WI Roderic and Achila REALLY ally themselves against islamic invasion

[LSCatilina]

I know this part of history is most mythic or unhistoric but

What if the partition of Visigothic Kingdom was made more peacfully, due to church influence?

Could be possible that :
-Al-Tariq's army is defeated in 711, but Roderic still die.
-New, stronger, islamic armies are victorious in 712, capturing all the middle of Hispania, including Toledo, but without Luisitania (not really defended yet), Murcia, Iberia and Asturia (much well taken by visigothic lords as Theodomir, Pelagius, Roderic's successor, Achila)
-New islamic expeditions in 713, taking Luisitania, Murcia, with and advence unil Ebro and Asturies, and divinding the kingdom between Achila and Pelasgius?

It's TL, would involve later a lesser role for Carlos-Magnus in Hispania, but i would want if this first part for an ATL is credible, or usable

[The Professor]

Hmmm, so a slower advance of the Islamic army?
With the bonus that Tarrago survives.
Likely Emirate of Cordoba still established but any Caliphate will need greater African support.
Would the Reconquista still occur? Was it largely a consequence of establishing the Spanish March?

[LSCatilina]

In my mind, the advance of islamo-berber army is slower and made by steps (711 : fail, 712 : ok, 713 : ok for easy lands, but with an organized defense fail, 720's : tentative of and advance on Aquitania, with help of visigothic lords failed by other visigoth with franks)
Visighoth will keep all the Asturians and Galicians highlands, Cantabria, Vasconia (in the 740), Iberia (not very well taken, and change of alliegance quite often), Septimania.

The VK would probably split, for defenses and interest reasons, in two kingdoms, western and eastern.

With Carlos-Magnus, the "eastern" take the role of Spanish March, allowing the emperor to go further in Italia.

For Al-Andalus, the length of conquest, and a more stronger christian threat in North make more stable taifas in Hispania (ethnic bases), but Emirate, and Califate, in Al-Andalus is more difficult to establish or keep.
So, Reconquista might occurs, with the help of Aquitanian and Auvergne nobles, connected with Hispanians kings (much like Tolosa county with Aragon), but this connexion + the stability of muslims states allow maybe the survival of Grenada-likes states.

An berber and, chiite help is more useful to increase islamic power, but it would probably destroy statu-quo in Al-Andalus, allowing a more powerful Reconquista at last. Of course, africans power, or wannabe power wouldnt care to that.

An another obstacle to Reconquista would be that VK sucessor states would maybe want to expand in north, with a Frank Kingdom crisis, than more stables taifas

[MNP]

I think strong resistance is going to prevent Al-Andalus. Muslims constituted no more than 1/3 of the population until Abd ar-Rahman III converted them all, but they were organized and the Visigoths weren't.

I think the easiest fruit would be Portugal up to Coimbra, Toledo and Valencia with holes in the SE where vassals like Tudimir hold out as they did IOTL but are more important.

So would they over-run the Ebro or not?

[LSCatilina]

In fact, it wouldn't be a strong resistance, just stronger than OTL.
Because the taifas organize themselves on ethnic (northen/southern arabians, berbers), it would prevent some internal wars.
An one Al-Andalus state would be more decentralised and more nominal.

I made a quick map on the situation
http://i.imgur.com/lPgJj.png
Red = 711 Tariq's expedition
Dark Red = 712 Musa Expedition -> points : limits of muslim expension in 712
Pink = 713 expeditions => pink line : border between Visigothic Kingdom and Islamic lands
Theodomir (Tudmir) defeacts. Banu Quasim didn't (well, not yet)

In 720, it's quite probable that an expedition, with help of visigothic and aquitan lords, invade Iberia and Aquitania, taking Ebro (due to a changment of alligence to the local lords), maybe the coastal zone until Narbona, but this expedition would be beaten sooner than Poitiers, due to the more lands to occupe, a more organized hispanian army, which serves the franks to better counter-attack.

Ebro would likely be retaken by visighoth during 740

The Islamic conquest whould be more due to treachery, defection of high visigothic lords, dynamism of islamic armies and better organization, than real failures of visigothic commendment, in the strategic question.
Of course, "gothic disease", internal fights and a certain passivity doesn't help

[MNP]

Okay, I see what you're saying now. The only bit I don't follow is the west. I don't see how Lisbon and Portocale/Portugal survived.

The thing with ethnic divisions is that there so few Arabs and so many Berbers in the conquering force. So I'm not sure there's even support for anything but a minor Arab taifa let alone Syrian and Yemeni taifas. Yet at this point the Arabs had all the administration and ruling skill. I THINK the Berbers are mostly Masmuda in the initial wave with Miknasa later in the south but it might be the other way around. Argh, it's a year since I did the preliminary research on this.

Hmm, so could you go more into detail on how that's accomplished? I'd like to know more.

[The Professor]

Okay, I see what you're saying now. The only bit I don't follow is the west. I don't see how Lisbon and Portocale/Portugal survived.

The thing with ethnic divisions is that there so few Arabs and so many Berbers in the conquering force. So I'm not sure there's even support for anything but a minor Arab taifa let alone Syrian and Yemeni taifas. Yet at this point the Arabs had all the administration and ruling skill. I THINK the Berbers are mostly Masmuda in the initial wave with Miknasa later in the south but it might be the other way around. Argh, it's a year since I did the preliminary research on this.

Hmm, so could you go more into detail on how that's accomplished? I'd like to know more.

Judging by the map the dashed pink line in the North represents the boundary between the Islamic and the Suebic-to-Visigothic lands.
Basically OTL with a more southerly border and no successful invasion of Tarrago thus no invasion of Septimania and Aquitaine.
So the Spanish March remains independently Gothic though it may drift into vassal status of Francia/Aquitaine or Al-Andalus.

[LSCatilina]

Lisbon and Portocale doesn't fall in 712, because Pelasge (Roderic sucessor) is more organized and can use a fragile and fragmented alliance with other visigothic lords, but the area fall in 713, cause it's highly indefendable, critically after the ralliment of Theodomir/Tudmir to califate.

It's because they're both a good number of AND Beduine arabs AND Yemenite arabs with Berber that the 740 troubles in OTL occurs. Of course, it make compromises between islamic forces more necessaries against stronger christian states (VK divides in 2 parts), of course it needs more knowledge to apply this in ATL, but it's because I post this pre-TL here^^

to resume

710's : Roderic and Achila ally themselves more, and the other Visigothic Lords who help Tariq are fewer and doubtfuler regarding this.
Reason? - More church power to decrease the problem of "gothic disease" and influence to calm the situation.

711 : Tariq came and loose Battle of Guadalete. Roderic still die during the battle and Pelasge succed to him
Reason? - Achila forces still keep fighting
Islamic forces still keep a part of Betic

712-713 : Ist expedition of Musa : he takes all central Hispania, including Toledo. Theodomir keeps Murcia, Achila Iberia and Septimania, Pelasge Luisitania and Highlands, minor lords keep the rest.
Reason? - The accord between Achila and Roderic was fragile (at best) and after the death of this, a certain desorganisation due to deafeat, an lower influence of church, Visigoths didn't have a real unic strategy, defendic their own.

713-714 : II expedition of Musa (in really many muslims commanders) : taking of Luisitania, Murcia (due to Tudmir defection) and Carthagensis.
Pelasge still own Galicia, Asturias and Cantabria, Achila Iberia, Septimania and Vasconia.

720's : expedition to plunder and if possible keep, Iberia, Septimania, Aquitania occurs. Achila is defeated and die, but Pelasge keep Vasconia for his sucessors, and Islamic expedition don't take Narbo, but advance in Frankish Kingdom. Charles Martel make Plum-Pudding of it near Tolosa.
Califate still keep Southern Septimania for 2 years, Iberia for 5-10 (for the last part) years.

730's : separation of VK is effective : a western part is Kingdom of Ovideo, an eastern, Kingdom of Narbo. In the middle, but doesn't separate the parts, an independent part : County of Pampelune, merging visigothic and pyreneans rulers. This part will be disputated by the two kingdoms until a resolution, centuries later, in "let's share it"

740's : due to southern troble, visigoths retake Iberia and southern Galicia.

---> More after

Al-Mansur takes Iberia, southern Asturians and Galicia.

Carlos-Magnus, with council of the church, takes the parts of al-mansur conquest which didn't retaken by visigoths. Kingdom of Narbo serves as Spanish March, Kingdom of Ovideo as client state. It makes possible to Carlos-Magnus to expand his empire in the Southern Italy, making reltions with Byzance worse. Maybe Basileos didn't recognize Carlos-Magnus as emperor.

in 843-like event, three parts are : Francia, Germania, Italia.

[LSCatilina]

In Fact, i think the 740-890 part would be a quasi statu-quo, each side being exhausted, trying to build bases, to organize themselves

So...Do you think all this quick timeline is totally ASB, just a part of it, or "well, you can go with this to do a OTL"?

[MNP]

The only thing I'm not sure on (sorry) is your references to "Iberia." What do you mean by "Iberia"? Where is "Iberia" at this time? Also what about Duke Eudes of Gascony/Aquitaine?

I think this timeline can work for the record. So keep it up, I'm just trying to get clear on it myself. Thanks for your patience.

[LSCatilina]

Well, Iberia is the region of Ebro rivier, by over-abuse, it serves to designes all Hispania

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iberian_Peninsula#Etymology

Oops, i've made a mistake and merge Eudes and Charles Martel personas...Shame on me

Well.
For Eudes pf Aquitania...mmm...Yes, i will modifiy like this

Because Islamic expeditions to Gaul can't reach so much territories, because Visigothic resistence, Eudes serves as Charles-Martel of this ATL.
He keeps a stronger autonomy towards Neustria and Austrasia, but Pepin would likely regain a more complete suzerainety on Eudes sons.

Okay, so Battle of Bordeaux could be win, if the Al-Andalus forces are not so strong (because of a Visigothic restience in east and threat in west, and Gaul of early 700 could be that

http://i.imgur.com/QmQyY.jpg
(Dark Red = Expedition of 720, defeat at Narbona and Tolosa)
(Light Brown = Expedition of 725, dafeat at Tolosa, islamic expedition don't ass trough septimania, just plunder a little, "en passant")
(Red = expediton of 728 = Ravaging Aquitainia, defeat at Bordeaux, frankish badassing of Charles Martel on Rhone River)
Green Area = muslim new territories, gradually retaken by Franks and Visigoths until 735-740. Probably northen Septimania would be aquitanian, or even frankish, until Narbona.
Could be a possibility that Carcassona would be taken by Eastearn Visigoths? But, if it takes place, Ebro valley would be under Islamic domination for longer time.

But without demand of help to Charles Martel, and wihtout 2 expeditions of plunder, maybe Aquitiane could have more autonomy in Frankish Kingdom/Empire, and quicly "scedes" from Francia Occidentalis.
It's an idea. But thanks to critizice or help me^^

I found the Frédégaire as source text, but it's very very small...Which author i must read?
EDIT : i aslo found "Histoire de la Gaule Méridionale sous les conquérants germains", very old style, but factual if we don't care about "perifidous saracens" periphrase :p

EDIT² = I 've bought : Occitanie : l'Epopée des Origines, which it's a very factual book, about high middle-ages in southern France, i think it would be useful

[The Professor]

So we get something like this?

[LSCatilina]

More like this, near 750
http://i.imgur.com/7dLq8.jpg
Ovideo and Narbo are Visigothic Sucessor States, divied between Pelagists and Witizzists lords.

In Vasconia, Kingdom of Pampelune.

Dark green = 714/715 invaded territories border
Light Green = until 731 (Battle of Bordèu), territories plundered or administrated by diverses vali or emirates in Gaul
P.S Oops, i forgot to mention that, for Kingdom of Narbo, Eastern Coast, excepting Tarragona, Barcelona, and Narbo and Besiers are invaded by islamic forces, but more for plunder than conquest.

The northen septimania, is taken by aquitanians during 730

Yellow aeraes : disputed territories, no real border and constant change of alliegances

During Carolingian Empire, Kingdom of narbo will serve as Spanish Marche, reconizing emperor suzerainety, with great autonomy.

Aquitaina would have a greater autonomy that in OTL, but would likely be annexed by Pépin and Charlemagne, however, maybe be one of 843-like lots, like Francia Occidentalis, Lotharingia, etc., critically if the first son of Louis le Pieux survives.

[LSCatilina]

On second tought. The tradeways to Ifriquya are blocked for christian trade (OTL), and the OTL conquest of Al-Andalus made that carolingians searching for new centers of economic devellopment, like northern Europa, Northern Sea, etc.

If the conquest of Iberian Peninsula is only made in 1/4 - 1/3, due to the PoD, can the tradeway between northern Hispania and Christianity make that franks are still interested by controlling a part of southern and mediterranean coast? Not putting all theirs efforts into, of course, but just a more little devellopment in north and more strong control in south.

[The Professor]

Hmm. So Duchy of Aquitaine still subordinated to the heirs of Charlemagne and made a Kingdom? And later a Duchy again?
Would Narbo also be subordinated or successfully serve to resist the later Carolingians?
Either way I can see Narbo and Aquitaine (and Pamplona) considered as 1 unit. If Narbo subordinated then it will later serve with Aquitaine as 1 part of a Verdun-like partition (named Kingdom of Narbo? Aquitaine? Toulouse?); if not subordinated then areas of the former Aquitaine will likely fall under Narbo control eg Gascony and Toulouse.

Any alt-Verdun with such a Narbo-Aquitaine included will mean that Middle Francia gets better western boundaries possibly including Flanders. Or that Middle Francia is Narbo-Aquitaine + Burgundy + Italy vs Neustria + OTL Lotharingia (North Francia vs South Francia).
An alt-Verdun excluding Narbo-Aquitaine is more difficult to ascertain but would likely shift Neustria's boundaries east - possibly Neustria (West Francia), Austrasia (East Francia), and Lombardy-Burgundy-Carinthia-SthBavaria.

[LSCatilina]

Even if Eudon of Aquitania manage to crush each islamic expedition, his sons wouldn't be capable to resist to Pepin and Aquitania would be integrated within Frankish Kingdom/Empire, but with a greater prestige, would can lead to a certain autonomy, like a Marsh of Aquitania, in view to avoid constant barons revolts during Pepin reign, then fully integrated under CHarlemagne and Louis, but with theirs nobles, maybe sons or grandsons of Eudon.

Narbo would recognize franks as suzerains and serves as Spanish March, but with greater autonomy. Ovideo would be likely as Asturias Kingdom OTL.

In fact, Narbo could be considered as the right Visigothic Kingdom, because the election rule for king remains, because they're more visigothic nobles. Ovideo is more influenced by vasconians and cantabrians traditions.

For Verdun-like partition, i will suppose that Pepin, the dead son of Louis OTL, is still alive, and the carolingian empire will be divied by four.

Pépin : Aquitainia (Aquitaine + Burgondy)
Charles : Francia (Neustria + Western Austrasia + Frise)
Louis : Germania (Eastern Austrasia + Saxony + Bavaria)
Lothaire : Italia (Provence + Northern Italia + Benevent + Frioul + Imperial title)

(in this TL, CHarlemagne can go further in Italia, not being recognized by Byzance, who is upset of the ambition of this barbarian)

Ovideo, doesn't care and even could be further in Vasconia

Narbo is, technically, on the control of Pépin, but, with the struggle between Louis sons, the kingdom can find a real autonomy.
Pépin and franks after him (possible Mersen-like, and Ribemont-like) could try to fully vassalize, but with franks internal fights, normans, maygars, rebellious nobles in Aquitania, i think Aquitania rulers would have just than too work for formalize about Narbo

This autonomy for Narbo could allow the Kingdom to regain some territories in Ebro valley, maybe Saragosse. (but with a bunch of luck)

Mmm...I think i will make the 710 - 715 part of this TL, the POD and immediate consequences seems to everyone plausible :D
Sorry for the lack of self-confidence, but it would be my first real timeline

[The Professor]

Hmmm, this could lead to a regular West Francia + Aquitaine-Burgundy + Lombardy (Italy) arrangement so that the HRE is in the West :D.
I wonder how such a reverse arrangement would work

[Cuāuhtemōc]

A set of Romance languages based more on influence from Suevi and Visigothic than Arabic, or at least more so than OTL

[MNP]

Re: The coast and the Franks. In OTL the Muslim pirates pillaged the northern coast of the Med. pretty badly until the middle 800s, one reason why Arles declined and the center of power there was moved farther north (essentially to Burgundy). I'm not sure why that would be different here.

You're probably still going to have a lot of revolts in Al-Andalus, nothing is changing the dynamics there that I can tell unless you get a really brutal/strong governor. So I think the best bet is to somehow co-opt whoever ends up as Wali in Zaragoza. As to how that might be, I have no clue with a PoD during the conquest itself. I'd be pretty amused to see the Cassius ruling Zaragoza as Christians for instance.

[LSCatilina]

A set of Romance languages based more on influence from Suevi and Visigothic than Arabic, or at least more so than OTL

The problem is that the gothic superstrat in castillan, galico-portugese, catalan, etc, is very little because the gothic population didn't merge with hispano-roman population, in contrary of french (most germanized language due to a more weak gallo-roman population, the high proportion of frankish invaders in regard to this first population and the fast merge within), italian (criticlally north italian, with a important lombard superstrat), or even occitan (criticlayy in the names)

OTL, this made that the germanic influence on hispanian languages are weak.

ATL?

It's too late to Kingdom of Ovideo, too few gothic nobles, too strong vasconian and cantabrian influences, this superstrat, added with an early iberian substrat, made the language of this region very close of OTL castillan : f->h (fabulare -> hablar) by exemple

For Kingdom of Narbo, due to a more gothic presence, it could be made, but only if gothic population begin to merge immediatly with locals, that OTL occitano-roman zone in this kingdom have more germanic toponimy, and maybe, more vocaulary in military and institutionnal language influenced by gothic.
But the presence of a strong Aquitania, occitano-roman zone too, could make that this influence remains localized.

[LSCatilina]

You're probably still going to have a lot of revolts in Al-Andalus, nothing is changing the dynamics there that I can tell unless you get a really brutal/strong governor. So I think the best bet is to somehow co-opt whoever ends up as Wali in Zaragoza. As to how that might be, I have no clue with a PoD during the conquest itself. I'd be pretty amused to see the Cassius ruling Zaragoza as Christians for instance.

Maybe Abu Tawr could rules a sucessful rebellion, takes a part of Ebro valley and pledge alliegence to Kingdom of Narbo, the relative regional strength of this kingdom could led Charlemagne to ally hiself to Abu Tawr, making Narbo his "Spanish Marche", pushing its borders in the high valley of Ebro

Of course, with a sucessfuk Ben uasi, or Cassius, changment of alligence, Kingdom of Narbo would likely give up certains territories in ebro valley, in this control, to give to Cassius.

With a Ben Qasi failure, Abd El Rahman would prefer arabo-berberian dynasties to rule north-eastern Al-Andalus, so no Musa II "third king of Spain"

[LSCatilina]

http://i.imgur.com/WKe89.png

If someone can help me to find places and names for "Visigothic lords" as Cassius or Theudimir?

Thanks

[LSCatilina]

For my timeline, how this situation is Plausible?

http://i.imgur.com/KhPmS.jpg
Brittania : As OTL
Hispania : Kingdom of Ovideo, Kingdom of Narbo, Duchy of Vascony
Gaul and Italy : Kingdom of Aquitaine, Western Frankish Kingdom (forming HRE), Papal States, Spoletto, Benevent, Bari
Germany : Kingdom of Bavaria, Eastern Frankish Kingdom
East : Morabia

[Valdemar II]

For my timeline, how this situation is Plausible?

Brittania : As OTL
Hispania : Kingdom of Ovideo, Kingdom of Narbo, Duchy of Vascony
Gaul and Italy : Kingdom of Aquitaine, Western Frankish Kingdom (forming HRE), Papal States, Spoletto, Benevent, Bari
Germany : Kingdom of Bavaria, Eastern Frankish Kingdom
East : Morabia

Yes through, if you want to make it somewhat stable, it may be a good idea to trade the East Frankish Kingdom for Italy. Through that would remove some of the point with Imperial throne.

So what about this
Lothair gain Italy, and the entire Burgundy plus the Imperial title
Louis/Ludwig gain East and West Frankia including what would later in OTL become Lotharingen
Pepin gain Aquitaine
While Charles/Karl gain Bavaria and Swabia.

While not entirely fair, it give Lothair the richest territories, the next brother the next best and it continue so until the youngest brother.

[LSCatilina]

In fact, it's the situation after Merseen and Ribemont-like treaties

Verdun-Like
Pippin : Aquitaine + Burgondy + theorical authority on Hispania
Charles : Neustria + Frise + Austrasia
Ludwig : Saxe + Francony + Swabia + Bavaria
Lothar : Lombardia + Frioul + Carinthia + Benevent + Imperial title

Lothar have better territories, but as they are too many opponents, no one can endure perpetual war and differents alliances. So his brothers just wait Lothar's sons blow up his part.
Pippin have a prosperous territory, but rebellious too, in fact 1/3 of his part avoid his rule. (Hispania, Gascony,
Charles, thanks to his father support (at his death) keeps the heart of fraknish empire
Ludwig have forces, many support in noblity, but his brother didn't want to make him too powerful, so Germania

Merseen-like
Pipin II : Aquitaine + 1/4 of Burgondy
Charles : Neustria + Austrasia + Northen Burgondy
Ludwig : Saxe + Francony + Swabia + Bavaria + Carinthia
Lothar II : Southern Burgondy + Lombardia + Frioul + Theorical authority on Benevent

Lothar dies, parting his kingdom in two (Carinthia/Frioul / Lombardia + italy) but the war between his sons make carolingians follow this exemple. Pippin II, allied with Karl, loose, and lost most of Burgondy.
Ludwig takes Carinthia, Charles Northen Burgondy, but loose Frise (to Ludwig)
Lothar II became the one ruler in Italia

Ribemont-like
Pippin II : Aquitaine + 1/2 of Burgondy
Charles's sucessor : Neustria + Frise + Austrasia + 1/2 of Burgondy + Lombardia + Frioul
Ludwig's sucessor : Saxony + Franconia + Swabia
Bosson (proclamed himself king) : Bavaria + Carinthia

Lothar II died, and Charles became emperor, taking all his kingdom, without Frioul and a part of Burgondy.
War in Germany, and, Bosson declares himself king of Bavaria, Ludwig sucessor having : Frise + Saxony + Francony + Swabia + Frioul

Future planned :
Aquitaine : Became a little kingdom, without any great hope of expension in Europe, maybe in Peninsula, and will be more or less linked to HRE

HRE : (1)More Western centered, and very soon spilted in many states. Carolingian dynasty periclites, and because of it, of norman attacks and situation, Francia Avoid HRE rule and became independent with a Robertian -like dynasty.
HRE survives in Italy, in a very very formal way, having Aquitaine, Italy, Bavaria, but not very more, until an Otto-like dynasty (maybe Toscan)
(2) Surviving HRE in Francia and Italia, more decentralized than OTL. more possibilities for italians to avoid imperial authority, and micro-states in Switzerland and Alsace. In France, Robertians are powerful, but they are just one of the 4/5 greats lords in the country.


Germania became a strong kingdom, controlling northen tradeway

Maybe it's more logical in this way?

Map in 890

http://i.imgur.com/OVRTb.jpg