New Countries by 2099

[Strategos' Risk]

Assuming that nothing drastic happens- a catastrophic West vs. East nuclear war over China and North Korea, or Presidente Rice conquers the Middle East and Central Asia and redraws the map, Alexander the Great-style, what new nations might appear by the end of the century?

I'd like some critical thinking before just naming all of the common secessionist movements or disputed territories. For example, would Russia really let Chechnya go?

[Straha]

since the red and blue states are becoming more and more polarized maybe the Republic of New england and The Western states of america?

[Strategos' Risk]

Sorry, but NO. The United States breaking apart, either peacefully or through war, would count as a massive, masssively drastic event. That is not what I'm looking for. Though it would be interesting if a "Christian States of America" broke off (even I'd know how to draw the map), that is not the sort of thing I'm looking for.

[Landshark]

The Republic of Somaliland could be recognised and Indonesia could fragment.

[Othniel]

Maybe a disupted region between two countries forms into its own, like between India and Pakistan, playing the powers off each other.

[Imajin]

The Dnesitr Republic in Moldova may get recognized?

[Dave Howery]

independent Quebec? Australia splits in two? Scotland becomes free?

I just love breaking up the Commonwealth... :)

[Landshark]

A Karen state oout of Burma.

[MarkA]

I would think the most likely candidates would be regions in the EU. By 2099 perhaps our present concept of nation states and nationalism will be obsolete. With the steady decline in the purpose of borders within the Union maybe peoples will tend to separate into almost tribal groups but still retain their supranational identity as Europeans.

Basque nation state in both present day France and Spain. Langedoc reborn. Walloon state? Who can tell what will happen in the Balkans?? I also think an increasing mood of independence or at least desire for more control over thier destiny will lead to increasing distance between Scotland and England.

Will China break up? Probably not. Russia again seems unlikely as a candidate for fragmentation but a loose federation mayvbe the future there.

[Imajin]

I don't know about a Basque nation state extending into Spain and France- Wouldn't that require Basque rule of Navarre, which the Basque Country Basques tend to support but the Navarrese not so much.

[Othniel]

Not so much fragmentation I'm betting, but more along the lines of spilter nations... Maybe Scotland decides to go free?

[Strategos' Risk]

independent Quebec? Australia splits in two? Scotland becomes free?


I could undestand Scotland breaking free, if they handle independence economically. Same for Quebec (or even Newfoundland, for that matter). But would they want to leave? And why Australia in halves?

[Thande]

Scotland IS 'free'! They have their own parliament, they have democracy, most of the UK government is made up of Scots...how much freer can you get?!!

(In population terms this is like a united America + Canada in which most of the government, including the president, is Canadian!)

[MarkA]

By 2099 maybe the Navarrese will change their position? Catalan maybe a separate nation?

Interesting concept of a 'Christian' US separatist state. I thought they already were in many senses? They have their own colleges and schools or do home schooling. Separating themselves from the state seems a way of life for them. As their concept of democracy and intellectual honesty is so alien to the mainstream trasitions of the west perhaps it would be better for the rest of us if they did split off. Just keep weapons away from the bastards!!!

[Strategos' Risk]

Again, the United States splitting up is TOO DRASTIC FOR THIS THREAD. This nation's already been through one civil war; another just seems too unlikely at this time. Are all of the ideologically conservative in California just going to move South? Are all of the liberals of Texas going to be forced to move north? An ideologically-driven USCW in the 21st century doesn't make geographical sense.

Again, would all of those ethnic enclaves in France, Spain, and the rest of well-to-do, EU nations really want their own countries? Other than the Basques, that is.

[Straha]

Sorry, but NO. The United States breaking apart, either peacefully or through war, would count as a massive, masssively drastic event. That is not what I'm looking for. Though it would be interesting if a "Christian States of America" broke off (even I'd know how to draw the map), that is not the sort of thing I'm looking for.
note: the thread said by 2099. New england isn't likely to secede anytime now or in the next 1-2 decades. If politics keeps up its conservative bent we may see new england and the west coast seperating peacefully.

[Count Dearborn]

There is a movement called THE CHRISTIAN EXODUS who have plans to have their members move to a southern state, most likely S. Carolina, get a majority in the state government, and succeed from the Union. This is planned to happen sometime between 2010-2016. (Google Christian Exodus) I've probably got it wrong.

[Strategos' Risk]

Yes, but this thread also forbids too drastic changes. Any reason for a part of the U.S. to want to break off seems to be just too strange and extreme, at the moment.

Unless you can offer a better explanation than cultural issues.

There is a movement called THE CHRISTIAN EXODUS who have plans to have their members move to a southern state, most likely S. Carolina, get a majority in the state government, and succeed from the Union. This is planned to happen sometime between 2010-2016. (Google Christian Exodus) I've probably got it wrong.

C'mon. When's the last time Pat Robertson called for an Exodus? Just because a movement has a website doesn't mean they have much clout.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I don't think the United States splitting up is that drastic, if it happens peacefully. What difference would it really make? The Red states have a puny economy compared to the Blue. Although if the GOP takes over the Midwest that will change.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

How about the restored Ottoman Empire? 94 years is a long time, and Kemalism just died 10 years ago.

[Strategos' Risk]

I don't think the United States splitting up is that drastic, if it happens peacefully. What difference would it really make? The Red states have a puny economy compared to the Blue. Although if the GOP takes over the Midwest that will change.

I just don't see it. I mean, there's the Jesusland and United States of Canada maps floating around online, and it just seems preposterous, unless the West and East coasts become their own countries, or they're willing to do a Pakistan/Bangladesh thing.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I just don't see it. I mean, there's the Jesusland and United States of Canada maps floating around online, and it just seems preposterous, unless the West and East coasts become their own countries, or they're willing to do a Pakistan/Bangladesh thing.

94 years is a loooooooonnnnnnnnngggggggg time. 94 years ago was 1911. Things have changed since then.

[eschaton]

My ideas:

Southern Sudan (Maybe it would have another name)
Eastern Bolivia (there's an active seperatist movement there now)
Kurdistan (inevitable now to some degree)
Greenland (as Denmark integrates more into the EU, it may choose its own way)
Western Sahara (well, it's sorta not a nation now...maybe some day it will be)
Nevis
West Papua
Tahiti

This is all guesswork of course.

[zoomar]

Again, the United States splitting up is TOO DRASTIC FOR THIS THREAD.

I disagree. Almost one hundred years is a really long time in modern human history and a lot can change. Change your date to 2050 and I might go along, maybe. Just compare a world map of 2005, with 1905, with 1805. The Russian Empire/USSR is a case in point, in 1805 or 1905 no one would have predicted an independent Ukraine or Belarus, and perhaps the fissoining hasn't stoped yet.

Heres my 10 off-the cuff predictions for 2099:

(1) A completely united western European federation within which many smaller ethnic member states have been peacefully and legally separated from places like the UK, Spain, France, etc.

(2) Some larger and more united Islamic state in the Middle East combining several places like Iraq, Syria, and the Arabian peninsula - Either resulting from the victory of radical islamic militant movements or a western/US cultural "victory" in the so-called wars on terrorism.

(3) An independent Hawaii, perhaps in some sort of commonwealth status with the USA

(3) An independent Quebec

(4) A smaller, More Russian and European Russia, perhaps in a CIS-like relationship with some of the former SSR's or affiliated with the European Union.

(5) Probabably increased state fragmentation in Africa north of South Afrika and South of the Sahara along tribal/ethnic lines, but perhaps structured by a weak pan-african governmental structure or under the mandate of the UN (or a sucessor international organization)

(6) Political union of China and Taiwan.

(7) One Korea (take your pick)

(8) Perhaps one or more politically independent nations in Siberia

(9) Australia/New Zealand union

(10) Possible division of Hindu India into several sucessor states - but perhaps still in a loose confederation.

The UN as we know it today will not exist, replaced by a much smaller and efficient body consisting of a decision-making assembly representing fewer than 15 large regional states (like the USA and China) or supra-national federations/confederations and a completely powerless consultative assembly including everybody else.

[Forum Lurker]

I don't see a pan-Islamic state, but I could imagine an Arabian Union along EU-style lines, including a democratic Iraq, Palestine, Saudia Arabia (with the government to some extent overthrown for democratization), Jordan, Egypt, and Syria (the latter three being reformed, rather than suffering revolution), at least.

[MerryPrankster]

A Palestinian state of some flavor is likely by 2099.

Both Pat Buchanan and Ariel Sharon (what a combo!) have come to the conclusion that the Israeli presence in the Occupied Territories is untenable due to the high Palestinian birthrate.

Eventually the Palestinians will become the majority and instead of "End the Occupation!" it will be "One Man One Vote!" Israel must either evacuate the territories or risk a demographic takeover.

Gaza could become sort of sort statelet--assuming it doesn't get taken over by Hamas and turn into a perpetual source of trouble for the region, it could be a Hong Kong-like enclave.

The West Bank and East Jerusalem--that could be trickier.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I don't see a pan-Islamic state, but I could imagine an Arabian Union along EU-style lines, including a democratic Iraq, Palestine, Saudia Arabia (with the government to some extent overthrown for democratization), Jordan, Egypt, and Syria (the latter three being reformed, rather than suffering revolution), at least.

I don't see Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq in a union with Saudi Arabia. And the issue with the other four is that Egypt would totally dominate such a union, and I don't think the others would go for it.

[Midnight Sun]

My ideas:

Southern Sudan (Maybe it would have another name)
Eastern Bolivia (there's an active seperatist movement there now)
Kurdistan (inevitable now to some degree)
Greenland (as Denmark integrates more into the EU, it may choose its own way)
Western Sahara (well, it's sorta not a nation now...maybe some day it will be)
Nevis
West Papua
Tahiti

This is all guesswork of course.

Hmm maybe Axum? I dont really know if Axumite Kingdom ruled the present day southern Sudan.

[Thande]

You live in Florida AND Sweden? That's a very big house. ;)

Welcome to the board, btw - have you managed to log off yet?

[Midnight Sun]

lol Im living in Florida now, but I usually go to Sweden (where I was born) for a few months.

nope not yet. :D

[MerryPrankster]

Leo said that an independent southern Sudan would be called "Equatoria."

[MarkA]

By 2099 separation may not rely on geographical separation. With the ultra conservative christians in the US now being in the process of separating from the state this may well develop further.

As these people become totally divorced from the education system of the United States they will demand their taxes be reduced because they do not require the provision of state based education. Then as they create their own medical facilities the same thing will happen. As they are opposed to most state welfare now and as conservative US gvts farm out welfare and social security to the private church based organisations, then demands from these groups to be exempt from taxation obligations to support state welfare programs will grow.

While this may sound unlikely just consider how unlikely the demands of the American colonies leading up to the War of Independence was. 'No taxation without representation' was a radical message. Is it such a big step to we don't want representation so we don't want to pay taxes?

Just about Australia and NZ uniting it is very unlikely. Our Constitution still talks about New Zealand being a state. We unite temporarily in the face of crisis or need but a full political union is not remotely possible at the moment nor likely even a century hence.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Leo said that an independent southern Sudan would be called "Equatoria."

Equatoria is almost certain to be the name - it is the historical name, and was popularized at a time when there was much optimism about the region, so it has positive connotations.

If you're into Victorian history, the province was created by the Egyptian Viceroy Ismail, who comissioned Samuel Baker to organize a province stretching to Lake Victoria (didn't quite make it, but it used to reach the bend in the Nile after Lake Albert), who was succeeded by Gordon, and followed by Emin Pasha, who held out in the South during the Mahdist revolt - three of the most famous Victorian adventurers.

[Imajin]

Catalan maybe a separate nation?
Actually, there is one country whose official language- and only official language- is Catalan.
The nation also has an interesting system with two rulers, one of which is selected by the Electorate of another nation!
The nation's name is Andorra...

[Thande]

Admit it, you're obsessed!

Why don't we all save up our spare pennies and buy Imajin a one way ticket to Andorra?

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Admit it, you're obsessed!

Why don't we all save up our spare pennies and buy Imajin a one way ticket to Andorra?

I once read that by many definitions, the Order of the Knights of St. John's HQ in Rome has the qualities of statehood, so at two acres, is the smallest country in the world.

[chrispi]

The Nine Nations of North America scenario is the most obvious.

As for the EU, let's just say that the borders are going to be radically redrawn. (Hint: no Belgium! :D )

South America will largely remain the same (i.e. Lusophone Brazil and lots of Spanish countries.)

Africa will experience its own Napoleonic-like imperialism and conquest as its republic-to-monarchy trend continues.

Siberia wins independence.

India and China become superpowers. Australia and NZ become dominated by Indians and Chinese but maintain their political systems.

[fortyseven]

A Sikh country.

[Imajin]

We could possibly have a People's Republic of Nepal by then...

[Duke of Monmouth]

How about Kernow, at last is able to break away from the UK

The Duke

[SirCliveWolfe]

How about Kernow, at last is able to break away from the UK

The Duke

Sir

Only a strategically shaved monkey with a turnip in his mouth (ala black adder) could think that Cornwall could survive. Imagine if you will Cornish officails go to London to get independance only to be told they do not have to pay taxes, they go home happy and the English still tax then. You of all pople should know this 'Duke' :D

Yours

Lord Wolfe of Lindsay Road.

[Thande]

If Cornwall can have independence what about the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire? That's de facto as it is...

[Duke of Monmouth]

A good sword and a trusty hand,
A merry heart and true.
King James's men shall understand
What Cornish men can do.

And have they fixed the where and when?
And shall Trelawny die?
Then twenty-thousand Cornishmen
Will know the reason why!

And shall Trelawny live?
Or shall Trelawny die?
Here's twenty-thousand Cornishmen
Will know the reason why!

Out spake the captain brave and bold,
A merry wight was he:
"Though London tower were Michael's hold,
We'll set Trelawny free!"

"We'll cross the Tamar, land to land.
The Severn is no stay.
Then 'One and All' and hand in hand
And who shall bid us nay?"

And shall Trelawny live?
Or shall Trelawny die?
Here's twenty-thousand Cornishmen
Will know the reason why!

"And when we come to London wall,
A pleasant sight to view,
'Come forth! Come forth! Ye cowards all!
Here are better men than you!'"

Trelawny he's in keep in hold.
Trelawny he may die.
But twenty-thousand Cornish Bold
Will know the reason why!

And shall Trelawny live?
Or shall Trelawny die?
Here's twenty-thousand Cornishmen
Will know the reason why!


The Duke

[SirCliveWolfe]

If Cornwall can have independence what about the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire? That's de facto as it is...

Sir

NEVER :mad:

"We shall fight them on the Pennines,
We shall fight them on the rugby pitch,
and on the cricket ground too!!"

Yours

Lord Wlofe Oversear of occupied Yorkshire

[Valamyr]

http://img228.echo.cx/img228/44/20990zj.png

Great, it worked.

Okay, here's some notable changes along with brief explanations.

Independent Quebec; follows successful 2009 referendum and lack of organized defense of federal ideas after the breakdown of the two major federal parties in Ottawa. A few years later, as oil becomes increasingly paramount, Alberta secedes. The maritimes states and BC join the USA. The central provinces continues to exist as Canada.

United Europe, which includes most of Turkey, Ukraine, the south caucasian states, Algeria and Chechenya. Formation begins in 2008 following the ratification of the 2nd draft of the European Constitution, after the failure of the first. The next major step is taken after NATO's collapse, in 2014, when thinkers begin to argue that nationalism is outdated and union is the way of the future. Unionist parties begins to appear in most EU countries. Turkey and other adjacant states join the EU despite centralist tendencies. 2032: France and Germany's unionist parties launch the first major merger movement. 2039: Sessession of the Basque from Spain. 2040: Spain reacts by electing a Unionist government, joins "Europa". 2045: The End of the Oil Era triggers widespread desire to join Europa, which has the most modern and progressive alternative energy strategies on Earth. 2046-2055: Most of the EU adhere to the superstate. This trend continues up to the last step in 2098, with the adhesion of Switzerland.

Independent Hawaii; Sessession accepted by the first Reformist US government in 2052.

United Ireland; 2057. Death of religious ideals in this part of the world and bitter divides between the UK and Northern Ireland leads to rapid ties with the rest of the island.

Russia: The western backlash against the return to autocratism in Russia leads to renewed militarisation, easily sustained by soaring oil prices and new reserves discovered in central Asia. Russia detonates the first nuclear weapon of the 3rd millenium in Chechenya after a leading Russian official dies there during peace talks. The blacklash ultimately leads to conflit across Asia, in which Russia annexes Belarus, heavily supports a civil war in Ukraine that tears the country in two, and wins Chinese support to quash widespread ethnic warfare in Central asia very selling the far-east. Ultimately securing a position of strength, Russia is able to secure her borders by 2050. She maintains tense relations with Europa, but is highly confident thanks to her increasingly solid alliance with the Chinese superstate.

China: Goes through serious growth pains in 2010-15 thanks to soaring oil prices but nontheless stays on track to become Asia's superpower. Settles favorably conflicts with Japan. Chinese power politics prevent the reunification of Korea after the fall of its regime in 2022, and bring it into its own sphere. China's rapid attack against rebellious Taiwan prompts outrage that decade, but Europe's and Russia's One-China policies isolate an increasingly bankrupt America. Successful naval clashes with the US navy allows the merger to be complete. Calm return to the area soon after.

Middle East: Following the US withdrawl from Iraq (2007), the country is torn by Shitte extremism led by Grand Ayyalotollah Mohammed Akh-Abyr. Seizing a shaky power in Baghdad, the Shiites violently repress the Sunnis, and let go of the Kurds in an attempt to gain regional allies. The birth of Kurdisthan prompts Syrian, Iranian and Turkish kurds to violently militate for union. To stay on track towards EU-membership, Turkey has to let them hold referendums which tear the country in half. Nuclear Iran lets go of her own kurds in return for the bulk of Iraq. Meanwhile, new regional US operations are needed to secure regional oil sources. Violently putting down the royal family of Arabia, US troops force the sessession of the small, oil-rich shiite parts of Arabia, in which they implement a direct protectorate to avoid their Iraqi mistakes. As it becomes increasingly difficult throughout the 2020s to maintain a democratic facade through these agressions, alternative energy finally begins to be pursued agressively, though Europe's and increasingly, China's, huge leads in the matter ultimately break US supremacy.

Pakistan: The world's first and hopefully last Nuclear War opposed Pakistan to India between 2066 and 2070. After nearly half a century of peace, Indian ethnic cleansing in Kashmir rapidly raised tensions, which led to a massive Pakistan first strike. Iranian expertise ultimately was crucial to the destruction of indian cities, and the death of China's last regional rival. The price to pay was steep, with the entire subcontinent in ruins, and both rivals rapidly exhausted. The Irano-Chinese agreement imposed to both sides a peace that let Kashmir go into Pakistan's hands.

Jordan: Following the Gaza Withdrawl (2005), Israel's stubborn refusal to let go of any more land and its obvious intent to destroy any hope of a real palestinian state raised more blood (2006-2008). The 60 years-old democracy struggled with dwindling birthrates and over the next decade, an increasingly unreliable and overstretched single ally. The major crisis of Iraq's collapse and Iran's expansion and display of nuclear power almost caused an all out war between the two states. Ultimately, cooler heads prevailed there, but time continued to work against Israel. Over the next 40 years, despite increasingly racist laws, the jewish identity of the state began to crumble, and her military answers cost her all international support. Wise moves by palestinian-majority Jordan allowed her to absorb the West bank, and make for her own the palestinian claims to all land between the two river and the sea. Increasingly Islamic Knessets gradually forced a series of weak minority governments in Israel to compromise and allow the return of hundreds of thousands of palestinians into Israel. In 2077, after the fall of the last laws preventing Arab vote were struck down, a 99.4% Arab-voter turnout elected the first and last majority government of Israel this millenia. The islamic arab party brought to power immediately dissolved the state, ordered the destruction of the flags, disbanded the IDF and announced union with Jordan. The brief civil war that ensued put an end to the 130 years old Sionist Experiment.

The USA: Increasingly dangerous military adventures brought by an era of American predominance at the end of the 20th Century led the country deep into debt and deeply shook her moral position at the helm of the western hemisphere. A long series of increasingly dubiously elected Republican governments led to the collapse of the a 250 years old dual party system. Increasing energy-difficulty all along the first half of the century led to adventures in Iraq, eastern Arabia, Vezenuela, military support for Albertan and Quebecois separatists, and shady support for russian autocracy. Increasingly isolationist towards a rising China after early and uncessful attempts to hinder it's growth, America had clearly lost it's sole superpower status. As Americans began to realize the road their sucessive governments had taken, despite a one-party media system and suspected heavy voting fraud, they cast aside both old parties and voted massively for new rising stars.

The Reformist Party closed all overseas bases, severed all ties with a legion of dictatorships rising all over Africa and Asia, offered global apologies, and converted 75% of the military budget into domestic projects that allowed normal life to return to over-polluted, and increasing power-less american cities. Through a series of deals, America restored now shattered transatlantic links with a Europa that had turned her back on her excesses, and complied with European requests for cleaner trade laws, after previous excesses to avoid bankruptcy had led to almost the end of trade between the old and new worlds. The return to genuine democracy in America from the brink of the abyss was probably the most remarkable event of the century, and prompted a return to sanity for a world flirting with the point of no-return.

Following perhaps the inspiring American exemple, the people of China marched on Tiananmen Square on the 100-anniversary of the massacre. Another 130-year experiment was cast aside that day, when nearly two billion chinese put an end to the communist regime in power. After several years of turmoil created by the vaccuum in Asia, fair elections led to a moderate socialist government and to the choice of a constitutional monarchy to lead the state.

[Imajin]

I would say that that map is rather implausible... If Canada has broken up to the extent that it has for some reason, then more of it would likely join the US.
And what is up with the Middle East? Jordan and Israel Unite? Is is Palestinian or Israeli?

[Romulus Augustulus]

Only a strategically shaved monkey with a turnip in his mouth (ala black adder) could think that Cornwall could survive.

What the hell kind of person do you think you are? I'm not even British, and I know that it's Baldrick that's a strategically shaved monkey. Furthermore, he wasn't a strategically shaved monkey with a turnip in his mouth, he was, and I quote, "...a monkey who has been strategically shaved and placed in a suit." HOW THE HELL CAN YOU POSSIBLY OVERLOOK THAT, YOU MORON!?

[Valamyr]

I would say that that map is rather implausible... If Canada has broken up to the extent that it has for some reason, then more of it would likely join the US.
And what is up with the Middle East? Jordan and Israel Unite? Is is Palestinian or Israeli?

I posted above the outlines of the scenario. I think its perfectly feasable. Given very serious energy problems, the US in this timeline actively support an independent Alberta and Quebec that they can use as sources of energy (oil/electricity), and then dont want to share needlessly with Central Canada (who's neither Quebec nor Alberta has very strong reasons to like, or even trade with ITTL).

[eschaton]

You didn't touch Africa, Latin America, or Oceania at all.

[Midgard]

How about the restored Ottoman Empire? 94 years is a long time, and Kemalism just died 10 years ago.

As far as the Ottoman Empire, I have a question. In the eyes of the people of the modern successor states of the Ottoman Empire, was the term "Ottoman" mostly tied to the House of Othman, or would it be possible to have the Ottoman Empire without the Osmanli? Granted, I am aware that the "Ottomans" is the term given to them by the outsiders, but if the Ottoman Empire (well, the one recognizably "Ottoman") were to reform in some shape or form, would it be "Ottoman" or would it be "Devlet-i Aliyye" (or some sort of a more "politically correct" version of the name)?

Given relative political, economical, and social success of Turkey in the next 20-70 years, with the EU membership and such, the Muslim states of the Middle East could be looking to Turkey as a model state, and indeed reintegrate into it as a Muslim version of the EU, dominated by Turkey, although with some of the other states increasing in importance as their economies and societies develop. Granted, that pretty much means no Byzantine Empire in the foreseeable and unforeseeable future :p but that is much more realistic than any of the "reborn Byzantium" FH scenarios that pop up on the web once in a rare while.

[Leo Caesius]

I very much doubt the Arab states will ever look to Turkey as a model - so much their loss. There's a lot of animosity there on both sides. The Arabs have a much more conflicted relationship with the Iranians - a mixture of love, hatred, and fear - whereas the Iranian view of Arabs is fairly straightforward, and similar to the Turkish view of Arabs. I could see an Iranian irredentist movement arise, which would be aimed in several directions - Azerbaijan, eastern Anatolia, the Persian Gulf, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, all of which were historically part of an Iranian state at one point or another, and (in Afghanistan and Pakistan at least) have large ethnically Iranian populations (in the broader sense of "Iranian"). The Pahlavis made some noises about Iran occupying only a portion of the "Iranian" plateau, surrounded by the plains of Mesopotamia, Turan, and Sind.

I know a lot of nationalist Turks who view the Ottomans as just another family, and do not identify with them. In fact, the House of Osman finds its largest base of support in Turkey today among the Islamists, some of whom revere them. I suspect that we won't be seeing an "Ottoman" empire arise without them coming back from Manhattan or wherever it is they hang their shingle these days.

[wkwillis]

Global warming runaway will make Siberia, Canada, Antarctica, Greenland, Spitzberg, the Falklands,the Faeroes, the Kerguelen archipelago, and South Georgia into independent nations in 94 years.
Greenland will still have interior ice fields, but it will be much warmer on the west, north, and south coasts because of the Arctic ocean being ice free. Greenland will be like Norway. The Gulf Stream keeps it more or less habitable for some forms of agriculture.
Even the Antarctic peninsula will be habitable in the sense that agriculture will be possible because of the maritime climate regulation. It extends farther north than most of Antarctica and is swept by the circumpolar air and water currents. It is pretty large in it's own right, more than large enough to have it's own economy.

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The head of the House of Osman lives in Manhattan. The issue of the Ottoman Empire and the Caliphate are very complicated; as Kemalism fades away other political solutions are possible for Turkey, but it's highly unlikely in the forseeable future for the Ottoman Empire to be restored. In the longer term, though, anything could happen (but a new Ottoman Empire is still unlikely) - it depends upon many things, like whether or not Turkey is accepted into the EU, the behavior of the US, etc.

The Ottoman period is undergoing reevaluation both in Turkey and beyond, as the static model of rise and decay becomes more and more insupportable. As the generation now in their 60s and 70s dies off, there is less and less tie to the Kemalist past. Islamism could lead to calls for a revival of the Caliphate, and there is really only one wat to turn if that happens...

In any case, I doubt many Arab states will be looking to Turkey as a model, unless it turns further to Islam and radically away from the West and Israel.

I'm going to be in a fairly religious area of Anatolia in a few weeks; I'm curious to see what attitudes are like there, as I really only have experience with the urban culture of Istanbul and Izmir.

As far as the Ottoman Empire, I have a question. In the eyes of the people of the modern successor states of the Ottoman Empire, was the term "Ottoman" mostly tied to the House of Othman, or would it be possible to have the Ottoman Empire without the Osmanli? Granted, I am aware that the "Ottomans" is the term given to them by the outsiders, but if the Ottoman Empire (well, the one recognizably "Ottoman") were to reform in some shape or form, would it be "Ottoman" or would it be "Devlet-i Aliyye" (or some sort of a more "politically correct" version of the name)?

Given relative political, economical, and social success of Turkey in the next 20-70 years, with the EU membership and such, the Muslim states of the Middle East could be looking to Turkey as a model state, and indeed reintegrate into it as a Muslim version of the EU, dominated by Turkey, although with some of the other states increasing in importance as their economies and societies develop. Granted, that pretty much means no Byzantine Empire in the foreseeable and unforeseeable future :p but that is much more realistic than any of the "reborn Byzantium" FH scenarios that pop up on the web once in a rare while.

[JimmyJimJam]

By 2099 maybe the Navarrese will change their position? Catalan maybe a separate nation?

Interesting concept of a 'Christian' US separatist state. I thought they already were in many senses? They have their own colleges and schools or do home schooling. Separating themselves from the state seems a way of life for them.

Are you joking?

[Weapon M]

There is a movement for a lot of Christians to move to South Carolina and "take over", with the threat of succession

[Thande]

That's "secession".

I think Central Asia needs watching when it comes to state formation or destruction over the next hundred years.

[Kurt_Steiner]

Perhaps medieval kingdom of Aragon could be restored ;)

but for sure, in 2099, Galicia, Basque Country and Catalonia may be independent. Even Navarre, but away from the Basque Country.

What about Brittany?

And Bayern?

[Thande]

Corsica. `

[Susano]

I once read that by many definitions, the Order of the Knights of St. John's HQ in Rome has the qualities of statehood, so at two acres, is the smallest country in the world.
From what Ive understood, many consider the Order itself to be asouvereign entty. However it would be one _without_ state territory (the buildings in Roem are still Italian - or was it Vaticanese? Something like this), so they would be the smallest souvereign entity with exactly 0km2...

[Leo Caesius]

From what Ive understood, many consider the Order itself to be asouvereign entty. However it would be one _without_ state territory (the buildings in Roem are still Italian - or was it Vaticanese? Something like this), so they would be the smallest souvereign entity with exactly 0km2...In that case, it would be like certain of the older American Universities that are officially sovereign, having their own police force, maintaining their own lands, and paying no taxes to the US.

[Dave Howery]

I could undestand Scotland breaking free, if they handle independence economically. Same for Quebec (or even Newfoundland, for that matter). But would they want to leave? And why Australia in halves?
no good reason.... I just like messing around with the Commonwealth... :)

[Dave Howery]

I'm pretty skeptical about the US breaking up along religious lines. Religion in the US tends to swell and decline a lot. Go back to the 60's... who'd have thought then that in 40 years, the US would have a politically significant radical religious right movement? 40 years from now, politics in the (still united) US will probably be completely different from what they are now...

[MerryPrankster]

I like Valamyr's scenario. His end-of-Zionism bit resembles what Buchanan and Sharon and their ilk think will happen to Israel if it doesn't abandon the West Bank.

[Forum Lurker]

The thing is, if even Sharon realizes that the West Bank must be abandoned, who can believe that it will not be? The only question is how they get the settlers out.

[MerryPrankster]

The thing is, if even Sharon realizes that the West Bank must be abandoned, who can believe that it will not be? The only question is how they get the settlers out.

I think the current plan is to abandon most of the West Bank but keep some of the most settler-heavy areas. Creating a viable Palestinian state in such a situation might be a wee bit tricky, especially if there are contiguity issues.

In one of my future history scenarios, I have the settlers of the West Bank try to pull a Rhodesia, and fail nastily. :(

[wkwillis]

I'm pretty skeptical about the US breaking up along religious lines. Religion in the US tends to swell and decline a lot. Go back to the 60's... who'd have thought then that in 40 years, the US would have a politically significant radical religious right movement? 40 years from now, politics in the (still united) US will probably be completely different from what they are now...
Heinlein did. He understood cycles pretty well. See Howe and Strauss in 'Generations, the History of America's Future'.
And there was a Jesus Freak dippy uptrend in the sixties, right along with the hippies. I was there. I knew Jesus freaks in the northern part of the US. Those people are running America now.

[MerryPrankster]

WK,

I was under the impression the "Jesus freaks" were just Christian hippies. The Liberals Like Christ folks (http://www.liberalslikechrist.org/index.htm) seem more akin to them than the modern Religious Right does.

Since you were there, what were they like?

[wkwillis]

WK,

I was under the impression the "Jesus freaks" were just Christian hippies. The Liberals Like Christ folks (http://www.liberalslikechrist.org/index.htm) seem more akin to them than the modern Religious Right does.

Since you were there, what were they like?
George Bush, Jr, but honest.
I just knew the ones in Poughkeepsie, New York. About 1970. They came along later than the hippies in Poughkeepsie, and the hippies came later to the south.

[Leo Caesius]

I was under the impression the "Jesus freaks" were just Christian hippies. The Liberals Like Christ folks (http://www.liberalslikechrist.org/index.htm) seem more akin to them than the modern Religious Right does.Have you seen this, MP? I thought you'd get a kick out of it:

Http://www.grassrootdems.org/images/projects/Jesuslarge.jpg

[Forum Lurker]

I think the current plan is to abandon most of the West Bank but keep some of the most settler-heavy areas. Creating a viable Palestinian state in such a situation might be a wee bit tricky, especially if there are contiguity issues.

In one of my future history scenarios, I have the settlers of the West Bank try to pull a Rhodesia, and fail nastily. :(

It's going to depend on who's in charge, as to what happens to the settlers. Some will let them stay there, some will offer economic incentive to move, some will attempt to use the military to evacuate them by force if necessary (and that'd be ugly as hell); if I were setting policy, and somehow had full Knesset backing for my every move, I'd simply give them an easily-managed deadline (say, a year and a half), after which the land would legally be turned over to Palestine, and the Palestinian government would be responsible for charging them with tresspassing if it so chose.

[Redbeard]

We'll see hundreds of city states, most formally being part of the old national states, but not really giving a damn, and anyway running the show. Some, like Ørestad (former Copenhagen-Malmoe) even has legs in two different nations. The citizens of these cities will be the ruling classes, but citizenship not something you just get. The poors of the early 21st century have long since been expelled from the cities by rising real estate prices, but each morning rural people que to enter the city for low paid service jobs and in the hope of once gaining citizenship.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[Weapon M]

That's "secession".

I think Central Asia needs watching when it comes to state formation or destruction over the next hundred years.


I know, my stupid keyboard stopped working, so I couldn't fix it. They propose something similar to this right here. (http://www.freestateproject.org/)


Here is a link to a WorldNetDaily article about it. (http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38571)

Oh what the hell, here is their actual website. (http://christianexodus.org/)

[The Sandman]

What about China? If, or more likely when, the economy slows down and the CCP collapses, China will probably fragment. You'll get Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, probably a division of the Chinese heartland into the more rural interior and the super-urbanized, richer coast, plus Taiwan as independent.

And why not throw in Manchuria? The former industrial heartland of China isn't exactly doing spectacularly under the Communist government.

I mean, everyone else here is thinking small, turning single countries into two or maybe three smaller ones at most. China gives you seven separate nations to play with!

[simonbp]

I once read that by many definitions, the Order of the Knights of St. John's HQ in Rome has the qualities of statehood, so at two acres, is the smallest country in the world.

They technically have observer status at the UN...

Simon ;)

[eschaton]

Every year that passes makes a Chinese breakup less and less likely, because Han are migrating to Tibet, Xinjiang, ect at unprecedented numbers. Oh, and the Manchus have lost all seperate ethnic identity...no one speaks the language anymore. They're all just Chinese now, more or less.

I think it's far more likely that we are going to see more fracturing of India in the Northeast section, past the 'chicken's neck' Most of those provinces are either pagan or evangelical christian, they don't speak Indo-European or Dravidian languages, and they have active seperatist movements currently. Manipur or Mizoram, or even Nagaland I could see as independent states quite easilly.

[Molobo]

I think it's far more likely that we are going to see more fracturing of India in the Northeast section, past the 'chicken's neck' Most of those provinces are either pagan or evangelical christian, they don't speak Indo-European or Dravidian languages, and they have active seperatist movements currently. Manipur or Mizoram, or even Nagaland I could see as independent states quite easilly.
There are already seperatists movements there, and historically this region wasn't part of Indian state before joined with it by the British when they left.

[Ar Skoul]

Corsica. `
Corsica is a mess, but nationalists haven't made ay significant progress for decades. To make things worse they are divided (the kind of division that uses guns) and the island is economically dependent from the continent.
Tahiti : thy have just elected an independentist president.
New Caledonia : likely
Basque Country : probably only a matter of time but it will include neither Navarra no the the French part.
Savoie : there is an idependentist movement and secession is supported by one fourth of the population. It is unlikely to succeed, however since independists are mostly rural and aged.
Occitania : there are nationalists movement, but they are more marginal than communists in the US. Very unlikely
Flanders : may secede from Belgium, the French part is likely to stay French despite the existence of few local nationalists.
Britany: support for secession is the same as in Savoie but comes from the urban youth and is fueled by a dynamic culture. There is no serious independentist movement (one is fascist and the other far-left) but the autonomist party has gained a foothold in the local government. The affirmation of cultural identity has become popular among the local meanstream parties (at the exception of the locally marginal National Front and of the defeated UMP) but outright scession is unlikely unless sombody does something very dumb and things spirall out of control.
Catalonia : even more likely than with Basque Country, but it will be more gradual.
Greenland : very likely if the european integration continues. Greenland will just stay out
Faeroe : very possible, they nearly did in 1945. Now they have a very large autonomy already and what they don't have is either irrelevant for a small state (defense, diplomacy) or likey to be taken over by Bruxelles.
Kaliningrad : why not?
New Caledonia : uncertain but possible

[fhaessig]

Corsica is a mess, but nationalists haven't made ay significant progress for decades. To make things worse they are divided (the kind of division that uses guns) and the island is economically dependent from the continent.
Tahiti : thy have just elected an independentist president.


Corsica : not to mention that only 9% of the corsican population have independantist leanings ( as opposed to autonomism ). That's a clear minority, a very vocal (and otherwise noisy ) one, but a minority nonetheless.

Tahiti : define state. I'd say that the only thing that french polynesia lacks are a foreign diplomacy, an army and a working budget ( that is working without a lot of subsidies ). OTOH, they have a government, parliament and vore their own laws ( french laws are not applicable there ).

Britanny : I doubt the seriousness of the independance movement as opposed to autonomy.

Alsace? In a generation or more, at least. Or if necessited by EU policies ( Capital of EU must not be located in a major state ).

[fortyseven]

don't most people think that Europe won't have any nations anymore just sub-nation states so there won't be any major states to have the capital in. Until then, I guess a small country like Luxembourg or Lichtenstein would do.

[fhaessig]

don't most people think that Europe won't have any nations anymore just sub-nation states so there won't be any major states to have the capital in. Until then, I guess a small country like Luxembourg or Lichtenstein would do.

Currently, EU has 3 Capitals.

One for the bureaucracy ( as stand-in for the executive ) : Brussels
One for the Judiciary : Luxembourg
One for the legislative : Strasbourg.

My guess is that the final capital will be one of those three, with Brussels currently being the most likely ( but resisted ) and Luxembourg the last.

[Flocculencio]

Just a small point but still-

Expansion of Malaysia:

At some point in the next century it is likely that Singapore may have to rejoin the Federation of Malaysia. As Malaysia catches up to the city state technologically and infrastructure wise, Singapore will lose the ability to survive as an independent nation. If Indonesia breaks up, Singapore will need to form a closer association with the only other reasonably democratic nation it borders. Also, if the Kra Canal is put into operation, Singapore will lose it's attractiveness as a port.

[Leo Caesius]

Not to mention those southern Malay provinces of Thailand that have been in the news so much lately.

[Scarecrow]

independent Quebec? Australia splits in two? Scotland becomes free?

I just love breaking up the Commonwealth... :)

heh heh heh ha. Yeah an Independent Westralia, somehow.
*sigh* a man can dream though, a man can dream...