FH Challenge: What happened here?

[Stalin]

Below is a map of World Superpowers, circa 2037 A.D. The challenge is, create a FTL that allows the sort of world shown below to develop. The only rules are that it must be plausible, and that the US is not a left-leaning regime (the White and Red Star can't mean that the US is now Communist, Socialist, or even Liberal):

[Amerigo Vespucci]

FTL = Future TimeLine, I imagine?

[Stalin]

Yes, FTL stands for Future Timeline. The only reason I'm posting this here on the ASB section is because Ian generally looks down on FH. Probably because it often leads to off topic discussion and flamewars, which are better left to the chat room here. :)

[Paul Spring]

What's that symbol over Russia? It looks kind of like a "Danger - Radiation" type sign.

[RMG]

Maybe it's a cross. Orthodox theocracy?

[Michael E Johnson]

Britian is conservative enough to be the only European country that stays out of the EU? And this Islamic/Muslim superpower I assume its not an American puppet state that votes Republican? :rolleyes: If the US isnt Communist,Socialist or Liberal could it be Chrisitan Theocracy,Fascist or John-Birch conservative ?The one thing we can be sure of is that if that is a rad sign over Russia then China,The EU,The Muslims and all the unaligned gray countires hate the US for the nuclear winter and radiaition disease it unleashed on the world.

[Stalin]

"Britian is conservative enough to be the only European country that stays out of the EU?"

That could be. Or it could be that it's semi-Autonomous, only loosely allied to the EU (like Yugoslavia was with the USSR). Or it could just be a fairly isolationist country, after disasters it experienced with the US and/or the EU. But like I said earlier, all you have to do is come up with a scenario explaining why it isn't lumped with the rest of Europe as part of the EU superstate.

"And this Islamic/Muslim superpower I assume its not an American puppet state that votes Republican?"

Again, that could be. Or it could be a superstate allied to the US, or under it US control. Or it could be entirely different. Like I said earlier, all you have to do is come up with a plausible scenario explaining why this Islamic/Muslim/Semi-Islamic superpower exists.

"If the US isnt Communist,Socialist or Liberal could it be Chrisitan Theocracy,Fascist or John-Birch conservative?"

Yes, it could be. It could also be libertarian, centrist (the star is in the center), under Military Rule (the Words US and a star?), populist, or under any kind of non-Left wing rule. Again, the only rule is that this USA is not Left wing, as we know it.

"The one thing we can be sure of is that if that is a rad sign over Russia then China,The EU,The Muslims and all the unaligned gray countires hate the US for the nuclear winter and radiaition disease it unleashed on the world."

It's not a radiation sign. It's just part of their flag. Of course, you could come up with a scenario where Nuclear War, a conventional war, or a Terrorist attack caused Russia to have a radical change in its political system.

[RMG]

Question: Is Iceland U.S. Blue or EU Blue? I can't tell-- it's too small.

[Stalin]

Question: Is Iceland U.S. Blue or EU Blue? I can't tell-- it's too small.

I accidently colored it US Blue, but it should be EU Blue. Sorry about that.

[Diamond]

It looks like Cuba is either part of the US or allied to it. If so, here's an idea for a beginning for the FH (sorry, I don't have time to continue it to 2037):

2007:
April 19th: Cuban leader Fidel Castro sinks into a coma and dies after a long illness.

April-June: Three distinct factions emerge to struggle for control of Cuba:
-'Traditionalists', led by General Ramon Alvarez, a hardline Castro communist.
-'Reformers', led by Hernan Dominguez, a former mayor of Havana. Support a 'softened' communist regime, advocating closer ties with the US.
-'Radicals', led by Mirabel Zapata, a Miami-based expatriate advocating complete revamping of the government, placing herself & her colleagues in charge.

July-November: Tensions between the three Cuban factions heats up as the sides begin to gather support from various Central American nations and groups within the US. The official US policy is strict neutrality, but President Dean has begun to make noises about supporting Dominguez, whose party seems the friendliest to American interests.

November 27: The Radicals detonate a bomb in downtown Charleston, SC, during a speaking engagement by President Dean after comments the month before to the effect that he 'cannot countenance Mrs. Zapata's impractical demands for US recognition and support'.
US Homeland Security is denounced for not recognizing the threat posed by Zapata (who flees to Venezuala, whose President refuses US extradition demands).

2008:
Throughout the year, popular support for US intervention in Cuba's continuing civil war grows, especially after rogue Reformer forces sink four US civilian vessels and a Coast Guard interceptor in late June. In October, an unknown party launches four Stinger missiles at a US destroyer at anchor at Guantanamo Bay, synchronized with a truck-bombing of the main gates. The attack comes as a killing blow to the Dean administration.

November: US President Dean loses the election to John McCain. Although the Cuban situation was beyond the control of the Dean administration, he is largely blamed for it, and McCain squeaks out a victory almost as slight as Bush's in 2000. McCain pledges to take 'direct action' in Cuba, even after the United Nations and several Central American countries warn against it. UN SecGen Torvaald even threatens sanctions against the US if McCain does not 'allow the UN to work out a peaceful resolution to the Cuban crisis'.

2009:
April 15th: Almost two years to the day after the unofficial start of the Cuban Civil War, US President McCain sends navy and marine elements into Cuba in direct contravention of UN policy. General Alvarez declares war on the US 'on behalf of the Cuban people'. The UN and many European and Central American nations condemn 'US imperialism', and in return, a movement to leave the UN is begun in Congress.

September 28th: US General Alfred Bingham announces an end to hostilities in Cuba after the surrender of Alvarez and his forces, under seige in Havana for the last 3 months. Hernan Dominguez is installed as the new Cuban President pending free elections to be held in early November. Civil unrest continues throughout the countryside, and the US military maintains a heavy presence. Constant sniper attacks and bombings begin to seriously demoralize American public support for the occupation, but McCain pledges to stay in Cuba 'until the job is done'.

October 24th: Dominguez is assassinated by elements of Mirabel Zapata's Radicals. Massive riots rock Havana and other Cuban cities; the general election scheduled for November 10th is postponed indefinitely.

***********************************

How's that? Possible? Completely stupid?

[Beck Reilly]

No, I don't think that's bad.

Greenland is no longer owned by Denmark, which is part of the EU.

One thing I'd think we'd see, if this FTL actually came to be, is much closer relations between Canada, the US, Australia, and New Zealand, plus Britain depending on its connection with the EU. But I don't think that's the point of the 'exercise.'

[Stalin]

It looks like Cuba is either part of the US or allied to it. If so, here's an idea for a beginning for the FH (sorry, I don't have time to continue it to 2037):

2007:
April 19th: Cuban leader Fidel Castro sinks into a coma and dies after a long illness.

April-June: Three distinct factions emerge to struggle for control of Cuba:
-'Traditionalists', led by General Ramon Alvarez, a hardline Castro communist.
-'Reformers', led by Hernan Dominguez, a former mayor of Havana. Support a 'softened' communist regime, advocating closer ties with the US.
-'Radicals', led by Mirabel Zapata, a Miami-based expatriate advocating complete revamping of the government, placing herself & her colleagues in charge.

July-November: Tensions between the three Cuban factions heats up as the sides begin to gather support from various Central American nations and groups within the US. The official US policy is strict neutrality, but President Dean has begun to make noises about supporting Dominguez, whose party seems the friendliest to American interests.

November 27: The Radicals detonate a bomb in downtown Charleston, SC, during a speaking engagement by President Dean after comments the month before to the effect that he 'cannot countenance Mrs. Zapata's impractical demands for US recognition and support'.
US Homeland Security is denounced for not recognizing the threat posed by Zapata (who flees to Venezuala, whose President refuses US extradition demands).

2008:
Throughout the year, popular support for US intervention in Cuba's continuing civil war grows, especially after rogue Reformer forces sink four US civilian vessels and a Coast Guard interceptor in late June. In October, an unknown party launches four Stinger missiles at a US destroyer at anchor at Guantanamo Bay, synchronized with a truck-bombing of the main gates. The attack comes as a killing blow to the Dean administration.

November: US President Dean loses the election to John McCain. Although the Cuban situation was beyond the control of the Dean administration, he is largely blamed for it, and McCain squeaks out a victory almost as slight as Bush's in 2000. McCain pledges to take 'direct action' in Cuba, even after the United Nations and several Central American countries warn against it. UN SecGen Torvaald even threatens sanctions against the US if McCain does not 'allow the UN to work out a peaceful resolution to the Cuban crisis'.

2009:
April 15th: Almost two years to the day after the unofficial start of the Cuban Civil War, US President McCain sends navy and marine elements into Cuba in direct contravention of UN policy. General Alvarez declares war on the US 'on behalf of the Cuban people'. The UN and many European and Central American nations condemn 'US imperialism', and in return, a movement to leave the UN is begun in Congress.

September 28th: US General Alfred Bingham announces an end to hostilities in Cuba after the surrender of Alvarez and his forces, under seige in Havana for the last 3 months. Hernan Dominguez is installed as the new Cuban President pending free elections to be held in early November. Civil unrest continues throughout the countryside, and the US military maintains a heavy presence. Constant sniper attacks and bombings begin to seriously demoralize American public support for the occupation, but McCain pledges to stay in Cuba 'until the job is done'.

October 24th: Dominguez is assassinated by elements of Mirabel Zapata's Radicals. Massive riots rock Havana and other Cuban cities; the general election scheduled for November 10th is postponed indefinitely.

***********************************

How's that? Possible? Completely stupid?

Your FTL is somewhat plausible. The idea of Dean becoming president though seems highly unlikely though. The economy is improving, Saddam has been captured, and Dean has made gaffes which seem to grow more outrageous as the Primaries draw near. At this point, most people are writing him off as "McGovern: the sequel." In general, the Democrats don't seem to have much of a chance. Also, the events seem a little too quick. Terrorist/Radical cells take time to grow, and to plot their attacks. Look at Al Qaeda for instance: Many of their attacks happened three years after one another. Otherwise though, it seems like a pretty decent FTL.

[Stalin]

- No, I don't think that's bad.

Greenland is no longer owned by Denmark, which is part of the EU.

One thing I'd think we'd see, if this FTL actually came to be, is much closer relations between Canada, the US, Australia, and New Zealand, plus Britain depending on its connection with the EU. But I don't think that's the point of the 'exercise.'

Interesting idea, but I don't see that as being entirely likely these days. Most people in Canada, Australia and New Zealand opposed the war and generally don't support the American government. I think that as time goes by, America will look towards Asia, Africa, and South America for allies. And if they can build up those nations, all the while making amends for some of the truly horrible things they allowed to occur in Latin America, they'll probably succeed.

[Beck Reilly]

Yeah, Bush pretty much f*cked that up. 3 years ago, however, I would have seen that as a pretty likely possibility. Australia was one of our best friends.

BTW, I don't think the Eastern European countries would be so quick to jump off the American ship and join the new European nations. Poland, and the former Czechloslovakia are turning out to be our best allies, along with Britain and the Netherlands.

[Stalin]

Yeah, Bush pretty much f*cked that up. 3 years ago, however, I would have seen that as a pretty likely possibility. Australia was one of our best friends.

BTW, I don't think the Eastern European countries would be so quick to jump off the American ship and join the new European nations. Poland, and the former Czechloslovakia are turning out to be our best allies, along with Britain and the Netherlands.

No, Bush alone didn't "f*ck that up". In reality, it could have been any other president who offended millions of people like he did when he went to War with Iraq. In fact, considering the amount of times Clinton came close to declaring war there, and the past history of WMD/BCWs development and BCW use by Saddam, I think this was almost inevitable.

Anyway, Politics aside I think you have a point when it comes to Eastern Europe. They are still fairly pro-American, though again the War has increasingly put them at odds with us. However, as the EU grows stronger and pro-American feeling begins to waver, I suspect many of those nations will join the EU. But not until much later probably.

[Beck Reilly]

One thing I just thought of, why would we conquer Iraq just to let it slip into the grasp of a Muslim superpower? Somehow, I don't see us leaving Iraq without enough control to stop that from happening. BTW, I think Egypt is going to be one of the up-and-coming superpowers, along with India and Brazil. None of them are listed as superpowers.

There is only one superpower on there which I think is implausible 40 years down the road: the United States of America. I think the time of the US has come and gone. We're slipping now, as everyone can tell. And I say this as an American myself.

[Stalin]

One thing I just thought of, why would we conquer Iraq just to let it slip into the grasp of a Muslim superpower? Somehow, I don't see us leaving Iraq without enough control to stop that from happening. BTW, I think Egypt is going to be one of the up-and-coming superpowers, along with India and Brazil. None of them are listed as superpowers.

There is only one superpower on there which I think is implausible 40 years down the road: the United States of America. I think the time of the US has come and gone. We're slipping now, as everyone can tell. And I say this as an American myself.

Brazil as a superpower, but America as a has-been nation? America has a far better work ethic, and is much more developed. America has continually defied conventional views of history and popular perception too. Remember that we started out as a backwater colony, and within less than 200 years became the most powerful nation in the world. Also remember that we had a civil war, great depression, and a period of so-called "national malaise" (where people had the exact same sentiments that you do now) but it still recovered and emerged stronger than ever. America might seem to be in decline, but it will recover. We've done it in the past, and we can easily do it again. Especially if my Generation (b. 1981-1999) keeps up its continued decrease in crime, increase in test scores, increased optimism, etc. If anything causes us to decline, it will be the defeatist attitude too many people have these days.

BTW: I didn’t color in Egypt as part of the Arab Superpower. Damn, that’s what I get for doing a map when I haven’t had coffee. I'll re-do the map in a few minutes to include Egypt...

[Stalin]

Here's the revised map of the Superpowers:

[Beck Reilly]

Brazil as a superpower, but America as a has-been nation?

Actually, Brazil has all the makings of a future superpower: A) large population base, B) a lot of space, C) natural resources, D) not much competition on its continent, and E) it's pretty much ignored by the rest of the world.

All in all, when you look closely you see that Brazil has about the same advantages that America had in about 1880. That puts Brazil 30-65 years from being a superpower, depending on your definition of the word "superpower".

As for the United States, one thing that all superpowers have in common is that they are not utterly dependent on others for their survival. I.E. manufacturing. It was our industry that won WWII, our industry that drove the SU into the ground.

Check the back of your computer. Where's it made? China. Check your clothing. Where's it made? Indonesia. America, despite still being the largest industrial nation in the world, is losing its manufacturing. The only way to recover industry when you have to compete against factory owners who pay their workers $0.03 a day is through the use of tariffs. Unfortunately, the presidents of the past 20 years, both Republicans and Democrats, have signed away our right to place tariffs upon other nations.

What happens if a war develops between us and China (which is all but ineveitable)? How are we going to get our computers, clothing, cell phones, tupperware, and other necessities of life? We're not going to be able to make it ourselves, we've lost that ability. The only way to recover our status as the superpower for the future is to rebuild our industry, and quickly.

[emperorharry86]

Is Baja California part of the US?
It appears to be on that map.
It also appears that Haiti is part of the US.
(white outlining)

[Stalin]

Actually, Brazil has all the makings of a future superpower: A) large population base, B) a lot of space, C) natural resources, D) not much competition on its continent, and E) it's pretty much ignored by the rest of the world.

All in all, when you look closely you see that Brazil has about the same advantages that America had in about 1880. That puts Brazil 30-65 years from being a superpower, depending on your definition of the word "superpower".

As for the United States, one thing that all superpowers have in common is that they are not utterly dependent on others for their survival. I.E. manufacturing. It was our industry that won WWII, our industry that drove the SU into the ground.

Check the back of your computer. Where's it made? China. Check your clothing. Where's it made? Indonesia. America, despite still being the largest industrial nation in the world, is losing its manufacturing. The only way to recover industry when you have to compete against factory owners who pay their workers $0.03 a day is through the use of tariffs. Unfortunately, the presidents of the past 20 years, both Republicans and Democrats, have signed away our right to place tariffs upon other nations.

What happens if a war develops between us and China (which is all but ineveitable)? How are we going to get our computers, clothing, cell phones, tupperware, and other necessities of life? We're not going to be able to make it ourselves, we've lost that ability. The only way to recover our status as the superpower for the future is to rebuild our industry, and quickly.

Good points, but still while Brazil has the potential to become a superpower, it still lacks the stability and general work-your-nose-to-the-grindstone mentality that allows any nation to become a Superpower. In terms of Trade: You're right, but again all we need is a renewal of Industry in this country. And given the general anti-Sweatshop views of many young people, and the increasing resentment of things like NAFTA by many, I think that's only a matter of time. In any case though, I really think we shouldn't write this country off yet.

BTW: War with China is inevitable? Come on, neither one of our countries is willing to go that far. At worst, we could have a Second Cold War between our two countries. But because of MAD, I don't see either nation going that far, at least not in the near future.

[tom]

I would guess we are only a few years away from a war with either China or the Muslim World...and quite likey both at once. I don't know how it would come out, especially if we have both at the same time.

[Stalin]

Is Baja California part of the US?
It appears to be on that map.
It also appears that Haiti is part of the US.
(white outlining)

Baja California is in fact part of the US. Haiti is a territory, but not a actual state (due to its poverty)... Yet.

[Beck Reilly]

In any case though, I really think we shouldn't write this country off yet.

BTW: War with China is inevitable? Come on, neither one of our countries is willing to go that far. At worst, we could have a Second Cold War between our two countries. But because of MAD, I don't see either nation going that far, at least not in the near future.

First of all, I'm not writing it off. I'm saying we're in a hole and it will require some digging to get us out. We're going to start changing some things if we want to be on top for the next three hundred years of our history.

Second, yes, war with China is inevitable. It's going to come over Taiwan and probably sooner than we think. China is not going to stand for Taiwan declaring independence and we're obligated by treaty to come to Taiwan's aid. In fact, I read just a week ago that the new regime in Taiwan is considering declaring complete independence from China within the next 5 years. Then, you have to consider Siberia (China's overflowing with people and need's more land ; what's better than a population-free, former Chinese land with more unexploited resources than God) or North Korea (we can't let them built nuclear weapons ; W. has sort of put that issue on the back burner). BTW, just a couple of weeks ago the US Navy had to scare away a Chinese submarine tailing one of our aircraft carriers. Not a very well-reported incident but a telling one.

[Paul Spring]

The main problem with industry returning to the US is this - why would any sane company keep manufacturing in a place where it's much more expensive? Would any sane consumer accept far more expensive and scarcer goods simply because they're made in their own country? I don't think that you can easily turn back the clock on things like that.

[Beck Reilly]

The main problem with industry returning to the US is this - why would any sane company keep manufacturing in a place where it's much more expensive? Would any sane consumer accept far more expensive and scarcer goods simply because they're made in their own country? I don't think that you can easily turn back the clock on things like that.

That's my point. The only way to "turn back the clock," as you put it, is to place large tariffs on imported manufactured goods. Unfortunately, the politicians have signed away our right to place tariffs. The only way to return industry to the United States is to find a politician with the guts to back out of NAFTA and all the other "free trade agreements" which are harming our country. Again, unfortunately, most politicians are in the pockets of big business and are therefore, not going to do anything to eliminate some of the profits from these American companies manufacturing goods in Asia. A start towards making wages that companies pay to US workers cheaper would be to have government-sanctioned universal healthcare, that way the employers don't have to pay an extra $3,000 a year for employee healthcare.

[Stalin]

The world of the late 2030's:

RRP USA: When the Millennial Generation began to mature and WWIII occurred in Asia and the Middle East, the US went through hard times. Massive casualties, a weak economy, crippling national debt, violence and political bickering had all taken their toll on it. But then out of the Republican Party, a new "Justice-Conservatism" movement began to form. It rejected the small-government and pro-free trade beliefs of the traditional right, almost as much as it did social liberalism, secularism, and globalism. It promised reform, security, elimination of "degenerative influences on American society", and more importantly renewal of American power. The more staunch conservatives GOP split from the RRP, but the RRP still went on to win the Presidency and the senate. They also went on to gain enormous influence in the Media and Entertainment. Then after the president sent troops to secure the inner city, the resulting violence forced Martial Law to be declared. The US then proceeded to annex small pockets of land, though it is now eying Canada, Mexico and Greenland...

European Union: At the dawn of the 21st century, the EU was merely an alliance of nations. Soon however, the EU began become a state entity. As this occurred, it grew militarily and financially. By the time of the Third World War, it was a superpower. After the catastrophe, the EU wasted no time demanding the US pay back its national debt. This created enormous resentment in the American public, and it further destroyed relations between the two powers. Since the RRP rose to power, it has been increasingly worried about the re-emerging American superpower...

Great Russian States: After the AIDS crisis began to peak in the 2020's, and WWIII had devastated the country, many people were fed up with the corrupt secular-Democracy of Russia. They turned to a new breed of Arch-conservatives, many of whom allied with the Orthodox Church. After the rise of the Orthodox National Party, the nation became a de-facto right-wing theocracy, as Church leaders gained influence. Violence continued to rise however, and the military patrolled the streets to stamp out radicalism. Russia soon recovered, and began to annex other states. Now, it too is becoming more involved in Asia, Middle East, and Europe...

Pan-Arab Caliphate: After Iraq occupation ended, many Arab states began to reform, while others became more extreme. But regardless of their differences, most could agree that they needed to Unite in order to stabilize and deal with the problems and political liabilities posed by Terrorism and US involvement. The nations of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and many others formed the Pan-Arab caliphate. The rising power soon found itself propelled to superpower status after WWIII, despite having lost an enormous amount of life and infrastructure. Now, it is increasingly becoming involved in Asia and Europe...

People's States of China: After starting WWIII, China lost millions of young men and women. However, it soon recovered financially and began the process of rebuilding itself. After major economic boom in the 2020's, it began to annex surrounding areas once again, despite widespread protest and international laws forbidding it. Its relations with the USA have improved somewhat however, even as it continues to become more involved in Asia and the nearby Middle East...

[NapoleonXIV]

That's my point. The only way to "turn back the clock," as you put it, is to place large tariffs on imported manufactured goods. Unfortunately, the politicians have signed away our right to place tariffs. The only way to return industry to the United States is to find a politician with the guts to back out of NAFTA and all the other "free trade agreements" which are harming our country. Again, unfortunately, most politicians are in the pockets of big business and are therefore, not going to do anything to eliminate some of the profits from these American companies manufacturing goods in Asia. A start towards making wages that companies pay to US workers cheaper would be to have government-sanctioned universal healthcare, that way the employers don't have to pay an extra $3,000 a year for employee healthcare.

One question, who, in the end, pays the tariff? The foreign manufacturer certainly doesnt. He passes it along or stops selling here and we do. Tariffs raise our own cost of living and then lose more jobs than they save, since foreign governments raise tariffs against us in kind. Thusly, they penalise our efficient industries who can compete against foreign products in favor of the inefficient ones who can't. High Tariffs would turn the US into an economic backwater. The only way to compete is through increased produtivity, Economic forces cannot be changed by legislation.

I'm beginning to sound like a conservative here but who will pay the $3000 for healthcare? Despite all our best wishes the government cannot simply create money out of thin air.

Oh...and uh...the timeline :) Why is the US so powerful once again? You said the US had suffered a lot in the war. Why and how did we rebuild so fast?

[Beck Reilly]

I'm beginning to sound like a conservative here but who will pay the $3000 for healthcare? Despite all our best wishes the government cannot simply create money out of thin air.

I'm not completely familiar with the healthcare system but I do know that all the western European nations (and Canada and Australia and pretty much all the first world nations) have universal healthcare. I also know that US-made drugs cost a Canadian a third the ammount of the $ they cost me...

[Stalin]

I'm not completely familiar with the healthcare system but I do know that all the western European nations (and Canada and Australia and pretty much all the first world nations) have universal healthcare. I also know that US-made drugs cost a Canadian a third the ammount of the $ they cost me...

That may be true, but what about the higher taxes, long-waiting periods, loss of privacy and bureaucracy associated with a socialized Healthcare? I think PJ O'Rourke said it best: "If you think Healthcare is expensive now, wait until you see how much it costs when it's free."

[Stalin]

Oh...and uh...the timeline :) Why is the US so powerful once again? You said the US had suffered a lot in the war. Why and how did we rebuild so fast?

Why did we rebuild so fast? Because corporations, the government, and private individuals poured enormous amounts of money into rebuilding. Unfortunately, the rebuilding only applied to helping veterans of the war and repairing damaged infrastructure, and the US still was in huge debt, chaos, etc. So after the neo-Populist Justice-Conervatives (aka Justice-Cons, or JCs) came to power in the US, there were major initiatives taken to restoring the USA to power. Things like militarization programs, "make work" programs, tax breaks for Small & Large Businesses, compulsory community service, prison forced lab... err Rehabilitation programs for criminals etc. all helped it recover

[Paul Spring]

Yes, son, it’s true – a lot of the countries that now make up the European Union used to be our allies. Then again, that was a different world. When I was a kid, it was the Russians who were the big enemies of the United States. Can you imagine that – they’re practically our only allies now! Then, the old Soviet Union collapsed and the world changed and for a while the United States didn’t have one big foreign enemy. Almost every other country was either friendly or neutral or at least too weak to challenge this nation of ours. The US had plenty of problems (what country doesn’t?), and more and more economic competition from overseas, but who was crazy enough to challenge the United States military?

Ah, but when you’re on a pedestal, it makes you a great target for people who want to shoot you down. At the beginning of the century nobody was ready to take us on in a straight up fight, but there are lots of other ways to hurt a country, and terrorist attacks are one of them. September 11, 2001, was a huge shock to many people, even though it shouldn’t have been. There had been terrorist attacks in the US before, though not as often as in a lot of other countries. This attack was bigger than anything we had seen before, and the effects would last for many years. Well, Bush sent US forces into Afghanistan, and then Iraq. The second country didn’t have any proven links to the terrorists that attacked the US, but we invaded anyway because the ruler of Iraq had been hostile to the US for years and our leaders figured we could replace him with a friendly regime. Well, the US forces and the Brits destroyed the Iraqi army quickly enough, but there were enough people in Iraq who didn’t like the US occupation to make things more difficult than most people expected. All of those guerilla attacks kept killing more and more US soldiers, and people began to wonder what we had gotten ourselves into. Also, the governments and most of the people in Europe were dead set against the US invasion in the first place, and they certainly weren’t going to help later. So, in 2004, President Bush lost to Dean in an election almost as close as the one that had brought him into the presidency. Dean tried to have the US be everyone’s friend, but it didn’t do any good. The troops left, and in a few months Iraq was falling back into chaos. The US never completely repaired relations with the Europeans, either. The EU was a rival now, economically of course, but also politically and even militarily. They were getting along better and better with China and the Middle Eastern countries, the same ones that had worsening relations with the US. Dean was another 1 term president, but by 2010 it was becoming obvious that no matter who was president, the US was becoming almost totally isolated.

The fact of the matter, though, was that most Americans liked it that way. Isolationism was back in style. Every time the government did something outside the country, it just seemed to make things worse. We would spend hundreds of billions of dollars over the years and would get only criticism from everyone else. To hell with the rest of the world! That was the country that you were born into. We started recalling troops from Europe, the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, Columbia, and other places. US soldiers weren’t exactly well-liked in most of those countries, and most Americans didn’t want them their either. For once, our interests and those of other countries lined up perfectly! By 2015, there were very few US troops anywhere outside the US. If people thought that this would mean a more peaceful world, though, they were about to have their hopes crushed. In the middle east, a conservative version of Islam gained more and more support by condemning both western secularism and the more extreme, violent fundamentalists. Before long, the governments of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia were dominated by this movement. By 2018, these states were joining into a kind of federation. At the same time, the European Union brought more states in, and became stronger. Politically, the continent of Europe went to the left, and the EU became a super welfare state. People who were conservative, nationalist, or religious were discriminated against, just as people who were liberals or atheists were here. This was just too much for the Brits, who decided to drop out of the EU when they saw what direction it was headed in. It seemed, you know, like the USA and the EU were forming into opposite poles of the same civilization. There was definitely more hostility – the number of American tourists going to Europe dropped, and the same was true for Europeans going to the US. Russia hated the EU, especially after they got the Ukraine and Byelorus to join in 2027. Meanwhile, the Islamic Federation was admitting more countries, including several in Central Asia. Then, of course, there were always the Chinese – they were now the largest economic power in the world, and a terrible threat to Russia. As more people in Russia started to believe that they were threatened, they turned to the ultra-nationalist, ultra-orthodox parties.

The Russians weren’t the only ones who were going ultraconservative, though. Right here in the good old USA, it seems that the majority of people decided to follow Russia’s example. The American Reform party rose out of nowhere, grabbed most of the voters from the dying Republican party, and swept into power in ’32. Now, the Reform people had that wonderful new idea called “aggressive isolationism”, -the US will interfere with other countries but at the same time we’ll totally ignore what the rest of the world thinks of about our interference. Hell, we’ve done the same thing before, but no earlier president was so blunt as to actually come right out and SAY it. Within 2 years we had gone into Cuba to save the conservative government’s skin there from the rebels, and then we went into Mexico and annexed Baja California when their own civil war broke out.

Now we’ve got the American Reformers in power, stronger than ever. We’ve also got government censorship and surveillance stronger than ever, but of course only vicious criminals have to worry about that (cough). We’ve “temporarily” occupied a big chunk of northern Mexico, which of course we plan to give right back as soon as Mexico has a stable government. Our tariffs and our prices are sky-high – you know, there was once a time when your average working schmuck could save enough money to actually BUY a little of the latest technology that was out there. Now, we have nano-robotic surgery, anti-viral agents, and bio-chip implants, but do you think that you or I will ever be able to come close to affording any of this? Yeah, I know that we can’t depend on stuff made in other countries that we might end up having a trade embargo on, and all that jazz about American needing its own techno-industrial base. I’m just saying that it’s a friggin’ awful time to be a consumer. All this new tech, and about 250 million Americans are like a bunch of poor orphans in a fancy toy store – you can look all you want, but you’ll never be able to afford any of it! Of course, if you hear the Euros talk, they make it sound like their government health care pays for everything, but that’s all so much bull. Over there it’s like here – only a small minority get the best stuff, everyone else gets the old, stale leftovers. The only difference is that here the people who get it are the ones with lots of money, over there the ones that get it are the ones who have the best connections with the damn bureaucrats that run everything. In China, I hear it’s sort of a combination of the two.

Sorry, I’m rambling. I don’t get to talk about this stuff often – you know, at work you never know who might be safe to talk to. I just worry, that’s all. When I was just about the same age that you are now, my father said – and I’ll never forget this – that he was worried about people my age, because we were the first generation in the history of the USA that didn’t have much of a chance of having a better life than their parents. In a way, I think he was right. I’m afraid that the same thing might be true of your generation, son. The USA seems to be past its peak, no matter what the optimists say. Just looking at the military side of things, we’ve got three huge enemies – the EU, the Chinese, and the Islamic Federation. We’ve only got 1 ally – Russia, of all places. You know where the real future of the planet lies, though? The future is with the countries that were smart enough to stay out of this stupid international cockfight. Look at whose standards of living are highest – Australia and New Zealand. Look at who is growing the fastest – Brazil, India, South Africa. A lot of African countries aren’t nearly as poor as they used to be. Argentina and Indonesia are up and coming. Where are so many of the smartest, most ambitious young people from the USA, the EU, China, Russia, the IF, going? They’re going to countries where economic growth, low taxes, and peace are the priorities. Hell, I might actually go to Australia if I had anywhere near the kind of money I’d need. No, scratch that, I don’t want to live anyplace where it’s as hot as an oven on Christmas Day.

Well, I’ve rambled on long enough. I’m glad that someone around has the patience to listen to my verbal diarrhea. I’m really serious, though – when I try to guess what the future will be for this country, it doesn’t exactly look that great.

[Stalin]

Yes, son, it’s true – a lot of the countries that now make up the European Union used to be our allies. Then again, that was a different world. When I was a kid, it was the Russians who were the big enemies of the United States. Can you imagine that – they’re practically our only allies now! Then, the old Soviet Union collapsed and the world changed and for a while the United States didn’t have one big foreign enemy. Almost every other country was either friendly or neutral or at least too weak to challenge this nation of ours. The US had plenty of problems (what country doesn’t?), and more and more economic competition from overseas, but who was crazy enough to challenge the United States military?

Ah, but when you’re on a pedestal, it makes you a great target for people who want to shoot you down. At the beginning of the century nobody was ready to take us on in a straight up fight, but there are lots of other ways to hurt a country, and terrorist attacks are one of them. September 11, 2001, was a huge shock to many people, even though it shouldn’t have been. There had been terrorist attacks in the US before, though not as often as in a lot of other countries. This attack was bigger than anything we had seen before, and the effects would last for many years. Well, Bush sent US forces into Afghanistan, and then Iraq. The second country didn’t have any proven links to the terrorists that attacked the US, but we invaded anyway because the ruler of Iraq had been hostile to the US for years and our leaders figured we could replace him with a friendly regime. Well, the US forces and the Brits destroyed the Iraqi army quickly enough, but there were enough people in Iraq who didn’t like the US occupation to make things more difficult than most people expected. All of those guerilla attacks kept killing more and more US soldiers, and people began to wonder what we had gotten ourselves into. Also, the governments and most of the people in Europe were dead set against the US invasion in the first place, and they certainly weren’t going to help later. So, in 2004, President Bush lost to Dean in an election almost as close as the one that had brought him into the presidency. Dean tried to have the US be everyone’s friend, but it didn’t do any good. The troops left, and in a few months Iraq was falling back into chaos. The US never completely repaired relations with the Europeans, either. The EU was a rival now, economically of course, but also politically and even militarily. They were getting along better and better with China and the Middle Eastern countries, the same ones that had worsening relations with the US. Dean was another 1 term president, but by 2010 it was becoming obvious that no matter who was president, the US was becoming almost totally isolated.

The fact of the matter, though, was that most Americans liked it that way. Isolationism was back in style. Every time the government did something outside the country, it just seemed to make things worse. We would spend hundreds of billions of dollars over the years and would get only criticism from everyone else. To hell with the rest of the world! That was the country that you were born into. We started recalling troops from Europe, the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, Columbia, and other places. US soldiers weren’t exactly well-liked in most of those countries, and most Americans didn’t want them their either. For once, our interests and those of other countries lined up perfectly! By 2015, there were very few US troops anywhere outside the US. If people thought that this would mean a more peaceful world, though, they were about to have their hopes crushed. In the middle east, a conservative version of Islam gained more and more support by condemning both western secularism and the more extreme, violent fundamentalists. Before long, the governments of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia were dominated by this movement. By 2018, these states were joining into a kind of federation. At the same time, the European Union brought more states in, and became stronger. Politically, the continent of Europe went to the left, and the EU became a super welfare state. People who were conservative, nationalist, or religious were discriminated against, just as people who were liberals or atheists were here. This was just too much for the Brits, who decided to drop out of the EU when they saw what direction it was headed in. It seemed, you know, like the USA and the EU were forming into opposite poles of the same civilization. There was definitely more hostility – the number of American tourists going to Europe dropped, and the same was true for Europeans going to the US. Russia hated the EU, especially after they got the Ukraine and Byelorus to join in 2027. Meanwhile, the Islamic Federation was admitting more countries, including several in Central Asia. Then, of course, there were always the Chinese – they were now the largest economic power in the world, and a terrible threat to Russia. As more people in Russia started to believe that they were threatened, they turned to the ultra-nationalist, ultra-orthodox parties.

The Russians weren’t the only ones who were going ultraconservative, though. Right here in the good old USA, it seems that the majority of people decided to follow Russia’s example. The American Reform party rose out of nowhere, grabbed most of the voters from the dying Republican party, and swept into power in ’32. Now, the Reform people had that wonderful new idea called “aggressive isolationism”, -the US will interfere with other countries but at the same time we’ll totally ignore what the rest of the world thinks of about our interference. Hell, we’ve done the same thing before, but no earlier president was so blunt as to actually come right out and SAY it. Within 2 years we had gone into Cuba to save the conservative government’s skin there from the rebels, and then we went into Mexico and annexed Baja California when their own civil war broke out.

Now we’ve got the American Reformers in power, stronger than ever. We’ve also got government censorship and surveillance stronger than ever, but of course only vicious criminals have to worry about that (cough). We’ve “temporarily” occupied a big chunk of northern Mexico, which of course we plan to give right back as soon as Mexico has a stable government. Our tariffs and our prices are sky-high – you know, there was once a time when your average working schmuck could save enough money to actually BUY a little of the latest technology that was out there. Now, we have nano-robotic surgery, anti-viral agents, and bio-chip implants, but do you think that you or I will ever be able to come close to affording any of this? Yeah, I know that we can’t depend on stuff made in other countries that we might end up having a trade embargo on, and all that jazz about American needing its own techno-industrial base. I’m just saying that it’s a friggin’ awful time to be a consumer. All this new tech, and about 250 million Americans are like a bunch of poor orphans in a fancy toy store – you can look all you want, but you’ll never be able to afford any of it! Of course, if you hear the Euros talk, they make it sound like their government health care pays for everything, but that’s all so much bull. Over there it’s like here – only a small minority get the best stuff, everyone else gets the old, stale leftovers. The only difference is that here the people who get it are the ones with lots of money, over there the ones that get it are the ones who have the best connections with the damn bureaucrats that run everything. In China, I hear it’s sort of a combination of the two.

Sorry, I’m rambling. I don’t get to talk about this stuff often – you know, at work you never know who might be safe to talk to. I just worry, that’s all. When I was just about the same age that you are now, my father said – and I’ll never forget this – that he was worried about people my age, because we were the first generation in the history of the USA that didn’t have much of a chance of having a better life than their parents. In a way, I think he was right. I’m afraid that the same thing might be true of your generation, son. The USA seems to be past its peak, no matter what the optimists say. Just looking at the military side of things, we’ve got three huge enemies – the EU, the Chinese, and the Islamic Federation. We’ve only got 1 ally – Russia, of all places. You know where the real future of the planet lies, though? The future is with the countries that were smart enough to stay out of this stupid international cockfight. Look at whose standards of living are highest – Australia and New Zealand. Look at who is growing the fastest – Brazil, India, South Africa. A lot of African countries aren’t nearly as poor as they used to be. Argentina and Indonesia are up and coming. Where are so many of the smartest, most ambitious young people from the USA, the EU, China, Russia, the IF, going? They’re going to countries where economic growth, low taxes, and peace are the priorities. Hell, I might actually go to Australia if I had anywhere near the kind of money I’d need. No, scratch that, I don’t want to live anyplace where it’s as hot as an oven on Christmas Day.

Well, I’ve rambled on long enough. I’m glad that someone around has the patience to listen to my verbal diarrhea. I’m really serious, though – when I try to guess what the future will be for this country, it doesn’t exactly look that great.

Though the idea of Dean becoming president seems implausible to me, your FTL is very well done. I feel creeped out and depressed just reading it... Which is a sign that it's excellent! This is a disturbing, highly likely future world you've written about. It seems to be a cross between 1984, Brazil, and right now (which could arguably turn out to be even grimer than either of those stories). Keep up the good work!

BTW: I'm thinking of doing a What Happened here? V. 2.0 thread after more people reply to this. It has a map with some of the same superpowers (and some similar ones), yet with some major differences. Anyway, how does that sound?