Newfoundland joins US in 1948

[acgoldis]

From a recent article in the Boston Globe:

"As recently as the 1940s, Newfoundland was a self-governing British dominion completely independent of Canada. When it became clear that Newfoundland would be better off joining a larger nation, most Newfoundlanders began looking south. They wanted to attach themselves to the United States, not Canada.

Polls taken in 1947 report that 80 percent of Newfoundland's population wanted to become Americans. After all, if you're going to join a club, why not go with the most powerful group on earth? Plus, Newfoundland's proximity and economic ties to New England made it a logical candidate to become the 49th state. "

Suppose Newfoundland joins the US in 1948. What happens next? Do the Maritime Provinces come with it? Does Quebec become independent and start a domino effect among the Canadian provinces?

ACG

[RogueBeaver]

Attlee and Mackenzie King would not let that happen under any circumstances. They would both intervene with Truman, and no, Quebec would not become independent. The Quebec independence movement did not exist in the 1940s. Maurice Duplessis was a fervent nationalist, but he was a committed federalist who called the notion of Quebec separatism "an unspeakable crime".

[The Kiat]

They better take it up with Congress, since they get to decide if somebody wants to join the Union. Truman could veto but Congress could override. The big question is; do we want them? Would Newfoundland make America greater?

[RogueBeaver]

You wouldn't want Newfoundland: it's the poorest province in Canada and until the discovery of offshore oil, the economy was largely dependent on federal subsidies. The reason they reintroduced direct UK rule in 1934 and declined the independence option in 1949 is because they were broke. Newfoundland would be a drag on the US economy.

[Blair152]

You wouldn't want Newfoundland: it's the poorest province in Canada and until the discovery of offshore oil, the economy was largely dependent on federal subsidies. The reason they reintroduced direct UK rule in 1934 and declined the independence option in 1949 is because they were broke. Newfoundland would be a drag on the US economy.
Don't forget the Puerto Rico question. Puerto Rico was offered three choices
in several referenda. They were statehood, independence, or free association
with the United States. Every time, Puerto Ricans have chosen free association with the United States. Newfoundlanders, if offered the same three choices, would probably choose the third option, than the first or second.

[Dave Howery]

You wouldn't want Newfoundland: it's the poorest province in Canada and until the discovery of offshore oil, the economy was largely dependent on federal subsidies. The reason they reintroduced direct UK rule in 1934 and declined the independence option in 1949 is because they were broke. Newfoundland would be a drag on the US economy.

how big was Newfoundland's population at the time? If not too high, then we would certainly take it... an nearby (although not adjacent) landmass that is ripe for heavy settlement would be great. If the population is large and 20% of the population didn't want to join the US, chances are we'd have balked at taking it...

[Georgepatton]

how big was Newfoundland's population at the time? If not too high, then we would certainly take it... an nearby (although not adjacent) landmass that is ripe for heavy settlement would be great. If the population is large and 20% of the population didn't want to join the US, chances are we'd have balked at taking it...

In 1951, the population was about 360,000. Can't find stats earlier than that.

[Osakadave]

You wouldn't want Newfoundland: it's the poorest province in Canada and until the discovery of offshore oil, the economy was largely dependent on federal subsidies. The reason they reintroduced direct UK rule in 1934 and declined the independence option in 1949 is because they were broke. Newfoundland would be a drag on the US economy.

Looking up those oilfields, they're too far offshore for 40s tech, if I understand rightly. Maybe with a geological POD bringing them closer in where they could be exploited in the late 40s like the Gulf of Mexico?

[RogueBeaver]

IOTL there were only 3 choices on the referendum ballot: independence, Confederation or an extension of British rule through the Commission of Government that had ran Newfoundland since 1934. There were not even enough pro-Union supporters to get the option on the ballot, let alone muster 50%. Independence is simply economically unviable, and the CoG would not run much longer, though it might gain a new lease on life if Churchill wins the 1950 election. Even that would last no later than the early 1960s, maximum. Confederation is the only workable option in the medium and long term.

[Iori]

Attlee and Mackenzie King would not let that happen under any circumstances. They would both intervene with Truman,


When was what Canada wanted ever affected any of America's decisions, honestly, if we wanted it we'd just tell them where they could stick it, I mean really, Canada(for obvious reasons) nor Great Britain (we're propping them up financially) were really in positions to try and tell us what to do.

That all said it'd be interesting if this happened but some compromise was reached where Newfoundland Island and what is now Labrador voted seperately, perhaps leading to Labrador joining Confederation and Newfoundland itself becoming an American state.

[Jello_Biafra]

The only way I can see America being willing to take Newfoundland would require the US government knowing about the offshore oil fields (possible), and knowing that tech could be developed within a reasonable timeframe to make them exploitable (more dubious).

But if Britain or Canada knows of the latter, the deal is obviously going to be off.

[Derek Jackson]

I have a memory of reading that Newfoundland more or less went bankrupt in the early 30s and became more of a colony than a dominion. Am I right?

I think if the US really wanted Newfoundland Britain would have acquiessed.

Does Newfoundland give the 2000 election to Gore if that happened.

[Georgepatton]

I have a memory of reading that Newfoundland more or less went bankrupt in the early 30s and became more of a colony than a dominion. Am I right?

I think if the US really wanted Newfoundland Britain would have acquiessed.

Does Newfoundland give the 2000 election to Gore if that happened.

I would think that butterflies would argue against Gore even running in the 2000 election, much less winning.

[RogueBeaver]

Iori: the Newfoundlanders didn't want to join the US. The few hundred that did eventually merged into the pro-independence movement by the second referendum (between independence and Confederation), which was an economic non-starter.

[Dan1988]

IOTL there were only 3 choices on the referendum ballot: independence, Confederation or an extension of British rule through the Commission of Government that had ran Newfoundland since 1934.

Wrong - the options on the ballot, IIRC, did have association with the US as an option on the first ballot, but it had a poor showing that it was not repeated on the second ballot. However, assuming you're right, even with the first ballot, independence had a stronger showing than Confederation, which is a bit understandable in the context of domestic politics. Say, on the first ballot, independence becomes the preferred option - i.e. independence winning a majority in the first ballot, followed by NF adopting the Statute of Westminster, and then some. Things could be interesting from there, even if independence was supposedly "economically unviable" - in particular, Smallwood is now out of a job and forced to return to working in broadcasting as the "Barrelman".

Oh, and:

You wouldn't want Newfoundland: it's the poorest province in Canada and until the discovery of offshore oil, the economy was largely dependent on federal subsidies. The reason they reintroduced direct UK rule in 1934 and declined the independence option in 1949 is because they were broke. Newfoundland would be a drag on the US economy.

Alaska and Hawai'i, for the most part, were/are kept alive by means of subsidies, along with other things. Assuming Newfoundland became part of the US, the US would make the most of it, even without oil. Say, for example, since Newfoundland is in a strategic location, the military decides to start building bases like crazy - in addition to the OTL existing one at Happy Valley-Goose Bay, the US decides to build bases at Corner Brook and St. John's (the latter also doubling as a civilian airport) - which may make the AFRTS one of Newfoundland's largest TV networks, alongside the publicly-owned Broadcasting Corporation of Newfoundland, and not the Big Three. :cool::D Along with Newfoundland's "traditional industries", in both the cases of a "independent Newfoundland" scenario and a "Newfoundland as 49th state" scenario, the government at St. John's would try to diversify the economy, and defence would be a start. You, in particular, should be revelling in the possibility of the main centre-right party at the time, the United Newfoundland Party, being able to run the country for a good part of Newfoundland's history, either in an independent Newfoundland or as part of the US.

---

To get to the OP, let's say that somehow the pro-Union supporters managed to get that option on the ballot, as much of a minority as the hardcore pro-Union supporters are. If you take Joey Smallwood out of the picture, then Confederation gets a lower profile than OTL, which greatly helps both the pro-independence and pro-Union sides.

Politically, the UK didn't want to extend the Commission of Government, and politically (within Newfoundland) Confederation was also a non-starter - the politicos preferred a maintenance of the CoG or a restoration of independence. Now, to make a healthier case for an independent Newfoundland requires a WW1 POD where the annihilation of the Newfoundland Regiment at Beaumont Hamel does not occur, as well as having Newfoundland adopt the Statute of Westminster as early as possible. For a Newfoundland-as-US-state scenario requires the pro-Union side to be a bit more out in the open than OTL, gaining more members than OTL in the process. A tall order, yes.

However, the key to this is getting Joey Smallwood to not advocate Confederation or have him advocate either independence (which makes sense, considering that much of the content of his "Barrelman" radio programme consisted mainly of NF folklore) or an association with the US. Either way, Confederation would not get an advocate in Smallwood with this POD, which means that it gets a low profile, which means that Confederation would not get on the ballot - if at all - because of a very low level of support, which leaves the door wide open for anything other than extending the CoG to win the first ballot.

[Dan1988]

That all said it'd be interesting if this happened but some compromise was reached where Newfoundland Island and what is now Labrador voted seperately, perhaps leading to Labrador joining Confederation and Newfoundland itself becoming an American state.

That compromise would be a non-starter - Labrador comes along with Newfoundland as part of the 'package'.

[NomadicSky]

If this was allowed what about the Quebec Labrador border? Might that come back into question?

Canada would look a bit encircled on maps...actually it really would be in a way the US would have a second "Alaska".

[Larrikin]

When has what Canada wanted ever affected any of America's decisions, honestly, if we wanted it we'd just tell the, where they could stick it, I mean really, Canada(for obvious reasons) nor Great Britain (we're propping them up financially) were really in positions to try and tell us what to do.

That all said it'd be interesting if this happened but some compromise was reached where Newfoundland Island and what is now Labrador voted seperately, perhaps leading to Labrador joining Confederation and Newfoundland itself becoming an American state.

"Don't it make my White House, don't it make my White House, don't it make my White House Black"

[Dan1988]

If this was allowed what about the Quebec Labrador border? Might that come back into question?

Considering that it was settled by the JCPC in 1927 and that Québec's case was a bit faulty anyway, I doubt it, in both cases of an independent Newfoundland or NF as a US state.


Canada would look a bit encircled on maps...actually it really would be in a way the US would have a second "Alaska".

Hmm, I wonder if Canada would get a deal on St.-Pierre-et-Miquelon from the French. ;)

[Wet Coast]

Hmm, I wonder if Canada would get a deal on St.-Pierre-et-Miquelon from the French. ;)

We should have just kept them after WWII, "For services rendered" :D

[zoomar]

This is 1948. How or why on earth would Britain allow Newfoundland become part of the US even if Newfoundlanders wanted it? How or why on earth would the USA presuppose to interfere in the internal workings of the British Empire - the USA's closest ally - (it still was an empire then, wasn't it) or Commonwealth to absorb Newfoundland? The idea sounds neat, but I think it would be politically impossible.

[Dan1988]

We should have just kept them after WWII, "For services rendered" :D

You know, I like that idea. :cool:

[Whanztastic]

Would a possible motivation be for the US to buy the territory as a northern bomber base/radar station/sub base against the Ruskies? Maybe if Iceland/Greenland/Canada aren't so helpful in the Cold War...

[Iori]

Iori: the Newfoundlanders didn't want to join the US. The few hundred that did eventually merged into the pro-independence movement by the second referendum (between independence and Confederation), which was an economic non-starter.

Perhaps so, but I'm just saying, if we'd wanted it it would'nt really have mattered what Britain Canada or the Newfies themselves thought.


"Don't it make my White House, don't it make my White House, don't it make my White House Black"

I'm sorry but I don't get the reference.

[RogueBeaver]

Iori: let's stay out of ASB territory, shall we.

[Iori]

Iori: let's stay out of ASB territory, shall we.

Odder things, involving the U.S., have happened.

I mean if we can even get several thousand Sicilians petitioning for Statehood after the war no reason we can't get Newfoundland. :p

[kessock]

One POD would be Newfoundland traded for lend-lease in 1940. As it was, Goose Bay, Stephenville, Argentia and Fort Pepperrell near St John's were part of the leased bases agreement. A more desperate Britain and a more forward looking cold-blooded US could be the difference.

[RogueBeaver]

I doubt Churchill will give up an inch of UK territory. IOTL he was not amused when FDR nagged him about India among other things. All three leaders, Churchill, King and FDR were longstanding friends dating back over 15+ years prior to wartime and would not curbstomp each other in this way. It's ASB: FDR would not do this, nor would Truman or Dewey. It would simply not enter their minds.

[Dan1988]

I doubt Churchill will give up an inch of UK territory. IOTL he was not amused when FDR nagged him about India among other things. All three leaders, Churchill, King and FDR were longstanding friends dating back over 15+ years prior to wartime and would not curbstomp each other in this way. It's ASB: FDR would not do this, nor would Truman or Dewey. It would simply not enter their minds.

I have to agree with Iori on one bit - stranger things have happened when it comes to the US gaining territory, so it may not be ASB. Particularly if Smallwood does not back Confederation at all (which would mean that Confederation would be a non-starter in both St. John's and Newfoundland in general to begin with, as in OTL but even more so), which is the key POD.

[usertron2020]

I doubt Churchill will give up an inch of UK territory. IOTL he was not amused when FDR nagged him about India among other things. All three leaders, Churchill, King and FDR were longstanding friends dating back over 15+ years prior to wartime and would not curbstomp each other in this way. It's ASB: FDR would not do this, nor would Truman or Dewey. It would simply not enter their minds.
I'm with RogueBeaver all the way here, it's ASB. Totally. After all, the only US President who WOULD try to force the issue was, in 1948, only two years old!:D:p

[RogueBeaver]

No OTL POTUS was born in '42.

[Georgepatton]

No OTL POTUS was born in '42.

Indeed. Bush and Clinton were both 2 years old, and the only other ones close are 20 years off.

[Iori]

No OTL POTUS was born in '42.

Indeed. Bush and Clinton were both 2 years old, and the only other ones close are 20 years off.

Maybe hes writing an expose about how one (or more) of them are lying about their age.

Guess what, I'm 50 today!
But you were 50 last year, and the year before that..

:p

[usertron2020]

No OTL POTUS was born in '42.
Geez! Even when people agree with you you gotta make an argument out of of it!:( I corrected it. What do you think you are? A double-digit numbered feline?:D:p

[usertron2020]

Maybe hes writing an expose about how one (or more) of them are lying about their age.

Guess what, I'm 50 today!
But you were 50 last year, and the year before that..

:p
As a matter of fact, there was an expose in 1980. The expose revealed that Ronald Reagan had lied about his age. He was ninety four:eek:. Unfortunately, the expose was reported on NBC's Weekend Update, and the Committee to Elect Reagan issued a staunch denial.:mad: NBC failed to back up their own reportage, and quickly folded.:p

[Georgepatton]

Geez! Even when people agree with you you gotta make an argument out of of it!:( I corrected it. What do you think you are? A double-digit numbered feline?:D:p

And why exactly would Clinton try to yank Newfoundland from Canada?

[usertron2020]

And why exactly would Clinton try to yank Newfoundland from Canada?
Ewe no hoo eye mean!

[Timmy811]

Here's the article referenced in the OP.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/05/02/altered_states/

[Georgepatton]

Ewe no hoo eye mean!

Oh, then you must mean George Bush.

I see.

And the backing for your assertion that Dubya would press Canada to surrender a province is...?

[Coyote Knight]

Oh, then you must mean George Bush.

I see.

And the backing for your assertion that Dubya would press Canada to surrender a province is...?

I'm not sure, unless it's about that joke involving Dubya and Newfies.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I'm not sure, unless it's about that joke involving Dubya and Newfies.
Dubya jokes, I've heard; Newfie jokes, boy I've heard. One that involves both!?

[PhilKearny]

Dubya was in the Oval Office wondering which country Cheney would want to invade next, when his telephone rang.

'Hallo, President Bush' a heavily accented voice said. This is Archie, up 'ere at the Harp Seal Pub in Badger's Cove, Newfoundland, Canada eh? I am callin' to tells ya dat we are officially declaring war on you eh!'

'Well, Mr. Archie,' Dubya replied, 'This is important news. How big's yer army?'

'Right now,' said Archie, after a moment for calculation, 'there is myself, me cousin Harold, me next-door-neighbor Mick, and the whole dart team from the pub. That makes eight!'

Dubya paused, the choked out 'Gotta tell you I got one million in my army waiting to move on my command.'

'Holy jeez,' said Archie. 'I'll have ta call ya back!'

Sure enough, the next day, Archie called again. 'Mr. Bush, the war is still on! We have managed to acquire some mechanized equipment!'

'What sorta equipment ya' got there, Archie?', Dubya asked.

'Well sir, we have two combines, a bulldozer, and Harry's farm tractor.'

Dubya stuttered, 'Now, lissen, Archie, I gotta ya' tell you that I have 16,000 tanks and 14,000 armoured personnel carriers. Also, I've increased my army to one and a half million since we last spoke.'

'Lard T'underin' Jaysus, bye', said Archie, 'I'll be getting back to ya.'

Sure enough, Archie rang again the next day. 'President Bush, the war is still on! We have managed to git ourselves airborne! We up an' modified Harrigan's ultra-light wit a couple of shotguns in the cockpit, and four byes from the Legion have joined us as well!'

Dubya paused, he then cleared his throat. 'I must tell you Archie that I have 10,000 bombers and 20,000 fighter planes. My military complex is surrounded by laser-guided, surface-to-air missile sites. And since we last spoke, I've increased my army to TWO MILLION!'

'Jeysus, Mary and Joseph,' said Archie,'I'll have ta call youse back.'

Sure enough, Archie called again the next day. 'President Bush! I am sorry to have to tell you dat we have had to call off dis 'ere war.'

'Sorry to hear that' said Dubya. 'Why the sudden change of heart?'

'Well, sir,' said Archie, 'we've all sat ourselves down and had a long chat over a bunch of pints, and come to realize dat dere's no way we can feed two million prisoners.'