Challenge: modern-day Japanese Taiwan

[mcdo]

As I'm sure you all know, Taiwan was a Japanese colony for 50 years, from 1895 until the end of WWII, when Japanese sovereign territory reverted to the four main home islands plus minor outlying islands. The challenge, then is to have Taiwan remain a part of the Japanese empire (or state, should you choose) up until the present day. The PoD should be no earlier than 1919, when the first civilian governor for the island was appointed.

My own thought is that Japan's total defeat in WWII will have to be avoided, but I am not looking for a TL where Taiwan is part of a Japanese empire that spans half the globe. I would prefer a Taiwan that either has home rule or is simply made up of a couple of normal Japanese prefectures--a Taiwan that is a reasonably happy part of Japan, with an independence movement no more powerful/popular than the one on OTL Okinawa. Bonus points if Japan retains Taiwan while giving up control over Korea, Manchuria, and maybe the Kwangtung leased territory. Is this plausible?

[Wolfman]

I'm not sure, but it sounds interesting.

[Iori]

Easy really.
IOTL their was a great deal of talk among the Japanese government about making Taiwan a Prefecture, which would have made
it an integral part of Japan and resulted in it being equal to the other home-islands.

Now, let's say this is done in 1925, and theirs a fair bit more Japanese immigration to Taiwan resulting in it having a Japanese
civil population that would simply be impossible to force to leave.

Now at the end of WW2 Taiwan, with a large Japanese population and a native population that has been (purposefully) treated
well and thus has no wanting to become part of China and it being an integral part of Japan, rather than a colony or territory
their's a very high chance it would remain Japanese, though their would likely be a referendum.

[Desmond Hume]

Interesting butterflies could result from this. Supposing the Chinese Civil War goes more or less OTL, where does the KMT go in 1949? Would they be able to hold on to some part of southern China? Would they be trapped on the mainland and annhiliated? Would the possibility of their complete annihilation give the USA more incentive to intervene in China?

[Wolfman]

Good question.

[mcdo]

Interesting butterflies could result from this. Supposing the Chinese Civil War goes more or less OTL, where does the KMT go in 1949? Would they be able to hold on to some part of southern China? Would they be trapped on the mainland and annhiliated? Would the possibility of their complete annihilation give the USA more incentive to intervene in China?

Thanks for all the replies, guys. If the Chinese Civil War goes as OTL, the KMT could be in a bit of trouble. The only other large island is Hainan, and IIRC it already had some local communist activity. The last two KMT strongholds were in the South, across from Taiwan, and the area around Shanghai. Perhaps the KMT could hold on to a major port, either Shanghai or near the Pearl River delta, where they would receive foreign aid. I think the Hong Kong area would be better, as it would be slighty less surrounded. With a large land border, though, the KMT would need massive aid to survive. If the Anglo-Americans are seen to be propping up Free China even more than OTL, relations with Mao will likely be even worse. It would be interesting to see what happens if the Korean conflict starts on schedule if the CCW is still going strong...

[mcdo]

Thanks for all the replies, guys. If the Chinese Civil War goes as OTL, the KMT could be in a bit of trouble. The only other large island is Hainan, and IIRC it already had some local communist activity. The last two KMT strongholds were in the South, across from Taiwan, and the area around Shanghai. Perhaps the KMT could hold on to a major port, either Shanghai or near the Pearl River delta, where they would receive foreign aid. I think the Hong Kong area would be better, as it would be slighty less surrounded. With a large land border, though, the KMT would need massive aid to survive. If the Anglo-Americans are seen to be propping up Free China even more than OTL, relations with Mao will likely be even worse. It would be interesting to see what happens if the Korean conflict starts on schedule if the CCW is still going strong...

One other thing I just thought of: when the KMT arrived on Taiwan, they basically stripped the island bare of all the infrastructure built up during the Japanese period, and sent it over to China to feed the war machine. All of that will have to be replaced if the KMT is to have a fighting chance.

[AmIndHistoryAuthor]

I'm curious to hear from those who know Asian history far better than I do. What would happen to the Atayal under these PODs?

What would the Imperial Japanese govt's attitude be towards them for their part in the Takasago Volunteers? Without a flood of refugees from China's civil war, would they fare better than IOTL?

[Iori]

I'm curious to hear from those who know Asian history far better than I do. What would happen to the Atayal under these PODs?

What would the Imperial Japanese govt's attitude be towards them for their part in the Takasago Volunteers? Without a flood of refugees from China's civil war, would they fare better than IOTL?

The native Taiwanese would most likely be alot better off, however it' likely that by the modern day distinct Taiwanese Aboriginals would make
up even less of the population than they do OTL (2%) as a result of immigration and assimilation into Japanese society/culture.

[Susano]

Well, Im not exactly an Asia expert either, but it is quite obvious that the massive influx of mainland chinese did not exactly help the Taiwanese natives. And I know to enforce their claim as the true Chinese state the KMT cracked down quite hard on the Island Chinese (who speak another Chinese language than Mandarin, a Min language, cant remember which one though) and any display of their culture. I could imagine it was much teh same with the Natives. Also, Japan developed Taiwanese kana, primarily of course again for the Island Chinese, but seocndarily also for the Taiwanese natives...

Iori: As said, remember the several millions mainland chiense who settled over as part of the KMT flight. Taiwan would be lesser settled, and hence the natives would make up a larger percentage.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Well, Im not exactly an Asia expert either, but it is quite obvious that the massive influx of mainland chinese did not exactly help the Taiwanese natives. And I know to enforce their claim as the true Chinese state the KMT cracked down quite hard on the Island Chinese (who speak another Chinese language than Mandarin, a Min language, cant remember which one though) and any display of their culture. I could imagine it was much teh same with the Natives. Also, Japan developed Taiwanese kana, primarily of course again for the Island Chinese, but seocndarily also for the Taiwanese natives...

Iori: As said, remember the several millions mainland chiense who settled over as part of the KMT flight. Taiwan would be lesser settled, and hence the natives would make up a larger percentage.
Hakka and Hoklo (sp?) were the two main Chinese languages spoken before the KMT invasion. One of them is often referred to as 'Taiwanese', but I don't remember which.

[Susano]

Hakka and Hoklo (sp?) were the two main Chinese languages spoken before the KMT invasion. One of them is often referred to as 'Taiwanese', but I don't remember which.

Hokkien, that was it! But yes, thats a Min language. More prelevant on Taiwan than Hakka, so if one is "Taiwanese" it would be Hokkien, but thats (like Hakka, too) also spoken on the mainland, so it would be kinda incorrect. And its still the main language on Taiwan, though standard Mandarin comes in second now.

[Iori]

Iori: As said, remember the several millions mainland chiense who settled over as part of the KMT flight. Taiwan would be lesser settled, and hence the natives would make up a larger percentage.

True, however I'm willing to bet their would be alot more assimilation, something that was happening already OTL, I was meaning that people who primairly speak a native language and practice native cultural habits would be a very tiny minority.

[DuQuense]

Your POD has to be in the Cairo Conference http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cairo_Conference.

IIRC Chaing and FDR were discussing the Return of Chinese territory, and Chiang said - And Formosa -, to which FDR repleyed - of Course -
And in one little throw away sentence the US & Britian agreed to tiawan being given to China, despite having initially having agreed to a WW1 cut off Date for when Japan got the territory in Question.

FDR was suffering from the Illness that would be even more evident a month later at Tehran.
So Your POD would have to be FDR not being Sick, and much more in Charge during the Conference.
Chiang is forced to compromise more, and FDR doesn't give away Formosa.

Course FDR not being Sick would also have major Butterflies at Tehran.

[NothingNow]

the Shōwa period ends up as an extension of the Taisho period due to japan not establishing universal suffrage 1925 and putting the Peace Preservation Law of 1925 into place. this helps to prevent Japan's slide into totalitarianism following the 1926 recession. So the Diet chops up "Useless" parts of the IJN in the depression, re-tasking it with defending the Existing Empire. So no war with the US and thus Japan doesn't lose Formosa.

[lothaw]

Yeah, all you'd have to do is have a negotiated peace with Japan. If the Pacific War looks to be one of attrition, coupled with some German victories in Europe, it's concievable that FDR and Britain would agree to status quo ante bellem December 7th, 1941 so they can concentrate on Hitler.

[mcdo]

Ok, so a lot of people seem to think this is plausible. What butterflies come from this? How does the CCW play out if Taiwan (and possibly Manchuria?) Are still Japanese? Does a white peace after a lon, expensive war discredit the military in the mind of the Japanese public, or do the generals and admirals claim that they were winning when soft civilian elements betrayed them at the peace talks? If Japan still has a strong military, what impact does this have on the Cold War?

[Valdemar II]

Easy really.
IOTL their was a great deal of talk among the Japanese government about making Taiwan a Prefecture, which would have made
it an integral part of Japan and resulted in it being equal to the other home-islands.

Now, let's say this is done in 1925, and theirs a fair bit more Japanese immigration to Taiwan resulting in it having a Japanese
civil population that would simply be impossible to force to leave.

Now at the end of WW2 Taiwan, with a large Japanese population and a native population that has been (purposefully) treated
well and thus has no wanting to become part of China and it being an integral part of Japan, rather than a colony or territory
their's a very high chance it would remain Japanese, though their would likely be a referendum.

Honestly it doesn't matter how big the Japanese population are if the Chinese get Taiwan. If WWII showed us something it was that no civil population was too big to be expelled.

[DuQuense]

IOTL their was a great deal of talk among the Japanese government about making Taiwan a Prefecture, which would have made
it an integral part of Japan and resulted in it being equal to the other home-islands.This wouldn't have mattered -- Karafuto had been a Prefecture since 1906, and the Allies gave it to Russia without any qualms.

[Iori]

This wouldn't have mattered -- Karafuto had been a Prefecture since 1906, and the Allies gave it to Russia without any qualms.

Well that's more because the USSR had occupied it and was'nt going to leave, so..

[mcdo]

The immediate post-war certainly did see forced massive civilian population shifts, including millions of Japanese colonists. However, even in OTL, the Americans were not exactly thrilled about handing it over to China. Remember, declerations notwithstanding, the KMT were only "occupying Taiwan on behalf of the allies". More importantly, the San Francisco Peace Treaty only states that the island is no longer Japanese, not that the island goes to China. If Taiwan had been more fully integrated as normal Japanese territory, it might not have been seen as colonial territory like Korea or Manchuria.

[Hendryk]

Interesting butterflies could result from this. Supposing the Chinese Civil War goes more or less OTL, where does the KMT go in 1949? Would they be able to hold on to some part of southern China? Would they be trapped on the mainland and annhiliated?
If they use Hainan as a fallback base, my guess is that the Nationalists would have a credible chance of getting the place under control.

Would the possibility of their complete annihilation give the USA more incentive to intervene in China?
Probably not. In OTL the US basically washed their hands of the Chinese civil war after Marshall's failure to negotiate a ceasefire, and it took the Korean War to reassess the usefulness of keeping a rump Nationalist China around. If the Nationalists don't have anywhere to go, by 1950 it will be too late to salvage them except as a government-in-exile of little usefulness and legitimacy (and a few thousand troops in Burma).

Generally speaking, by 1945 the bendiren population in Taiwan no longer really considered itself politically Chinese (nor did it consider itself a single community: there were Hakka, Fujianese, etc.), and in OTL wasn't all that thrilled about being summarily put under Nationalist rule, especially considering how violent and corrupt the first governor handpicked by Jiang Jieshi turned out to be. By then many elements of Japanese culture had seeped into the local culture, and it's possible that the bendiren would eventually have assimilated into Japanese culture, retaining the odd idiosyncrasy.

[Chris S]

Your POD has to be in the Cairo Conference http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cairo_Conference.

IIRC Chaing and FDR were discussing the Return of Chinese territory, and Chiang said - And Formosa -, to which FDR repleyed - of Course -
And in one little throw away sentence the US & Britian agreed to tiawan being given to China, despite having initially having agreed to a WW1 cut off Date for when Japan got the territory in Question.

FDR was suffering from the Illness that would be even more evident a month later at Tehran.
So Your POD would have to be FDR not being Sick, and much more in Charge during the Conference.
Chiang is forced to compromise more, and FDR doesn't give away Formosa.

Course FDR not being Sick would also have major Butterflies at Tehran.


Actually the Cairo Conference only seemed to agree on a WWI cutoff date for territory Japan acquired out in the Pacific (with the apparent meaning of what would become the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands). If the Allies had only agreed on a strict WWI date for all Japanese territory then there would have been no mention of Korea. In addition the phrasing "Japan will also be expelled from all other territories which she has taken by violence and greed" is ambiguious enough that it could apply to everything outside of the four Home Islands with some being taken by violence (e.g. in Sino-Japanese wars and Russo-Japanese wars) and by "greed" (anything obtained by treaty but without violence).

Even if FDR wasn't sick it is highly likely that Formosa would have been assigned to China anyway, if not at Cairo, then later.

[Chris S]

The immediate post-war certainly did see forced massive civilian population shifts, including millions of Japanese colonists. However, even in OTL, the Americans were not exactly thrilled about handing it over to China. Remember, declerations notwithstanding, the KMT were only "occupying Taiwan on behalf of the allies". More importantly, the San Francisco Peace Treaty only states that the island is no longer Japanese, not that the island goes to China. If Taiwan had been more fully integrated as normal Japanese territory, it might not have been seen as colonial territory like Korea or Manchuria.

Well declarations can't be "not withstanding". The Cairo Conference explicitly included Manchuria, Formosa and the Pescadores as territories that "shall be restored to China". Unless we take it to mean that Manchuria technically isn't part of China today, then all those arguments about Taiwan's supposed ambiguous legal status don't hold much water. In addition, for those arguments to be believed it would also mean that both Koreas are technically terra nullius since neither Korea was even invited to San Francisco peace conference, much less signed the treaty.

The idea that Taiwan is only occupied by China on behalf of the Allies but wasn't transferred also overlooks the 1952 Treaty of Taipei between the ROC and Japan which bascially copied the 1951 San Francisco Treaty (including it's terms that all pre-WWII treaties, conventions and agreements concluded were nullified unless otherwise agreed between Japan and the party in question - that alone is enough to basically overturn all treaties transferring Taiwan and the Pescadores from China to Japan and transferring Korea, S. Sakhalin, the Kuriles to Japan from their prior statuses) but the Taipei treaty also included a provision for all the current and former inhabitants of Taiwan and the Pescadores who were or are of Chinese nationality as having ROC nationality and extending that nationality to their descendants.

So even if those ideas did hold water, it would mean that the land of Taiwan didn't belong to anyone but that basically all the residents on the island and their descendants are Chinese nationals. A most curious situation, were it to have any basis in fact.

[Chris S]

It would be very difficult to get Taiwan to remain part of Japan after anything like our WWII. Essentially one would need to:

1. Have no WWII or at least no Pacific Theatre/War

2. Have a negotiated end to the Pacific War

3. Use a POD from before 1900 in which Taiwan is never ever settled or governed by any Chinese and the first Asians to arrive after the Taiwanese aborginals are the Japanese. Thus Taiwan would be considered one of the Home Islands that had always been Japanese.

[mcdo]

The idea that Taiwan is only occupied by China on behalf of the Allies but wasn't transferred also overlooks the 1952 Treaty of Taipei between the ROC and Japan which bascially copied the 1951 San Francisco Treaty (including it's terms that all pre-WWII treaties, conventions and agreements concluded were nullified unless otherwise agreed between Japan and the party in question - that alone is enough to basically overturn all treaties transferring Taiwan and the Pescadores from China to Japan and transferring Korea, S. Sakhalin, the Kuriles to Japan from their prior statuses) but the Taipei treaty also included a provision for all the current and former inhabitants of Taiwan and the Pescadores who were or are of Chinese nationality as having ROC nationality and extending that nationality to their descendants.

So even if those ideas did hold water, it would mean that the land of Taiwan didn't belong to anyone but that basically all the residents on the island and their descendants are Chinese nationals. A most curious situation, were it to have any basis in fact.

Well, obviously both the declarations and the treaty need to be given quite a bit of weight, too. However, I didn't make up the bit about the KMT occupying the island--that is the wording the US choose to use. Why use that phrasing, unless you do want to leave youreself some room for diplomatic manuever? Also, when CKC came to Taiwan, he gave a speech saying that his arrival marked the "reincorporation" Taiwan into China. Following the speech, the US complained, citing the line about Taiwan. Again,why?

I am not going to argue that Taiwan is or should be independant, this is not the place for that. I simply wish to point out that the reason some scholars claim that Taiwan's status is ambigous is because some of the statements issued by the US seem to contradict one another. One explanation for this is that not all officials wanted it to go to China. If this is true, then it should be possible to create a postwar Japanese Taiwan, perhaps through a negotiated peace (in a very different Pacific War).

[The Sandman]

How about the US taking Taiwan (perhaps instead of MacArthur's overemphasis on liberating the Philippines) and it ending up with the same post-war status as Okinawa?

If you have this kick off early enough in 1944, you might even help the Nationalists out by butterflying away Operation Ichigo; with Taiwan a warzone, the Japanese supply lines to China are going to be under constant attack by US naval forces.

[DuQuense]

This wouldn't have mattered -- Karafuto had been a Prefecture since 1906, and the Allies gave it to Russia without any qualms.
Well that's more because the USSR had occupied it and wasn't going to leave, so. No it was given to Russia in 1944, long before the Russian Invasion.

I still think your POD would be something to do with Cario Conference.
Maybe Chaing not making it there. Maybe FDR not making it. Heck, Lets kill both of them on the way to the Conference, really mess with the Post War World.

[Chris S]

Well, obviously both the declarations and the treaty need to be given quite a bit of weight, too. However, I didn't make up the bit about the KMT occupying the island--that is the wording the US choose to use. Why use that phrasing, unless you do want to leave youreself some room for diplomatic manuever? Also, when CKC came to Taiwan, he gave a speech saying that his arrival marked the "reincorporation" Taiwan into China. Following the speech, the US complained, citing the line about Taiwan. Again,why?

I am not going to argue that Taiwan is or should be independant, this is not the place for that. I simply wish to point out that the reason some scholars claim that Taiwan's status is ambigous is because some of the statements issued by the US seem to contradict one another. One explanation for this is that not all officials wanted it to go to China. If this is true, then it should be possible to create a postwar Japanese Taiwan, perhaps through a negotiated peace (in a very different Pacific War).

I know you didn't make up that phrasing, but a lot of what is read into it is because some scholars are attempting to read between the lines when there really isn't anything there. Besides the countless number of other clauses which basically douse cold water on the notion that Taiwan is terra nullius (such as the clauses nullifying all pre-war treaties by Japan which by necessity would automatically cause any territory acquired by treaty to revert to it's former status - so Taiwan to China, S. Sakhalin to Russia, Korea becoming at least somewhat independent, if in name only), a much simpler explanation than what has been proferred is that there is often little need for the treaty framers to have bothered saying who Japan was renouncing "X" and "Y" territory in favouring of if such territory had a previous owner. So the treaty says nothing of who Japan is renouncing Taiwan or South Sakhalin in favour of because automatically it would be renounced in favour of the previous occupying power. On the other hand the treaty explicitly mentions Korea being independent (since prior to Japan's claim it was not completely independent and was under Chinese and then Japanese suzerainty and the Allies, including China had no interest in reverting to that situation) and also explicitly mentions who Japan is renouncing the Bonin and Ryukyu Islands in favour of (i.e. the US in the form of trusteeship) since the US was not the previous controlling power and in the case of the Bonin's there wasn't any real previous controlling power to beginwith (various European countries could have put forward half-credible claims but they would be very, very weak claims).

I point this out, because it is clear that even if not all officials in the US wanted Taiwan to go to China, it is extremely unlikely that any of them wanted it to remain with Japan. So even if it was true that the phrasing used was because of disagreements in the US government, that doesn't make it any more likely that a post-war Japanese Taiwan can be created, at least not using the basis of OTL documents such as Cairo Conference Communique or the Treaty of San Francisco. As you pointed out, it would probably require a different Pacific War, one with a negotiated peace. Better yet it would be much more likely to happen with no Pacific War. But neither of those two possibilities hinge upon any what the 1951 Treaty did or did not say and why it was written the way it was.




I still think your POD would be something to do with Cario Conference.
Maybe Chaing not making it there. Maybe FDR not making it. Heck, Lets kill both of them on the way to the Conference, really mess with the Post War World.

Altering the Cairo Conference is unlikely to do it, unless the Cairo Conference was focused on something entirely different such as how to negotiate an end to the war in the Pacific, not on what Japan was to lose once she unconditionally surrendered. For that it would require more than just a simple change of leaders at Cairo, it would require a very different Pacific Campaign from 1941-1943 and possibly even from 1937 when things started between Japan and China.

[mcdo]

Ok, how about something like this: Manchuria is conquered on schedule, but due to <insert PoD here> it is even more costly in blood and treasure than in OTL, somewhat discrediting both the current army leadership and foreign adventurism in the eyes of the public. Japan never joins the Anti-Comintern Pact. The armies in Manchuria, bowing to public opinion and (somewhat) to the leadership in Tokyo, draw down to garrison strength, preventing a wider war in China or Soviet border skirmishes. The Navy largely escapes the negative feelings associated with the Army, but the prevailing mood is still enough to make the level of naval expansion seen in OTL politically impossible.

The war in Europe goes on as OTL, and eventualy the secret war in the North Atlantic draws the US into the fray. US-Japanese tensions remain low, however, so there is no trade embargo and no fleet at Pearl. Eventually, strong lobbying and don't-miss-the-bus-ism (TM) combine to convince the powers that be to seize the Southern Resoure Area while the Western Colonial Powers are distracted by the war in Europe. At least at first, the Japanese leave American possesions alone. The US is forced to declare war on Japan, as all its allies in the European War are also at war with Japan. However, the US public largely views this part of the conflict as a squabble over imperial holdings, and the moral outrage seen OTL does not exist.

Japan quickly conquers the areas it targets, but soon after the US begins slowly but surely destroying the IJN. Soon Japan can no longer resupply its forces in the field, but the Allies are not eager to root out the IJA island by island. The stage is set for a negiotated peace. As an aggressor nation, Japan must be punished, but already some are calling for liency. Allied capitols are filled with worried talk about the strength the USSR is set to have in the post-war world, and Japan could be a vauble ally...

In the end, Japan returns all newly captured territory, plus most of the mandate islands go to the US. Manchuria and the Kwantung Leased Territory go to China, but Japan retains Taiwan, Karafuto, and Chosen.

Comments/critiques?

[Desmond Hume]

Sounds plausible to this non-expert. One interesting butterfly from this could be that Korea would still be a major *Cold War flashpoint. If the Chinese Nationalists ally with the Soviets (not impossible; IIRC they had friendly contacts in the '20s) the Eastern allies could supply anti-Japanese guerillas in Korea very easily. We might see Americans fighting in Korea yet.

[Dan1988]

Hmm, this might be a wild POD that would border on ASB, but what if the 228 Incident went even worse than OTL, and one of the key demands of the protestors was to return to Japanese rule?

[Paladin]

One way I've seen this done was have the 1939 border skirmish with the USSR turn into a full blown war, at which point the Japanese loose Manchuria and Korea. However, they keep the rest of the Empire. The Militant Nationalists are completely discredited and thrown out of power, and the army withdrawn from China to deal with more pressing matters. With no Sino-Japanese war and no militants, the Pacific War never happens, and Japan quickly realizes the benefit of a healthy ROC to keep the Russians at bay. So they end up keeping Formosa till the 1960s, I think. Good TL, if a little wankish and pointless anti-American at times.

[mcdo]

Hmm, this might be a wild POD that would border on ASB, but what if the 228 Incident went even worse than OTL, and one of the key demands of the protestors was to return to Japanese rule?

I didn't think of that one. It's probably true that the 228 Incident created some nostalgia for Japanese rule in the minds of many Taiwanese, justified or not. At least some people viewed the very harsh yet orderly rule of Japan as preferable to the corruption that seemed so common in the early days of KMT rule. Nonetheless, the movement was mainly asking for more autonomy, and only after it became clear that the KMT was not about to reform that many people began to seek independence. I have not heard of any movement advocating a return to Japanese rule, though.

Obviously, the KMT is not going to give up the island if they can help it, and definitely not to Japan so shortly after the war. Even if the Taiwanese managed to force the KMT off-island, the Japanese were in no position to come restore peace in '47. Maybe if both Taiwan and Japan were facing aggressive, common enemies (Sino-Soviet Alliance?), then the two could grow closer over time. It would probably just be a close alliance at best.