and is port responsibilities are moved to another city.

Tokyo is another story. People are crammed in their like sardines and Japan and fire doesn't go well together. Japan needs Tokyo so they'll see widespread economic harm. I doubt they'll need outside help though, they are more prepared for that then we are.

[Leej]

There was a documentary on BBC2 a few weeks ago talking about the high probability the big one will hit again (it did many thousands of years ago- the natives remember it in oral history) off the coast causing a tsunami (and many smaller after shock waves) to make the asian one seem trivial. At its worst it could hit right up into Canada and down to baja California.
This was more likely to happen up north though and not have such massive effects- merely wiping out Vancouver and Seattle and others around the area.
For a traditional big quake though-I doubt California will be destroyed. Just a lot of stuff chucked around and a major blow to the US.

Tokyo hit by a huge earthquake- I think it could pull through pretty well. The Japanese have survived nuking and they are planning for this. Some of their more high tech buildings may be left standing.

[Nik]

West Coast was lucky with that one in daylight, when superbowl had glued most of population to TV ready for news.

Think of rush-hour, night-fall, el Nino rain leaving all those slopes saturated unto mud. Then the earth moves, lots fall, more slides, liquefaction swallows anything on 'made-land' and the first tsunami rolls ashore...

Yet, they could be lucky: if the San Andreas breaks near middle and goes both ways, shaking & damage will be much less than if it starts one end and slowly unzips for *hundreds* of miles like the Indonesian Event.

Hopefully, they'll avoid The Big One-Two, with movement on both the San Andreas and the Pacific Subduction zone North of the currently twitchy triple-junction...

[Mike Stearns]

Actually, the San Andreas fault isn't the biggest earthquake threat in the United States. That honor goes to the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the mid-west, which has a history of unleashing powerful, spectacular seismic triple plays such as the one 1812 where three earthquakes measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale struck in a span of three weeks.

[Nik]

Hi, Mike, IIRC, the New Madrid region is especially vulnerable because they did not have the earthquake building codes...

Hmm: As the Mississippi Aulacogen forks there, could New Madrid be due to 'far field' effects of post-glacial rebound ??

Any idea when the on-going Canadian uplift is due to reverse the Chicago River and drain the Great Lakes South to the Gulf again ??

[Mike Stearns]

Hi, Mike, IIRC, the New Madrid region is especially vulnerable because they did not have the earthquake building codes.

There's that and the fact that the bedrock that rest of the continent is setting is not fractured to nearly the same degree as on the West Coast, therefore the shockwaves of powerful a earthquake travel much, much farther then in an area with lots of seismic activity. IIRC the New Madrid quakes of 1811 and 1812 actually set church bells ringing in Montreal and New York.

[Mark]

Hmm: As the Mississippi Aulacogen forks there, could New Madrid be due to 'far field' effects of post-glacial rebound ??

New Madrid is a bit far south to have any effects from glacial rebound. From what I remember of my structural geology class, mid-continent earthquakes are likely due to large scale stresses associated with continental drift. The Mississippi aulocogen provides a weak point that focuses the stress.

Any idea when the on-going Canadian uplift is due to reverse the Chicago River and drain the Great Lakes South to the Gulf again ??

The locks on the Chicago River prevent (i.e., slow) that from happening now. It was more a case of eroding the divide than raising the lakes. We "eroded" the divide with the canel.

[Wendell]

Why not just put the POD in history, and use the Tunguska asteroid?

[wkwillis]

The US imports lots of money as the insurance and reinsurance companies in Europe pay for repairs. The building codes get tightened again. California has an even larger budget deficit.
A tsunami won't do that much damage because the tsunami vulnerable areas are in northern California and there aren't any important coastal cities in northern California. San Francisco has some beachfront, and Santa Cruz, and Eureka, and that's about it.
Now a slump of the San Pablo mudflats into the Carquinez straits might back up the San Joaquin maybe...