Colonialism over Russia, aka an idea I'm simply already to deeply in love with....

[Ridwan Asher]

Previously, I'm sure some of you have already some maps in this site that depicted the whole North of Eurasia east of Baltic countries and Ukraine under the colonial rule of a western European nation(and it was almost always, if not always, under the english), with the best among them being Nugax's EPIC map series in this site that I'm afraid I can never find it anymore.... :(

But realistically, this will be able to happen by overcoming many, many factors. I don't exactly what those would be, maybe the Rus is simply be in a to much devastated place with no one in immediately next door is in the position to exert effective control over the whole Russia, or at least the northern part. Maybe Poland is also badly devastated or tied to somewhere else, while the steppe Turks at best can only get nominal vassalage over much of the Rus and maybe also are having more pressing commitment elsewhere. Basically, no one is in the position to supply goods that originate from or flow through the Rus needed by Europeans west of Baltics, so some of the said Europeans have this idea to take advantage. Slowly but surely, this will then roll into a deeper involvement in the east, with convergences with that of OTL's cases of British in India and/or the Dutch in Indonesia respectively, and eventually they will end up a possession of magnanimous land stretched from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Sea, not unlike OTL's Russia itself.

Now is, how exactly to produce a situation that can enable such scenario, with PoD after 1100. My first thought was a more devastating Mongol invasion, enough to overrun all of Poland and for the Mongol invasion to actually enter HRE and cast the horror over the whole HRE by put its eastern most frontier marches into mess. Will that be enough, or we still need something else ?

EDIT : Okay, I'll save my own personal preference for the time being ? ;)

[Ridwan Asher]

Bump. No one interested ?

[tormsen]

How about a non-expansive Russia leaving most of what we know as Asian Russia to the devices of the various Steppe Turks, and then the Qing do to the Siber Khanate and Tatars what they did to the Dzungars OTL. Later, during the Qing decline their vast Eurasian holdings are slowly gobbled up by European powers.

[Ridwan Asher]

How about a non-expansive Russia leaving most of what we know as Asian Russia to the devices of the various Steppe Turks, and then the Qing do to the Siber Khanate and Tatars what they did to the Dzungars OTL. Later, during the Qing decline their vast Eurasian holdings are slowly gobbled up by European powers.

I think that Qing would simply to far away to have any interest for being involved in anywhere west of Baykal and Balkhash lakes, so that's why I proposed the condition I've mentioned in my OP.

Besides, I think for any western European outsiders that would like to bother themselves to give a go for this, would most likely do it on mercantile interest, and this will only happen with the region being TOTALLY deprived from any coherent polity capable of being an effective supplier of Russian goods (mainly fur) for western Europe, which some opportunists in the west might will see this as a chance, if maybe not immediately/not as an immediate one.....

And I specifically refer to Europeans west of Baltic Sea. So no Poland, nor mega-Lithuania. ;)

Possible candidates in my head are :
- England
- Germans/Dutch
- Scandinavians (either Danish, Swedes, or a Kalmar Union or something of an United Scandinavia equivalent....)

[I Blame Communism]

If I may be permitted to broaden the discussion a little, something that interests me is Russia passing the 18th century without any *Peter the Great, that is, no radical reforms of society (entrenching personal serfdom, breaking the power of the church, table of ranks and service nobility, all that jazz), just natural development, and much less dramatic expansion if any (Russia could already beat Sweden or non-impotent Poland mano-a-mano in the 1650s, but if we have a bit of old-fashioned political turmoil and the PLC re-invigorating itself, which I think is hard but not undoable, Russia remains largely boxed in; Russia getting sea access (Azov, Ingria) actually helps my scenario, however, and is pretty likely anyway).

In this scenario, I think it's possible that Russia might miss the boat on European great-powerdom, in which case its not very outlandish to imagine it in something like the Ottoman or Iranian or perhaps Chinese mould: able to look after itself when the chips are down, and too big to be swallowed, but at the mercy of rival imperial-commercial interests struggling for dominance.

After all, when it was most stagnated (end of Nicholas I's reign), Russia was considered an "Asiatic power" by the victors of the Crimean War or at least Britain (we said that there was precedent for coalition inspectors in Russia's Black Sea ports, because China had accepted this demand after the opium wars); and its first industrial growth was heavily dependant on foreign capital and expertise.

[Grey Wolf]

This sounds rather similar to my "Angevinia" story (officially renamed Shadows of The Future, but never IIRC posted under that) of a decade ago. A harder Mongols, Germany a war zone, an empire rising out of England/France, and eventually the emergence of "the Lombard Empire" into all of Central Europe, filling the vacuum and pushing back the other states.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[wannis]

I could imagine a situation where Russia doesn't unite under Muscovy but stays a patchwork of principalities and khanates. Then from the 16th century the Dutch, English, and Swedes start moving in, perhaps also the French, interfering into Russian squabbles, acquiring ports and client states, etc - basically like OTL India. One difference may be that these colonial powers may try to put some of their royal offspring as princes on local thrones, either having them convert to Orthodoxy or trying to convert their clients to Catholicism or Protestantism. Further East, fur traders would move into Siberia. In such a scenario, there will probably be no great drive to settle Siberia, any expansion into the Steppe will be driven by police actions (against nomadic raids), the Caucasus & Crimea will stay Ottoman for much longer and the Ottoman Empire also may last much longer, without one of its great adversaries. Poland-Lithuania will be under much less pressure as well, but if it develops the same kind of internal politics as IOTL, it will still become a plaything of its neighbours and of the colonial powers ruling Russia. Central Asia will be a backwater so far away from everyone's sights that it may never become colonised. If we assume something like the French Revolution still comes along, the situation will be in the whole more favourable for France than IOTL - instead of one big adversary, there will be a patchwork of dependencies and client states of various Western powers, so revolutionary France may find allies or create sympathetic republics.

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Not that I know a heck of a lot about it, but how would this affect the rise of socialism in Russia? I know Lenin was sent by the Germans, but a large part of communist thought (especially in Asia) was anti-colonialism (i.e. Communism disguised as Nationalism). With Russia colonised by the west, could we see them getting into a situation as brutal as the Indochina Wars on a larger scale?

[wannis]

Not that I know a heck of a lot about it, but how would this affect the rise of socialism in Russia? I know Lenin was sent by the Germans, but a large part of communist thought (especially in Asia) was anti-colonialism (i.e. Communism disguised as Nationalism). With Russia colonised by the west, could we see them getting into a situation as brutal as the Indochina Wars on a larger scale?

With Russia being so near to Europe, things will start to get unruly probaly with the French revolution, and in the age of nationalism Russia will be the Balkans writ very large. OTOH, such a history may lead to a less radical socialism later on.

[Faeelin]

In this scenario, I think it's possible that Russia might miss the boat on European great-powerdom, in which case its not very outlandish to imagine it in something like the Ottoman or Iranian or perhaps Chinese mould: able to look after itself when the chips are down, and too big to be swallowed, but at the mercy of rival imperial-commercial interests struggling for dominance.

;and its first industrial growth was heavily dependant on foreign capital and expertise.

Well, but for Britain (and even then, the Dutch might have a comment or two) most nations are dependent on foreign expertise to start industrializing. But more seriously, I think it's an interesting idea. The only question is how serious and likely it is.

[orangnumpanglewat]

Perhaps a more earlier POD?
Any simple butterfly-less POD after 1399 is possible in Europa Universalis :p

[Ridwan Asher]

If I may be permitted to broaden the discussion a little, something that interests me is Russia passing the 18th century without any *Peter the Great, that is, no radical reforms of society (entrenching personal serfdom, breaking the power of the church, table of ranks and service nobility, all that jazz), just natural development, and much less dramatic expansion if any (Russia could already beat Sweden or non-impotent Poland mano-a-mano in the 1650s, but if we have a bit of old-fashioned political turmoil and the PLC re-invigorating itself, which I think is hard but not undoable, Russia remains largely boxed in; Russia getting sea access (Azov, Ingria) actually helps my scenario, however, and is pretty likely anyway).

In this scenario, I think it's possible that Russia might miss the boat on European great-powerdom, in which case its not very outlandish to imagine it in something like the Ottoman or Iranian or perhaps Chinese mould: able to look after itself when the chips are down, and too big to be swallowed, but at the mercy of rival imperial-commercial interests struggling for dominance.

After all, when it was most stagnated (end of Nicholas I's reign), Russia was considered an "Asiatic power" by the victors of the Crimean War or at least Britain (we said that there was precedent for coalition inspectors in Russia's Black Sea ports, because China had accepted this demand after the opium wars); and its first industrial growth was heavily dependant on foreign capital and expertise.

IBC

Truth to be told, I'm already aware about that idea of yours, since you've explained it in the other thread(Map Thread, I believe). :)

Actually I find it a jolly interesting idea. One more semi-colony along near east meridian for Western European to chip on will add more stuff to their frying pan. With a vulnerable Russia itself, it will rewrite history of Western half of Asia (especially in regards to Ottoman Empire and Persia), and certainly eventually of the world itself, from the point of late 17th century/early 18th century onwards, predating the later part of Ottoman Empire's stagnation era, and I don't know will this be overall good or bad for Ottomans, but seems like Persia will gain the most benefit out of this, if not the British (or the French, if they will prevail in India in this world instead of British. Whoever who would unite India under their rule basically).

However, I made this thread for the sole purpose of making Russia and North Asia into a colony not unlike that of OTL's British Raj and Dutch East Indies. And after I think of it again, I will just expose my personal agenda to make a continental equivalent of Indonesia in this vast stretch of land, simply because it will rock !! :cool: And thus the Dutch as my most favorite candidate for this scenario, in addition that they can also sail encircling the Old World to reach Siberia from the east, resulting in the potential for a process of pincer colonization of the whole land by the Dutch !! :cool::cool::cool:

[wannis]

However, I made this thread for the sole purpose of making Russia and North Asia into a colony not unlike that of OTL's British Raj and Dutch East Indies. And after I think of it again, I will just expose my personal agenda to make a continental equivalent of Indonesia in this vast stretch of land, simply because it will rock !! :cool: And thus the Dutch as my most favorite candidate for this scenario, in addition that they can also sail encircling the Old World to reach Siberia from the east, resulting in the potential for a process of pincer colonization of the whole land by the Dutch !! :cool::cool::cool:

Doesn't look like a realistic scenario to me. Dutch Siberia? Maybe. But in the European part of Russia, there would be too much competition for a small power like the Dutch to monopolise it.

[Midas]

What you might end up with in this scenario is a Rus' culture focused on Kiev and the Ukraine instead of Muscovy and Novgorod. If the devastation of the Mongol Hoardes is such a reduced Russia would make sense, and might be swallowed up by European powers at some point.

Eastern colonization is less clear from that point on. Central Asia will be enticing to some powers, but for the most part Siberia and Kamchatka was wholly unappealing to many countries- it even sort of is now.

[Ridwan Asher]

Doesn't look like a realistic scenario to me. Dutch Siberia? Maybe. But in the European part of Russia, there would be too much competition for a small power like the Dutch to monopolise it.

Like I've said, I intend to castrate most of the potential candidate for serious competitors, namely Poland, the Russians themselves, and for this case for choosing Western Europeans, also the Scandinavians(as the Dutch won't move much beyond the Baltic with Swedes or Danes on their back). The Dutch needed 3 centuries to unite Indonesia IOTL, after all(though transportation by sea did help them). After it's ensured no one in the Baltics to clash interests with them ever again, they can certainly subdue the "Russia proper" that is less viscosious than OTL. Considering how early my preference of PoD for this scenario, I think this is essentially doable, especially with emplying butterflies, not to mention that the Netherlands can certainly be anything with a PoD before Burgundian rule...... (indeed, a pretty different Dutch people without doubt they would be, though I certainly want to maintain as much convergence as possible.)

[The Professor]

But would North Eurasia be colonised by West Europeans?

Apart from the areas adjacent to Finland, Lithuania, and the Russias, it's a tad inaccessible. Unless they're coming from the East via North America.

[Nugax]

But would North Eurasia be colonised by West Europeans?

Apart from the areas adjacent to Finland, Lithuania, and the Russias, it's a tad inaccessible. Unless they're coming from the East via North America.

Well the geographic barriers to all other centres of settled development are if anything rather more formidable than sailing over the Baltic/White Sea and then the River routes (crossing the Stanovy Range? The Gobi Desert and Altai Mountains? Central Asia?), and Europeans both have appropriate technology and agricultural packages for land usage and a clear economic driver (in fur trapping).

[wannis]

Like I've said, I intend to castrate most of the potential candidate for serious competitors, namely Poland, the Russians themselves, and for this case for choosing Dutch, also the Scandinavians(as the Dutch won't move much beyond the Baltic with Swedes or Danes on their back). The Dutch needed 3 centuries to unite Indonesia IOTL, after all(though transportation by sea did help them). After it's ensured no one in the Baltics to clash interests with them ever again, they can certainly subdue the "Russia proper" that is less viscosious than OTL. Considering how early my preference of PoD for this scenario, I think this is essentially doable, especially with emplying butterflies, not to mention that the Netherlands can certainly be anything with a PoD before Burgundian rule...... (indeed, a pretty different Dutch people without doubt they would be, though I certainly want to maintain as much convergence as possible.)

Well, if you change enough things, everything is possible. That's not my flavour of althist, but to everyone their own... :)

[Ridwan Asher]

Well, if you change enough things, everything is possible. That's not my flavour of althist, but to everyone their own... :)

Eh, I belong to the school of minimal butterflies myself. But honestly, making Russia vulnerable enough for a colonization does need a loadsome of butterflies, because you really, really have to prevent ANY immediate neighbor to the Russias from becoming able to enter and stabilize the region, hence why further interference by the westerners would then become necessary. In case for Western Europeans, added also (primarily) Scandinavians to the list, though maybe with less immediate priority, so that the said western european power can has their back secure while diving deeper and deeper into the Rus.

As for the first task, I think the simplest way would be by using Mongols. With basically having them penetrating even deeper into Europe, either resulting in a completely overrun Poland, or maybe instead the Poles would buy their ensurance of survival with an offer of vassalage and providing freeway for the Mongols to advance deeper into Europe(the Germans certainly won't gonna like it. And I also looking for a possibility of Poland Goes West scenario as well). As for the second, it can be done later by limiting both Danes and Swedes naval capability enough for the cause. Seems like a tough job to me, but I still think it as doable...

[wannis]

Well, even if you exclude the Poles and Scandinavians, having the Dutch get all of it is still a stretch. IOTL, the English were very involved in the Russia trade (e.g. via Arkhangelsk), and I don't think they'd just stand by and watch the Dutch taking it over. Even taking your example of Indonesia, England took over important parts of the spice trade region with controlling India and Malaysia, so it's not as if the Dutch had the region all to themselves.

[Ridwan Asher]

Well, even if you exclude the Poles and Scandinavians, having the Dutch get all of it is still a stretch. IOTL, the English were very involved in the Russia trade (e.g. via Arkhangelsk), and I don't think they'd just stand by and watch the Dutch taking it over. Even taking your example of Indonesia, England took over important parts of the spice trade region with controlling India and Malaysia, so it's not as if the Dutch had the region all to themselves.

A chance to make one thing clear : Exactly when did the British begin to get involved in Russian trade IOTL ?

[dreadnought jenkins]

A chance to make one thing clear : Exactly when did the British begin to get involved in Russian trade IOTL ?

They were trading in Russia by the 1500's.

The Muscovy company was granted its charter in 1555 I think...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muscovy_Company

[dreadnought jenkins]

There is of course, also the settlement of Mangazeya. It was closed down in the early 1600's because the Russian government feared that the English would eventualy use it to get access to Siberia and circumvent Russia entirely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangazeya

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/mangazeya.htm

Now say that Russia is alot weaker (say via continued civil war, and mongol and Polish invasions leading to some kind of semi permanent time of troubles) you might see the English eventualy claim the region.

In that case, you'd probably see the Crown give something like a monopoly over an entire drainage basin, like they did in Hudson's bay. This would lead to the British trading company trying to assert authority over the Ob river and its drainage basin.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Ob_watershed.png/600px-Ob_watershed.png (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Ob_watershed.png)

[Ridwan Asher]

There is of course, also the settlement of Mangazeya. It was closed down in the early 1600's because the Russian government feared that the English would eventualy use it to get access to Siberia and circumvent Russia entirely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangazeya

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/mangazeya.htm

Now say that Russia is alot weaker (say via continued civil war, and mongol and Polish invasions leading to some kind of semi permanent time of troubles) you might see the English eventualy claim the region.

In that case, you'd probably see the Crown give something like a monopoly over an entire drainage basin, like they did in Hudson's bay. This would lead to the British trading company trying to assert authority over the Ob river and its drainage basin.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Ob_watershed.png/600px-Ob_watershed.png (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Ob_watershed.png)

Jolly nice info !!! It clears out to me about the geography of the region, thanks a bunch !! :) :)

And also this also has changed my perception on how the pattern of expansion will be. So the western Europeans in question will be running into the steppe Khanates from east before they reach them from west as well, most likely....

Also, about the English case IOTL, how realistic the Tsar's fear of English encirclement was ? Would've the English been able to use the assistance of local steppe tribes to contain the Russians from the east and propping the already subjugated Tatars to rise up against Russians ?

[Analytical Engine]

I think I might have to steal this idea for the new Strangerverse TL I'm writing. ;)

Any objections?

[Ridwan Asher]

I think I might have to steal this idea for the new Strangerverse TL I'm writing. ;)

Any objections?

As long as you pay the license fee ;)

:p

[Nugax]

As long as you pay the license fee ;)

:p

That'll be 15 internets made payable to Nugax ;)...

Oh btw Ridwan heres the maps you mentioned in the first post:
http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=2684200#post2684200

[Ridwan Asher]

That'll be 15 internets made payable to Nugax ;)...

Oh btw Ridwan heres the maps you mentioned in the first post:
http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=2684200#post2684200

Wanna sleep with me then ?

EDIT : Indeed, I owe you an Eurasia for this one.... :D

[MerryPrankster]

Here's a picture in my head:

Scandinavian suzerainty over the Baltic littoral and a fair bit inland--perhaps it's them who build St. Petersburg, as an anchor for a Baltic/NW empire.

An enlarged Poland (or Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) extending deeper into the interior, perhaps including much of the Ukraine.

Ottoman or Ottoman-allied Crimea.

Continued dominance of Islamic Tartar entities in the interior of Great Russia.

Qing Chinese dominance over much of eastern Siberia and the parts of Central Asia that don't belong to the khanates.

For the weirdness alone, I'm liking the English colonial regime in the interior of Siberia, along the rivers. :)

The problem is, what sort of POD would be needed to bring this kind of situation about?

[The Professor]

Here's a picture in my head:

Scandinavian suzerainty over the Baltic littoral and a fair bit inland--perhaps it's them who build St. Petersburg, as an anchor for a Baltic/NW empire.

An enlarged Poland (or Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) extending deeper into the interior, perhaps including much of the Ukraine.

Ottoman or Ottoman-allied Crimea.

Continued dominance of Islamic Tartar entities in the interior of Great Russia.

Qing Chinese dominance over much of eastern Siberia and the parts of Central Asia that don't belong to the khanates.

For the weirdness alone, I'm liking the English colonial regime in the interior of Siberia, along the rivers. :)

The problem is, what sort of POD would be needed to bring this kind of situation about?

Sounds reasonable.

Maybe bump up fertility of the Rurikid (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rurikids) Grand Princes so that it's not expected that they all coalesce - possibly have Dmitry of Suzadal the GP of Vladimir have a son so he successfully competes with Dmitriy Donskoi GP of Moscow.
Maintain GP of Vladimir past the alt-Vasilis and you should get a weaker Tsar of Russia (if there is one!), and larger Pol-Lith and Sweden. Then the Time of Troubles when it seemd the Tsardom would fracture actually causes a fracture and so England gets a West Siberia Company, China exapnds northward, etc etc.

[Basilisk]

In that case, you'd probably see the Crown give something like a monopoly over an entire drainage basin, like they did in Hudson's bay. This would lead to the British trading company trying to assert authority over the Ob river and its drainage basin.
To what extend is that river navigable, though? Without veins of navigation, the whole "drainage basin monopoly" kinda loses it's value.

[Nugax]

To what extend is that river navigable, though? Without veins of navigation, the whole "drainage basin monopoly" kinda loses it's value.

Well the Hudson bay rivers weren't that navigable except for small boats either. As for siberia rivers with small boats in summer and sledges on their forzen surface in winter are the major and most important means of transportation.

As for where you can go:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Siberiariverroutemap.png

Pretty much all the rivers in blue are usable for transport and the purple out line is the heavy transport system the Russians used to conquer Siberia.

If Britain does control the Ob they will end up with the Yenisei and Lena, theres pretty much not power that can or would want to stop them once the Ob is secured. Pretty much anything north of the Stanovoy Range is firmly protected from China, and the Central Asians aren't that interest in the Northern woods and River trade.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

:confused:But the rivers connect to the Arctic Sea, which isn't navigable. People looked almost as hard for a NorthEast Passage as for a NorthWest one, and were equivalently unsuccessful.

[Nugax]

You don't sail the Arctic sea, which anyway is only impassable right at the top of Siberia with the Taymyr Peninsula.

You sail to Salekhard via the White Sea, which is doable about 6 months of the year. You then take a riverboat down the Ob and up the Vakh, portage over to the Sym, sail up the Yenisei and down the Tungusk, portage over the Lena and head down the Lena to its mouth at Tiksi, where you can access the Laptev sea which is navigable in August and September and where you shoudl have a ship waiting.

I mean its hard, but perfectly possible to do over the course of a year once you've mapped the route. You leave Arkhangelsk in March, and get to the Pacific in October. Its only worthwhile for high value low volume goods, but is much easier than going the whole way to China over land.

[Valdemar II]

You don't sail the Arctic sea, which anyway is only impassable right at the top of Siberia with the Taymyr Peninsula.

You sail to Salekhard via the White Sea, which is doable about 6 months of the year. You then take a riverboat down the Ob and up the Vakh, portage over to the Sym, sail up the Yenisei and down the Tungusk, portage over the Lena and head down the Lena to its mouth at Tiksi, where you can access the Laptev sea which is navigable in August and September and where you shoudl have a ship waiting.

I mean its hard, but perfectly possible to do over the course of a year once you've mapped the route. You leave Arkhangelsk in March, and get to the Pacific in October. Its only worthwhile for high value low volume goods, but is much easier than going the whole way to China over land.

Plus it's no worse than Hudson bay. In many way it's better because the southen reaches of the rivers can be used for farming.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

You don't sail the Arctic sea, which anyway is only impassable right at the top of Siberia with the Taymyr Peninsula.

You sail to Salekhard via the White Sea, which is doable about 6 months of the year. You then take a riverboat down the Ob and up the Vakh, portage over to the Sym, sail up the Yenisei and down the Tungusk, portage over the Lena and head down the Lena to its mouth at Tiksi, where you can access the Laptev sea which is navigable in August and September and where you shoudl have a ship waiting.

I mean its hard, but perfectly possible to do over the course of a year once you've mapped the route. You leave Arkhangelsk in March, and get to the Pacific in October. Its only worthwhile for high value low volume goods, but is much easier than going the whole way to China over land.
Thank you, thank you.

This explains a LOT that I never understood about Russian expansion.

Thank you again. It really clears up a lot.

[Ridwan Asher]

Thank you, thank you.

This explains a LOT that I never understood about Russian expansion.

Thank you again. It really clears up a lot.

Will be doing this, once more ! :cool:

By the way, some hypothetical question : Let's say in addition to this option of northern routes, at the same time the Russians (especially the northern ones) are really to disintegrated and nor of their entities are strong enough to be a reliable partner for western merchants. Would this fragmented northern Russians face a push from the western power(s) in question ? So leading Western Siberia to be reached from two routes ?

[wannis]

By the way, some hypothetical question : Let's say in addition to this option of northern routes, at the same time the Russians (especially the northern ones) are really to disintegrated and nor of their entities are strong enough to be a reliable partner for western merchants. Would this fragmented northern Russians face a push from the western power(s) in question ? So leading Western Siberia to be reached from two routes ?

Depends on what happens to Novgorod. IOTL, the colonisation of the North was driven by Novgorod before it was swallowed by Muscovy. In that case, the English or other Europen powers operating via the White Sea would have to deal with Novgorod. OTOH, in the proposed scenario it's easy to envisage either 1) a Novgorod much more involved in the squabbles among the Russian principalities and being disctracted from the North by fights for territory in Central Russia or 2) Novgorod being weakened by outside powers (more succesful Teutonic Order, Swedes, whatever) and so making it possible for Western powers to take hold of the White Sea littoral.

Possible consequence of your scenario - an England heavily involved in the Russian fur trade may be much less interested in the American fur trade, leading to less competition with the French for the interior of North America.

[The Professor]

Just a small question:

How do you get to the White Sea from Western Europe?

[Nugax]

You sail noth of Norway during the 8-10 months of the year its feasible?

[The Professor]

You sail noth of Norway during the 8-10 months of the year its feasible?

Cheers. I wasn't sure how navigable it was north of Norway

[Old Airman]

OK, I'll start with the original idea, i.e. Netherlanders being colonial masters. The POD might be a lot later than you think, around Times of Troubles (early 1600s). Russian Tsardom was extremely weak at this point, with the dynasty considered natural lords of the land (Muskovite Rurikids) dying out and no one with obvious claim to replace them (there was no shortage of cadet lines, but without the heir apparent, and they were generally weaker than most powerful Boyar cliques). OTL it all ended with election of Romanovs (heads of most powerful Boyar group), who ruled over a country in deep trouble, with empty coffers and not enough taxpayers to fill them. This brought about the scheme to LEND part of the country to Netherlanders to exploit it's riches (most of all, forests and iron deposits), with Dutch paying gold in advance to Russian government and then recovering their expenses (and making profits) through export of iron and forest products. Basically, tax-farming scheme. IOTL the scheme didn't go through, although it had been absolutely crucial for founding of main Russian armoury to this day, Tula iron works (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Vinius). Now, different small events might be butterflied IATL to see this scheme being fully implemented. Russian court will depend on Dutch money more and more, becoming their proxy by late 1600s. Even better, make Second Opolchenie (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narodnoe_Opolcheniye) lose to Poles and prevent reunification. This scheme might see one of regional rulers (in Northern Russia, most likely) to turn to Dutch for money and support... Then, even if Russia eventually reunifies (which IS likely), nobody would kill a money-making enterprise and new rulers will need Dutch more than ever.

How about a non-expansive Russia leaving most of what we know as Asian Russia to the devices of the various Steppe Turks, and then the Qing do to the Siber Khanate and Tatars what they did to the Dzungars OTL. Unlikely if there's a big Central Russian state controlling Kama mouth from 1550s on (Kama-Chusovaya route being the main highway to Siberia). However, you can try to introduce numerous PODs preventing Russian control over Kama (I don't think it would be easy to create Russia fractured enough for it not being able to produce 2000-3000 strong explorer force, and that's how many Cossacks it took IOTL to establish Russian control over Siberia).

I think for any western European outsiders that would like to bother themselves to give a go for this, would most likely do it on mercantile interest, and this will only happen with the region being TOTALLY deprived from any coherent polity capable of being an effective supplier of Russian goods (mainly fur) for western Europe.....Siberia is not as hopelessly inaccessible as you think. IOTL Russian tsars closed http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangazeya exactly due to fears of direct Western access to Siberian furs, without paying into Russian coffers first. With weak/fractured/failed Russia, you might see quite thriving European fur trade in Siberia by mid- to late-1600.

If I may be permitted to broaden the discussion a little, something that interests me is Russia passing the 18th century without any *Peter the Great, that is, no radical reforms of society (entrenching personal serfdom, breaking the power of the church, table of ranks and service nobility, all that jazz), just natural development, and much less dramatic expansion if any.Reforms DID happen IOTL before Peter (most of wartime Russian army had been "soldier" regiments by late 1600 as opposed to infamous Streltsy), and PLC became a Russian puppet (OK, may be "junior partner" might be better definition, but no Polish king after Sobieski was elected without Russian approval) before Peter grew up. So it would not be fair to say that Peter singlehandedly pulled Russia into modernity, although "Ottomanization" is definitely possible without him (just not certain).

After all, when it was most stagnated (end of Nicholas I's reign), Russia was considered an "Asiatic power" by the victors of the Crimean War or at least Britain "The wogs begin at Calais", right? :) Although I have to say that some American atlases printed after 2000 (this is not a typo, two-freaking-thousand AD) still consider Kaliningrad as being "Asia" and Georgia as being "Europe" :) :) :)

I could imagine a situation where Russia doesn't unite under Muscovy but stays a patchwork of principalities and khanates. Yes, different rules of the game within the Golden Horde could bring it easily. OTL raise of Muskovy had been largely caused by Tartar's desire to have main tribute collector, who would do the plundering and then bring gold to them. Muscovite, Suzdal, Tver etc. princes fought for the right to collect on behalf of Tartar and Muskovy won. Would the Horde decide to collect the tribute directly, it would leave a quilt of small city-states by the time gunpowder and advances in farming made nomad-dominated empires vulnerable (I, in all fairness, don't see the Horde surviving past 1600).

One difference may be that these colonial powers may try to put some of their royal offspring as princes on local thrones, either having them convert to Orthodoxy or trying to convert their clients to Catholicism or Protestantism. Don't count on conversion of the population. Mongols pretty much killed the idea in it's cradle by granting special status to clergy and thus making the Church de-facto symbol of Russianness for an ordinary person. However, Greek Catholic church might make some gains ITTL.

[wannis]

OK Then, even if Russia eventually reunifies (which IS likely), nobody would kill a money-making enterprise and new rulers will need Dutch more than ever.

Well, from that point onward, it could be anyone, right? A united Russia would certainly try to diversify its sources of investment. So I think a fractured Russia would be essential for the Dutch to kep control, but a fractured Russia would at the same time give openings to other powers. So we'd need a really good reason why no stronger contender would oust the Dutch.

Unlikely if there's a big Central Russian state controlling Kama mouth from 1550s on (Kama-Chusovaya route being the main highway to Siberia). However, you can try to introduce numerous PODs preventing Russian control over Kama (I don't think it would be easy to create Russia fractured enough for it not being able to produce 2000-3000 strong explorer force, and that's how many Cossacks it took IOTL to establish Russian control over Siberia).

Except if those Russian states would be in a constant state of war, so any of them would see attacking their neighbour with these troups as a better use than sending them off into the wilderness.



Yes, different rules of the game within the Golden Horde could bring it easily. OTL raise of Muskovy had been largely caused by Tartar's desire to have main tribute collector, who would do the plundering and then bring gold to them. Muscovite, Suzdal, Tver etc. princes fought for the right to collect on behalf of Tartar and Muskovy won. Would the Horde decide to collect the tribute directly, it would leave a quilt of small city-states by the time gunpowder and advances in farming made nomad-dominated empires vulnerable (I, in all fairness, don't see the Horde surviving past 1600).


Yes, these are good points; I also don't see effective Horde rule over Russia at that point, although one could imagine some kind of formal suzerainty or local Khans and Princes deriving their legitimacy from the Khan.


Don't count on conversion of the population. Mongols pretty much killed the idea in it's cradle by granting special status to clergy and thus making the Church de-facto symbol of Russianness for an ordinary person. However, Greek Catholic church might make some gains ITTL.
Good point as well. Protestantism and perhaps Catholicism may be more successful among the non-Russian peoples of the North and Siberia, depending on who gains control of those areas.