Thatcher’s Last Stand.

[cumbria]

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/images/2007/05/18/thatcher1.jpg

Thatcher’s last stand.

Part 1

November 1990.

There were differences within the Cabinet over Thatcher's perceived intransigence in her approach to the European Economic Community — in particular many leading Conservatives wanted Britain to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a move which Thatcher did not favour.

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In 1989 the then Foreign Secretary Sir Geoffrey Howe and Chancellor Nigel Lawson forced Thatcher to agree to the "Madrid Conditions", namely that Britain would eventually join the ERM "when the time was right". In July 1989 she retaliated by removing Howe from the Foreign Office, moving him to Deputy Prime Minister. Lawson - who had clashed with Thatcher over "shadowing the Deutschemark" early in 1988 - then resigned as Chancellor in October 1989, unable to accept Thatcher taking independent advice from the economist Alan Walters.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1700000/images/_1701003_150howe93.jpg

The beneficiary of these moves was the hitherto-unknown John Major, who briefly succeeded Howe as Foreign Secretary before succeeding Lawson as Chancellor. In October 1990 Major and Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd finally obtained agreement from a reluctant Thatcher that Britain should join the ERM.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/theneweurope/images/hurd.jpg

In her Party Conference Speech early in October, Thatcher mocked the Liberal Democrats' new "bird" logo in language lifted from the famous "Monty Python" "Dead Parrot" sketch. This looked more than slightly foolish when the Liberal Democrats captured a seat off the Conservatives at the Eastbourne by-election (caused by the assassination of Ian Gow by the IRA at the end of July) on 18 October.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_yy-QvW2HmG4/Sip_EhBBqGI/AAAAAAAAABo/Dtoj32__JjI/S660/Liberal%2BDemocrats%2B_350_18346714_0_0_7005342_30 0.jpg

The event normally seen as the 'final straw' in the run-up to the contest is the resignation of the Deputy Prime Minister, Sir Geoffrey Howe, on 1 November. This was a response to comments by Thatcher in the House of Commons on 31 October, when she criticised the vision of European integration, including a Single Currency, espoused by the European Commission under Jacques Delors, characterising it as the path to a federal European superstate, and famously declared that her response to such a vision would be "No. No. No" (In June 1990 Chancellor Major had suggested that the proposed Single European Currency should be a "hard ecu", competing for use against existing national currencies; this idea was not in the end adopted).

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Howe did not make his resignation speech immediately because he had temporarily lost his voice. At the Lord Mayor's Banquet on 12 November Thatcher dismissed Howe's resignation by employing a cricketing metaphor:
I am still at the crease, though the bowling has been pretty hostile of late. And in case anyone doubted it, can I assure you there will be no ducking the bouncers, no stonewalling, no playing for time. The bowling's going to get hit all round the ground. That is my style.

http://www.nndb.com/people/280/000024208/john-major-sized.jpg

The next day, Howe made his resignation speech from the backbenches, addressing his dismay at her approach and, famously responding to Thatcher's cricketing metaphor by employing one of his own. Explaining how, in his opinion, her approach made it hard for British ministers to negotiate for Britain's interests in Europe he declared:

It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain.

Howe reinforced the change in general perception of Thatcher from the 'Iron Lady' to a divisive and confrontational figure. Within a week, another critic, former minister Michael Heseltine, had announced that he would challenge her for the leadership of the party.

http://www.speakers.co.uk/csaWeb/media/pix/h250/MICHES_h250.jpg

Under the rules at the time, introduced in 1965 and modified in 1975, there would be a series of ballots, conducted by the 1922 Committee, with that committee's chairman, Cranley Onslow, serving as Returning Officer.

In the first round a candidate needed to win the backing of an absolute majority of MPs. In addition they needed to have a margin over their nearest rival of 15% of the total electorate. This latter rule had been modified from 15% of those voting in the 1975 review and was to prove a crucial distinction in the 1990 contest when Margaret Thatcher narrowly missed this new target.

If neither candidate achieved a sufficiently large majority, then a second ballot would take place the following week. Nominations would be re-opened, and at this stage an absolute majority only would be required. If this did not happen, then the top three candidates would go forward to a third round which would be held using the alternative vote system.

Because of this process, the first round was widely regarded as the real test of confidence in Thatcher. Many speculated that, if she did not achieve outright victory, then she would either be forced to step down and open up the field to others or else suffer further challenges from heavyweight figures in the party. Although Heseltine was known to be a serious contender for the leadership in his own right, many saw him also fulfilling the role of a "stalking horse" to push Thatcher out and pave the way for victory by a third candidate in a later round.
First ballot

The first ballot in the election took place on Tuesday 20 November 1990. Thatcher herself was at the Fontainebleau European summit on the night of the contest and therefore voted by proxy, perhaps anticipating a better result than she actually achieved.

Margaret Thatcher 204 votes 53.8%
Michael Heseltine 152 votes 40.1%
Abstentions 6. 1.6%
Void Spoilt 17. 4.5%
Majority 52. 13.7%
Turnout 379

Although receiving the support of a clear majority of MPs, Thatcher narrowly failed to achieve a lead over Heseltine that comprised at least 15% of the number of all Conservative MPs, abstentions and spoilt ballots included. (Had the contest been run on the pre 1975 rules, she would have won outright at this stage.) The contest therefore had to move into a second ballot. Thatcher gave a short statement in Paris following the announcement of the result, declaring that she intended to contest the second ballot, and on her return to London declared "I fight on; I fight to win."

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Hurd and Major pledged their support, as did Cecil Parkinson, Kenneth Baker and ex-Cabinet minister Nicholas Ridley. Norman Tebbit, another ex-Cabinet minister, was part of her campaign team, along with John Wakeham. Thatcher's campaign manager, Peter Morrison, advised her to consult Cabinet members one by one. Cabinet ministers had decided before consulting Thatcher the line they would each take: though they personally would support her in the second ballot, they thought that she would lose. Peter Lilley, William Waldegrave, John Gummer and Chris Patten stuck to this line. Kenneth Clarke, the Secretary of State for Education, famously became the first of her ministers to advise her that she could not win but that he would support her as Prime Minister for another five or ten years. Malcolm Rifkind said she would not win and was unsure whether he could support her in the second ballot. Peter Brooke said he would support Thatcher whatever she chose to do and that she could win "with all guns blazing". Michael Howard doubted whether she could win but said he would campaign full-heartedly for her.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/site_imagery/kenneth_baker_140x140.jpg

Enoch Powell announces that he will rejoin the party – which he had left in February 1974 over the issue of Europe – if Thatcher wins, and would urge the public to support both her and, in Powell's view, national independence. He writes to one of Thatcher's supporters, Norman Tebbit, telling him Thatcher was entitled to use his name and his support in any way she saw fit.

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Second ballot

The second round of voting would take place on Tuesday 27 November 1990.
Thatcher decides to fight on and at the behest of Norman Tebbit, Neil Hamilton and others phones round a large number of Conservative MP’s to tally support.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/site_imagery/norman_tebbit_140x140.jpg

The result

Margaret Thatcher 224 votes
Michael Heseltine 153 votes
Abstentions 1.
Void Spoilt 2.
Majority 71
Turnout 379

Thatcher was still Conservative party leader but Heseltine and the Tory left still had a great deal of support.

Thatcher’s first thoughts would now turn to increasing her support in the cabinet.

As the month ended opinion polls still had the Conservatives behind Labour by 8%.

Lab – 46%
Con – 38%
Lib – 12%


http://www.andrewcusack.com/scotory3.jpg

[Blackadder mk 2]

I must say only one other person has done this and that's RB but by the look of your title it seems it will diverge heavily from his tale.

So Thatcher has gotten a lifeline but she will need to use everything she has if she wants to finish Thatcherism for Britain and using Powell's image on the far right could help her with them but it could get rid of the others.

[RogueBeaver]

Actually, BG and I might reopen ours in the future. But by all means, continue with this TL, since it will probably take a different path. Subscribed. :cool:

[cumbria]

Actually, BG and I might reopen ours in the future. But by all means, continue with this TL, since it will probably take a different path. Subscribed. :cool:

I didnt realise it had been done before.
Ill read the first one.
Do you have a link?

[Han]

Awesome. :cool: I hope the Conservatives eliminate that 8 point deficit and stay in power. :D The more Thatcher the better. ;)

[cumbria]

http://brainwashed.com/vvm/images/releases/vvm_hi/thatcher_01.jpg

Part 2

December 1990

Channel Tunnel workers from the United Kingdom and France meet 40 meters beneath the English Channel seabed, establishing the first land connection between the United Kingdom and the mainland of Europe for around 8,000 years.

http://www.stedmundsbury.gov.uk/sebc/work/images/Confederation-of-british-industry-logo_1.jpg

The CBI predicts that the recession will last longer than predicted, and that GDP is likely to fall by at least 1% in 1991.

Enoch Powell makes front page headlines across Britain when he announces he is re-joining the Conservative Party.
Margaret Thatcher tells the media she would like to see Powell in the cabinet.
This in turn brings condemnation from Michael Heseltine and Education Secretary Ken Clark.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e201156f73aab3970c-250wi

Powell attends Downing Street for a meeting with Thatcher.
He advised Thatcher to fight the next general election on a nationalist theme as many Eastern European nations previously under Russian rule were gaining their freedom.
Powell said that the government should admit the poll tax was "a disaster" and that what mattered most to the people was the question of who should govern Britain and that only the Conservative Party was advocating that the British should govern themselves.
After the meeting he stated to the press "I find myself today less on the fringe of that party than I have done for 20 years".
Thatcher dismisses Clarke from his position which he had held for less than a month and offers Norman Tebbit the post of Secretary of State of Education and Science.
Tebbit had been offered this role before but had refused it on the grounds he was looking after his wife who was seriously injured in the IRA bombing of the Conservative party conference.

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However he had said he would return to politics if Thatcher really needed him.
He accepts.
Tebbit is also keen to see Enoch Powell in the cabinet.
Thatcher suggests he will get his chance with David Waddington being made a Baron his old seat in the Conservative stronghold of Ribble Valley will be available.
The by-election will be brought forward as soon as possible.
It is to be suggested to the local Conservative Association that Enoch Powell should be the candidate.

http://www.groupcsa.com/csa/photos/large/Malcolm_Rifkind_PC_.jpg

Private objections on Tebbit and in particular Powell returning to frontline politics come from John Major, Malcolm Rifkind and Michael Howard.

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6 December -
- Saddam Hussein announces that all British hostages in Iraq are to be released.
- House price inflation has returned and stands at 0.2% for November, the first year-on-year rise in house prices since February.
8 December - The UK grinds to a halt following heavy snow overnight. Large parts of the country are without power after snowfall brings down power lines, disrupting the electricity supply. Many rural areas are cut off for several days, while the Army is called out to help restore power. There is grim news for the retail industry as a CBI survey reports that retail sales have hit a standstill and High Street employment will fall.
The first British hostages in Iraq released by Saddam Hussein arrive back in the UK.

Thatcher speaks in Parliament of Britain’s problems all stemming from Europe.
This causes outrage among the left wing press and some of her own cabinet.
While 59% of the British public polled for The Independent by Number Market Research agreed with Thatcher's opposition to monetary union, 64% were of the opinion that she needed to retire.
Norman Tebbit suggests Britain should leave the EEC and re-join the European Free Trade Association.
This is an option that is support by much of the press.
Enoch Powell announces he would also support the move but would prefer Britain to be outside both.

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An era ends in the Rhondda, South Wales, when the last coalmine closes after more than 100 years of heavy coalmining in the region. 300 miners have lost their jobs and just seventeen will remain employed in the industry elsewhere.
25 December - Storms on Christmas Day leave more than 100,000 British homes without power.
26 December - The fatwa (order to kill) against Satanic Verses author Salman Rushdie is upheld by AyatollahAli Khamenei, more than one year after it was first issued. Rushdie is still living in hiding.
27 December - The latest MORI poll shows that Conservative support has been boosted by the arrival of Enoch Powell into prominent circles of the Conservative Party and with Norman Tebbit returning to the cabinet, with his party now just four points behind Labour - eight months after Labour had peaked with a 23-point lead.
29 December - Leading economists warn that the recession creeping upon Britain will deepen during 1991 and unemployment is likely to increase to well over 2,000,000 from the current total of over 1,700,000.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Money/Pix/pictures/2008/09/19/ThatcherRexNilsJorgensen460.jpg

[thevaliant]

The problem with both of your timelines so far is a distinct lack of realism. You decide what you want, and then just force it through.

Powell, in the cabinet, in 1990, is laughable. He's 78 years old! Now, never let it be said that age should be a bar, but at this point in his life I do not expect he will be playing much part in government.

As to Thatcher surviving. It's possible, but let's be quite honest. If she did win, she'd plow on to certain defeat at the polls in the summer of 1991 (when you want the election to be) with Kinnock taking over as PM and a Labour government for the next few years.

Why don't we just cut to the chase. I'll pan out the rest of the timeline for you in advance:

1. Another election in 1991. By some miracle, the Conservatives win.
2. Labour fractures at this point, preferably into 16 mini parties, so it can never win again.
3. Best do the same with the Lib Dems too.
4. The Conservatives win the next four elections, leaving the EC. Thatcher remains as leader until 2007, when she stands aside for her chosen successor, Iain Duncan Smith.... or someone else equally hard right wing. Maybe Hague, depends on how you feel about them.
5. The British public accepts all this with good grace and full support of the government.
6. The economy roars off into the sunset. Public spending is massively increased, but luckily, just like Gordon Brown hoped, no deficit is ever run, no debt ever taken and infact by 2009, Britain has such a large surplus the whole world owes it billions of pounds.

Sound about right?

[cumbria]

Problem with both of your timelines so far is a distinct lack of realism. You decide what you want, and then just force it through.

I only do what I see as possible.

Powell, in the cabinet, in 1990, is laughable. He's 78 years old! Now, never let it be said that age should be a bar, but at this point in his life I do not expect he will be playing much part in government.

Powell isnt even in parliament so far let alone the cabinet.
But Thatcher is quite aware of how Powell's popularity can help her.

As to Thatcher surviving. It's possible, but let's be quite honest. If she did win, she'd plow on to certain defeat at the polls in the summer of 1991 (when you want the election to be) with Kinnock taking over as PM and a Labour government for the next few years.

The defeat is far from certain.
Thatcher faced very large polls deficits before the 1983 and 1987 election.



Why don't we just cut to the chase. I'll pan out the rest of the timeline for you in advance:

1. Another election in 1991. By some miracle, the Conservatives win.


You will have to wait and see.

2. Labour fractures at this point, preferably into 16 mini parties, so it can never win again.

Wont happen.


3. Best do the same with the Lib Dems too.

Wont happen.

4. The Conservatives win the next four elections, leaving the EC. Thatcher remains as leader until 2007, when she stands aside for her chosen successor, Iain Duncan Smith.... or someone else equally hard right wing. Maybe Hague, depends on how you feel about them.

Wont happen.


5. The British public accepts all this with good grace and full support of the government.

No.


6. The economy roars off into the sunset. Public spending is massively increased, but luckily, just like Gordon Brown hoped, no deficit is ever run, no debt ever taken and infact by 2009, Britain has such a large surplus the whole world owes it billions of pounds.

Definatly wont happen.


Sound about right?

You assume that I agree with or think right some of the things that Thatcher will do.

[Blackadder mk 2]

This is how I assume the EEC will go if Thatcher can just survive 1992 election.

She holds a referendum on the treaty and the NO campaign wins much to the left wingers anger.

Using that she passes a law that requires any power change from Parliament to Brussels to be decided by referendum.

After that she resigns and Labour wins 1997 because it was just going to happen.

Good job so far :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[Dan]

If the Gulf conflict continues as per OTL, Thatcher and the tories would win the 92 Election on a second burst of "Falklands Spirit", as Major did OTL.
Other than that, I can't see a huge amount of change. Tories out in 97, with Tony Blair in.
Thatcher staying on is unlikely to change much if anything. Labour will continue on a "Tory Sleaze" theme, but if she stays in the commons, even as a back bencher, Mandelson will get one shot, any attempt to rehabilitate him will result in her lambasting (new?) Labour for hypocracy and stating that at least when Conservative ministers resign in disgrace, they have the good manners to remember this and stay there, not wheedle their way back hoping everyone has forgotten their misdeeds.

[Glass Onion]

If the Gulf conflict continues as per OTL, Thatcher and the tories would win the 92 Election on a second burst of "Falklands Spirit", as Major did OTL.
Other than that, I can't see a huge amount of change. Tories out in 97, with Tony Blair in.
Thatcher staying on is unlikely to change much if anything. Labour will continue on a "Tory Sleaze" theme, but if she stays in the commons, even as a back bencher, Mandelson will get one shot, any attempt to rehabilitate him will result in her lambasting (new?) Labour for hypocracy and stating that at least when Conservative ministers resign in disgrace, they have the good manners to remember this and stay there, not wheedle their way back hoping everyone has forgotten their misdeeds.

Isn't it more likely to be John Smith? Assuming that his heart attack can somehow be butterflied by Thatcher's political survival?

[black angel]

If the Gulf conflict continues as per OTL, Thatcher and the tories would win the 92 Election on a second burst of "Falklands Spirit", as Major did OTL.
Other than that, I can't see a huge amount of change. Tories out in 97, with Tony Blair in.

well if Neil Kinnock loose the election you have a leadership election maybe Gordon Brown or Robin Cook raise to fight John Smith for leadership, even if they don't (or if John beats one or the other) Smith will still die in 1994 and we could see Blair V. Brown in that election, personally I'd like to see PM Beckett by the way

[Dan]

Isn't it more likely to be John Smith? Assuming that his heart attack can somehow be butterflied by Thatcher's political survival?

If they could, then yes, and I suspect he would be quite popular as well.

[black angel]

Isn't it more likely to be John Smith? Assuming that his heart attack can somehow be butterflied by Thatcher's political survival?

Smith had a major heart attack in 1988 which left him in the ICU for 20 days and out of Parliament for 3 months, the only reason he didn't die in 88 was he had his heart attack in a doctors office, in 1994 he was doing everything right for his body and he was still dropped I do not think a 1990 POD will save him, he has a bum heart end of story.

[cumbria]

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2008/06/05/thatcher1980.jpg

Part 3

Early – Mid January 1991.

3 January - The UK expels all Iraqi diplomats from the country due to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait five months ago.

5 January - 27 people die as a result of gale force winds across Britain.

7 January - Enoch Powell returns to Parliament at the Ribble Valley by-election defeating Michael Carr of the Liberal Democrats by 5,000 votes.

8 January - A train crash at Cannon Street station in London kills one person and injures over 500.

9 January – A Daily Express poll shows Enoch Powell to be the most popular politician in the country.

10 January - Margaret Thatcher greets Enoch Powell as he arrives at Downing Street for another meeting.

http://comps.fotosearch.com/comp/STK/STK006/eec-flag-_~JHP1283.jpg

This meeting will include would also include Norman Tebbit.

Powell: If you wish to win this election Prime Minister you must fight it on an anti-EEC agenda.
Thatcher: I am increasingly worried about the encroaching power of the EEC as you are Enoch, but what of our trade?
Powell: Our trade will still remain the EEC would not dare negotiate a free trade agreement with us since they sell more to us than we to them.
Tebbit: We could re-join EFTA.
Powell: I would prefer Britain to stand on its own two feet Norman.
Thatcher: We do not wish to scare the horses Enoch so I think we will have to go with the EFTA option.
I myself would favour a trade agreement with the United States, Canada and perhaps Australia.
Tebbit: Another interesting option for us.
Powell: I would be against membership of any trade body that included the United States of America, a nation that has betrayed us and opposed consistently since the war.
Thatcher: Nonsense Enoch the USA is our greatest ally and we are bound to engage in a major conflict against Iraq with them mainly at our behest.
Powell: It is good to see we are again showing our power Prime Minister but if we must go for one option I would favour EFTA as it is an organisation that is already set up and which we were members of before.
Tebbit: Perhaps for the moment Prime Minister this would be the best option.
Thatcher:
Leaving the EEC may well be a vote winner in the next election if the polls we saw on the subject are anything to go by in November.
But such a move may well cost us a few members of the Cabinet and divide the party.
Thatcher: This is what I fear.
What was the poll result?
Tebbit: 59% of the British public polled for The Independent agreed with your opposition to monetary union.
Powell: It is clear the EEC is moving towards a single currency and a single state so it would be most logical for us to leave and re-join EFTA if as you said in 1988 “the EEC should be limited to ensuring free trade and effective competition”.
Thatcher: Can we carry the country on this Norman?
Tebbit: I believe we can Prime Minister but we made need some other populist policies to help us towards such a victory.
Powell: The abandoning of the Community Charge (Poll Tax) would be the most logical move Prime Minister.
Thatcher: No Enoch we are completely committed to keeping that tax.
Powell: As the party of low taxation we then appear to have brought in a tax that means 70% of the population now pay more than they did under the ratings system.
Thatcher: The tax will stay Enoch:
Powell: I have no objection in principles to a flat local level of taxation Prime Minister but just at a lower rate.
Thatcher: and how will we pay for that?
Powell: Perhaps something that you should go over with the cabinet.
Thatcher: We have discussed this numerous times with the cabinet.
Powell: A flat local income tax at a much lower rate could be paid for in numerous ways.
Leaving the EEC, leaving NATO, Ending immigration, reforming local government.
Thatcher: Leaving NATO is not an option but I will the cabinet to look at immigration reform.
I’m not sure it would be wise to meddle with local government again.
Tebbit: It would be a way of reducing the power of left wing local authorities and increasing our control Prime Minister.
Plus we could re-establish the traditional counties.
Powell: This would be a vote winner.
Thatcher: Ill bring this up with the cabinet as soon as possible.

11 January - As the recession deepens, 335 workers at the Peugeot car factory in Coventry are made redundant while Ford is looking for up to 1,000 voluntary redundancies at its British factories. Thousands of jobs in the financial services factor are reportedly at threat, as the total UK unemployment is currently standing at nearly 1,800,000 but is expected to rise to well over 2,000,000 by the end of the year.

http://nclrights.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/palace-westminster.jpg

12 January – British cabinet meeting.

Thatcher: I have decided to fight the next election on a platform of withdrawal from the EEC and to re-join EFTA.
Ken Clarke: I could not in anyway support that Prime Minister.
Thatcher: I do not see what the department of Health has to do with such a decision!
Clarke: This is a decision which would effect the whole country.
I can not support it.
John Major: This would be a grave error Prime Minister the soundness of our economy depends on EEC membership.
Thatcher: Well apart from that being false as we see more to them, than they sell to us we much consider the implications of Britain’s sovereignty.
Cecil Parkinson: I fully agree Prime Minister.
Withdrawal is an excellent idea.
Douglas Hurd: Nonsense this would put Britain back years.
Thatcher: I don’t see our freedom as a nation being a set back do you Douglas?
Hurd: This isn’t 1939 Prime Minister we have real economic issues to deal with here.
Thatcher: I do not see the other members of EFTA having problems with their economies!
Hurd: These economies are very minor players a major player like ourselves needs to be in the first team, namely the EEC.
Thatcher: The EEC is far more than an organisation of free trade.
It is fast becoming the new Soviet Union with its Socialist state control and increasing power over the British state.
Clarke: This is most ridiculous Prime Minister as Douglas said this isn’t 1939.
Thatcher: It is a good job many of you were not in government in 1939 or we in this room would all now be speaking German.
We will be campaigning to leave the EEC at the next election and that will be the end of the matter.
Hurd: If this is to be the case then you shall have my resignation.
Tebbit: Then perhaps the Prime Minister will bring in Ministers who will put this country first.
Thatcher: Put it on my desk in the morning Douglas.
Clarke: This is outrageous Prime Minister.
If Douglas resigns and his resignation is accepted then I too must offer mine.
Thatcher: Very well.

13 January – Thatcher announces to the media that the next election will be fought on the principle of EEC withdrawal should a Conservative victory be achieved.
The Daily Mail, Express and Star all immediately came out in support of EEC withdrawal.
Thatcher accepts the resignation of Ken Clarke and Douglas Hurd.
Both openly state Michael Heseltine should again challenge Thatcher as Conservative party leader.

14 January - Donald Coleman, Labour MP for Neath in South Wales, dies aged 65.
111 Conservative MP’s announce they will oppose Britain’s withdrawal from the EEC.
Thatcher meets Rupert Murdoch to about EEC withdrawal.
Murdoch decides he will put both sides of the argument for EEC withdrawal in his news papers but would not support either side as yet.

16 January - The final phase of the M40 motorway through Oxfordshire is opened, giving the West Midlands conurbation its first direct motorway link with London.

17 January - The Gulf War begins, as the Royal Air Force joins Allied aircraft in bombing raids on Iraq.
Opinion polls show 52% of the British public support EEC withdrawal with 36% against and 12% undecided.

18 January - In spite of the deepening recession and division on Europe in the Conservative party a MORI places them still at just 3 points behind the Labour party.
John Major private remarks on his opposition to EEC withdrawal are made public causing much embarrassment to the government.
Enoch Powell makes a public call for his resignation.
In the House Neil Kinnock attacks what he called a “divided right wing extremist rump that passes today as the Conservative party”.

19 January - It is announced that 1,844,000 people are now unemployed in the United Kingdom, and experts warn that the figure will exceed 2,000,000 before the end of the year.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/02_1/MichaelPortilloPA_228x325.jpg

A major cabinet reshuffle takes place John Major was to be demoted to Foreign Secretary but resigned in protest before taking the position. He was replaced with Norman Lamont, Hurd left the Home Office and Clarke Health.
With many of the left of the party now in open rebellion a host of Right wingers were promoted by Thatcher with full support from Norman Tebbit and Enoch Powell.
Mainly Thatcherites but also a couple of Monday Clubbers as a sop to the Old Right to guarantee their support.
Powell himself was brought into the cabinet as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
Cecil Parkinson was made Foreign Secretary.
Tebbit was made Home Secretary.
Other promotions included Michael Portillo to Transport, Francis Maude to Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Eric Forth to Education, Nicolas Ridley brought back to the cabinet and put in charge of Health, John Redwood to the Environment.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/interviews/images/francis_maude_1.jpg



Nicholas Winterton, Ann Winterton, Neil Hamilton, John Redwood, Edward Leigh, Michael Fallon and Rhodes Boyson were all also promoted but outside the cabinet to more junior roles.

Margaret Thatcher: Prime Minister
Norman Lamont: Chancellor of the Exchequer
Lord Mackay: Lord Chancellor
Lord Waddington: Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords
Francis Maude: Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Cecil Parkinson: Secretary of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Norman Tebbit: Secretary of State for the Home Department
John Gummer: Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Tom King: Secretary of State for Defence
Eric Forth: Secretary of State for Education & Science
Michael Howard: Secretary of State for Employment
John Wakeham: Secretary of State for Energy
John Redwood: Secretary of State for the Environment
Nicolas Ridley: Secretary of State for Health
Kenneth Baker: Conservative Party Chairman
Enoch Powell: Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
Peter Brooke: Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Malcolm Rifkind: Secretary of State for Scotland
Peter Lilley: Secretary of State for Trade and Industry
Michael Portillo: Secretary of State for Transport
David Hunt: Secretary of State for Wales
John MacGregor: Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons
Tony Newton: Secretary of State for Social Security
Patrick Mayhew: Attorney General (Attending Cabinet)
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/images/ericforth.jpg

20 January – Another poll after the cabinet re-shuffle and John Major’s resignation shows a slight dip in Conservative support to 5% points below Labour.

The media conclude the return of Enoch Powell to the cabinet for the first time in over 20 years, the return of Norman Tebbit, plus the anti-EEC stance appear to be holding up Conservative support which would other wise be much lower.

http://www.corbisimages.com/images/67/4C51955F-6B3E-4E20-8394-DB51DEF94946/BE029739.jpg

[cumbria]

Was in a big rush here so didnt have chance to check everything.
May have to alter some things later.
Will add more pictures too.

[Blackadder mk 2]

All seems good although things seem rushed not you but the EEC withdrawal.

Just one thing but can you give us a link to whatever source told us Powell was the most popular politician in the 90's as that was only true in the 70's which made the NF success believable in your other work.

But shouldn't Major and Clarke try to convince the country not to leave the EEC (would love to see the dialogue).

[Blackadder mk 2]

I believe this is the link to RB's work (http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=155679)

[cumbria]

All seems good although things seem rushed not you but the EEC withdrawal.

Rushed in part through Powell and Tebbit returning to the fold and because Thatcher is thinking of a summer election which will likely be her last.
The alternative option would be to go for a win in a summer election then leave the EEC before the Maastricht treaty comes into force.
But that would leave her with a even greater number of pro-EEC MP's and cabinet Ministers.


Just one thing but can you give us a link to whatever source told us Powell was the most popular politician in the 90's as that was only true in the 70's which made the NF success believable in your other work.

Powell was the 4th highest ranking politician in the Greatest Briton poll ever in 2002.
With only Thatcher, Churchill and Bevan higher.
This indicates his popularity.


But shouldn't Major and Clarke try to convince the country not to leave the EEC (would love to see the dialogue).

Thats what will happen next.

[Blackadder mk 2]

To be completely honest I'm split into two about this as one says this is great and I love this, another is angry I won't see Churchill pwn Nassar but still this is as cool and amazing unlike Enochs National Front :cool::cool::cool: which is chilling and amazing.:eek::eek::eek:

[cumbria]

To be completely honest I'm split into two about this as one says this is great and I love this, another is angry I won't see Churchill pwn Nassar but still this is as cool and amazing unlike Enochs National Front :cool::cool::cool: which is chilling and amazing.:eek::eek::eek:

I feel as im rushing this one a bit but I can go back to it later.
Ill do another update for this I think and then go back to Enoch's National Front.

[black angel]

Ill do another update for this I think and then go back to Enoch's National Front.

you better :mad::p

[cumbria]

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Arts/Arts_/Pictures/2008/04/14/MargaretThatcher460.jpg

Part 4

Late January 1991

January 22 - Three SCUDs and one Patriot missile hit Ramat Gan in Israel, injuring 96 people; 3 elderly people die of heart attacks.

January 22 – British ArmySAS patrol, Bravo Two Zero is deployed in Iraq during the Gulf War. All but one of eight members are killed or captured.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/42407000/jpg/_42407422_howe_pa203.jpg

In a press conference Michael Heseltine, John Major, Geoffrey Howe and Douglas Hurd along side several dozen MP backed by many more totalling 111 say they will oppose British withdrawal from the EEC.
The press dub them Britain’s 4th party and the Euro-Rebels.
The Daily Mirror and Guardian in particular suggest this could the Conservatives SDP moment.
With the Conservatives going beyond the pale and making themselves unelectable and a significant number of MP’s possible breaking away.

The Euro-Rebels distance themselves from a possible break away.
But this is cast into doubt when Conservative MP’s Hugh Dykes, Keith Raffan, Emma Nicholson defect to the Liberal Democrats.
They are joined by Conservative MEP’s Paul Howell, Bill Newton Dunn, Peter Price.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41186000/jpg/_41186160_kennedy_ashdown1993bbc.jpg

Paddy Ashdown announces that his party is a growing force having gone from 4% in the polls the year before to 12% in January.

A meeting of the new cabinet was called on how to deal with the Crisis.
Excerpts from that meeting.

http://www2.hull.ac.uk/images/rifkind.jpg

Thatcher: We seem in a Crisis with around a third of our MP’s supporting a united Europe and we are still behind in the polls.
Ill tell you now gentlemen I hope to fight an election in June this year and we must be ready for it and ready to win it.
Tebbit: We have discussed moves to call for constituency associations to de-select pro-EEC MP’s by popular local vote before the next election.
Rifkind: That is not a good idea the Conservative party must remain a broad church.
Tebbit: The Conservative party belongs to its members Malcolm and as such they should decide who represents them in the coming election.
Rifkind: It is our job to lead not to follow the mob.
Powell: The democratic power of the Conservative Association should not be crushed by those who wish to rule by a force of dictatorship.
We have seen were that has led Europe before.
Gummer: I agree with Malcolm here this is going too far.
Thatcher: The matter shall be decided by vote here today.
We can’t go into an election with 108 of our MP’s opposing our main policy.
Let us vote.

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/information/images/johngummer.jpg

The vote is 15-9 in favour of the motion.

Rifkind: Even you Kenneth supporting this?
Baker: It is my duty as Chairman to guarantee party unity and to win this election.
Powell: Perhaps you can’t accept the vote Malcolm?
Rifkind: I shall go with the majority.
Thatcher: We have other matters to discuss.
How are we going to improve our poll position?
John Gummer: Abolish the Poll Tax!
Thatcher: We have been over this many times now; the Community Charge will not be abolished.
John Redwood: I would suggest we reform the Community Charge Prime Minister.
Thatcher: In what way?
Redwood: Well as you know Prime Minister I am and have always have supported a flat rate of local income tax but in its present form it is quite unworkable.
Thatcher: What have you in mind?
Redwood: Well the big collection issue was the 20/100% split. People in employment had to pay 100%, students and the registered unemployed paid 20%. The nature of the shared house market meant that not even the landlord knew exactly who was living there; tenants were replaced, and may have shared a "single" room with their partner. So the local council had no idea who was living where and when.
We need to remove those without income paying the tax for a start.
This includes students and the unemployed.
If we don’t we will just see tax payers money travel in circles creating excess administration and costs.
We also need to cut the tax to a rate where by the majority of people pay less than before.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_vHf7qNR87Z4/RumM-DmHxzI/AAAAAAAAAw4/MzFDg5tjJyk/s400/20050331john_redwood320.jpg

Tony Newton: We could just go back to the old Rates system.
Thatcher: No, no and no again!
I have said before im not for turning on this matter.
Redwood: The removal of more powers from local authorities will also help us break up the Labour parties little Red Empires it has established.
It will remove a lot of Socialist control over education for example.
Thatcher: The idea is very interesting John.
I will support John reform to the tax if we can afford it.
Lamont: How do you suggest we pay for it John?
Redwood: The money saved from EEC withdrawal and further centralisation in council services in the long run should cover the costs plus a raise in Value Added Tax from 15% to 17.5% to pay for a £140 reduction in the tax for the short term.
Thatcher: I do not like tax rises especially going into an election.
We are the party of tax cuts.
Redwood: Forgive me Prime Minister but with the community charge we have become the party of tax rises with most people paying more.
This can be seen as tax rise for a tax cut.
We can restore the 15% VAT rate after the General Election.
Tebbit: I like the idea.
Baker: I think we should go with it Prime Minister.
Thatcher: Ok all in favour?

http://www.pprt.org.uk/images/Tony_Newton.jpg

The vote for Redwoods reform is passed by 19 votes to 5.

http://photos.upi.com/Audio/Year_in_Review/08e8669332e45058d4c1b6d281ddf3e1/Margaret-Thatcher-addresses-the-Conservative-Party-Conference.jpg

[FletcherofSaltoun]

You've just given Labour the next election...:eek:

If a third of the Conservative MPs are de-selected, I would expect many of them to run as independent Conservatives, notably including the likes of Patten, Hesseltine, Major and Hurd, thereby splitting the Conservative vote and letting Labour in by default. In fact, it could be very humiliating for Thatcher. I mean to say, why wouldn't they stand? They've been de-selected on a point of principle and they are likely to be spitting fire.

Given, I pointed out in your Enoch timeline the average poll lead for Labour was 10-16 points, even if it has been reduced to 5 here, this move blows any recovery out of the water.

It is stupid and political suicide. If you disbelieve me, check up on Asquith and Lloyd-George....

[cumbria]

You've just given Labour the next election...:eek:

If a third of the Conservative MPs are de-selected, I would expect many of them to run as independent Conservatives, notably including the likes of Patten, Hesseltine, Major and Hurd, thereby splitting the Conservative vote and letting Labour in by default. In fact, it could be very humiliating for Thatcher. I mean to say, why wouldn't they stand? They've been de-selected on a point of principle and they are likely to be spitting fire.

Given, I pointed out in your Enoch timeline the average poll lead for Labour was 10-16 points, even if it has been reduced to 5 here, this move blows any recovery out of the water.

It is stupid and political suicide. If you disbelieve me, check up on Asquith and Lloyd-George....

It is up to the Local Conservative Associations to vote on de-selection.
Many will vote against.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

It is up to the Local Conservative Associations to vote on de-selection.
Many will vote against.
Which simply emphasises to the public how divided the government are. This will look like an order from on high to de-select candidates the Prime Minister doesn't like.

At the very least this shows a civil war is in progress and this is exactly how it will be portrayed in the media. There is no way a party in that kind of condition can win. Really, if you want a Thatcher win, as highly unlikely as it is in my opinion, I'd take that part out.

I mean to say in addition to this, if 108 MPs have openly said they disagree with the policy, how many take that view in private? If there were a leadership election again, Thatcher would be destroyed over this.

Again, I urge you to remove this part. You do not solve divisions by attempting to remove those you disagree with. I doubt Thatcher would be blind enough to do this.

[cumbria]

Which simply emphasises to the public how divided the government are. This will look like an order from on high to de-select candidates the Prime Minister doesn't like.

At the very least this shows a civil war is in progress and this is exactly how it will be portrayed in the media. There is no way a party in that kind of condition can win. Really, if you want a Thatcher win, as highly unlikely as it is in my opinion, I'd take that part out.

I mean to say in addition to this, if 108 MPs have openly said they disagree with the policy, how many take that view in private? If there were a leadership election again, Thatcher would be destroyed over this.

Again, I urge you to remove this part. You do not solve divisions by attempting to remove those you disagree with. I doubt Thatcher would be blind enough to do this.

Ill include your points in the timeline.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Maybe Cumbria could change it into a referendum on the EEC as it may be slightly more possible.

[Cymraeg]

Only Thatcher could be this bonkers insane.
I forsee a fractured Conservative Party and a baffled Maggie wondering why so many people fail to understand the truth in her point of view. :rolleyes:

[Dan]

I forsee a fractured Conservative Party and a baffled Maggie wondering why so many people fail to understand the truth in her point of view. :rolleyes:

No, that's just stating fact from the OTL. :p
Glibly put but I believe that's how she felt when Major won the Party leadership in the real world.

No, I suspect that whatever candidates the Tories put out, with the glass beads of a reduction on Poll Tax/Council Tax/Local Income tax, andthe promise of a reduction on VAT back to 15% plus the "Falklands Spirit" off the back of the Gulf War, they'll get enough votes to get back in, albeit with a reduced majority, throw a referendum out to leave the EEC and win it. Still be out in 97, but with a clear mandate from the referendum, even the Liberals will not be able to campaign on immediately re-joining the EEC, assuming France/Germany don't veto it.

If Britian leaves the EEC, then regardless of how the other parties fair, the French will ensure that Britain stay out, or if they do re-enter, it will be on the same basis as Poland - no veto and much reduced voting powers.

[abc123]

Hey, why not something like this:

After Falklands British Goverment sees all stupidity of its defence policy, and oreders 3 Nimitz-class aircraft carriers from USA?
:D

[RogueBeaver]

In other news, the MoD just defaulted.

[cumbria]

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Arts/Arts_/site_furniture/2007/06/11/maggietank460.jpg


Part 5

February 1991

February 1 – Labour party HQ.

Neil Kinnock: I think they have given us the next election.
Nearly one third of the Conservative parties MP’s is now openly against Thatcher.

Roy Hattersley: If a third of the Conservative MPs are de-selected, I would expect many of them to run as independent Conservatives, notably including the likes of Patten, Heseltine, Major and Hurd, thereby splitting the Conservative vote and letting us in by default. In fact, it could be very humiliating for Thatcher. I mean to say, why wouldn't they stand? They've been de-selected on a point of principle and they are likely to be spitting fire.

Kinnock: Happy days Roy happy day.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/eo/thumb/6/6f/Neil_Kinnock.jpg/250px-Neil_Kinnock.jpg

February 2 - The news that the government will reduce and reform the community charge and pay for it by a temporary rise in VAT receives a mixed reception among the public.
The Labour party insisting that higher VAT is a tax on the less well off and that Britain should return to the rating system.
A view that receives the majority of public support.
The reform of local government is also announced with local education authorities, fire and police services, benefits and housing among other things to be centralised.
Local government will be left with very little power.
The Conservatives hope such a move will save billions in administration costs and take away powers from left wing councils.
The number of local councillors will also be reduced by voluntary means.
The Liberal Democrats and the Labour party condemn the move.
At first the public is very much against this but when the Right Wing press pick up on local government largess and stories of “loony left councils” and their insane spending projects public support moves in the government’s direction.
As another sop to the old right and to gain further public support all the traditional shire councils will be returned but will have limited power.

The first of the Conservative de-selection procedures begins.
Initiated by local members.

http://www.israeli-weapons.com/history/desert_storm/ds_abrams2.jpg


7 February - Gulf War: Ground troops cross the Saudi Arabian border and enter Kuwait, thus starting the ground phase of the war.
The Provisional Irish Republican Army launch a mortar attack against 10 Downing Street, blowing in all the windows of the cabinet room, during a session of the War Cabinet.
This causes outrage across Britain and even greatest anti-IRA and Republican feeling.

8 February - Heavy snow disrupts the country for a second time during the winter 1990-1991 season as Britain experiences a prolonged cold snap.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/70000/images/_70776_downingstreet300.jpg

Cabinet Meeting

Powell: This outrageous attack presents us with a great opportunity Prime Minister.
We could once more embrace the Ulster Unionist Party and Unionism in general.
It will win us a large numbers of votes if we do this.
Of course we would have to abandon the Anglo-Irish Agreement.

Thatcher: I regret now signing the agreement.
Your opposition to the Agreement, I now believe that assessment was right.
The Anglo-Irish Agreement had alienated some pro-Ulster supporters in crucial constituencies in Scotland worse than anyone had predicted to me.

Powell: Indeed Prime Minister.

Thatcher: My assessment at the time was based on security policies.
Polices that would not alienate the Irish Government and Irish nationalist opinion in Ulster, in the hope of winning their support against the IRA.
Our concessions alienated the Unionists without gaining the level of security co-operation we had a right to expect. In the light of this experience it is surely time to
consider an alternative approach.
What would you suggest Enoch.

Powell: We must terminate the Anglo-Irish agreement with immediate effect.
Then offer to restore our alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party.
This will give us 9 extra MP’s.
Plus we could then count on the Democratic Unionist and Popular Unionist MP’s for support too.
This in turn, as you say Prime Minister would boost our support among the Orange sections of the Scottish population.
We would gain immediately the support of the small Scottish Unionist Party and the Scottish Orange Lodge.

Rifkind: I must object to this Prime Minister.
I do not want to see Scotland return to Sectarian politics.

Thatcher: Would you rather see us out of power Malcolm?

Rifkind doesn’t respond.

Peter Brooke: It could alienate a large section of the Northern Irish population against us Prime Minister.

Thatcher: I doubt anymore than they are already alienated Peter.
Let us vote in favour of Enoch’s measure.

10 in favour
9 against
4 abstained

Thatcher: I think we have a new policy on Northern Ireland Gentlemen.

http://assets2.parliament.uk/ext/mlo-bio-person/www.dodonline.co.uk/photos/26721.jpg.jpg


February 9 – Voters in Lithuania support independence.

February 11 – UNPO, the Unrepresented Nations & Peoples Organization, forms in The Hague, Netherlands.
Negotiations are entered into with all three Unionist parties in Northern Ireland.
All being told of government plans on the Anglo-Irish agreement in advance.

February 13 – Gulf War: Two laser-guided "smart bombs" destroy an underground bunker in Baghdad, killing hundreds of Iraqis. United States military intelligence claims it was a military facility but Iraqi officials identify it as a bomb shelter.

http://hashmonean.com/images/f15_gbu28.jpg

Prime Ministers Questions

Ken Clarke: Does the Prime Minister not think the order from on high to de-select candidates the Prime Minister doesn't like is the mark of some thing out of a Fascist Dictatorship not a modern Liberal Democracy?

Thatcher: What would be the mark of a Fascist Dictatorship would be MP not representing their local constituency association member’s view and instead forcing his own upon them.

Heseltine: Prime Minister does your policy of deselecting MP based on your disagreement with them not emphasise to the public how divided the government is?

Thatcher: A division very much of the members making.
However a division that the good members of the Conservative party will soon rectify.

Major: Prime Minister do you not think at the very least this shows a civil war is in progress and this is exactly how it will be portrayed in the media. There is no way a party in that kind of condition can win. Really, if we want to win, as highly unlikely as it is in my opinion, we must have unity.

Thatcher: Perhaps the member can find the unity he so desires on the opposition benches where he will find like minded souls who share his views on the betrayal of this country.

Hurd: If Prime Minister 108 MPs have openly said they disagree with the policy, how many take that view in private? If there were a leadership election again, Prime Minister you would lose.

Thatcher: If the member wishes to for a leadership for the leadership then he best put his name forward instead of making ridiculous assertions.
February 15 – The Visegrad Agreement, establishing cooperation to move toward free-market systems, is signed by the leaders of Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland.

http://www.quikmaneuvers.com/sitebuilder/images/IRA_Terrorism-321x259.jpg


February 18 – The Provisional Irish Republican Army explodes bombs in the early morning, at both Paddington station and Victoria station in London.

Thatcher announces the plan to terminate the Anglo-Irish agreement.
This is met with widespread praise in the press and among much of the public.
She also makes a defiant speech on the IRA which she finishes with the prise “We will never surrender”.

February 22 – Gulf War: Iraq accepts a Russian-proposed cease fire agreement. The U.S. rejects the agreement, but says that retreating Iraqi forces will not be attacked if they leave Kuwait within 24 hours.

http://www.leftrightjab.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/george-bush-sr.jpg


Thatcher phones George Bush on hearing the news.

Thatcher: What is this George about letting Iraqi troops leave Kuwait and go back to Iraq.

Bush: Well Margaret it seems a sensible option.

Thatcher: It seems like we are letting them get away.

Bush: Well Margaret our goal was to liberate Kuwait.

Thatcher: And what of Saddam?

Bush: We have nearly achieved our objectives Margaret.

Thatcher: Our objective is to remove that monster from power.
Tell me you are not thinking of stopping your troops at the border George?

Bush: Well er we where (interrupted).

Thatcher: We nothing George! Let’s not be going wobbly again.
We have a job to do.

Bush: It would be advisable I think to stop at the border.

Thatcher: Nonsense George. My boys shall be pushing to Baghdad with or without you.
Hopefully with you.

Bush: I will have to speak to the Chiefs of Staff.

Thatcher: Make sure you tell them we are not stopping till Baghdad.

Bush: Well err what we (interrupted).

Thatcher: I knew I could count on you George.
A born fighter for freedom who does his nation proud.

Bush: Thank you Margaret but (interrupted).

Thatcher: Thank you George. (hangs up).

Bush: Sweet Jesus get me the chiefs of staff some one!

February 22 – The One Meridian Plaza fire in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania kills 3 firefighters and destroys 8 floors of the building.

February 23 – In Thailand, General Sunthorn Kongsompong deposes Prime Minister Chatichai Choonhavan in a bloodless coup d'état.

February 25 – Gulf War: Part of an Iraqi Scud missile hits an American military barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 29 and injuring 99 U.S. soldiers. It is the single, most devastating attack on U.S. forces during that war.

http://www.iraqtimeline.com/graphics/scud.jpg


25 February - Alan Green, Director of Public Prosecution, announces that the Birmingham Six could soon be free from prison after 17 years as their convictions for terrorism and mass murder are no longer considered safe and satisfactory.

February 26 – Gulf War: On Baghdad radio, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein announces the withdrawal of Iraqi troops from Kuwait. Iraqi soldiers set fire to Kuwaiti oil fields as they retreat.

http://beyondrace.com/images/stories/saddam-hussein.jpg


28 February – George Bush and Margaret Thatcher announce they are crossing into Iraq with the goal of removing Saddam Hussein and his regime from power.
This causes consternation among the coalition forces with many nations deciding not to carry on with the attack.

Ulster Unionist Party members vote to merge with the Conservative party.

http://www.dailycomedy.com/images/jokes/b/rupert-murdoch.jpg


Rupert Murdoch decides to put his newspapers once again fully behind Thatcher and push for EEC withdrawal.
He is very impressed with her leadership in the Gulf.

http://cache3.asset-cache.net/xc/50454176.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=E41C9FE5C4AA0A14D34ADF54AB9DE9DB12B08E19689F1F57 C3743516FD0630AFB01E70F2B3269972

[Blackadder mk 2]

It seems that Thatcher will have a small majority but will resign later on.

[RogueBeaver]

In 1994 she will be 68, so that leaves 2 years for a successor to bolt down as much of Social Thatcherism as possible before the Lab tidal wave hits in 1996.

[Blackadder mk 2]

I wonder what the French and Germans are saying about this?

Spitting Image would probably portray this as Thatcher being Vader and Powell being the Emperor.

[Cymraeg]

Can we get an update on this? I'm enjoying the coming train wreck that will smash Thatcher's lunacy to pieces. :cool:

[Blackadder mk 2]

Can we get an update on this? I'm enjoying the coming train wreck that will smash Thatcher's lunacy to pieces. :cool:

I love how Thatcherites will think she will win and how Thatcher haters think she will crash and burn.

[cumbria]

I love how Thatcherites will think she will win and how Thatcher haters think she will crash and burn.

She creates a lot of passion.
Im no Thatcherite so im very neutral here.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

She creates a lot of passion.
Im no Thatcherite so im very neutral here.
What are your politics?

[cumbria]

What are your politics?

Mixture of views dont agree with any of the parties fully.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Cumbria where are you? We need to know whether Thatcher wins or not.;););)

[cumbria]

Cumbria where are you? We need to know whether Thatcher wins or not.;););)

Will try and get the next part done today.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Will try and get the next part done today.

Excellent.

[cumbria]

Part 6

http://www.solidprinciples.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/margaret-thatcher.jpg

March 1991

March 1 – Open rebellions begin in the southern and northern parts of Iraq, creating a humanitarian disaster on the borders of Turkey and Iran.
British and American forces sweep into Iraq.
Thatcher announced on TV that the stated objective of the invasion is to end the Hussein regime.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/2/24/1235514418342/British-airmen-in-Basra-I-002.jpg

Clayton Keith Yeutter finishes as the United States Secretary of Agriculture.

March 3 – An amateur video captures the beating of Rodney King by Los Angeles, California police officers.

Latvia and Estonia vote for independence from the Soviet Union.

United Airlines Flight 585 crashes in Colorado Springs, Colorado, killing all 25 people on board.

During the first week of the month 11 Conservative MP’s are de-selected by their constituency associations.

March 9 – Massive demonstrations are held against Slobodan Milošević and his Socialist government by Serb Nationalists and Monarchists in Belgrade; 2 people are killed and tanks are in the streets.

http://schools-wikipedia.org/images/364/36492.jpg

7 of the 11 deselected MP’s defect to the Liberal Democrats and 1 to the Labour party.

March 11 – A curfew is imposed on black townships in South Africa, after fighting between rival political gangs kills 49.

March 13 – The United States Department of Justice announces that Exxon has agreed to pay $1 billion for the clean-up of the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska.

March 14 – After 16 years in prison for allegedly bombing a public house in a Provisional Irish Republican Army attack, the "Birmingham Six" are freed when a court determines that the police fabricated evidence.
Major riots take place in Catholic areas of Northern Ireland.
The main causes are believed to be the Birmingham 6 announcement and the growing hard-line stance of the UK Government in support of Unionism.

http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00148/02-ira-getty_148641t.jpg

Malcolm Rifkin complains privately to Margaret Thatcher about the growing sectarian problems in N Ireland and Scotland.

March 15 – Four Los Angeles, California police officers are indicted for the videotaped March 3 beating of motorist Rodney King during an arrest.

Germany formally regains complete independence after the 4 post-World War II occupying powers (France, the United Kingdom, the United States and the Soviet Union) relinquish all remaining rights.

Unemployment is now above 2,000,000 for the first time since March 1989. The number of British workers employed in the manufacturing industry has fallen below 5,000,000 for the first time since records began.

http://cdn.wn.com/pd/f6/43/943021a028f5d23368e73c6d78c0_grande.jpg

March 16 – Latest polls show a large rise in Liberal Democrat support.

Lab 39%
Con 38%
Lib 19%
Oth 4%

March 19 - Baghdad fells, ending President Hussein's 24-year rule. Coalition troops seize the deserted Ba'ath Party ministries.

March 20 – As Baghdad falls into chaos Thatcher insists that British troops be allowed into the city to help restore order.
The right wing media use their front pages to show the Union Flag over Baghdad.

http://cdn.wn.com/pd/a4/58/e49e88124df3c8603c3c4ba8ceeb_grande.jpg

March 21 – British General Sir Peter Edgar de la Cour de la Billière advices against the breaking up of Iraq police forces and governmental structures.
As it would not aid good governance and a smooth transition to democracy.
A lot of Americans oppose this

March 22 – After Thatcher listens to the recommendation of her General she phones President Bush and offers her Generals Recommendations.
The President who was reluctant to invade Iraq in the first place accepts the proposals and passes them down to the American General Staff.

March 26 – In Mali, military officers led by Amadou Toumani Touré arrest President Moussa Traoré and suspend the constitution.

Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay signed the Treaty of Asunción, establishing South Common Market (Mercosur its acronym in Spanish)

5 more Conservative MP’s join the Lib Dems.

Polls put the Conservatives in the lead for the first time since March 1989.
The Gulf War bounce is given as the main reason for this.
Added support in Northern Ireland and Scotland is also a contributing factor.

Con 39%
Lab 36%
Lib 22%
Oth 3%

Michael Heseltine asks de-selected MP’s not to go over to the Liberal Democrats but instead stand as independent Conservatives in any up coming election.

28 March - An inquest in Sheffield into the Hillsborough disaster in which 95 British Footballs fans died records a verdict of accidental death as a result of the tragedy almost two years ago. Many of the victims' families criticise the verdict, as many of them had been hoping for a verdict of unlawful killing against the police officers who patrolled the game.

http://amazingdata.com/mediadata24/Image/hot_weird_funny_amazing_cool_a-hillsborough-disaster-football-1_200907251921555218.jpg

29 March - Sir John Stradling Thomas, Tory MP for Monmouth, dies aged 65.

March 30 – Northern Michigan University wins the NCAA Division I title in hockey, 8–7 in the third overtime against Boston University.

March 31 – Albania has its first multi-party elections.

March 31 – Georgian independence referendum, 1991: Georgia votes for independence from the Soviet Union.

By the end of the month they have been 78 de-selection votes held (including the figures from earlier this month) of which 48 have been successful.
Of the 48 by the end of the month 21 have joined the Liberal Democrats, 5 have joined Labour and the rest sit as independents.
30 MP’s who faced de-selection withdrew their pro-EEC support and pledged to vote for withdrawal to their constituency members.
All Thatcher’s main serious party rivals survived moves to deselect them.
The Conservative and Unionist Party now only had a very small majority in parliament backed by 3 Democratic Unionist MP’s and 1 Popular Unionist.

Conservative party membership in Scotland is up by 3000 in one month.
It is believed large numbers of Orangemen are joining the Conservative party.

Polls at the end of the month are as follows –

Con 40%
Lab 36%
Lib 21%
Oth 3%

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45632000/jpg/_45632163_kinnock_bbc226.jpg

There are very heavy attacks on Neil Kinnock and the Labour party in the right wing press but also now attacks are turned on the Liberal Democrats.
Neil Kinnock contemplates a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister at the next opportunity.

http://dailyissue.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/r_thatcher.jpg

[Blackadder mk 2]

Hooray the LibDems get a shot of having more than 75 seats. :D:D:D:D:D

Oh Cumbria your TL's always know how to make me happy or excited. :p

[The Viscount Cranleigh]

Why is Thatcher withdrawing from the EEC? She only discovered real anti-Europeanism after she left office; as Major put it: "she would have signed Maastricht and every minister who worked with her knew it" (or words to that effect). Thatcher was much more a pragmatist than you give her credit for; she signed the Single European Act, remember; she liked anti-European rhetoric, but wouldn't do something so daft as isolate Britain from *everywhere* just over an ideal. And Powell? What is it with Powell? He and Thatcher didn't even get on that well. Why have you got Powell as backseat PM?

[cumbria]

Why is Thatcher withdrawing from the EEC? She only discovered real anti-Europeanism after she left office; as Major put it: "she would have signed Maastricht and every minister who worked with her knew it" (or words to that effect). Thatcher was much more a pragmatist than you give her credit for; she signed the Single European Act, remember; she liked anti-European rhetoric, but wouldn't do something so daft as isolate Britain from *everywhere* just over an ideal. And Powell? What is it with Powell? He and Thatcher didn't even get on that well. Why have you got Powell as backseat PM?

At Bruges, Belgium, in 1988, Thatcher made a speech in which she outlined her opposition to proposals from the European Community, a forerunner to the European Union, for a federal structure and increasing centralisation of decision-making.Though she had supported British membership in the EC, Thatcher believed that the role of the organisation should be limited to ensuring free trade and effective competition, and feared that the EC approach to governing was at odds with her views of smaller government and deregulatory trends; in 1988, she remarked, "We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level, with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels". A split was emerging over European policy inside the British Government and her Conservative Party.
On 30 November 1988, when the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Britain's detention provisions were in breach of European law, the policy split extended to parliament with the presentation of a petition calling for a written British constitution. Thatcher reacted angrily to the ECHR ruling, and to the failure of Belgium and Ireland to extradite a suspected terrorist, Father Patrick Ryan, to face charges in Britain. She told the Commons: "We shall consider the judgment carefully and also the human rights of the victims and potential victims of terrorism."
At a meeting before the Madrid European Community summit in June 1989, Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson and Foreign Secretary Geoffrey Howe sought to persuade Thatcher to agree to circumstances under which the United Kingdom would join the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a preparation for monetary union, and abolish the pound as British currency. At the meeting, they both said they would resign if their demands were not met.Thatcher, as well as her economic advisor Alan Walters, was opposed to this notion and felt that the pound sterling should be able to float freely,and that membership would constrain the UK economy.Both Lawson and Howe eventually resigned and Thatcher remained firmly opposed to British membership in the European Monetary System.

[cumbria]

Why is Thatcher withdrawing from the EEC? She only discovered real anti-Europeanism after she left office; as Major put it: "she would have signed Maastricht and every minister who worked with her knew it" (or words to that effect). Thatcher was much more a pragmatist than you give her credit for; she signed the Single European Act, remember; she liked anti-European rhetoric, but wouldn't do something so daft as isolate Britain from *everywhere* just over an ideal. And Powell? What is it with Powell? He and Thatcher didn't even get on that well. Why have you got Powell as backseat PM?

After Thatcher's Bruges speechin September 1988 and her increasing hostility to the abolition of the pound sterling in the last years of her premiership, Powell made many speeches publicly supporting her attitude to Europe. When Heath attacked Thatcher's speech in May 1989 Powell called him "the old virtuoso of the U-turn".[ When inflation crept up that year he blamed the Chancellor Nigel Lawson's policy of printing money so sterling would shadow the German Deutschmark so it could in turn join European Monetary System. During early September 1989 a collection of Powell's speeches on Europe was published titled Enoch Powell on 1992 (1992 being the year set for the European Single Market). In a speech at Chatham House for the launch of the book on 6 September, he advised Thatcher to fight the next general election on a nationalist theme as many Eastern European nations previously under Russian rule were gaining their freedom. At the Conservative Party conference in October he told a fringe meeting: "I find myself today less on the fringe of that party than I have done for 20 years". After Thatcher resisted further European integration at a meeting at Strasbourg in November Powell asked her parliamentary private secretary Mark Lennox-Boyd to pass to her "my respectful congratulations on her stand...she both spoke for Britain and gave a lead to Europe – in the line of succession of Winston Churchill and William Pitt. Those who lead are always out in front, alone". Thatcher replied: "I am deeply touched by your words. They give me the greatest possible encouragement".
On 5 January 1990, addressing Conservatives in Liverpool, Powell claimed that if the Conservatives played the "British card" at the next general election they could win; that the new mood in Britain for "self-determination" had given the newly independent nations of Eastern Europe a "beacon", adding that Britain should stand alone, if necessary, for European freedom, adding: "We are taunted – by the French, by the Italians, by the Spaniards – for refusing to worship at the shrine of a common government superimposed upon them all...where were the European unity merchants in 1940? I will tell you. They were either writhing under a hideous oppression or they were aiding and abetting that oppression. Lucky for Europe that Britain was alone in 1940". The Conservative Party would have to, preferably at the next election, ask: "Do you intend still to control the laws which you obey, the taxes you pay and the policies of your government? Five days after this speech, in an interview for The Daily Telegraph, Thatcher praised Powell: "I have always read Enoch Powell's speeches and articles very carefully... I always think it was a tragedy that he left. He is a very, very able politician. I say that even though he has sometimes said vitriolic things against me". On the day of the Mid-Staffordshire by-election Powell claimed that the government should admit the poll tax was "a disaster" and that what mattered most to the people of Mid-Staffordshire was the question of who should govern Britain and that only the Conservative Party was advocating that the British should govern themselves. Thatcher had been labelled "dictatorial" for wanting to "go it alone" in Europe: "Well, I do not mind somebody being dictatorial in defending my own rights and those of my fellow countrymen...lose self-government, and I have lost everything, and for good". This was the first election since 1970 that Powell was advocating a vote for the Conservative Party.

When Thatcher was challenged by Michael Heseltine for the leadership of the Conservative Party during November 1990, Powell said he would rejoin the party – which he had left in February 1974 over the issue of Europe – if Thatcher won, and would urge the public to support both her and, in Powell's view, national independence. He wrote to one of Thatcher's supporters, Norman Tebbit, on 16 November telling him Thatcher was entitled to use his name and his support in any way she saw fit. As it turned out she resigned, and Powell never rejoined the Conservative party. On 22 November Thatcher announced her intention to resign.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

Your idea for Scotland just wouldn't fly. No way. Sorry.

I actually considered doing a timeline a while back about how to keep the Scottish Tories as the dominant party in Scotland, and I believe it could have been achieved, but not by the way you are stating.

First off, the Orange vote would never fly in Tory seats of the time. Indeed it would potentially backfire and ensure wavering voters vote tactically to keep the Tories out. I am thinking of places such as Perth, North Tayside, East Angus*, North East Fife*, Edinburgh Pentlands etc. In mainstream society, they would be seen as nought but bigots.

I mean to say Scotland had changed quite a bit from the fifties. In the fifties church attendence in Scotland was a scary high number. By the nineties, the number of people not claiming to be a member of any faith(read lapsed CoS) was higher than the number of Catholics in Scotland.

Also, the Orange vote was always combined with the unionist-nationalist ideology put forward by John Buchan. (the man who said every Scotsman in his heart is a Scottish nationalist). With Thatcher in charge, who was by this point deeply unpopular in Scotland and was seen(in my view correctly)as an English nationalist and alien to Scotland, there would be no chance of that Scottish-unionist-nationalist ideology being resurrected. You are leaving out the nationalism but keeping the bigotry.

As such, I would suggest a split between the Scottish and main UK Conservative Party ala the CDU/CSU in Germany. If you want to call them the Scottish Unionist Party, it may be an idea, with the leader becoming Scottish Secretary in a Thatcher Cabinet.

If you go the way you are going, the Scottish Tories would be doomed sooner than otl.

*Neither Tory seats going into the '92 election, but concievable target seats.

[The Viscount Cranleigh]

Long unparagraphed quote

Certainly, Thatcher was not pro-European, but she was a pragmatist who signed the Single European Act and who her Chancellor and Foreign Secretary swears would have signed Maastricht. Withdrawal from the EEC was..... lunatic, considered only by the fringes of political thought at the time. She was a Eurosceptic, yes, but withdrawal from the EEC is a whole 'nother level of anti-Europeanism.

And as for Powell, by 1990, his star had long since fallen. He was the hero of the working man in 1968. By the 1980s, he was yesterday's man. By the early 1990s, he wouldn't even have been on the public radar. Sure, he can "rejoin" the party and offer his name, but its not going to mean much at that stage. The two disliked each other intensley; Powell, on being told that Thatcher had "adopted Powellism", remarked that it "was a pity she never understood it". He may like her anti-European stance, but he isn't going to become her No. 2 just on that, and even if he did, she wouldn't have him.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

They only seem to have 3000 members at the most so that means they would have the worlds largest amount of luck if they won a single seat.
In 1992, the Scottish Tories did well, considering they were predicted to be wiped out before the campaign began. That they ended up with eleven seats. This was done through a negative campaign which to an extent succeeded, but alienated most non-Tories. I am quibbling as today as the Labour Party in Scotland has 20,000 members and Labour is the largest party in Scotland. 3,000 in a month is a huge number to join the Tories in comparison so would indicate support which I doubt would be there.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Certainly, Thatcher was not pro-European, but she was a pragmatist who signed the Single European Act and who her Chancellor and Foreign Secretary swears would have signed Maastricht. Withdrawal from the EEC was..... lunatic, considered only by the fringes of political thought at the time.

And as for Powell, by 1990, his star had long since fallen. He was the hero of the working man in 1968. By the 1980s, he was yesterday's man. By the early 1990s, he wouldn't even have been on the public radar. Sure, he can "rejoin" the party and offer his name, but its not going to mean much at that stage. The two disliked each other intensley; Powell, on being told that Thatcher had "adopted Powellism", remarked that it "was a pity she never understood it". He may like her anti-European stance, but he isn't going to become her No. 2 just on that, and even if he did, she wouldn't have him.

With all due respect the day I trust Major and Lawson to tell me about Thatcher is the day I trust Tebbit with Scotland.

About Powell I said the same thing but apparently he's the 4th most popular politician (55th person) on the 100 Greatest Britons beaten only by Churchill, Thatcher and Bevan (founder of the NHS) and beating Tony Blair, Lyold George, Henry V, the Queen Mother and the Unknown Warrior.

[Blackadder mk 2]

In 1992, the Scottish Tories did well, considering they were predicted to be wiped out before the campaign began. That they ended up with eleven seats. This was done through a negative campaign which to an extent succeeded, but alienated most non-Tories. I am quibbling as today, the Labour Party in Scotland has 20,000 members and Labour is the largest party in Scotland. 3,000 in a month is a huge number to join the Tories in comparison so would indicate support which I doubt would be there.

It appears I overestimated the amount of members in a Scottish main political party and acknowledge your superior knowledge of early 90's Scottish politics.;)

[cumbria]

Your idea for Scotland just wouldn't fly. No way. Sorry.

I actually considered doing a timeline a while back about how to keep the Scottish Tories as the dominant party in Scotland, and I believe it could have been achieved, but not by the way you are stating.

First off, the Orange vote would never fly in Tory seats of the time. Indeed it would potentially backfire and ensure wavering voters vote tactically to keep the Tories out. I am thinking of places such as Perth, North Tayside, East Angus*, North East Fife*, Edinburgh Pentlands etc. In mainstream society, they would be seen as nought but bigots.

I mean to say Scotland had changed quite a bit from the fifties. In the fifties church attendence in Scotland was a scary high number. By the nineties, the number of people not claiming to be a member of any faith(read lapsed CoS) was higher than the number of Catholics in Scotland.

Also, the Orange vote was always combined with the unionist-nationalist ideology put forward by John Buchan. (the man who said every Scotsman in his heart is a Scottish nationalist). With Thatcher in charge, who was by this point deeply unpopular in Scotland and was seen(in my view correctly)as an English nationalist and alien to Scotland, there would be no chance of that Scottish-unionist-nationalist ideology being resurrected. You are leaving out the nationalism but keeping the bigotry.

As such, I would suggest a split between the Scottish and main UK Conservative Party ala the CDU/CSU in Germany. If you want to call them the Scottish Unionist Party, it may be an idea, with the leader becoming Scottish Secretary in a Thatcher Cabinet.

If you go the way you are going, the Scottish Tories would be doomed sooner than otl.

*Neither Tory seats going into the '92 election, but concievable target seats.

The Scottish Unionist Party broke away from the Conservatives in OTL over the Anglo-Irish agreement and the Conservatives lost a lot of Orange support over the issue.
The Orange Order in Scotland claimed that one thousand people left the Conservative Party in protest against the Agreement right away.
Thatcher was taken aback by the ferocity of the unionist response and in her memoirs she said their reaction was "worse than anyone had predicted to me". She furthermore claimed that the Agreement was in the tradition of British governments refraining "from security policies that might alienate the Irish Government and Irish nationalist opinion in Ulster, in the hope of winning their support against the IRA". However Thatcher perceived the results of this to be disappointing because "our concessions alienated the Unionists without gaining the level of security co-operation we had a right to expect. In the light of this experience it is surely time to consider an alternative approach". In 1998 Thatcher said she regretted signing the Agreement and said of Enoch Powell's opposition to the Agreement: "I now believe that his assessment was right".
OTL 1992 saw the Tories win 25% of the vote and 11 seats in Scotland.
Which is far better than anything since.
In 1987 they got 24% and 19 seats.
The moves made may well keep them at that level or even increase it slightly.

[cumbria]

Certainly, Thatcher was not pro-European, but she was a pragmatist who signed the Single European Act and who her Chancellor and Foreign Secretary swears would have signed Maastricht. Withdrawal from the EEC was..... lunatic, considered only by the fringes of political thought at the time. She was a Eurosceptic, yes, but withdrawal from the EEC is a whole 'nother level of anti-Europeanism.

And as for Powell, by 1990, his star had long since fallen. He was the hero of the working man in 1968. By the 1980s, he was yesterday's man. By the early 1990s, he wouldn't even have been on the public radar. Sure, he can "rejoin" the party and offer his name, but its not going to mean much at that stage. The two disliked each other intensley; Powell, on being told that Thatcher had "adopted Powellism", remarked that it "was a pity she never understood it". He may like her anti-European stance, but he isn't going to become her No. 2 just on that, and even if he did, she wouldn't have him.

Ive just told you how Powell and Thatcher had made up quite a lot by this time.
Powell is still well known today let alone in 1991.
As for Thatcher her own words in Oct 1992.-

"Like many of my fellow Tories, I too have a favourite quotation from Disraeli. At Manchester in 1872 he said that "the programme of the Conservative Party is to maintain the Constitution of the country". This Conservative government, like its predecessors, should have as its main priority the maintenance of our constitutional freedoms, our democratic institutions, and the accountability of Parliament to the people. Because I believe in these principles so deeply I cannot support the ratification of the Maastricht treaty, and I welcome sterling's departure from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).
The ERM and Maastricht are inextricably linked. The first is a prerequisite to the fulfilment of the second. We found the confines of the first unbearable; the strait-jacket of the second would be ruinous. Thanks to the decision to float the pound, we now have a chance to follow an economic policy that puts British needs first. Like the Maastricht treaty, the ERM in no way represents what is best for British interests."

[cumbria]

In 1992, the Scottish Tories did well, considering they were predicted to be wiped out before the campaign began. That they ended up with eleven seats. This was done through a negative campaign which to an extent succeeded, but alienated most non-Tories. I am quibbling as today as the Labour Party in Scotland has 20,000 members and Labour is the largest party in Scotland. 3,000 in a month is a huge number to join the Tories in comparison so would indicate support which I doubt would be there.

The Scottish Orange Lodge alone has 50,000 members.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

The Scottish Unionist Party broke away from the Conservatives in OTL over the Anglo-Irish agreement and the Conservatives lost a lot of Orange support over the issue.
The Orange Order in Scotland claimed that one thousand people left the Conservative Party in protest against the Agreement right away.
Thatcher was taken aback by the ferocity of the unionist response and in her memoirs she said their reaction was "worse than anyone had predicted to me". She furthermore claimed that the Agreement was in the tradition of British governments refraining "from security policies that might alienate the Irish Government and Irish nationalist opinion in Ulster, in the hope of winning their support against the IRA". However Thatcher perceived the results of this to be disappointing because "our concessions alienated the Unionists without gaining the level of security co-operation we had a right to expect. In the light of this experience it is surely time to consider an alternative approach". In 1998 Thatcher said she regretted signing the Agreement and said of Enoch Powell's opposition to the Agreement: "I now believe that his assessment was right".
OTL 1992 saw the Tories win 25% of the vote and 11 seats in Scotland.
Which is far better than anything since.
In 1987 they got 24% and 19 seats.
The moves made may well keep them at that level or even increase it slightly.
What’s the point?

I have attempted to give you an alternative which would give the Tories a conceivable chance at avoiding what was an impending disaster in 1997. You ignore it stating they did what you call well at the 1992 election. In Scotland they ran a totally negative campaign, arguing they were the only party to save the union and that what was left in Scotland would be destroyed by the Labour Party/SNP.. It worked in Fptp, but alienated non-Tory voters to a huge extent, ensuring a huge amount of tactical voting in 1997, I mean to say, why do you think Eastwood fell?
　
Also, even if 1,000 left the Scottish Tories over the Anglo-Irish agreement, that does not equate with treble that number joining the Tories a few years later(assuming all of them would rejoin which is unlikely in itself given the PM who signed the agreement would still be in office). Again, I will point out that Labour is the largest political party in Scotland with 20,000 members. In the space of a month, you have had the equivalent of 15% of the entire Scottish Labour Party joining the Scottish Conservatives.

Yeah. Right.
　
Also bear in mind, if you want sectarian politics, you have done this after the Sermon on the Mound, where Thatcher managed to piss off the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. That’d do the trick.
　
The Tories election results between 1945-1997 in otl were as follows in Scotland;

116046



Note in the graph, the Scottish Unionists merged with the UK Conservative Party in 1965, due to poor results, comparatively in 1959 and in 1964. They have never attained the heights they attained in 1964 since the merger.
　
What you have done in this timeline is attempt to recreate the Orange vote, which would not be nearly as great as in the fifties due to the changing nature of Scottish society, and wouldn’t make sense in a Scottish context, and would make the Scottish Tories look like bigoted opportunists.
　
A way of avoiding this would be a CDU/CSU style split, encouraging the Tories in Scotland to campaign on a more local level, allowing them to return to their old John Buchan Unionist-Nationalist position which could stop the rise of the SNP and taking the focus away from Thatcher, who was unpopular with the vast majority of Scots, be they of any political persuasion.
　
Ignore me, listen, its up to yourself. Its intended as advice to help you restore the Scottish Tories, if that is what you want to do.

The Scottish Orange Lodge alone has 50,000 members.

And of course you think they would all magically vote Tory. If you want an example, I have an uncle who is a member of the Bridgeton Orange Lodge, and is also a commited Trade Unionist and Labour Party member. He is hardly unique either.

Also, outside the West Coast(ie. where the vast majority of Tory seats are located), the lodge has hardly any members. I remember witnessing an Orange Parade in Dundee once. Around fifteen took part. FFS , look at the religious figures in Scotland. Please. I repeat, the number of lapsed CoS members now outnumbers Roman Catholics. You are equating the fifties with the nineties.

Then again, go ahead and ignore my advice. :rolleyes:

[cumbria]

What’s the point?

I have attempted to give you an alternative which would give the Tories a conceivable chance at avoiding what was an impending disaster in 1997. You ignore it stating they did what you call well at the 1992 election. In Scotland they ran a totally negative campaign, arguing they were the only party to save the union and that what was left in Scotland would be destroyed by the Labour Party/SNP.. It worked in Fptp, but alienated non-Tory voters to a huge extent, ensuring a huge amount of tactical voting in 1997, I mean to say, why do you think Eastwood fell?
　
Also, even if 1,000 left the Scottish Tories over the Anglo-Irish agreement, that does not equate with treble that number joining the Tories a few years later(assuming all of them would rejoin which is unlikely in itself given the PM who signed the agreement would still be in office). Again, I will point out that Labour is the largest political party in Scotland with 20,000 members. In the space of a month, you have had the equivalent of 15% of the entire Scottish Labour Party joining the Scottish Conservatives.

Yeah. Right.
　
Also bear in mind, if you want sectarian politics, you have done this after the Sermon on the Mound, where Thatcher managed to piss off the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. That’d do the trick.
　
The Tories election results between 1945-1997 in otl were as follows in Scotland;

116046



Note in the graph, the Scottish Unionists merged with the UK Conservative Party in 1965, due to poor results, comparatively in 1959 and in 1964. They have never attained the heights they attained in 1964 since the merger.
　
What you have done in this timeline is attempt to recreate the Orange vote, which would not be nearly as great as in the fifties due to the changing nature of Scottish society, and wouldn’t make sense in a Scottish context, and would make the Scottish Tories look like bigoted opportunists.
　
A way of avoiding this would be a CDU/CSU style split, encouraging the Tories in Scotland to campaign on a more local level, allowing them to return to their old John Buchan Unionist-Nationalist position which could stop the rise of the SNP and taking the focus away from Thatcher, who was unpopular with the vast majority of Scots, be they of any political persuasion.
　
Ignore me, listen, its up to yourself. Its intended as advice to help you restore the Scottish Tories, if that is what you want to do.

And of course you think they would all magically vote Tory. If you want an example, I have an uncle who is a member of the Bridgeton Orange Lodge, and is also a commited Trade Unionist and Labour Party member. He is hardly unique either.

Also, outside the West Coast(ie. where the vast majority of Tory seats are located), the lodge has hardly any members. I remember witnessing an Orange Parade in Dundee once. Around fifteen took part. FFS , look at the religious figures in Scotland. Please. I repeat, the number of lapsed CoS members now outnumbers Roman Catholics. You are equating the fifties with the nineties.

Then again, go ahead and ignore my advice. :rolleyes:

It isn’t what I want to happen but what can happen given the historical context of the timeline.
You need to leave your left wing bias at the door when dealing with things like this.
The Tories have always been at their electoral best when they are "bigoted opportunists" as you put it.
The potential Orange vote is still there with the Scottish Unionist Party beating the official Conservative candidate in elections to parliament as recently as a few years ago.
Even Thatcher and a lot of the Conservative high command realised how badly the signing of the Anglo-Irish agreement effected the Orange and Unionist vote in Scotland.

[Cymraeg]

I'm still enjoying this timeline, even if you do seem to have Thatcher going even madder than she already was. And I echo FoS's comments about Scotland. You're equating the '50s with the '90s - you can't turn the clock back.
And as for Powell - :eek: yeep, he's still a scary mad s.o.b.

[cumbria]

I'm still enjoying this timeline, even if you do seem to have Thatcher going even madder than she already was. And I echo FoS's comments about Scotland. You're equating the '50s with the '90s - you can't turn the clock back.
And as for Powell - :eek: yeep, he's still a scary mad s.o.b.

Im equating Scotland with the 1990's.
If I was equating it with the 1950's when the party had 150,000 members on the West Coast alone they wouldnt be 3,000 people joining but 30,000.
Thatcher's views in this timeline are her OTL views from the 1990's.

[thevaliant]

What’s the point?

Then again, go ahead and ignore my advice. :rolleyes:

The problem I find with these TL is that a decision is reached about what Cumbria wants to achieve, and then goes off to the extreme (usually right) on the assumption that this is what the public want. It may be what Cumbria wants, but Cumbria isn't the public and the public don't want that.

Fact is, most elections are won in the centre. Thatcher calling in a politician from the 1960's (Powell) and going even more barking mad isn't going to win her an election in 1991.

[GrayAnderson]

Im equating Scotland with the 1990's.
If I was equating it with the 1950's when the party had 150,000 members on the West Coast alone they wouldnt be 3,000 people joining but 30,000.
Thatcher's views in this timeline are her OTL views from the 1990's.
Just a thought here, but is there some chance that "party members" and "party supporters" are in some way getting mangled here? Party memberships in UK tend to be in the 250,000 range (Tories, 2005)...mind you, I'm excluding Labour's paper union memberships (the unions essentially buying blocks of votes at the conferences for years), but that's how things shake out.

Compare this to the number of voters at the election before (2005: Tories got about 8.8 million votes)...I know you're trying to portray something narrower than votes, but 150,000 members? In Scotland in 2005, there were only 2.2 million votes cast (though it was 2.9 million in 1992, to be fair).

[Cymraeg]

Im equating Scotland with the 1990's.
If I was equating it with the 1950's when the party had 150,000 members on the West Coast alone they wouldnt be 3,000 people joining but 30,000.
Thatcher's views in this timeline are her OTL views from the 1990's.
I know, but IIRC Thatcher was fantastically unpopular in Scotland at the time. There was a perception that she used Scotland as a test area for the Poll Tax. She certainly wasn't comfortable there.

[cumbria]

The problem I find with these TL is that a decision is reached about what Cumbria wants to achieve, and then goes off to the extreme (usually right) on the assumption that this is what the public want. It may be what Cumbria wants, but Cumbria isn't the public and the public don't want that.

Fact is, most elections are won in the centre. Thatcher calling in a politician from the 1960's (Powell) and going even more barking mad isn't going to win her an election in 1991.

Elections were not won on the so called "centre" in 1970, 79, 83 or 87.
You need to leave your politics aside to look at history in a realistic manner.

[cumbria]

Just a thought here, but is there some chance that "party members" and "party supporters" are in some way getting mangled here? Party memberships in UK tend to be in the 250,000 range (Tories, 2005)...mind you, I'm excluding Labour's paper union memberships (the unions essentially buying blocks of votes at the conferences for years), but that's how things shake out.

Compare this to the number of voters at the election before (2005: Tories got about 8.8 million votes)...I know you're trying to portray something narrower than votes, but 150,000 members? In Scotland in 2005, there were only 2.2 million votes cast (though it was 2.9 million in 1992, to be fair).

In 1951 at it's peak it had 2.9 million members.
By 1975 this was down to 1,120 million.
In 1990 it was down to just under 1 million.
By 2000 it was down to 400,000.
Today the Conservative party has 177,000 members.

[cumbria]

I know, but IIRC Thatcher was fantastically unpopular in Scotland at the time. There was a perception that she used Scotland as a test area for the Poll Tax. She certainly wasn't comfortable there.

It was actually the Scottish Tories who asked for the Poll tax to run early in Scotland.
Thatcher still polled very well at every election in Scotland compared to any time since 1997.
The testing ground legend was born from Spitting Image who used it in a famous sketch.

[Cymraeg]

It was actually the Scottish Tories who asked for the Poll tax to run early in Scotland.
Thatcher still polled very well at every election in Scotland compared to any time since 1997.
The testing ground legend was born from Spitting Image who used it in a famous sketch.

Yes, but by 1990-91 she'd become very unpopular. According to an old mate of mine when the news broke that she'd resigned all the people in Glasgow Airport stopped what they were doing and cheered to the rafters.
And saying that she polled very well in Scotland compared to any time since 1997 is a touch disengenous of you - 1997 saw the Tories slaughtered in Scotland and Wales, losing every single MP.
Thatcher turning hard right would just make her even more unpopular.

[wargamer6]

What are de-selection votes?

[Blackadder mk 2]

Yes, but by 1990-91 she'd become very unpopular. According to an old mate of mine when the news broke that she'd resigned all the people in Glasgow Airport stopped what they were doing and cheered to the rafters.
And saying that she polled very well in Scotland compared to any time since 1997 is a touch disengenous of you - 1997 saw the Tories slaughtered in Scotland and Wales, losing every single MP.
Thatcher turning hard right would just make her even more unpopular.

That's seven years after where TTL is in and in 1997 Thatcher would be long gone in 1995 according to RB.

What are de-selection votes?

It's when a political party withdraws support from one of their elected office-holders at a subsequent election. A new candidate must then be selected by that party. The deselected representative is usually free to still contest the election as an Independent or as a representative of another party.

[Grey Wolf]

I just read this as 'Blackadder's Last Stand'...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

.

[FletcherofSaltoun]

It isn’t what I want to happen but what can happen given the historical context of the timeline.
You need to leave your left wing bias at the door when dealing with things like this.
The Tories have always been at their electoral best when they are "bigoted opportunists" as you put it.
The potential Orange vote is still there with the Scottish Unionist Party beating the official Conservative candidate in elections to parliament as recently as a few years ago.
Even Thatcher and a lot of the Conservative high command realised how badly the signing of the Anglo-Irish agreement effected the Orange and Unionist vote in Scotland.
I get it isn't what you want to happen, but if you actually read my post rather than make accusations, you would get I am actually saying what you are doing would not revive the Tory party, and I have explained why. That you disagree is neither here nor there. I happen to have been brought up in a very Tory area, and am friends with a few Scots Tory party members who would be appalled at the way you seem to think they would happily go. I do not believe the Tories are bigoted oppurtunists, and although I disagree with them, I respect them. I really take offence at being accused of left-wing bias because I bloody point out how daft your idea is.

What you are proposing is beyond any sense. In constituencies such as the one I was brought up in, North Tayside, had Bill Walker gone down the Orange route, he would have lost in '92 as the Labour voters would have voted Scot Nat alongside any moderate Presbyterians. Ditto all the other seats outside west-central Scotland. In the seats their vote would go up in, they are so far behind Labour, they would be unlikely to tip the balance.

As for the potential, the Scottish Unionist Party is nought but a fringe party and never has been more. I mean to say, if you ask the average Scot in the street, he or she will never have heard of them. As to you bigging them up as serious centre-right rivals to the Tories, well that is laughable. If they finished above the Tories in any seat, that says more about the Tories poor performances in Scotlsand that any strong SUP showing.

In addition, I am well aware of the fact an orange vote exists, but it is far smaller than you make it out to be. And if you are putting the decline of the Scottish Tories down to the Anglo-Irish agreement, you are deluded.

I feel I have been fair here. I think what you are suggesting for the Scottish Tories is deluded and wrong. It would lose them their seats in the east and gain them votes in seats where you weigh the Labour vote. It would also lose them many members in constituencies such as the one I was brought up in. Probably to the SNP. The Tories would also almost certainlyt be condemed by the Church of Scotland for such a move.

You are beyond sense and reason. You choose your course(in both your timelines hard-right) and bluster through it despite all the evidence to the contrary. There is little more that can be said. Don't worry, I wont be postng any mor in this thread as it would be akin to talking to a brick wall, and I wish to preserve my sanity.

[Dunois]

I have to endorse what Fletcher has just said here and I must say that I find the accusation fo "left wing bias" against him to be excessive. Even if he has a left wing bias it does not means that his opinion has to be ignored for that reason. This is called critical thinking cumbria simply.

The Scottish Unionist Party is a joke party and nothing more. It is very naïve to assume that simply because the Anglo-Irish agreement is repealed, Orange lodge members will flock en masse to the Tory Party. Some of them especially the working class ones will want nothing to do with "the party who destroyed our pits and mills". Some will simply stop voting for one reason or the other.

In any case repealing a law for the sake of repealing it is not a wise move, especially in the case of Northern Ireland.

As for bringing Enoch on board, as much as I have some esteem for the man. He is too old by now and the idea of parachuting him back in Parliament is frankly laughable.

[Blackadder mk 2]

As for bringing Enoch on board, as much as I have some esteem for the man. He is too old by now and the idea of parachuting him back in Parliament is frankly laughable.

How about we shot from a cannon into Parliament.

[cumbria]

Yes, but by 1990-91 she'd become very unpopular. According to an old mate of mine when the news broke that she'd resigned all the people in Glasgow Airport stopped what they were doing and cheered to the rafters.
And saying that she polled very well in Scotland compared to any time since 1997 is a touch disengenous of you - 1997 saw the Tories slaughtered in Scotland and Wales, losing every single MP.
Thatcher turning hard right would just make her even more unpopular.

They haven’t recovered since 1997 either which proves a left wing conservative party is no good at winning votes.
Being against the EEC and back behind Unionism will win votes in Scotland simple as that.
Populism!

[cumbria]

What are de-selection votes?

Where the local members of an electoral district can vote to remove their parties support from their electoral representative.

[cumbria]

I get it isn't what you want to happen, but if you actually read my post rather than make accusations, you would get I am actually saying what you are doing would not revive the Tory party, and I have explained why. That you disagree is neither here nor there. I happen to have been brought up in a very Tory area, and am friends with a few Scots Tory party members who would be appalled at the way you seem to think they would happily go. I do not believe the Tories are bigoted oppurtunists, and although I disagree with them, I respect them. I really take offence at being accused of left-wing bias because I bloody point out how daft your idea is.

What you are proposing is beyond any sense. In constituencies such as the one I was brought up in, North Tayside, had Bill Walker gone down the Orange route, he would have lost in '92 as the Labour voters would have voted Scot Nat alongside any moderate Presbyterians. Ditto all the other seats outside west-central Scotland. In the seats their vote would go up in, they are so far behind Labour, they would be unlikely to tip the balance.

As for the potential, the Scottish Unionist Party is nought but a fringe party and never has been more. I mean to say, if you ask the average Scot in the street, he or she will never have heard of them. As to you bigging them up as serious centre-right rivals to the Tories, well that is laughable. If they finished above the Tories in any seat, that says more about the Tories poor performances in Scotlsand that any strong SUP showing.

In addition, I am well aware of the fact an orange vote exists, but it is far smaller than you make it out to be. And if you are putting the decline of the Scottish Tories down to the Anglo-Irish agreement, you are deluded.

I feel I have been fair here. I think what you are suggesting for the Scottish Tories is deluded and wrong. It would lose them their seats in the east and gain them votes in seats where you weigh the Labour vote. It would also lose them many members in constituencies such as the one I was brought up in. Probably to the SNP. The Tories would also almost certainlyt be condemed by the Church of Scotland for such a move.

You are beyond sense and reason. You choose your course(in both your timelines hard-right) and bluster through it despite all the evidence to the contrary. There is little more that can be said. Don't worry, I wont be postng any mor in this thread as it would be akin to talking to a brick wall, and I wish to preserve my sanity.

Thatcher and the Conservative parties own research showed that the Anglo-Irish agreement cost them support among Scotlands Unionists.
But admit this to be true.
I would have thought the resignation of 1000 members alone on it's signing would have been a sign.

[cumbria]

I have to endorse what Fletcher has just said here and I must say that I find the accusation fo "left wing bias" against him to be excessive. Even if he has a left wing bias it does not means that his opinion has to be ignored for that reason. This is called critical thinking cumbria simply.

The Scottish Unionist Party is a joke party and nothing more. It is very naïve to assume that simply because the Anglo-Irish agreement is repealed, Orange lodge members will flock en masse to the Tory Party. Some of them especially the working class ones will want nothing to do with "the party who destroyed our pits and mills". Some will simply stop voting for one reason or the other.

In any case repealing a law for the sake of repealing it is not a wise move, especially in the case of Northern Ireland.

As for bringing Enoch on board, as much as I have some esteem for the man. He is too old by now and the idea of parachuting him back in Parliament is frankly laughable.

It isnt laughable at all.
He said he would re-join if Thatcher won and I would imagine most Conservative Associations would be desperate to get him.
I know 3 ex-chairman who definatly would have wanted him.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Seems weird that in both your TLs have Powell in government but in this one Thatcher and Powell get along.

Hope to see what happens next ITTL and ENF (Fun fact: The second I get an update I want another one.;););))

[cumbria]

In the words of one Orange Order member of the time.

"One of the many things the Tories fail to appreciate is that thousands of
Scottish Orangemen and women vote Conservative, not because of any
political or economic policy, but because they see that as representing the
sovereignty of the Queen and the unity of the United Kingdom."

Orange Political Party Support

Labour 17%
Conservatives 52%
Liberal Democrats 1%
S.N.P. 15%
Other 3%
None 13%
1990

Dislike for Labour Party beliefs and actions exists at
both national and local levels. For example, some Labour MPs’ support
for Catholic schools within the state system and “unorthodox” political
views on Northern Ireland (i.e., they support Irish “reunification”
and “Troops Out”) are constantly condemned in official Orange literature
in Scotland.

[thevaliant]

Elections were not won on the so called "centre" in 1970, 79, 83 or 87.
You need to leave your politics aside to look at history in a realistic manner.


I disagree. Every British election for the last thirty years has been won in the centre, and if it was NOT, it was because the main opposition was even more barking (and away from the centre) than the party that won.

2010 - Cameron tacks to the centre, and whilst not a win, is good enough to get rid of 'just spend' Labour.
2005 - Conservatives still tainted with the 1990's label of sleeze, and with Howard in charge (a right wing authoritarian) no chance of beating centrist Blair.
2001 - Basically the same as 2005, Hague had no chance, plus the Conservative brand toxic.
1997 - Labour wins easily in the centre. Conservative brand toxic, that's why they don't win (an interesting ATL would be where the British public looks beyond the sleeze and votes according to their feelings on the economy - Labour would struggle far more).
1992 - Labour still not trusted after the 1970s. Major moves left and Thatcher is gone. Small Conservative win.
1987 and 1983 - Yes, Conservatives off to the right, but Labour either WERE (1983) or were SEEN (1987) to be barking mad left wing militants.
1979 - Tired Labour government admittedly more centrist under Callaghan, but it couldn't control the Unions by this point. Like it or not, Labour were seen to be heading off to the far left and the Conservatives under Thatcher, though not trusted, had to be elected.

The centre ground is where it is, along with longevity of the party. The longer in power, the weaker it gets. Shuffling leaders helps (look at 1992 and the 'non' election of 2007).

Here we have:
Thatcher tacking right
Thatcher in power since May 1979 - That's TWELVE years
Labour brand starting to detoxify under Kinnock
Thatchers policies earlier have her HATED by sections of Britain (Scotland)
The Conservative party seen to be infighting - Heseltine (not exactly a lightweight) has challenged and been defeated but only just.

Thatcher is going down in 1991. Short of an introduction of a new Representation of the Peoples Act passing (the main clauses being the banning of all political opposition and making Thatcher Prime Minister for life) she cannot win.

There is a reason she was ousted in 1990. Because no one believed she could win in 1991 unless she performed several major U-turns on policy (mainly Poll Tax) and no one believed she would.

[cumbria]

Seems weird that in both your TLs have Powell in government but in this one Thatcher and Powell get along.

Hope to see what happens next ITTL and ENF (Fun fact: The second I get an update I want another one.;););))

The relationship was based on political belief.
Powell was not the friendly type.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Are you going to use the IRA mortar attack to secure Thatchers majority?

[thevaliant]

You are beyond sense and reason. You choose your course(in both your timelines hard-right) and bluster through it despite all the evidence to the contrary. There is little more that can be said. Don't worry, I wont be postng any mor in this thread as it would be akin to talking to a brick wall, and I wish to preserve my sanity.

I can only add to that with 'Hear hear'.

[cumbria]

I disagree. Every British election for the last thirty years has been won in the centre, and if it was NOT, it was because the main opposition was even more barking (and away from the centre) than the party that won.

2010 - Cameron tacks to the centre, and whilst not a win, is good enough to get rid of 'just spend' Labour.
2005 - Conservatives still tainted with the 1990's label of sleeze, and with Howard in charge (a right wing authoritarian) no chance of beating centrist Blair.
2001 - Basically the same as 2005, Hague had no chance, plus the Conservative brand toxic.
1997 - Labour wins easily in the centre. Conservative brand toxic, that's why they don't win (an interesting ATL would be where the British public looks beyond the sleeze and votes according to their feelings on the economy - Labour would struggle far more).
1992 - Labour still not trusted after the 1970s. Major moves left and Thatcher is gone. Small Conservative win.
1987 and 1983 - Yes, Conservatives off to the right, but Labour either WERE (1983) or were SEEN (1987) to be barking mad left wing militants.
1979 - Tired Labour government admittedly more centrist under Callaghan, but it couldn't control the Unions by this point. Like it or not, Labour were seen to be heading off to the far left and the Conservatives under Thatcher, though not trusted, had to be elected.

The centre ground is where it is, along with longevity of the party. The longer in power, the weaker it gets. Shuffling leaders helps (look at 1992 and the 'non' election of 2007).

Here we have:
Thatcher tacking right
Thatcher in power since May 1979 - That's TWELVE years
Labour brand starting to detoxify under Kinnock
Thatchers policies earlier have her HATED by sections of Britain (Scotland)
The Conservative party seen to be infighting - Heseltine (not exactly a lightweight) has challenged and been defeated but only just.

Thatcher is going down in 1991. Short of an introduction of a new Representation of the Peoples Act passing (the main clauses being the banning of all political opposition and making Thatcher Prime Minister for life) she cannot win.

There is a reason she was ousted in 1990. Because no one believed she could win in 1991 unless she performed several major U-turns on policy (mainly Poll Tax) and no one believed she would.

Your centre is not the same as other peoples centre.
Populism wins elections.
Right Wing Populism in this case.
1970, 79, 83 and 87 are prime examples of this.

Thatcher if she had stood again would still have had most the press on side, plus the Gulf War victory I cant see her losing.

[cumbria]

Are you going to use the IRA mortar attack to secure Thatchers majority?

Already happened in the tl.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Your centre is not the same as other peoples centre.
Populism wins elections.
Right Wing Populism in this case.
1970, 79, 83 and 87 are prime examples of this.

Thatcher if she had stood again would still have had most the press on side, plus the Gulf War victory I cant see her losing.

Ironically Iraq killed Blair's political career but it may save Thatcher's ITTL. Probably because she can get a victory unlike Blair.

[cumbria]

Ironically Iraq killed Blair's political career but it may save Thatcher's ITTL. Probably because she can get a victory unlike Blair.

Unlike the second Guld War $200 billion of contracts for re-construction have not been sorted out before the invasion bagan.
Thus regime change is the priority not staying to stabalise the country.

[thevaliant]

Your centre is not the same as other peoples centre.

On that, I agree that my centre is certainly not the same as your centre.

[The Viscount Cranleigh]

You are beyond sense and reason. You choose your course(in both your timelines hard-right) and bluster through it despite all the evidence to the contrary. There is little more that can be said. Don't worry, I wont be postng any mor in this thread as it would be akin to talking to a brick wall, and I wish to preserve my sanity.

I have to unfortunately agree. As alternate history, this is meaningless; it is not a plausible "might-have-been" so much as a "wouldn't-it-be-cool-if". That said, by all means continue writing it, if you enjoy doing so. It might not be a serious work of alternate history, but it's still a coherent work of fiction, however implausible. Enjoy it.

[cumbria]

I have to unfortunately agree. As alternate history, this is meaningless; it is not a plausible "might-have-been" so much as a "wouldn't-it-be-cool-if". That said, by all means continue writing it, if you enjoy doing so. It might not be a serious work of alternate history, but it's still a coherent work of fiction, however implausible. Enjoy it.

Most the things Thatcher is doing im against on a personal level.
All I put in is plausible, or it would not be in.
It is based on OTL beliefs of the people involved.

[cumbria]

Part 7


http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2008/06/05/thatcher1980.jpg

April 1991

April 1 – Neil Kinnock calls a vote of no confidence in the government.
Of Parliaments 647 MP’s (Was 650 but two recently died and Sinn Fein’s MP doesn’t attend Parliament) 236 Labour MP’s, 47 Liberal Democrats, 4 SNP, 3 Plaid Cymru and 3 SDLP MP’s vote against the government.
As do the majority of the independents and a small number of Conservatives.
Heseltine, Clarke and Major vote with the government as they do not want to be seen to have brought the government down.
The government survives by 17 votes 4 of which came from the Democratic Unionists and Popular Unionist.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/history/img/themes/society/politics/446x251/neil_kinnock.jpg


April 3 – American and British troops begin the removal of all of Iraq's chemical and biological weapons, all stocks of agents and components, and all research, development, support and manufacturing facilities for ballistic.
Margaret Thatcher announces the General election will be held on the first Thursday in June.

April 4 – William Kennedy Smith, a nephew of U.S. Senator Edward Kennedy, is identified as a suspect in an alleged Palm Beach, Florida sexual assault.

Social services in the Orkney Islands are criticised for their handling of more than 100 children who have returned to their families after being taken away over allegations of child abuse.

Labour retains the Neath seat in a by-election with new MP Peter Hain gaining more than half of the vote.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2006/11/PeterHain_228x238.jpg


April 5 – Former Senator John Tower and 22 others are killed in an airplane crash in Brunswick, Georgia, United States.

8 April - The Football Association announces plans for a new "super league" of 18 clubs to replace the Football League First Division as the highest division of English football. The move is attacked by smaller Football League clubs, who fear that they could go out of business if TV revenue was confined to the proposed super league.

April 9 – The Supreme Council of the Republic of Georgia declares independence from the Soviet Union.


http://www.mapsofworld.com/images/world-countries-flags/georgia-flag.gif


April 10 – A South Atlantic tropical cyclone develops in the Southern Hemisphere off the coast of Angola (the first of its kind to be documented by weather satellites).

April 14 – In the Netherlands, thieves steal 20 paintings worth $500 million from the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam. Less than an hour later they are found in an abandoned car near the museum.

April 17 – The Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 3,000 for the first time ever, at 3,004.46.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/Pictures/Sept05/130905galloway.jpg


Questions in the House.

Michael Heseltine Con: Why is the Prime Minister taking us on this disastrous course of wanting withdrawal from the EEC when she had previously signed the Single European act?

Thatcher: Though I had supported British membership in the EEC, I believed that the role of the organisation would be limited to ensuring free trade and effective competition, instead the EEC approach to governing is at odds with our views of smaller government and deregulatory trends.

Roy Hattersley Lab: Is the Prime Minister really going to do something as daft as pulling Britain out of the EEC?

As the member knows to his great displeasure we have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level, with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels

Ken Clarke Con: Why does the Prime Minister wish to isolate us everywhere by pulling out of the EEC?

Thatcher: Within the EEC we would be isolated from the world a world of wonderful trade opportunities for this nation.
This can not be allowed to happen, we need to set Britain free one more.

John Major: Why Prime Minister must we withdraw from the EEC when we can just seek to reform it from within?

Thatcher: The EEC is fundamentally unreformable, a classic utopian project, a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure.

George Galloway Lab: Why is the Prime Minister dragging the bile, hatred and bigotry of the Orange Order into Scottish political life?

Thatcher: I do not believe the feelings of sanctity, freedom and pride in the United Kingdom, its monarchy and its religious traditions constitutes anymore more than a fine example of Patriotism.
It is the member who shows the true bigotry we face in our society today, the bigotry of the Socialism and Liberalism.

http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/jpg/Gulf-war-3.jpg


April 18 – 20 US Marines are killed in a terrorist explosion in Iraq.
Despite the continuing recession, the Tories are still top of the opinion polls as the latest MORI poll puts them three points ahead of Labour.

19 April - George Carey enthroned as Archbishop of Canterbury.

April 22 – The Social Democratic Party of Albania is founded.

April 29 – A tropical cyclone hits Bangladesh, killing an estimated 138,000 people.

6 British soldiers have been killed since Iraq officially surrendered.

Opinion Polls at the end of the month –

Con – 40%
Lab – 37%
Lib – 20%
Oth - 3%

http://c.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000.CT4gcW5Jyg/s/500/YOUNG-CONSERVATIVES-TORY-PARTY-CONFERENCE-1980S-BRITAIN-A276-0010.jpg

[Blackadder mk 2]

Huh with no Europe or Iraq war 2 of my 3 main problems with Blair are gone with only immigration left.

[RogueBeaver]

The immigration system was sound under the Tories from my understanding. Economic/skills-based, using the points system. Not so much "huddled masses" as "huddled entrepreneurs, skilled workers, foreign scholarship students of ABC1 background" as it should be.

[Blackadder mk 2]

The immigration system was sound under the Tories from my understanding. Economic/skills-based, using the points system. Not so much "huddled masses" as "huddled entrepreneurs, skilled workers, foreign scholarship students of ABC1 background" as it should be.

That's one of many reason I want ASB's to make you Britain's Prime Minister.

Although I feel like I'm one of the only people who believe this could happen.

[cumbria]

The immigration system was sound under the Tories from my understanding. Economic/skills-based, using the points system. Not so much "huddled masses" as "huddled entrepreneurs, skilled workers, foreign scholarship students of ABC1 background" as it should be.

Thatcher let in over a million immigrants mainly unskilled I believe.
Ill check the exact figures when I get chance.

[Meadow]

That's one of many reason I want ASB's to make you Britain's Prime Minister.

Although I feel like I'm one of the only people who believe this could happen.

I'd be one of the first to tear down the gates of Downing Street and send the Canadian invader back where he belonged.

I'd pay a great deal to have RogueBeaver as a tutor at University, but would pay just as much to keep him the hell away from political offices that affect me.

[cumbria]

Part 8

http://www.ssplprints.com/lowres/43/main/45/124448.jpg

May 1991

1 May – A speech by Margaret Thatcher at a Monday Club dinner hits the headlines in Britain.

http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-snc4/hs172.ash2/41786_156178471062218_1374_n.jpg

In the speech she says –

Let us look at the figures on immigration as we know them.
Last year we let in around 200,000 immigrants, and I am the first to admit it is not easy to get clear figures from the Home Office about immigration.
We are looking at correcting this problem so we will know exactly how many people are coming and going from this country.
Now it is said that by the end of the century they will be four million people of the new Commonwealth or Pakistan in our nation.
This awful lot and which makes people see a great threat to the British character A British character that has done so much for the world.
People are scared that this character ill be changed forever.
So, if you want good race relations we must sort this problem one and for all.
200,000 people a year coming to this country is equivalent to establishing a new city in the UK every year.
We must now look to bringing immigration to an end except, of course, for compassionate cases. Therefore, we have got to look at the numbers who have a right to come in.
Then we will look to what makes a compassionate case.
But that aside we shall do our best to end further immigration to Britain.

2 May – Conservative poll ratings reach 45% after Thatcher’s immigration announcements.

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/LBIWS4O6HyQ/0.jpg

3 May - The BBC asks Thatcher to respond to the comments she has made and she does so in a press announcement.
Thatcher: Immigration is at far too high a level in Britain today.
The cost to the taxpayer is quite high.
Thus we need to bring in some very strict anti-immigration criteria indeed.
It must be very much less than the near 200,000 a year we have coming to Britain today.
But you cannot decide the figure we will allow in until we know those who at present have a right to come in.
But what is quite clear is that we cannot go on taking in that number.
You see, my great fear is if we continue to let that rate of people in we will destroy race relations in this country.
Every one who is here must be treated equally under the law and that, I think, is why quite a lot of them too are fearful that their position might be put in jeopardy or people might be hostile to them unless we cut down the incoming numbers.
The ones who are here are fine and they must be treated equally.

5 May - Hopes for a quick end to the recession are boosted by CBI predictions that a sharp recovery in business profits will begin shortly.

http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/m4/mar2009/6/1/image-7-for-manchester-united-shirts-through-the-years-gallery-324385701.jpg

15 May - Manchester United make a winning return to European competitions for English clubs after five years of suspension due to the Heysel disaster, by defeating FC Barcelona of Spain 2-1 in the European Cup Winners' Cup final in Rotterdam. Mark Hughes scores both of United's goals as they secure their first European trophy since winning the European Cup in 1968.

15 May - Édith Cresson becomes France's first female premier.

16 May - Unemployment is now at 2,175,000 - the highest for well over two years.

Queen Elizabeth II becomes the first British monarch to address the United States Congress.

17 May - The Conservatives retain the Monmouth seat in Wales.
Roger Evans wins with a majority of 1,987.

18 May
Helen Sharman becomes the first Briton in space.

http://static3.slamxhype.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/paul-gascoigne-1.jpg

Paul Gascoigne suffers cruciate knee ligament damage in Tottenham Hotspur's 2-1 FA Cup final victory over Nottingham Forest, which puts his proposed transfer to Italian side Lazio on hold, and is expected to rule him out for up to a year.

In Scotland, the Scottish Cup final sees Motherwell triumph 4-3 over Dundee United.

Somaliland withdraws from Somalia.

21 May - South Wales, one of the regions hardest hit by unemployment, receives a boost when the go-ahead is given for Japanese electrical company Sony to build a new factory in Bridgend that will create 1,400 jobs when it opens in 1993.

In Sriperumbudur, India, former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi is assassinated.

Mengistu Haile Mariam, president of the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, flees Ethiopia, effectively bringing the Ethiopian Civil War to an end.

22 May - Nearly six months after the breakthrough in the Channel Tunnel service tunnel, the breakthrough in the North rail tunnel is achieved. On the same day, road links to the British terminal are improved when the final section of the M20 motorway is opened between Maidstone and Ashford, meaning that the Chunnel's unbroken motorway link with London has already been completed an estimated three years before the first trains move between Britain and France.

27 May - Eric Heffer, Labour MP for Liverpool Walton, dies after an 18-month battle against cancer.

http://www.rip-off.co.uk/images/polltax.jpg

29 May - The Poll Tax saga which has plagued Britain for the last 14 months results in the latest of several objectors being jailed. Martin Blatchford, a disabled
31-year-old father-of-three from Dudley in the West Midlands, is sentenced to 14 days in prison.

http://www.afed.org.uk/ace/polltax_files/image010.jpg

Economists warn that the economy is still in an "exceptionally steep" recession and that it could be another year before the first real signs of recovery become visible.

30 May - Opinion polls at the end of the month -

Con – 42%
Lab – 37%
Lib – 19%
Oth – 2%

http://cache3.asset-cache.net/xc/89873753.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF878921CC759DF4EBAC47D03EDAEADDE7A11AA1 07CAF47AFBCC7F6727B9E4A63820FB9E

[Blackadder mk 2]

How's Labour going to respond to Thatcher's new immigration plan?

Will this change how New Labour turns out when they have to try and sell to the public more immigration?

This may cause more Devolution as Scotland will view the Union as only caring about England.

Great update and nice to see that this TL also gets attention.:D:D:D

[Cymraeg]

Bumpity bump - I wanna see Thatcher's plans die in the horrible train wreck that now inevitably lies ahead of her...

[cumbria]

With the election near ill try and do an update over the next few days.

[Blackadder mk 2]

Cumbria where are ye?

[cumbria]

Cumbria where are ye?

Since the phone cab has been repaired ive still been having internet problems however it seems ok this morning.
Ill see if I can do an update.

[Abe Lincoln1865]

Will Bush win reelection in 92?

[cumbria]

Part 9

http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00110/thatcher_hultonarch_110601s.jpg

June 1991

The June 1991 election produces one of the highest turnouts in years at 81%.
The majority of the press were all supporting Thatcher’s Conservatives with constant attacks by them on the Labour party in the run up to the election.
On Election Day, Rupert Murdoch controlled The Sun newspaper runs a front page headline which urges "the last person to leave Britain" to "turn out the lights" if Labour win the election and it features an overweight woman on Page 3 under the headline, "Here's How Page 3 Will Look Under Kinnock!"

http://www.bl.uk/learning/images/front%20page/If%20Kinnick%20Wins-st.jpg

Result

Conservatives 41.7% of the vote and 345 seats.
Labour 33.9% 265 seats
Liberal 19.8% 26 seats
SNP 3 seats
SDLP 4
Plaid 4
DUP 3
UPU 1

The results continued the Conservatives' decline in Northern England with Labour regaining many seats they had not held since 1979 however in certain areas were concern for immigration appears a particular concern the Conservatives held on..
The Conservatives also began to lose support in the Midlands but again in areas of immigrant concern unexpected seats were held.
The Conservatives saw an increase in their vote in Scotland, from 1987 in particular in Western Scotland.
Its vote in Scotland went from 24% in 1987 to 26.8% surprisingly however because of a dip in the vote in a few seats in Eastern Scotland they lost a seat.
Labour and Plaid Cymru strengthened in Wales with Conservative support declining there.
However, in the South East, South West, London and Eastern England the Conservative vote held up leading to few losses there with many considering Basildon to be indicative of a nouveau riche working class element referred to as Essex Man voting strongly Conservative.

The Sun famously runs a front page headline the next day - It's The Sun Wot Won It - to claim that it had won the election for the Conservatives.

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTRUS3QRBtxjneKl6rrSanQysFEV9WBG YrYzh9x6Jcxd_vifmMb

Observers blamed the decline in support for the Labour Party's on its triumphalist "Sheffield Rally", an enthusiastic American-style political convention at the Sheffield Arena. However most analysts and major participants in the campaign believe it actually had little effect, with the event only receiving widespread attention after the election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/southyorkshire/content/images/2009/02/11/kinnock_470_470x250.jpg

It was the second General Election defeat under Leader Neil Kinnock and Deputy Leader Roy Hattersley and both resign soon after the election.

June - Kia, the Korean carmaker, begins importing cars to the United Kingdom for the first time; initially it will only import the Pride (a rebadged version of the Japanese Mazda 121), but at least one further model is expected to join it by 1994.

3 June - The British Army kill three IRA gunmen in Northern Ireland.

6 June - Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock condemns Margaret Thatcher for the direction she is leading Britain in his final press interview.

Neil Kinnock: I wish to take you back to a speech I made some years ago which today is now more relevant than ever.
In Margaret Thatcher’s Britain I warn you that you will have pain–when healing and relief depend upon payment.
I warn you that you will have ignorance–when talents are untended and wits are wasted, when learning is a privilege and not a right.
I warn you that you will have poverty–when pensions slip and benefits are whittled away by a government that won’t pay in an economy that can’t pay.
I warn you that you will be cold–when fuel charges are used as a tax system that the rich don’t notice and the poor can’t afford.
I warn you that you must not expect work–when many cannot spend, more will not be able to earn. When they don’t earn, they don’t spend. When they don’t spend, work dies.
I warn you not to go into the streets alone after dark or into the streets in large crowds of protest in the light.
I warn you that you will be quiet–when the curfew of fear and the gibbet of unemployment make you obedient.
I warn you that you will have defence of a sort–with a risk and at a price that passes all understanding.
I warn you that you will be home-bound–when fares and transport bills kill leisure and lock you up.
I warn you that you will borrow less–when credit, loans, mortgages and easy payments are refused to people on your melting income.
In Margaret Thatcher’s Britain –
- I warn you not to be ordinary
- I warn you not to be young
- I warn you not to fall ill
- I warn you not to get old.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT86mqkOtze4tFETYPaQdVGspxz7pDoT 4l_yzcKZxy7W2_CEciS

10 June - The National Gallery (London) opens its new Sainsbury Wing to the public.

June 12 – Boris Yeltsin is elected President of Russia, the largest and most populous of the 15 Soviet republics.

13 June - Unemployment is reported to have risen to 2,250,000, but it is the lowest monthly rise reported this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=ieQlZEvAG1ts

June 15 – In the Philippines, Mount Pinatubo erupts in what will be the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century; the final death toll tops 800.

June 17 – Apartheid: The South African Parliament repeals the Population Registration Act, which had required racial classification of all South Africans at birth.

19 June - Home Secretary Norman Tebbit announces a huge prison building programme.

http://cache4.asset-cache.net/xc/72367206.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=E41C9FE5C4AA0A143917923364F7ADC6327D01F37799CF57 AC011C274CF7E99FB01E70F2B3269972

June 23 – Mesut Yılmaz, of ANAP forms the new government of Turkey (48th government)
June 23 – The first Sonic the Hedgehog game published by Sega. It's also the starting point of the Sonic the Hedgehog series ever since.

June 23–28 – Iraq crisis: After a rising number of deaths of US and British servive men in Iraq they are calls for U.N. troops to be sent in to assist the Iraqi army and police.
Thatcher tells the house: British troops will stay in Iraq until democracy is restored to the country .

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcStC6g25YbXXMsJ0y_iG_fAFPdJ6e_f2 mrq3GJ0_R4OHJaWsG4RpA

25 June - Nissan, the Japanese carmaker with a plant at Sunderland, starts "price wars" by reducing the cost of its cars in order to boost flagging sales brought on by the recession.

June 25 – Collapse of Yugoslavia: Croatia and Slovenia declare their independence from Yugoslavia.

28 June

The final breakthrough in the Channel Tunnel is achieved when the last section of clay in the South rail tunnel is bored away.

June 28 – COMECON dissolved.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01158/portal-graphics-20_1158510a.jpg

[cumbria]

Will Bush win reelection in 92?

Thatcher winning again wont have much impact on Bush's chances.

[Abe Lincoln1865]

At least his sons political future is assured

[Blackadder mk 2]

I am now sure by 2010 Scotland will be independent ITTL. Thatcher has been returned by in Scottish eyes English selfishness i.e. sacrificing Scottish and Welsh industry so pockets can get slightly bigger.

So Dubya has most of his legacy saved since the main problem with him with the general public was with Iraq and how it became a quagmire. With Thatcher having British troops help build a government maybe Iraq could be a copy and paste of Thatcher's ideals.

I wonder who will replace Maggie in 1995 when she retires? PM Tebbit? (There would no survivors)

I'm guessing your not a fan of the EU then with both of your works having Britain being free of them.

[Cymraeg]

Unemployment is that high, the turnout is that high and still Maggie gets a majority of about 50??? With the fallout over Europe still going on? Sorry, Cumbria, you're skirting the edges of ASB territory here. :mad:

[cumbria]

Unemployment is that high, the turnout is that high and still Maggie gets a majority of about 50??? With the fallout over Europe still going on? Sorry, Cumbria, you're skirting the edges of ASB territory here. :mad:

Unemployment was even higher when Major won by a large margin of the vote in 1992 and unemployment was higher still when Thatcher won in 83.
I dont see how higher turnout would mean Maggie does worse.
Being against the EEC with mass press support would be one of the reasons Thatcher does well.

[cumbria]

I am now sure by 2010 Scotland will be independent ITTL. Thatcher has been returned by in Scottish eyes English selfishness i.e. sacrificing Scottish and Welsh industry so pockets can get slightly bigger.

So Dubya has most of his legacy saved since the main problem with him with the general public was with Iraq and how it became a quagmire. With Thatcher having British troops help build a government maybe Iraq could be a copy and paste of Thatcher's ideals.

I wonder who will replace Maggie in 1995 when she retires? PM Tebbit? (There would no survivors)

I'm guessing your not a fan of the EU then with both of your works having Britain being free of them.

In both my works Enoch and Thatcher's opposition to the EU is based in their actual statements.
Thatcher stated in the early 1990's that she wanted NAFTA (which is coming soon in the timeline) to become the Atlantic Free Trade Area with the UK joining Canada, Mexico and the USA.
Opposition to the EU is not just from the Right.
In a Michael Foot timeline which I will get to right eventually he will be pulling Britain out of the EEC too.

[Cymraeg]

Unemployment was even higher when Major won by a large margin of the vote in 1992 and unemployment was higher still when Thatcher won in 83.
I dont see how higher turnout would mean Maggie does worse.
Being against the EEC with mass press support would be one of the reasons Thatcher does well.

Yes, but one of the reasons why Major won was that he was enjoying a poll bounce caused by the fact that he wasn't Thatcher. She was fantastically unpopular at the time and also increasingly autocratic - she just wouldn't listen to advice until it was too late. Her anti-EEC stance just wasn't that popular either - Major reversed most of it.
As for mass press support, no, sorry. My father worked for the Financial Times at the time and he attended editorial meetings in which FT staff described Thatcher's anti-EEC policies using language that can best be described as contemptuous. The FT wouldn't have supported her, especially if she'd gone down this ultra anti-EEC route and then deselected the pro-European Tories. The Mirror wouldn't have, nor the Guardian nor the Independent. The Times would have been horrified and the Express would have been sniffy. The Sun would have pandered to the lowest common denominater as usual. The Telegraph was edited by Max Hastings at the time, who viewed Thatcher with increasing worry and would have viewed her policies here as being totally insane. That just leaves the Mail (as usual).
As for 1983 - at the time Labour was busy slitting its own throat and the Alliance was still having teething problems. I'd have been amazed if Thatcher hadn't won by a lot given the fact that Foot was the worst leader of Labour since Ramsay MacDonald.
I'm very sorry, but I just think that your thread has jumped the shark. :o

[cumbria]

Yes, but one of the reasons why Major won was that he was enjoying a poll bounce caused by the fact that he wasn't Thatcher. She was fantastically unpopular at the time and also increasingly autocratic - she just wouldn't listen to advice until it was too late.


Her poll rating was better than it was in the run up to the 1987 election before she resigned.
The Labour party was hardly popular either.
Every day in the press there was stries of the looney left.


Her anti-EEC stance just wasn't that popular either - Major reversed most of it.


59% of the British public polled for The Independent by Number Market Research agreed with Thatcher's opposition to monetary union
A Telephone Surveys poll for the Sunday Express in September 1990, during the Gulf crisis, found that 65% of voters preferred Thatcher as a crisis leader to Kinnock, who polled 20%.
Major got a big Gulf War bounce.
Thatcher would have got an even bigger one.
Add to this the populist policies on immigration, N Ireland, right wing social values and the EEC and you will get a majority.
Even with a slightly smaller vote than Major got.



As for mass press support, no, sorry. My father worked for the Financial Times at the time and he attended editorial meetings in which FT staff described Thatcher's anti-EEC policies using language that can best be described as contemptuous. The FT wouldn't have supported her, especially if she'd gone down this ultra anti-EEC route and then deselected the pro-European Tories. The Mirror wouldn't have, nor the Guardian nor the Independent. The Times would have been horrified and the Express would have been sniffy. The Sun would have pandered to the lowest common denominater as usual. The Telegraph was edited by Max Hastings at the time, who viewed Thatcher with increasing worry and would have viewed her policies here as being totally insane. That just leaves the Mail (as usual).


The Times as owned by Murdoch would back Thatcher as would the Sun.
"The Sun would have pandered to the lowest common denominater as usual" dont let your political feeling get in the way of possible and likely reality.
The Express, Star, Sport, Mail and Telegraph would have all backed Thatcher.
That is the vast majority of
Papers of the masses.
Only the Mirror comes close to this back then as a mass readership paper of the left.

[cumbria]

Yes, but one of the reasons why Major won was that he was enjoying a poll bounce caused by the fact that he wasn't Thatcher. She was fantastically unpopular at the time and also increasingly autocratic - she just wouldn't listen to advice until it was too late. Her anti-EEC stance just wasn't that popular either - Major reversed most of it.
As for mass press support, no, sorry. My father worked for the Financial Times at the time and he attended editorial meetings in which FT staff described Thatcher's anti-EEC policies using language that can best be described as contemptuous. The FT wouldn't have supported her, especially if she'd gone down this ultra anti-EEC route and then deselected the pro-European Tories. The Mirror wouldn't have, nor the Guardian nor the Independent. The Times would have been horrified and the Express would have been sniffy. The Sun would have pandered to the lowest common denominater as usual. The Telegraph was edited by Max Hastings at the time, who viewed Thatcher with increasing worry and would have viewed her policies here as being totally insane. That just leaves the Mail (as usual).
As for 1983 - at the time Labour was busy slitting its own throat and the Alliance was still having teething problems. I'd have been amazed if Thatcher hadn't won by a lot given the fact that Foot was the worst leader of Labour since Ramsay MacDonald.
I'm very sorry, but I just think that your thread has jumped the shark. :o

Do you not think the poll bounce would have come as it did for the Conservatives in 87 and 92 anyway?

[Cymraeg]

Her poll rating was better than it was in the run up to the 1987 election before she resigned.
The Labour party was hardly popular either.
Every day in the press there was stries of the looney left.



59% of the British public polled for The Independent by Number Market Research agreed with Thatcher's opposition to monetary union
A Telephone Surveys poll for the Sunday Express in September 1990, during the Gulf crisis, found that 65% of voters preferred Thatcher as a crisis leader to Kinnock, who polled 20%.
Major got a big Gulf War bounce.
Thatcher would have got an even bigger one.
Add to this the populist policies on immigration, N Ireland, right wing social values and the EEC and you will get a majority.
Even with a slightly smaller vote than Major got.



The Times as owned by Murdoch would back Thatcher as would the Sun.
"The Sun would have pandered to the lowest common denominater as usual" dont let your political feeling get in the way of possible and likely reality.
The Express, Star, Sport, Mail and Telegraph would have all backed Thatcher.
That is the vast majority of
Papers of the masses.
Only the Mirror comes close to this back then as a mass readership paper of the left.

The Sport???? If the Sport backed Maggie then there's a good chance that they would also have backed Ming the Merciless! The Sport is the paper of the undressed ladies with impressive attributes and the headlines like "WW2 bomber found on the moon!"
I'm sorry, but I still think that your reasoning is faulty. Maggie seems to have split the Tories with no repercussions at all. That's just not going to be realistic. The Times may be owned by Murdoch, but it's always been more politically mature than the Sun and it would not have supported Maggie's actions over Europe. Hastings would have agonised over it but as a friend of Hurd, Clarke and Heseltine he would have written thundering editorials damning Thatcher's conduct.
As for the polling data, I think you're reading a little too much into it. Support for Europe as a whole remained fairly high, even though the Single Currency was controversial. Having Thatcher pull the UK out of Europe completely would have been seen as the final and overwhelming proof that Thatcher had gone barking mad. There would have been massive resistance in the Cabinet and there would have been resignations that would have inflicted fatal political damage, causing a challenge to her leadership. Add on the recession and her handling of the NHS and you have bad poll numbers and a defeat at the election!
Finally the bit about the looney left things in the papers - by 1990 these were starting to ebb as Labour had finally put its house in order. Militant was dead.

[cumbria]

The Sport???? If the Sport backed Maggie then there's a good chance that they would also have backed Ming the Merciless! The Sport is the paper of the undressed ladies with impressive attributes and the headlines like "WW2 bomber found on the moon!"

Why ignore the rest of the papers I mentioned?

I'm sorry, but I still think that your reasoning is faulty. Maggie seems to have split the Tories with no repercussions at all. That's just not going to be realistic.

They have been senior party members resign or be removed from the cabinet and many defections to the liberals.
Plus a host of deselections.

The Times may be owned by Murdoch, but it's always been more politically mature than the Sun and it would not have supported Maggie's actions over Europe. Hastings would have agonised over it but as a friend of Hurd, Clarke and Heseltine he would have written thundering editorials damning Thatcher's conduct.

You have a very naive view of how things operate.
Hastings would do as his boss tells him as all Murdochs newspaper men do.

As for the polling data, I think you're reading a little too much into it. Support for Europe as a whole remained fairly high, even though the Single Currency was controversial. Having Thatcher pull the UK out of Europe completely would have been seen as the final and overwhelming proof that Thatcher had gone barking mad.

I doubt the British population would see political independence as "Thatcher going barking mad" and with most the press onside as well as the Prime Minister opinion would very quickly turn to independence from the EEC.

There would have been massive resistance in the Cabinet and there would have been resignations that would have inflicted fatal political damage, causing a challenge to her leadership. Add on the recession and her handling of the NHS and you have bad poll numbers and a defeat at the election!

They has been resistence read the time line.
Poll numbers are also effected by the populist stances on the EEC, Immigration, Political Correctness, law and order, immigration, the gulf war etc.
All populist weapons Major lacked and he still won.

Finally the bit about the looney left things in the papers - by 1990 these were starting to ebb as Labour had finally put its house in order. Militant was dead.

Wasnt just Militant that was classed as the looney left but people like Livingstone and Bluncket and a host in inner city socialist councils with crazy politically correct ideas that appeared in the press almost daily back then.