1901

[Underboss_3]

I'm almost finished reading 1901 by Robert Conroy. For those of you who don't know, the book involves the German invasion of Long Island in 1901 in an effort by the Kaiser to force the US to give Puerto Rico and a few other small islands won in the Spanish-American war to Germany. I was thinking about the premise, and wondered what the timeline of the 20th Century would be like with a Germany weakened by war in the early 1900's. Probably no WWI, and therefore, no embittered Adolph Hitler to start WWII. Does anyone who's read the book have any idea about what an alternate 20th Century would be like? Would Russia still fall to the Communists with no WWI? Would that mean Stalin would try to take Europe like Hitler did? Tell me what you think?

[Chris Oakley]

There still might have been two world wars--just fought against different enemies.I can definitely see Stalin trying to take over all of Europe the way Hitler did in OTL.

[David Howery]

This was one of the first few AH books I bought, but it didn't seem to get wide release... apparently, with the surge in AH interest, it has been rereleased (as a paperback?). I loved the story, and it apparently has a basis in fact, as there was a short war scare after the SAW. The end of the book seems to imply that a sort-of 3rd Reich is going to arise under that business man who took over the government (he says that he feels inclined to blame the Jews for Germany's losses). The US is going to be taking a leading role in the world a lot earlier... they'll have a bigger standing army and navy, and are tying themselves close to Britain (who played a crucial role in helping the US). No isolationism here. WIth Germany's imperial ambitions sidetracked, but no crippling WW1 war losses inflicted, it's hard to see that anything like the Nazis will arise and come to dominate the country so much...

[zoomar]

I hadn't heard of this book and sounds intersting....but...poor Germany, why are they almost always the "bad guys"

[David S Poepoe]

I read this book when it first came out and have since then considered it a fairly lukewarm AH novel. Considering what I've read, in regards to relations between the Great Powers before 1914, I think one would most likely see a Great War breakout before 1910 - provided theres no Russo-Japanese War.

Somethings I consider:

1. The adoption of the Dreadnought type battleship about 3-4 years earlier.
2. The French (and Russians) will use the oppurtunity of Germany's defeat by the United States to make territorial demands upon Germany. The new government in Berlin will be force to agree to any terms - and I suspect the French won't hesitate to humiliate them.
3. The French and Russians will become the Continental Powers to deal with. Its likely that the German-Austro-Hungarian Alliance will continue. If not Austro-Hungary will be dismantled by the Russians at the request of the Serbs.
4. With Germany removed as a power do the French really continue to seek after the British as allies. With Germany defeated the Royal Navy is faced with the combined Franco-Russian navies in the eventuality of war.

The post-1901 balance of power has been switched back to that of pre-1812 Europe, with Britain likely to again be isolated. What is possible to consider, considering that Germany may remain isolated for a few years, would be a Anglo-American-Austro-Hungarian alliance.

[wkwillis]

Consider the precedent of Napoleon III's attack on Mexico. The French were forced to back down by the Americans. Several years later they were still so self confident that they attacked Germany and got their head handed to them in several battles.
Germany would have lost most of their navy in the 1901 war. They would have lost a trivial part of their army. It would not weaken them militarily, except psychologically perhaps. If they had taken the money they spent on their navy after 1901 and spent it on their army, the war in 1914 would have been even more lopsided. They spent quite a bit on their navy in those 13 years, so much that they had to borrow huge sums of money from the British to pay for it.
I read the book. It starts out not very well written, but gets better. It's got a sort of Romance novel feel to it in places.

[Chris Oakley]

This was one of the first few AH books I bought, but it didn't seem to get wide release...

Yeah,I just don't get that.

[Pax Britannia]

This was one of the first few AH books I bought, but it didn't seem to get wide release... apparently, with the surge in AH interest, it has been rereleased (as a paperback?). I loved the story, and it apparently has a basis in fact, as there was a short war scare after the SAW. The end of the book seems to imply that a sort-of 3rd Reich is going to arise under that business man who took over the government (he says that he feels inclined to blame the Jews for Germany's losses). The US is going to be taking a leading role in the world a lot earlier... they'll have a bigger standing army and navy, and are tying themselves close to Britain (who played a crucial role in helping the US). No isolationism here. WIth Germany's imperial ambitions sidetracked, but no crippling WW1 war losses inflicted, it's hard to see that anything like the Nazis will arise and come to dominate the country so much...

I've never read the book. How does Britain help the USA? and how does America beat Germany?

[David Howery]

Britain supplies America with loads of modern rifles and ammo. She also allows US warships a safe haven in Canadian waters. Interestingly, Britain is affected by the war; due to increased tensions, the Brits cease all activities in the Boer war and bring all the troops home to Britain.


SPOILER:

essentially, America wins by first smashing Germany's navy in a couple of epic battles, so their troops ashore can't be supplied. The Germans then have to risk all in one major attack, which fails. Out of supply, they are forced to surrender. Of course, before this happens, the Germans kick butt and take names for most of the book....

[NHBL]

Naval--the Germans have lost lost of their fleet, but this will have minimal long term material results, it's probably going to be obsolete soon enough. The new leadership seems likely to focus on the land side of things--which will remove Britain's greatest concern with Germany.
The navy is discredited, with much of its experianced crews at the bottom of the Atlantic, and its morale must likely broken
The USA has more practical experinace with modern naval warfarew than anyone else does--and a Congress willing to vote for a strong defence. With the lessons of the battles off New York, I'd expect the first dreadnought type ships to be ordered within a year,,and without the displacement limits that a stingy Congress put on the USA in OTL, allowing for a better vessel.
Great Britian probably follows shortly, and the dreadnoughts start to show up worldwide.
Germany builds a few--mainly to show she's still a great power--but not the massive building program of OTL.

Army
The US army and the German army will be looking for ways to deal with machine guns in fixed emplacements. The US suffered worse in its assault on the German fortifications, and will be looking for a way to deal with that. In addition, the US army is now open to innovations--I expect tanks before too long.
Nothing makes an army look at itself like a defeat--but will the German army see it that way, or as a disaster created by the navy? This will be critical in seeing what happens next. In the book, the soldiers were blaming the navy for a lot of what happened.
Look for big land based artillery to become popular, since it was used to good effect around New York.

Marines:
The US Marines got some practical experinace in amphibious assaults. Theuy worked, but I'd expect them to work on refineing the tactics. The World War II landing craft is not technically advanced, it could be built in 1912 if someone sees a need, and designs it.

Politics:
I'd expect that Germany is paying reparations to the USA for the destruction of Brooklyn, or (more likely)had to give up the Pacific islands and Tsingtao. The US could take them easily, so the new governemnt would probably trade them away.
This makes Japan uneasy--the US is coming in force to the Pacific--bases at Cavite, and new islands to replace the newly independent Phillipines. I'd bet they will be fortified. Japan is also seeing that Britian no longer needs Japan to balance the High Seas Fleet-and is on very good terms with the USA. If I were Japanese, I'd be getting worried.
Britain no longer has to worry about Europe for a few years, and the Anglo-American alliance will make anyine thinking of starting trouble think. After all, the USA beat the invincible German Army--what else can it do? No one will leave the US out of its plans in the future--and when they add up the production capacity of the US, they will get worried.

Just a few rough thoughs

[Justin Green]

America will get all of Samoa. Would this mean Samoa would wind up like Guam Otl?

[Grey Wolf]

America will get all of Samoa. Would this mean Samoa would wind up like Guam Otl?

Did Guam ever have a king ? I really don't know much about it other than that it was ceded by Spain to the USA

Samoa probably goes like Hawaii, with the royals relegated to just a richer or landowner family that everyone forgets about. Sadly, no renewed Kingdom of Samoa after colonialism like in OTL

Grey Wolf

[David S Poepoe]

Did Guam ever have a king ? I really don't know much about it other than that it was ceded by Spain to the USA

Samoa probably goes like Hawaii, with the royals relegated to just a richer or landowner family that everyone forgets about. Sadly, no renewed Kingdom of Samoa after colonialism like in OTL

Grey Wolf

If Guan did have a King, in the western sense of the word, it was entirely pre-Spanish. There was no real Kingdom of Samoa since it was never unified under one paramount chief, like Hawaii under Kamehameha. Both the American and German, later Australian/New Zealand, occupations of Samoa have scrubbed the ideas of establishing a kingdom in Samoa. However, the same can not be said, to a degree, in Hawaii. One of the unfortunate things about Samoa is that it really has nothing to offer and its way out of the way in the South Pacific.

[Grey Wolf]

If Guan did have a King, in the western sense of the word, it was entirely pre-Spanish. There was no real Kingdom of Samoa since it was never unified under one paramount chief, like Hawaii under Kamehameha. Both the American and German, later Australian/New Zealand, occupations of Samoa have scrubbed the ideas of establishing a kingdom in Samoa. However, the same can not be said, to a degree, in Hawaii. One of the unfortunate things about Samoa is that it really has nothing to offer and its way out of the way in the South Pacific.

Hmm, I was under the impression that Samoa had a king, see :-
http://pub57.ezboard.com/fsargonsstrongholdfrm30.showMessage?topicID=2.topi c&index=1

Of course, this is WESTERN Samoa because the other part is still, I assume, American ?

Grey Wolf

[Grey Wolf]

'1901' is an interesting book, though I think the author has a somewhat naiive view of international politics and the power of the Kaiser - for example, look at Bjorkoe, that proves that if the Kaiser unilaterally wants to do something unwise his advisors etc will talk him out of it. Of course, if they HAD in the book then there would have been no book, lol :)

I am continually brought to wonder what the states of things were in 1901 - armoured cars, airships etc ? The book implies that the latter are already in use in some armies of the world, and that the US has airships - are these inflatable or frame-worked ?

But my greatest wonder is where on Earth all the cruisers come from ! I think that the author must be counting sloops (e.g Geier etc) as light cruisers for the Germans, though what he is using for the Americans' I don't know. This is especially so since for the big naval battle the author has to admit that 3 of what he previously called battleships were actually cruisers equivalent to capital ships. This is acceptable, just see the Japanese against the Russians 1904-05 and the Asama etc, but it does reduce the number of cruisers that can be counted in their own right.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[Pax Britannia]

I think the British should of enterd the war when Germany started to lose the major land battles. A British blockade of Germany coupled with the German navy being lost against the USN would of really finished Germany off. And then Britain could claim her African territories!!

Does the book mention what happens to Germanies colonies?

[Melvin Loh]

1901 sounds like a real interesting book, although regrettably I have never encountered it myself at all. The plot's baseline IMHO seems somewhat reflective of reality in terms of how Germany was OTL involved in the 1906 (?) and 1911 Moroccan crises with France, where IIRC the Kaiser was willing to go to war with the French over Morocco's territorial sovereignty.

Is there any description at all of what role the Buffalo soldiers play in the defeat of Imperial Germany ? Do the Americans in this ATL fare better than they did against the Spaniards OTL ?

[David Howery]

yes, the buffalo soldiers are a prominent part of the US's counterattack, being one of the few experienced troops in the US army. They end up in a scratch brigade under command of the book's US hero, Mahan.
I think the SAW went the same as in OTL. Against Germany, we seriously get our butts kicked at first, until Roosevelt takes over and prepares for a long term war. The Germans are seriously hampered by lack of supplies and prove unable to advance much past NYC...

[Pax Britannia]

i'm nearing the ned of the book. I hope the author wrtes a sequel based on the first world war. Maybe an Anglo-American alliance facing off against Germany?

[Grey Wolf]

i'm nearing the ned of the book. I hope the author wrtes a sequel based on the first world war. Maybe an Anglo-American alliance facing off against Germany?

Well, why do you think there will be anything analogous to the First World War ?

At the end of the book the following are different from OTL :-

1. Independent Philippines within a year under US protection
2. Independent Transvaal and Orange Free State
3. No Anglo-German naval race (and no Tirpitz, he's dead)
4. No Kaiser Wilhelm II
5. A reformed German democratic system
6. A hinted-at Becker-Holstein meritocracy overlaying the Reichstag with Wilhelm III a weaker sovereign
7. Closer Anglo-American ties
8. A larger US standing army
9. A blooded and larger US navy
10. Possibly an earlier boost to submarines

IMHO, TR will probably run for a third time reckoning he has earnt it, Colombia may well grant the US canal rights reckoning they are too strong to resist (so no independent Panama)

German colonial politics are now out of favour so neither of the Morocco crises is on the cards, even had Wilhelm III had the power of his father

Lessons will be learnt by both Russia and Japan, and if the Russo-Japanese War occurs it will be very different from OTL

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

[wkwillis]

The German navy is not going anywhere near those Jersey canals. There are known torpedo boats in the area and torpedos can be dismounted and fired from shore. They can shell from the harbor if they don't mind using up their ammunition.

[Grey Wolf]

The German navy is not going anywhere near those Jersey canals. There are known torpedo boats in the area and torpedos can be dismounted and fired from shore. They can shell from the harbor if they don't mind using up their ammunition.

What Jersey canals when, whom ?

Grey Wolf

[wkwillis]

Jersey near Manhattan has a bunch of channels in a swamp. Some were dredged more than a hundred years ago for freight, canal boats, etc. Some areas are called the Meadowlands. If you are on the highway and elevated, you can see the water meadows and salt marshes. In the book '1901' there was a naval encounter in that area. I won't say more because it would give away an incident in the book.
In general, if you have torpedo technology, the enemy will stay away from your shore positions. If they don't, well, in the second world war the Germans lost a cruiser and a landing force in the Oslo fjord to a shore torpedo.

[Pax Britannia]

Well, why do you think there will be anything analogous to the First World War ?

At the end of the book the following are different from OTL :-

1. Independent Philippines within a year under US protection
2. Independent Transvaal and Orange Free State
3. No Anglo-German naval race (and no Tirpitz, he's dead)
4. No Kaiser Wilhelm II
5. A reformed German democratic system
6. A hinted-at Becker-Holstein meritocracy overlaying the Reichstag with Wilhelm III a weaker sovereign
7. Closer Anglo-American ties
8. A larger US standing army
9. A blooded and larger US navy
10. Possibly an earlier boost to submarines

IMHO, TR will probably run for a third time reckoning he has earnt it, Colombia may well grant the US canal rights reckoning they are too strong to resist (so no independent Panama)

German colonial politics are now out of favour so neither of the Morocco crises is on the cards, even had Wilhelm III had the power of his father

Lessons will be learnt by both Russia and Japan, and if the Russo-Japanese War occurs it will be very different from OTL

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

In the book the new German PM hints at war with the weak empires of Austria-Hungary and Italy and also talks of expansion in the east. I think Germany taking aggressive actions like this may spark a first world war.

[Adam Parsons]

I just finished this, and was quite impressed by it. I do have a few thoughts:

1) Most of the major powers have just witnessed the first major war between industrial powers, and its very bloody results. It is entirely possible that this will increase research into more 'knockout' weapons, such as tanks and poison gas.

2) Also, Germany's failure will show the dangers of a) going to war half-cocked, and b) slogging around too long that any initial advantage is lost. Fast, punishing blows may become more popular in military circles.

3) Japan is buggered for the forseeable future, with the USA's power growing in the Pacific, and with a Phillipine client state keeping an eye on things. Of course, the book did mention a Japanese observer somewhere, so maybe they'll get a better read on how the militaristic American works.

More ideas will follow...

[NHBL]

Japan is in a very bad spot indeed. Not only is the US moving into the Pacific, but the USA is entering an alliance with Britian just as Britian no longer needs Japan...
In addition, Japan can no longer simply move in and take relatively poorly defended German colonies if World War One does occurr--they are now American colonies.
Is anyone going to even bother trying to contest with either Britain or America for naval power? I don't think there is anyone that can even try.
Naval power could be a source of trouble between Britain and the US, though. Britian will not easily surrender its number one position--and the US has just learned a harsh lesson about not having a big enough fleet.

[Pax Britannia]

Maybe the USA and Britain could come to some sort of arrangement over fleet sizes that suits both countries. That way no-one gets angry.

[NHBL]

Maybe the USA and Britain could come to some sort of arrangement over fleet sizes that suits both countries. That way no-one gets angry.

That's a good idea--but what would satisfy both nations. Britain is on the two power standard at this time, IIRC, and I don't see Roosevelt accepting second place easily. Any thoughts?
(Especailly since someone is going to develop the dreadnought ahead of schedule, and make everything else obsolete.)
There's also a good reason to develop the batlecruiser, since Britain will certainly look at what the American cruisers did to the convoys with alarm.

[Matt]

That's a good idea--but what would satisfy both nations. Britain is on the two power standard at this time, IIRC, and I don't see Roosevelt accepting second place easily. Any thoughts?



Perhaps Great Britain would only hold the 2 power standard to the European powers? The United States still stands an entire ocean away, and the fleet in the event of war would need to get to to the British Isle's. Well that, or Canada.

[Adam Parsons]

Continuing...

Germany is going to be very interesting for the next few decades. The new ruler, Becker, looks to be a continentalist, but after the New York debacle, the common German isn't going to up to more adventures. I see about a decade or two of peace to allow memories to go dim, then the whole giant mess will start up again.

Could another war start as it did in OTL, with a Serbian assassination getting out of hand? What would this war look like?

[Grey Wolf]

I don't know why everyone is so down on Japan here, this is only 1901-1902. A comparison should be being made between OTL Japan in that period, and the Japanese position in this ATL in this period, and it is hardly a weaker one. I mean, we may know that later Japan went on to swallow up the German colonies, and beyond that to invade China and contest dominance in the Pacific. But in 1901 Japan was more concerned with the Boxer Rebellion, and with Russia's position in Korea (especially) and Manchuria. The question that should be asked, therefore, is whether there is any change to the Russo-Japanese dynamic resulting from the German-American War ? The first question that comes to mind is will there be an Anglo-Japanese alliance ? IMHO this depends not so much on the position of Germany in the Far East, or even of Anglo-Russian rivalry but on how Anglo-American relations develop. If these become formalised in any way, they will throw off the Anglo-French and Anglo-Russian accords of OTL. Ironically, Britain may then want Japan more than OTL, and if Japan gets tied into a UK-US-Japanese alliance then its prospects are definitely not worse than before ?

Sorry for the rambling post, the weather here is awful. I was just about to go out and AGAIN its started raining...

Grey Wolf

[Adam Parsons]

Wasn't Holstein back into prominence in this new republican German Empire? If so, expect Germany to become more anti-Russian (Holstein was a practicing Russophobe). This could lead to trouble down the line.

Say, with Germany on the downswing, could this lead to the Ottomans becoming pro-Entente, with all the good things that would follow from that (according to some)?

[Grimm Reaper]

wkwillis, yes, that little naval engagement with the torpedo destroyers and a little surprise inclusion certainly had an...EXPLOSIVE result. :p

I don't see the US going so far as to menace the British naval position for quite some time. Of course, if the US and Great Britain form a military alliance, well, the more American dreadnaughts, the merrier. Even without, the English are our dear friends and military benefactors, and it would take an AWFUL lot of money and material to build a fleet that large. Surely a completely modern fleet two-thirds the size of the RN would be enough.

Given the situation of the Boers in 1901 it is hard to imagine the British going much softer on them than they did in OTL. A strong case could be made that the Boers won the peace talks, if only because the 'war party' in England had lied about so many things and screwed up so completely that the party wishing to be harsh towards the Boers was effectively ruined.

Ironically, the British THOUGHT that the terms OTL would crush the Boers in the long run but the tremendous birth rate turned it around for the Boers!

Of course, if the two Boer states are independent, that won't stop the British from fishing in their internal affairs again soon, but if this means that Natal and Cape Colony are in no way associated with the Boers...

So, does Germany sell her colonies? Her new government doesn't seem to need them any longer, and I'm sure Japan would be a willing purchaser. If so, do they gain ALL of the colonies, or is the British Dominion claiming something for themselves.

Oh, and Japan is ruined by this. Both Russia and the US are violently opposed to a stronger Japan, and the British need both of them. Too bad for the emperor in Tokyo.

[Grey Wolf]

Well, if Germany gives up SW Afrika, it may well be the pressure release valve for the South African area. OTL the Boers were always trying to expand into Bechuanaland (Botswana) and SW Afrika had a Boer element before the Germans arrived. Additionally, an independent SAR (Transvaal) will continue its plan to make good use of the Portuguese port to the East rather than ship through the Cape or Natal

Grey Wolf

[Faeelin]

In the book the new German PM hints at war with the weak empires of Austria-Hungary and Italy and also talks of expansion in the east. I think Germany taking aggressive actions like this may spark a first world war.

Ah. In other words, the author decided to continue his "all germans are evil."

And evidently can't read maps, unless they've discovered a wormhole that gives them a border with Italy.

[Dave Howery]

not really; quite a few Germans in the book are decent folk... some of them settle in the US after the war. Mostly, it's the Prussian Junkers nobility that gets the 'evil' reputation... or at the arrogant one...

[NHBL]

I din't think Germany will be selling the Pacific colonies to anyone. If I were in Roosevelt's shoes, I'd demand them as part of the peace settlement, along with substantial reparations. Perhaps demand of Germany the exact same financial terms they demanded of the USA? No other nation should claim that was unreasonable, turnabout seems like fair play to me. Britian would approve, as would France, now Germany will have a hard time building a new navy. Russia would like to see Germany taken down a bit, too.
This, of course, is bad for Japan, IF things heat up at all in the Pacific. Russia has less of a threat from that side.
It's also possible that the understanding between Britian and France falls apart with no German naval threat. After all, Britian and France are still traditional rivals...

[Johnestauffer]

Germany makes a 'good' enemy, they are the perpetual villiam.

At the end of '1901' in Germany the old order had fallen. The new leader set his sights elsewhere in Europe. One interesting comment he made was that they could always 'blame the jews' - setting the ground work for the future.

Having lost most of their navy (and most of the leadership through battle deaths, suicide and execution) Germany might have focused on land warfare. Since they saw Austro-Hungary and Italy as weak-sisters of Europe that might have been their next targets.

The US might undertake major military development and end up playing a larger role on the world stage. (If there had been a WW-1, the US might have entered earlier, in 'repayment' for the British support in 1901

[FederationX]

I called 3 bookstores to find this book and nobody had it. It was on the fourth phone call that a bookstore had one copy so I went down there and purchased it. Looks good, mainly got it because of this thread, hehe. A lot of people say this book didn't get a wide release and I'm inclined to agree with them. Well here go...Introduction.

[Grimm Reaper]

FederationX, because there never was any such book as 1901. Just what is it you are trying to find? :p