Seed For A More Complex Scenario: Chinese World Hegemony

[DISSIDENT]

Its common knowledge to most fans of AH that the Chinese were light years ahead of the western world for centuries, until around the time the spectacular economic, technological and demographic growth of the Song Dynasty was aborted by the ravages of the Mongol invasions. Many historical commentators have stated that this time period seemed likely to create the synthesis of factors that created the Industrial Revolution in England in the 1700s and 1800s in OTL.Even before that, Chinese civilization had a seemingly insurmountable edge on the West.

I would like to create a scenario set around an alternate present where the only major power is a Chinese civilization that underwent an industrial expansion, though not nessecarily revolution, between 1200 and 1400. There are regional powers and numerous independent kingdoms and states, but all are ultimately beholden through sheer economics to China. Chinese colonies exist on the Pacific Coast of North America, Northern Australia, Polynesia, and a few other places, though they have many client states and tributaries in Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean and in Native American kingdoms in the Americas, descended from the survivors of the epidemics and wars the Chinese settlers in California and Oregon induced. The Chinese tradition of empirical thought and inquiry has produced a crude facisimile of scientific method, but without the systematic discussion of OTL and with many more dead ends and metaphysical baggage. Steam is the technological basis, and centuries of heavy steam engine use have caused a good bit of global warming. It might be nessecary to find a sufficiently early POD to circumvent the rise of Europe as we knew it, as Europe's rise was somewhat difficult to prevent after 600 CE.

Any ideas, comments or thoughts?

[Ar Skoul]

The problem is that China was historically not very interested in worldwide (trade or otherwise) expansion, which a significant part of its ruling elite viewed (rightly so) as dangerous for domestic social order.
The main objectives of virtually all chinese regime (including the "Communist Dynasty") were :
- domestic order (a result which historically was hard to achieve), which basically means that most Chinese Dynasty were adverse to social change. The confucean elite was still more and opposed everything which amounted to adventurism.
- security of the heartland against nomads or, more rarely, non-nomadic power such as Tibet. This meant asserting some control over the periphery, but abstaining from expeditions whose cost could destabilize the dynasty for uncertain results (the nomads were nearly impossible to submit until the XVIII th century)

Moreover, the Chinese state was mosty agrarian, which means that trade was considered secondary at best and the geographical isolation meant there was nothing to gain from long range expedition.
To sumarize : to make China a superpower you have to change a long-established cultural and strategic pattern. Not easy. There are a few possibilities, however.

- the penglai expedition : around 215 BC the Qin emperor sent a huge expedition in search of the elexir of immortality. Historically it settled down in Japan (coming back without the elexir would have been very unhealthy for the commander). They might have end up in California or Oregon instead and jump-start a china bis there.

- the Southern Song. That's a distinct possibility but you have to remove the Mongol Empire (Gengis dies in infancy) or to destroy it early (through civil war after Gengis' death for instance), while keeping Song weak enough not to reconquer the North. The unique characteristics of the SouthernSong were due to the fact they controlled only the South and were dependent on trade for their survival. They may, then develop a self-sustaining industrialization process (not necessarily akin to the European one) which doest not translate into military superiority until something similar to capitalism is established and the confucean elite somewhat displaced.

- the Ming expeditions of 1421 could have led to a chinese age of exploration but that's unlikely. The confucean elite was opposed to it and the whole thing was dropped after Emperor YongLe's death.

other possibilities :

- a conquest from a non-nomadic power (Japan or Tibet, for instance) trigerring an interest for the outside world.
- a chinese Meiji in the XIX the century with a new dynasty (not the Tai-Ping obviously) replacing the Qin.

I would not worry, however, about Europe in that kind of scenario . The sheer size of China means that if it develops, its economy and military might will eventually dwarf any competitors' (except an Unified India). I know, bad news fo the future.