Four alternate Americas: Which would be more successful

[Typo]

First comparison:
1. An US in which the deep south leaves/stays out of the union before 1812
2. An US in which New England leaves/stays out of the union before/around 1812

Would 1 or 2 be more successful, how would history go in each one? Keep in mind the Slave/Free state balance, among other things.

Second comparison:
3. Same as 1, but Virginia joins the deep south in some sort of confederation
4. same as 2, but New York joins the New Englanders

The states take the western territories belonging to them in each case.

Basically, is the US better off with middle+south or middle+northeast

[Burton K Wheeler]

It's really not even a question. 1, and then 3.

[GreatScottMarty]

i'm with Wheeler 1&3

[Nivek]

the two and four scenario exist, are the Decades of Darkness

http://decadesofdarkness.alternatehistory.com/

(shamesly publicity)

and that gave me a interesting question

[benjamin]

Options 1 and 3 are more successful in almost every measure of national power.

Industry, Wealth, Population, Invention, Immigration, Trade, Maritime Power

I hope this helps in some way.

Good Luck,
Benjamin

[Atreus]

1 and 3. The northern industry wins out.

[Glen]

First comparison:
1. An US in which the deep south leaves/stays out of the union before 1812
2. An US in which New England leaves/stays out of the union before/around 1812

Would 1 or 2 be more successful, how would history go in each one? Keep in mind the Slave/Free state balance, among other things.

Depends how you define 'Deep South' and 'New England', but in general I would say the US of #1 (which obviously we see in my Southern America Act of 1774 (http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=147248) family of timelines).

Second comparison:
3. Same as 1, but Virginia joins the deep south in some sort of confederation
4. same as 2, but New York joins the New Englanders

The states take the western territories belonging to them in each case.

Basically, is the US better off with middle+south or middle+northeast

Hmmm....tougher. Still, I'd go with #3 (essentially #1 sans Virginia and Kentucky?), though we lose the stabilizing influence of Washington, which is a bigger negative then losing the state itself in some ways. But overall the Northeast is going to be more important than the South to US development in the 19th Century.

[Lord Grattan]

Repeat . . .

1 & 3

[Thande]

Define "successful". Consider Decades of Darkness. Is the USA or New England of that timeline the more "successful"? One is a relatively minor power, but has social values that coincide with what most people on here believe; the other is a vast military and economic juggernaut but is also a slaveholding hellhole.

[Minchandre]

Losing Virginia hurts the USA a lot, but not as much as New York. Plus, who needs the Deep South? 1&3 for certain.

[Burton K Wheeler]

Define "successful". Consider Decades of Darkness. Is the USA or New England of that timeline the more "successful"? One is a relatively minor power, but has social values that coincide with what most people on here believe; the other is a vast military and economic juggernaut but is also a slaveholding hellhole.

It's not like DoD America is really the most plausible ATL, though.

[Glen]

Define "successful". Consider Decades of Darkness. Is the USA or New England of that timeline the more "successful"? One is a relatively minor power, but has social values that coincide with what most people on here believe; the other is a vast military and economic juggernaut but is also a slaveholding hellhole.

USA is more successful, New England is more where you'd want to live.

It's like asking which is more successful, China or Switzerland?

[Glen]

It's not like DoD America is really the most plausible ATL, though.

True enough, true enough.

[Glen]

It seems as if 1 & 3 are carrying the day.

[jycee]

Thing is that the Union falls apart prior to 1812 for the POD's. Before the 1850s the success of the US relied heavily on the south both economically and militarily.
I am assuming prosperity means being economically and militarily developed.So China trumps Switzerland. (Though these cases are less extreme).

In the case of #3 the Union looses the south plus Virginia (I'd imagine in this case it also looses Kentucky). There is a possibility that Virginia will also claim other territory in the west. Even if it does not get the territory this southern federation will fight and be a nuisance on the north. Secondly with the south gone the US looses most of its expansionist drive. By 1812 the US has not acquired anything of the Pacific coast and the north alone (doubtfully even the whole union) could take England in a fight for Oregon. It could try to take Northern California but it will likely be with a purchase not a war since the logistics of such war would be ridiculous.

In the case of #2 the US looses New England but keeps New York. This is not as bad as it seems and is likely the best option after #1. In 1812 New England was not quite the industrial powerhouse it will become (the war of 1812 is what made it so). New England will likely be a prosperous, yet small, country. But the remainder of the States can likely develop a new industrial heart. And it gets to keep the expansionist drive it needs to reach the Pacific. Militarily N.E. will not be able to compete against the US and it will become quite dependent economically in the future.

#4 is similar to #2 (it is actually the DoD scenario). But the US looses New York. It might still expand and successfully reach the Pacific but it looses tremendous industrial potential. With New York, New England also becomes a stronger and less dependent rival. Which will likely have interests in expanding as well. This is the scenario where the US will be most like China; economically and militarily powerful but at the same time have vast undeveloped areas.

#1 Probably the best option. The US looses some expansionist drive but not all. It will likely still take Texas and it could purchase parts of California and take parts of Oregon.

I think it goes #1, #2, #4, #3