It is Austria's destiny to rule Germany

[Brady Kj]

IOTL, the Prussian Otto van Bismarck united all of Germany except for Austria, which he left alone because Austria was the only German kingdom that could rival Prussia. What if instead of a Prussian annexing other countries, it was an Austrian, and this Austrian decided to leave Prussia alone? Is this feasible? Would it require a pretty early POD? What would the consequences of this unification be for the future of Germany into the 20th century?

[I Blame Communism]

Well, Bismarck didn't really leave Austria out because it was the only state that could rival Prussia, because he rivalled it pretty succesfully. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austro-Prussian_War) He left it out because domestically, internationally, in all respects, "Greater Germany" was felt to be risky and destabilising.

The Austrians were for a long time against nationalism generally, but after 1861 they tried to take advantage of their prestige with German liberals (Prussia under Bismarck was then pretty universally reviled) to tighten the German confederation under their leadership. Their programme was supported by most of the Third Germany, and blocked, of course, by Prussia.

If Austria had won the *1866 War, they'd likely have enforced something similar on the defeated Prussians, and hacked off large chunks of Prussia including some prime industrial lands to give out to the Mittelstaaten. In this case, however, Bismarck would have fallen in disgrace, and Prussia would almost certainly be taken over by a somewhat nationalist government happy to participate in the new tightened Bund under Austrian leadership. I can't see how you'd exclude Prussia. "Kleindeutschland" always meant excluding Austria, and Prussia was not a compact block of land attached to large non-German territories like Austria.

So, very quick sketch: France and Sardinia win an unqualified victory in 1859 and take Venetia from the Austrians. Austria, Prussia still come to blows at some point in the 1860s, but it occurs at a point when Austria has a better chance militarily (although I understand that if the Austrians had drawn Koeniggratz, the Prussians were in a pretty bad way). Conservatives are in charge of French foreign policy and friendly to Austria from the start, blessing Austrian victory in exchange for France receiving some bits and pieces in the Rhine valley, and license to take Luxembourg. I can flesh it out a bit when I've checked my books if necessary.

Well, everything's changed. I think it likely that the Bund will gradually draw together under Hapsburg leadership, and the other Hapsburg kingdoms gradually drift away, but diplomacy is going to have changed completely well before 1900, and there's no particular way it has to go.

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Prussia-less Germany would have been realistic if the Prussia state had been reduced to the peripherial, semi-Polish northeastern corner of its old territory (Posen, Eastern- and Western Prussia). These provinces were not even part of the German Confederation except for three years.

[I Blame Communism]

Prussia-less Germany would have been realistic if the Prussia state had been reduced to the peripherial, semi-Polish northeastern corner of its old territory (Posen, Eastern- and Western Prussia). These provinces were not even part of the German Confederation except for three years.

True, but as soon as the union between Brandenburg and East Prussia was established, the capital was Berlin and Brandenburg (and enclaves further west in Germany) were the more important bits of the state. A continuing East Prussian state may well never become part of *Germany, though, and without Brandenburg-Prussia an Austrian-dominated HRE is pretty likely.

[Faeelin]

The Austrians were for a long time against nationalism generally, but after 1861 they tried to take advantage of their prestige with German liberals (Prussia under Bismarck was then pretty universally reviled) to tighten the German confederation under their leadership. Their programme was supported by most of the Third Germany, and blocked, of course, by Prussia.

If Austria had won the *1866 War, they'd likely have enforced something similar on the defeated Prussians, and hacked off large chunks of Prussia including some prime industrial lands to give out to the Mittelstaaten. In this case, however, Bismarck would have fallen in disgrace, and Prussia would almost certainly be taken over by a somewhat nationalist government happy to participate in the new tightened Bund under Austrian leadership. I can't see how you'd exclude Prussia. "Kleindeutschland" always meant excluding Austria, and Prussia was not a compact block of land attached to large non-German territories like Austria.

Well, everything's changed. I think it likely that the Bund will gradually draw together under Hapsburg leadership, and the other Hapsburg kingdoms gradually drift away, but diplomacy is going to have changed completely well before 1900, and there's no particular way it has to go.

Okay, write something up? Please?

[I Blame Communism]

Okay, write something up? Please?

Exams, exams... ;)

[Susano]

True, but as soon as the union between Brandenburg and East Prussia was established, the capital was Berlin and Brandenburg (and enclaves further west in Germany) were the more important bits of the state. A continuing East Prussian state may well never become part of *Germany, though, and without Brandenburg-Prussia an Austrian-dominated HRE is pretty likely.

Well, I cant believe Im saying this :D , but theoretically Brandenburg itself is east enough. If Prussia is "relieved" of all its territories near the Rhine, then Pauls scenario could happen. A different Post-Napoleonic order maybe... though Prussia going eastwards like that instead of being compensated with western land would more or less require the total collapse of Russia due to some pretty heavy use of handwavium...

As for an alternate 1866, I cant see Austria trying to reform the GC into a NGC-analogue. It wanted to make sure that Prussia could not rival them anymore in Germany, yes, but I think it still wanted to united German state but instead dominance over the smaller German states. And given Austrias situation as a multi-ethnic country that policy made utterly sense (purely Realpolitik-wise) from the beginning...

[Jimbrock]

True, but as soon as the union between Brandenburg and East Prussia was established, the capital was Berlin and Brandenburg (and enclaves further west in Germany) were the more important bits of the state. A continuing East Prussian state may well never become part of *Germany, though, and without Brandenburg-Prussia an Austrian-dominated HRE is pretty likely.
Without Brandenburg-Prussia means a PoD of at least 1577. And with those kind of butterflies, who knows what other power could rise to prevent Austria from dominating Germany?

[Andrelvis]

Austria could very possibly take Silesia from Prussia had they won the war, and perhaps distribute it's Rhine territories to the German states / make them into new states.

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

True, but as soon as the union between Brandenburg and East Prussia was established, the capital was Berlin and Brandenburg (and enclaves further west in Germany) were the more important bits of the state. A continuing East Prussian state may well never become part of *Germany, though, and without Brandenburg-Prussia an Austrian-dominated HRE is pretty likely.

There is always the option of splitting them later. In your scenario France receives some parts of West Germany in exchange for accepting the Austrian victory.
What if Russia does something similar in the East?
The Russian goverment would have certainly disliked if the friendly Prussian state had been incorporated into an union led by the less trustworthy Austria.

Well, I cant believe Im saying this :D , but theoretically Brandenburg itself is east enough. If Prussia is "relieved" of all its territories near the Rhine, then Pauls scenario could happen.

In other words, instead of Southeast Germany (Austria) Northeast Germany end up outside the German nation.

A different Post-Napoleonic order maybe... though Prussia going eastwards like that instead of being compensated with western land would more or less require the total collapse of Russia due to some pretty heavy use of handwavium...

Prussia could always regain a greater part of former Prussian Poland.

As for an alternate 1866, I cant see Austria trying to reform the GC into a NGC-analogue. It wanted to make sure that Prussia could not rival them anymore in Germany, yes, but I think it still wanted to united German state but instead dominance over the smaller German states. And given Austrias situation as a multi-ethnic country that policy made utterly sense (purely Realpolitik-wise) from the beginning...

It is a fact that Austria tried to turn the GC in a closer political union with more commen institutions and not just solidifying their hegemony in Germany.

[Mikestone8]

I can't see how you'd exclude Prussia. "Kleindeutschland" always meant excluding Austria, and Prussia was not a compact block of land attached to large non-German territories like Austria.

Iirc Prussia had excluded itself, by denouncing (ie seceding from) the GC as a preliminary to waging war in it.

All Austria has to do is not agree to its re-admission. If it is cut back to something like its Tilsit borders (only retaining Posen and losing Silesia, instead of the other way round) a reasonably compact Germany can be organised without it.

[pompejus]

Well, I cant believe Im saying this :D , but theoretically Brandenburg itself is east enough. If Prussia is "relieved" of all its territories near the Rhine, then Pauls scenario could happen. A different Post-Napoleonic order maybe... though Prussia going eastwards like that instead of being compensated with western land would more or less require the total collapse of Russia due to some pretty heavy use of handwavium...

You mean during the congress of Vienna (or probably before that for some interesting butterflies you need)? Could be, but who is going to get the Prussian lands in the west? I could see Hanover getting something and maybe the Netherlands if part of the southern Netherlands goes to France or if the house of Orange-Nassau had been a bit more pro-allies during the wars. But you are still left with a pretty large peace of land that noone really has a claim to. Are there any noble houses left without anything?


Anyway, isn't the problem with Austria that they didn't have any interest in a united Germany or at least a united Germany lead by Austria? I doubt the Hungarian, Yugoslavian, Rumanian, Slovakian or Tzech parts of Austria (or Austria-Hungary) want to become part of a German nation. Maybe if Austria lost those parts, but then Austria would become a lot weaker.

[Susano]

T
In other words, instead of Southeast Germany (Austria) Northeast Germany end up outside the German nation.
...outside the German state, but yes :p

Prussia could always regain a greater part of former Prussian Poland.
If it doesnt gain the lands in the west it will demand at the least all of it and then would still have to be compensated for the territories lost in the west it already had previously. No way Russia would agree to that. Of course, theres also the Saxon option, but that also creates problems (namely, what to do with the Saxon royal family)

It is a fact that Austria tried to turn the GC in a closer political union with more commen institutions and not just solidifying their hegemony in Germany.
Really? Hm. How would they have tried to balance that with their Empire, specifically the outer-GC parts?

You mean during the congress of Vienna (or probably before that for some interesting butterflies you need)? Could be, but who is going to get the Prussian lands in the west?
Wittelsbach, and Austria gains Bavaria :D After all, Wittelsbachs had ruled Berg and Jülich for centuries, so that is a strong claim. Or come to think of it, the aforementioned Wettins - historically, they were one of the three contenders for the Cleve-Jülich-Berg inheritance, so they have a claim, too. In fact, IOTL, Prussia offered that deal to the Wettins (obviously before the coal in the Ruhr area was discovered/became important :D - somewhen in the 20s, I think) but they refused.

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Anyway, isn't the problem with Austria that they didn't have any interest in a united Germany or at least a united Germany lead by Austria? I doubt the Hungarian, Yugoslavian, Rumanian, Slovakian or Tzech parts of Austria (or Austria-Hungary) want to become part of a German nation. Maybe if Austria lost those parts, but then Austria would become a lot weaker.

Why do you assume that Austria would try to integrate most of above mentioned ethnic groups into an united German state?
In the 1860s, Austria did not try to enforce the Greater Austrian solution.

[pompejus]

...outside the German state, but yes :p


If it doesnt gain the lands in the west it will demand at the least all of it and then would still have to be compensated for the territories lost in the west it already had previously. No way Russia would agree to that. Of course, theres also the Saxon option, but that also creates problems (namely, what to do with the Saxon royal family)


Really? Hm. How would they have tried to balance that with their Empire, specifically the outer-GC parts?


Wittelsbach, and Austria gains Bavaria :D After all, Wittelsbachs had ruled Berg and Jülich for centuries, so that is a strong claim. Or come to think of it, the aforementioned Wettins - historically, they were one of the three contenders for the Cleve-Jülich-Berg inheritance, so they have a claim, too. In fact, IOTL, Prussia offered that deal to the Wettins (obviously before the coal in the Ruhr area was discovered/became important :D - somewhen in the 20s, I think) but they refused.
Hmm, the endgame of the Napoleonic wars is different. Let's say for fun that Russians stay out of the final defeat of Napoleon or something like that, while Saxony and Prussia help defeat Napoleon, or maybe Russia collapsed during a Napolenic invasion, while Napoleon gets beaten on his way back by Saxony, Prussia, Austria, England and other countries or whatever. Anyway, Saxony keeps the territories they lost to Prussia, while Prussia gains congress Poland, Austria gains Bavaria while the Wittenbachs gain the Rhineland (including Julich-Cleves-Mark-Berg). We give Westphalia to Hannover, while Hannover loses East-Frisia and the coridor to it to the Netherlands. The Netherlands (or the Orange-Nassaus lose Luxembourg and Liege to the Wittelsbach (and maybe some other parts of Belgium to France or something like that).

Why do you assume that Austria would try to integrate most of above mentioned ethnic groups into an united German state?
In the 1860s, Austria did not try to enforce the Greater Austrian solution.

You mean some sort of personal union between Germany (ruled by the Austrian royal family) and Hungary?

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

...outside the German state, but yes :p

Whatever.

If it doesnt gain the lands in the west it will demand at the least all of it and then would still have to be compensated for the territories lost in the west it already had previously. No way Russia would agree to that. Of course, theres also the Saxon option, but that also creates problems (namely, what to do with the Saxon royal family)

The Russian share of the Polish pie depends on the Russian influence and the support of other major powers.
IOTL Congress Poland was possible because the Prussian king sticked to Alexander. If he has sided with the other great powers, Prussia could have recieved a greater share of Poland.

Really? Hm. How would they have tried to balance that with their Empire, specifically the outer-GC parts?

Strengthening the federal structure of the GC without pushing (too much) for an united German state (at least not initialy).

I think that an Austrian-led German unification would be an evolutionary development in contrast to the rather sudden Prussian-led unification.

[Dan1988]

Prussia-less Germany would have been realistic if the Prussia state had been reduced to the peripherial, semi-Polish northeastern corner of its old territory (Posen, Eastern- and Western Prussia). These provinces were not even part of the German Confederation except for three years.

Even more so if the Prussian state retained the usage of the (Old) Prussian language (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Prussian_language) instead of German.

[Brady Kj]

Now here's an unrelated but similar idea. Could there be a buffer state separating the entire border between Germany and France by World War II without ASB?

[Janprimus]

...outside the German state, but yes :p


If it doesnt gain the lands in the west it will demand at the least all of it and then would still have to be compensated for the territories lost in the west it already had previously. No way Russia would agree to that. Of course, theres also the Saxon option, but that also creates problems (namely, what to do with the Saxon royal family)


Really? Hm. How would they have tried to balance that with their Empire, specifically the outer-GC parts?


Wittelsbach, and Austria gains Bavaria :D After all, Wittelsbachs had ruled Berg and Jülich for centuries, so that is a strong claim. Or come to think of it, the aforementioned Wettins - historically, they were one of the three contenders for the Cleve-Jülich-Berg inheritance, so they have a claim, too. In fact, IOTL, Prussia offered that deal to the Wettins (obviously before the coal in the Ruhr area was discovered/became important :D - somewhen in the 20s, I think) but they refused.

The Wettin option IMHO is also interesting... Prussia gains the entire (territory of the) kingdom of Saxony and the Wettins are compensated with the Rhineland and (at least) a part of Westphalia (which IMHO should also be given to the Wittelsbachs in the Wittelsbach option (if the Wittelsbach give up Bavaria)).
One remaining question is how to name this kingdom (whether it is given to the Wettins or the Wittelsbachs; since kingdom of Westphalia* probably is a bit too Napoleonic).

[Mikestone8]

The Wettin option IMHO is also interesting... Prussia gains the entire (territory of the) kingdom of Saxony and the Wettins are compensated with the Rhineland and (at least) a part of Westphalia (which IMHO should also be given to the Wittelsbachs in the Wittelsbach option (if the Wittelsbach give up Bavaria)).

Or possibly the KoS gets Westphalia, while the Rhineland (at lest as far as the Moselle) goes to the King of the Netherlands (istr a map giving this as one ot the proposed boundaries for the KotN). This has some interesting butterflies, since if the Catholic Rhinelanders join in the Belgian revolt, we probably get a "Belgium" extending all the way to the Rhine, and having three communities, Walloons, Flemings and Germans, rather than two.



One remaining question is how to name this kingdom (whether it is given to the Wettins or the Wittelsbachs; since kingdom of Westphalia* probably is a bit too Napoleonic).


"Austrasia" or "Lower Lotharingia" strike me as possibilities. Alternatively, it might just be the Kingdom of "Aachen" or "Cologne" depending where its capital city was. Or perhaps its king might want to call it "Lower Saxony" for sentimental reasons.

[Susano]

Except no. Theres no reason to give that land to the United Netherlands, who already are amply supplied with the Southern Netherlands. Also, Westphalia would be a joke as a compensation for Saxony. If at all the Wettins would have to get the Rhineland, but better yet both part. Though, actually, if the Wettins gain the Rhineland, then Westphalia can stay Prussian. This encompasses nearly all old Prussian territories in the west anyways (Mark, Minden, Ravenstein, Lingen, Tecklenburg). Give it the Emsland and East Frisia still for a nice sea access and voila... of course this probably means Hannover keeps Lauenburg, which in turn means Denmark keeps (formerly) Swedish Pommerania... Somebody should tell Valdemar to have a look, its turning into one of those Congress threads again :D

[Valdemar II]

Except no. Theres no reason to give that land to the United Netherlands, who already are amply supplied with the Southern Netherlands. Also, Westphalia would be a joke as a compensation for Saxony. If at all the Wettins would have to get the Rhineland, but better yet both part. Though, actually, if the Wettins gain the Rhineland, then Westphalia can stay Prussian. This encompasses nearly all old Prussian territories in the west anyways (Mark, Minden, Ravenstein, Lingen, Tecklenburg). Give it the Emsland and East Frisia still for a nice sea access and voila... of course this probably means Hannover keeps Lauenburg, which in turn means Denmark keeps (formerly) Swedish Pommerania... Somebody should tell Valdemar to have a look, its turning into one of those Congress threads again :D

Yes but the idea of Congress Poland resplit between Prussia and Austria instead of given to Russia has it own charm. Maybe if we mix it with Prussia gain the same territories from Saxony as it gained in OTL (or just gain OTL Westphalen and Transrhine North Rhine). Of course it beg the question whom get the Rhineland and Belgium, I think if we put Russia in a weaker position Austria need to be stronger, but here's the problem that they really don't want it*. But giving it to Netherlands are too much, but we still need a strong state in the area, to serve to stop France. Maybe the British could support the recreation of a closer German Confederation against Austria keeping the the Austrian Netherland and gaining the Rhineland (Bavaria would of course gain Pfalz), and Italian Venedig reestablish as independent state.

Political such a world would look quite different, we would see a Austrian-British-minor German states alliance against a Russian-France-Bavarian(-Prussian?) one. In many way it would recreate the dynamic of the early 18th century, which was likely was why Austria was so hostile to it. But it has the potential to result in German unification lead by Austria instead of Prussia, and Prussia with it vast Polish territories may chooce to stay out of the unification (if Prussia and Bavaria are defeated in a internal German war, I could see Westphalen, Pfalz and Bavaria annexed by Austria, giving them control over the majority of German territories). Of course with such a early POD the Schleswig Wars likely stay a internal Danish matter, without Prussia being able to play the German nationalism card and any crisis in Danish royal succesion butterflied away. So a this alternative Kleindeutschland will likely lack Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, most of Brandenburg and Sachsen-Anhalt and maybe Hamburg, but include Belgium, Limburg, Luxemburg, Czechia, Austria and Slovenia (with the rest of the Habsburg possesion being in personal union with Germany)

Not a bad trade.

*For good reason the Austrian Netherland was never anything but trouble for Austria.

[Susano]

Yes but the idea of Congress Poland resplit between Prussia and Austria instead of given to Russia has it own charm.
All of Congress Poland split between the two? As said, that would require a Russian collapse. Thats just unlikely. And Prussia simply getting "some more of Poland" is insufficient. Saxony and enlargened Westphalia should do the trick, though. If we want an independant Saxony, then things get tricky...

Maybe the British could support the recreation of a closer German Confederation against Austria keeping the the Austrian Netherland and gaining the Rhineland (Bavaria would of course gain Pfalz), and Italian Venedig reestablish as independent state.
Yeah, as you said, Austria does not want that. That just wont come through.

Of course with such a early POD the Schleswig Wars likely stay a internal Danish matter, without Prussia being able to play the German nationalism card and any crisis in Danish royal succesion butterflied away.
The latter yes. But Denmark might still try something silly, and lets remember Prussia and Austria IOTL were not even the first to appear at the scene, that were Hannover and Saxony. So even if it isnt Prussia intervening, some German States will. Or maybe the GC even declares the Bundeskrieg...

[Janprimus]

Or possibly the KoS gets Westphalia, while the Rhineland (at lest as far as the Moselle) goes to the King of the Netherlands (istr a map giving this as one ot the proposed boundaries for the KotN). This has some interesting butterflies, since if the Catholic Rhinelanders join in the Belgian revolt, we probably get a "Belgium" extending all the way to the Rhine, and having three communities, Walloons, Flemings and Germans, rather than two.





"Austrasia" or "Lower Lotharingia" strike me as possibilities. Alternatively, it might just be the Kingdom of "Aachen" or "Cologne" depending where its capital city was. Or perhaps its king might want to call it "Lower Saxony" for sentimental reasons.

The kingdom of the Netherlands might end up with some territories ((parts of) Cleves, the Rhineland), but it already got a lot with the Southern Netherlands, so this isn't going to be much and the most likely outcome would be similar to the OTL 1815 Dutch Borders.

Or know that I think of it, the title of Saxony actually had migrated to the east, Westphalia was a part of the (historic) stem duchy of Saxony; so they just as well could have called their new kingdom the kingdom of Saxony. Or to put it differently, the kingdom of Saxony never ceases to exist, but the kingdom of Saxony is given a different territory; Prussia gets the entire before the congress of Vienna territory of the kingdom of Saxony (most of 13 (green and yellow) on the map) and the king of Saxony is compensated with (all of or at least most of) the Rhineland (12) and Westphalia (16) (the OTL post congress of Vienna Prussian provinces). Perhaps the king of Saxony is only punished with this territory swap and so much with an actual loss of territory, since this kingdom will (just as the kingdom of the United* Netherlands (*= never a part of the official name of the kingdom)) have to act as a buffer state against French aggression. Although some small part of the territory could be given to neighbouring states.

In the case of the Wittelsbach option the king of Bavaria probably would have to (be forced to) trade Bavaria (which under such a scenario would become Austrian), with the exception of the Bavarian Palatinate** (this part of the OTL kingdom of Bavaria is separate from the rest of Bavaria and it borders the Rhineland), for the (entire) Rhineland and Westphalia.
(**= not the Upper Palatinate)
(Found on Wikipedia)

[Andrelvis]

All of Congress Poland split between the two? As said, that would require a Russian collapse. Thats just unlikely.


Indeed, but they can never lose those territories so that Napoleon can create his grand duchy of Warsaw in the first place.